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At least 343 records · Page 19

A Climatology and Extreme Value Analysis of Large Hail in China

In this paper, hail size records are analyzed at 2254 stations in China and a hail size climatology is developed based on gridded hail observations for the period 1960–2015. It is found that the annual percentiles of hail size records changed sharply and national-wide after 1980, therefore two periods, 1960–79 and 1980–2015, are studied. There are some similarities between the two periods in terms of the characteristics of hail size such as the spatial distribution patterns of mean annual maximum hail size and occurrence week of annual maximum hail size. The 1980–2015 period had higher observation density than the 1960–79 period, but showed smaller mean annual maximum hail size, especially in northern China. In the majority of grid boxes, the annual maximum hail size experienced a decreasing trend during the 1980–2015 period. A Gumbel extreme value model is fitted to each grid box to estimate the return periods of maximum hail size. The scale and location parameter of the fitted Gumbel distributions are higher in eastern China than in western China, thereby reflecting a greater likelihood of large hail in eastern China. In southern China, the maximum hail size exceeds 127 mm for a 10-yr return period, whereas in northern China maximum hail size exceeds this threshold for a 50-yr return period. Furthermore, the Gumbel model is found to potentially underestimate the maximum hail size for certain return periods, but provides a more informed picture of the spatial distribution of extreme hail size and the regional differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Identifying Climate Patterns Using Clustering Autoencoder Techniques

Abstract The complexity of growing spatiotemporal resolution of climate simulations produces a variety of climate patterns under different projection scenarios. This paper proposes a new data-driven climate classification workflow via an unsupervised deep learning technique that can dimensionally reduce the vast volume of spatiotemporal numerical climate projection data into a compact representation. We aim to identify distinct zones that capture multiple climate variables as well as their future changes under different climate change scenarios. Our approach leverages convolutional autoencoders combined with k -means clustering (standard autoencoder) and online clustering based on the Sinkhorn–Knopp algorithm (clustering autoencoder) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) to capture unique climate patterns in a data-driven fashion from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with GOLD component (GFDL-ESM2G). The developed approach compresses 70 years of GFDL-ESM2G simulation at 0.125° spatial resolution across the CONUS under multiple warming scenarios to a lower-dimensional space by a factor of 660 000 and then tested on 150 years of GFDL-ESM2G simulation data. The results show that five climate clusters capture physically reasonable and spatially stable climatological patterns matched to known climate classes defined by human experts. Results also show that using a clustering autoencoder can reduce the computational time for clustering by up to 9.2 times when compared to using a standard autoencoder. Our five unique climate patterns resulting from the deep learning–based clustering of the lower-dimensional space thereby enable us to provide insights on hydrometeorology and its spatial heterogeneity across the conterminous United States immediately without downloading large climate datasets. Significance Statement This paper presents a data-driven climate classification approach using unsupervised deep learning to dimensionally reduce climate model outputs and to identify distinct climate regions for their future changes. Our approach compresses climate information for 70 years of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model data across the conterminous United States (CONUS) at 0.125° spatial resolution. The results reveal that five climate clusters capture reasonable and stable climatological patterns matched to known climate patterns. The embedded clustering process in deep learning provides ×9.2 times faster execution than the k -means clustering technique. These results give us insight about climate spatial patterns and heterogeneity of hydrological patterns across the conterminous United States without downloading large climate datasets.

Kurihana, Takuya↗

AICCA: AI-Driven Cloud Classification Atlas

Clouds play an important role in the Earth’s energy budget, and their behavior is one of the largest uncertainties in future climate projections. Satellite observations should help in understanding cloud responses, but decades and petabytes of multispectral cloud imagery have to date received only limited use. This study describes a new analysis approach that reduces the dimensionality of satellite cloud observations by grouping them via a novel automated, unsupervised cloud classification technique based on a convolutional autoencoder, an artificial intelligence (AI) method good at identifying patterns in spatial data. Our technique combines a rotation-invariant autoencoder and hierarchical agglomerative clustering to generate cloud clusters that capture meaningful distinctions among cloud textures, using only raw multispectral imagery as input. Cloud classes are therefore defined based on spectral properties and spatial textures without reliance on location, time/season, derived physical properties, or pre-designated class definitions. We use this approach to generate a unique new cloud dataset, the AI-driven cloud classification atlas (AICCA), which clusters 22 years of ocean images from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua and Terra instruments—198 million patches, each roughly 100 km × 100 km (128 × 128 pixels)—into 42 AI-generated cloud classes, a number determined via a newly-developed stability protocol that we use to maximize richness of information while ensuring stable groupings of patches. AICCA thereby translates 801 TB of satellite images into 54.2 GB of class labels and cloud top and optical properties, a reduction by a factor of 15,000. The 42 AICCA classes produce meaningful spatio-temporal and physical distinctions and capture a greater variety of cloud types than do the nine International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) categories—for example, multiple textures in the stratocumulus decks along the West coasts of North and South America. We conclude that our methodology has explanatory power, capturing regionally unique cloud classes and providing rich but tractable information for global analysis. AICCA delivers the information from multi-spectral images in a compact form, enables data-driven diagnosis of patterns of cloud organization, provides insight into cloud evolution on timescales of hours to decades, and helps democratize climate research by facilitating access to core data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Boosting background suppression in the NEXT experiment through Richardson-Lucy deconvolution

Next-generation neutrinoless double beta decay experiments aim for half-life sensitivities of ~ 10 27 yr, requiring suppressing backgrounds to < 1 count/tonne/yr. For this, any extra background rejection handle, beyond excellent energy resolution and the use of extremely radiopure materials, is of utmost importance. The NEXT experiment exploits differences in the spatial ionization patterns of double beta decay and single-electron events to discriminate signal from background. While the former display two Bragg peak dense ionization regions at the opposite ends of the track, the latter typically have only one such feature. Thus, comparing the energies at the track extremes provides an additional rejection tool. The unique combination of the topology-based background discrimination and excellent energy resolution (1% FWHM at the Q-value of the decay) is the distinguishing feature of NEXT. Previous studies demonstrated a topological background rejection factor of ~ 5 when reconstructing electron-positron pairs in the 208Tl 1.6 MeV double escape peak (with Compton events as background), recorded in the NEXT-White demonstrator at the Laboratorio Subterráneo de Canfranc, with 72% signal efficiency. This was recently improved through the use of a deep convolutional neural network to yield a background rejection factor of ~ 10 with 65% signal efficiency. Here, we present a new reconstruction method, based on the Richardson-Lucy deconvolution algorithm, which allows reversing the blurring induced by electron diffusion and electroluminescence light production in the NEXT TPC. The new method yields highly refined 3D images of reconstructed events, and, as a result, significantly improves the topological background discrimination. When applied to real-data 1.6 MeV e - e + pairs, it leads to a background rejection factor of 27 at 57% signal efficiency.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Alkali-silica reaction products and cracks: X-ray micro-tomography-based analysis of their spatial-temporal evolution at a mesoscale

In this study, we propose a laboratory-scale methodology, based on X-ray micro-tomography and caesium (Cs) as a contrast agent, to advance the understanding of cracking due to alkali-silica reaction (ASR) in concrete. The methodology allows achieving a completely non-destructive and time-lapse characterization of the spatial-temporal patterns of both the cracks and the ASR products. While Cs addition slightly accelerated the ASR kinetics, the crack patterns, with and without Cs addition, were statistically equivalent. Cracks with ASR products appeared first in the aggregates, close to the interface with the cement paste. They propagated afterwards towards the aggregates interior. Some products were then extruded for several mm into air voids and cracks in the cement paste. This process suggests that, in the early stage, the ASR products may be a low-viscosity gel that can flow away from the source aggregate and may settle later elsewhere as a rigid phase, upon calcium uptake.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Austenitic parent grain reconstruction in martensitic steel using deep learning

In this work we develop a deep convolutional architecture to estimate the prior austenite structure from observed martensite electron backscatter diffraction micrographs. A novel data augmentation strategy randomizes the global reference coordinate system which makes it possible to train our model from only four micrographs. The model is much faster than algorithmic approaches and generalizes well when applied to micrographs of a different material. Empirical evidence suggests the efficacy of the model depends on the scale of the microstructure and receptive field of the vision model. Furthermore, this work demonstrates that modern computer vision approaches are well suited for capturing complex spatial-orientation patterns present in orientation imaging micrographs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Mapping potentials and bridging regional gaps of renewable resources in China

Reasonable and effective use of renewable resources can reduce dependence on traditional fossil-based energy sources and reduce carbon emissions. This study mapped the spatial potentials of renewable resources (i.e., solar radiation, precipitation, wind, and geothermal resources) in China. The results showed that China's most abundant renewable resources are located in the southwestern regions, which are significantly different from the spatial distribution patterns of population and economic development. Four southwestern provinces (Tibet, Qinghai, Sichuan, and Yunnan) make up only 7% of the national gross domestic product (GDP) and 30% of the national land area but possess 58% of the renewable resources. Furthermore, we found a weak to moderate degree of negative correlation between the emergy density of renewable resources and GDP per capita on the administrative levels of the prefecture-level cities for the whole country and in its eastern, central, and western regions. This means that the socioeconomically underdeveloped Midwest has more abundant renewable resources. A distributed energy-economic system may help to bridge the regional gaps of renewable sources in China. These findings can support policy decisions for the better development and use of renewable resources in China.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Mixed Length Scale Model for Migrating Fluvial Bedforms

With the expansion of hydropower, in-stream converters, flood-protection infrastructures, and growing concerns on deltas fragile ecosystems, there is a pressing need to evaluate and monitor bedform sediment mass flux. It is critical to estimate real-time bedform size and migration velocity and provide a theoretical framework to convert easily accessible time histories of bed elevations into spatially evolving patterns. In this study, we collected spatiotemporally resolved bathymetries from laboratory flumes and the Colorado River in statistically steady, homogeneous, subcritical flow conditions. Wave number and frequency spectra of bed elevations show compelling evidence of scale-dependent velocity for the hierarchy of migrating bedforms observed in the laboratory and field. New scaling laws were applied to describe the full range of migration velocities as function of two dimensionless groups based on the bed shear velocity, sediment diameter, and water depth. Further simplification resulted in a mixed length scale model estimating scale-dependent migration velocities, without requiring bedform classification or identification.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Holes in Optical Lightning Flashes: Identifying Poorly Transmissive Clouds in Lightning Imager Data

Space-based optical lightning sensors including the lightning imaging sensor (LIS) and geostationary lightning mapper (GLM) are pixelated imagers that detect lightning as transient increases in cloud top illumination. Detection requires optical emissions to escape the cloud top to space with sufficient energy to trigger a pixel on the imaging array. Through scattering and absorption, certain clouds are able to block most light from reaching the instrument, causing a reduction in detection efficiency (DE) and possibly location accuracy (LA). Radiant lightning emissions that illuminate large cloud top areas are used to examine scenarios where clouds block light from reaching orbit. In some cases, these anomalies in the spatial radiance distribution from the lightning pulse lead to “holes” in the optical lightning flash where certain pixels fail to trigger. Such holes are identified algorithmically in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite LIS record and the microphysical properties of the coincident storm region are queried. We find that holes primarily occur in tall (IR T b < 235 K) convection (87%) and overhanging anvil clouds (10%). The remaining 3% of holes occur in moderate-to-weak convection or in clear air breaks between stormclouds. We further demonstrate how an algorithm that assesses the spatial radiance patterns from energetic lightning pulses might be used to construct an optical transmission gridded stoplight product for GLM that could help operators identify clouds with a potentially reduced DE and LA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Integrated Modeling Framework for Sediment Dynamics During Urban Flooding: Application to Hurricane Harvey in Houston

Floodwater can mobilize and redistribute large volumes of sediment from upland to downstream urban areas, threatening infrastructure, water quality, and ecosystem health. However, existing modeling approaches often fail to capture sediment dynamics in urban floodplains due to the lack of integration between upland hydrological processes and riverine sediment transport. This study presents the first integrated modeling framework that couples the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land component, which simulates runoff and hillslope erosion, with TELEMAC-GAIA, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and sediment transport model. This framework enables the fully distributed, process-based simulation of high-resolution (as fine as 30 m) sediment dynamics from hillslopes to floodplains. Applied to a highly urbanized watershed in Houston during Hurricane Harvey, this framework reproduced observed water levels at 16 USGS gauges (median R 2 = 0.83 and KGE = 0.78), key sediment dynamics such as sediment transport and deposition processes, and reproduced spatial deposition patterns consistent with LiDAR-derived data. Based on the simulation, we estimate 8.0 million m 3 of event-scale sediment deposition, including 5.7 million m 3 trapped in the flood-control reservoirs and 2.3 million m 3 deposited along major channels and floodplains. Using a representative unit removal cost, this corresponds to an estimated dredging cost of $581 million for total deposition. These results provide a first-order, physically based quantification of Harvey-scale sediment impacts. This study provides a valuable tool for the holistic analysis of sediment dynamics triggered by extreme urban flooding, supporting flood-resilience planning. More broadly, it highlights the importance of integrating physically based hydrological processes for urban flooding and sediment research.

Hurricane Harvey↗

Composition and metabolism of microbial communities in soil pores

Delineation of microbial habitats within the soil matrix and characterization of their environments and metabolic processes are crucial to understand soil functioning, yet their experimental identification remains persistently limited. We combined single- and triple-energy X-ray computed microtomography with pore specific allocation of 13 C labeled glucose and subsequent stable isotope probing to demonstrate how long-term disparities in vegetation history modify spatial distribution patterns of soil pore and particulate organic matter drivers of microbial habitats, and to probe bacterial communities populating such habitats. Here we show striking differences between large (30-150 µm Ø) and small (4-10 µm Ø) soil pores in (i) microbial diversity, composition, and life-strategies, (ii) responses to added substrate, (iii) metabolic pathways, and (iv) the processing and fate of labile C. We propose a microbial habitat classification concept based on biogeochemical mechanisms and localization of soil processes and also suggests interventions to mitigate the environmental consequences of agricultural management.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Charge order landscape and competition with superconductivity in kagome metals

In the kagome metals AV 3 Sb 5 (A = K, Rb, Cs), three-dimensional charge order is the primary instability that sets the stage for other collective orders to emerge, including unidirectional stripe order, orbital flux order, electronic nematicity and superconductivity. In this report we use high-resolution angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy to determine the microscopic structure of three-dimensional charge order in AV 3 Sb 5 and its interplay with superconductivity. Our approach is based on identifying an unusual splitting of kagome bands induced by three-dimensional charge order, which provides a sensitive way to refine the spatial charge patterns in neighbouring kagome planes. Here we found a marked dependence of the three-dimensional charge order structure on composition and doping. The observed difference between CsV 3 Sb 5 and the other compounds potentially underpins the double-dome superconductivity in CsV 3 (Sb,Sn) 5 and the suppression of T c in KV 3 Sb 5 and RbV 3 Sb 5 . Our results provide fresh insights into the rich phase diagram of AV 3 Sb 5 .

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

PERSIANN-CCS-CDR, a 3-hourly 0.04° global precipitation climate data record for heavy precipitation studies

Accurate long-term global precipitation estimates, especially for heavy precipitation rates, at fine spatial and temporal resolutions is vital for a wide variety of climatological studies. Most of the available operational precipitation estimation datasets provide either high spatial resolution with short-term duration estimates or lower spatial resolution with long-term duration estimates. Furthermore, previous research has stressed that most of the available satellite-based precipitation products show poor performance for capturing extreme events at high temporal resolution. Therefore, there is a need for a precipitation product that reliably detects heavy precipitation rates with fine spatiotemporal resolution and a longer period of record. Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CCS-CDR) is designed to address these limitations. This dataset provides precipitation estimates at 0.04° spatial and 3-hourly temporal resolutions from 1983 to present over the global domain of 60°S to 60°N. Evaluations of PERSIANN-CCS-CDR and PERSIANN-CDR against gauge and radar observations show the better performance of PERSIANN-CCS-CDR in representing the spatiotemporal resolution, magnitude, and spatial distribution patterns of precipitation, especially for extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Limited increases in Arctic offshore oil and gas production with climate change and the implications for energy markets

Climate change impacts on sea ice thickness is opening access to offshore Arctic resources. The degree to which these resources are exploited will depend on sea-ice conditions, technology costs, international energy markets, and the regulatory environment. We use an integrated human-Earth system model, GCAM, to explore the effects of spatial–temporal patterns of sea-ice loss under climate change on future Arctic offshore oil and gas extraction, considering interactions with global energy markets and emission reduction scenarios. We find that under SSP5, a “fossil-fueled development” scenario, the effects of sea-ice loss are larger for Arctic offshore oil production than gas. Under SSP5, future extraction of Arctic offshore oil and gas through 2100 adds roughly 0.8–2.6 EJ/year to oil and gas markets but does not have large impacts on global oil and gas markets. Surprisingly, a low-carbon scenario results in greater Arctic offshore oil production to offset the more emissions-intensive unconventional oil production.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Fractional Laplacian spectral approach to turbulence in a dusty plasma monolayer

This work presents an analytical investigation of anomalous diffusion and turbulence in a dusty plasma monolayer, where energy transport across scales leads to the spontaneous formation of spatially disordered patterns. Many-body simulations of 10,000-particle dusty plasma monolayers are used to demonstrate how the global dynamics depend on the statistical properties of the dust assembly for realistic laboratory conditions. We find that disorder due to variations in the dust size distribution and charge-driven nonlocal interactions resulting in anomalous dust diffusion are key factors for the onset of instabilities. The resulting dynamics exhibit features of inertial turbulence over slightly more than half a decade of scales proportional or smaller than the Debye shielding length. These processes are examined analytically using a recently developed Fractional Laplacian Spectral (FLS) technique, which identifies the active energy channels as a function of scale, disorder concentration, and features of the nonlocal-interactions. The predictions from the theoretical (spectral) analysis demonstrate agreement with the results from the many-body (kinetic) simulations, thus providing a powerful tool for the study of active turbulence.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Colliding Pulse Mode Locking and Nonequilibrium Carrier Dynamics within Vertical External-Cavity Surface-Emitting Lasers

The complex nonlinear dynamics of colliding counterpropagating ultrashort laser pulses circulating in a vertical external-cavity surface-emitting ring laser cavity are captured by a first-principles quantum-mechanical microscopic model coupled to an intracavity beam propagator. Furthermore, our numerical simulations establish that overall mode locking stability is sensitive to relative phases and delays of the pulses impinging on the semiconductor saturable absorber mirror. Delay offsets of the counterpropagating pulses lead to asymmetric carrier recovery and instability, often leading in turn to single unidirectional circulating pulses. Although computationally challenging, we also include transverse effects and show that the influence of interference patterns from spatial gratings written by the counterpropagating pulses is significant in stabilizing the modelocked pulses.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Genetic time traveling: sequencing old herbarium specimens, including the oldest herbarium specimen sequenced from kingdom Fungi, reveals the population structure of an agriculturally significant rust

Summary Sequencing herbarium specimens can be instrumental in answering ecological, evolutionary, and taxonomic inquiries. We developed a protocol for sequencing herbarium specimens of rust fungi (Pucciniales) and proceeded to sequence specimens ranging from 4 to 211 yr old from five different genera. We then obtained sequences from an economically important biological control agent, Puccinia suaveolens , to highlight the potential of sequencing herbarium specimens in an ecological sense and to evaluate the following hypotheses: (1) The population structure of a plant pathogen changes over time, and (2) introduced pathogens are more diverse in their native range. Our efforts resulted in sequences from 87 herbarium specimens that revealed a high level of diversity with a population structure that exhibited spatial–temporal patterns. The specimens sequenced from Europe showed more diversity than the ones from North America, uncovering an invasion pattern likely related to its European native host in North America. Additionally, to the best of our knowledge, the specimen from France collected in c. 1811 is the oldest herbarium specimen sequenced from kingdom Fungi. In conclusion, sequencing old herbarium specimens is an important tool that can be extrapolated to better understand plant–microbe evolution and to evaluate old type specimens to solidify the taxonomy of plant pathogenic fungi.

Plant Sciences↗

Mixing in Low Reynolds Number Reacting Impinging Jets in Crossflow

Previous efforts to model uranyl fluoride formation in an impinging jet gas reactor underpredicted spatial mixing and overpredicted chemical conversion into particulates. The previous fluid dynamics model was based on the solution of the Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes equations. After simulating fluid dynamics, aerosol dynamics were superimposed onto CFD-simulated gas reactant species concentrations. The current work explores the influence of complex unsteady flow features on the overall flow physics and chemistry for a low Reynolds number, opposed flow, impinging jet gas reactor where there is a low Reynolds number cross flow. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of model formulation on scalar mixing and transport. Here, transient flow simulations were performed using Scale Resolving Simulations. Large-Eddy Simulations with the dynamic Smagorinsky turbulence model were performed along with simulations which directly resolved the flow. Average and root-mean-square (RMS) velocities and species concentrations were computed along with modeled and resolved turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), modeled turbulence dissipation, and modeled turbulent viscosity. Lagrangian flow tracers were also used to quantify species concentrations along path lines emanating from the jet tips. Transient simulation data were compared to results from RANS simulations using the k-ω shear stress transport (SST) model and Reynolds Stress Model (RSM). Transient simulations showed spatial mixing patterns which were more consistent with experimental data and helped elucidate the process of particle formation observed in experiments.

42 ENGINEERING↗