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DOE OSTI2014

Analysis of DOE's Roof Savings Calculator with Comparison to other Simulation Engines

A web-based Roof Savings Calculator (RSC) has been deployed for the Department of Energy as an industry-consensus tool to help building owners, manufacturers, distributors, contractors and researchers easily run complex roof and attic simulations. This tool employs the latest web technologies and usability design to provide an easy input interface to an annual simulation of hour-by-hour, whole-building performance using the world-class simulation tools DOE-2.1E and AtticSim. Building defaults were assigned based on national averages and can provide estimated annual energy and cost savings after the user selects nothing more than building location. In addition to cool reflective roofs, the RSC tool can simulate multiple roof and attic configurations including different roof slopes, above sheathing ventilation, radiant barriers, low-emittance surfaces, HVAC duct location, duct leakage rates, multiple layers of building materials, ceiling and deck insulation levels, and other parameters. A base case and energy-efficient alternative can be compared side-by-side to generate an energy/cost savings estimate between two buildings. The RSC tool was benchmarked against field data for demonstration homes in Ft. Irwin, CA. However, RSC gives different energy savings estimates than previous cool roof simulation tools so more thorough software and empirical validation proved necessary. This report consolidates much of the preliminary analysis for comparison of RSC s projected energy savings to that from other simulation engines.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2016

Human Exploration Spacecraft Testbed for Integration and Advancement (HESTIA)

The proposed paper will cover ongoing effort named HESTIA (Human Exploration Spacecraft Testbed for Integration and Advancement), led at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Johnson Space Center (JSC) to promote a cross-subsystem approach to developing Mars-enabling technologies with the ultimate goal of integrated system optimization. HESTIA also aims to develop the infrastructure required to rapidly test these highly integrated systems at a low cost. The initial focus is on the common fluids architecture required to enable human exploration of mars, specifically between life support and in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) subsystems. An overview of the advancements in both integrated technologies, in infrastructure, in simulation, and in modeling capabilities will be presented, as well as the results and findings of integrated testing,. Due to the enormous mass gear-ratio required for human exploration beyond low-earth orbit, (for every 1 kg of payload landed on Mars, 226 kg will be required on Earth), minimization of surface hardware and commodities is paramount. Hardware requirements can be minimized by reduction of equipment performing similar functions though for different subsystems. If hardware could be developed which meets the requirements of both life support and ISRU it could result in the reduction of primary hardware and/or reduction in spares. Minimization of commodities to the surface of mars can be achieved through the creation of higher efficiency systems producing little to no undesired waste, such as a closed-loop life support subsystem. Where complete efficiency is impossible or impractical, makeup commodities could be manufactured via ISRU. Although, utilization of ISRU products (oxygen and water) for crew consumption holds great promise of reducing demands on life support hardware, there exist concerns as to the purity and transportation of commodities. To date, ISRU has been focused on production rates and purities for propulsion needs. The meshing of requirements between all potential users, producers, and cleaners of oxygen and water is crucial to guiding the development of technologies which will be used to perform these functions. Various new capabilities are being developed as part of HESTIA, which will enable the integrated testing of these technologies. This includes the upgrading of a 20' diameter habitat chamber to eventually support long duration (90+ day) human-in-the-loop testing of advanced life support systems. Additionally, a 20' diameter vacuum chamber is being modified to create Mars atmospheric pressures and compositions. This chamber, designated the Mars Environment Chamber (MEC), will eventually be upgraded to include a dusty environment and thermal shroud to simulate conditions on the surface of Mars. In view that individual technologies will be in geographically diverse locations across NASA facilities and elsewhere in the world, schedule and funding constraints will likely limit the frequency of physical integration. When this is the case, absent subsystems can be either digitally or physically simulated. Using the Integrated Power Avionics and Software (iPAS) environment, HESTIA is able to bring together data from various subsystems in simulated surroundings, insert faults, errors, time delays, etc., and feed data into computer models or physical systems capable of reproducing the output of the absent subsystems for the consumption of a local subsystems. Although imperfect, this capability provides opportunities to test subsystem integration and interactions at a fraction of the cost. When a subsystem technology is too immature for integrated testing, models can be produced using the General-Use Nodal Network Solver (GUNNS) capability to simulate the overall system performance. In doing so, even technologies not yet on the drawing board can be integrated and overall system performance estimated. Through the integrated development of technologies, as well as of the infrastructure to rapidly and at a low cost, model, simulate, and test subsystem technologies early in their development, HESTIA is pioneering a new way of developing the future of human space exploration.

Banker, Brian F.↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Benefit Analysis of Infusing Wireless into Aircraft and Fleet Operations - Report to Seedling Project Efficient Reconfigurable Cockpit Design and Fleet Operations Using Software Intensive, Network Enabled, Wireless Architecture (ECON)

We report on an examination of potential benefits of infusing wireless technologies into various areas of aircraft and airspace operations. The analysis is done in support of a NASA seedling project Efficient Reconfigurable Cockpit Design and Fleet Operations Using Software Intensive, Network Enabled Wireless Architecture (ECON). The study has two objectives. First, we investigate one of the main benefit hypotheses of the ECON proposal: that the replacement of wired technologies with wireless would lead to significant weight reductions on an aircraft, among other benefits. Second, we advance a list of wireless technology applications and discuss their system benefits. With regard to the primary hypothesis, we conclude that the promise of weight reduction is premature. Specificity of the system domain and aircraft, criticality of components, reliability of wireless technologies, the weight of replacement or augmentation equipment, and the cost of infusion must all be taken into account among other considerations, to produce a reliable estimate of weight savings or increase.

Alexandrov, Natalia↗

NASA NTRS1982

Preliminary design of flight hardware for two-phase fluid research

This study defined the preliminary designs of flight software for the Space Shuttle Orbiter for three two-phase fluid research experiments: (1) liquid reorientation - to study the motion of liquid in tanks subjected to small accelerations; (2) pool boiling - to study low-gravity boiling from horizontal cylinders; and (3) flow boiling - to study low-gravity forced flow boiling heat transfer and flow phenomena in a heated horizontal tube. The study consisted of eight major tasks: reassessment of the existing experiment designs, assessment of the Spacelab facility approach, assessment of the individual carry-on approach, selection of the preferred approach, preliminary design of flight hardware, safety analysis, preparation of a development plan, estimates of detailed design, fabrication and ground testing costs. The most cost effective design approach for the experiments is individual carry-ons in the Orbiter middeck. The experiments were designed to fit into one or two middeck lockers. Development schedules for the detailed design, fabrication and ground testing ranged from 15 1/2 to 18 months. Minimum costs (in 1981 dollars) ranged from $463K for the liquid reorientation experiment to $998K for the pool boiling experiment.

Hustvedt, D. C.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Statistical and Probabilistic Extensions to Ground Operations' Discrete Event Simulation Modeling

NASA's human exploration initiatives will invest in technologies, public/private partnerships, and infrastructure, paving the way for the expansion of human civilization into the solar system and beyond. As it is has been for the past half century, the Kennedy Space Center will be the embarkation point for humankind's journey into the cosmos. Functioning as a next generation space launch complex, Kennedy's launch pads, integration facilities, processing areas, launch and recovery ranges will bustle with the activities of the world's space transportation providers. In developing this complex, KSC teams work through the potential operational scenarios: conducting trade studies, planning and budgeting for expensive and limited resources, and simulating alternative operational schemes. Numerous tools, among them discrete event simulation (DES), were matured during the Constellation Program to conduct such analyses with the purpose of optimizing the launch complex for maximum efficiency, safety, and flexibility while minimizing life cycle costs. Discrete event simulation is a computer-based modeling technique for complex and dynamic systems where the state of the system changes at discrete points in time and whose inputs may include random variables. DES is used to assess timelines and throughput, and to support operability studies and contingency analyses. It is applicable to any space launch campaign and informs decision-makers of the effects of varying numbers of expensive resources and the impact of off nominal scenarios on measures of performance. In order to develop representative DES models, methods were adopted, exploited, or created to extend traditional uses of DES. The Delphi method was adopted and utilized for task duration estimation. DES software was exploited for probabilistic event variation. A roll-up process was used, which was developed to reuse models and model elements in other less - detailed models. The DES team continues to innovate and expand DES capabilities to address KSC's planning needs.

Trocine, Linda↗

DOE OSTI2016

Parallel DTFE Surface Density Field Reconstruction

We improve the interpolation accuracy and efficiency of the Delaunay tessellation field estimator (DTFE) for surface density field reconstruction by proposing an algorithm that takes advantage of the adaptive triangular mesh for line-of-sight integration. The costly computation of an intermediate 3D grid is completely avoided by our method and only optimally chosen interpolation points are computed, thus, the overall computational cost is significantly reduced. The algorithm is implemented as a parallel shared-memory kernel for large-scale grid rendered field reconstructions in our distributed-memory framework designed for N-body gravitational lensing simulations in large volumes. We also introduce a load balancing scheme to optimize the efficiency of processing a large number of field reconstructions. Our results show our kernel outperforms existing software packages for volume weighted density field reconstruction, achieving ~ 10x speedup, and our load balancing algorithm gains an additional ~ 3.6x speedup at scales with ~ 16k processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Building commissioning costs and savings across three decades and 1500 North American buildings

B.V. Building commissioning (Cx) is a process for assuring efficient building operations that can be applied to new construction and existing buildings, resulting in energy and non-energy benefits. Quantifying the benefits of commissioning is challenging, but a 2009 study of 643 commercial buildings provided a solid initial data set to which we added 839 additional buildings for a significantly expanded and updated meta-analysis representing 34.7 million square meters (373 million square feet) of floor area. Since 2009 the commissioning industry has continued to grow, driven by building codes, utility programs, and rising awareness of commissioning benefits. In parallel, building controls have become more sophisticated, and analytics software has emerged to assist with commissioning. We find that delivery mechanism and market segment are key determinants of outcomes, although significant and cost-effective savings are found across the spectrum. Median primary energy savings for Cx projects in existing buildings ranged from 5 percent for those conducted under utility programs, 9 percent for monitoring-based commissioning utility programs (i.e., augmented with submetering and diagnostics), and 14 percent for Cx projects outside of utility programs. Across all project types, median savings ranged from 3 percent for the lodging market segment to 16 percent for public order and safety facilities. Outcomes did not vary significantly by building size or by market segment. Energy savings are rarely estimated for new construction commissioning. We found that the median costs of Cx were lower for the 2018 sample than for the 2009 sample—$\$$2.85 per square meter ($\$$0.26 per square foot) for existing buildings (a 33 percent reduction) and $\$$8.78 per square meter ($\$$0.82 per square foot) for new construction (a reduction of almost 50 percent). The median simple payback time for existing buildings was 1.7 years, with a 25th–75th percentile range of 0.8–3.5 years. Overall, this article summarizes these and other key findings, and discusses how the 2018 data reflects shifts in commissioning practice and outcomes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Methodology to assess “no-touch” building audit software using simulated utility data

Building audits are conducted in many commercial buildings to identify opportunities to reduce energy costs and improve building operation. Because audits require significant effort by building engineers, they are usually only affordable for larger commercial buildings. “No-touch” building audit tools have thus been developed to identify potential savings based on a simplified analysis of building energy consumption patterns via high-level energy data such as monthly utility bills. This paper presents a comprehensive and standardized methodology to evaluate the accuracy of no-touch audit tools in detecting and diagnosing building energy problems and quantifying potential energy savings. The test suite is based on output data from a well-characterized set of building energy models, and the methodology is illustrated by applying it to a representative no-touch building audit tool. Results show that the tool estimates building energy end uses with reasonable accuracy but is less accurate in identifying probably causes of high energy.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2017

Analysis of Plant Pan-Genomes and Transcriptomes with GET_HOMOLOGUES-EST, a Clustering Solution for Sequences of the Same Species

The pan-genome of a species is defined as the union of all the genes and noncoding sequences found in all its individuals. However, constructing a pan-genome for plants with large genomes is daunting both in sequencing cost and the scale of the required computational analysis. A more affordable alternative is to focus on the genic repertoire by using transcriptomic data. Here, the software GET_HOMOLOGUES-EST was benchmarked with genomic and RNA-seq data of 19 Arabidopsis thaliana ecotypes and then applied to the analysis of transcripts from 16 Hordeum vulgare genotypes. The goal was to sample their pan-genomes and classify sequences as core, if detected in all accessions, or accessory, when absent in some of them. The resulting sequence clusters were used to simulate pan-genome growth, and to compile Average Nucleotide Identity matrices that summarize intra-species variation. Although transcripts were found to under-estimate pan-genome size by at least 10%, we concluded that clusters of expressed sequences can recapitulate phylogeny and reproduce two properties observed in A. thaliana gene models: accessory loci show lower expression and higher non-synonymous substitution rates than core genes. Finally, accessory sequences were observed to preferentially encode transposon components in both species, plus disease resistance genes in cultivated barleys, and a variety of protein domains from other families that appear frequently associated with presence/absence variation in the literature. These results demonstrate that pan-genome analyses are useful to explore germplasm diversity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

L'Ralph's Advanced Thermal Model Correlation Using Veritrek

Thermal model correlation uses data from thermal balance tests to better estimate uncertain input parameter values. During the correlation process, input parameters are modified in an iterative manner which can become computationally expensive since this requires that the high-fidelity thermal model be run for each iteration. Depending on the number of thermal balance test points there can be many sets of correlation parameters that satisfy correlation criteria; and having enough data to ascertain the best set of correlation parameters to use, further increases the computational expense. Reduced-order models (ROMs) provide computationally efficient surrogates of high-fidelity models and are often built to reduce development cycle times and cost. By leveraging the speed of reduced-order models and the Correlation Analysis feature in the Veritrek software, the typical computational expense of a traditional thermal model correlation process can be significantly reduced and having access to hundreds of thousands of iteration results provides an advanced means of intelligently determining the best set of correlation parameters to use. The L’Ralph thermal team at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center explored the use of the Veritrek software for their thermal model correlation efforts. The ROM that was created allowed for the variation of 15 input parameters to match 70 temperature sensor readouts from 3 thermal balance plateus and required 125 runs of the high-fidelity Thermal Desktop® model to generate a ROM that could predict the detailed model’s results to within 0.2 K (RMS). The ROM was then used to find dozens of plausible correlation parameter values based on L’Ralph instrument test data within a few seconds. By providing several plausible correlation parameter combinations, Veritrek allowed the thermal team to explore different uncertain parameter value combinations and provided insight into how deterministic each input parameter was. This allowed for a more confident decision on the best set of correlation parameters to use, compared to traditional model correlation techniques. In this presentation, the L’Ralph thermal team will be presenting their experience with the Veritrek software and how the software was utilized to provide additional insights during the correlation process.

Daniel Bae↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

L'Ralph's Advanced Thermal Model Correlation Using Veritrek

Daniel Bae↗

DOE OSTI2016

Scalable subsurface inverse modeling of huge data sets with an application to tracer concentration breakthrough data from magnetic resonance imaging

When characterizing subsurface properties is crucial for reliable and cost-effective groundwater supply management and contaminant remediation. With recent advances in sensor technology, large volumes of hydro-geophysical and geochemical data can be obtained to achieve high-resolution images of subsurface properties. However, characterization with such a large amount of information requires prohibitive computational costs associated with “big data” processing and numerous large-scale numerical simulations. To tackle such difficulties, the Principal Component Geostatistical Approach (PCGA) has been proposed as a “Jacobian-free” inversion method that requires much smaller forward simulation runs for each iteration than the number of unknown parameters and measurements needed in the traditional inversion methods. PCGA can be conveniently linked to any multi-physics simulation software with independent parallel executions. In our paper, we extend PCGA to handle a large number of measurements (e.g. 106 or more) by constructing a fast preconditioner whose computational cost scales linearly with the data size. For illustration, we characterize the heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity (K) distribution in a laboratory-scale 3-D sand box using about 6 million transient tracer concentration measurements obtained using magnetic resonance imaging. Since each individual observation has little information on the K distribution, the data was compressed by the zero-th temporal moment of breakthrough curves, which is equivalent to the mean travel time under the experimental setting. Moreover, only about 2,000 forward simulations in total were required to obtain the best estimate with corresponding estimation uncertainty, and the estimated K field captured key patterns of the original packing design, showing the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS2004

Reducing the Time and Cost of Testing Engines

Producing a new aircraft engine currently costs approximately $1 billion, with 3 years of development time for a commercial engine and 10 years for a military engine. The high development time and cost make it extremely difficult to transition advanced technologies for cleaner, quieter, and more efficient new engines. To reduce this time and cost, NASA created a vision for the future where designers would use high-fidelity computer simulations early in the design process in order to resolve critical design issues before building the expensive engine hardware. To accomplish this vision, NASA's Glenn Research Center initiated a collaborative effort with the aerospace industry and academia to develop its Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS), an advanced engineering environment for the analysis and design of aerospace propulsion systems and components. Partners estimate that using NPSS has the potential to dramatically reduce the time, effort, and expense necessary to design and test jet engines by generating sophisticated computer simulations of an aerospace object or system. These simulations will permit an engineer to test various design options without having to conduct costly and time-consuming real-life tests. By accelerating and streamlining the engine system design analysis and test phases, NPSS facilitates bringing the final product to market faster. NASA's NPSS Version (V)1.X effort was a task within the Agency s Computational Aerospace Sciences project of the High Performance Computing and Communication program, which had a mission to accelerate the availability of high-performance computing hardware and software to the U.S. aerospace community for its use in design processes. The technology brings value back to NASA by improving methods of analyzing and testing space transportation components.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2018

Implementation of ANL’s Mechanics Based Evolutionary Fatigue Modeling Through ABAQUS-WARP3D Based High-Performance Computing Framework

This report presents an update on the environmental fatigue research that is being conducted at Argonne National Laboratory in support of the Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. Argonne is developing a fully mechanistic fatigue evaluation approach without using empirical fatigue (S~N) curves. This approach is based on the fundamental concept of the time evolution of progressive fatigue damage rather than on the conventional S~N curve approaches using end-of-life data. In FY 2017, we performed extensive validation of this approach with respect to fatigue test data for 316 stainless steel [1]. This validation was performed for different loading cases, including constant, variable, and random amplitude. In the present FY 2018 semi-annual report, we present the further advances of Argonne’s environmental fatigue research work in the context for more practical applications. In this report, we discuss a methodology for fully mechanistic (i.e., not using S~N curves) fatigue life evaluation of reactor components subjected to realistic loading cycles, namely, design-basis loading cycles. The loading cycles include plant heat-up, full-power, and cool-down operations. As a test case, we considered a typical pressurized water reactor surge line, which is made of 316 SS. To perform the fatigue simulation for thousands of fatigue cycles in a computationally cost effective way, we modified our previous desktop-based finite element (FE) modeling approach to work in a high-performance computing (HPC) framework. For the HPC implementation, we developed a hybrid framework based on commercial FE software (ABAQUS), open-source FE software (WARP3D), and Argonne-developed evolutionary cyclic-plasticity modeling methods. We validated this HPC-based cycle-by-cycle damage model for the entire fatigue life of a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) surge line (SL) pipe with respect to assumed loading cycles. The simulated fatigue life was found to be 5855 cycles, which is 85% accurate as compared to the corresponding small-specimen-based experimental fatigue life (6914 cycles). Also, the simulated stress history captures the cyclic hardening and softening behavior of the material for entire fatigue cycles. The FE simulation of the PWR SL pipe was conducted in a reasonable time of 12.5 days. These results show the promise that a fully mechanistic (not using S~N curves) fatigue life evaluation of a safety-critical nuclear reactor component (or even other safety critical components like those in aircraft, aero-engines, etc.) is possible. We anticipate that this type of methodology will drastically reduce the uncertainly associated with conventional fatigue life estimates based on empirical S~N curves. We also proposed an FE model that is based on a hybrid full-component and single-element approach and that can readily be used by industry if HPC resources are not available. In this approach, a single-cycle FE simulation has to be performed first for the required loading cycle. Then, the resulting strain/stress profile at the hotspot (highest strain/stress location) is used as input strain/stress loading to the single-element FE model. The single-element FE model is run under multiple fatigue cycles as long as the failure criteria are achieved. The cycle number at failure gives the fatigue life of the component in question. This cost-effective framework does not require expensive HPC hardware and can be performed in a reasonable time by using a desktop computer. We demonstrated this approach with respect to PWR SL fatigue evaluation under two realistic design-basis loading cycles (simple and detailed). The associated results were validated with respect to test data obtained through fatigue testing of uniaxial specimens under the in-air condition at 300 °C. The approach is in the development stage and requires further improvement and validation.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrate Latimer Controls' Solution into RTAC (CRADA Final Report, CRD-23-24672)

Latimer Controls, Inc. was awarded two vouchers under the Department of Energy's American-Made Solar Prize Round 6 to conduct collaborative research at a national laboratory. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was selected as a partner to assist Latimer Controls in the performance evaluation of its photovoltaic (PV) control software. This collaboration focuses on developing a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed at NREL, which will be used to test and validate the Latimer PV control technology in a realistic yet de-risked environment. Both Latimer and NREL teams will work together to analyze the collected test data, derive insights, and disseminate the scientific findings. Recent studies underscore the potential of solar energy as a zero-marginal-cost and zero-emission flexibility resource within the bulk power system, particularly when integrated with advanced control systems. To enhance the performance of such systems, Latimer Controls has developed leading-edge technologies, including machine learning (ML) algorithms and hierarchical inverter set-point allocation methods. These innovations are designed to estimate the operational headroom of large PV plants for grid integration and control. However, comprehensive validation under real-world conditions remains necessary. To address this gap, the concurrent CRADA project proposes the real-world application and validation of the Latimer Control solution within a HIL environment. Initially, the Latimer algorithm was developed and tested within MATLAB Simulink, a platform suitable for research-level simulations and iterative development. However, transitioning this technology to a real solar site as an industry-ready solution necessitates implementation in a format compatible with widely used solar power plant controllers. In this additional CRADA work, the MATLAB Simulink-based logic will be translated into Structured Text, a programming language compliant with IEC 61131 standards, which is commonly used for custom logic implementations in industry-leading programmable logic controllers (PLCs), such as the Schweitzer SEL real-time automation controller (RTAC). This transition will facilitate the deployment of the Latimer Control solution in real-world solar power plants, thereby advancing the technology towards commercialization.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2019

Assessing Reliability of NDE Flaw Detection Using Smaller Number of Demonstration Data Points

The paper provides an engineering analysis approach for assessing reliability of NDE flaw detection using smaller number of demonstration data points. It explores dependence of probability of detection (POD), probability of false positive (POF), on contrast-to-noise ratio, and net decision threshold-to-noise ratio in a simulated data; and draws some generically applicable inferences to devise the approach. ASTM nondestructive evaluation standards provide requirements on signal-to-noise ratio and/or contrast-to-noise ratio in order to provide reliable flaw detection and limit false positive calls. POD analysis of inspection test data results in an estimated flaw size, denoted by 𝑎90/95. This flaw size has 90% POD and minimum 95% confidence. POF is also estimated in the analysis. POD demonstration requires specimens with flaws of known size. In many situations, it is very expensive to produce the large number of flaws required for the POD analysis. In some situations, only real flaws can truly represent the flaws for demonstration. Real flaws of correct size and location in part configuration specimen may be difficult to produce, if not impossible. Here, an engineering analysis approach is devised using simulation to assess reliability of NDE technique when a limited number of flaws are available for demonstration. In this simulation, a technique is considered reliable, if it provides flaw detectability size equal to or better than the theoretical 𝑎90𝑡ℎ used in simulation and also provides a POF less than or equal to a chosen value. The paper uses simulated signal response versus flaw size data to devise the approach. Linear correlation is used between the signal response data and flaw size. POD software mh1823 uses generalized linear model (GLM) in POD analysis after transforming the flaw size and signal response, if needed, using logarithm. Therefore, this approach is in agreement with the linear signal correlation used in mh1823. Using the POD analysis of data, generic conditions on contrast-to-noise ratio and net decision threshold-to-noise ratio are derived for reliable flaw detection. In order to assess technique reliability using the engineering approach, signal response-to-flaw size correlation about the flaw size of concern is needed. In addition, measurement of noise is also needed. If the technique meets the above requirements, assumption of linear signal-to-flaw size correlation and conditions on noise, then the technique can be assessed using this analysis as it fits the underlying POD model used here. The approach is conservative and is designed to provide a larger flaw size compared to the POD approach. Such NDE technique assessment approach, although, not as rigorous as POD, can be cost effective if the larger flaw size can be tolerated. Typically, this is a situation for all quality control NDE inspections. Here, an NDE technique needs to be reliable and 𝑎90/95 is not estimated, but the assessed flaw size is assumed to be larger than the unknown a90 due to conservative factors or margins. Applicability of the approach for assessing reliability of flaw detection in x-ray radiography and 2D imaging in general is also explored.

Koshti, Ajay M.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Practical factors of envelope model setup and their effects on the performance of model predictive control for building heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems

Model predictive control (MPC) for buildings is attracting significant attention in research and industry due to its potential to address a number of challenges facing the building industry, including energy cost reduction, grid integration, and occupant connectivity. However, the strategy has not yet been implemented at any scale, largely due to the significant effort required to configure and calibrate the model used in the MPC controller. While many studies have focused on methods to expedite model configuration and improve model accuracy, few have studied the impact a wide range of factors have on the accuracy of the resulting model. In addition, few have continued on to analyze these factors’ impact on MPC controller performance in terms of final operating costs. Therefore, this study first identifies the practical factors affecting model setup, specifically focusing on the thermal envelope. The seven that are identified are building design, model structure, model order, data set, data quality, identification algorithm and initial guesses, and software tool-chain. Then, through a large number of trials, it analyzes each factor's influence on model accuracy, focusing on grey-box models for a single zone building envelope. Finally, this study implements a subset of the models identified with these factor variations in heating, ventilating, and air conditioning MPC controllers, and tests them in simulation of a representative case that aims to optimally cool a single-zone building with time-varying electricity prices. It is found that a difference of up to 20%25 in cooling cost for the cases studied can occur between the best performing model and the worst performing model. The primary factors attributing to this were model structure and initial parameter guesses during parameter estimation of the model.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2016

Assessing the Macroeconomic Importance of Gasoline and Vehicle Spending

Vector error correction (VEC) was used to test the importance of a theoretical causal chain from transportation fuel cost to vehicle sales to macroeconomic activity. Real transportation fuel cost was broken into two cost components: real gasoline price (rpgas) and real personal consumption of gasoline and other goods (gas). Real personal consumption expenditure on vehicles (RMVE) represented vehicle sales. Real gross domestic product (rGDP) was used as the measure of macroeconomic activity. The VEC estimates used quarterly data from the third quarter of 1952 to the first quarter of 2014. Controlling for the financial causes of the recent Great Recession, real homeowners’ equity (equity) and real credit market instruments liability (real consumer debt, rcmdebt) were included. Results supported the primary hypothesis of the research, but also introduced evidence that another financial path through equity is important, and that use of the existing fleet of vehicles (not just sales of vehicles) is an important transport-related contributor to macroeconomic activity. Consumer debt reduction is estimated to be a powerful short-run force reducing vehicle sales. Findings are interpreted in the context of the recent Greene, Lee, and Hopson (2012) (hereafter GLH) estimation of the magnitude of three distinct macroeconomic damage effects that result from dependence on imported oil, the price of which is manipulated by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The three negative macroeconomic impacts are due to (1) dislocation (positive oil price shock), (2) high oil price levels, and (3) a high value of the quantity of oil imports times an oil price delta (cartel price less competitive price). The third of these is the wealth effect. The VEC model addresses the first two, but the software output from the model (impulse response plots) does not isolate them. Nearly all prior statistical tests in the literature have used vector autoregression (VAR) and autoregressive distributed lag models that considered effects of oil price changes, but did not account for effects of oil price levels. Gasoline prices were rarely examined. The tests conducted in this report evaluate gasoline instead of oil.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗