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DOE OSTI2024

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Future Electron-Ion Collider

Generalized Parton Distributions include rich information and became a powerful tool for studying hadron structure. Deeply Virtual Compton Scattering is the golden channel to access GPDs. The development of high luminosity and high-acceptance detectors (Electron-Ion Collider) allows physicists to overcome the difficulty of DVCS measurements. The outstanding performance of the accelerator performs the eA collisions at the center of mass energy from 20 to 140 GeV, while the luminosity at the scale of 1034 cm?2s?1. The new type of high-density crystal, PWO-II, produced by CRYTUR in 2×2×20 cm3 will be utilized in the calorimeter. The transparency of PWO-II crystals is > 70% at 620 nm, > 60% at 420 nm, and >35% at 360 nm. The crystals also show good radiation hardness under 30 Gy radiation exposure. Ten PWO-II crystals have a uniform light yield at 30 p.e./MeV, providing sufficient light yield to reduce the fluctuation of the energy measurements. Near 3000 crystals were constructed inside the 12-sided polygon supporting structure in the simulation. The island clustering algorithm was used for reconstructed the energy. The energy resolution study by the particle gun shows the stochastic term and constant term are 1.8% and 1.2%, respectively. The spatial resolution of NEEMC varies from 5% to 15% of the crystal?s width depending on the particle?s incident angle. The pion rejection of NEEMC can reach 103 with electron efficiency > 85% when the particle?s energy is larger than 1GeV. The Pi0- identified efficiency study can be interpreted as finding the local maxima in the single cluster caused by two high energy close photons. The study results show that efficiency is nearly 100% for pi0 energy is smaller than 10 GeV, and efficiency drops to 30% with 20 GeV pi0. The new type of 3x3 pixelated AC-LGAD were wire bonded to ALTIROC for performance test. The cross-talk between the adjacent channels is about 20% for VPA and 10% for TZ. A series of the TDC characteristic measurements show that the jitter for both preamplifiers is about 20 ps, and the time-walk effect is mild for inject charge > 12 pF. Furthermore, the beta source radiation results quantify the sharing scale of the 3x3 pixels AC-LGAD (? 20%). The electronics simulation study results show no significant changes in the spatial resolution, whether ADC resolution is 8, 10, or 12 bits. The 8-bit ADC is decided to use in the EICROC as it has a smaller size and power consumption than the 10-bit and 12-bit ADC. The ECCE is one of the full detector proposals for EIC. The new type of DVCS generator, called TOPEG, is used to generate the high acceptance beam configurations of 18×110 GeV2 electron and 4He. The acceptance study shows a -1.8 < ? < -1.4 gap between the BEMC and EEMC. The 10?x,y geometry cut is applied on the Roman Pots, so the acceptance of Roman Pots quickly drops to 0% when the polar angle of the recoiled 4He < 2 mrad. This primary ECCE simulation study suggests extending the acceptance of BEMC longitudinally as the structure limits the radial size of EEMC. The acceptance of the Roman Pots is still challenging. In 2023, The overall design of ePIC was finalized by merging two full detector proposals (ECCE and ATHENA) after a series of intensive simulation studies.

Wang, Pu-Kai↗

DOE OSTI2022

Core Design of the Holos-Quad Microreactor

The Holos-Quad micro-reactor concept, developed by HolosGen LLC, is equipped with a 22 MWt (Mega-Watt thermal) core and an integral power conversion system converting the core thermal energy into approximately 10 MWe (Mega-Watt electric). This design can be configured to support a wide range of applications. It is a very innovative high-temperature gas-cooled reactor concept using TRI-structural ISOtropic particle fuel (TRISO) distributed in graphite hexagonal blocks, cooled with helium in a direct Brayton cycle independently executed by four Subcritical Power Modules (SPMs) fitted into a hardened 40-foot container whose dimensions are in compliance with ISO shipping containers requirements. In FY2019 HolosGen LLC was awarded by the Department of Energy Advanced Research Project Agency-Energy (DOE ARPA-E) under the MEITNER funding program. As part of the MEITNER award, the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) contributed expertise through two specialized teams: The “Design Team” and the “Resource Team”. The Design Team was dedicated to validate feasibility of the Holos-Quad core and to optimize its core design through neutronics analyses. The Resource Team was dedicated to feasibility verification via high-fidelity codes of Holos-Quad thermal-hydraulic, heat transfer, shielding, and structural aspects. This report summarizes the activities conducted by ANL Design Team. A rigorous design approach based on multi-criteria optimization and code-to-code comparison involving stochastic and high-fidelity deterministic solutions was developed and employed at several evolutionary stages of the Holos-Quad design. Several generations of the Holos-Quad core were designed within this project before converging to the current full-scale Gen 2+ design that is detailed in this report. Figure EA-1 illustrates a cross-sectional view of Gen 2+ Holos-Quad core configuration, and Figure EA-2 provides a simplified perspective view of 1-of-4 SPMs. The Holos-Quad uses four thermal-hydraulically independent SPMs locked into stationary positions during power operation, surrounded by BeO reflector and structural component fully comprised within the dimensional constraints represented by traditional ISO containers. One of the benefits of this approach is to enable transportation of each SPM promptly after irradiation in shielded containers. The core is designed to operate for approximately 8 full-power years while the reactivity controls and power conversion system enable load-following operations. The reactivity controls are represented by independent, diversified, and redundant reactivity control systems based on control drums and redundant sets of shutdown rods. The high-fidelity simulation tools were used to assess detailed power and flux distributions of the three-dimensional full-core or quarter-core of the Gen 2+ configuration. Single-physics and multi-physics simulations of the neutronics code PROTEUS and the thermal-hydraulic code System Analysis Module (SAM) were performed to analyze the Holos design configurations with detailed high-fidelity solutions. The design work performed confirmed feasibility of the Holos-Quad concept, provided realistic design description for detailed design of the operational system, and identified several core design improvements to be further considered for future reactor development activities.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

NRAP-Open-IAM Analytical Reservoir Model: Development and Testing

Geological carbon sequestration (GCS) is a key technology for reducing global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Over the last decade, the U.S. Department of Energy has invested in understanding the science base, developing practical implementation methods, and demonstrating secure GCS technologies to mitigate the environmental impacts associated with the atmospheric release of CO 2 . As part of the National Risk Assessment Partnership, a systems-level risk assessment tool, called the NRAP-Open-IAM, has been developed to conduct risk assessment and enable safe operations at a GCS site. The current NRAP-Open-IAM contains a simple reservoir model component that calculates the evolution of CO 2 saturation and fluid pressure in a storage reservoir during CO 2 injection operations. This report presents the development and testing of a new analytical reservoir reduced-order model (ROM), which is extended from an existing semi-analytical model for estimation of CO 2 and brine leakage along legacy wells, and enhances the capability of the NRAP-Open-IAM to simulate more types of reservoir conditions. The developed model is validated against three reference studies, and the results indicate that the new ROM predicts the behavior of the two-phase fluids (brine and injected CO 2 ) well and is applicable to different reservoir simulation boundary conditions (i.e., constant pressure boundary and infinite-acting boundary) without a priori user specification of the boundary type. Sensitivity analysis for a set of model parameters is performed using 4,000 synthetic cases prepared via a fully automated process and using machine-learning-based feature selection. The stochastic analysis identifies gravitational number (i.e., ratio of gravitational forces to viscous force) and distance between the injection well and observation location as the most impactful parameters for matching the pressure and CO 2 saturation, respectively, between the numerical simulations and the ROM. This report details the possible ROM uncertainties and serves as a guide for users to understand the use and limitations of this ROM. The code implementation of the model will be released as a module within the NRAP-Open-IAM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Patterns, drivers, and a predictive model of dam removal cost in the United States

Given the burgeoning dam removal movement and the large number of dams approaching obsolescence in the United States, cost estimating data and tools are needed for dam removal prioritization, planning, and execution. We used the list of removed dams compiled by American Rivers to search for publicly available reported costs for dam removal projects. Total cost information could include component costs related to project planning, dam deconstruction, monitoring, and several categories of mitigation activities. We compiled reported costs from 455 unique sources for 668 dams removed in the United States from 1965 to 2020. The dam removals occurred within 571 unique projects involving 1–18 dams. When adjusted for inflation into 2020 USD, cost of these projects totaled $\$1.522$ billion, with per-dam costs ranging from $\$1$ thousand (k) to $\$268.8$ million (M). The median cost for dam removals was $\$157$k, $\$823$k, and $\$6.2$M for dams that were< 5 m, between 5–10 m, and > 10 m in height, respectively. Geographic differences in total costs showed that northern states in general, and the Pacific Northwest in particular, spent the most on dam removal. The Midwest and the Northeast spent proportionally more on removal of dams less than 5 m in height, whereas the Northwest and Southwest spent the most on larger dam removals > 10 m tall. We used stochastic gradient boosting with quantile regression to model dam removal cost against potential predictor variables including dam characteristics (dam height and material), hydrography (average annual discharge and drainage area), project complexity (inferred from construction and sediment management, mitigation, and post-removal cost drivers), and geographic region. Dam height, annual average discharge at the dam site, and project complexity were the predominant drivers of removal cost. The final model had an R 2 of 57% and when applied to a test dataset model predictions had a root mean squared error of $\$5.09$M and a mean absolute error of $\$1.45$M, indicating its potential utility to predict estimated costs of dam removal. We developed a R shiny application for estimating dam removal costs using customized model inputs for exploratory analyses and potential dam removal planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2007

Coupled Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport/Weather Forecast and Research/Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model: Simulations of Tower-Based and Airborne CO2 Measurements - Part II

This paper evaluates simulations of atmospheric CO2 measured in 2004 at continental surface and airborne receptors, intended to test the capability to use data with high temporal and spatial resolution for analyses of carbon sources and sinks at regional and continental scales. The simulations were performed using the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model driven by the Weather Forecast and Research (WRF) model, and linked to surface fluxes from the satellite-driven Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM). The simulations provide detailed representations of hourly CO2 tower data and reproduce the shapes of airborne vertical profiles with high fidelity. WRF meteorology gives superior model performance compared with standard meteorological products, and the impact of including WRF convective mass fluxes in the STILT trajectory calculations is significant in individual cases. Important biases in the simulation are associated with the nighttime CO2 build-up and subsequent morning transition to convective conditions, and with errors in the advected lateral boundary condition. Comparison of STILT simulations driven by the WRF model against those driven by the Brazilian variant of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) shows that model-to-model differences are smaller than between an individual transport model and observations, pointing to systematic errors in the simulated transport. Future developments in the WRF model s data assimilation capabilities, basic research into the fundamental aspects of trajectory calculations, and intercomparison studies involving other transport models, are possible venues for reducing these errors. Overall, the STILT/WRF/VPRM offers a powerful tool for continental and regional scale carbon flux estimates.

Eluszkiewicz, Janusz↗

DOE OSTI2021

Microscopic Theory of Fluctuating Hydrodynamics in Nonlinear Lattices

The theory of fluctuating hydrodynamics has been an important tool for analyzing macroscopic behavior in nonlinear lattices. However, despite its practical success, its microscopic derivation is still incomplete. In this work, we provide the microscopic derivation of fluctuating hydrodynamics, using the coarse-graining and projection technique; the equivalence of ensembles turns out to be critical. The Green-Kubo (GK)-like formula for the bare transport coefficients are presented in a numerically computable form. Our numerical simulations show that the bare transport coefficients exist for a sufficiently large but finite coarse-graining length in the infinite lattice within the framework of the GK-like formula. Finally, this demonstrates that the bare transport coefficients uniquely exist for each physical system.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cytogenetic follow-up studies on humans with internal and external exposure to ionizing radiation

Cells exposed to ionizing radiation have a wide spectrum of DNA lesions that include DNA single-strand breaks, DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs), oxidative base damage and DNA-protein crosslinks. Among them, DSB is the most critical lesion, which when mis-repaired leads to unstable and stable chromosome aberrations. Currently, chromosome aberration analysis is the preferred method for biological monitoring of radiation-exposed humans. Here, stable chromosome aberrations, such as inversions and balanced translocations, persist in the peripheral blood lymphocytes of radiation-exposed humans for several years and, therefore, are potentially useful tools to prognosticate the health risks of radiation exposure, particularly in the hematopoietic system. In this review, we summarize the cytogenetic follow-up studies performed by REAC/TS (Radiation Emergency Assistance Center/Training site, Oak Ridge, USA) on humans exposed to internal and external radiation. In the light of our observations as well as the data existing in the literature, this review attempts to highlight the importance of follow-up studies for predicting the extent of genomic instability and its impact on delayed health risks in radiation-exposed victims.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Near-continuum, hypersonic oxygen flow over a double cone simulated by direct simulation Monte Carlo informed from quantum chemistry

A large-scale, fully resolved direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) computation of a non-equilibrium, reactive flow of pure oxygen over a double cone is presented. Under the simulated near-continuum conditions, the computational demands are shown to be significant because of the wide range of length scales that must be resolved. Therefore, robust grid adaption capabilities and efficient parallelization of the Stochastic PArallel Rarefied-gas Time-accurate Analyzer (SPARTA) code that is utilized in this work are essential. The thermochemical and transport collision models were selected for efficiency and simplicity. First-principles data, obtained from the highly accurate direct molecular simulation method, were used to inform the collision models’ parameters. Importantly, because SPARTA implements molecular collision models using collision-specific energies, the resulting macroscopic relaxation rates were evaluated a posteriori via zero-dimensional heat bath simulations. The comparisons of surface properties, namely heat flux and pressure, show very close agreement with previous computational fluid dynamics (CFD) results. Differences with the measurements were found to be similar to the CFD simulations. The unresolved discrepancy with the measurements could be due to inconsistent free stream conditions with the actual experimental data or missing physical phenomena altogether, for example atomic and molecular oxygen electronically excited states, three-dimensional effects, or more complex gas–surface interactions. As shown in this work, the advantages of obtaining a DSMC particle solution for these flows reside in the method's ability to be directly informed from first principles and to seamlessly describe internal energy non-equilibrium for all modes. With the advent of exascale computing and beyond, particle methods will be an increasingly important tool to verify the validity of physical assumptions in reduced-order models via fully resolved, experimental-scale simulations, down to the level of molecular-level distributions.

Mechanics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Recent Hydrodynamic Modeling Enhancements in OpenFAST

To improve the hydrodynamic modeling capabilities of the offshore wind design and modeling tool OpenFAST, a restructuring of the HydroDyn hydrodynamics module was undertaken with several new features implemented. The generation of the wave field is now separated from HydroDyn into a new module called SeaState. Unlike previous versions of HydroDyn, which precomputed the wave kinematics at the undisplaced positions of the hydrodynamic nodes, the new SeaState module computes the complete time history of the wave field at the vertices of a user-defined wave grid. During the simulation, the wave kinematics at any point within the grid can be efficiently interpolated, allowing the strip-theory wave loads to be evaluated based on the wave kinematics at the displaced structure position. A phase correction was also implemented for the potential-flow wave-exciting loads to account for large structure displacements. Several wave-stretching methods were implemented for the strip-theory solution along with a wave-load redistribution method that ensures smooth variation of the nodal loads as the nodes of a discrete hydrodynamic mesh enter and exit the water. The load smoothing is included to avoid the excitation of unphysical high-frequency structural vibration during hydroelastic simulations. The MacCamy-Fuchs diffraction correction for the strip-theory solution and the capability to insert a constrained NewWave into extreme stochastic sea states with directional spreading were also added. The present article documents the formulations of the new improvements to HydroDyn with example applications and numerical results.

constrained wave↗

DOE OSTI2022

Recent Hydrodynamic Modeling Enhancements in OpenFAST: Preprint

constrained wave↗

DOE OSTI2021

HYPPO: A Surrogate-Based Multi-Level Parallelism Tool for Hyperparameter Optimization

We present a new software, HYPPO, that enables the automatic tuning of hyperparameters of various deep learning (DL) models. Unlike other hyperparameter optimization (HPO) methods, HYPPO uses adaptive surrogate models and directly accounts for uncertainty in model predictions to find accurate and reliable models that make robust predictions. Using asynchronous nested parallelism, we are able to significantly alleviate the computational burden of training complex architectures and quantifying the uncertainty. HYPPO is implemented in Python and can be used with both TensorFlow and PyTorch libraries. We demonstrate various software features on time-series prediction and image classification problems as well as a scientific application in computed tomography image reconstruction. Finally, we show that (1) we can reduce by an order of magnitude the number of evaluations necessary to find the most optimal region in the hyperparameter space and (2) we can reduce by two orders of magnitude the throughput for such HPO process to complete.

adaptation models↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity analysis of numerical modeling input parameters on floating offshore wind turbine loads

Abstract. Floating wind turbines must withstand a unique and challenging set of loads from the wind and ocean environment. To de-risk development, accurate predictions of these loads are necessary. Uncertainty in modeling predictions leads to larger required safety factors, increasing project costs and the levelized cost of energy. Complex aero-hydro-elastic modeling tools use many input parameters to represent the wind, waves, current, aerodynamic loads, hydrodynamic loads, and structural properties. It is helpful to understand which of these parameters ultimately drives a design. In this work, an ultimate and fatigue-proxy load sensitivity analysis was performed with 35 different input parameters, using an elementary effects approach to identify the most influential parameters for a case study involving the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 5 MW baseline wind turbine atop the OC4-DeepCwind semisubmersible during normal operation. The importance of each parameter was evaluated using 14 response quantities of interest across three operational wind speed conditions. The study concludes that turbulent wind velocity standard deviation is the parameter with the strongest sensitivity; this value is important not just for turbine loads, but also for the global system response. The system center of mass in the wind direction is found to have the highest impact on the system rotation and tower loads. The current velocity is found to be the most dominating parameter for the system global motion and consequently the mooring loads. All tested wind turbulence parameters in addition to the standard deviation are also found to be influential. Wave characteristics are influential for some fatigue-proxy loading but do not significantly impact the extreme ultimate loads in these operational load cases. The required number of random seeds for stochastic environmental conditions is considered to ensure that the sensitivities are due to the input parameters and not due to the seed. The required number of analysis points in the parameter space is identified so that the conclusions represent a global sensitivity. The results are specific to the platform, turbine, and choice of parameter ranges, but the demonstrated approach can be applied widely to guide focus in parameter uncertainty.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comparison of Lagrangian Superdroplet and Eulerian Double-Moment Spectral Microphysics Schemes in Large-Eddy Simulations of an Isolated Cumulus Congestus Cloud

Abstract Advanced microphysics schemes (such as Eulerian bin and Lagrangian superdroplet) are becoming standard tools for cloud physics research and parameterization development. This study compares a double-moment bin scheme and a Lagrangian superdroplet scheme via large-eddy simulations of nonprecipitating and precipitating cumulus congestus clouds. Cloud water mixing ratio in the bin simulations is reduced compared to the Lagrangian simulations in the upper part of the cloud, likely from numerical diffusion, which is absent in the Lagrangian approach. Greater diffusion in the bin simulations is compensated by more secondary droplet activation (activation above cloud base), leading to similar or somewhat higher droplet number concentrations and smaller mean droplet radius than the Lagrangian simulations for the nonprecipitating case. The bin scheme also produces a significantly larger standard deviation of droplet radius than the superdroplet method, likely due to diffusion associated with the vertical advection of bin variables. However, the spectral width in the bin simulations is insensitive to the grid spacing between 50 and 100 m, suggesting other mechanisms may be compensating for diffusion as the grid spacing is modified. For the precipitating case, larger spectral width in the bin simulations initiates rain earlier and enhances rain development in a positive feedback loop. However, with time, rain formation in the superdroplet simulations catches up to the bin simulations. Offline calculations using the same drop size distributions in both schemes show that the different numerical methods for treating collision–coalescence also contribute to differences in rain formation. The stochastic collision–coalescence in the superdroplet method introduces more variability in drop growth for a given rain mixing ratio.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2000

Evolutionary Cell Computing: From Protocells to Self-Organized Computing

On the path from inanimate to animate matter, a key step was the self-organization of molecules into protocells - the earliest ancestors of contemporary cells. Studies of the properties of protocells and the mechanisms by which they maintained themselves and reproduced are an important part of astrobiology. These studies also have the potential to greatly impact research in nanotechnology and computer science. Previous studies of protocells have focussed on self-replication. In these systems, Darwinian evolution occurs through a series of small alterations to functional molecules whose identities are stored. Protocells, however, may have been incapable of such storage. We hypothesize that under such conditions, the replication of functions and their interrelationships, rather than the precise identities of the functional molecules, is sufficient for survival and evolution. This process is called non-genomic evolution. Recent breakthroughs in experimental protein chemistry have opened the gates for experimental tests of non-genomic evolution. On the basis of these achievements, we have developed a stochastic model for examining the evolutionary potential of non-genomic systems. In this model, the formation and destruction (hydrolysis) of bonds joining amino acids in proteins occur through catalyzed, albeit possibly inefficient, pathways. Each protein can act as a substrate for polymerization or hydrolysis, or as a catalyst of these chemical reactions. When a protein is hydrolyzed to form two new proteins, or two proteins are joined into a single protein, the catalytic abilities of the product proteins are related to the catalytic abilities of the reactants. We will demonstrate that the catalytic capabilities of such a system can increase. Its evolutionary potential is dependent upon the competition between the formation of bond-forming and bond-cutting catalysts. The degree to which hydrolysis preferentially affects bonds in less efficient, and therefore less well-ordered, peptides is also critical to evolution of a non-genomic system. Based on these results, a new computational object called a "molnet" is defined. Like a neural network, it is formed of interconnected units that send "signals" to each other. Like molecules, neural networks have a specific function once their structure is defined. The difference between a molnet and traditional neural networks, is that input to molnets is not simply passed along and processed from input to output units, but rather it is utilized to form and break connections(bonds), and thus to form new structures. Molnets represent a powerful tool that can be used to understand the conditions under which chemical systems can form large molecules, such as proteins, and display ever more complex functions. This has direct applications, for example to the design of smart,synthetic fabrics. Additional information is contained in the original.

Colombano, Silvano↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Streamflow and Sediment Transport Under Current and Future Climates at the West Valley Site - 20231

Performance Assessment models often require inputs representing specific hydrologic processes such as streamflow and sediment flux. This paper details the development of a process-level hydrologic model and its use in a Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) system-level model for the West Valley Site in western New York. For this PPA model, a watershed model was developed using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and used to evaluate water and sediment fluxes in nearby streams draining the Site. A particular challenge of probabilistic modeling over long periods of time is scaling parameters appropriately so that outcomes are not grossly over- or underestimated. This challenge is especially important when the spatial and temporal scales of process and system level models differ. In this instance, the SWAT watershed model and GoldSim PPA model have similar spatial scales of stream reaches and sub-catchments within a single watershed (approximately hundreds to tens of thousands of square meters, but the temporal scales differ considerably. The SWAT model calculates streamflow and sediment transport rates at the daily scale, while the PPA model requires long-term average values that are applied over hundreds to thousands of year-long periods. As such, distributions of daily climatic parameters such as average precipitation rate, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity were developed to force a transient SWAT model that captures the dynamic behavior of the watershed in response to daily changes in the weather. Output from the model, which includes stream flow (m{sup 3}/y) and sediment transport rate (Mg/y) is then averaged over a 100-year period as an approximation for the long-term average values which can be applied in GoldSim. A single SWAT model was run 5000 times with varying climatic inputs and deterministic soil, land use, and elevation data, and the range of outputs were compiled into a distribution which can be implemented stochastically into the PPA Model. Additionally, this paper includes a high-level discussion of how changes in future climate affect weather input distributions, and a summary of how those changes in weather affect the outcomes from the SWAT model and the inputs into the PPA model. In this analysis, future climate distributions were developed based on climate research documenting the expected changes to precipitation and temperature in western New York. The 5,000 SWAT simulations were then repeated with these future climate distributions, and the resulting output was implemented into the PPA Model as hydrologic conditions under a future climate. In the current version of the PPA Model, hydrologic parameters change linearly from the 'current climate' conditions to the 'future climate' conditions over a period of 100 years, after which they remain constant. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Recommended DSMC Collision Model Parameters for Planetary Entry

Hybrid simulation frameworks combining Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) are frequently employed to efficiently perform high-fidelity simulations of environments consisting of both continuum and rarified flow. DSMC is a stochastic, particle-based method which solves the fundamental Boltzmann equation and is therefore necessary for high-Knudsen flow where continuum-based assumptions governing CFD break down. However, the DSMC methodology is generally computationally inefficient to model the continuum regime. In a CFD/DSMC hybrid approach, obtaining an accurate, high-fidelity solution hinges on the consistent treatment of transport properties and the thermo-chemical models employed within the two solvers. In principle, in regions where CFD and DSMC are both employed, the same gas mixture under the same conditions should have the same properties, regardless of simulation type. Observed differences should be due to non-equilibrium processes, rather than differences in physical models. The goal of this work is to provide a comprehensive DSMC transport database encompassing the vast majority of known gas species encountered during Earth or other planetary atmospheric entry. This goal is largely possible due to recently performed ab initio quantum chemistry calculations. Combined with other high-fidelity data, the planned database will consist of collision integral data for over 200 neutral and ionized species and over 20000 binary collisions. From these collision integrals, Nelder-Mead optimization is used to compute collision-specific Variable Soft Sphere (VSS) collision model parameters, fitted from 300 K to 20000 K. Initial comparisons of transport properties of relevant equilibrium gas mixtures show great agreement between CFD and DSMC-derived results. The completed database can be readily applied to model binary collisions of any gas mixture containing the included species over the specified temperature range, making it a valuable tool for future planetary probe modeling efforts. An example is shown below in Fig. 1. Equilibrium mixture transport properties for a 35-species mixture composed originally of 10% air and 90% pyrolysis species of a carbon-phenolic ablator material [4] are computed using both fitted VSS Parameters and the original CFD collision integral values. Deviations in computed properties between the two approaches are less than 5% for the entire temperature range.

M. R. Gosma↗

NASA NTRS1995

Radiative transfer in a clumpy universe: The colors of high-redshift galaxies

We assess the effects of the stochastic attenuation produced by intervening QSO absorption systems on the broadband colors of galaxies at cosmological distances. We compute the H I opacity of a clumpy universe as a function of redshift, including scattering in resonant lines, such as Lyman alpha, Lyman beta, Lyman gamma, and higher order members, and Lyman-continuum absorption. Both the numerous, optically thin Lyman-alpha forest clouds and the rarer, optically thick Lyman limit systems are found to contribute to the obscuration of background sources. We study the mean properties of primeval galaxies at high redshift in four broad optical passbands, U(sub n), B, G, and R. Even if young galaxies radiated a significant amount of ionizing photons, the attenuation due to the accumulated photoelectric opacity along the path is so severe that sources beyond z approximately 3 will drop out of the U(sub n) image together. We also show that the observed B-R color of distant galaxies can be much redder than expected from a stellar population. At z approximately 3.5, the blanketing by discrete absorption lines in the Lyman series is so effective that background galaxies appear, on average, 1 mag fainter in B. By z approximately 4, the observed B magnitude increment due to intergalactic absorption exceeds 2 mag. By modeling the intrinsic UV spectral energy distribution of star-forming galaxies with a stellar population synthesis code, we show that the (B-R)(sub AB) approximately 0 criterion for identifying 'flat-spectrum,' metal-producing galaxies is biased against objects at z greater than 3. The continuum blanketing from the Lyman series produces a characteristic staircase profile in the transmitted power. We suggest that this cosmic Lyman decrement might be used as a tool to identify high-z galaxies.

Madau, Piero↗