Stochastic Search and Rescue Method for Day Ahead Economic Emission Load Dispatch Under Wind Uncertainty
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Mishra, Shilpa↗
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Results for “stochastic methods”
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Dakota, a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis version 6.0 theory manual
The Dakota (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a exible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quanti cation with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a exible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quanti cation, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Dakota, a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis :
The Dakota (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a exible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quanti cation with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a exible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user's manual for the Dakota software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
A New Verification Method for Deterministic and Stochastic Codes
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Krueger, Aaron Martin↗
A Hierarchy of Parallel-Robust Stochastic Media Radiation Transport Methods
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Olson, Aaron Jeffrey [Sandia National Laboratories↗
Hierarchical Schur complement preconditioner for the stochastic Galerkin finite element methods.
Abstract Not Provided
Phipps, Eric T↗
A model and variance reduction method for computing statistical outputs of stochastic elliptic partial differential equations
We present a model and variance reduction method for the fast and reliable computation of statistical outputs of stochastic elliptic partial differential equations. Our method consists of three main ingredients: (1) the hybridizable discontinuous Galerkin (HDG) discretization of elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs), which allows us to obtain high-order accurate solutions of the governing PDE; (2) the reduced basis method for a new HDG discretization of the underlying PDE to enable real-time solution of the parameterized PDE in the presence of stochastic parameters; and (3) a multilevel variance reduction method that exploits the statistical correlation among the different reduced basis approximations and the high-fidelity HDG discretization to accelerate the convergence of the Monte Carlo simulations. The multilevel variance reduction method provides efficient computation of the statistical outputs by shifting most of the computational burden from the high-fidelity HDG approximation to the reduced basis approximations. Furthermore, we develop a posteriori error estimates for our approximations of the statistical outputs. Based on these error estimates, we propose an algorithm for optimally choosing both the dimensions of the reduced basis approximations and the sizes of Monte Carlo samples to achieve a given error tolerance. We provide numerical examples to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Selection of polynomial chaos bases via Bayesian model uncertainty methods with applications to sparse approximation of PDEs with stochastic inputs
Generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansions allow us to represent the solution of a stochastic system using a series of polynomial chaos basis functions. The number of gPC terms increases dramatically as the dimension of the random input variables increases. When the number of the gPC terms is larger than that of the available samples, a scenario that often occurs when the corresponding deterministic solver is computationally expensive, evaluation of the gPC expansion can be inaccurate due to over-fitting. We propose a fully Bayesian approach that allows for global recovery of the stochastic solutions, in both spatial and random domains, by coupling Bayesian model uncertainty and regularization regression methods. It allows the evaluation of the PC coefficients on a grid of spatial points, via (1) the Bayesian model average (BMA) or (2) the median probability model, and their construction as spatial functions on the spatial domain via spline interpolation. The former accounts for the model uncertainty and provides Bayes-optimal predictions; while the latter provides a sparse representation of the stochastic solutions by evaluating the expansion on a subset of dominating gPC bases. Moreover, the proposed methods quantify the importance of the gPC bases in the probabilistic sense through inclusion probabilities. We design a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler that evaluates all the unknown quantities without the need of ad-hoc techniques. The proposed methods are suitable for, but not restricted to, problems whose stochastic solutions are sparse in the stochastic space with respect to the gPC bases while the deterministic solver involved is expensive. We demonstrate the accuracy and performance of the proposed methods and make comparisons with other approaches on solving elliptic SPDEs with 1-, 14- and 40-random dimensions.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Hybrid approaches for multiple-species stochastic reaction–diffusion models
Reaction–diffusion models are used to describe systems in fields as diverse as physics, chemistry, ecology and biology. The fundamental quantities in such models are individual entities such as atoms and molecules, bacteria, cells or animals, which move and/or react in a stochastic manner. If the number of entities is large, accounting for each individual is inefficient, and often partial differential equation (PDE) models are used in which the stochastic behaviour of individuals is replaced by a description of the averaged, or mean behaviour of the system. In some situations the number of individuals is large in certain regions and small in others. In such cases, a stochastic model may be inefficient in one region, and a PDE model inaccurate in another. To overcome this problem, we develop a scheme which couples a stochastic reaction–diffusion system in one part of the domain with its mean field analogue, i.e. a discretised PDE model, in the other part of the domain. The interface in between the two domains occupies exactly one lattice site and is chosen such that the mean field description is still accurate there. In this way errors due to the flux between the domains are small. Our scheme can account for multiple dynamic interfaces separating multiple stochastic and deterministic domains, and the coupling between the domains conserves the total number of particles. The method preserves stochastic features such as extinction not observable in the mean field description, and is significantly faster to simulate on a computer than the pure stochastic model. - Highlights: • A novel hybrid stochastic/deterministic reaction–diffusion simulation method is given. • Can massively speed up stochastic simulations while preserving stochastic effects. • Can handle multiple reacting species. • Can handle moving boundaries.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Stochastic Optimization to Find Optimum Beginning-of-Life Core Configuration of Stable Salt Reactor with Online Refueling
A stochastic optimization method has been developed to find an optimum equilibrium cycle core configuration of the waste-burning stable salt reactor, which is a fast-spectrum molten salt reactor with frequent online refueling. An optimum core configuration was determined with the goal of minimizing radial power peaking. Because of the vast number of potential candidate core configurations, stochastic optimization was applied based on simulated annealing and an additional acceleration method, which screened out unpromising core configurations. It has been demonstrated that the developed stochastic optimization method successfully finds the optimal core configuration regardless of the initial guess and outperforms the gradient descent approach. In addition, it has been observed that the use of a so-called out-in core configuration as the initial guess speeds up convergence of the iterative solution more than five times. Based on the searched optimum equilibrium cycle core configuration, new beginning-of-life (BOL) core configurations have been developed. In conclusion, the new BOL core configurations will be used in developing optimum refueling strategies.
Moltex static salt reactor↗
S-OPT: A Points Selection Algorithm for Hyper-Reduction in Reduced Order Models
While projection-based reduced order models can reduce the dimension of full order solutions, the resulting reduced models may still contain terms that scale with the full order dimension. Hyper-reduction techniques are sampling-based methods that further reduce this computational complexity by approximating such terms with a much smaller dimension. The goal of this work is to introduce the points selection algorithm developed by Shin and Xiu as a hyper-reduction method. The selection algorithm was originally proposed as a stochastic collocation method for uncertainty quantification. Since the algorithm aims at maximizing a quantity $\mathcal{S}$ that measures both the column orthogonality and the determinant, we refer to the algorithm as S-OPT. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the performance of S-OPT and to compare its performance with a gappy proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) algorithm. Here, we found that using the S-OPT algorithm is shown to predict the full order solutions with higher accuracy than gappy POD especially when the number of sampling points is small, although we note that S-OPT shows slow asymptotic convergence with respect to the number of samples for some applications, e.g., Lagrangian hydrodynamics.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Issues and Strategies in Solving Multidisciplinary Optimization Problems
Optimization research at NASA Glenn Research Center has addressed the design of structures, aircraft and airbreathing propulsion engines. The accumulated multidisciplinary design activity is collected under a testbed entitled COMETBOARDS. Several issues were encountered during the solution of the problems. Four issues and the strategies adapted for their resolution are discussed. This is followed by a discussion on analytical methods that is limited to structural design application. An optimization process can lead to an inefficient local solution. This deficiency was encountered during design of an engine component. The limitation was overcome through an augmentation of animation into optimization. Optimum solutions obtained were infeasible for aircraft and airbreathing propulsion engine problems. Alleviation of this deficiency required a cascading of multiple algorithms. Profile optimization of a beam produced an irregular shape. Engineering intuition restored the regular shape for the beam. The solution obtained for a cylindrical shell by a subproblem strategy converged to a design that can be difficult to manufacture. Resolution of this issue remains a challenge. The issues and resolutions are illustrated through a set of problems: Design of an engine component, Synthesis of a subsonic aircraft, Operation optimization of a supersonic engine, Design of a wave-rotor-topping device, Profile optimization of a cantilever beam, and Design of a cylindrical shell. This chapter provides a cursory account of the issues. Cited references provide detailed discussion on the topics. Design of a structure can also be generated by traditional method and the stochastic design concept. Merits and limitations of the three methods (traditional method, optimization method and stochastic concept) are illustrated. In the traditional method, the constraints are manipulated to obtain the design and weight is back calculated. In design optimization, the weight of a structure becomes the merit function with constraints imposed on failure modes and an optimization algorithm is used to generate the solution. Stochastic design concept accounts for uncertainties in loads, material properties, and other parameters and solution is obtained by solving a design optimization problem for a specified reliability. Acceptable solutions can be produced by all the three methods. The variation in the weight calculated by the methods was found to be modest. Some variation was noticed in designs calculated by the methods. The variation may be attributed to structural indeterminacy. It is prudent to develop design by all three methods prior to its fabrication. The traditional design method can be improved when the simplified sensitivities of the behavior constraint is used. Such sensitivity can reduce design calculations and may have a potential to unify the traditional and optimization methods. Weight versus reliability traced out an inverted-S-shaped graph. The center of the graph corresponded to mean valued design. A heavy design with weight approaching infinity could be produced for a near-zero rate of failure. Weight can be reduced to a small value for a most failure-prone design. Probabilistic modeling of load and material properties remained a challenge.
Patnaik, Surya↗
Excited States of the dtμ, pdμ, and tpμ Mesomolecules in the Variational Method
The energy spectra of excited bound states are calculated for the muonic molecules ptμ, pdμ, and dtμ on the basis of the stochastic variational method. The basis wave functions are taken as the Gaussian in shape. The matrix elements of the Hamiltonian are calculated analytically. To perform numerical calculations, computer code is written in MATLAB. Numerical values are obtained for energies of excited P states in the muonic molecules ptμ, pdμ, and dtμ.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
SDYN-GANs: Adversarial learning methods for multistep generative models for general order stochastic dynamics
We introduce adversarial learning methods for data-driven generative modeling of dynamics of nth-order stochastic systems. Our approach builds on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) with generative model classes based on stable m-step stochastic numerical integrators. From observations of trajectory samples, we introduce methods for learning long-time predictors and stable representations of the dynamics. Our approaches use discriminators based on Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), training protocols using both conditional and marginal distributions, and methods for learning dynamic responses over different time-scales. We show how our approaches can be used for modeling physical systems to learn force-laws, damping coefficients, and noise-related parameters. Our adversarial learning approaches provide methods for obtaining stable generative models for dynamic tasks including long-time prediction and developing simulations for stochastic systems.
• Artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning ↗
Interpreting the Strain Tensor During Injection into a Reservoir
A suite of well tests was conducted to evaluate the feasibility of measuring and interpreting the strain tensor during injection. Water was injected at 1 liter/s for a few days to a few weeks into a well completed at a depth of 530 m in the Bartlesville sandstone in the North Avant Field in Oklahoma. The strain tensor was measured using strainmeters at a depth of 30m and a distance of 220m from the well. We used a Gladwin strainmeter, a state-of-the-art geodetic strainmeter, as well as novel borehole strainmeters developed for the project. After processing, the horizontal strains were tensile and the vertical strain was compressive during injection. The radial strain was less than the circumferential strain. Strain magnitudes increased during injection and recovered afterward. The strain rate was as fast as 100 nanostrain/d at the start of injection, and decreased to 10 nanostrain/d after a few days. The normal strain signals were approximately proportional to the log of time during the first few days of injection, and the semi-log slope was 50 to 75 nanostrain. Data from the Gladwin strainmeter were essentially identical to data from a strainmeter we developed using optical fiber sensors. Tilt was measured using two tiltmeters, but the tilts were erratic compared to the normal strain and were of limited value. Strain data were analyzed using a strain type-curve method, an analytical solution to a poroelastic inhomogeneity, and a stochastic inversion method. Poroelastic simulations explain the data well. Results from the interpretation methods are consistent with each other, and with independent information characterizing the area. The hydraulic diffusivity is approximately 0.5 m2/s and the permeability is between 100 and 500 mD, according to analysis of the strain signals. This is consistent with measurements of permeability from cores, and with analyses of pressure transients. The analyses indicate that Young’s modulus of the reservoir is between 2 and 6 GPa. Strain interpretations indicate the well intersects a permeable lens with a maximum dimension of 500 to 1,000 m. An isopach map of coarse-grained sand confirms a feature roughly 1,000 m in lateral extent. The results demonstrate that the strain signal measured at shallow (30m) depth can be used to infer properties and heterogeneities in an underlying reservoir or aquifer.
Murdoch, Larry↗
Simultaneous stochastic inversion for geomagnetic main field and secular variation. I - A large-scale inverse problem
The method of stochastic inversion is extended to the simultaneous inversion of both main field and secular variation. In the present method, the time dependency is represented by an expansion in Legendre polynomials, resulting in a simple diagonal form for the a priori covariance matrix. The efficient preconditioned Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno algorithm is used to solve the large system of equations resulting from expansion of the field spatially to spherical harmonic degree 14 and temporally to degree 8. Application of the method to observatory data spanning the 1900-1980 period results in a data fit of better than 30 nT, while providing temporally and spatially smoothly varying models of the magnetic field at the core-mantle boundary.
Bloxham, Jeremy↗
A dynamically bi-orthogonal method for time-dependent stochastic partial differential equations II: Adaptivity and generalizations
This is part II of our paper in which we propose and develop a dynamically bi-orthogonal method (DyBO) to study a class of time-dependent stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) whose solutions enjoy a low-dimensional structure. In part I of our paper [9], we derived the DyBO formulation and proposed numerical algorithms based on this formulation. Some important theoretical results regarding consistency and bi-orthogonality preservation were also established in the first part along with a range of numerical examples to illustrate the effectiveness of the DyBO method. In this paper, we focus on the computational complexity analysis and develop an effective adaptivity strategy to add or remove modes dynamically. Our complexity analysis shows that the ratio of computational complexities between the DyBO method and a generalized polynomial chaos method (gPC) is roughly of order O((m/N{sub p}){sup 3}) for a quadratic nonlinear SPDE, where m is the number of mode pairs used in the DyBO method and N{sub p} is the number of elements in the polynomial basis in gPC. The effective dimensions of the stochastic solutions have been found to be small in many applications, so we can expect m is much smaller than N{sub p} and computational savings of our DyBO method against gPC are dramatic. The adaptive strategy plays an essential role for the DyBO method to be effective in solving some challenging problems. Another important contribution of this paper is the generalization of the DyBO formulation for a system of time-dependent SPDEs. Several numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, including the Navier–Stokes equations and the Boussinesq approximation with Brownian forcing.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION FOR LONG TERM CAPITAL STRUCTURES, SYSTEMS, AND COMPONENTS REFURBISHMENT AND REPLACEMENT
As commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) pursue extended plant operations in the form of Second License Renewals (SLRs), opportunities exist for these plants to provide capital investments to ensure long-term, safe, and economic performance. Several utilities have already announced their intention to pursue extended operations for one or more of their NPPs via SLR2. The goal of this research is to develop a riskinformed approach to evaluate and prioritize plant capital investments made in preparation for, and during the period of, extended plant operations to support decisions in NPP operations. In order to prioritize project selection via a riskinformed approach we developed a single decision-making tool that integrates safety/reliability, cost, and stochastic optimization models to provide users with data analysis capabilities to more cost effectively manage plant assets. Both stochastic analysis methods—such as Monte Carlo-based sampling strategies—and multi-stage stochastic optimization strategies are employed to provide priority lists to decisionmakers in support of risk-informed decisions. We applied the proposed method to a trial application of projected replacement/refurbishment expenditures for plant capital assets (i.e., Structures, Systems, and Components [SSCs]). The objective is to optimize the SSC replacement/refurbishment schedule in terms of economic constraints, data uncertainties, and SSC reliability data, as well to generate a priority list for maximizing returns on investment.
42 ENGINEERING↗