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At least 343 records · Page 19

Chaos in Kepler's Multiple Planet Systems and K2s Observations of the Atmospheres of Uranus Neptune

More than one-third of the 4700 planet candidates found by NASA's Kepler spacecraft during its prime mission are associated with target stars that have more than one planet candidate, and such "multis" account for the vast majority of candidates that have been verified as true planets. The large number of multis tells us that flat multiplanet systems like our Solar System are common. Virtually all of the candidate planetary systems are stable, as tested by numerical integrations that assume a physically motivated mass-radius relationship, but some of the systems lie in chaotic regions close to instability. The characteristics of some of the most interesting confirmed Kepler multi-planet systems will be discussed. The Kepler spacecraft's 'second life' in theK2 mission has allowed it to obtain long time-series observations of Solar System targets, including the giant planets Uranus & Neptune. These observations show variability caused by the chaotic weather patterns on Uranus & Neptune.

planet candidates↗

SU-F-J-58: Evaluation of RayStation Hybrid Deformable Image Registration for Accurate Contour Propagation in Adaptive Planning

Purpose: Adaptive radiotherapy requires complete new sets of regions of interests (ROIs) delineation on the mid-treatment CT images. This work aims at evaluating the accuracy of the RayStation hybrid deformable image registration (DIR) algorithm for its overall integrity and accuracy in contour propagation for adaptive planning. Methods: The hybrid DIR is based on the combination of intensity-based algorithm and anatomical information provided by contours. Patients who received mid-treatment CT scans were identified for the study, including six lung patients (two mid-treatment CTs) and six head-and-neck (HN) patients (one mid-treatment CT). DIRpropagated ROIs were compared with physician-drawn ROIs for 8 ITVs and 7 critical organs (lungs, heart, esophagus, and etc.) for the lung patients, as well as 14 GTVs and 20 critical organs (mandible, eyes, parotids, and etc.) for the HN patients. Volume difference, center of mass (COM) difference, and Dice index were used for evaluation. Clinical-relevance of each propagated ROI was scored by two physicians, and correlated with the Dice index. Results: For critical organs, good agreement (Dice>0.9) were seen on all 7 for lung patients and 13 out of 20 for HN patients, with the rest requiring minimal edits. For targets, COM differences were within 5 mm on average for all patients. For Lung, 5 out of 8 ITVs required minimal edits (Dice 0.8–0.9), with the rest 2 needed re-drawn due to their small volumes (<10 cc). However, the propagated HN GTVs resulted in relatively low Dice values (0.5–0.8) due to their small volumes (3–40 cc) and high variability, among which 2 required re-drawn due to new nodal target identified on the mid-treatment CT scans. Conclusion: The hybrid DIR algorithm was found to be clinically useful and efficient for lung and HN patients, especially for propagated critical organ ROIs. It has potential to significantly improve the workflow in adaptive planning.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A HIGH-PRECISION NEAR-INFRARED SURVEY FOR RADIAL VELOCITY VARIABLE LOW-MASS STARS USING CSHELL AND A METHANE GAS CELL

We present the results of a precise near-infrared (NIR) radial velocity (RV) survey of 32 low-mass stars with spectral types K2–M4 using CSHELL at the NASA InfraRed Telescope Facility in the K band with an isotopologue methane gas cell to achieve wavelength calibration and a novel, iterative RV extraction method. We surveyed 14 members of young (≈25–150 Myr) moving groups, the young field star ε Eridani, and 18 nearby (<25 pc) low-mass stars and achieved typical single-measurement precisions of 8–15 m s{sup −1}with a long-term stability of 15–50 m s{sup −1} over longer baselines. We obtain the best NIR RV constraints to date on 27 targets in our sample, 19 of which were never followed by high-precision RV surveys. Our results indicate that very active stars can display long-term RV variations as low as ∼25–50 m s{sup −1} at ≈2.3125 μ m, thus constraining the effect of jitter at these wavelengths. We provide the first multiwavelength confirmation of GJ 876 bc and independently retrieve orbital parameters consistent with previous studies. We recovered RV variabilities for HD 160934 AB and GJ 725 AB that are consistent with their known binary orbits, and nine other targets are candidate RV variables with a statistical significance of 3 σ –5 σ . Our method, combined with the new iSHELL spectrograph, will yield long-term RV precisions of ≲5 m s{sup −1} in the NIR, which will allow the detection of super-Earths near the habitable zone of mid-M dwarfs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Implications of a regional resource adequacy program on utility integrated resource planning: Study for the Western United States

LBNL collaborated with the Western Interstate Energy Board and the University of Texas, Austin to investigate the implications of a regional resource adequacy (RA) program on utility integrated resource planning. This report is focused on an active policy discussion to develop a novel voluntary program to share capacity resource and improve RA in the Western Interconnection. This report identifies two RA components of IRP that will be highly impacted by a regional RA program: resource capacity accreditation and RA targets. There are at least four resources that will require specific attention for their capacity credit calculation: (1) variable renewable resources, (2) demand-side resources, (3) hydropower, and (4) contracts. It will then be necessary to decide on a RA target reliability metric (e.g., a planning reserve margin) that is at least the minimum requirement in IRPs to ensure consistency in RA requirement calculations. The report finds that load forecasting and transmission expansion analyses will be moderately impacted, but that most of IRP components will not be significantly impacted. The report includes (i) a review of traditional resource adequacy practices in IRP; (ii) a case study of an existing regional RA program that interacts with IRP (Southwest Power Pool) and (iii) an overview of the NWPP regional resource adequacy proposal that is the object of this work. This paper does not (1) advocate for or against a regional RA program for the NWPP, (2) make detailed design recommendations for this program, or (3) assess its benefits and costs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Fully synthetic platform to rapidly generate tetravalent bispecific nanobody–based immunoglobulins

Nanobodies bind a target antigen with a kinetic profile similar to a conventional antibody, but exist as a single heavy chain domain that can be readily multimerized to engage antigen via multiple interactions. Presently, most nanobodies are produced by immunizing camelids; however, platforms for animal-free production are growing in popularity. Here, we describe the development of a fully synthetic nanobody library based on an engineered human V H 3-23 variable gene and a multispecific antibody-like format designed for biparatopic target engagement. To validate our library, we selected nanobodies against the SARS-CoV-2 receptor–binding domain and employed an on-yeast epitope binning strategy to rapidly map the specificities of the selected nanobodies. We then generated antibody-like molecules by replacing the V H and V L domains of a conventional antibody with two different nanobodies, designed as a molecular clamp to engage the receptor-binding domain biparatopically. The resulting bispecific tetra-nanobody immunoglobulins neutralized diverse SARS-CoV-2 variants with potencies similar to antibodies isolated from convalescent donors. Subsequent biochemical analyses confirmed the accuracy of the on-yeast epitope binning and structures of both individual nanobodies, and a tetra-nanobody immunoglobulin revealed that the intended mode of interaction had been achieved. This overall workflow is applicable to nearly any protein target and provides a blueprint for a modular workflow for the development of multispecific molecules.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Parameterizations of the Vertical Variability of Tropical Cirrus Cloud Microphysical and Optical Properties

Our multi-investigator effort was targeted at the following areas of interest to CRYSTAL-FACE: (1) the water budgets of anvils, (2) parameterizations of the particle size distributions and related microphysical and optical properties (3) characterizations of the primary ice particle habits, (4) the relationship of the optical properties to the microphysics and particle habits, and (5) investigation of the ice-nuclei types and mechanisms in anvil cirrus. Dr. Twohy's effort focused on (l), (2), and (5), with the measurement and analysis of ice water content and cirrus residual nuclei using the counterflow virtual impactor (CVI).

Twohy, Cynthia↗

A Germline-Targeting Chimpanzee SIV Envelope Glycoprotein Elicits a New Class of V2-Apex Directed Cross-Neutralizing Antibodies

HIV-1 and its SIV precursors share a broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) epitope in variable loop 2 (V2) at the envelope glycoprotein (Env) trimer apex. Here, we tested the immunogenicity of germ line-targeting versions of a chimpanzee SIV (SIVcpz) Env in human V2-apex bNAb heavy-chain precursor-expressing knock-in mice and as chimeric simian-chimpanzee immunodeficiency viruses (SCIVs) in rhesus macaques (RMs). Trimer immunization of knock-in mice induced V2-directed NAbs, indicating activation of V2-apex bNAb precursor-expressing mouse B cells. SCIV infection of RMs elicited high-titer viremia, potent autologous tier 2 neutralizing antibodies, and rapid sequence escape in the canonical V2-apex epitope. Six of seven animals also developed low-titer heterologous plasma breadth that mapped to the V2-apex. Antibody cloning from two of these animals identified multiple expanded lineages with long heavy chain third complementarity determining regions that cross-neutralized as many as 7 of 19 primary HIV-1 strains, but with low potency. Negative stain electron microscopy (NSEM) of members of the two most cross-reactive lineages confirmed V2 targeting but identified an angle of approach distinct from prototypical V2-apex bNAbs, with antibody binding either requiring or inducing an occluded-open trimer. Probing with conformation-sensitive, nonneutralizing antibodies revealed that SCIV-expressed, but not wild-type SIVcpz Envs, as well as a subset of primary HIV-1 Envs, preferentially adopted a more open trimeric state. These results reveal the existence of a cryptic V2 epitope that is exposed in occluded-open SIVcpz and HIV-1 Env trimers and elicits cross-neutralizing responses of limited breadth and potency.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Relevance of E × B drifts for particle and heat transport in divertors

Radial electric fields up to ~4 kV m –1 are observed in the boundary between the private flux region (PFR) and the scrape-off layer (SOL) driving E × B drifts between the inner and outer targets at speeds up to 2.8 km s –1 in the Tokamak à configuration variable divertor. The resulting E × B fluxes, located in a narrow region ($\Delta {\rho _\Psi } < 0.012$ in normalized radius or $\Delta $ R – R sep <4 mm mapped to the outer midplane) are equivalent to around 20% of the total heat and particle flux to the divertor targets (inner + outer). At the peak E r , the E × B poloidal transport is equivalent to parallel flows with M ∥ ~ 3. In the snowflake divertor with a second X-point in the outer SOL, the drifts in the PFR-SOL boundary were equivalent to around 30% of the total heat and particle flux to the divertor targets and cover a region ~50% wider than in the single null ($\Delta {\rho _\Psi }$ ~ 0.018, $\Delta $R – R sep ~ 6 mm). Furthermore, the location of the PFR-SOL boundary drift shifts radially in the E ∥ × B direction when reversing the toroidal field direction. Peaks in density and electron pressure have been identified near the primary X-point along with large gradients in density, temperature, and potential, the latter resulting in a local electric field ~2.7 kV m –1 which drives a drift (1.9 km s –1 ) upwards towards the closed flux surfaces. Floating potential (V f ) magnitudes up to 75 V (~2 kT e ) were measured, indicating that V f and parallel currents should not be neglected when estimating plasma potential.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A matched-filter approach to radio variability and transients: searching for orphan afterglows in the VAST Pilot Survey

Radio transient searches using traditional variability metrics struggle to recover sources whose evolution time-scale is significantly longer than the survey cadence. Motivated by the recent observations of slowly evolving radio afterglows at gigahertz frequency, we present the results of a search for radio variables and transients using an alternative matched-filter approach. We designed our matched-filter to recover sources with radio light curves that have a high-significance fit to power-law and smoothly broken power-law functions; light curves following these functions are characteristic of synchrotron transients, including ‘orphan’ gamma-ray burst afterglows, which were the primary targets of our search. Applying this matched-filter approach to data from Variables and Slow Transients Pilot Survey conducted using the Australian SKA Pathfinder, we produced five candidates in our search. Subsequent Australia Telescope Compact Array observations and analysis revealed that: one is likely a synchrotron transient; one is likely a flaring active galactic nucleus, exhibiting a flat-to-steep spectral transition over 4 months; one is associated with a starburst galaxy, with the radio emission originating from either star formation or an underlying slowly evolving transient; and the remaining two are likely extrinsic variables caused by interstellar scintillation. The synchrotron transient, VAST J175036.1–181454, has a multifrequency light curve, peak spectral luminosity, and volumetric rate that is consistent with both an off-axis afterglow and an off-axis tidal disruption event; interpreted as an off-axis afterglow would imply an average inverse beaming factor $\langle f^{-1}_{\text{b}} \rangle = 860^{+1980}_{-710}$, or equivalently, an average jet opening angle of $\langle \theta _{\textrm {j}} \rangle = 3^{+4}_{-1}\,$ deg.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Synthetic aperture radar operator tactical target acquisition research

A radar target acquisition research study was conducted to access the effects of two levels of 13 radar sensor, display, and mission parameters on operator tactical target acquisition. A saturated fractional-factorial screening design was employed to examine these parameters. Data analysis computed ETA squared values for main and second-order effects for the variables tested. Ranking of the research parameters in terms of importance to system design revealed four variables (radar coverage, radar resolution/multiple looks, display resolution, and display size) accounted for 50 percent of the target acquisition probability variance.

Hershberger, M. L.↗

Contribution of citizen science towards international biodiversity monitoring

To meet collective obligations towards biodiversity conservation and monitoring, it is essential that the world's governments and non-governmental organisations as well as the research community tap all possible sources of data and information, including new, fast-growing sources such as citizen science (CS), in which volunteers participate in some or all aspects of environmental assessments. Through compilation of a database on CS and community-based monitoring (CBM, a subset of CS) programs, we assess where contributions from CS and CBM are significant and where opportunities for growth exist. We use the Essential Biodiversity Variable framework to describe the range of biodiversity data needed to track progress towards global biodiversity targets, and we assess strengths and gaps in geographical and taxonomic coverage. Our results show that existing CS and CBM data particularly provide large-scale data on species distribution and population abundance, species traits such as phenology, and ecosystem function variables such as primary and secondary productivity. Only birds, Lepidoptera and plants are monitored at scale. Most CS schemes are found in Europe, North America, South Africa, India, and Australia. We then explore what can be learned from successful CS/CBM programs that would facilitate the scaling up of current efforts, how existing strengths in data coverage can be better exploited, and the strategies that could maximise the synergies between CS/CBM and other approaches for monitoring biodiversity, in particular from remote sensing. More and better targeted funding will be needed, if CS/CBM programs are to contribute further to international biodiversity monitoring.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

On the Linearity of Local and Regional Temperature Changes from 1.5°C to 2°C of Global Warming

Because of the Paris Agreement it is imperative there is greater understanding of the consequences of limiting global warming to the target 1.5° and 2°C levels above preindustrial conditions. It is challenging to quantify changes across a small increment of global warming, so a pattern-scaling approach may be considered. Here we investigate the validity of such an approach by comprehensively examining how well local temperatures and warming trends in a 1.5°C world predict local temperatures at global warming of 2°C. Ensembles of transient coupled climate simulations from multiple models under different scenarios were compared and individual model responses were analyzed. For many places, the multimodel forced response of seasonal-average temperatures is approximately linear with global warming between 1.5° and 2°C. Yet, individual model results vary and large contributions from nonlinear changes in unforced variability or the forced response cannot be ruled out. In some regions, such as East Asia, models simulate substantially greater warming than is expected from linear scaling. Examining East Asia during boreal summer, we find that increased warming in the simulated 2°C world relative to scaling up from 1.5°C is related to reduced anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Our results indicate that, where forcings other than those due to greenhouse gas emissions change, the warming experienced in a 1.5°C world is a poor predictor for local climate at 2°C of global warming. In addition to the analysis of the linearity in the forced climate change signal, we find that natural variability remains a substantial contribution to uncertainty at these low-warming targets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of a Variable Facesheet Liner Configuration in Grazing Incidence for Broadband Noise Reduction

Abstract Tests were conducted in the NASA Langley Grazing Flow Impedance Tube (GFIT) to determine the broadband noise reduction capability of a variable facesheet liner. Three uniform liners were designed to achieve sound absorption over distinct frequency regimes at Mach 0.0. Each liner was fabricated and tested in the GFIT at sound pressure levels of 120 and 140 dB, and at tangential flow velocities up to Mach 0.5. A variable facesheet liner was fabricated to combine the geometries of these three liners, such that the facesheet geometry (hole diameter and porosity) was varied across the liner surface. The Prony method was used to educe the impedance of each sample, and these impedances were input to the CHE (Convected Helmholtz Equation) propagation code to predict the acoustic pressure profiles in the GFIT. Comparisons of predicted and measured acoustic pressure profiles were used to confirm the uniformity of all four liners, and to demonstrate the suitability of the CHE code in analysis of the variable facesheet concept. Results showed good comparison at no flow and Mach 0.3, and acceptable comparison at Mach 0.5. The variable facesheet liner provides enhanced broadband noise reduction at the no-flow condition for which it was designed, but further optimization is needed to target flow conditions.

acoustic↗

Evaluation of a Variable Facesheet Liner Configuration in Grazing Incidence for Broadband Noise Reduction

Tests were conducted in the NASA Langley Grazing Flow Impedance Tube (GFIT) to determine the broadband noise reduction capability of a variable facesheet liner. Three uniform liners were designed to achieve sound absorption over distinct frequency regimes at Mach 0.0. Each liner was fabricated and tested in the GFIT at sound pressure levels of 120 and 140 dB, and at tangential flow velocities up to Mach 0.5. A variable facesheet liner was fabricated to combine the geometries of these three liners, such that the facesheet geometry (hole diameter and porosity) was varied across the liner surface. The Prony method was used to educe the impedance of each sample, and these impedances were input to the CHE (Convected Helmholtz Equation) propagation code to predict the acoustic pressure profiles in the GFIT. Comparisons of predicted and measured acoustic pressure profiles were used to confirm the uniformity of all four liners, and to demonstrate the suitability of the CHE code in the analysis of the variable facesheet concept. Results showed good comparison at no flow and at Mach 0.3, and acceptable comparison at Mach 0.5. The variable facesheet liner provided enhanced broadband noise reduction at the no-flow condition for which it was designed, but further optimization is needed to target flow conditions.

acoustic↗

UNDERSTANDING THE SEMI-PROBABILISTIC APPROACHES IN STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY USED TO SET DESIGN RELIABILITY TARGETS FOR GRAPHITE COMPONENTS USING ASME BPVC METHODS

Graphite is a quasi-brittle material, resulting in random variability in tensile strength distributions. To account for the random variability in strength, HHA-3000 of the ASME BPVC provides two semi-probabilistic methods for qualifying nuclear graphite components in the design stage, the simplified and full assessments. The full and simplified assessments apply statistical methods to engineering-based design problems. This is often referred to as reliability-based design. Reliability-based design (RBD) is a method to develop reliable designs by accounting for uncertainties and result in small chances of failure when also considering safety factors. RBDs provide reliability targets using semi-probabilistic approaches. RBD is implemented in ASME BPVC HHA-3000 for nuclear graphite components, but is not specific to that application. There has been much confusion around the methods implemented in ASME BPVC HHA-3000 for qualifying nuclear graphite components. To address the confusion, this paper takes a hierarchical approach. First, the general RBD framework is presented. Then, the semi-probabilistic methods and the underlying assumptions implemented in the assessments are presented. The semi-probabilistic methods are separated from the engineering modifications that have been made to the assessments. After building the framework and underlying assumptions, the specific methods in the full and simplified assessments are explained in three steps: inputs, methods, outputs. The methods are applied to an H-451 reflector block. Tensile strength properties for other graphite grades are provided.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates

Abstract. We consider the problem of estimating the ensemble sizes required to characterize the forced component and the internal variability of a number of extreme metrics. While we exploit existing large ensembles, our perspective is that of a modeling center wanting to estimate a priori such sizes on the basis of an existing small ensemble (we assume the availability of only five members here). We therefore ask if such a small-size ensemble is sufficient to estimate accurately the population variance (i.e., the ensemble internal variability) and then apply a well-established formula that quantifies the expected error in the estimation of the population mean (i.e., the forced component) as a function of the sample size n, here taken to mean the ensemble size. We find that indeed we can anticipate errors in the estimation of the forced component for temperature and precipitation extremes as a function of n by plugging into the formula an estimate of the population variance derived on the basis of five members. For a range of spatial and temporal scales, forcing levels (we use simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and two models considered here as our proof of concept, it appears that an ensemble size of 20 or 25 members can provide estimates of the forced component for the extreme metrics considered that remain within small absolute and percentage errors. Additional members beyond 20 or 25 add only marginal precision to the estimate, and this remains true when statistical inference through extreme value analysis is used. We then ask about the ensemble size required to estimate the ensemble variance (a measure of internal variability) along the length of the simulation and – importantly – about the ensemble size required to detect significant changes in such variance along the simulation with increased external forcings. Using the F test, we find that estimates on the basis of only 5 or 10 ensemble members accurately represent the full ensemble variance even when the analysis is conducted at the grid-point scale. The detection of changes in the variance when comparing different times along the simulation, especially for the precipitation-based metrics, requires larger sizes but not larger than 15 or 20 members. While we recognize that there will always exist applications and metric definitions requiring larger statistical power and therefore ensemble sizes, our results suggest that for a wide range of analysis targets and scales an effective estimate of both forced component and internal variability can be achieved with sizes below 30 members. This invites consideration of the possibility of exploring additional sources of uncertainty, such as physics parameter settings, when designing ensemble simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Structure-Based Design of Hepatitis C Virus Vaccines That Elicit Neutralizing Antibody Responses to a Conserved Epitope

Despite recent advances in therapeutic options, hepatitis C virus (HCV) remains a severe global disease burden, and a vaccine can substantially reduce its incidence. Due to its extremely high sequence variability, HCV can readily escape the immune response; thus, an effective vaccine must target conserved, functionally important epitopes. Using the structure of a broadly neutralizing antibody in complex with a conserved linear epitope from the HCV E2 envelope glycoprotein (residues 412 to 423; epitope I), we performed structure-based design of immunogens to induce antibody responses to this epitope. This resulted in epitope-based immunogens based on a cyclic defensin protein, as well as a bivalent immunogen with two copies of the epitope on the E2 surface. We solved the X-ray structure of a cyclic immunogen in complex with the HCV1 antibody and confirmed preservation of the epitope conformation and the HCV1 interface. Mice vaccinated with our designed immunogens produced robust antibody responses to epitope I, and their serum could neutralize HCV. Notably, the cyclic designs induced greater epitope-specific responses and neutralization than the native peptide epitope. Beyond successfully designing several novel HCV immunogens, this study demonstrates the principle that neutralizing anti-HCV antibodies can be induced by epitope-based, engineered vaccines and provides the basis for further efforts in structure-based design of HCV vaccines. IMPORTANCE Hepatitis C virus is a leading cause of liver disease and liver cancer, with approximately 3% of the world's population infected. To combat this virus, an effective vaccine would have distinct advantages over current therapeutic options, yet experimental vaccines have not been successful to date, due in part to the virus's high sequence variability leading to immune escape. In this study, we rationally designed several vaccine immunogens based on the structure of a conserved epitope that is the target of broadly neutralizing antibodies. In vivo results in mice indicated that these antigens elicited epitope-specific neutralizing antibodies, with various degrees of potency and breadth. These promising results suggest that a rational design approach can be used to generate an effective vaccine for this virus.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Broadband Laser Ranging: Signal Analysis and Interpretation

Broadband laser ranging (BLR) is essentially a spectral interferometer used to infer distance to a moving target. The light source is a mode-locked fiber laser, and chromatic dispersion maps the spectral interference pattern into the time domain, yielding chirped beat signals at the detector. A BLR record is a sequence of these chirped signals, representing consecutive target positions. To infer distance to a target, each underlying pulse envelope must be consistently registered and subtracted despite environmentally-induced variability. Then, nonlinear transformation of the phase is applied to remove the chirp, an FFT is performed to determine the peak frequency of the de-chirped signal, and a calibration factor relating de-chirped frequency to distance results in target position. This article discusses these analysis steps are in detail.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗