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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Utah FORGE 6-3712: Probabilistic Estimation of Seismic Response Using Physics-Informed Recurrent Neural Networks - 2024 Annual Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Probabilistic Estimation of Seismic Response Using Physics-Informed Recurrent Neural Networks by GTC Analytics, presented by Jesse Williams. This video slide presentation discusses the development of machine learning-based predictive tools to estimate the magnitude-frequency response of stimulation-induced seismicity. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on August 15, 2024.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Induced seismicity red-light thresholds for enhanced geothermal prospects in the Netherlands

Prospects for geothermal energy in the Netherlands have renewed concerns around induced earthquakes. Risks from induced earthquakes are managed by traffic light protocols (TLPs), where the red-light is chosen as the stop-point before exceeding a tolerance to risk. Here, we simulate post-shut-in earthquake scenarios based on realistic information for the Netherlands. We focus on three risk metrics: aggregates like nuisance and damage impacts and also local personal risk (LPR) – a likelihood of building collapse fatality for an individual. Our results show that the severity of these risks varies spatially by orders of magnitude. Prior induced seismicity (e.g., the 2012 Huizinge event) provides a reference baseline to calibrate the Dutch earthquake risk tolerances. We find that these calibrated risk tolerances are similar to those observed in North America, suggesting an underlying sociological ‘license to operate.’ Furthermore, the use of calibrated risk tolerances results in nuisance concerns completely eclipsing the other two metrics. We compare our results to a hypothetical Groningen geothermal operation and find that our approach sets red-light thresholds approximately one magnitude unit below the ML 3.6 Huizinge event. Overall, our results provide a first-order recommendation for red-light thresholds and proactive management of Dutch enhanced geothermal induced seismicity.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Utah FORGE 5-2428: Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior - Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Fracture Permeability Impact on Seismic Slip Behavior project by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, presented by Dr. Kayla A. Kroll. The project's objective is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on September 8, 2023. The workshop provided a valuable opportunity to explore the progress made in each of the 17 Research and Development projects funded under Solicitation 2020-1 which aim to enhance our understanding of the crucial factors influencing the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) reservoirs and resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating Explosion Yields Using Moment Tensor Solutions and Seismic Moment

We report seismic moment, a measurable and well-understood quantity of seismic sources, is used to estimate the yield of explosions. Application of such a method in the past, as in the manner of m b -derived yields, has been complicated by the effect of variations in the explosion working point, depth, and secondary source effects (such as spalling and tectonic release) on the observed moment. We start using the full (six-element) moment tensor solution, which can capture the relevant source physics and, at least in theory, better isolate the primary explosion source. The moment-to-yield ratio is then estimated using an explosion source model which, provided with emplacement conditions, can relate the two parameters. We discuss the major sources of uncertainty associated with the method, and calibrate it with chemical and nuclear explosions at the Nevada National Security Site. We then apply the method to published moment tensor solutions for the six declared North Korean nuclear explosions that occurred between 2006 and 2017. The results are mostly consistent with other yield estimates made using a variety of high-frequency methods. This technique is a new approach to estimating explosive yield and simple to implement, as much of the complexity is captured by the source models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing the seismic response of a molten salt nuclear reactor

Abstract One Generation IV nuclear reactor, which uses a fluoride salt as a coolant, graphite reflector blocks as a moderator, and circulating buoyant TRISO pebbles as fuel is at an advanced stage of development. To characterize the seismic behavior of components of this reactor, validate numerical models for analysis, and develop recommendations for design, a set of earthquake‐simulator experiments on a scaled model of the reactor vessel and its internals was executed on a six‐degree‐of‐freedom earthquake simulator. The model was seismically isolated at its base using two types of spherical sliding bearings. The scaled model involved representations of the prototype reactor vessel, core barrel, reflector blocks, coolant, and spherical fuel pebbles. The material and geometric properties of different test components were selected based on a dynamic similitude scaling analysis and an approximate length scale of 0.4. Four sets of three‐component earthquake motions were used as inputs for testing. Instrumentation on the test specimen recorded the dynamic responses of the outer vessel, core barrel, and reflector‐block assembly, the hydrodynamic responses (sloshing and hydrodynamic pressure) of the liquid coolant, pebble consolidation under earthquake shaking, and the behavior of the isolation systems. This paper describes the design of the experiments and presents key results from the tests. The dynamic responses of the outer vessel, core barrel, and the reflector blocks revealed that the components responded as a unit for the intense shaking used in the experiments. The sloshing response of the fluid in a thin annulus near the perimeter of the vessel was heavily damped. The change in the packing fraction of the pebble bed under repeated, intense 3D earthquake shaking was less than 3%. Seismically isolating the vessel substantially reduced demands on its internal components.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling and simulation of earthquake soil structure interaction excited by inclined seismic waves

Presented is an application of wave potential formulation (WPF) together with domain reduction method (DRM) to modeling earthquake soil structure interaction (ESSI) behavior in horizontally layered ground under inclined incident seismic waves. Wave potential formulation is used to develop a spatially varying, inclined seismic wave field from incident Primary (P) and Secondary (S) waves that propagate through layered ground. Developed seismic wave field is then used to develop effective forces for Domain Reduction Method that are then used for analyzing ESSI response of a soil structure system. Developed methodology, called WPF-DRM, is verified using analytic solution for a free field response of layered ground subjected to inclined incident waves. Developed WPF-DRM methodology is illustrated through analysis of an ESSI response of a deeply embedded structure, a small modular reactor (SMR) subjected to incident S wave polarized in vertical plane (SV) with variation in inclinations and frequencies. Presented example highlights the influences of incident wave inclination and frequency on ESSI response of analyzed SMR.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Three-dimensional paganica fault morphology obtained from hypocenter clustering (L'Aquila 2009 seismic sequence, Central Italy)

In seismic modelling, fault planes are normally assumed to be flat due to the lack of data which can constrain fault morphology. However, incorporating 3D fault morphology is important for modelling several phenomena, for example calculating mainshock induced stress changes. Here we utilize a data-analytical method to unveil the 3D rupture morphology of faults using unsupervised clustering techniques applied to earthquake hypocenters in seismic sequences. We apply this method to the 2009 L'Aquila seismic sequence which involved a M W 6.1 mainshock on April 6th. We use a dataset of about 50,000 relocated events, mostly microearthquakes, reaching magnitude of completeness equal to 0.7. Clustering distinguishes the earthquakes as occurring in three main clusters along with other minor fault segments. We then represent the morphology of the main Paganica fault system (responsible for the largest mainshock) using splines. This method shows promise as a step toward robustly and quickly obtaining 3D rupture morphologies where earthquake sequences have been monitored. The 3D model is presented interactively online, and the processing is presented in an interactive Jupyter Notebook (https://bit.ly/2MnCFdj).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Urban Seismic Site Characterization by Fiber-Optic Seismology

ccurate ground motion prediction requires detailed site effect assessment, but in urban areas where such assessments are most important, geotechnical surveys are difficult to perform, limiting their availability. Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) offers an appealing alternative by repurposing existing fiber-optic cables, normally employed for telecommunication, as an array of seismic sensors. We present a proof-of-concept demonstration by using DAS to produce high-resolution maps of the shallow subsurface with the Stanford DAS array, California. We describe new methods and their assumptions to assess H/V spectral ratio—a technique widely used to estimate the natural frequency of the soil—and to extract Rayleigh wave dispersion curves from ambient seismic field. These measurements are jointly inverted to provide models of shallow seismic velocities and sediment thicknesses above bedrock in central campus. The good agreement with an independent survey validates the methodology and demonstrates the power of DAS for microzonation.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Aquifer Monitoring Using Ambient Seismic Noise Recorded With Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) Deployed on Dark Fiber

Abstract Groundwater is a critical resource for human activities worldwide, and a vital component of many natural ecosystems. However, the state and dynamics of water‐bearing aquifers remain uncertain, mostly due to the paucity of subsurface data at high spatial and temporal resolution. Here, we show that analysis of infrastructure‐generated ambient seismic noise acquired on distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) arrays has potential as a tool to track variations in seismic velocities (d v / v ) caused by groundwater level fluctuations. We analyze 5 months of ambient noise acquired along an unused, 23 km‐long telecommunication fiber‐optic cable in the Sacramento Valley, CA, a so‐called “dark fiber." Three array subsections, ∼6 km apart, are processed and the stretching technique is applied to retrieve daily d v / v beneath each location. Near the Sacramento river, d v / v variations in the order of 2%–3% correlate with precipitation events and fluctuations in river stage of ∼1.5 m. In contrast, regions away (2.5 km) from the river do not experience large d v / v variations. These observations reveal short‐scale spatial variability in aquifer dynamics captured by this approach. Dispersion analysis and surface wave inversion of noise gathers reveal that seismic velocity perturbations occur at depths of 10–30 m. Rock physics modeling confirms that observed d v / v are linked to pore pressure changes at these depths, caused by groundwater table fluctuations. Our results suggest that DAS combined with ambient noise interferometry provides a means of tracking aquifer dynamics at high spatial and temporal resolutions at local to regional scales, relevant for effective groundwater resource management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mitigating Injection‐Induced Seismicity Along Basement Faults by Extraction: Application to 2016–2018 Pohang Earthquakes

Abstract The risk of induced earthquake is considered as the major obstacle for sustainable subsurface energy activities. As a mitigation approach, mechanistic risk assessment can be essential to minimize the potential of seismic hazard. Coupled hydro‐mechanical modeling approach is integrated with geomechanical analysis to better assess the occurrence of seismicity induced by injection and/or extraction, which will provide a basis to update operational conditions (e.g., number and location of mitigating wells, rate and duration of operations) for mitigating earthquake nucleation. The Coulomb stability analysis and seismicity rate estimates from this generic study indicate that simultaneous extraction can relieve injection‐induced pore‐pressure buildup, but also transfer and accumulate elastic energy along the faults. Field‐scale simulation with variation in well design for the Pohang EGS site, South Korea, show that multiple wells aligned across a preexisting fault form gradients of pressure and stress fields normal to the fault, which can enhance the direct impact of diffusion process and poroelastic stressing on the fault stability perturbation. Our mechanistic study suggests multiphysics‐oriented mitigation strategies that consider (1) possible mechanical deformation, caused by hydro‐mechanical coupling effects, and (2) proper configuration of well operations based on site‐specific geological characteristics.

Chang, K. W.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spectral Element Modeling of Acoustic to Seismic Coupling Over Topography

Acoustic waves in the atmosphere are commonly recorded on seismometers as they couple into the ground. These signals, here called ground coupled airwaves, are not commonly considered in numerical modeling of infrasound propagation, which often assumes a rigid unmeshed boundary. Starting from an analytically-tractable spherical wave model, we analyze how the coupling of an acoustic wave into a planar elastic halfspace changes over a wide range of scenarios. We use energy admittance to quantify acoustic to seismic coupling over both a planar elastic halfspace and meshed topography. Our spectral element and analytic calculations have different maxima as a function of incidence angle, with very high admittance values for near-vertical incidence (maximum ≈78%). Energy admittance calculations at shallow incidence angles are much smaller (less than 1%). In simulations over the complex topography of Sakurajima Volcano, we attribute the variable spatial pattern of energy admittance to changes in earth parameters between each model. The observed pressure difference over the simulated 15 km region appears to be < 2%. While this value is relatively small, the cumulative addition over 100s of km and multiple acoustic bounce points may be significant. Acoustic to seismic coupling along the propagation path may bias long distance yield estimates, particularly when infrasound propagates over regions with steep topography or particularly slow seismic velocities, such as alluvial planes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seasonal Seismicity in the Lake Biwa Region of Central Japan Moderately Modulated by Lake Water Storage Changes

Seasonal seismicity in Japan has been observed and attributed to variations induced by hydrological loading, as well as atmospheric and pore-fluid pressure. We examine the seasonal variations of crustal (<15 km depth) and low magnitude (M < 4.5) earthquakes in central Japan near the Biwako-Seigan Fault Zone (BSFZ), and analyze their correlation with the annual hydrological cycle of nearby Lake Biwa, the largest freshwater lake in Japan. The 2002–2018 lake water storage is estimated using water-level gauge and satellite altimetry data. Regional surface mass loading from soil moisture and snow predicted by the Global Land Data Assimilation System is used to augment the lake mass variation. We compute the stress and stressing-rate changes induced by the surface mass loading from lake storage, snow, and soil moisture at seismogenic depth (10 km) along the BSFZ using a finite element model incorporating a 3D Earth structure. The results show that seasonal surface mass loading generates 1–5 kPa peak-to-peak Coulomb stress change and 2.5–15 kPa/year stressing-rate variations on the fault segments along the BSFZ. Two of the four fault segments present significant correlation between local seismicity rate and loading-derived stress and/or stressing rate changes. Among the hydrological load components, lake water, snow, and soil moisture exhibit different annual phases, and the lake water storage dominates the total annual stress changes. Our analysis indicates that seasonal surface hydrological loads, especially lake water variations, modulate the seismicity rate along the BSFZ in central Japan.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Variable Continuous Bimaterial Interface in the San Jacinto Fault Zone Revealed by Dense Seismic Array Analysis of Fault Zone Head Waves

Key factors controlling earthquake ruptures include fault geometry, continuity, and seismic velocity structure around the fault. We present a novel tool that better informs deep bimaterial fault geometry embedded in distributed damage and seismicity, associated velocity contrasts across the fault, and their correlations with surface complexities. The method employs fault zone head and direct body waves and is applied to recordings from five spatiotemporally different seismic arrays along the complex San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ) in southern California. We detect and distinguish these signals based on instantaneous phase coherence and relative energy in a cascading manner from one scale array to another. The analysis reveals a >70-km long continuous bimaterial interface within the SJFZ with several deep northeast dipping fault segments. The northern SJFZ, for instance, locates ~7 km northeast of its surface expression at 18-km depth. P-wave velocity contrasts range from near 0% to >15%, consistent with other bimaterial faults, and differ by a few % depending on fault-array azimuth, implying directional-dependent velocity contrasts. S-wave head waves and velocity contrasts are also imaged for the first time at the southern SJFZ, averaging to 2.9% in agreement with tomography results. The imaged geometry and continuity suggest the SJFZ initiated along remnant tectonic structures and translates to a rupture potential of M > 7.2, i.e., the sizes of its largest paleo-earthquakes. The P and S contrasts, and their ratios, have important implications for earthquake rupture speed, mode, directivity, and frictional heating along the SJFZ and other major faults globally.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Examining Infrasound Propagation at High Spatial Resolution Using a Nodal Seismic Array

Infrasound—acoustic waves in the atmosphere below 20 Hz—is a useful monitoring tool. Topography and atmospheric structure strongly control infrasound propagation, and at common source–receiver distances neither of these effects can be ignored when quantitative source constraints are sought. Detailed spatial measurements of the infrasound wavefield would inform propagation models and improve source estimates. However, the “large-N” deployment strategy now well-known in seismology has not yet been realized for infrasound studies. Here, we use the 900-node seismic array from the 2014 Imaging Magma Under St. Helens (iMUSH) experiment as a proxy for a large-N infrasound network, by leveraging acoustic–seismic coupled arrivals. The active-source component of iMUSH consisted of 23 shallowly buried explosions around Mount Saint Helens volcano; these explosions produced epicentral infrasound recorded on the nodes. We find that the bulk presence of ground-coupled infrasound on the nodes is controlled by wind noise and source–receiver distance, with observed arrivals for eight explosions. Explosions with the most extensive coupling produce complex spatial waveform patterns across the array. These patterns are related to both topographic and atmospheric propagation effects, as well as spatially variable site (coupling) effects. We compare our observations to simple topographic diffraction and high-resolution wind advection models, and full-wave numerical simulations. We find strong spatial correlations between (a) coupled arrival strength and modeled topographic obstruction and (b) coupled arrival time and along-path winds. Our seismoacoustic analyses and results are applicable to other existing and future nodal seismic data sets and can expand the utility of such deployments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of Seismic Wave Amplification in Sedimentary Basins Using 3D Wavefield Simulations: Nenana Basin, Central Alaska

We investigate seismic wave amplification in Nenana basin, central Alaska, using 3D seismic wavefield simulations. We quantify frequency-dependent amplification by comparing synthetic seismograms among four different seismic velocity models: (a) a tomographic model, (b) a tomographic model with the uppermost 6.5 km replaced by a 1D basin profile, (c) a tomographic model with an embedded ellipsoidal basin, and (d) a tomographic model with an embedded realistic basin. For each model we perform wavefield simulations accurate up to 2 Hz for a set of 10 different earthquakes, which provide a range of frequencies and incident angles for waves interacting with the basin. Average amplification ratios are four on the horizontal components and seven on the vertical component. The dominant influence of the amplification is the 3D geometry of the basin, not the slow-velocity profile near the surface. Our synthetic amplification ratios are in general agreement with amplification estimates obtained from 14 stations that recorded the same set of earthquakes. Our approach offers a general strategy for documenting frequency-dependent basin amplification for a region with realistic basin structures and local earthquakes.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

An exponential build-up in seismic energy suggests a months-long nucleation of slow slip in Cascadia

Slow slip events result from the spontaneous weakening of the subduction megathrust and bear strong resemblance to earthquakes, only slower. This resemblance allows us to study fundamental aspects of nucleation that remain elusive for classic, fast earthquakes. We rely on machine learning algorithms to infer slow slip timing from statistics of seismic waveforms. We find that patterns in seismic power follow the 14-month slow slip cycle in Cascadia, arguing in favor of the predictability of slow slip rupture. Here, we show that seismic power exponentially increases as the slowly slipping portion of the subduction zone approaches failure, a behavior that shares a striking similarity with the increase in acoustic power observed prior to laboratory slow slip events. Our results suggest that the nucleation phase of Cascadia slow slip events may last from several weeks up to several months.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Crustal permeability generated through microearthquakes is constrained by seismic moment

We link changes in crustal permeability to informative features of microearthquakes (MEQs) using two field hydraulic stimulation experiments where both MEQs and permeability evolution are recorded simultaneously. The Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) model effectively predicts permeability evolution and ultimate permeability increase. Our findings confirm the form of key features linking the MEQs to permeability, offering mechanistically consistent interpretations of this association. Transfer learning correctly predicts permeability evolution of one experiment from a model trained on an alternate dataset and locale, which further reinforces the innate interdependency of permeability-to-seismicity. Models representing permeability evolution on reactivated fractures in both shear and tension suggest scaling relationships in which changes in permeability (Δk) are linearly related to the seismic moment (M) of individual MEQs as Δk ∝ M. This scaling relation rationalizes our observation of the permeability-to-seismicity linkage, contributes to its predictive robustness and accentuates its potential in characterizing crustal permeability evolution using MEQs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cubic-meter scale laboratory fault re-activation experiments to improve the understanding of induced seismicity risks

Abstract To understand fluid induced seismicity, we have designed a large-scale laboratory experiment consisting of a one-cubic-meter sandstone with an artificial fault cut and fluid-injection boreholes. The sandstone block is assembled in a true triaxial loading frame and equipped with 38 piezoelectric sensors to locate and characterise acoustic emission events. The differential stress on the artificial fault is increased in stages to bring it towards a critically stressed state. After each stage of differential stress increase, fluids are injected at low pressures through boreholes to test the potential of fault re-activation. In addition, a high-pressure injection was conducted that created a hydraulic fracture from the injection borehole towards the artificial fault. The newly generated fluid pathway resulted in an activation of the complete block through a stick–slip movement. We compare acoustic emission measurements from the laboratory experiment with seismicity observations from the field-scale CO 2 injection at Decatur, Illinois, U.S., and conclude that the existence of fluid pathways plays a decisive role for the potential of induced seismicity.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗