Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “time service”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors in Africa

This report assesses the feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors, including large-scale plants, advanced small modular reactors (SMRs), and microreactors, in African countries. Case studies focus on South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria, examining nuclear energy’s role in Africa’s rapidly evolving energy landscape, marked by fast-growing demand, significant electricity access gaps, increasing renewable penetration, and strong policy commitments to industrialization and energy security. Several U.S. reactor technologies and designs are considered based on their development status and readiness for deployment. The analysis finds that nuclear power can provide reliable, clean baseload and flexible generation, as well as high-temperature process heat for desalination, hydrogen production, and industrial applications. However, suitability is highly country-specific, depending on grid size and stability, transmission capacity, cooling water availability, regulatory readiness, and fuel supply chains. Near-term deployment opportunities are strongest for light-water reactors (such as NuScale, BWRX-300, AP300, and SMR-300) that use low-enriched uranium and build on proven technology. More advanced concepts, including gas-cooled, sodium-cooled, molten-salt cooled reactors, and microreactors, will likely be relevant for African deployment in the 2030s or later, contingent on demonstration projects, high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel availability, and mature international licensing frameworks. Economic analysis shows that SMRs are capital-intensive, with projected overnight costs for 300 MWe units in 2025 ranging from approximately 1.4 to 2.6 billion USD per module. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is highly sensitive to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Given typically higher financing costs and utility balance-sheet weaknesses in many African countries, bankable project structures will require sovereign guarantees, robust offtake arrangements, and layered financing from export credit agencies, development finance institutions, and vendor nations. Comparisons with recent large nuclear projects in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt underscore the central role of state-backed loans, long tenors, and concessional terms. Country case studies illustrate a spectrum of readiness and opportunity. South Africa operates two 920 MWe pressurized light water reactors (totaling 1,840 MWe) at Koeberg and has the most mature regulatory and industrial base, positioning it as a prime candidate for both large reactors and SMRs to replace coal, support desalination, and anchor industrial hubs. Egypt is constructing four VVER-1200 units at El Dabaa with strong state leadership and could later complement this fleet with SMRs for coastal and industrial applications. Kenya and Ghana are advancing through IAEA Milestones with growing institutional capacity and clear interest in SMRs that match their smaller grids and industrialization plans. Nigeria has the largest demand potential but faces acute constraints in grid reliability, project bankability, and regulatory capacity; targeted deployments of large reactors and SMRs near coastal or industrial sites could have high impact if accompanied by major grid upgrades and institutional reforms. The report identifies cross-cutting challenges such as financing, political continuity, public acceptance, nonproliferation and security, waste and back-end management, regulatory capacity, grid adequacy, and long deployment timelines for first-of-a-kind designs, and ANL/NSE-26/3 ii proposes broad directions for resolution. These include stronger multifaceted financing for nuclear, long-term national energy strategies that transcend electoral cycles, proactive stakeholder engagement, strengthened regional and national regulators, and systematic workforce development through centers of excellence and expanded training. The United States should develop partnerships with African countries and offer end-to-end nuclear package similar to those used effectively by competitors: coordinated project development, state-backed financing, long-term fuel services, and durable in-country support through regional offices and sustained workforce/regulatory training. With timely planning, sustained political commitment, and appropriate financing and institutional support, nuclear energy, both large reactors and advanced SMRs, can become a meaningful, though not dominant, pillar of Africa’s future power mix, enhancing energy security, enabling industrial growth, and supporting climate goals.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quinones having high capacity retention for use as electrolytes in aqueous redox flow batteries

We disclose quinone compounds and related species (Formula I) that possess significant advantages when used as a redox active material in a battery, e.g., a redox flow battery. In particular, the compounds provide redox flow batteries (RFBs) with extremely high capacity retention. For example, RFBs of the invention can be cycled for 500 times with negligible loss of capacity, and such batteries could be employed for years of service. Thus, the invention provides a high efficiency, long cycle life redox flow battery with reasonable power cost, low energy cost, and all the energy scaling advantages of a flow battery.

Aziz, Michael J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

An active learning framework for the rapid assessment of galvanic corrosion

The current present in a galvanic couple can define its resistance or susceptibility to corrosion. However, as the current is dependent upon environmental, material, and geometrical parameters it is experimentally costly to measure. To reduce these costs, Finite Element (FE) simulations can be used to assess the cathodic current but also require experimental inputs to define boundary conditions. Due to these challenges, it is crucial to accelerate predictions and accurately predict the current output for different environments and geometries representative of in-service conditions. Machine learned surrogate models provides a means to accelerate corrosion predictions. However, a one-time cost is incurred in procuring the simulation and experimental dataset necessary to calibrate the surrogate model. Therefore, an active learning protocol is developed through calibration of a low-cost surrogate model for the cathodic current of an exemplar galvanic couple (AA7075-SS304) as a function of environmental and geometric parameters. The surrogate model is calibrated on a dataset of FE simulations, and calculates an acquisition function that identifies specific additional inputs with the maximum potential to improve the current predictions. This is accomplished through a staggered workflow that not only improves and refines prediction, but identifies the points at which the most information is gained, thus enabling expansion to a larger parameter space. The protocols developed and demonstrated in this work provide a powerful tool for screening various forms of corrosion under in-service conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Grid Modernization of Cooperatives and Municipal Utilities via Breakthrough System Monitoring, Control and Optimization (CRADA Final Report)

This project aims at developing and demonstrating successful implementation of breakthrough approaches in real-time data visualization as well as real-time distributed DER control and optimization to provide ample benefits to both utilities and end users. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Holy Cross Energy (HCE), National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA) and Survalent are collaborating to enable Cooperative and Municipal utilities to fully leverage DERs as part of their strategies for providing safe, reliable, and affordable electric services to their customers and help meet DOE Grid modernization goal of achieving at least 10% active devices to provide grid flexibility by 2035. This project will use novel real-time control algorithms and approaches for distributed control recently developed under DOE-funded projects, using the date from the Survalent’s basic SCADA engine, GIS and AMI engines deployed at HCE combined with NRECA’s globally-used MultiSpeak(R) software interoperability specification for seamless and real-time communications between electric utility enterprise software to embrace DER as part of their strategies for providing safe, reliable and affordable electric service to their customers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust bidding strategy for aggregation of distributed prosumers in flexiramp market

Distributed prosumers (DPs) are the grid customers that own energy production/storage assets. Due to the flexibility and fast response of their assets, they can procure ancillary service products (ASP) in the wholesale market. An appealing ASP offered by California ISO in the real-time market (RTM) is flexiramp for which market participants do not submit direct offers, and the compensation is based on their energy opportunity costs. Here in this report, we propose a bidding strategy model for DP aggregator participation in the RTM considering energy and flexiramp. First, we develop a risk-averse optimization to determine the optimal energy and reserve product to trade in day-ahead market while considering proper amounts of flexiramp to trade in the RTM. In the RTM, to obtain optimal amounts of energy and flexiramp, the aggregator must submit hourly multi-level price-quantity energy bids for multiple RTM intervals with 15 min time-steps. On this basis, we propose a robust hourly economic bidding strategy model that determines the optimal energy bids in the RTM. We develop an adjustable robust counterpart of the model to address the RTM energy and flexiramp price uncertainties. The simulation results justify the efficacy of our proposed framework in gaining profits from the wholesale market.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

PV O&M Cost Model [SWR-21-14]

This tool presents a method for calculating costs associated with the operation and maintenance (O&M) of photovoltaic (PV) systems. The tool compiles details regarding the cost and frequency of multiple O&M services to estimate annual O&M costs ($/year) for each year of an analysis period, the net present value ($) of life cycle costs accumulated over the analysis period, and the reserve account amount ($) that might be required to fund unexpected repairs. The reserve account includes parts inventory and is important for providing a source of funds to make repairs quickly and avoid lost production. This method allows a detailed selection of services to perform based on system size, market served (e.g., residential, commercial, or utility), type and configuration of system components (e.g., micro-, string, or central inverter), and site and environmental conditions (e.g., pollen, bird populations) which is an improvement over simple per unit valuations of O&M costs ($/kW/year). This model also distinguishes costs that vary from year to year and increase at different rates over time as modeled by heuristic failure distributions (e.g., Weibull or Lognormal distribution) based on actuarial data for many of the services.

Walker, Andy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Liquid Salt Combined-Cycle Pilot Plant Design

The work described in this report is responsive to the Office of Fossil Energy program ‘Energy Storage for Fossil Power Generation.’ This Phase I report has been prepared by Pintail Power LLC, with support from Nexant ECA, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and Southern Company Services as a deliverable for the U.S. Department of Energy for NETL Award DE-FE-00320016. The Liquid Salt Combined Cycle™ (LSCC™) technology provides large-scale energy storage integrated with Fossil Electric Generating Units (FEGUs) to meet critical needs in the energy transition by providing: • the lowest cost large-scale storage for time-shifting of renewable energy, • superior fuel efficiency to reduce GHGs from dispatchable resources, • flexible capacity and ramping to balance variability of wind and solar resources, • essential grid stability services to assure reliability of a low-carbon grid. The LSCC approach: • employs equipment that has already been proven in utility service, • uses safe, non-toxic, non-degrading, perpetual-life storage medium, • leverages and repurposes existing FEGU assets, • expands the value stack of energy storage to reduce market, financing, and commodity risks. Pintail Power has developed the LSCC technology to meet the need for reliable, efficient, and cost-effective integration of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) into a low-carbon electric grid by coupling proven thermal energy storage with proven gas turbines, steam turbines, and heat transfer equipment. This novel approach is intended to address the key issues facing the grid and operators of renewable and fossil generating units including: • Overgeneration and curtailment of renewables, • Need for fast ramping dispatchable resources, • Improved efficiency and flexibility of fossil units, • Additional peaking capacity to support electrification of transportation and heating, • Provision of reliability services to support high penetration of VRE, especially synchronous inertia and fast frequency response. A Technology Readiness assessment by EPRI confirmed that LSCC technology consists of commercially proven hardware used in industrial and utility applications. Although the novel LSCC approach has not yet been demonstrated as a complete system, interfaces between major components have been conservatively specified. A Phase III pilot is planned to demonstrate equipment integration and operation. The patented innovation is removal of the evaporator section from the exhaust heat recovery system, with the evaporation performed by stored energy in a separate steam generator. This arrangement couples renewable and fossil power generation via long-duration energy storage to deliver cost, performance, and operational synergies, including superior charging and discharging flexibility, reduced fuel consumption and lower CO 2 emissions compared to conventional Combined Cycle Power Plants, and low-cost, large-scale energy storage. The LSCC technology is composed of proven equipment integrated with gas turbine exhaust heat in a novel system. During charging, electric heaters raise the salt temperature as it flows from the Cold Salt Tank to the Hot Salt Tank. During discharging, hot salt produces steam from feedwater that is heated with gas turbine exhaust, which also superheats steam to drive a steam turbine. LSCC technology can be added to any combustion-turbine to integrate renewable energy, provide needed grid services, and increase the value of fossil electric generating units based on the technology’s following attributes: • Long-duration storage enables time-shifting of VRE to avoid curtailment and impairment of renewable assets. • Long storage duration combined with fast-charging capability increases arbitrage opportunities by storing more energy when the price is low and discharging more hours when the price is high. • Long storage duration allows resource adequacy to be supplied across multiple days to increase reliability and reduce risk. • The stored energy reduces fuel heat rate and GHG emissions, and increases merit, so the LSCC dispatches earlier and longer to increase the plant’s capacity factor and asset value. • The stored energy enables pre-heating and startup of the steam cycle, without operating the gas turbine, to enable fast startup and ramping when dispatched for discharge. • The steam turbine can operate without the gas turbine so it can provide valuable synchronous inertia during charging without consuming fuel. • Fast frequency response and regulation services can be provided during charging using solid-state heater and pump controls to vary the charge power input in response to grid signals. • The LSCC system can be configured for resilience including black start, islanded/micro-grid operation, and even self-recharging of storage using either gas turbine power or gas turbine exhaust heat. The commercialization plan is to add LSCC technology to existing simple cycle gas turbine power plants with the 50MW GE LM6000 aero-derivative gas turbine as the reference design basis. A Techno-economic assessment of the reference design evaluated the benefits (Levelized Avoided Cost of Energy) and costs (Levelized Cost of Energy). The plant definition included all major systems and budgetary vendor quotes. Pintail Power and NexantECA developed the overall cost estimate for the LSCC plant up to the total plant cost level, following the DOE-NETL cost estimate guidelines at AACE Class 3 (-20%/+30%). This includes the equipment cost, bulk material, direct and indirect labor costs to arrive at the bare erected cost. Engineering costs are factored from the BEC and added to it to arrive at the EPC cost. Process and project contingencies were then factored from the EPC cost and rolled-up to yield the total plant cost of $\$$184 million for 1746 MWh of discharge electricity. • At $\$$105/kWh, the reference plant costs less than any of the Energy Storage Systems evaluated by PNNL in 2020 for the Energy Storage Grand Challenge. Operations and Maintenance cost estimates were scaled from combined cycle practice, assuming that the LSCC unit was co-located with and sharing some labor expense with other units, to arrive at $\$$2.2 million per year. Plant economics were evaluated using prices from the ERCOT Day-Ahead Market for calendar year 2019 (excluding the market disruptions from the COVID pandemic and the February 2020 deep freeze event). Assuming economic dispatch in the ERCOT Day-Ahead market, the reference plant capacity factor would have discharged for 2777 hours at 91.9 MW, a 31.66% capacity factor, with a marginal cost of $\$$25.59/MWh, and a LACE of $\$$82.41/MWh. Fixed charges were calculated according to EIA guidelines to arrive at an LCOE of $\$$83.48. The benefit-to-cost ratio of 0.99 suggests that the reference plant would have been cost-effective and competitive in the market. EPRI interviewed selected utilities to gauge the need for, applicability of and interest in the LSCC system. Several utilities are currently managing increased load growth along with the inclusion of increasing levels of renewable generation, putting pressure on conventional generation by requiring increased turndown requirements and ultimately lower capacity factors. All of the utilities interviewed have CO 2 reduction targets in the 2030-2050 timeframe that will severely limit the participation of fossil generation and require better utilization of carbon free generation. While there is limited opportunity for storage in the current markets, the utilities interviewed stated that there will be a substantial need for long duration energy storage in the future given the expected trends. Utilizing an energy storage system will generally be preferred over new gas capacity in some cases, with the capabilities of the LSCC system being a potential option for retrofit to existing simple cycle gas turbine units, allowing them to deliver greater participation in the market with lower carbon intensity. A technology gap assessment and technology maturation plan identified a pilot-scale demonstration as the final step before commercialization. Key gaps to be addressed during the Phase II FEED (Front-End Engineering Design) are component selection and design, commissioning procedures, and operational procedures and the control system for LSCC charging and discharging. The project team has been expanded to include Wood Group PLC as EPC. The proposed Phase II work leads to a pilot-scale engineering demonstration (TRL 6) to be conducted at Southern Company’s Plant Rowan, where the prototype system will perform “all the functions that will be required of the operational system.” The proposed pilot will facilitate commercialization (TRL-9) by scale-up to utility-scale systems integrated with peaking GTs or directly to facility scale systems using industrial GTs. The conceptual design for the pilot plant focuses on the novel integration aspects of LSCC technology. A slipstream of gas turbine exhaust will feed a waste heat recovery unit coupled to a molten salt steam generator heated by stored energy. The pilot is intended to demonstrate all key operating modes of the LSCC technology during charging, discharging and standby. The pilot equipment will be approximately one-seventh scale of the LM6000 commercial target and is expected to have commercial off-ramp potential for facility-scale applications.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hardware-accelerated inference for real-time gravitational-wave astronomy

The field of transient astronomy has seen a revolution with the first gravitational-wave detections and the arrival of multi-messenger observations they enabled. Transformed by the first detection of binary black hole and binary neutron star mergers, computational demands in gravitational-wave astronomy are expected to grow by at least a factor of two over the next five years as the global network of kilometer-scale interferometers are brought to design sensitivity. With the increase in detector sensitivity, real-time delivery of gravitational-wave alerts will become increasingly important as an enabler of multi-messenger followup. In this work, we report a novel implementation and deployment of deep learning inference for real-time gravitational-wave data denoising and astrophysical source identification. This is accomplished using a generic Inference-as-a-Service model that is capable of adapting to the future needs of gravitational-wave data analysis. Overall, our implementation allows seamless incorporation of hardware accelerators and also enables the use of commercial or private (dedicated) as-a-service computing. Based on our results, we propose a paradigm shift in low-latency and offline computing in gravitational-wave astronomy. Such a shift can address key challenges in peak-usage, scalability and reliability, and provide a data analysis platform particularly optimized for deep learning applications. The achieved sub-millisecond scale latency will also be relevant for any machine learning-based real-time control systems that may be invoked in the operation of near-future and next generation ground-based laser interferometers, as well as the front-end collection, distribution and processing of data from such instruments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Track reconstruction as a service for collider physics

Optimizing charged-particle track reconstruction algorithms is crucial for efficient event reconstruction in Large Hadron Collider (LHC) experiments due to their significant computational demands. Existing track reconstruction algorithms have been adapted to run on massively parallel coprocessors, such as graphics processing units (GPUs), to reduce processing time. Nevertheless, challenges remain in fully harnessing the computational capacity of coprocessors in a scalable and non-disruptive manner. This paper proposes an inference-as-a-service approach for particle tracking in high energy physics experiments. To evaluate the efficacy of this approach, two distinct tracking algorithms are tested: Patatrack, a rule-based algorithm, and Exa.TrkX, a machine learning-based algorithm. The as-a-service implementations show enhanced GPU utilization and can process requests from multiple CPU cores concurrently without increasing per-request latency. The impact of data transfer is minimal and insignificant compared to running on local coprocessors. This approach greatly improves the computational efficiency of charged particle tracking, providing a solution to the computing challenges anticipated in the High-Luminosity LHC era.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Real-time optimization of multi-cell industrial evaporative cooling towers using machine learning and particle swarm optimization

Existing electrical generating stations must operate with greater flexibility due to increasing renewable energy penetration on the electrical grid, and many coal-fired power stations have transitioned away from baseload operation to load-following operation to aid in grid stability. In cases where multiple independently controlled cooling tower cells are used in parallel for the cooling purposes of such stations, there is an opportunity to increase plant efficiency through data-driven optimization across their full load ranges. This work presents a novel application of real-time optimization using machine learning and particle swarm optimization on a multi-cell induced-draft cooling tower servicing a coal-fired power station under variable load. This is the first work to demonstrate simultaneous optimization of a multi-cell cooling tower, in addition to using machine learning for closed-loop control on a cooling tower. A novel control configuration is presented that ensures original control logic is not adversely affected and that the overall plant process is not disrupted using only existing hardware and operational data. To verify this methodology, the 12 independent cooling tower cells are simulated in parallel using historic operating data to demonstrate the effectiveness of real-time optimization compared to current practice. An artificial neural network is trained to predict overall cooling tower power consumption using only operational data and ambient conditions with an R2 value of greater than 0.96. The real-time optimization using particle swarm yields 6.7% annual energy usage savings compared to current practices, although the extent of the real-time savings varies greatly with both plant load and environmental conditions. This is particularly significant for a variable load situation because frequent ramping typically results in reduced overall efficiency. Furthermore, this proposed AI-based solution presents an opportunity to improve the overall heat rate of a load-following coal-fired power plant without the need to perform extensive first-principles modeling or add additional hardware to the cooling tower, resulting in more resources conserved and less overall emissions per unit of electricity generated.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Lignin molecular weights of Populus trichocarpa residues after CELF pretreatment

Here we present a dataset of molecular weights of lignin from a woody energy crop (Populus trichocarpa) residues after a series of co-solvent enhanced lignocellulosic fractionation (CELF) pretreatment. The natural poplar variant GW-9947 from the Center for Bioenergy Innovation (CBI) was used. The poplar was knife milled and passed through a 1 mm sieve and CELF pretreatment was performed in a Parr autoclave reactor with 7.5 wt % solids loading, 0.5 wt% H2SO4 as catalyst at 150°C with various time. Tetrahydrofuran was added in a 1:1 mass ratio with water as the pretreatment solvent. Lignin was isolated from the pretreated samples after ball-milling in a porcelain jar with ceramic balls via Retsch PM 200 at 580 rpm for 2.5 h followed by enzymatic hydrolysis in acetate buffer (pH 4.8, 50 °C) for 48 h. The solid residue was isolated by centrifugation and hydrolyzed again with freshly added buffer and enzymes for another 48 h. After filtration, the solid residue was extracted twice with 96% (v/v) 1,4-dioxane/water mixture at room temperature overnight. The extracts were combined, rotary evaporated, and freeze-dried to recover lignin. The lignin samples were then derivatized in an acetic anhydride/pyridine (1:1, v/v) mixture and stirred at room temperature for 24 h. Ethanol was added to the reaction mixture, left for 30 min and then removed with a rotary evaporator. The addition and removal of ethanol was repeated at least 3 times until all traces of acetic acid were removed. Acetylated lignin samples were then dissolved in tetrahydrofuran (THF) at a concentration of 1.0 mg/mL. The molecular weight of acetylated lignin was measured by a gel permeation chromatography (GPC) on a PSS-Polymer Standards Service (Warwick, RI, USA) GPC SECurity 1200 system featuring Agilent HPLC 1200 components equipped with four Waters Styragel columns (HR1, HR2, HR4 and HR6) and an UV detector (270 nm). Tetrahydrofuran was used as the mobile phase and flow rate was 0.3 mL/min. The Polymer Standards Service WinGPC Unity software (Build 6807) was used for data processing for all the samples. The data provides information about the effects of CELF pretreatment time at 150 ºC on lignin molecular weights.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

SunLine Transit Agency Fuel Cell Electric Bus Progress Report (Data Period Focus Jan-Jun 2020) [Slides]

This report presents early results from a deployment of fuel cell electric buses (FCEBs) operated by SunLine Transit Agency in the Coachella Valley area of California. The five FCEBs, produced by New Flyer, feature an electric drive propulsion system powered by a Ballard fuel cell system. The project team is collaborating with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate the buses in revenue service. The goal of this evaluation is to compare the FCEB performance to that of conventional technology and to track progress over time toward meeting the technical targets set by DOE and the Department of Transportation (DOT). The FCEBs were delivered beginning in mid-2019. The data period covers January 2020 through July 2020. NREL collects data on five 2019 model year compressed natural gas (CNG) buses as a baseline comparison at SunLine. These new CNG buses were phased into service beginning in April 2020.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

SunLine Transit Agency Fuel Cell Electric Bus Progress Report - Data Period Focus: Jan. 2020 through Dec. 2021 [Slides]

This report presents early results from a deployment of fuel cell electric buses (FCEBs) operated by SunLine Transit Agency in the Coachella Valley area of California. The five FCEBs, produced by New Flyer, feature an electric drive propulsion system powered by a Ballard fuel cell system. The project team is collaborating with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate the buses in revenue service. The goal of this evaluation is to compare the FCEB performance to that of conventional technology and to track progress over time toward meeting the technical targets set by DOE and the Department of Transportation (DOT). The FCEBs were delivered beginning in mid-2019. The data period covers January 2020 through December 2021. NREL collects data on five 2019 model year compressed natural gas (CNG) buses as a baseline comparison at SunLine. These new CNG buses were phased into service beginning in April 2020.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

The impact of autonomous vehicles on commute ridesharing with uncertain work end time

The uncertainty in work end time can prevent ridesharing between two commuters with identical home and work locations. This effect can be alleviated by autonomous vehicles (AV): when two commuters share a ride from home to work, if the realized work end times result in a long wait between the two, an additional AV can be easily repositioned from home to work, whereas with regular human-driven vehicles one has to either bear the long wait or request expensive taxi service. This observation implies that AVs have great potential for increasing commute ridesharing. To study this effect, we develop evening commute bottleneck models with uncertain work end time and establish mode choice equilibrium for the round-trip commute. We find that, with regular vehicles, because of the expected waiting cost caused by work end time uncertainty, commuters typically do not share rides even though they have the same home and work locations. With AVs, commuters always share rides for the morning commute, and they also share rides for the evening commute if their work end times turn out to be close; otherwise, they reposition an additional AV to pick one of them up. Finally, our numerical examples show that AVs can encourage commute ridesharing and significantly reduce the expected round-trip travel costs for commuters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Algebraic Derivative Estimation for Battery Electric Buses Energy Consumption Forecasting

The limited service life of onboard batteries for EVs is a challenge, underscoring the need for real-time battery usage prediction. This paper proposes an adaptive Algebraic Derivative Estimation (ADE) approach for forecasting the energy consumption of battery electric buses. By dynamically adjusting the sliding window length, the adaptive ADE retains the fixed-length ADE’s key advantage—namely, operating online without reliance on extensive historical datasets—while substantially bolstering forecast accuracy by actively trading estimation bias off estimation variance. Comparative experiments against both the conventional ADE with a fixed length and a representative machine learning algorithm, XGBoost, were conducted, with performance evaluated via root mean square error, mean absolute error, and the coefficient of determination. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly outperforms baseline methods.

Cui, Tianyang [The University of Texas at Dallas]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Conserving asphalt resources: Rethinking rejuvenator performance evaluation through peptizing efficiency

Timely rejuvenation and restoration of asphalt are essential conservation practices that help preserve and extend the service life of roads, bridges, driveways, and parking lots. The performance of asphalt rejuvenators is often assessed based on their diffusion rates and softening power, yet these metrics alone fail to capture true rejuvenation potential. Here, this study integrates density functional theory (DFT) modeling with experimental analysis to show that rejuvenation effectiveness is primarily governed by molecular interactions with oxidized asphaltene nanoaggregates. DFT results revealed that amide- and unsaturated-chain compounds, such as hexadecanamide, oleic acid, and 9,17-octadecadienal, act cooperatively to disrupt π–π stacking and exfoliate asphaltene layers, reducing binding strength and enhancing dispersion. Unlike bulky, rigid molecules that remain trapped, these components remain mobile and repeatedly interact with multiple aggregation sites. Experimental validation using rheometry and FTIR confirmed that such molecularly compatible rejuvenators restore the binder flexibility and polydispersity, even when diffusion is relatively slow. Building on this mechanistic foundation, six rejuvenators (A2, A5, A7, A8, A9, and A10) were evaluated using a three-metric performance framework encompassing cracking resistance (Glover–Rowe parameter), UV stability, and surface hydrophobicity. Among the six rejuvenators evaluated, A9 exhibited the highest overall performance, reducing the Glover–Rowe cracking parameter by 85% (from 351 kPa to 53 kPa), demonstrating the greatest resistance to UV-induced aging with a stability index of 4.17 h·kPa⁻¹, and increasing surface hydrophobicity to a contact angle of 103.6°. Its superior performance is primarily attributed to its amide- and unsaturated-chain components, which act cooperatively to disrupt π–π stacking interactions and exfoliate asphaltene layers, thereby promoting molecular deagglomeration and enhancing long-term durability. These results shift the criteria for selecting rejuvenators: effective candidates must pair the electronic capability to unlock aged asphaltenes with sufficient structural stability to resist secondary aging and restore hydrophobicity. Restoring hydrophobicity is critical, as aging reduces the asphalt’s water repellency and increases water diffusion, which in turn accelerates moisture-related damage; consequently, a high-performing rejuvenator must effectively restore the binder’s hydrophobic characteristic. Collectively, these findings provide a framework for the rational design of next-generation of bio-based rejuvenators that enhance pavement longevity and promote long-term sustainability.

Aging↗