Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “statistical mechanics models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 343 records · Page 19

On-Orbit System Identification

Information derived from accelerometer readings benefits important engineering and control functions. Report discusses methodology for detection, identification, and analysis of motions within space station. Techniques of vibration and rotation analyses, control theory, statistics, filter theory, and transform methods integrated to form system for generating models and model parameters that characterize total motion of complicated space station, with respect to both control-induced and random mechanical disturbances.

Mettler, E.↗

Empirical Noise Modeling of Internally Mixed Exhaust Systems

There appear to be no non-proprietary methods to predict the noise of internally mixed exhaust systems, and no guidance for how to adapt known jet noise models for these configurations. This paper surveys literature and historical databases acquired at NASA Glenn's Aero-Acoustic Propulsion Lab to give such guidance. The core premise is that an exhaust system with well-designed mixer produces noise that is to first approximation the same as a fully-mixed jet flow. Refinement of what is meant by a “fully mixed jet” can lead to more accurate prediction of the main jet noise. Additional noise is often generated within the nozzle, typically at high frequencies, whose source mechanism(s) are not obvious. However, a noise prediction method can be established that captures some aspects of the excess noise and provide an estimate of the total jet noise. Explorations of source mechanisms associated with the internal mixer have led to a new noise model which includes the effects of having an external plug nozzle, a feature desirable for near-term supersonic aircraft. Statistical analysis of historical data is provided to estimate the uncertainty in using this method given the variations found that cannot be directly computed without detailed mixer geometry.

Noise Prediction↗

Empirical Noise Modeling of Internally Mixed Exhaust Systems

There appears to be no non-proprietary methods to predict the noise of internally mixed exhaust systems, and no guidance for how to adapt known jet noise models for these configurations. This paper surveys literature and historical databases acquired at NASA Glenn's Aero-Acoustic Propulsion Lab to give such guidance. The core premise is that an exhaust system with well-designed mixer produces noise that is to first approximation the same as a fully-mixed jet flow. Refinement of what is meant by a “fully mixed jet” can lead to more accurate prediction of the main jet noise. Additional noise is often generated within the nozzle, typically at high frequencies, whose source mechanism(s) are not obvious. However, a noise prediction method can be established that captures some aspects of the excess noise and provide an estimate of the total jet noise. Explorations of source mechanisms associated with the internal mixer have led to a new noise model which includes the effects of having an external plug nozzle, a feature desirable for near-term supersonic aircraft. Statistical analysis of historical data is provided to estimate the uncertainty in using this method given the variations found that cannot be directly computed without detailed mixer geometry.

Noise Prediction↗

Lithium-Ion Battery Life Model with Electrode Cracking and Early-Life Break-in Processes

This paper develops a physically justified reduced-order capacity fade model from accelerated calendar- and cycle-aging data for 32 lithium-ion (Li-ion) graphite/nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) cells. The large data set reveals temperature-, charge C-rate-, depth-of-discharge-, and state of charge (SOC)-dependent degradation patterns that would be unobserved in a smaller test matrix. Model structure is informed by incremental capacity analysis that shows loss of lithium inventory and cathode-material loss as the dominant capacity fade mechanisms. The model includes terms attributable to solid-electrolyte interface (SEI) growth, electrode cracking, cycling-driven acceleration of SEI growth, and "break-in" mechanisms that slightly decrease or increase available Li inventory early in life. The study explores what mathematical couplings of these mechanisms best describe calendar aging, cycle aging, and mixed calendar/cycle aging. Various approaches are discussed for extracting relevant stress factors from complex cycling profiles to predict lifetime during real-world battery loads using models trained on constant-current laboratory test results. The complexity of the present human-driven model identification process motivates future work in machine learning to more widely search and statistically discern the optimal model that correctly extrapolates capacity fade based on physical knowledge.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Mechanistic modeling of lifetime distribution of SiC/SiC composite claddings

Silicon carbide (SiC) fiber-reinforced SiC matrix (SiC/SiC) composites have emerged as a new material candidate for fuel claddings in light water reactors. Recent studies showed that the load capacity of SiC/SiC materials exhibits a considerable statistical variation. Therefore, reliability analysis plays a critical role in design of SiC/SiC composite claddings. Here, this paper presents a probabilistic model for the lifetime distribution of SiC/SiC composites. The model is anchored by a multiaxial stress-based failure criterion and subcritical damage accumulation mechanism. Based on the kinetics of subcritical damage growth, the lifetime distribution of a laboratory test specimen for any given loading history can be calculated. A finite weakest-link model is used to extrapolate the lifetime distribution of test specimens to full-length claddings. It is shown that the damage accumulation mechanism has a strong influence on the lifetime distribution of the cladding. This finding highlights the importance of understanding the static fatigue behavior of SiC/SiC composites. The present analysis also demonstrates an intricate length effect on the failure probability of the cladding, which is expected to play a crucial role in design extrapolation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

North American Extreme Temperature Events and Related Large Scale Meteorological Patterns: A Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and landatmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.

Cold Spells↗

Challenges in Qualification of Thermal Protection Systems in Extreme Entry Environments

Planetary entry vehicles employ ablative TPS materials to shield the aeroshell from entry aeroheating environments. To ensure mission success, it must be demonstrated that the heat shield system, including local features such as seams, does not fail at conditions that are suitably margined beyond those expected in flight. Furthermore, its thermal response must be predictable, with acceptable fidelity, by computational tools used in heat shield design. Mission assurance is accomplished through a combination of ground testing and material response modelling. A material's robustness to failure is verified through arcjet testing while its thermal response is predicted by analytical tools that are verified against experimental data. Due to limitations in flight-like ground testing capability and lack of validated high-fidelity computational models, qualification of heat shield materials is often achieved by piecing together evidence from multiple ground tests and analytical simulations, none of which fully bound the flight conditions and vehicle configuration. Extreme heating environments (>2000 W/sq. cm heat flux and >2 atm pressure), experienced during entries at Venus, Saturn and Ice Giants, further stretch the current testing and modelling capabilities for applicable TPS materials. Fully-dense Carbon Phenolic was the material of choice for these applications; however, since heritage raw materials are no longer available, future uses of re-created Carbon Phenolic will require re-qualification. To address this sustainability challenge, NASA is developing a new dual-layer material based on 3D weaving technology called Heat shield for Extreme Entry Environments (HEEET). Regardless of TPS material, extreme environments pose additional certification challenges beyond what has been typical in recent NASA missions. Scope of this presentation: This presentation will give an overview of challenges faced in verifying TPS performance at extreme heating conditions. Examples include: (1) Bounding aeroheating parameters (heat flux, pressure, shear and enthalpy) in ground facilities. How to certify TPS if environments can't be bounded or aeroheating parameters can't be simultaneously achieved. (2) Higher uncertainties in ground test environments (facility calibration and analytical predictions) at extreme conditions. (3) Testing in flows similar to planetary atmosphere composition (H2/He for Gas and Ice Giants). (4) Test sample size limitations for qualifying seam designs. (5) Lack of computational tools capable of simulating all significant aspects of TPS performance (including initiation and propagation of failures). This presentation will provide recommendations on how the EDL community can address these challenges and mitigate some of the risks involved in flying TPS materials at extreme conditions. Examples include: (1) Dedicated activity to understanding TPS failure modes. Develop computational tools capable of modelling fluid interaction with material's thermostructural response. Validate these tools through failure testing. A better understanding of failure mechanisms may eliminate the need to fully bound all aeroheating parameters in ground testing. (2) Enhancements to current testing facilities to simulate flight-like ablation mechanism (ex. testing in Nitrogen at Ames Interaction Heating Facility to limit oxidation in favor of more sublimation). (3) Improved characterization of test conditions with new diagnostic methods and determination of environment uncertainty through rigorous statistical analysis of available data. (4) Design margin policies that are directly tied to uncertainties in ground test environments and modelling fidelity

Mahzari, Milad↗

Comments on foliated gauge theories and dualities in 3+1d

We investigate the properties of foliated gauge fields and construct several foliated field theories in 3+1d that describe foliated fracton orders both with and without matter, including the recent hybrid fracton models. These field theories describe Abelian or non-Abelian gauge theories coupled to foliated gauge fields, and they fall into two classes of models that we call the electric models and the magnetic models. We show that these two classes of foliated field theories enjoy a duality. We also construct a model (using foliated gauge fields and an exactly solvable lattice Hamiltonian model) for a subsystem-symmetry protected topological (SSPT) phase, which is analogous to a one-form symmetry protected topological phase, with the subsystem symmetry acting on codimension-two subregions. We construct the corresponding gauged SSPT phase as a foliated two-form gauge theory. Some instances of the gauged SSPT phase are a variant of the X-cube model with the same ground state degeneracy and the same fusion, but different particle statistics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Progressive Failure And Life Prediction of Ceramic and Textile Composites

An engineering approach to predict the fatigue life and progressive failure of multilayered composite and textile laminates is presented. Analytical models which account for matrix cracking, statistical fiber failures and nonlinear stress-strain behavior have been developed for both composites and textiles. The analysis method is based on a combined micromechanics, fracture mechanics and failure statistics analysis. Experimentally derived empirical coefficients are used to account for the interface of fiber and matrix, fiber strength, and fiber-matrix stiffness reductions. Similar approaches were applied to textiles using Repeating Unit Cells. In composite fatigue analysis, Walker's equation is applied for matrix fatigue cracking and Heywood's formulation is used for fiber strength fatigue degradation. The analysis has been compared with experiment with good agreement. Comparisons were made with Graphite-Epoxy, C/SiC and Nicalon/CAS composite materials. For textile materials, comparisons were made with triaxial braided and plain weave materials under biaxial or uniaxial tension. Fatigue predictions were compared with test data obtained from plain weave C/SiC materials tested at AS&M. Computer codes were developed to perform the analysis. Composite Progressive Failure Analysis for Laminates is contained in the code CPFail. Micromechanics Analysis for Textile Composites is contained in the code MicroTex. Both codes were adapted to run as subroutines for the finite element code ABAQUS and CPFail-ABAQUS and MicroTex-ABAQUS. Graphic user interface (GUI) was developed to connect CPFail and MicroTex with ABAQUS.

Xue, David Y.↗

Gamma-Ray Bursts

Gamma-ray bursts originate from cosmological distances and represent the largest known explosions in the Universe. The observed temporal and spectral characteristics of bursts in the gamma-ray region, primarily from data obtained with the BATSE experiment on the Compton Observatory, will be described. The talk will concentrate on recent studies of burst properties, correlations of GRB parameters and other statistical studies that have recently come to light. A summary of recent discoveries and observations in other wavelength regions will also be presented, along with their implications for models of the burst emission mechanism. Various models for the energy source of gamma-ray bursts will be described.

Fishman, Gearld J.↗

Machine learning prediction of electron density and temperature from He I line ratios

We propose to utilize machine learning to predict the electron density, ne, and temperature, T e , from He I line intensity ratios. In this approach, training data consist of measured He I line ratios as input and ne and T e measured using other diagnostic(s) as desired output, which is a Langmuir probe in our study. Support vector machine regression analysis is, then, performed with the training data to develop a predictive model for n e and T e , separately. It is confirmed that n e and T e predicted using the developed models agree well with those from the Langmuir probe in the ranges of 0.28 × 10 18 ≤ n e (m -3 ) ≤ 3.8 × 10 18 and 3.2 ≤ T e (eV) ≤ 7.5. The developed models are, further, examined with an evaluation data, which are not included in the training data, and are found to well reproduce absolute values and radial profiles of probe-measured n e and T e .

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A numerical study of the meso-structure variability in the compaction process of prepreg platelet molded composites

Compaction deformations in a thermoplastic composite system molded from chopped prepreg platelets were analyzed to obtain statistical distributions of local distortions that define the final consolidated meso-structure. This study provides an insight into and allows quantification of the intrinsic geometric variability of the composite meso-structure that controls the variability of the effective composite mechanical properties. A two-phase viscoelastic finite element model was utilized to treat the behavior of molten prepreg platelets, which were assumed to be incompressible and inextensible in the fiber direction during processing. A two-step simulation procedure with discretely modeled platelets and platelet-to-platelet contacts is proposed. The analysis begins with a drop simulation of the uncontrolled material deposition followed by a 3D finite element analysis of the preform compaction and bulk material flow. The proposed model provides a method for generating a composite meso-structure ab initio starting from a statistical sampling of the initial conditions for platelet deposition. The predicted platelet thickness distribution, intra-platelet fiber waviness and out-of-plane platelet undulations were found to be in good agreement with experimental measurements. An estimate of the volume of resin pockets was inferred from the compaction simulation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Method to Analyze How Various Parts of Clouds Influence Each Other's Brightness

This paper proposes a method for obtaining new information on 3D radiative effects that arise from horizontal radiative interactions in heterogeneous clouds. Unlike current radiative transfer models, it can not only calculate how 3D effects change radiative quantities at any given point, but can also determine which areas contribute to these 3D effects, to what degree, and through what mechanisms. After describing the proposed method, the paper illustrates its new capabilities both for detailed case studies and for the statistical processing of large datasets. Because the proposed method makes it possible, for the first time, to link a particular change in cloud properties to the resulting 3D effect, in future studies it can be used to develop new radiative transfer parameterizations that would consider 3D effects in practical applications currently limited to 1D theory-such as remote sensing of cloud properties and dynamical cloud modeling.

Varnai, Tamas↗

Hydrogen Bond Network Disruption by Hydration Layers in Water Solutions with Salt and Hydrogen-Bonding Polymers (PEO)

A mean field theory model describing the interaction of ion hydration layers with the network of hydrogen bonds of both water and the nonionic polymer poly(ethylene oxide) (PEO) is presented. The predictions of the model for types and statistics of hydrogen bonds, the number of water molecules bound to PEO, or their dependence on temperature are successfully verified from all-atom simulations at different NaCl and PEO concentrations. Furthermore, our simulations show that the binding of cations to PEO increases monotonically with salt concentration, in agreement with recent experimental results, through a mechanism in which the sum of the number of bound water and cations is independent of salt concentration. Here, the model introduced is general and can describe any salt or hydrogen-bond-forming polymer.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The influence of temperature on the strain-hardening behavior of Fe-22/25/28Mn-3Al-3Si TRIP/TWIP steels

In this work, the influence of temperature and stacking fault energy (SFE) on the strain-hardening behavior and critical resolved shear stress for twinning was investigated for three Fe–22/25/28Mn–3Al–3Si wt.% transformation- and twinning-induced plasticity (TRIP/TWIP) steels. The SFEs were calculated by two different methods, density functional theory and statistical thermodynamic modeling. The dislocation structure, observed at low levels of plastic deformation, transitions from “planar” to “wavy” dislocation glide with an increase in temperature, Mn content, and/or SFE. The change in dislocation glide mechanisms from planar to wavy reduces the strain hardening rate, in part due to fewer planar obstacles and greater cross slip activity. Additionally, the alloys exhibit a large decrease in strength and ductility with increasing temperature from 25 to 200 °C, attributed to a substantial reduction in the thermally activated component of the flow stress, predominate suppression of TRIP and TWIP, and a significant increase in the critical resolved shear stress for mechanical twinning. Interestingly, the increase in SFE with temperature had a rather minor influence on the critical resolved shear stress for mechanical twinning, and other temperature dependent factors which likely play a more dominant role are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Monte Carlo study of Weibull reliability analysis for space shuttle main engine components

The incorporation of a number of additional capabilities into an existing Weibull analysis computer program and the results of Monte Carlo computer simulation study to evaluate the usefulness of the Weibull methods using samples with a very small number of failures and extensive censoring are discussed. Since the censoring mechanism inherent in the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) data is hard to analyze, it was decided to use a random censoring model, generating censoring times from a uniform probability distribution. Some of the statistical techniques and computer programs that are used in the SSME Weibull analysis are described. The methods documented in were supplemented by adding computer calculations of approximate (using iteractive methods) confidence intervals for several parameters of interest. These calculations are based on a likelihood ratio statistic which is asymptotically a chisquared statistic with one degree of freedom. The assumptions built into the computer simulations are described. The simulation program and the techniques used in it are described there also. Simulation results are tabulated for various combinations of Weibull shape parameters and the numbers of failures in the samples.

Abernethy, K.↗

The Application of Lidar to Synthetic Vision System Integrity

One goal in the development of a Synthetic Vision System (SVS) is to create a system that can be certified by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for use at various flight criticality levels. As part of NASA s Aviation Safety Program, Ohio University and NASA Langley have been involved in the research and development of real-time terrain database integrity monitors for SVS. Integrity monitors based on a consistency check with onboard sensors may be required if the inherent terrain database integrity is not sufficient for a particular operation. Sensors such as the radar altimeter and weather radar, which are available on most commercial aircraft, are currently being investigated for use in a real-time terrain database integrity monitor. This paper introduces the concept of using a Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) sensor as part of a real-time terrain database integrity monitor. A LiDAR system consists of a scanning laser ranger, an inertial measurement unit (IMU), and a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver. Information from these three sensors can be combined to generate synthesized terrain models (profiles), which can then be compared to the stored SVS terrain model. This paper discusses an initial performance evaluation of the LiDAR-based terrain database integrity monitor using LiDAR data collected over Reno, Nevada. The paper will address the consistency checking mechanism and test statistic, sensitivity to position errors, and a comparison of the LiDAR-based integrity monitor to a radar altimeter-based integrity monitor.

Campbell, Jacob L.↗

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV): Developing Flight Rationale for the Space Shuttle Program

Introducing composite vessels into the Space Shuttle Program represented a significant technical achievement. Each Orbiter vehicle contains 24 (nominally) Kevlar tanks for storage of pressurized helium (for propulsion) and nitrogen (for life support). The use of composite cylinders saved 752 pounds per Orbiter vehicle compared with all-metal tanks. The weight savings is significant considering each Shuttle flight can deliver 54,000 pounds of payload to the International Space Station. In the wake of the Columbia accident and the ensuing Return to Flight activities, the Space Shuttle Program, in 2005, re-examined COPV hardware certification. Incorporating COPV data that had been generated over the last 30 years and recognizing differences between initial Shuttle Program requirements and current operation, a new failure mode was identified, as composite stress rupture was deemed credible. The Orbiter Project undertook a comprehensive investigation to quantify and mitigate this risk. First, the engineering team considered and later deemed as unfeasible the option to replace existing all flight tanks. Second, operational improvements to flight procedures were instituted to reduce the flight risk and the danger to personnel. Third, an Orbiter reliability model was developed to quantify flight risk. Laser profilometry inspection of several flight COPVs identified deep (up to 20 mil) depressions on the tank interior. A comprehensive analysis was performed and it confirmed that these observed depressions were far less than the criterion which was established as necessary to lead to liner buckling. Existing fleet vessels were exonerated from this failure mechanism. Because full validation of the Orbiter Reliability Model was not possible given limited hardware resources, an Accelerated Stress Rupture Test of a flown flight vessel was performed to provide increased confidence. A Bayesian statistical approach was developed to evaluate possible test results with respect to the model credibility and thus flight rationale for continued operation of the Space Shuttle with existing flight hardware. A non-destructive evaluation (NDE) technique utilizing Raman Spectroscopy was developed to directly measure the overwrap residual stress state. Preliminary results provide optimistic results that patterns of fluctuation in fiber elastic strains over the outside vessel surface could be directly correlated with increased fiber stress ratios and thus reduced reliability.

Kezirian, Michael T.↗