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At least 343 records · Page 19

Efficient Active Learning for Gaussian Process Classification by Error Reduction

Active learning sequentially selects the best instance for labeling by optimizing an acquisition function to enhance data/label efficiency. The selection can be either from a discrete instance set (pool-based scenario) or a continuous instance space (query synthesis scenario). In this work, we study both active learning scenarios for Gaussian Process Classification (GPC). The existing active learning strategies that maximize the Estimated Error Reduction (EER) aim at reducing the classification error after training with the new acquired instance in a onestep-look-ahead manner. The computation of EER-based acquisition functions is typically prohibitive as it requires retraining the GPC with every new query. Moreover, as the EER is not smooth, it can not be combined with gradient-based optimization techniques to efficiently explore the continuous instance space for query synthesis. To overcome these critical limitations, we develop computationally efficient algorithms for EER-based active learning with GPC. Further, we derive the joint predictive distribution of label pairs as a one-dimensional integral, as a result of which the computation of the acquisition function avoids retraining the GPC for each query, remarkably reducing the computational overhead. We also derive the gradient chain rule to efficiently calculate the gradient of the acquisition function, which leads to the first query synthesis active learning algorithm implementing EER-based strategies. Our experiments clearly demonstrate the computational efficiency of the proposed algorithms. We also benchmark our algorithms on both synthetic and real-world datasets, which show superior performance in terms of sampling efficiency compared to the existing state-of-the-art algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Biosphere Futures: a database of social-ecological scenarios

T. Biosphere Futures (https://biospherefutures.net/) is a new online database to collect and discover scenario studies from across the world, with a specific focus on scenarios that explicitly incorporate interdependencies between humans and their supporting ecosystems. It provides access to a globally diverse collection of case studies that includes most ecosystems and regions, enabling exploration of the multifaceted ways in which the future might unfold. Together, the case studies illuminate the diversity and plurality of people’s expectations and aspirations for the future. The objective of Biosphere Futures is to promote the use of scenarios for sustainable development of the biosphere and to foster a community of practice around social-ecological scenarios. We do so by facilitating the assessment, synthesis, and comparative analysis of scenario case studies, pointing to relevant resources, and by helping practitioners and researchers to disseminate and showcase their own work. This article begins by outlining the rationale behind the creation of the database, followed by an introduction to its functionality and the criteria employed for selecting case studies. Subsequently, we present a synthesis of the first 100 case studies included in the scenarios database, highlighting emerging patterns and identifying potential avenues for further research. Finally, given that broader utilization and contributions to the database will enhance the achievement of Biosphere Futures’ objectives, we invite the creators of social-ecological scenarios to contribute additional case studies. By expanding the database’s breadth and depth, we can collectively foster a more nuanced understanding of the possible trajectories of our biosphere and enable better decision making for sustainable development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Search for rare 3-$α$ decays in the region of the Hoyle state of 12 C

We performed a refined analysis of the data collected with the CHIMERA detector with the aim of searching rare 3-$α$ decay modes near the Hoyle state of 12 C. In particular we investigated the direct and sequential decay modes of the Hoyle state including also the recently suggested Efimov state. The comparison of selected events with simulations constrains the precision achievable with measurements in different experimental conditions. We observe good sensitivities to different decay scenarios also in the CHIMERA spherical region notwithstanding its limited angular resolution. Furthermore, the search for the decay of the Efimov state in 12 C was performed by using new selection strategies as suggested by simulations. The obtained results are not conclusive, however, we are able to exclude the presence of a sequential decay of this state, while our data could be compatible with its direct decay.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Everybody Needs Somebody Sometimes: Validation of Adaptive Recovery in Robotic Space Operations

This work assesses an adaptive approach to fault recovery in autonomous robotic space operations, which uses indicators of opportunity, such as physiological state measurements and observations of past human assistant performance, to inform future selections. We validated our reinforcement learning approach using data we collected from humans executing simulated mission scenarios. We present a method of structuring human-factors experiments that permits collection of relevant indicator of opportunity and assigned assistance task performance data, as well as evaluation of our adaptive approach, without requiring large numbers of test subjects. Application of our reinforcement learning algorithm to our experimental data shows that our adaptive assistant selection approach can achieve lower cumulative regret compared to existing non-adaptive baseline approaches when using real human data. Our work has applications beyond space robotics to any application where autonomy failures may occur that require external intervention.

Human-centered robotics↗

Selection of representative general circulation models under climatic uncertainty for Western North America

Abstract Climate change research uses an ensemble of general circulation model runs (GCMs-runs) to predict future climate under uncertainties. To reduce computational costs, this study selects representative GCM-runs (RGCM-runs) for Western North America (WNA) based on their performance in replicating historical climate conditions from 1981 to 2005 and projecting future changes from 1981–2010 to 2071–2100. This evaluation is conducted under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. By using an envelope-based selection technique and a multi-objective distance-based approach, we identify four RGCM-runs per RCP representing diverse climatic conditions, including wet-warm, wet-cold, dry-warm, and dry-cold. Compared to the full-set, these selected runs show a decreased mean absolute error (MAE) between the reference and RGCM-runs concerning the monthly average mean air temperature (T̄) and precipitation (P̄). For RCP4.5, T̄ MAE is 0.45 (vs. 0.58 in the full-set) and P̄ MAE is 0.31 (vs. 0.42). For RCP8.5, T̄ MAE is 0.51 (vs. 0.75) and P̄ MAE is 0.25 (vs. 0.36). The lower MAE values in the RGCM-run set indicate closer alignment between predicted and reference values, making the RGCM-run suitable for climate impact assessments in the region.

Water Resources↗

Space Station Freedom growth power requirements

Options and scenarios for the evolution of Space Station Freedom beyond the current baseline have been established and analyzed at NASA Langley Research Center to identify growth requirements for the program's Preliminary Requirements Review (PRR). Time-phase requirements for electrical power and other critical resources were determined based upon the future needs of the science, technology and commercial users. In addition, impacts and resource growth were determined for the utilization of station as a transportation node in support of human exploration initiatives to the moon and/or Mars. The set of requirements chosen for the PRR were selected on the basis of their adequacy in accommodating each of the evolution options and scenarios within each option, thereby maximizing future flexibility. In the case of electrical power, growth to 275 kW (average) was determined to be adequate for evolutionary missions and station housekeeping growth, given projections of future earth-to-orbit transportation capabilities.

Meredith, B. D.↗

Parton distribution functions from scalar light-front parton gas model

Here, we propose an application of a microcanonical ensemble with light-front kinematics to model the phase-space distribution of relativistic constituents of a bound state. These constituents denoted by partons are treated as classical spin-zero particles confined inside the bound state with inter-parton collisions as their only interaction. The microcanonical molecular dynamics ensemble is applied to obtain the phase-space distribution of such a thermodynamic system. We sample this phase-space distribution using Monte Carlo algorithms to obtain the parton distribution functions (PDFs) in scenarios with 3, 4, and 5 identical partons. In addition PDFs when a selected number of massless partons are mixed with 3 massive partons are also presented.

Microcanonical ensemble↗

Theoretical predictions

In order to understand the impact of man made chemicals on the atmospheric ozone layer, it is essential to develop models that can perform long term predictions of future ozone changes. An advantage of using two dimensional models is that they can be used to predict latitudinal and seasonal changes in ozone. The formulation and recent improvements are described in 2-D models, which are used herein, along with the three dimensional models that are currently being developed to better simulate transport of chemically active trace gases, especially in polar regions. The range in 2-D model calculations is described. Selected fields calculated by these models are compared with observations. A number of scenarios have been defined, which encompass possible emission rates of different halocarbons. Because of the large uncertainties in the rates for heterogeneous processes, the calculated responses of the models include only the effects of homogeneous chemistry. One important distinction among the models is their ability to account for temperature feedbacks on the calculated ozone changes.

Brasseur, G.↗

Human factors issues for interstellar spacecraft

Developments in research on space human factors are reviewed in the context of a self-sustaining interstellar spacecraft based on the notion of traveling space settlements. Assumptions about interstellar travel are set forth addressing costs, mission durations, and the need for multigenerational space colonies. The model of human motivation by Maslow (1970) is examined and directly related to the design of space habitat architecture. Human-factors technology issues encompass the human-machine interface, crew selection and training, and the development of spaceship infrastructure during transtellar flight. A scenario for feasible instellar travel is based on a speed of 0.5c, a timeframe of about 100 yr, and an expandable multigenerational crew of about 100 members. Crew training is identified as a critical human-factors issue requiring the development of perceptual and cognitive aids such as expert systems and virtual reality.

Cohen, Marc M.↗

Fast Track NTR Systems Assessment for NASA's First Lunar Outpost Scenario

Integrated systems and mission study results are presented which quantify the rationale and benefits for developing and using nuclear thermal rocket (NTR) technology for returning humans to the moon in the early 2000's. At present, the Exploration Program Office (ExPO) is considering chemical propulsion for its 'First Lunar Outpost' (FLO) mission, and NTR propulsion for the more demanding Mars missions to follow. The use of an NTR-based lunar transfer stage, capable of evolving to Mars mission applications, could result in an accelerated schedule, reduced cost approach to moon/Mars exploration. Lunar mission applications would also provide valuable operational experience and serve as a 'proving ground' for NTR engine and stage technologies. In terms of performance benefits, studies indicate that an expendable NTR stage powered by two 50 klbf engines can deliver approximately 96 metric tons (t) to trans-lunar injection (TLI) conditions for an initial mass in low earth orbit (IMLEO) of approximately 199 t compared to 250 t for a cryogenic chemical TLI stage. The NTR stage liquid hydrogen (LH2) tank has a 10 m diameter, 14.8 m length, and 68 t LH2 capacity. The NTR utilizes a 'graphite' fuel form consisting of coated UC2 particles in a graphite substrate, and has a specific impulse capability of approximately 870 s, and an engine thrust-to-weight ratio of approximately 4.8. The NTR stage and its piloted FLO lander has a total length of approximately 38 m and can be launched by a single Saturn V-derived heavy lift launch vehicle (HLLV) in the 200 to 250 t-class range. The paper summarizes NASA's First Lunar Outpost scenario, describes characteristics for representative engine/stage configurations, and examines the impact on engine selection and vehicle design resulting from a consideration of alternative NTR fuel forms and lunar mission profiles.

Borowski, Stanley K.↗

Turbulent Concentration of MM-Size Particles in the Protoplanetary Nebula: Scaled-Dependent Multiplier Functions

The initial accretion of primitive bodies (asteroids and TNOs) from freely-floating nebula particles remains problematic. Here we focus on the asteroids where constituent particle (read "chondrule") sizes are observationally known; similar arguments will hold for TNOs, but the constituent particles in those regions will be smaller, or will be fluffy aggregates, and are unobserved. Traditional growth-bysticking models encounter a formidable "meter-size barrier" [1] (or even a mm-cm-size barrier [2]) in turbulent nebulae, while nonturbulent nebulae form large asteroids too quickly to explain long spreads in formation times, or the dearth of melted asteroids [3]. Even if growth by sticking could somehow breach the meter size barrier, other obstacles are encountered through the 1-10km size range [4]. Another clue regarding planetesimal formation is an apparent 100km diameter peak in the pre-depletion, pre-erosion mass distribution of asteroids [5]; scenarios leading directly from independent nebula particulates to this size, which avoid the problematic m-km size range, could be called "leapfrog" scenarios [6-8]. The leapfrog scenario we have studied in detail involves formation of dense clumps of aerodynamically selected, typically mm-size particles in turbulence, which can under certain conditions shrink inexorably on 100-1000 orbit timescales and form 10-100km diameter sandpile planetesimals. The typical sizes of planetesimals and the rate of their formation [7,8] are determined by a statistical model with properties inferred from large numerical simulations of turbulence [9]. Nebula turbulence can be described by its Reynolds number Re = L/eta sup(4/3), where L = ETA alpha sup (1/2) the largest eddy scale, H is the nebula gas vertical scale height, and α the nebula turbulent viscosity parameter, and η is the Kolmogorov or smallest scale in turbulence (typically about 1km), with eddy turnover time tη. In the nebula, Re is far larger than any numerical simulation can handle, so some physical model is needed to extend the results of numerical simulations to nebula conditions.

protoplanetary nebula↗

Turbulent Concentration of mm-Size Particles in the Protoplanetary Nebula: Scale-Dependent Cascades

The initial accretion of primitive bodies (here, asteroids in particular) from freely-floating nebula particles remains problematic. Traditional growth-by-sticking models encounter a formidable "meter-size barrier" (or even a mm-to-cm-size barrier) in turbulent nebulae, making the preconditions for so-called "streaming instabilities" difficult to achieve even for so-called "lucky" particles. Even if growth by sticking could somehow breach the meter size barrier, turbulent nebulae present further obstacles through the 1-10km size range. On the other hand, nonturbulent nebulae form large asteroids too quickly to explain long spreads in formation times, or the dearth of melted asteroids. Theoretical understanding of nebula turbulence is itself in flux; recent models of MRI (magnetically-driven) turbulence favor low-or- no-turbulence environments, but purely hydrodynamic turbulence is making a comeback, with two recently discovered mechanisms generating robust turbulence which do not rely on magnetic fields at all. An important clue regarding planetesimal formation is an apparent 100km diameter peak in the pre-depletion, pre-erosion mass distribution of asteroids; scenarios leading directly from independent nebula particulates to large objects of this size, which avoid the problematic m-km size range, could be called "leapfrog" scenarios. The leapfrog scenario we have studied in detail involves formation of dense clumps of aerodynamically selected, typically mm-size particles in turbulence, which can under certain conditions shrink inexorably on 100-1000 orbit timescales and form 10-100km diameter sandpile planetesimals. There is evidence that at least the ordinary chondrite parent bodies were initially composed entirely of a homogeneous mix of such particles. Thus, while they are arcane, turbulent concentration models acting directly on chondrule size particles are worthy of deeper study. The typical sizes of planetesimals and the rate of their formation can be estimated using a statistical model with properties inferred from large numerical simulations of turbulence. Nebula turbulence is described by its Reynolds number Re = (L/eta)(exp 4/3), where L = H alpha(exp 1/2) is the largest eddy scale, H is the nebula gas vertical scale height, alpha the turbulent viscosity parameter, and eta is the Kolmogorov or smallest scale in turbulence (typically about 1km), with eddy turnover time t(sub eta). In the nebula, Re is far larger than any numerical simulation can handle, so some physical arguments are needed to extend the results of numerical simulations to nebula conditions. In this paper, we report new physics to be incorporated into our statistical models.

mm-size particles↗

Simulating PACE Global Ocean Radiances

The NASA PACE mission is a hyper-spectral radiometer planned for launch in the next decade. It is intended to provide new information on ocean biogeochemical constituents by parsing the details of high resolution spectral absorption and scattering. It is the first of its kind for global applications and as such, poses challenges for design and operation. To support pre-launch mission development and assess on-orbit capabilities, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has developed a dynamic simulation of global water-leaving radiances, using an ocean model containing multiple ocean phytoplankton groups, particulate detritus, particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), and chromophoric dissolved organic carbon (CDOC) along with optical absorption and scattering processes at 1 nm spectral resolution. The purpose here is to assess the skill of the dynamic model and derived global radiances. Global bias, uncertainty, and correlation are derived using available modern satellite radiances at moderate spectral resolution. Total chlorophyll, PIC, and the absorption coefficient of CDOC (aCDOC), are simultaneously assimilated to improve the fidelity of the optical constituent fields. A 5-year simulation showed statistically significant (P < 0.05) comparisons of chlorophyll (r = 0.869), PIC (r = 0.868), and a CDOC (r =0.890) with satellite data. Additionally, diatoms (r = 0.890), cyanobacteria (r = 0.732), and coccolithophores (r = 0.716) were significantly correlated with in situ data. Global assimilated distributions of optical constituents were coupled with a radiative transfer model (Ocean-Atmosphere Spectral Irradiance Model, OASIM) to estimate normalized water-leaving radiances at 1 nm for the spectral range 250-800 nm. These unassimilated radiances were within 0.074 mW/sq cm/micron/sr of MODIS-Aqua radiances at 412, 443, 488, 531, 547, and 667 nm. This difference represented a bias of 10.4% (model low). A mean correlation of 0.706 (P < 0.05) was found with global distributions of MODIS radiances. These results suggest skill in the global assimilated model and resulting radiances. The reported error characterization suggests that the global dynamical simulation can support some aspects of mission design and analysis. For example, the high spectral resolution of the simulation supports investigations of band selection. The global nature of the radiance representations supports investigations of satellite observing scenarios. Global radiances at bands not available in current and past missions support investigations of mission capability. PACE, ocean color, water-leaving radiances, biogeochemical model, radiative transfer model

PIC↗

Degradation and deforestation increase the sensitivity of the Amazon Forest to climate extremes

About 40% of the Brazilian Amazon has been deforested or suffered changes in forest structure through degradation (selective logging, fires, and fragmentation). The impact of forest degradation on the forest’s sensitivity to climate extremes has not been fully explored because of a lack of data and the complex interplay of forest structure and climate drivers. Here, we combined forest structure data from 545 airborne lidar transects (375 ha each) across the Brazilian Amazon with the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED2). We explore the forest’s functional response to near-present (1981–2019) climate extremes under observed forest structure from lidar ( Control ) and two forest structure change scenarios: (1) forest recovery by excluding all future deforestation and degradation ( Recovery ) and (2) expansion of selective logging and deforestation ( Degradation ). Using the Control simulation, we found a close and positive association between local forest aboveground biomass and the predicted gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Moreover, both GPP and ET respond negatively to extremes in vapor pressure deficit and downwelling shortwave irradiance in degraded forests in Eastern and Southern Amazon, indicating high sensitivity to droughts. Locally high-biomass forest patches showed little or no negative response of GPP and ET to extreme drought conditions whereas low-biomass forest patches in the same locations—typically degraded forest canopies—responded negatively to higher moisture stress. The results from the Recovery scenario showed similar results to simulations with observed structure; however, under the Degradation scenario, low-biomass forest patches became more abundant, resulting in more regions where GPP and ET are negatively impacted by hot drought conditions according to the ED2 model. Our results suggest that local forest structure is a critical determinant of an ecosystem’s response to climate variability, and that the loss of canopy trees in the Amazon through forest degradation could increase and expand forest vulnerability to droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex due to increasing contributions of renewable energy generation, energy storage, electrified end uses, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and subjective process. In this work, we assess datasets from various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We present evaluations of their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparisons of their future projections of climate change for two climate change scenarios. We present the results for different climatic and energy system regions and include interactive figures in the accompanying software repository. Previous work has presented similar GCM evaluations, but none have presented variables and metrics specifically intended for comprehensive energy systems analysis including impacts on energy demand, thermal cooling, hydropower, water availability, solar energy generation, and wind energy generation. We focus on GCM output meteorological variables that directly affect these energy system components including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this work is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and scenarios in subsequent work.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Different Formation Scenarios for Counterrotating Stellar Disks in Nearby Galaxies

Using the integral field unit data from the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory survey, we select a sample of 101 galaxies with counterrotating stellar disks and regularly rotating ionized gas disks. We classify the 101 galaxies into four types based on the features of their stellar velocity fields. The relative fractions and stellar population age radial gradients of the four types are different in the blue cloud, green valley, and red sequence populations. We suggest different formation scenarios for counterrotating stellar disks; the key factors in the formation of counterrotating stellar disks include (1) the abundance of preexisting gas in the progenitor and (2) the efficiency in angular momentum consumption.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

IM3 Phase 2 Official Simulations: GCAM-Demeter-SELECT Annualized Land Use and Land Cover, Wood Harvest and Fertilization Data with Dynamic Urbanization Harmonized to CLM Land Definitions at 0.125 Degrees

Annualized land use land cover data, including wood harvest and fertilizer use data from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) downscaled to 0.125 degrees for couping with the Community Land Model (CLM). GCAM here refers to GCAM-USA v5.3.im3 which has an enhanced electricity sector and an updated data system needed to represent regional to local scale dynamics. Data is also harmonized with future urbanization projections from the Spatially-Explicit, Long-term, Empirical City developmenT (SELECT) model. Projections/Data are generated using the demeter land use and land cover downscaling model. Original projections were generated at 0.05 degrees before being aggregared to 0.125 degrees. Projections are available for 8 alternative scenarios. Two versions of final data are included- one with managed forests or harvested forest area per pixel broken out and one with the same aggregated into total forests. Following folders are included: demeter_78_PFT_output:This is the final output of dynamic land use land cover change for 78 PFTs as required by CLM raw_outputs_incl_managed_forest: This is the final output but with managed forests broken out as a different PFT. Essentially a 79th PFT is added. wood_harvest_outputs: Wood harvest output per pixel in gC/m2 fertilization_outputs: Fertilizer use per pixel in gN/m2 Each NetCDF file in each folder represents a projection for a separate year, scenario. Land use outputs are organized as PFT level data saved as subdata. Link to GCAM version used- https://data.msdlive.org/records/yb23g-44274 Link to SELECT documentation -https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815219301707 Link to CLM documentation- - https://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/clm In case of questions contact- kanishka.narayan@pnnl.gov

GCAM-USA↗

Sizing and Location Selection of Medium‐Voltage Back‐to‐Back Converters for DER‐Dominated Distribution Systems

Medium‐voltage back‐to‐back (MVB2B) converters can connect two distribution systems and quantifiably transfer power between them. This function can enable the MVB2B converter to exchange distributed energy resource (DER)‐generated power between two systems and bring significant value to enhancing distribution system DER adoption. Our previous work analysed and demonstrated the value MVB2B converter can bring to DER integration. As continuous work, this paper presents a methodology that helps address the MVB2B converter sizing and location selection problem in distribution systems with high DER penetrations. The proposed methodology aims to address three critical problems for MVB2B converter implementation in the real world: (1) which distribution systems are better to be connected, (2) what converter size is appropriate for connecting the distribution systems, and (3) where the optimal connection points are in the systems for connecting the MVB2B converter. The proposed methodology has been demonstrated by case studies that include various scenarios involving distribution systems with different dominated load types and high photovoltaic penetrations. The results demonstrate that selecting the optimal converter size based on net revenue and time of return considerations leads to a balance between maximizing energy savings and minimizing financial payback periods. Furthermore, feeder pair selection based on load profile standard deviation effectively identifies systems that derive the greatest value from MVB2B integration. Finally, an optimized connection point selection approach using a voltage load sensitivity matrix ensures minimal system impact while facilitating efficient power exchange. These findings provide practical insights for the real‐world deployment of MVB2B converters to enhance DER hosting capacity and improve grid resilience.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗