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At least 343 records · Page 19

Monitoring and Modeling Astronaut Occupational Radiation Exposures in Space: Recent Advances

In 1982 astronauts were declared to be radiation workers by OSHA, and as such were subject to the rules and regulations applied to that group. NASA was already aware that space radiation was a hazard to crewmembers and had been studying and monitoring astronaut doses since 1962 at the Johnson Space Center. It was quickly realized NASA would not be able to accomplish all of its goals if the astronauts were subject to the ground based radiation worker limits, and thus received a waiver from OSHA to establish independent limits. As part of the stipulation attached to setting new limits, OSHA included a requirement to perform preflight dose projections for each crew and inform them of the associated risks. Additional requirements included measuring doses from various sources during the flight, making every effort to prevent a crewmember from exceeding the new limits, and keeping all exposures As Low As Reasonably Achievable (a.k.a. ALARA - a common health physics principle). The assembly of the International Space Station (ISS) and its initial manned operations will coincide with the 4-5 year period of high space weather activity at the next maximum in the solar cycle. For the first time in NASA's manned program, US astronauts will be in orbit continuously throughout a solar maximum period. During this period, crews are at risk of significantly increased radiation exposures due to solar particle events and trapped electron belt enhancements following geomagnetic storms. The problem of protecting crews is compounded by the difficulty of providing continuous real-time monitoring over a period of a decade in an era of tightly constrained budgets. In order to prepare for ISS radiological support needs, the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group and the NOAA Space Environment Center have undertaken a multiyear effort to improve and automate ground-based space weather monitoring systems and real-time radiation analysis tools. These improvements include a coupled, automated space weather monitoring and alarm system--SPE exposure analysis system, an advanced space weather data distribution and display system, and a high-fidelity space weather simulation system. In addition, significant new real-time space weather data sets, which will enhance the forecasting and now-casting of near-Earth space environment conditions, are being made available through unique NASA-NOAA-USAF collaborations. These new data sets include coronal mass ejection monitoring by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and in-situ plasma and particle monitoring at the L1 libration point by the Solar Wind Monitor (SWIM) and Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. Advanced real-time radiation monitoring data from charged particle telescopes and tissue equivalent proportional counters will also be available to assist crew and flight controllers in monitoring the external and intravehicular radiation environment.

Weyland, Mark↗

Electron Flux Models for Different Energies at Geostationary Orbit

Forecast models were derived for energetic electrons at all energy ranges sampled by the third-generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). These models were based on Multi-Input Single-Output Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with Exogenous inputs methodologies. The model inputs include the solar wind velocity, density and pressure, the fraction of time that the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was southward, the IMF contribution of a solar wind-magnetosphere coupling function proposed by Boynton et al. (2011b), and the Dst index. As such, this study has deduced five new 1 h resolution models for the low-energy electrons measured by GOES (30-50 keV, 50-100 keV, 100-200 keV, 200-350 keV, and 350-600 keV) and extended the existing >800 keV and >2 MeV Geostationary Earth Orbit electron fluxes models to forecast at a 1 h resolution. All of these models were shown to provide accurate forecasts, with prediction efficiencies ranging between 66.9% and 82.3%.

Boynton, R. J.↗

Machine Learning Algorithms for Aerosol and Cloud Detection Using CATS on the ISS

Clouds and aerosols are one of the largest uncertainties in understanding and forecasting the Earth’s changing climate system. The type and height of aerosols are important factors in determining the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation budget, either direct reflection of solar radiation back to space and/or absorption of solar radiation. In addition to their impact on the Earth’s climate system, aerosols near the surface from wildfires, man-made pollution events, and dust storms are hazardous to human health. The phase and height of clouds also play a critical role in determining the role of clouds in the Earth’s climate system. Cirrus clouds in the upper troposphere can induce a significant daytime TOA warming effect, while liquid water clouds near the surface cause a large corresponding cooling effect. Lidar measurements provide accurate vertically resolved information about clouds and aerosols, including complex multi-layer scenes where passive sensors are challenged and at night, when passive sensors are unable to measure cloud and aerosol properties. The Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) is a lidar instrument that operated for 33 months on the International Space Station (ISS) at the 1064 nm wavelength to measure attenuated total backscatter and depolarization ratio. These fundamental measurements are used to derive “vertical feature mask” cloud and aerosol products, including layer top/base heights, layer geometrical thickness, aerosol type, and cloud phase. While space-based lidar systems like CATS provide cloud and aerosol vertical distributions that improve our understanding of the climate system, averaging of the daytime data from these sensors is required, at the expense of spatial resolution, to improve the daytime signal-to noise (SNR) and thus atmospheric layer detection. This presentation shows results from machine learning (ML) techniques that, when applied to CATS data: 1. improve the 1064 nm SNR 2. enable detection of atmospheric features during daytime with a horizontal resolution of 350 m or 5 km (compared to the 60 km required for standard CATS data products) 3. increase the number of atmospheric layers detected in the CATS data. A Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) trained using CATS standard data products also demonstrated the potential for improved cloud-aerosol discrimination, cloud phase, and aerosol typing compared to the operational CATS algorithms for cloud edges and complex near-surface scenes during daytime. The ML tools described in this paper can facilitate the development of smaller, low-cost lidar systems in the future and enable real-time accessibility of lidar data products from future lidar systems for monitoring and forecasting of hazardous events.

John Yorks↗

Impact of Flow-Dependent Error Correlations and Tropospheric Chemistry on Assimilated Ozone

The presentation compares different versions of a global three-dimensional ozone data assimilation system developed at NASA's Data Assimilation Office. The Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet/2 (SBUV/2) total and partial ozone column retrievals are the sole data assimilated in all of the experiments presented. We study the impact of changing the forecast error covariance model from a version assuming static correlations with a one that captures a short-term Lagrangian evolution of those correlations. This is further combined with a study of the impact of neglecting the tropospheric ozone production, loss and dry deposition rates, which are obtained from the Harvard GEOS-CHEM model. We compare statistical characteristics of the assimilated data and the results of validation against independent observations, obtained from WMO balloon-borne sondes and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III instrument. Experiments show that allowing forecast error correlations to evolve with the flow results in positive impact on assimilated ozone within the regions where data were not assimilated, particularly at high latitudes in both hemispheres. On the other hand, the main sensitivity to tropospheric chemistry is in the Tropics and sub-Tropics. The best agreement between the assimilated ozone and the in-situ sonde data is in the experiment using both flow-dependent error covariances and tropospheric chemistry.

Wargan, K.↗

Statistical Prediction of Solar Particle Event Frequency Based on the Measurements of Recent Solar Cycles for Acute Radiation Risk Analysis

Large solar particle events (SPEs) present significant acute radiation risks to the crew members during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded space vehicles for space missions beyond the protection of the Earth's magnetic field. Acute radiation sickness (ARS) can impair performance and result in failure of the mission. Improved forecasting capability and/or early-warning systems and proper shielding solutions are required to stay within NASA's short-term dose limits. Exactly how to make use of observations of SPEs for predicting occurrence and size is a great challenge, because SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature even though the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by the time position within the solar activity cycle. Therefore, we developed a probabilistic model approach, where a cumulative expected occurrence curve of SPEs for a typical solar cycle was formed from a non-homogeneous Poisson process model fitted to a database of proton fluence measurements of SPEs that occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19 - 23) and those of large SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice. From the fitted model, the expected frequency of SPEs was estimated at any given proton fluence threshold (Phi(sub E)) with energy (E) >30 MeV during a defined space mission period. Corresponding Phi(sub E) (E=30, 60, and 100 MeV) fluence distributions were simulated with a random draw from a gamma distribution, and applied for SPE ARS risk analysis for a specific mission period. It has been found that the accurate prediction of deep-seated organ doses was more precisely predicted at high energies, Phi(sub 100), than at lower energies such as Phi(sub 30) or Phi(sub 60), because of the high penetration depth of high energy protons. Estimates of ARS are then described for 90th and 95th percentile events for several mission lengths and for several likely organ dose-rates. The ability to accurately measure high energy protons (50-300 MeV) in real-time is shown to be a crucial issue for crew protection.

Myung-Hee, Y. Kim↗

Space Weather Modeling at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the rapid prototyping centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires dose collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, as well as distributed computing facilities provided by the US Air Force. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide updates on CCMC status, on current plans, research and development accomplishments and goals, and on the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate. Special emphasis will be on solar and heliospheric models currently residing at CCMC, and on plans for validation and verification.

Hesse M.↗

Space Weather Modeling Services at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the Rapid Prototyping Centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires close collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide a description of the current CCMC status, discuss current plans, research and development accomplishments and goals, and describe the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate. Special emphasis will be on solar and heliospheric models currently residing at CCMC, and on plans for validation and verification.

Hesse, Michael↗

Monitoring solar radiation: The ERDA program

An overview of the Energy Research and Development Administration planned insolation data network is described. The design of the network is predicated on an analysis and definition of user requirements. Research and analysis projects covering data collection, forecasting and extrapolation are presented.

Koomanoff, F. A.↗

Real-Time Assimilation of Goes-Derived Products into A Mesoscale Model and It's Impact on Short-Term (06-36hr) Forecasts from 17 October 1998 through the Present

As the parameterizations of surface energy budgets in regional models have become more complete physically, models have the potential to be much more realistic in simulations of coupling between surface radiation, hydrology, and surface energy transfer. Realizing the importance of properly specifying the surface energy budget, many institutions are using land-surface models to represent the lower boundary forcing associated with biophysical processes and soil hydrology. However, the added degrees of freedom due to inclusion of such land-surface schemes require the specification of additional parameters within the model system such as vegetative resistances, green vegetation fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, stream flow, runoff, and the vertical distribution of soil moisture. Spatial heterogeneity of these parameters makes correct specification problematic since measurements are not routinely available. A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-IR skin temperature tendencies, solar insolation, and surface albedo into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. The technique has been successfully employed in a number of mesoscale models in case-study mode. We have taken the next step and developed a study to determine if assimilating these types of data into mesoscale models in real-time can improve short-term (648h) forecasts of temperature, relative humidity, and QPF on a daily basis over relatively large regions. Therefore, an operational modeling/assimilation system has been developed at the GHCC during the past summer that allows us to produce simulations out to 48 hours in a timely manor. The PSU/NCAR MM5 is used in a nested configuration with a 25 km grid covering the southeastern third of the US. The model has been on-line since 1 July 1998 and forecast products are posted on our web site. The satellite algorithms that generate data to be assimilated came on-line 17 October 1998. Quantitative assessment of the forecast quality is performed via traditional verification statistics. In addition, invaluable qualitative information is obtained through close collaboration with several NWSFO's who are using the MM5 products in real-time on a daily basis. The assimilation technique has been applied in an off-line mode since 17 October. Results based on bulk statistical verification of surface meteorology over the entire Southeastern US show that assimilating the GOES-derived land surface tendencies and solar radiation results in a significant reduction of the shelter air temperature and RH bias on a daily basis. In fact, the assimilation technique has produced improved temperature and RH forecasts for 97% of the 100 simulations performed to date. Work is currently underway to determine the sensitivity of the assimilation procedure to the availability of satellite data, length of assimilation period, model initialization, and synoptic-scale meteorological conditions. In addition, results from a detailed energy budget analysis using the Early Eta, our operational MM5, and the assimilation runs will help us to better understand the satellite assimilation the land-surface energy budge. Research during the spring-summer of 1999 will focus on the impact of the assimilation technique during the warm season where it is hypothesized that it can have a positive impact on QPF during conditions of weak synoptic-scale forcing.

Lapenta, William M.↗

Science Prospects from the STEREO Mission

The solar magnetic field is constantly generated beneath the surface of the Sun by the solar dynamo. To balance this flux generation, there is constant dissipation of magnetic flux at and above the solar surface. The largest phenomenon associated with this dissipation is the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) has provided remarkable views of the corona and CMEs, and served to highlight how these large interplanetary disturbances can have terrestrial consequences. STEREO is the next logical step to study the physics of CME origin, propagation, and terrestrial effects. Two spacecraft with identical instrument complements will be launched on a single launch vehicle in November 2007. One spacecraft will drift ahead and the second behind the Earth at a separation rate of 22 degrees per year. Observation from these two vantage points will for the first time allow the observation of the three-dimensional structure of CMEs and the coronal structures where they originate. Each STEREO spacecraft carries a complement of 10 instruments, which include (for the first time) an extensive set of BOTH remote sensing and in-situ instruments. The remote sensing suite is capable of imaging CMEs from the solar surface out to beyond Earth's orbit (1 AU), and in-situ instruments are able to measure distribution functions for electrons, protons, and ions over a broad energy range, from the normal thermal solar in wind plasma to the most energetic solar particles. It is anticipated that these studies will ultimately lead to an increased understanding, of the CME process and eventually to the ability to predict CME occurrence and thereby 'forecast' the condition of the near-Earth environment.

Davila, Joseph M.↗

Lunar orbiting microwave beam power system

A microwave-beam power system using lunar orbiting solar-powered satellite(s) and surface rectenna(s) is investigated as a possible energy source for the moon's surface. The concept has the potential of achieving reduced system mass by placing the power source in orbit. This can greatly reduce and/or eliminate the 14-d energy storage requirement of a lunar surface solar system. Also, propellants required to de-orbit to the surface are greatly reduced. To determine the practicality of the concept and the most important factors, a zeroth-order feasibility analysis is performed. Three different operation scenarios employing state of the art technology and forecasts for two different sets of advanced technologies are investigated. To reduce the complexity of the problem, satellite(s) are assumed to be in circular equatorial orbits around the moon, supplying continuous power to a single equatorial base through a fixed horizontal rectenna on the surface. State of the art technology yields specific masses greater than 2500 kg/kw, well above projections for surface systems. The specific masses are on the order of 100 kg/kW using advanced technologies, which is within the range of projections for surface nuclear (20 kg/kW) and solar systems (500 kg/kW). Further studies examining optimization of the scenarios, other technologies, such as laser transmitters and nuclear sources, and operational issues, such as logistics, maintenance, and support, are being carried out to support the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) to the moon and Mars.

Fay, Edgar H.↗

Lunar orbiting microwave beam power system

A microwave beam power system using lunar orbiting solar powered satellite(s) and surface rectenna(s) was investigated as a possible energy source for the Moon's surface. The concept has the potential of reduced system mass by placing the power source in orbit. This can greatly reduce and/or eliminate the 14 day energy storage requirement of a lunar surface solar system. Also propellants required to de-orbit to the surface are greatly reduced. To determine the practicality of the concept and the most important factors, a zero-th order feasibility analysis was performed. Three different operational scenarios employing state of the art technology and forecasts for two different sets of advanced technologies were investigated. To reduce the complexity of the problem, satellite(s) were assumed in circular equatorial orbits around the Moon, supplying continuous power to a single equatorial base through a fixed horizontal rectenna on the surface. State of the art technology yielded specific masses greater than 2500 kg/kw, well above projections for surface systems. Using advanced technologies the specific masses are on the order of 100 kg/kw which is within the range of projections for surface nuclear (20 kg/kw) and solar systems (500 kg/kw). Further studies examining optimization of the scenarios, other technologies such as lasers transmitters and nuclear sources, and operational issues such as logistics, maintenance and support are being carried out to support the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) to the Moon and Mars.

Fay, Edgar H.↗

Using LANDSAT to provide potato production estimates to Columbia Basin farmers and processors

The estimation of potato yields in the Columbia basin is described. The fundamental objective is to provide CROPIX with working models of potato production. A two-pronged approach was used to yield estimation: (1) using simulation models, and (2) using purely empirical models. The simulation modeling approach used satellite observations to determine certain key dates in the development of the crop for each field identified as potatoes. In particular, these include planting dates, emergence dates, and harvest dates. These critical dates are fed into simulation models of crop growth and development to derive yield forecasts. Purely empirical models were developed to relate yield to some spectrally derived measure of crop development. Two empirical approaches are presented: one relates tuber yield to estimates of cumulative intercepted solar radiation, the other relates tuber yield to the integral under GVI (Global Vegetation Index) curve.

Source record↗

Solar Wind and Interplanetary Disturbances

This report describes basic knowledge of solar wind and interplanetary disturbances first, and then it discussed recent results from new observations and theories. At the end it presented research activities to predict interplanetary disturbances for space weather forecast.

Watari, Shinichi↗

Next Generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R Series): A Space Segment Overview

The next-generation National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R series) is currently being developed by NOAA in cooperation with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The GOES-R series satellites represents a significant improvement in spatial, temporal, and spectral observations (several orders of magnitude) over the capabilities of the currently operational GOES-1 series and the about to be launched GOES-N series satellite. The GOES-R series will incorporate technically advanced third-generation instruments and spacecraft enhancements to meet evolving observational requirements of forecasting for the era 2012-2025. The GOES-R instrument complement being developed includes a Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), a Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (HES), a GEO Lighting Mapper (GLM), a Solar Imaging Suite (SIS) and a Space Environment In-Situ Suite (SEISS). Also, candidates for a number of GOES-R Pre-Planned Product Improvements (P(sup 3)Is) includes a Geo microwave Sounder, a Coronograph, a Hyperspectral Imager, and a Solar Irradiance Sensor. Currently, the GOES-R Space Segment architecture is being evaluated as part of a GOES-R system end-to-end architecture study. The GOES-R notional baseline architecture is a constellation of two satellites (A-sat and B-sat) each nominally located at 75 degrees west longitude and at 135 degrees west longitude at geostationary altitude, 0 degrees inclination. The primary mission of the A-sat is to provide imaging from the ABI. The A-sat will also contain the SIS and the GLM. The primary mission of the B-sat is to provide sounding of the hemispherical disk of the earth from the HES. The B-sat also contains the SEISS. Both satellites have mesoscale capabilities for severe weather sounding or imaging. This paper overviews the GOES-R Space Segment development including satellite constellation trade-off, improvements and differences between the current and future instrument and spacecraft capabilities, and technology infusion.

Krimchansky, Alexander↗

Applying AI tools to operational space environmental analysis

The U.S. Air Force and National Oceanic Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) space environmental operations centers are facing increasingly complex challenges meeting the needs of their growing user community. These centers provide current space environmental information and short term forecasts of geomagnetic activity. Recent advances in modeling and data access have provided sophisticated tools for making accurate and timely forecasts, but have introduced new problems associated with handling and analyzing large quantities of complex data. AI (Artificial Intelligence) techniques have been considered as potential solutions to some of these problems. Fielding AI systems has proven more difficult than expected, in part because of operational constraints. Using systems which have been demonstrated successfully in the operational environment will provide a basis for a useful data fusion and analysis capability. Our approach uses a general purpose AI system already in operational use within the military intelligence community, called the Temporal Analysis System (TAS). TAS is an operational suite of tools supporting data processing, data visualization, historical analysis, situation assessment and predictive analysis. TAS includes expert system tools to analyze incoming events for indications of particular situations and predicts future activity. The expert system operates on a knowledge base of temporal patterns encoded using a knowledge representation called Temporal Transition Models (TTM's) and an event database maintained by the other TAS tools. The system also includes a robust knowledge acquisition and maintenance tool for creating TTM's using a graphical specification language. The ability to manipulate TTM's in a graphical format gives non-computer specialists an intuitive way of accessing and editing the knowledge base. To support space environmental analyses, we used TAS's ability to define domain specific event analysis abstractions. The prototype system defines events covering reports of natural phenomena such as solar flares, bursts, geomagnetic storms, and five others pertinent to space environmental analysis. With our preliminary event definitions we experimented with TAS's support for temporal pattern analysis using X-ray flare and geomagnetic storm forecasts as case studies. We are currently working on a framework for integrating advanced graphics and space environmental models into this analytical environment.

Krajnak, Mike↗

Economic evaluation of a solar hot-water-system

Analysis shows economic benefits at six representative sites using actual data from Tempe, Arizona and San Diego, California installations. Model is two-tank cascade water heater with flat-plate collector array for single-family residences. Performances are forecast for Albuquerque, New Mexico; Fort Worth, Texas; Madison, Wisconsin; and Washington, D.C. Costs are compared to net energy savings using variables for each site's environmental conditions, loads, fuel costs, and other economic factors; uncertainty analysis is included.

Source record↗

Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Technology Development Status and Forecast

Beginning in Fiscal Year (FY) 2011, Extravehicular activity (EVA) technology development became a technology foundational domain under a new program Enabling Technology Development and Demonstration. The goal of the EVA technology effort is to further develop technologies that will be used to demonstrate a robust EVA system that has application for a variety of future missions including microgravity and surface EVA. Overall the objectives will be reduce system mass, reduce consumables and maintenance, increase EVA hardware robustness and life, increase crew member efficiency and autonomy, and enable rapid vehicle egress and ingress. Over the past several years, NASA realized a tremendous increase in EVA system development as part of the Exploration Technology Development Program and the Constellation Program. The evident demand for efficient and reliable EVA technologies, particularly regenerable technologies was apparent under these former programs and will continue to be needed as future mission opportunities arise. The technological need for EVA in space has been realized over the last several decades by the Gemini, Apollo, Skylab, Space Shuttle, and the International Space Station (ISS) programs. EVAs were critical to the success of these programs. Now with the ISS extension to 2028 in conjunction with a current forecasted need of at least eight EVAs per year, the EVA technology life and limited availability of the EMUs will become a critical issue eventually. The current Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) has vastly served EVA demands by performing critical operations to assemble the ISS and provide repairs of satellites such as the Hubble Space Telescope. However, as the life of ISS and the vision for future mission opportunities are realized, a new EVA systems capability could be an option for the future mission applications building off of the technology development over the last several years. Besides ISS, potential mission applications include EVAs for missions to Near Earth Objects (NEO), Phobos, or future surface missions. Surface missions could include either exploration of the Moon or Mars. Providing an EVA capability for these types of missions enables in-space construction of complex vehicles or satellites, hands on exploration of new parts of our solar system, and engages the public through the inspiration of knowing that humans are exploring places that they have never been before. This paper offers insight into what is currently being developed and what the potential opportunities are in the forecast

Chullen, Cinda↗