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At least 343 records · Page 19

NASA's New Technology Reporting System: A Review and Future Prospects

This report represents a systematic effort to describe how NASA's new technology reporting system operates today, and how that system might be enhanced. Although the system has run for more than two decades, it is not well documented in terms of organization, operational practices, or other program benchmarks. The study seeks to identify and assess incentives or disincentives to reporting, program management, program follow through, and the feasibility of various means for improving the general process. Initially, it was hoped that the study team might uncover the kind of information that would permit the determination of some 'average' sequence of events (or a time line) from the point of identifying a solution to technical 'need' to the point where its solution was actually reported to NASA. Information regarding this objective proved to be too elusive, primarily because early probes revealed that con- tractor awareness of the new technology requirements generally was too poor to provide useful information. The report that follows is based primarily upon documents furnished by NASA Headquarters, by Field Center technology utilization officers, and interviews with persons knowledgeable about the system. Visits were made to seven Field Centers: Ames Research Center, Goddard Space Flight Center, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Johnson Space Center, Langley Research Center, Lewis Research Center, and Marshall Space Flight Center. Other documents were furnished by officials of major aerospace corporations. Detailed interviews were conducted with Field Center technology utilization officials, project engineers or scientists, patent counsels, and other Field Center officials who had knowledge about the new technology reporting system. Interviews also were conducted with knowledgeable officials from a number of the primary aerospace companies. Numeric data was obtained from regular NASA reports, from original sources such as, NASA Tech Briefs, or from contractor reports. I am indebted to dozens of persons in both NASA and industry who took time to assist in the data collection by being interviewed, and through answering follow up questions on the telephone. Individuals interviewed and their affiliations are shown in Appendix A. I am most grateful to them for their kind assistance. A note of thanks is due to the other members of the DRI study team: Jody Briles, Kathy Hirst, and Joel Johnson. The responsibility for this report, its accuracy, and the nature of the observations and conclusions rest solely with the author. Text or citations in the numbered footnotes are to be found at the end of each chapter.

Chapman, Richard L.↗

Portable Intravenous Fluid Production Device For Ground Use Project

Several medical conditions require the administration of intravenous (IV) fluids,but limitations of mass, volume, shelf-life, transportation, and local resources can restrict the availability of these important fluids. Such limitations are expected in long-duration space exploration missions and in remote or austere places on Earth. This design uses regular drinking water that is pumped through two filters to produce, in minutes, sterile, ultrapure water that meets the stringent quality standards of the United States Pharmacopeia for Water for Injection (Total Bacteria, Conductivity, Endo - toxins, Total Organic Carbon). The device weighs 2.2 lb (1 kg) and is 10 in. long, 5 in. wide, and 3 in. high (≈25, 13, and 7.5 cm, respectively) in its storage configuration. This handheld device produces one liter of medical-grade water in 21 minutes. Total production capacity for this innovation is expected to be in the hundreds of liters. The device contains one battery powered electric mini-pump. Alternatively, a manually powered pump can be attached and used. Drinking water enters the device from a source water bag, flows through two filters, and final sterile production water exits into a sealed, medical-grade collection bag. The collection bag contains pre-placed crystalline salts to mix with product water to form isotonic intravenous medical solutions. Alternatively, a hypertonic salt solution can be injected into a filled bag. The filled collection bag is detached from the device and is ready for use or storage. This device currently contains one collection bag, but a manifold of several pre-attached bags or replacement of single collection bags under sterile needle technique is possible for the production of multiple liters. The entire system will be flushed, sealed, and radiation-sterilized. Operation of the device is easy and requires minimal training. Drinking water is placed into the collection bag. Inline stopcock flow valves at the source and collection bags are opened, and the mini-pump is turned on by a switch to begin fluid flow. When the collection bag is completely filled with the medical- grade water, the pump can be turned off. The pump is designed so it cannot pump air, and overfilling of the collection bag with fluid is avoided by placing an equal amount of water in the source bag. Backflow is avoided by inline check valves. The filled collection bag is disconnected from its tubing and is ready for use. The source bag can be refilled for production of multiple liters, or the source bag can be replaced with an input tube that can be placed in a larger potable water source if the device is attended. The device functions in all orientations independent of any gravity fields. In addition to creating IV fluids, the device produces medical-grade water, which can be used for mixing with medications for injection, reconstituting freeze-dried blood products for injection, or for wound hydration or irrigation. Potential worldwide use is expected with medical activities in environments that have limited resources, storage, or resupply such as in military field operations, humanitarian relief efforts, submarines, commercial cruise ships, etc.

Technology Portfolio System↗

Optimal guidance law development for an advanced launch system

A regular perturbation analysis is presented. Closed-loop simulations were performed with a first order correction including all of the atmospheric terms. In addition, a method was developed for independently checking the accuracy of the analysis and the rather extensive programming required to implement the complete first order correction with all of the aerodynamic effects included. This amounted to developing an equivalent Hamiltonian computed from the first order analysis. A second order correction was also completed for the neglected spherical Earth and back-pressure effects. Finally, an analysis was begun on a method for dealing with control inequality constraints. The results on including higher order corrections do show some improvement for this application; however, it is not known at this stage if significant improvement will result when the aerodynamic forces are included. The weak formulation for solving optimal problems was extended in order to account for state inequality constraints. The formulation was tested on three example problems and numerical results were compared to the exact solutions. Development of a general purpose computational environment for the solution of a large class of optimal control problems is under way. An example, along with the necessary input and the output, is given.

Calise, Anthony J.↗

[MaRS Project]

The Space Exploration Division of the Safety and Mission Assurances Directorate is responsible for reducing the risk to Human Space Flight Programs by providing system safety, reliability, and risk analysis. The Risk & Reliability Analysis branch plays a part in this by utilizing Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) tools to identify possible types of failure and effective solutions. A continuous effort of this branch is MaRS, or Mass and Reliability System, a tool that was the focus of this internship. Future long duration space missions will have to find a balance between the mass and reliability of their spare parts. They will be unable take spares of everything and will have to determine what is most likely to require maintenance and spares. Currently there is no database that combines mass and reliability data of low level space-grade components. MaRS aims to be the first database to do this. The data in MaRS will be based on the hardware flown on the International Space Stations (ISS). The components on the ISS have a long history and are well documented, making them the perfect source. Currently, MaRS is a functioning excel workbook database; the backend is complete and only requires optimization. MaRS has been populated with all the assemblies and their components that are used on the ISS; the failures of these components are updated regularly. This project was a continuation on the efforts of previous intern groups. Once complete, R&M engineers working on future space flight missions will be able to quickly access failure and mass data on assemblies and components, allowing them to make important decisions and tradeoffs.

Aruljothi, Arunvenkatesh↗

Thermal Field Imaging Using Ultrasound

It is often desirable to be able to determine the temperature field in the interiors of opaque fluids forced into convection by externally imposed temperature gradients. To measure the temperature at a point in an opaque fluid in the usual fashion requires insertion of a probe, and to determine the full field therefore requires either the ability to move this probe or the introduction of multiple probes. Neither of these solutions is particularly satisfactory, although they can lead to quite accurate measurements. As an alternative we have investigated the use of ultrasound as a relatively non-intrusive probe of the temperature field in convecting opaque fluids. The temperature dependence of the sound velocity can be sufficiently great to permit a determination of the temperature from timing the traversal of an ultrasound pulse across a chamber. In this paper we will present our results on convecting flows of transparent and opaque fluids. Our experimental cells consist of relatively narrow rectangular cavities made of thermally insulating materials on the sides, and metal top and bottom plates. The ultrasound transducer is powered by a pulser/receiver, the signal output of which goes to a very high speed signal averager. The average of several hundred to several thousand signals is then sent to a computer for storage and analysis. The experimental procedure is to establish a convective flow by imposing a vertical temperature gradient on the chamber, and then to measure, at several regularly spaced locations, the transit time for an ultrasound pulse to traverse the chamber horizontally (parallel to the convecting rolls) and return to the transducer. The transit time is related to the temperature of the fluid through which the sound pulse travels. Knowing the relationship between transit time and temperature (determined in a separate experiment), we can extract the average temperature across the chamber at that location. By changing the location of the transducer it is then possible to find the average temperature at different locations along the chamber, thereby determining the temperature profile along the system. (In the future we will construct an array of transducers. This will give us the capability to determine the temperature profile much more rapidly than at present, an important consideration if time-dependent phenomena are to be studied.) To validate our procedure we introduced encapsulated liquid crystal particles into glycerol. The liquid crystal particles' color varies depending on the temperature of the fluid. A photograph of the fluid through transparent sidewalls therefore gives a picture of the temperature field of the convecting fluid, independent of our ultrasound imaging. A representative result is shown in the Figure 1, which reveals a very satisfying correspondence between the two techniques. Therefore we have a great deal of confidence that the ultrasound imaging approach is indeed measuring the actual temperature profile of the fluid. The technique has also been applied to convecting liquid metal flows, and representative data will be presented from those experiments as well.

Andereck, D.↗

Longitudinal Laminar Flow Between Cylinders Arranged in Regular Array

The increasing complexity of heat transfer and process situations which involve fluid flow has demanded the frequent use of flow passages of unusual geometrical configuration. The present investigation is concerned with one such novel configuration, namely the longitudinal flow between solid cylindrical rods which are arranged in regular array. A schematic diagram of the situation under study. The rods may be located either in triangular or square array. The flow will be taken to be laminar and fully developed. The aim of this analysis is to determine the pressure drop, shear stress, and velocity-distribution characteristics of the system. The starting point of this study is the basic law of momentum conservation. The resulting differential equation has been solved in an approximate, but almost exact, manner by the use of truncated trigonometric series. Results are obtained over a wide range of porosity values for both the triangular and square arrays. Heat transfer has not been considered. The configuration under investigation has potential application in compact heat exchangers for nuclear reactors and other situations. Further the results should also be of interest in the theory of flow through unconsolidated porous beds (ia, 9a). The only related analytical work known to the authors is that of Emersleben (S), who considered only the square array. His rather involved solution, based on complex zeta functions, appears to be valid only at high porosities. Experiments covering a porosity range of 0.093 to 0.984 have been made by Sullivan (4) using parallel-oriented fibers, most of the tests being for fibers in random array. These previous investigations will be compared with the present theory in a later section.

Sparrow, E. M.↗

Optimal cube-connected cube multiprocessors

Many CFD (computational fluid dynamics) and other scientific applications can be partitioned into subproblems. However, in general the partitioned subproblems are very large. They demand high performance computing power themselves, and the solutions of the subproblems have to be combined at each time step. The cube-connect cube (CCCube) architecture is studied. The CCCube architecture is an extended hypercube structure with each node represented as a cube. It requires fewer physical links between nodes than the hypercube, and provides the same communication support as the hypercube does on many applications. The reduced physical links can be used to enhance the bandwidth of the remaining links and, therefore, enhance the overall performance. The concept and the method to obtain optimal CCCubes, which are the CCCubes with a minimum number of links under a given total number of nodes, are proposed. The superiority of optimal CCCubes over standard hypercubes was also shown in terms of the link usage in the embedding of a binomial tree. A useful computation structure based on a semi-binomial tree for divide-and-conquer type of parallel algorithms was identified. It was shown that this structure can be implemented in optimal CCCubes without performance degradation compared with regular hypercubes. The result presented should provide a useful approach to design of scientific parallel computers.

Sun, Xian-He↗

Results of the NY-Alesund ozone measurements intercomparison NAOMI

Worldwide, about ten Differential Absorption Lidars are used for long-term monitoring of stratospheric ozone. These systems are an important component of the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change. Although DIALs are self-calibrating in principle, regular intercomparisons with other ozone-lidars, microwave radiometers or ozone-sondes are highly desirable to ensure high data quality at a well known level. The Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC) validation policy suggests that such intercomparisons be "blind", meaning all participants submit their data to an impartial referee, without seeing results from the other participants. Here we report on the "blind" intercomparison taking place from January 20th to February 10th 1998 at Ny-Alesund, Spitsbergen (78.92 deg N, 11.95 deg E). Participating groups were from the Alfred Wegener Institute, Potsdam, operating the NDSC DIAL system at Ny-Alesund, from the University of Bremen operating the NDSC microwave radiometer for ozone profiling at Ny-Alesund, and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center group with the "NDSC travelling standard" STROZ-LITE. The first author acted as the impartial referee. Also used for the intercomparison were data from ECC-6A/Vaisala RS80 ozone sondes routinely launched at Ny-Alesund by the AWI group. A 1% KI solution (3 ml) and the 1986 ECC pump correction (1.092 at 5 hPa) are used. The ECC-data were available to all participants during the campaign and thus were not "blind". Table 1 summarizes the expected performance of the instruments participating in the ozone intercomparison reported in this paper.

Steinbrecht, W.↗

Variable-permittivity linear inverse problem for the H(sub z)-polarized case

The H(sub z)-polarized inverse problem has rarely been studied before due to the complicated way in which the unknown permittivity appears in the wave equation. This problem is equivalent to the acoustic inverse problem with variable density. We have recently reported the solution to the nonlinear variable-permittivity H(sub z)-polarized inverse problem using the Born iterative method. Here, the linear inverse problem is solved for permittivity (epsilon) and permeability (mu) using a different approach which is an extension of the basic ideas of diffraction tomography (DT). The key to solving this problem is to utilize frequency diversity to obtain the required independent measurements. The receivers are assumed to be in the far field of the object, and plane wave incidence is also assumed. It is assumed that the scatterer is weak, so that the Born approximation can be used to arrive at a relationship between the measured pressure field and two terms related to the spatial Fourier transform of the two unknowns, epsilon and mu. The term involving permeability corresponds to monopole scattering and that for permittivity to dipole scattering. Measurements at several frequencies are used and a least squares problem is solved to reconstruct epsilon and mu. It is observed that the low spatial frequencies in the spectra of epsilon and mu produce inaccuracies in the results. Hence, a regularization method is devised to remove this problem. Several results are shown. Low contrast objects for which the above analysis holds are used to show that good reconstructions are obtained for both permittivity and permeability after regularization is applied.

Moghaddam, M.↗

Resolution of Orbit Determination Prediction Instabilities at Titan During Cassini's Solstice Mission

The Cassini spacecraft has been in orbit about Saturn since 2004. Exploration of the Saturn system is driven by gravitational flybys of the moon Titan which alter the spacecraft trajectory. The Cassini Navigation Team receives regular updates to the Saturn satellites ephemeris from JPL's Solar System Dynamics group. The difference between subsequent ephemeris deliveries can be hundreds of meters in the position of Titan at the time of a flyby. Errors in Titan's position propagate downstream to the next flyby through the estimated spacecraft trajectory. Prior to 2013, the Cassini Orbit Determination Team estimated the Saturn satellite ephemeris parameters and used the a posteriori states and covariance of an operations arc as a priori inputs to subsequent estimation arcs. Since 2013, the OD Team has only been considering errors in the ephemeris and not estimating a correction to the satellite positions. The T119 Titan flyby exhibited a 3D miss distance of 2.44 km and the following T120 flyby yielded a smaller miss of 1.06 km at the 2.9s error level. These discrepancies between pre-flyby prediction and post-flyby trajectory reconstruction were due to errors in the Titan ephemeris. In order to improve the targeting of Titan in future flybys, the team restarted the satellite ephemeris estimation process for orbit determination solutions. Subsequent flybys had target misses of less than 1 km at the sub-3 error level. This paper describes the method of scaling the a priori satellite ephemeris covariance in the orbit determination process to allow larger corrections to the satellite system and improve the prediction of the spacecraft’s Titan-relative position at the time of encounters.

Boone, Dylan↗

International Research Results and Accomplishments From the International Space Station - A New Compilation

In 2016, the International Space Station (ISS) partnership published the first-ever compilation of international ISS research publications resulting from research performed on the ISS through 2011 (Expeditions 0 through 30). International Space Station Research Accomplishments: An Analysis of Results. From 2000-2011 is a collection of over 1,200 journal publications that describe ISS research in the areas of biology and biotechnology; Earth and space science; educational activities and outreach; human research; physical sciences; technology development and demonstration; and, results from ISS operations. This paper will summarize the ISS results publications obtained through 2011 on behalf of the ISS Program Science Forum that is made up of senior science representatives across the international partnership. NASA's ISS Program Science office maintains an online experiment database (www.nasa.gov/iss- science) that tracks and communicates ISS research activities across the entire ISS partnership, and it is continuously updated by cooperation and linking with the results tracking activities of each partner. It captures ISS experiment summaries and results and includes citations to the journals, conference proceedings, and patents as they become available. This content is obtained through extensive and regular journal and patent database searches, and input provided by the ISS international partners ISS scientists themselves. The International Space Station Research Accomplishments: An Analysis of Results From 2000-2011 is a testament to the research that was underway even as the ISS laboratory was being built. It rejects the scientific knowledge gained from ISS research, and how it impact the fields of science in both space and traditional science disciplines on Earth. Now, during a time when utilization is at its busiest, and with extension of the ISS through at least 2024, the ISS partners work together to track the accomplishments and the new knowledge gained in a way that will impact humanity like no laboratory on Earth. Examples of the highest pro le publications to date from each discipline will also be presented. As ISS research activities and operations continue, scientific data derived from earlier experiments will continuously be re-examined, refined, and assembled with new data and findings, including data from other fields never considered. New results will be produced, allowing breakthroughs in new areas of research and innovative solutions to problems on Earth. The ISS Program Science Forum will continue to capture and report on these results in the form of journal publications, conference proceedings, and patents. We anticipate that successful ISS research will continue to contribute to the science literature in a way that helps to formulate new hypotheses and conclusions that will enable science advancements across a wide range of scientific disciplines both in space and on Earth.

Ruttley, Tara↗

Exploring the Use of Alfven Waves in Magnetometer Calibration at Geosynchronous Orbit

An Alfven wave is a type magnetohydrodynamicwave that travels through a conducting fluid under the influence of a magnetic field. Researchers have successfully calculated offset vectors of magnetometers in interplanetary space by optimizing the offset to maximize certain Alfvenic properties of observed waves (Leinweber, Belcher). If suitable Alfven waves can be found in the magnetosphere at geosynchronous altitude then these techniques could be used to augment the overall calibration plan for magnetometers in this region such as on the GOES spacecraft, possibly increasing the time between regular maneuvers. Calibration maneuvers may be undesirable because they disrupt the activities of other instruments. Various algorithms to calculate an offset using Alfven waves were considered. A new variation of the Davis-Smith method was derived because it can be mathematically shown that the Davis-Smith method tolerates filtered data, which expands potential applications. The variant developed was designed to find only the offset in the plane normal to the main field because the overall direction of Earth's magnetic field rarely changes, and theory suggests the Alfvenic disturbances occur transverse to the main field. Other variations of the Davis-Smith method encounter problems with data containing waves that propagate in mostly the same direction. A searching algorithm was then designed to look for periods of time with potential Alfven waves in GOES 15 data based on parameters requiring that disturbances be normal to the main field and not change field magnitude. Final waves for calculation were hand-selected. These waves produced credible two-dimensional offset vectors when input to the Davis-Smith method. Multiple two-dimensional solutions in different planes can be combined to get a measurement of the complete offset. The resulting three dimensional offset did not show sufficient precision over several years to be used as a primary calibration method, but reflected changes in the offset fairly well, suggesting that the method could be helpful in monitoring trends of the offset vector when maneuvers cannot be used.

calibration↗

Geoid-to-topography ratios on Venus: A global perspective

Recently available spherical harmonic solutions for the geoid and topography of Venus are sufficiently high resolution that they can be used to address questions concerning the relationship between geoid and topography on a regional scale. We have approached this question by mapping the geoid-to-topography ratio (GTR) on a systematic global basis. For a given point on the surface, we consider the geoid and elevation values at all points on a gridded representation of those fields located within a specified distance of the reference point. From the set of paired values, we determine the correlation coefficient and the best-fitting straight line. The latter is the GTR at that position, and the former is a measure of the significance of the derived ratio. This procedure is then repeated for all points on the global grid, yielding maps of the GTR and the correlation coefficient. Unlike previous studies of the GRT on Venus, this apprach permits us to make an objective and systematic search for regions with anomalous GTR's as well as areas that do not demonstrate any strong correlation between geoid and topography. These maps can be updated regularly as new harmonic models of the Venus geoid are produced from new Magellan tracking data. This procedure permits the development of a global perspective on the relationship between GTR and venusian surface tectonics.

Simons, Mark↗

Liquid Nitrogen Removal of Critical Aerospace Materials

Identification of innovative solutions to unique materials problems is an every-day quest for members of the aerospace community. Finding a technique that will minimize costs, maximize throughput, and generate quality results is always the target. United Space Alliance Materials Engineers recently conducted such a search in their drive to return the Space Shuttle fleet to operational status. The removal of high performance thermal coatings from solid rocket motors represents a formidable task during post flight disassembly on reusable expended hardware. The removal of these coatings from unfired motors increases the complexity and safety requirements while reducing the available facilities and approved processes. A temporary solution to this problem was identified, tested and approved during the Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) return to flight activities. Utilization of ultra high-pressure liquid nitrogen (LN2) to strip the protective coating from assembled space shuttle hardware marked the first such use of the technology in the aerospace industry. This process provides a configurable stream of liquid nitrogen (LN2) at pressures of up to 55,000 psig. The performance of a one-time certification for the removal of thermal ablatives from SRB hardware involved extensive testing to ensure adequate material removal without causing undesirable damage to the residual materials or aluminum substrates. Testing to establish appropriate process parameters such as flow, temperature and pressures of the liquid nitrogen stream provided an initial benchmark for process testing. Equipped with these initial parameters engineers were then able to establish more detailed test criteria that set the process limits. Quantifying the potential for aluminum hardware damage represented the greatest hurdle for satisfying engineers as to the safety of this process. Extensive testing for aluminum erosion, surface profiling, and substrate weight loss was performed. This successful project clearly demonstrated that the liquid nitrogen jet possesses unique strengths that align remarkably well with the unusual challenges that space hardware and missile manufacturers face on a regular basis. Performance of this task within the confines of a critical manufacturing facility marks a milestone in advanced processing.

Noah, Donald E.↗

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗

Southwest Water Resources: Monitoring Surface Water Extents of Remote Stock Ponds in the Southwestern United States Using Earth Observing Systems for Enhanced Water Resources Management

Due to increasingly frequent and severe drought conditions in the southwestern US, land managers and livestock producers need to monitor stock ponds with increasing regularity. The ability to assess stock pond water levels with Earth observing satellite systems would enhance monitoring efforts of partners at the US Forest Service, Arizona Department of Game and Fish, and the Diablo Trust. This study employed Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) to monitor surface water extent for hundreds of critical stock ponds in Arizona. Using methods adapted from previously developed image processing workflows, this project conducted a time-series analysis to capture seasonal and interannual variations in surface water area between 2013 to 2021. In addition, end users can monitor the surface water extent of stock ponds through the developed Google Earth Engine software tool called Surface Water Identification and Forecasting Tool (SWIFT). SWIFT incorporates the Automated Water Extraction Index, Modified Normalized Difference Water Index, and Tasseled Cap-Wetness Index for optical imagery and the incidence angle, VV and VH polarization bands for Sentinel-1 imagery to detect small water bodies in the study area with an overall accuracy range of 88-93%. These tools will empower our partners to monitor the extents of water in their stock ponds remotely, enabling them to develop data-informed and sustainable management solutions for decades to come.

Rainey Aberle↗

The Extensional Rheology of Non-Newtonian Materials

The evolution of the transient extensional stresses in dilute and semi-dilute viscoelastic polymer solutions are measured with a filament stretching rheometer of a design similar to that first introduced by Sridhar, et al. The solutions are polystyrene-based (PS) Boger fluids that are stretched at constant strain rates ranging from 0.6 less than or equal to epsilon(0) less than or equal to 4s(exp -1) and to Hencky strains of epsilon greater than 4. The test fluids all strain harden and Trouton ratios exceeding 1000 are obtained at high strains. The experimental data strain hardens at lower strain levels than predicted by bead-spring FENE models. In addition to measuring the transient tensile stress growth, we also monitor the decay of the tensile viscoelastic stress difference in the fluid column following cessation of uniaxial elongation as a function of the total imposed Hencky strain and the strain rate. The extensional stresses initially decay very rapidly upon cessation of uniaxial elongation followed by a slower viscoelastic relaxation, and deviate significantly from FENE relaxation predictions. The relaxation at long times t is greater than or equal to 5 s, is compromised by gravitational draining leading to non-uniform filament profiles. For the most elastic fluids, partial decohension of the fluid filament from the endplates of the rheometer is observed in tests conducted at high strain rates. This elastic instability is initiated near the rigid endplate fixtures of the device and it results in the progressive breakup of the fluid column into individual threads or 'fibrils' with a regular azimuthal spacing. These fibrils elongate and bifurcate as the fluid sample is elongated further. Flow visualization experiments using a modified stretching device show that the instability develops as a consequence of an axisymmetry-breaking meniscus instability in the nonhomogeneous region of highly deformed fluid near the rigid endplate.

Spiegelberg, Stephen H.↗