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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2014

An Analysis and Review of Measures and Relationships in Space Transportation Affordability

The affordability of transportation to or from space is of continued interest across numerous and diverse stakeholders in our aerospace industry. Such an important metric as affordability deserves a clear understanding among stakeholders about what is meant by affordability, costs, and related terms, as otherwise it's difficult to see where specific improvements are needed or where to target specific investments. As captured in the famous words of Lewis Carroll, "If you don't know where you are going, any road will get you there". As important as understanding a metric may be, with terms such as costs, prices, specific costs, average costs, marginal costs, etc., it is equally important to understand the relationship among these measures. In turn, these measures intermingle with caveats and factors that introduce more measures in need of a common understanding among stakeholders. These factors include flight rates, capability, and payload. This paper seeks to review the costs of space transportation systems and the relationships among the many factors involved in costs from the points of view of diverse decision makers. A decision maker may have an interest in acquiring a single launch considering the best price (along with other factors in their business case), or an interest in many launches over time. Alternately, a decision maker may have a specific interest in developing a space transportation system that will offer certain prices, or flight rate capability, or both, at a certain up-front cost. The question arises for the later, to reuse or to expend? As it is necessary in thinking about the future to clearly understand the past and the present, this paper will present data and graphics to assist stakeholders in visualizing trends and the current state of affairs in the launch industry. At all times, raw data will be referenced (or made available separately) alongside detailed explanations about the data, so as to avoid the confusion or misleading conclusions that occur more often than not with complex graphs or statements when such context is lacking.

affordability↗

DOE OSTI2025

Upgrading Fermilab’s accelerator control system with ACORN

The Fermilab Accelerator Complex is the largest national user facility in the Office of High Energy Physics (DOE/HEP) program and the only national user facility operating at Fermilab. Fermilab serves as the host to the Long Baseline Neutrino Facility/Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (LBNF/DUNE), the laboratory’s flagship project for neutrino science that is under construction. LBNF/DUNE will be powered by megawatt beams from an upgraded accelerator, the Proton Improvement Plan II (PIP-II) that will replace the laboratory’s aging linear accelerator with a new one based on superconducting radio-frequency cavities. The Accelerator Controls Operations Research Network (ACORN) Project will support LBNF/DUNE and PIP-II by modernizing the accelerator control system. The project is at the conceptual design phase and looking to achieve Critical Decision 1 (CD-1) later this year. The scope and structure of the project will be presented, along with an overview of how that has changed in the past year. Current design and technology choices will be shared. Specific challenges facing the project will be addressed, along with current thinking on solutions.

Roehrig, Christian [Fermilab]↗

NASA NTRS2004

Dust Accumulation and Solar Panel Array Performance on the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) Project

One of the most fundamental design considerations for any space vehicle is its power supply system. Many options exist, including batteries, fuel cells, nuclear reactors, radioisotopic thermal generators (RTGs), and solar panel arrays. Solar arrays have many advantages over other types of power generation. They are lightweight and relatively inexpensive, allowing more mass and funding to be allocated for other important devices, such as scientific instruments. For Mars applications, solar power is an excellent option, especially for long missions. One might think that dust storms would be a problem; however, while dust blocks some solar energy, it also scatters it, making it diffuse rather than beamed. Solar cells are still able to capture this diffuse energy and convert it into substantial electrical power. For these reasons, solar power was chosen to be used on the 1997 Mars Pathfinder mission. The success of this mission set a precedent, as NASA engineers have selected solar power as the energy system of choice for all future Mars missions, including the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) Project. Solar sells have their drawbacks, however. They are difficult to manufacture and are relatively fragile. In addition, solar cells are highly sensitive to different parts of the solar spectrum, and finding the correct balance is crucial to the success of space missions. Another drawback is that the power generated is not a constant with respect to time, but rather changes with the relative angle to the sun. On Mars, dust accumulation also becomes a factor. Over time, dust settles out of the atmosphere and onto solar panels. This dust blocks and shifts the frequency of the incoming light, degrading solar cell performance. My goal is to analyze solar panel telemetry data from the two MERs (Spirit and Opportunity) in an effort to accurately model the effect of dust accumulation on solar panels. This is no easy process due to the large number of factors involved. Changing solar flux (the amount of solar energy reaching the planet), solar spectrum, solar angle, rover tilt, and optical depth (the opacity of the atmosphere due to dust) were the most significant. Microsoft Excel and Visual Basic are used for data analysis. The results of this work will be used to improve the dust accumulation and atmosphere effects model that was first created after the Mars Pathfinder mission. This model will be utilized and applied when considering the design of solar panel array systems on future Mars projects. Based on this data, and depending upon the tenure and application of the mission, designers may also elect to employ special tools to abate dust accumulation, or decide that the expected level of accumulation is acceptable.

Turgay, Eren H.↗

NASA NTRS1994

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Paper 40: Technical communications in aerospace education: A study of AIAA student members

This paper describes the preliminary analysis of a survey of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) student members. In the paper we examine (1) the demographic characteristics of the students, (2) factors that affected their career decisions, (3) their career goals and aspirations, and (4) their training in technical communication and techniques for finding and using aerospace scientific and technical information (STI). We determine that aerospace engineering students receive training in technical communication skills and the use of STI. While those in the aerospace industry think that more training is needed, we believe the students receive the appropriate amount of training. We think that the differences between the amount of training students receive and the perception of training needs is related partially to the characteristics of the students and partially to the structure of the aerospace STI dissemination system. Overall, we conclude that the students' technical communication training and knowledge of STI, while limited by external forces, makes it difficult for students to achieve their career goals.

Kennedy, John M.↗

DOE OSTI2017

HFE in the design of the socio-technical system of the control room of a new generation reactor: issues faced during multistage validation - 126

This paper deals with the contribution of Human Factors and Ergonomics (HF and E) experts to the design of the control room (CR) of a new generation reactor (NGR), our view of the multistage validation (MSV) process and the issues faced during it. Our approach to MSV was to articulate two points of view: the designers' point of view (test and explore various design options) and the regulatory authorities' point of view (validate the performance of the socio-technical system of the CR). To perform this articulation, both tests and validation shared the same method and goals. The main issues faced during this process were to (1) get a coherent and integrated version of the full-scope simulator when the design of the socio-technical system of the CR was still in progress, (2) determine when to stop MSVs, and (3) define a criterion for the sampling of operational conditions. The first issue led us to the conclusion that specific project milestones synchronising the design of every part of the CR have to be planned early in the project in order to mitigate the risk of delaying WSTs (Whole System Tests). Regarding the second issue, we advocate that no further WSTs are required when the last modifications brought to the CR design have no significant impact on crews' activities. Finally, concerning the last issue, we think that performing WSTs in all classes of situations a crew may face during operating the plant is necessary. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Who is marginalized in energy justice? Amplifying community leader perspectives of energy transitions in Ghana

There is a divide in energy access studies, between technologically-focused modeling papers in engineering and economics, and energy justice frameworks and principles grounded in social sciences. Quantitative computational models are necessary when analyzing energy, and more specifically electricity, systems, as they are technologically-complex systems that can diverge from intuitive patterns. To assure energy justice, these models must be reflective of, and informative to, a wide range of stakeholders, including households and communities alongside utilities, governments, and others. Yet, moving from a qualitative understanding of preferences to quantitative modeling is challenging. In this perspective piece, we pilot the use of the value-focused thinking framework to inform stakeholder engagement. The result is a strategic objective hierarchy that highlights the tradeoffs and the social, economic and technological factors that need to be measured in models. We apply the process in Ghana, using a survey, stakeholder workshops, and follow-up interviews to uncover key tradeoffs and stakeholder-derived objectives. We discuss three key areas that have been rarely, if ever, well-represented in energy models: (1) the relationship between the dynamics of electricity end-use and the technology and economic structure of the system; (2) explicit tradeoffs between electricity access, cost, and reliability as defined by stakeholders; and (3) the definition of new objectives, such as minimizing hazards related to theft. We conclude that this model of engagement provides an opportunity to tie together rigorous qualitative analysis and stakeholder engagement with crucial quantitative models of the electricity system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mapping Nitrogen Pathways in Organic Manure through GCAM

As the world has become more and more globalized, a need for a comprehensive and extensive modelling system that maps out the vast majority of processes and items around the world and can display how interdependent they are. Furthermore, such a model should be able to predict future processes and values such that it can guide scientific thinking and policy. This is where the importance of GCAM becomes so apparent. GCAM, the Global Change Analysis Model, that incorporates many different fields and can predict such a wide variety of processes. As the model expands and encompasses more fields and goes into greater detail, there is a need for previously incorporated processes to be further fleshed out. My project is dedicated to creating the organic nitrogen fertilizer pathway, such that there are two nitrogen fertilizer pathways, synthetic and organic (manure). Previously, only synthetic fertilizer was included, with all organic fertilizer (manure) being omitted from the model. Developing the synthetic path is relatively easy, as the process for creating synthetic fertilizer is an industrial process that has been perfected over decades, and thus has a very precise input/output coefficient of nitrogen, but determining that same coefficient for organic manure is much harder, because, well, digestion is not an industrial process, especially considering the many different types of animals have different processes, and a good amount of the manure they produce won’t be applied to the soil. I obtained data from the UN’s FAO on manure nitrogen applied to soil, and filled in the gaps and created many different visualizations to help comprehend the data. These findings will foster a greater understanding of nitrogen flows, which is crucial to fields like industrial agriculture, polluting runoff, and nitrifying bacteria and archaea in the soil.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Explainable Artificial Intelligence Recommendation System by Leveraging the Semantics of Adverse Childhood Experiences: Proof-of-Concept Prototype Development

The study of adverse childhood experiences and their consequences has emerged over the past 20 years. Although the conclusions from these studies are available, the same is not true of the data. Accordingly, it is a complex problem to build a training set and develop machine-learning models from these studies. Classic machine learning and artificial intelligence techniques cannot provide a full scientific understanding of the inner workings of the underlying models. This raises credibility issues due to the lack of transparency and generalizability. Explainable artificial intelligence is an emerging approach for promoting credibility, accountability, and trust in mission-critical areas such as medicine by combining machine-learning approaches with explanatory techniques that explicitly show what the decision criteria are and why (or how) they have been established. Hence, thinking about how machine learning could benefit from knowledge graphs that combine “common sense” knowledge as well as semantic reasoning and causality models is a potential solution to this problem. In this study, we aimed to leverage explainable artificial intelligence, and propose a proof-of-concept prototype for a knowledge-driven evidence-based recommendation system to improve mental health surveillance. We used concepts from an ontology that we have developed to build and train a question-answering agent using the Google DialogFlow engine. In addition to the question-answering agent, the initial prototype includes knowledge graph generation and recommendation components that leverage third-party graph technology. To showcase the framework functionalities, we here present a prototype design and demonstrate the main features through four use case scenarios motivated by an initiative currently implemented at a children’s hospital in Memphis, Tennessee. Ongoing development of the prototype requires implementing an optimization algorithm of the recommendations, incorporating a privacy layer through a personal health library, and conducting a clinical trial to assess both usability and usefulness of the implementation. This semantic-driven explainable artificial intelligence prototype can enhance health care practitioners’ ability to provide explanations for the decisions they make.

adverse childhood experiences↗

NASA NTRS1989

Human error and the search for blame

Human error is a frequent topic in discussions about risks in using computer systems. A rational analysis of human error leads through the consideration of mistakes to standards that designers use to avoid mistakes that lead to known breakdowns. The irrational side, however, is more interesting. It conditions people to think that breakdowns are inherently wrong and that there is ultimately someone who is responsible. This leads to a search for someone to blame which diverts attention from: learning from the mistakes; seeing the limitations of current engineering methodology; and improving the discourse of design.

Denning, Peter J.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Space and Ground Trades for Human Exploration and Wearable Computing

Human exploration of the Moon and Mars will present unique trade study challenges as ground system elements shift to planetary bodies and perhaps eventually to the bodies of human explorers in the form of wearable computing technologies. This presentation will highlight some of the key space and ground trade issues that will face the Exploration Initiative as NASA begins designing systems for the sustained human exploration of the Moon and Mars, with an emphasis on wearable computing. We will present some preliminary test results and scenarios that demonstrate how wearable computing might affect the trade space noted below. We will first present some background on wearable computing and its utility to NASA's Exploration Initiative. Next, we will discuss three broad architectural themes, some key ground and space trade issues within those themes and how they relate to wearable computing. Lastly, we will present some preliminary test results and suggest guidance for proceeding in the assessment and creation of a value-added role for wearable computing in the Exploration Initiative. The three broad ground-space architectural trade themes we will discuss are: 1. Functional Shift and Distribution: To what extent, if any, should traditional ground system functionality be shifted to, and distributed among, the Earth, Moon/Mars, and the human. explorer? 2. Situational Awareness and Autonomy: How much situational awareness (e.g. environmental conditions, biometrics, etc.) and autonomy is required and desired, and where should these capabilities reside? 3. Functional Redundancy: What functions (e.g. command, control, analysis) should exist simultaneously on Earth, the Moon/Mars, and the human explorer? These three themes can serve as the axes of a three-dimensional trade space, within which architectural solutions reside. We will show how wearable computers can fit into this trade space and what the possible implications could be for the rest of the ground and space architecture(s). We intend this to be an example of explorer-centric thinking in a fully integrated explorer paradigm, where integrated explorer refers to a human explorer having instant access to all relevant data, knowledge of the environment, science models, health and safety-related events, and other tools and information via wearable computing technologies. The trade study approach will include involvement from the relevant stakeholders (Constellation Systems, CCCI, EVA Project Office, Astronaut office, Mission Operations, Space Life Sciences, etc.) to develop operations concepts (and/or operations scenarios) from which a basic high-level set of requirements could be extracted. This set of requirements could serve as a foundation (along with stakeholder buy-in) that would help define the trade space and assist in identifying candidate technologies for further study and evolution to higher-level technology readiness levels.

Lupisella, Mark↗

NASA NTRS1989

Neural networks in support of manned space

Many lobbyists in Washington have argued that artificial intelligence (AI) is an alternative to manned space activity. In actuality, this is the opposite of the truth, especially as regards artificial neural networks (ANNs), that form of AI which has the greatest hope of mimicking human abilities in learning, ability to interface with sensors and actuators, flexibility and balanced judgement. ANNs and their relation to expert systems (the more traditional form of AI), and the limitations of both technologies are briefly reviewed. A Few highlights of recent work on ANNs, including an NSF-sponsored workshop on ANNs for control applications are given. Current thinking on ANNs for use in certain key areas (the National Aerospace Plane, teleoperation, the control of large structures, fault diagnostics, and docking) which may be crucial to the long term future of man in space is discussed.

Werbos, Paul J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Synthesis of Correct Digital Controller Models from Specifications by Model Transformation (21-0320)

The design of high consequence controllers (in weapons systems, autonomy, etc.) that do what they are supposed to do is a significant challenge. Testing simply does not come close to meeting the requirements for assurance. Today circuit designers at Sandia (and elsewhere) typically capture the core behavior of their components using state models in tools such as STATEFLOW. They then check that their models meet certain requirements (e.g. “The system bus must not deadlock” or “both traffic lights at an intersection must not be green at the same time”) using tools called model checkers. If the model checker returns “yes” then the property is guaranteed to be satisfied by the model. However, there are several drawbacks to this industry practice: (1) there is a lot of detail to get right, this is particularly challenging when there are multiple components requiring complex coordination (2) any errors returned by the model checker have to be traced back through the design and fixed, necessitating rework, (3) there are severe scalability problems with this approach, particularly when dealing with concurrency. All this places high demands on the designers who now face not only an accelerated schedule but also controllers of increasing complexity. This report describes a new and fundamentally different approach to the construction of safety-critical digital controllers. Instead of directly constructing a complete model and then trying to verify it, the designer can start with an initial abstract (think “sketch”) model plus the requirements, from which a correct concrete model is automatically synthesized. There is no need for post-hoc verification of required functional properties. Having tool to carry this out will significantly impact the nation’s ability to ensure the safety of high-consequence digital systems. The approach has been implemented in a prototype tool, along with a suite of examples, including ones that reflect actual problems faced by designers. Our approach operates on a variant of Statecharts developed at Sandia called Qspecs. Statecharts are a widely used formalism for developing concurrent reactive systems, supporting scalability through allowing state models containing composite states, which are the serial or parallel composition of substates which can themselves contain statecharts. Statecharts enable an incremental style of development, in which states are progressively refined to incorporate greater detail in an incremental model of software development. Our approach formulates a set of constraints from the structure of the models and the requirements and propagates these constraints to a fixpoint. The solution to the constraints is an inductive invariant along with guards on the transitions. We also show how our approach extends to implementation refinement, decomposition, composition, and elaboration. We currently handle safety requirements written in LTL (Linear Temporal Logic)

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2008

The Summer of Hydrogen

Ground crew veterans at Kennedy Space Center still talk about what they call "the summer of hydrogen"-the long, frustrating months in 1990 when the shuttle fleet was grounded by an elusive hydrogen leak that foiled our efforts to fill the orbiter's external fuel tank. Columbia (STS-35) was on Launch Pad A for a scheduled May 30 launch when we discovered the hydrogen leak during - tanking. The external fuel tank is loaded through the orbiter. Liquid hydrogen flows through a 17-inch umbilical between the orbiter and the tank. During fueling, we purge the aft fuselage with gaseous nitrogen to reduce the risk of fire, and we have a leak-detection system in the mobile launch platform, which samples (via tygon tubing) the atmosphere in and around the vehicle, drawing it down to a mass spectrometer that analyzes its composition. When we progressed to the stage of tanking where liquid hydrogen flows through the vehicle, the concentration of hydrogen approached four percent-the limit above which it would be dangerously flammable. We had a leak. We did everything we could think of to find it, and the contractor who supplied the flight hardware was there every day, working alongside us. We did tanking tests, which involved instrumenting the suspected leak sources, and cryo-loaded the external tank to try to isolate precisely where the leak originated. We switched out umbilicals; we replaced the seals between the umbilical and the orbiter. We inspected the seals microscopically and found no flaws. We replaced the recirculation pumps, and we found and replaced a damaged teflon seal in a main propulsion system detent cover, which holds the prevalve-the main valve supplying hydrogen to Space Shuttle Main Engine 3 -in the open position. The seal passed leak tests at ambient temperature but leaked when cryogenic temperatures were applied. We added new leak sensors-up to twenty at a time and tried to be methodical in our placements to narrow down the possible sources of the problem. We even switched orbiters, sending Columbia back to the Vehicle Assembly Building and bringing out Atlantis, scheduled to fly as STS-38. Two shuttles on their mobile launchers passing in the night was a majestic sight, but not one you want to see if you're trying to get an orbiter launched. None of this told us where the leak was, or if we were dealing with more than one leak source.

Weber, Philip↗

DOE OSTI2023

Decarbonized Electric Grid: Defining, Measuring, and Integrating Decarbonization into Electricity Sector Policy and Planning

Traditionally, electric grid planning seeks to maintain safe, reliable, efficient, and affordable service for current and future customers. As policies, expectations of the energy system, and the threat landscape evolve, additional objectives for power system planners are emerging, including decarbonization, resilience, and equity. Renewable and clean energy goals, especially in the context of deep decarbonization strategies, are changing the mix of resources on the electric grid and prompting new considerations for grid architecture. The increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events over the last two decades, coupled with cybersecurity concerns, have elevated resilience as a key system need. More recently, there has been greater focus on equity and energy justice in grid planning to ensure that disadvantaged communities are not adversely affected by grid modernization and have equal access to its benefits. In response, new thinking around multi-objective decision planning is exploring improvements in grid planning processes to better integrate approaches to meet decarbonization, resilience, and equity objectives. To provide a foundation for this work, a series of white papers was produced to summarize these emerging objectives.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Resilient Electric Grid: Defining, Measuring, and Integrating Resilience into Electricity Sector Policy and Planning

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Equitable Electric Grid: Defining, Measuring, and Integrating Equity into Electricity Sector Policy and Planning

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2010

Ares I-X Flight Test Development Challenges and Success Factors

The NASA Constellation Program's Ares I-X rocket launched successfully on October 28, 2009 collecting valuable data and providing risk reduction for the Ares I project. The Ares I-X mission was formulated and implemented in less than four years commencing with the Exploration Systems Architecture Study in 2005. The test configuration was founded upon assets and processes from other rocket programs including Space Shuttle, Atlas, and Peacekeeper. For example, the test vehicle's propulsion element was a Shuttle Solid Rocket Motor. The Ares I-X rocket comprised a motor assembly, mass and outer mold line simulators of the Ares I Upper Stage, Orion Spacecraft and Launch Abort System, a roll control system, avionics, and other miscellaneous components. The vehicle was 327 feet tall and weighed approximately 1,800,000 pounds. During flight the rocket reached a maximum speed of Mach 4.8 and an altitude of 150,000 feet. The vehicle demonstrated staging at 130,000 feet, tested parachutes for recovery of the motor, and utilized approximately 900 sensors for data collection. Developing a new launch system and preparing for a safe flight presented many challenges. Specific challenges included designing a system to withstand the environments, manufacturing large structures, and re-qualifying heritage hardware. These and other challenges, if not mitigated, may have resulted in test cancellation. Ares I-X succeeded because the mission was founded on carefully derived objectives, led by decisive and flexible management, implemented by an exceptionally talented and dedicated workforce, and supported by a thorough independent review team. Other major success factors include the use of proven heritage hardware, a robust System Integration Laboratory, multi-NASA center and contractor team, concurrent operations, efficient vehicle assembly, effective risk management, and decentralized element development with a centralized control board. Ares I-X was a technically complex test that required creative thinking, risk taking, and a passion to succeed.

Askins, Bruce↗

NASA NTRS2008

Integrating Safety and Mission Assurance in Design

This presentation describes how the Ares Projects are learning from the successes and failures of previous launch systems in order to maximize safety and reliability while maintaining fiscal responsibility. The Ares Projects are integrating Safety and Mission Assurance into design activities and embracing independent assessments by Quality experts in thorough reviews of designs and processes. Incorporating Lean thinking into the design process, Ares is also streamlining existing processes and future manufacturing flows which will yield savings during production. Understanding the value of early involvement of Quality experts, the Ares Projects are leading launch vehicle development into the 21st century.

Cianciola, Chris↗