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At least 343 records · Page 19

Standardizing an End-to-end Accounting Service

Currently there are no space system standards available for space agencies to accomplish end-to-end accounting. Such a standard does not exist for spacecraft operations nor for tracing the relationship between the mission planning activities, the command sequences designed to perform those activities, the commands formulated to initiate those activities and the mission data and specifically the mission data products created by those activities. In order for space agencies to cross-support one another for data accountability/data tracing and for inter agency spacecraft to interoperate with each other, an international CCSDS standard for end-to-end data accountability/tracing needs to be developed. We will first describe the end-to-end accounting service model and functionality that supports the service. This model will describe how science plans that are ultimately transformed into commands can be associated with the telemetry products generated as a result of their execution. Moreover, the interaction between end-to-end accounting and service management will be explored. Finally, we will show how the standard end-to-end accounting service can be applied to a real life flight project i.e., the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter project.

recommendations↗

An Investigation Into Transecting Satellites in Future Space Traffic Management Scenarios

The number of satellites expected to populate the near-Earth space environment is set to dramatically increase in the coming decade as new large constellations are approved and deployed. Current strategies for deploying new batches of these satellites often involve launching into an initial orbit, and then performing apogee raising maneuvers to reach a target altitude. Similarly, end-of-life planning for these constellation satellites can consist of de-orbit burns that lower perigee to permit disposal via re-entry. Both the raising and de-orbiting maneuvers can result in the individual satellites traveling in transecting orbits that have the potential to cross other spacecraft trajectories. While individual large constellations may be able to coexist in separate altitude and inclination bands, having thousands of satellites moving between these bands as new satellites are added and old satellites are removed could pose additional collision risks. Similar concerns have been raised regarding the impact that large numbers of university-class CubeSats might have in terms of their overall collision risk, especially as these satellites typically do not have propulsion systems for active maneuvering. To assess the impact that transecting satellites might have on future space traffic management strategies, this study explored a variety of realistic future scenarios using a high-fidelity simulation tool. The model can simulate the orbit of tens of thousands of resident space objects (RSOs) simultaneously, to include active satellites, debris, rocket bodies, or even future hypothetical satellite constellations, using a realistic force model that incorporates non-spherical gravity, atmospheric drag, and solar radiation pressure, as well as station-keeping. The simulation can be customized to accommodate different methods of calculating the probability of collision, as well as the process for determining probability ellipsoids and screening volumes. This makes it possible to replicate, and compare, different processes used by different spacecraft operators and space situational awareness (SSA) providers. As the model is run forward in time, each conjunction event is recorded, allowing for the analysis of statistics and meta-data related to these events, providing insight into the nature and frequency of potential collisions, such as whether are they active or passive objects, what size are the two objects, and who owns the objects (if known). This information makes it possible to characterize how changes to the status quo affect the number and type of conjunctions that occur, as well as the distributional effects on various types of satellite operators. To assess the general risks that transecting satellites might pose for hypothetical future space object environments, approximately 60,000 new large constellation satellites were considered, in addition to the existing catalog of approximately 7800 known resident space objects (RSOs), over a simulation period of one year. The results indicate that the future space environment will introduce a non-linear increase in conjunction events as the number of RSOs also increase. This will require adjustments to spacecraft fuel budgets in order to conduct the avoidance maneuvers necessary to minimize collision risk, both for existing and new satellites. This increase is due in large part to the higher density of RSOs and the overlap between some constellation orbits. Current catalog objects were shown to require three times more ∆V for collision avoidance (CA) maneuvers in the simulated future environment, and some constellation spacecraft were estimated to devote the majority of their annual ∆V to CA. The impact of small satellites was found to be proportional for the current space environment, and actually decreased in terms of percentage for the future scenario, suggesting that small satellites do not pose an outsized collision risk. Lastly, transecting satellites were found to contribute thousands of additional conjunctions outside of their operational orbit, and may require up to an additional 5% in CA maneuver fuel allocation.

conjunction assessment↗

James Webb Space Telescope Navigation Optimization Challenges

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is a NASA flagship mission launched on December 25, 2021. The early orbit phase was highlighted by three midcourse correction burns that were performed to maneuver the vehicle into a libration orbit at the second Sun-Earth-Moon (SEM) libration point (L2). During the coast to L2, the vehicle’s primary observatory and sunshield were deployed. Once the tennis-court-sized sunshield was unfurled and tensioned into place, the large area exposed to solar radiation pressure (SRP) dictated that the SRP force model would need to account for the vehicle’s geometry, reflective properties, and orientation relative to the Sun. Following the insertion of JWST into its L2 libration orbit on January 24, 2022, the commissioning phase for the vehicle’s observatory commenced along with the first cycle of routine station-keeping maneuvers. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center’s Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) provides navigation services for the JWST mission. The FDF serves as the prime or backup navigation operations center for more than 30 active missions spanning a wide array of flight regimes performing orbit determination, maneuver planning, trajectory optimization, and tracking data evaluation. Definitive orbit determination for JWST is performed by the FDF using an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to estimate the vehicle’s trajectory and reflective properties using Deep Space Network (DSN) TRK-2-34 tracking data and spacecraft attitude telemetry. For the purposes of orbit prediction and station-keeping maneuver targeting, the sensitivity of the SRP force to the vehicle’s orientation requires that predictive attitude information must be incorporated to generate accurate orbit predictions and maneuver plans. Predictive attitude plans are provided to the FDF by the JWST Spacecraft Operations Center (SOC). Short-term (28 day) orbit predictions are propagated using a Short Range Attitude Plan (SRAP) to model the vehicle’s future attitude states for up to a week. SRAP attitude data is highly reliable, as it reflects finalized planned attitude states that the vehicle will be commanded to attain during the ensuing week. A Long Range Attitude Plan (LRAP) can be implemented to model predicted attitude states beyond one week, but these predictions are tentative and subject to revision due to changes in science operations plans. Instead, a conservative approach of applying a Sun-Pointing Neutral (SPN) attitude configuration is utilized for long-term (2 year) orbit predictions where reliable planned attitude data is not available. SPN attitude mode aligns the net SRP force along the JWST-to-Sun vector where it becomes independent of the vehicle’s angle of rotation about this vector, defined as the Sun yaw. Given the dynamic instability of the libration orbit, station-keeping thrust must be applied in either the sunward or anti-sunward direction to balance the resulting orbit. The attitude constraints of the vehicle also impose limits on the available pointing directions for station-keeping thrusters. The thrusters cannot be aligned with the optimal pointing direction for sunward maneuvers, rendering sunward maneuvers to be significantly less fuel efficient than anti-sunward maneuvers. Consequently, station-keeping maneuvers must be targeted to balance the orbit while ensuring that the next maneuver will also be performed in the anti-sunward direction to optimize propellant usage. When targeting a station-keeping maneuver, the attitude and SRP modeling configuration which is applied to the predicted post-maneuver trajectory will dictate the direction of the subsequent station-keeping maneuver, assuming nominal propulsion system performance. If the predicted post-maneuver attitude states result in an SRP model which under-predicts the cumulative SRP impact on the post-maneuver orbit, a targeted anti-sunward maneuver will be larger than necessary and the next maneuver will need to be executed sunward in order to compensate. In contrast, an anti-sunward maneuver which is targeted using an SRP model which over-predicts the cumulative SRP impact will achieve station-keeping while ensuring that the next maneuver will likewise be performed anti-sunward. For this reason, station-keeping maneuvers are targeted while applying the SPN attitude mode, as this mode entails the largest possible SRP area cross-section and therefore a larger modeled cumulative SRP impact. This paper documents the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center’s FDF support for JWST on-orbit operations and the analysis projects undertaken utilizing the experiences and data accumulated throughout the first full year of routine science operations. The results of these analysis efforts have been used to implement improvements to orbit prediction accuracy and maneuver efficiency which have the potential to prolong the lifespan of JWST to continue to conduct ground-breaking infrared astronomy for decades to come.

Flight Dynamics↗

Optimization of Maneuver Execution for Landsat-7 Routine Operations

Multiple mission constraints were satisfied during a lengthy, strategic ascent phase. Once routine operations begin, the ongoing concern of maintaining mission requirements becomes an immediate priority. The Landsat-7 mission has tight longitude control box and Earth imaging that requires sub-satellite descending nodal equator crossing times to occur in a narrow 30minute range fifteen (15) times daily. Operationally, spacecraft maneuvers must'be executed properly to maintain mission requirements. The paper will discuss the importance of optimizing the altitude raising and plane change maneuvers, amidst known constraints, to satisfy requirements throughout mission lifetime. Emphasis will be placed not only on maneuver size and frequency but also on changes in orbital elements that impact maneuver execution decisions. Any associated trade-off arising from operations contingencies will be discussed as well. Results of actual altitude and plane change maneuvers are presented to clarify actions taken.

Cox, E. Lucien, Jr.↗

VML 3.0 Reactive Sequencing Objects and Matrix Math Operations for Attitude Profiling

VML (Virtual Machine Language) has been used as the sequencing flight software on over a dozen JPL deep-space missions, most recently flying on GRAIL and JUNO. In conjunction with the NASA SBIR entitled "Reactive Rendezvous and Docking Sequencer", VML version 3.0 has been enhanced to include object-oriented element organization, built-in queuing operations, and sophisticated matrix / vector operations. These improvements allow VML scripts to easily perform much of the work that formerly would have required a great deal of expensive flight software development to realize. Autonomous turning and tracking makes considerable use of new VML features. Profiles generated by flight software are managed using object-oriented VML data constructs executed in discrete time by the VML flight software. VML vector and matrix operations provide the ability to calculate and supply quaternions to the attitude controller flight software which produces torque requests. Using VML-based attitude planning components eliminates flight software development effort, and reduces corresponding costs. In addition, the direct management of the quaternions allows turning and tracking to be tied in with sophisticated high-level VML state machines. These state machines provide autonomous management of spacecraft operations during critical tasks like a hypothetic Mars sample return rendezvous and docking. State machines created for autonomous science observations can also use this sort of attitude planning system, allowing heightened autonomy levels to reduce operations costs. VML state machines cannot be considered merely sequences - they are reactive logic constructs capable of autonomous decision making within a well-defined domain. The state machine approach enabled by VML 3.0 is progressing toward flight capability with a wide array of applicable mission activities.

VML (Virtual Machine Language)↗

Modeling Meteor Flares for Spacecraft Safety

NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) is tasked with assisting spacecraft operators and engineers in quantifying the threat the meteoroid environment poses to their individual missions. A more complete understanding of the meteoroid environment for this application requires extensive observations. One manner by which the MEO observes meteors is with dedicated video camera systems that operate nightly. Connecting the observational data from these video cameras to the relevant physical properties of the ablating meteoroids, however, is subject to sizable observational and theoretical uncertainties. Arguably the most troublesome theoretical uncertainty in ablation is a model for the structure of meteoroids, as observations clearly show behaviors wholly inconsistent with meteoroids being homogeneous spheres. Further complicating the interpretation of the observations in the context of spacecraft risk is the ubiquitous process of fragmentation and the flares it can produce, which greatly muddles any attempts to estimating initial meteoroid masses. In this talk a method of estimating the mass distribution of fragments in flaring meteors using high resolution video observations will be dis- cussed. Such measurements provide an important step in better understanding of the structure and fragmentation process of the parent meteoroids producing these flares, which in turn may lead to better constraints on meteoroid masses and reduced uncertainties in spacecraft risk.

Ehlert, Steven↗

Periodic attitude control of a slowly spinning spacecraft.

A periodic attitude control system is presented which permits control of secular errors of a slowly spinning spacecraft operating in a high disturbance environment. Attitude errors of the spin-axis are detected by sun sensors (or rate gyros) and are controlled by a periodic control law which modulates external control torques generated by mass expulsion torquers. Attitude stability during the uncontrolled periods is obtained passively via the vehicle spin momentum. Equations of motion, a system block diagram, and design parameters are presented for a typical spacecraft application. Simulation results are included which demonstrate the feasibility of the novel control concept. Salient features of the periodic control approach are implementation simplicity, excellent response, and a propellant utilization efficiency greater than 75 percent.

Todosiev, E. P.↗

Spike: Artificial intelligence scheduling for Hubble space telescope

Efficient utilization of spacecraft resources is essential, but the accompanying scheduling problems are often computationally intractable and are difficult to approximate because of the presence of numerous interacting constraints. Artificial intelligence techniques were applied to the scheduling of the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope (HST). This presents a particularly challenging problem since a yearlong observing program can contain some tens of thousands of exposures which are subject to a large number of scientific, operational, spacecraft, and environmental constraints. New techniques were developed for machine reasoning about scheduling constraints and goals, especially in cases where uncertainty is an important scheduling consideration and where resolving conflicts among conflicting preferences is essential. These technique were utilized in a set of workstation based scheduling tools (Spike) for HST. Graphical displays of activities, constraints, and schedules are an important feature of the system. High level scheduling strategies using both rule based and neural network approaches were developed. While the specific constraints implemented are those most relevant to HST, the framework developed is far more general and could easily handle other kinds of scheduling problems. The concept and implementation of the Spike system are described along with some experiments in adapting Spike to other spacecraft scheduling domains.

Johnston, Mark↗

Technology development and demonstration of a low thrust resistojet thruster

Three thrusters were fabricated to definitized thruster drawings using new rhenium vapor deposition technology. Two of the thrusters were operated using ammonia as propellant and one was operated using hydrogen propellant for performance determination. All demonstrated consistent operational specific impulse performance while demonstrating thermal performance better than the development units from which they evolved. Two of the thrusters were subjected to environmental structural testing including vibration, acceleration and shock loading to specifications. Both of the thrusters subjected to the environmental tests passed all required tests. The third, spare, thruster was introduced into the life test portion of the program. Two thrusters were then subjected to a life cycling test program under typical spacecraft operating power levels. During the life test sequence, the hydrogen thruster accrued 720 operating life test cycles, more than 370 on-off cycles and 365 hours of powered up time. The ammonia accrued approximately 380 on-off cycles and 392.2 on time hours of operation during the 720 cycling hour test. Both thrusters completed the scheduled operational life test in reasonably good condition, structurally integral and capable of indefinite further operation.

Pfeifer, G. R.↗

Solar Array Disturbances to Spacecraft Pointing During the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Mission

The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), the first spacecraft to support NASA s return to the Moon, launched on June 18, 2009 from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station aboard an Atlas V launch vehicle. It was initially inserted into a direct trans-lunar trajectory to the Moon. After a five day transit to the Moon, LRO was inserted into the Lunar orbit and successfully lowered to a low altitude elliptical polar orbit for spacecraft commissioning. Successful commissioning was completed in October 2009 when LRO was placed in its near circular mission orbit with an approximate altitude of 50km. LRO will spend at least one year orbiting the Moon, collecting lunar environment science and mapping data, utilizing a suite of seven instruments to enable future human exploration. The objective is to provide key science data necessary to facilitate human return to the Moon as well as identification of opportunities for future science missions. LRO's instrument suite will provide the high resolution imaging data with sub-meter accuracy, highly accurate lunar cartographic maps, mineralogy mapping, amongst other science data of interest. LRO employs a 3-axis stabilized attitude control system (ACS) whose primary control mode, the "Observing Mode", provides Lunar nadir, off-nadir, and inertial fine pointing for the science data collection and instrument calibration. This controller combines the capability of fine pointing with on-demand large angle full-sky attitude reorientation. It provides simplicity of spacecraft operation as well as additional flexibility for science data collection. A conventional suite of ACS components is employed in the Observing Mode to meet the pointing and control objectives. Actuation is provided by a set of four reaction wheels developed in-house at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). Attitude feedback is provided by a six state Kalman filter which utilizes two SELEX Galileo Star Trackers for attitude updates, and a single Honeywell Miniature Inertial Measurement Unit (MIMU) to provide body rates for attitude propagation. Rate is computed by differentiating accumulated angle provided by the MIMU. The Observing Mode controller is required to maintain fine pointing while a large fully-articulated solar array (SA) maintains its panel normal to the solar incidence. This paper describes the disturbances to the attitude control resulting from the SA articulation. Observing Mode performance in the presence of this disturbance was assessed while the spacecraft was in an initial elliptical low altitude orbit during the commissioning phase, which started about two weeks after launch and lasted for 90 days. LRO demonstrated excellent pointing performance during Observing Mode nadir and inertial attitude target operations during this phase. Transient LRO attitude errors observed during commissioning resulted primarily from three sources, Diviner instrument calibrations, RW zero crossings, and SA articulation. Even during times of considerable disturbance from SA articulation, the attitude errors were maintained below the statistical attitude error requirement level of 15 arc-sec (3 sigma).

Calhoun, Philip↗

Astro-biological Exploration of Ocean Worlds, Enabled by an RPS Inside a Pressure Vessel

Exploring Ocean and Ice Worlds could help us to understand the origin and evolution of life in the universe. In our solar system we have identified six Ocean and Ice Worlds, namely Earth, Europa, Ganymede, Callisto, Enceladus, and Titan. Other potential targets include Dione, Triton, and Pluto. As documented in the Planetary Decadal Survey [1] and the NASA Roadmap to Ocean Worlds [2], these worlds are compelling science destinations, with oceans situated below their tens of kilometers thick ice shells. To reach them we need a new exploration paradigm with novel technological solutions. Key technological challenges revolve around the power for the probe and for melting, as well as protecting the payload against the extreme environments, including high pressure, low temperature, corrosion, and radiation. Far away from the Sun, and melted into the ice, we may only rely on long-lived internal power generation. Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) with either static or dynamic conversion, utilizing the heat of decaying Plutonium-238, could be good candidates. We need suitable payloads that are protected and could survive the extreme environments, as well as enabling power and thermal systems for melting through the ice shield and to swim in the ocean below the ice. RPS could support the probe’s instruments and sub-systems, as well as provide a heat source for melting the ice while keeping the components at operating temperatures. Mitigating the external pressure while immersing inside the ice shell, and in the ocean, would require a new RPS design that operates inside a Pressure Vessel. In our paper, we will discuss general mission architecture trades and the sizing of a next generation RPS housed in a pressure vessel, broadly applicable to any of the Ocean Worlds satellites of interest. Through a technology focused approach, we address interconnected design and mission architecture aspects, including considerations for: the RPS and the Pressure Vessel; extreme environmental constraints; g-load tolerance; power and thermal systems sizing for science measurements; spacecraft operations through all mission phases; subsurface mobility; and planetary protection. The findings will inform the science community on instrument accommodation possibilities; the mission planning community on possible mission concepts; and the RPS development community on the science driven technology considerations.

Donitz, Benjamin P.↗

Simplified sonic-boom prediction

Sonic boom overpressures and signature duration may be predicted for the entire affected ground area for a wide variety of supersonic airplane configurations and spacecraft operating at altitudes up to 76 km in level flight or in moderate climbing or descending flight paths. The outlined procedure relies to a great extent on the use of charts to provide generation and propagation factors for use in relatively simple expressions for signature calculation. Computational requirements can be met by hand-held scientific calculators, or even by slide rules. A variety of correlations of predicted and measured sonic-boom data for airplanes and spacecraft serve to demonstrate the applicability of the simplified method.

Carlson, H. W.↗

America in Space: The First Decade - Spacecraft Power

Electrical power is necessary for every manned and unmanned spacecraft, with the exception of a few special-purpose Earth satellites. It is the reliable flow and availability of electrical power that allows man to extend his personal ventures safely beyond the atmosphere and keeps unmanned scientific payloads serving as useful tools for space exploration and applications. Electric power is essential to space communications, guidance, control, tracking, telemetry, life-support systems, sensors, data handling and storage, and to assure the proper functioning of countless experimental and housekeeping systems and subsystems aboard operating spacecraft. It remains the task of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, since NASA's founding in 1958, to fully investigate the chemical, nuclear and solar sources of energy and to see how best they can be converted to reliable spacecraft power. The research and technology of power-generating systems illustrates a seldom recognized goal of NASA - to assure this Nation a freedom of choice; the choice, in this case, being that of going where we wish to go in the atmosphere or in space. Technical capability is the key to such freedom. Power requirements and profiles are reviewed and power sources, including batteries, fuel cells, solar cell, RTGs and nuclear fission power plants in space, are highlighted.

Corliss, William R.↗

EOS/AMSU: A Blackbody Spacecraft Test Targets Operation and Maintenance Manual

This report describes the spacecraft test targets and readout console as described in section 5.3.3 of the performance specification S-480-80. The spacecraft targets are to be used to provide a well-known radiometric reference for testing the functionality of the AMSU-A instruments at the spacecraft contractor's facility.

Source record↗

An Integrated Platform for Mission Performance: Goddard Space Flight Center's Meta Information System

Successful management of NASA Goddard Space Flight Centers portfolio of mission projects (i.e. spacecraft, spacecraft instruments / subsystems, and ground systems) depends upon numerous processes, data and information resources coming together throughout the life-cycle of the projects to enable sound decision-making, risk reduction, conformance with requirements and continual improvement. In the summer of 2012, GSFC SMA management recognized that the set of legacy data systems used to support the SMA mission and responsibilities at GSFC were not effective, integrated nor on par with best practices. Accordingly, GSFC SMA management launched a project to transform the GSFC electronic management system to create and deploy an integrated, state-of-the-market information system for process performance, data management and analytics that is currently operating in support of GSFC overall mission performance. The information system, known as Meta, provides controlled, process-based applications, integrated data management, and analytics for a robust set of integrated applications. Since the inception of the project, a lean, award-winning SMA project team has thus far designed, configured and managed the system to serve as an integrated platform for 18 applications that support key processes for GSFC and the Science Mission Directorate at NASA headquarters, such as internal Management System assessments, Supplier Assessments, Supplier Research & Analysis, Problem Reporting for in-house mission projects, On-orbit Anomaly Reporting for GSFC-operated spacecraft, GSFC Project Life-Cycle Reviews, Risk Management and Reporting, and SMA Project Team Reporting. The system has experienced steady growth in utilization with 1,917 users (NASA employees and support contractor personnel) and 44 gigabytes of data and related files managed by the system as of the end of April 2018. Overall, Meta has achieved increasing levels of process management and real-time data / information integration to enable improved process performance, richer analytics and informed decision-making. This paper will present and examine the need, goals, approach and design driving the management and operation of the Meta information system and its ongoing growth as an integrated platform for advancing NASA mission performance.

Integration↗

Enhancing the Cassini Mission Through FP Applications After Launch

Although rigorous pre-emptive measures are taken to preclude failures and anomalous conditions from occurring in JPL spacecraft missions prior to launch, unforeseeable problems can still surface after liftoff. In the case of the Cassini/Huygens Mission-to-Saturn spacecraft, several problems were observed post-launch: 1) immediately after takeoff, the collected engineering/science data stored on the Solid State Recorders (SSR) contained a significantly higher number of corrupted bits than was expected (considerably over spec) due to human error in the memory mapping of these devices, 2) numerous Solid State Power Switches (SSPS) sporadically tripped off throughout the mission due to cosmic ray bombardment from the unique space environment, and 3) false assumptions in the pressure regulator design in combination with missing heritage test data led to inaccurate design conclusions, causing the issuance of two waivers for the regulator to close properly (a potentially mission catastrophic single-point failure which occurred 24 days after launch) - amongst other problems. For Cassini, some of these anomalies led to arduous work-arounds or required continuous monitoring of telemetry variables by the ground-based Spacecraft Operations Flight Support (SOFS) team in order to detect and fix fault occurrences as they happened. Fortunately, sufficient funding and schedule margin allowed several Fault Protection (FP) solutions to be implemented into post-launch Flight Software (FSW) uploads to help resolve these issues autonomously, reducing SOFS ground support efforts while improving anomaly recovery time in order to preserve maximum science capture. This paper details the FP applications used to resolve the above issues as well as to optimize solutions for several other problems experienced by the Cassini spacecraft during its fight, in order to enhance the spacecraft's overall mission success throughout the 18 years of its 20 year expedition to and within the Saturnian system.

fault protection↗

Modeling Contamination Migration on the Chandra X-Ray Observatory - III

During its first 16 years of operation, the cold (about -60 C) optical blocking filter of the Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer (ACIS), aboard the Chandra X-ray Observatory, has accumulated a growing layer of molecular contamination that attenuates low-energy x rays. Over the past few years, the accumulation rate, spatial distribution, and composition have changed. This evolution has motivated further analysis of contamination migration within and near the ACIS cavity, in part to evaluate potential bake-out scenarios intended to reduce the level of contamination. Keywords: X-ray astronomy, CCDs, contamination, modeling and simulation, spacecraft operations

astrophysics↗

An Evaluation of the Accuracy of Meteor Shower Forecasts

Brought into being by the recent Leonid meteor storms, meteor shower forecasts are now regarded by many spacecraft projects as necessary inputs into the planning of spacecraft operations. We compare the shower forecasts made by various researchers over the past six years to actual shower observations in an attempt to create an overall picture of forecast accuracy, specifically focusing on the three aspects most important to space vehicles: 1) the time of shower maximum, 2) the half-width (duration), and 3) the maximum Zenith Hourly Rate (ZHR). It will be noted that, while the times of maxima are generally predicted to within several minutes, the peak ZHRs are often overestimated and shower half-widths are frequently not even calculated. The difficulties involved in converting shower ZHRs into the meteoroid fluxes needed to assess spacecraft risk are also discussed.

Cooke, W.↗