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DOE OSTI2026

Emerging hierarchical dislocation structures: Insights from scanning electron microscopy-electron backscatter diffraction in situ tensile testing and multifractal analysis

Understanding the evolution of dislocation structures during plastic deformation is critical for predicting the mechanical performance of metallic materials. In this work, we applied in situ scanning electron microscopy/electron backscatter diffraction tensile testing combined with multifractal (MF) analysis to assess deformation-induced dislocation structure evolution in solution-annealed 304 L stainless steel, both in its as-received and neutron-irradiated states (5.4 displacements per atom). The analysis of kernel average misorientation patterns revealed the formation of hierarchical dislocation arrangements that exhibit clear MF scaling behavior. Despite pronounced visual differences between nonirradiated and irradiated specimens—most notably, the appearance of dislocation channels after irradiation—the singularity spectra suggest that both conditions give rise to similar underlying hierarchical structures. MF analysis provides a quantitative measure of the spatial complexity and self-organization of dislocation patterns, highlighting the accelerated emergence and evolution of the dislocation structures in irradiated polycrystalline materials, as well as the limitation of their spatial extent. The findings indicate that irradiation not only modifies microstructure but also alters correlation-driven dislocation organization. More generally, they demonstrate that MF analysis is a powerful tool for probing mesoscale deformation mechanisms.

Dislocation structures↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fracture Network Quantification during CO2 Injection

This is the presentation prepared for the ARMA 2025 (59th US Rock Mechanics/Geomechanics Symposium) Conference held in Santa Fe, New Mexico, June 8-11, 2025. Accurate mapping and quantification of these networks are essential to ensure the integrity of CO2 storage reservoirs, understand and reduce potential leakage, and maintain long-term environmental safety. This study presents a novel machine learning-driven approach, integrated with geomechanical analysis, to quantify fracture networks and assess their spatial distribution during CO2 injection. This paper combines microseismic monitoring data with principles of hydraulic diffusivity and geomechanical analysis to characterize reservoir scale fracture network. The novelty of our approach lies in its capacity to assimilate time-dependent pressure data and microseismicity into a cohesive framework, which not only identifies microseismic triggering fronts but also tracks fracture distribution during active injection. Besides, leveraging image log data and analysis our approach also provides another angle of the insights to solidate the fracture networks understanding and geomechanical impacts. Key results from our study include the detection of over 100 distinct fracture clusters across the injection site, with fracture orientations strongly correlated with the prevailing in-situ stress field.

CO2 storage and sequestration↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fracture Network Quantification during CO2 Injection

This is the conference paper accompanying an oral presentation at the ARMA 2025 (59th US Rock Mechanics/Geomechanics Symposium) Conference held in Santa Fe, New Mexico, June 8-11, 2025. Accurate mapping and quantification of these networks are essential to ensure the integrity of CO2 storage reservoirs, understand and reduce potential leakage, and maintain long-term environmental safety. This study presents a novel machine learning-driven approach, integrated with geomechanical analysis, to quantify fracture networks and assess their spatial distribution during CO2 injection. This paper combines microseismic monitoring data with principles of hydraulic diffusivity and geomechanical analysis to characterize reservoir scale fracture network. The novelty of our approach lies in its capacity to assimilate time-dependent pressure data and microseismicity into a cohesive framework, which not only identifies microseismic triggering fronts but also tracks fracture distribution during active injection. Besides, leveraging image log data and analysis our approach also provides another angle of the insights to solidate the fracture networks understanding and geomechanical impacts. Key results from our study include the detection of over 100 distinct fracture clusters across the injection site, with fracture orientations strongly correlated with the prevailing in-situ stress field.

CO2 storage and sequestration↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dynamical Downscaling of Earth System Model Data for Energy System Analysis

Assessing energy resources (e.g., solar, wind, and hydro) under future scenarios requires datasets with sufficient spatial and temporal detail to capture variability and extreme events. While global-scale Earth System Model (ESM) projections are widely used, their coarse resolution limits direct application to regional energy system analyses. Dynamical downscaling offers a robust approach to generate physically consistent, fine-scale datasets that better represent local atmospheric processes impacting energy resources. In this work, we present a two-stage approach for producing high-resolution historical and future projections over the contiguous United States (CONUS). First, we optimize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model configuration for energy-relevant variables - solar irradiance, wind speed, and precipitation - by conducting ERA5-driven simulations at 8-km and 28-km resolution. Multiple physics schemes and model configurations within the WRF are evaluated against observational datasets including the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and the Stage IV multi-radar/multi-sensor precipitation product for the CONUS domain. Using the best-performing configuration, we dynamically downscale MPI-ESM1-2-HR simulations for 2000-2060 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios at 4-km spatial and hourly temporal resolution. This presentation will provide a comprehensive analysis of the results from multiple numerical experiments and high-resolution ESM projections. In addition, we will discuss potential applications of our high-resolution datasets within the energy sector and outline future research avenues dedicated to evaluating how extreme weather events influence system performance and resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Using spatio-temporal graph neural networks to estimate fleet-wide photovoltaic performance degradation patterns

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) system performance is crucial for determining its feasibility as a power generation technology and financial asset. PV-based energy solutions offer a viable alternative to traditional energy resources due to their superior Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). A significant challenge in assessing the LCOE of PV systems lies in understanding the Performance Loss Rate (PLR) for large fleets of PV systems. Estimating the PLR of PV systems becomes increasingly important in the rapidly growing PV industry. Precise PLR estimation benefits PV users by providing real-time monitoring of PV module performance, while explainable PLR estimation assists PV manufacturers in studying and enhancing the performance of their products. However, traditional PLR estimation methods based on statistical models have notable drawbacks. Firstly, they require user knowledge and decision-making. Secondly, they fail to leverage spatial coherence for fleet-level analysis. Additionally, these methods inherently assume the linearity of degradation, which is not representative of real world degradation. To overcome these challenges, we propose a novel graph deep learning-based decomposition method called the Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Network for fleet-level PLR estimation (PV-stGNN-PLR). PV-stGNN-PLR decomposes the power timeseries data into aging and fluctuation components, utilizing the aging component to estimate PLR. PV-stGNN-PLR exploits spatial and temporal coherence to derive PLR estimation for all systems in a fleet and imposes flatness and smoothness regularization in loss function to ensure the successful disentanglement between aging and fluctuation. We have evaluated PV-stGNN-PLR on three simulated PV datasets consisting of 100 inverters from 5 sites. Experimental results show that PV-stGNN-PLR obtains a reduction of 33.9% and 35.1% on average in Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) and Euclidean Distance (ED) in PLR degradation pattern estimation compared to the state-of-the-art PLR estimation methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Apparatus and amendment of wind turbine blade impact detection and analysis

A multisensory system provides both temporal and spatial coverage capacities for auto-detection of bird collision events. The system includes an apparatus having a first circuitry to capture and store a series of images or video of a blade of a wind turbine; and a memory to store the images from the first circuitry. The apparatus also has one or more sensors to continuously sense vibration of the blade or for acoustic recordings; and a second circuitry to analyze the sensor data stream and/or the series of images or video to identify a cause of the vibration and to trigger the camera(s). A communication interface transmits data from the second circuitry to another device, wherein the second circuitry applies artificial intelligence or machine learning to control sensitivity of the one or more sensors.

Johnston, Matthew↗

DOE OSTI2024

Rapid subsurface analysis of frequency-domain thermoreflectance images with K-means clustering

K-means clustering analysis is applied to frequency-domain thermoreflectance (FDTR) hyperspectral image data to rapidly screen the spatial distribution of thermophysical properties at material interfaces. Performing FDTR while raster scanning a sample consisting of 8.6 μm of doped-silicon (Si) bonded to a doped-Si substrate identifies spatial variation in the subsurface bond quality. Routine thermal analysis at select pixels quantifies this variation in bond quality and allows assignment of bonded, partially bonded, and unbonded regions. Performing this same routine thermal analysis across the entire map, however, becomes too computationally demanding for rapid screening of bond quality. To address this, K-means clustering was used to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset from more than 20 000 pixel spectra to just K = 3 component spectra. The three component spectra were then used to express every pixel in the image through a least-squares minimized linear combination providing continuous interpolation between the components across spatially varying features, e.g., bonded to unbonded transition regions. Fitting the component spectra to the thermal model, thermal properties for each K cluster are extracted and then distributed according to the weighting established by the regressed linear combination. Thermophysical property maps are then constructed and capture significant variation in bond quality over 25 μm length scales. The use of K-means clustering to achieve these thermal property maps results in a 74-fold speed improvement over explicit fitting of every pixel.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertain Spatial Pattern of Future Land Use and Land Cover Change and Its Impacts on Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Over the Arctic–Boreal Region of North America

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) represents a key process of human-Earth system interaction and has profound impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling. As a key input for ecosystem models, future gridded LULCC data is typically spatially downscaled from regional LULCC projections by integrated assessment models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). The uncertainty associated with the different spatial downscaling methods and its impacts on the subsequent model projections have been historically ignored and rarely examined. This study investigated this problem using two representative spatial downscaling methods and focused on their impacts on the carbon cycle over the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) domain, where extensive LULCC is expected. Specifically, we used the Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS) and the Demeter model to generate 0.25° gridded LULCC data (i.e., LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , respectively) with the same input of regional LULCC projections from GCAM, under both the low (i.e., SSP126) and high (i.e., SSP585) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The two sets of downscaled LULCC were used to drive the Community Land Model version 5 and prognostically simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics over the 21st century. The results suggest large spatial-temporal differences between LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , and the spatial distributions of the needleleaf evergreen boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub, and C3 arctic grass are particularly different under both SSP126 and SSP585. Additionally, the spatiotemporal differences are larger under SSP126 than SSP585, due to more intensive LULCC under SSP126 than SSP585 from GCAM projection. The differences in LULCC further lead to large discrepancies in the spatial patterns of projected gross primary productivity, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem exchange, which represent more than 79% of the contributions of future LULCC in 2100. Additionally, the difference in carbon flux under SSP126 is generally larger than those under SSP585. This study highlights the importance of considering the uncertainties induced by the spatial downscaling process in future LULCC projections and carbon cycle simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Biophysical Modeling and Image Analysis: Application to Neuro-Oncology

Central nervous system (CNS) tumors come with vastly heterogeneous histologic, molecular, and radiographic landscapes, rendering their precise characterization challenging. The rapidly growing fields of biophysical modeling and radiomics have shown promise in better characterizing the molecular, spatial, and temporal heterogeneity of tumors. Integrative analysis of CNS tumors, including clinically acquired multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) and the inverse problem of calibrating biophysical models to mpMRI data, assists in identifying macroscopic quantifiable tumor patterns of invasion and proliferation, potentially leading to improved (a) detection/segmentation of tumor subregions and (b) computer-aided diagnostic/prognostic/predictive modeling. This article presents a summary of (a) biophysical growth modeling and simulation,(b) inverse problems for model calibration, (c) these models' integration with imaging workflows, and (d) their application to clinically relevant studies. We anticipate that such quantitative integrative analysis may even be beneficial in a future revision of the World Health Organization (WHO) classification for CNS tumors, ultimately improving patient survival prospects.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficient continuous Energy-Multigroup hybrid depletion scheme using the Shift Monte Carlo code. Part I: Energy condensation sensitivity analysis

Monte Carlo (MC) codes coupled to depletion solvers are increasingly used to provide high fidelity fuel cycle modeling capabilities. Here, these coupled depletion-MC tools produce accurate results in general but can experience nonphysical spatial oscillations when time steps are large or when a system’s dominance ratio approaches unity. Two substepping techniques have been developed previously to remedy and dampen these spatial oscillations without needing to reduce step sizes. The first approach relied on higher-order techniques to account for spectral changes within steps (extrapolation and interpolation techniques). The second approach used the first order perturbation (FOP) theory to account for the change in the one-group spatial flux distribution within steps. This paper develops a hybrid depletion methodology which, in a way, combines how the flux is handled in both substepping techniques. Specifically, the multigroup (MG) MC Shift code is used to update the flux distribution within steps rather than a one-group FOP solver. A fully reflected pincell is investigated, which is not spatially dependent in the MG representation. Thus, the analysis in this paper is an initial demonstration of hybrid depletion. An upcoming companion paper will focus on how the hybrid depletion dampens spatial oscillations. The hybrid depletion approach is verified to be consistent with previous constant extrapolation depletion (CED) methods. This paper finds that the hybrid CED exhibits some error in the eigenvalue and one group constants within macro steps. To address this discrepancy, a simple interpolation scheme (CELI) is investigated. This work found that CELI sufficiently addresses the discrepancy in spectrum for macro steps up to 100 days. Overall, this work demonstrates that the hybrid depletion method can significantly reduce the number of high fidelity MC executions in a MC-coupled depletion with an acceptable eigenvalue error.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Towards scanning nanostructure X-ray microscopy

This article demonstrates spatial mapping of the local and nanoscale structure of thin film objects using spatially resolved pair distribution function (PDF) analysis of synchrotron X-ray diffraction data. This is exemplified in a lab-on-chip combinatorial array of sample spots containing catalytically interesting nanoparticles deposited from liquid precursors using an ink-jet liquid-handling system. A software implementation is presented of the whole protocol, including an approach for automated data acquisition and analysis using the atomic PDF method. The protocol software can handle semi-automated data reduction, normalization and modeling, with user-defined recipes generating a comprehensive collection of metadata and analysis results. By slicing the collection using included functions, it is possible to build images of different contrast features chosen by the user, giving insights into different aspects of the local structure.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Influence of Climate on the Spatial Pattern of West Nile Virus Incidence in the United States

West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in humans in the United States. Since the introduction of the disease in 1999, incidence levels have stabilized in many regions, allowing for analysis of climate conditions that shape the spatial structure of disease incidence. Our goal was to identify the seasonal climate variables that influence the spatial extent and magnitude of WNV incidence in humans. We developed a predictive model of contemporary mean annual WNV incidence using U.S. county-level case reports from 2005 to 2019 and seasonally averaged climate variables. We used a random forest model that had an out-of-sample model performance of R 2 =0.61. Our model accurately captured the V-shaped area of higher WNV incidence that extends from states on the Canadian border south through the middle of the Great Plains. It also captured a region of moderate WNV incidence in the southern Mississippi Valley. The highest levels of WNV incidence were in regions with dry and cold winters and wet and mild summers. The random forest model classified counties with average winter precipitation levels <23.3 mm/month as having incidence levels over 11 times greater than those of counties that are wetter. Among the climate predictors, winter precipitation, fall precipitation, and winter temperature were the three most important predictive variables. We consider which aspects of the WNV transmission cycle climate conditions may benefit the most and argued that dry and cold winters are climate conditions optimal for the mosquito species key to amplifying WNV transmission. Our statistical model may be useful in projecting shifts in WNV risk in response to climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Scaling Automatic Vector Data Alignment to Satellite Imagery

Given the tremendous volume of accessible Earth Observation (EO) data, there is a need to develop scalable Geospatial Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI) solutions for time-sensitive applications. Scalability in this context refers to rapidly processing large-scale EO data using high performance computing resources. Accurate mapping of the built environment from remote sensing (RS) imagery has been one of the crucial components in GeoAI workflows for a wide spectrum of humanitarian applications. Derived vector data of built environment is often leveraged for disaster preparedness and response activities. However, factors such as differences in ortho-rectification, atmospheric conditions and human error, results in spatial misalignment between vector data and the timely available RS imagery. Model training for downstream tasks such as object detection, change analysis, etc., is negatively impacted due to such spatial misalignment. Although there has been progress towards automatic alignment of vector data, the lack of scalability remains an open research challenge. This paper proposes to leverage parallel computing to optimize an automatic vector data alignment workflow. It further employs CPU-level multi-core parallelism for improving the performance of the workflow for scalable built environment mapping. We report observations and discuss findings from the preliminary experiments performed on the Summit Supercomputer.

Potnis, Abhishek↗

DOE OSTI2021

Photoabsorption Imaging at Nanometer Scales Using Secondary Electron Analysis

Optical imaging with nanometer resolution offers fundamental insights into light–matter interactions. Traditional optical techniques are diffraction limited with a spatial resolution >100 nm. Optical super-resolution and cathodoluminescence techniques have higher spatial resolutions, but these approaches require the sample to fluoresce, which many materials lack. Here, we introduce photoabsorption microscopy using electron analysis, which involves spectrally specific photoabsorption that is locally probed using a scanning electron microscope, whereby a photoabsorption-induced surface photovoltage modulates the secondary electron emission. We demonstrate spectrally specific photoabsorption imaging with sub-20 nm spatial resolution using silicon, germanium, and gold nanoparticles. Theoretical analysis and Monte Carlo simulations are used to explain the basic trends of the photoabsorption-induced secondary electron signal. Based on our current experiments and this analysis, we expect that the spatial resolution can be further improved to a few nanometers, thereby offering a general approach for nanometer-scale optical spectroscopic imaging and material characterization.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of tow architecture variability in biaxially braided composite tubes

Spatial deviations in composite braid unit cell dimensions limit mechanical performance and are challenging to model. Full-field measurements of the irregular tow placement in biaxially braided composite tubes were obtained by digital image correlation. Analysis of the reconstructed tow paths showed long-range defects along the hoop direction with short-range defects dominating the biased tow direction. A route toward numerical simulation of the composite response is established by developing a 3D model of the composite using the measured tow trajectories. Finally, a comparison to previously-published triaxial braid results indicates axial tows work to constrain unit cells dimensions along the hoop direction.

3-Dimensional reinforcement↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integrating very-high-resolution UAS data and airborne imaging spectroscopy to map the fractional composition of Arctic plant functional types in Western Alaska

Widespread changes in vegetation cover and composition are driving strong impacts on Arctic ecosystem functioning and global climate feedbacks. An accurate characterization of tundra vegetation composition is required to understand how the Arctic will respond to future climate change. However, quantifying tundra vegetation composition over large areas is challenging as commonly-used satellite observations are too coarse, spatially and spectrally, to differentiate low-lying tundra vegetation types. Recent airborne and spaceborne imaging spectroscopy platforms provide better data to characterize vegetation composition. Yet, our ability to characterize vegetation composition with imaging spectroscopy remains largely unexplored in the Arctic, particularly due to a lack of ground observations needed to train and test classification models. To address this problem, we collected very-high-resolution (VHR, ~5 cm) unoccupied aerial system (UAS) imagery at three low-Arctic tundra sites located on the Seward Peninsula, western Alaska. In this paper, we examine the feasibility of integrating imagery from the UAS and the hyperspectral Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer, Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) airborne instrument to map the fractional composition of 12 key Arctic plant functional types (PFTs). To this end, we first mapped the 12 PFTs from our VHR UAS imagery using random forest classification. We then used these UAS-derived PFT maps as ground truth to develop partial least squares regression (PLSR) models to predict the fractional cover (FCover) of each PFT from AVIRIS-NG imagery. Further, we evaluated the performance of our PLSR models using reserved UAS samples, as well as by mapping PFT FCover and dominant PFT for large tundra landscapes. Our results show that 1) Arctic PFTs can be effectively mapped using VHR UAS imagery, with overall accuracy between 86% and 92%, 2) when the UAS mapped PFTs were used to inform PLSR scaling models, the FCover of the 12 PFTs could be effectively estimated from AVIRIS-NG imagery with a mean absolute error (MAE) <0.13, and 3) our PLSR models outperformed traditional, fully constrained least-squares (FCLS) linear mixture analysis and produced high-quality, spatially contiguous PFT FCover and PFT maps that captured vegetation spatial patterns with similar accuracy to those developed from UAS imagery. The developed PLSR models have the potential to be broadly applied for quantifying vegetation composition with AVIRIS-NG images to help monitor tundra vegetation dynamics and improve process-based modeling of tundra ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Explainable artificial intelligence relates perovskite luminescence images to current-voltage metrics

As the demand for low-cost, high-efficiency solar energy technologies grows, metal halide perovskite (MHP) solar cells have emerged as a promising candidate for next-generation photovoltaics due to their high power conversion efficiencies. However, their poor durability and issues with manufacturing consistency remain significant barriers to commercialization. In this work, we develop deep learning models to support materials characterization and provide insight into features and processes influencing performance. The models are trained using transfer learning of a pretrained model to predict relevant current-voltage (IV) metrics based on different combinations of input electroluminescence (EL) and photoluminescence (PL) images of MHP devices. We examine which image types are most informative in accurately predicting different IV metrics. Additionally, we use explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to provide insights into specific spatial features in the devices that drive differences in performance. We find that stabilized luminescence images (e.g. those collected after biasing the devices for at least 1 min) are better for predicting metrics of open-circuit voltage (by PL) and short-circuit current (by PL with EL), but that predicting fill factor and overall power output may use the time-evolution of EL images. Based on attribution masks generated by integrated gradients for each device performance metric, we further suggest different loss mechanisms associated with categories of large and small spatial defects. Overall, this case study highlights the potential applicability of XAI methodology for streamlining MHP device analysis and accelerating detailed understanding of the relationships between spatial defects and impacts on performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of Distributed Energy Storage as a Core Grid Infrastructure via Production Cost Modeling

Energy storage plays a pivotal role in enabling power system operation with more flexibility and resilience. Unlike current practice that considers energy storages as attached ancillary devices, this paper focuses on storages as a core infrastructure by looking at their spatial distribution in the system. A sensitivity analysis based on production cost modeling is conducted to demonstrate the benefits of distributed energy storages. First, the modeling of energy storages in production cost modeling is presented. Second, potential optimal locations of distributed energy storages in a power system are discussed. Finally, multiple scenarios with various numbers and locations of additional distributed energy storages in the WECC 2030 model are created. The production cost modeling results of these scenarios show that distributed energy storages have higher utilization compared to the centralized ES units and therefore provide significantly more benefits in terms of reduction in generation cost, emission cost, and volatility of location marginal prices. A saturation effect is observed suggesting the selection of optimal locations will further improve the benefits.

Nguyen, Quan H.↗