Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “root productivity”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 343 records · Page 19

Mining the Gravity Mutants of Arabidopsis

Gravity mutants are a valuable resource for understanding gravity perception, signaling, and response in plants. A review of 190 publications resulted in a list of 97 loci with mutations that caused a gravitropic phenotype. While all these mutants show some form of gravity phenotype, several are also generally defective in growth. After removing these nonspecific mutants, 76 loci were deemed to have true gravity mutants. The gene list was then used to create a sortable database containing key factors of gravity signaling as well as data on methodologies and the development of mutant lines. Indexing this database has allowed us to pull out trends that were not visible in individual publications. For example, mutants that are unable to rearrange starch statoliths make up a larger proportion of the described inflorescence stems mutants than any other organ. Comparing these statolith mutants across organs shows that root and inflorescence stems consistently display different phenotypes for the same class of defect. The more severe gravity defects are most commonly described in root tissue while other tissues are more likely to show only a delayed or reduced response to gravity. The experience of members of the GeneLab plant Analytics Working Group (AWG) in data visualization and gene mapping have sparked new ideas for utilizing this database. Knowledge of shared traits, mutant development, and growth can provide a new resource for the production of seed lines specialized for their response to gravity.

gravitropism↗

Liquid annulus

It is shown that the specific impulse varies with the square root of the temperature and inversely with the square root of the molecular weight of the propellant. Typical values for specific impulse corresponding to various rocket concepts are shown. The Liquid Annulus core concept consists of a fuel element which will be arranged in a moderator block. The advantages as seen for the system are: high specific impulse; structural material will all run at low temperature; and lower fission product inventory because of evaporation. It is felt that this concept is worth at least a first look because of the promise of very high specific impulse. Because of the low thrust, one would probably need a cluster of engines. This is not necessarily bad because there would be some redundancy, but because of the low thrust one might have to refuel while running. Depending on the fuel vaporization, material can be included in the uranium that is injected as one is running along.

Ludewig, Hans↗

Melt-processing of lunar ceramics

The goal of this project is to produce useful ceramics materials from lunar resources using the by products of lunar oxygen production processes. Emphasis is being placed on both fabrication of a variety of melt-processed ceramics, and on understanding the mechanical properties of these materials. Previously, glass-ceramics were formed by casting large glass monoliths and heating these to grow small crystallites. The strengths of the resulting glass-ceramics were found to vary with the inverse square root of the crystal grain size. The highest strengths (greater than 300 MPa) were obtained with the smallest crystal sizes (less than 10 microns). During the past year, the kinetics of crystallization in simulated lunar regolith were examined in an effort to optimize the microstructure and, hence, mechanical properties of glass ceramics. The use of solar energy for melt-processing of regolith was examined, and strong (greater than 630 MPa) glass fibers were successfully produced by melt-spinning in a solar furnace. A study of the mechanical properties of simulated lunar glasses was completed during the past year. As on Earth, the presence of moisture was found to weaken simulated lunar glasses, although the effects of surface flaws was shown to outweigh the effect of atmospheric moisture on the strength of lunar glasses. The effect of atmospheric moisture on the toughness was also studied. As expected, toughness was found to increase only marginally in an anhydrous atmosphere. Finally, our efforts to involve undergraduates in the research lab fluorished this past year. Four undergraduates worked on various aspects of these projects; and two of them were co-authors on papers which we published.

Fabes, B. D.↗

Assimilation of Gridded GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Estimates in the North American Land Data Assimilation System

The objective of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) is to provide best available estimates of near-surface meteorological conditions and soil hydrological status for the continental United States. To support the ongoing efforts to develop data assimilation (DA) capabilities for NLDAS, the results of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) DA implemented in a manner consistent with NLDAS development are presented. Following previous work, GRACE terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomaly estimates are assimilated into the NASA Catchment land surface model using an ensemble smoother. In contrast to many earlier GRACE DA studies, a gridded GRACE TWS product is assimilated, spatially distributed GRACE error estimates are accounted for, and the impact that GRACE scaling factors have on assimilation is evaluated. Comparisons with quality-controlled in situ observations indicate that GRACE DA has a positive impact on the simulation of unconfined groundwater variability across the majority of the eastern United States and on the simulation of surface and root zone soil moisture across the country. Smaller improvements are seen in the simulation of snow depth, and the impact of GRACE DA on simulated river discharge and evapotranspiration is regionally variable. The use of GRACE scaling factors during assimilation improved DA results in the western United States but led to small degradations in the eastern United States. The study also found comparable performance between the use of gridded and basin averaged GRACE observations in assimilation. Finally, the evaluations presented in the paper indicate that GRACE DA can be helpful in improving the representation of droughts.

Kumar, Sujay V.↗

Implementing a Nitrogen-Based Model for Autotrophic Respiration Using Satellite and Field Observations

The rate of carbon accumulation by terrestrial plant communities in a process-level, mechanistic modeling is the difference of the rate of gross photosynthesis by a canopy (A(sub g)) and autotrophic respiration (R) of the stand. Observations for different biomes often show that R to be a large and variable fraction of A(sub g), ca. 35% to 75%, although other studies suggest the ratio of R and A(sub g) to be less variable. Here, R has been calculated according to the two compartment model as being the sum of maintenance and growth components. The maintenance respiration of foliage and living fine roots for different biomes has been determined objectively from observed nitrogen content of these organs. The sapwood maintenance respiration is based on pipe theory, and checked against an independently derived equation considering sapwood biomass and its maintenance coefficient. The growth respiration has been calculated from the difference of A(sub g) and maintenance respiration. The A(sub g) is obtained as the product of biome-specific radiation use efficiency for gross photosynthesis under unstressed conditions and intercepted photosynthetically active radiation, and adjusted for stress. Calculations have been done using satellite and ground observations for 36 consecutive months (1987-1989) over large contiguous areas (ca. 10(exp 5) sq km) of boreal forests, crop land, temperate deciduous forest, temperate grassland, tropical deciduous forest, tropical evergreen forest, tropical savanna, and tundra. The ratio of annual respiration and gross photosynthesis, (R/A(sub g)), is found to be 0.5-0.6 for temperate and cold adopted biome areas, but somewhat higher for tropical biome areas (0.6-0.7). Interannual variation of the fluxes is found to be generally less than 15%. Calculated fluxes are compared with observations and several previous estimates. Results of sensitivity analysis are presented for uncertainties in parameterization and input data. It is found that uncertainty in determining maintenance respiration for tropical biomes is such that R/A(sub g) for these biomes could be similar to that for temperate biomes.

Choudhury, Bhaskar J.↗

MISR Level 1A CCD Science data, all cameras (MIL1A_V1)

The Level 1A data are raw MISR data that are decommutated, reformatted 12-bit Level 0 data shifted to byte boundaries, i.e., reversal of square-root encoding applied and converted to 16 bit, and annotated (e.g., with time information). These data are used by the Level 1B1 processing algorithm to generate calibrated radiances. The science data output preserves the spatial sampling rate of the Level 0 raw MISR CCD science data. CCD data are collected during routine science observations of the sunlit portion of the Earth. Each product represents one 'granule' of data. A 'granule' is defined to be the smallest unit of data required for MISR processing. Also, included in the Level 1A product are pointers to calibration coefficient files provided for Level 1B processing. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=2000-02-24; Stop_Date=] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180].

CCD↗

MISR Level 1A CCD Science data, all cameras (MIL1A_V2)

The Level 1A data are raw MISR data that are decommutated, reformatted 12-bit Level 0 data shifted to byte boundaries, i.e., reversal of square-root encoding applied and converted to 16 bit, and annotated (e.g., with time information). These data are used by the Level 1B1 processing algorithm to generate calibrated radiances. The science data output preserves the spatial sampling rate of the Level 0 raw MISR CCD science data. CCD data are collected during routine science observations of the sunlit portion of the Earth. Each product represents one 'granule' of data. A 'granule' is defined to be the smallest unit of data required for MISR processing. Also, included in the Level 1A product are pointers to calibration coefficient files provided for Level 1B processing. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=2000-02-24; Stop_Date=] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180].

AM-1↗

The SMAP Level-4 ECO Product - Phase 1: Improving Vegetation Simulations Through Observation-Driven Parameter Estimation

Simulations of hydrological fields as well as water, energy and carbon fluxes from the land surface to the atmosphere are crucial for a wide range of applications, including agricultural advisories, forecasts of (short-term) atmospheric behavior and seasonal weather predictions including forecasts of extreme events, such as heatwaves or droughts. The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 (L4) Eco-Hydrology (ECO) project aims to improve modeled estimates of the terrestrial water, energy and carbon fluxes and states by developing a fully-coupled hydrology-vegetation data assimilation (DA) algorithm. The DA system is developed for the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) Catchment-CN land surface model, which combines land hydrology components of the GEOS-5 Catchment model with dynamic vegetation components of the Community Land Model version 4. Catchment-CN fully couples the terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, allowing feedbacks from the land hydrology to the biosphere and vice versa. For SMAP L4 ECO a calibration of the Catchment-CN vegetation parameterization against observations of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is implemented to improve the model's standalone skill. Next, the DA algorithm used to produce the SMAP L4 soil moisture product is adapted to Catchment-CN to assimilate SMAP brightness temperatures and inform the model's land hydrology component. The DA system is further extended to assimilate MODIS FPAR observations in order to constrain the model's dynamic vegetation component. In this presentation, we demonstrate that the Catchment-CN parameter calibration leads to more realistic vegetation simulations and reduces the root mean squared error between modeled and observed vegetation states across the model's various plant functional types. We also show that the assimilation of SMAP observations is able to improve the average correlation, bias and unbiased RMSE between the modeled surface and root zone soil moisture estimates, and ground observations from the SMAP core validation sites.

Kolassa, J.↗

Systems Health Monitoring: Integrating FMEA into Bayesian Networks

The foreseeable high traffic density suggests that a large number of electric propulsion systems will enter the airspace, and that they will also operate at high frequency, e.g., large number of take offs and landings per unit time. The reliability of such critical systems is therefore key to ensure high safety standards in the low-altitude airspace. Diagnostic systems, which aim at identifying incipient faults, can mitigate unexpected failures or lower-than-expected reliability by performing early fault detection by monitoring the systems. A key element of fault diagnosis is fault detection and isolation (FDI), which complexity increases with the complexity of the system itself, namely the number of subsystems and components, interactions among sub-systems, and the number of sensors available. The proposed approach leverages combination of failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) integrated with Bayesian networks, thus introducing dependability structures into a diagnostic framework to aid FDI. Faults and failure events from the FMEA are mapped within a Bayesian network, where network edges replicate the links embedded within FMEAs. The integrated framework enables the fault isolation process by identifying the probability of occurrence of specific faults or root causes given evidence observed through sensor signals. In this work, sub systems of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) type vehicle like avionics, structures, power-train etc. are taken into account to show the approach at the system level. This work integrates early design phase in the development of UAM type vehicles with diagnostic tools, which are often developed later in the product life-cycle, or retrofitted at a later time on systems. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) derived for the system in the design phase is embedded within a Bayesian network (BN).

UAM↗

Necklaces, symmetries and self-reciprocal polynomials

The connection between a certain class of necklaces and self-reciprocal polynomials over finite fields is shown. For equal to or greater than 2, self-reciprocal polynomials of degree 2n arising from monic irreducible polynomials of degree n are shown to be either irreducible or the product of two irreducible factors which are necessarily reciprocal polynomials. DeBruijn's (1959) method is used to count the number of necklaces in this class and hence obtain a formula for the number of irreducible self-reciprocal polynomials, showing that they exist for every even degree. Thus every extension of a finite field of even degree can be obtained by adjoining a root of an irreducible self-reciprocal polynomial.

Miller, R. L.↗

Evaluating Plant Suberin Mutants for Enhanced Water and Nutrient Uptake to Increase Biomass Production Under Elevated CO2 Concentrations

Spaceflight cabin environments such as the International Space Station (ISS) typically have elevated CO2(1500-7000 μmol mol-1), which can affect plant growth and development. On earth, findings from FACE (Free-Air CO2Enrichment) and climate change studies have shown that plants grown at elevated (~ 700 μmol mol-1) CO2contain reduced levels of essential elements such as nitrogen, zinc, and iron. We hypothesized that spacecraft environments with elevated CO2 might likewise result in less nutritious crops for human consumption. Literature showed that quantitative differences in root suberin content could determine the permeability of the internal plant tissues to both water and solutes. To evaluate if there was a correlation between growth under elevated CO2and root suberin content we grew Arabidopsis thaliana, wild type (WT)(col-0), esb1(Enhanced Suberin 1) and horst1(Hydroxylase of Root Suberized Tissue)under ambient (~ 420± 25μmol mol-1) and elevated (800 ± 25, 1600 ± 25, 4000 ± 25 μmol mol-1) CO2concentrations. Comparing the growth of esb1and horst1plants to WT under ambient and elevated CO2concentrations, esb1showed significantly (P-value < 0.05) lower total fresh biomass whereas the horst1exhibited no significant difference. RNA sequencing revealed genes related to water uptake or nutrient availability stress upregulated due to the exposure to 800 and 1600 μmol mol-1CO2.Comparing the elemental composition of leaf tissue between WT and horst1plants grown under elevated CO2,we found an overall decrease in elemental composition for WT, whereas horst1showed an average increase of 30-60 % in the elemental contentsat1600 μmol mol-1compared to plants grown at ambient CO2. In conclusion, our results showed that horst1like modification to edible crops could improve the nutritional (elemental) content to supplement astronaut’s diet.

Anirudha R Dixit↗

Aerojet - Attitude Control Engines

All the engines were both qualification and acceptance tested at Marquardt s facilities. After we won the Apollo Program contract, we went off and built two vacuum test facilities, which simulated altitude continuous firing for as long as we wanted to run an engine. They would run days and days with the same capability we had on steam ejection. We did all of the testing in both for the qualification and the acceptance test. One of them was a large ball, which was an eighteen-foot diameter sphere, evacuated again with a big steam ejector system that could be used for system testing; that s where we did the Lunar Excursion Module testing. We put the whole cluster in there and tested the entire cluster at the simulated altitude conditions. The lowest altitude we tested at - typically an acceptance test - was 105,000 feet simulated altitude. The big ball - because people were interested in what they called goop formation, which is an unburned hydrazine product migrating to cold surfaces on different parts of spacecraft - was built to address those kinds of issues. We ran long-life tests in a simulated space environment with the entire inside of the test cell around the test article, liquid nitrogen cooled, so it could act as getter for any of the exhaust products. That particular facility could pull down to about 350,000 feet (atmosphere) equivalent altitude, which was pushing pretty close to the thermodynamic triple point of the MMH. It was a good test facility. Those facilities are no longer there. When the guys at Marquardt sold the company to what eventually became part of Aerojet, all those test facilities were cut off at the roots. I think they have a movie studio there at this point. That part of it is truly not recoverable, but it did some excellent high-altitude, space-equivalent testing at the time. Surprisingly, we had very few problems while testing in the San Fernando Valley. In the early 1960s, nobody had ever seen dinitrogen tetroxide (N2O4), so that wasn't too big a deal. We really did only make small, red clouds. In all the hundreds of thousands of tests and probably well over one million firings that I was around that place for, in all that thirty-something years, we had a total of one serious injury associated with rocket engine testing and propellants. Because we were trying to figure out what propellants would really be good, we tried all of the fun stuff like the carbon tetrafluoride, chlorine pentafluoride, and pure fluorine. The materials knowledge wasn't all that great at the time. On one test, the fluorine we had didn't react well with the copper they were using for tubing, and it managed to cause another unscheduled disassembly of the facility. It was very serious. It's like one of those Korean War stories. The technician happened to be walking past the test facility when it decided to blow itself up. A piece of copper tubing pierced one cheek and came out the other. That was the only serious accident in all of the engines handled in all those years. Now, we did have a problem with the EPA later because they figured out what the brown clouds were about. We built a whole bunch of exhaust mitigation scrubbers to take care of engine testing in the daytime. In general, we operated the big shuttle (RCS) engine, the 870- pounder at nominal conditions; they scrubbed the effluents pretty well. If you operated that same 870-pound force engine at a level where you get a lot of excess oxidizer, yeah, there s a brown cloud. But, you know, it doesn't show up well in the dark. They did do some of that. But, that s gone; it was addressed one way or another. RELEASED -

Pfeifer, Gerald R.↗

The SMAP Level-4 ECO Project: Improving Terrestrial Flux Estimates Through Coupled Hydrology-Vegetation Data Assimilation

Simulations of hydrologic and vegetation states as well as water, energy and carbon fluxes from the land surface to the atmosphere are crucial for a wide range of applications, including agricultural advisories, forecasts of (short-term) atmospheric behavior and seasonal weather predictions including forecasts of extreme events, such as heatwaves or droughts. The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 Eco-Hydrology (L4-ECO) project aims to improve modeled estimates of the terrestrial water, energy and carbon fluxes and states by developing a fully-coupled hydrology-vegetation data assimilation system. This system is developed around the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Catchment-CN land surface model, which combines land hydrology and energy balance components of the GEOS Catchment model with dynamic vegetation components of the Community Land Model version 4. Catchment-CN fully couples the terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, allowing feedbacks from the land hydrology to the biosphere and vice versa.Here, we implement a calibration of the Catchment-CN vegetation parameterization against observations of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to improve the model's standalone skill. Later, the DA algorithm used to produce the SMAP L4 soil moisture product will be adapted to Catchment-CN to assimilate SMAP brightness temperatures and inform the model's land hydrology component. Finally, the DA system will be further extended to assimilate MODIS FPAR observations in order to constrain the model's dynamic vegetation component.In this presentation, we demonstrate that the Catchment-CN parameter calibration leads to more realistic vegetation simulations and reduces the root mean squared error between modeled and observed vegetation states across the model's various plant functional types. We also show that the assimilation of SMAP observations is able to improve the average correlation, bias and unbiased RMSE between the modeled surface and root zone soil moisture estimates, and ground observations from the SMAP core validation sites.

Kolassa, Jana↗

Evaluation of Landsat image registration accuracy

The Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) is an attempt to demonstrate the capability to forecast the annual production of major crops such as wheat and corn. Good image registration of data acquired on different dates is one of the key assumptions made in LACIE. This paper describes an algorithm to measure the accuracy of the current registration procedure. This algorithm employs a modified version of sequential similarity detection algorithm (SSDA). Based on over 264 registration checks, it was found that the root-mean-square of registration errors was 1.0 pixel. The failure rate of our registration checking algorithm was less than 10 per cent and the standard deviation of the accuracy of this algorithm was less than 0.2 picture element.

Kaneko, T.↗

Limiting Data Friction by Reducing Data Download Using Spatiotemporally Aligned Data Organization Through STARE

Current data processing practice limits the volume and variety of relevant geoscience data that can practically be applied to important problems. File archives in centralized data centers are the principal means by which Earth Science data are accessed. This approach, however, requires laborious search, retrieval, and eventual customization/adaptation for the data to be used. Such fractionation makes it even more difficult to share outcomes, i.e. research artifacts and data products, hampering reusability and repeatability, since end users generally have their own research agenda and preferences as well as scarce resources. Thus, while finding and downloading data files from central data centers are already costly for end users working in their own field, using data products from other disciplines rapidly becomes prohibitive. This curtails scientific productivity, limits avenues of study, and endangers quality and reproducibility. The Spatio-Temporal Adaptive Resolution Encoding (STARE) is a unifying scheme that facilitates the indexing, access, and fusion of diverse Earth Science data. STARE implements an innovative encoding of geo-spatiotemporal information, originally developed for aligning datasets with diverse spatiotemporal characteristics in an array database. The spatial component of STARE recursively quadfurcates a root polyhedron, producing a hierarchical scheme for addressing geographic locations and regions. The temporal component of STARE uses conventional date-time units as an indexing hierarchy. The additional encoding of spatial and temporal resolution information in STARE enables comparisons and conditional selections across diverse datasets. Moreover, spatiotemporal set-operations, e.g. union and intersection, are mapped to efficient integer operations with STARE. Applied to existing data models (point, grid, spacecraft swath) and corresponding granules, STARE indexes provide a streamlined description usable as geo-spatiotemporal metadata. When coupled with large scale, distributed hardware and software, STARE-based data access reduces pre-analysis data preparation costs by offering a convenient means to align different datasets spatiotemporally without specialized effort in parallel computing or distributed data management.

Kuo, Kwo-Sen↗

Hand-Held Instrument Fights Acne, Tops Over-the-Counter Market

Tyrell Inc., a Houston-based medical technologies company, was able to access engineering support in redesigning a heating element for a hand-held acne-fighting device through SATOP, NASA's Space Alliance Technology Outreach Program. SATOP put Tyrell in contact with The Boeing Company, which assessed the design and made several major contributions. The product, named Zeno, is now the highest selling over-the-counter medical device for the treatment of acne, and in 2006, Zeno was named the "SATOP Texas, Success Story of the Year." Zeno employs proprietary ClearPoint technology to provide relief of mild to moderate inflammatory acne by delivering a precisely controlled low-level dosage of heat to the blemish, causing the bacteria at the root of more than 90 percent of acne to self-destruct. Within its first year on the market, Zeno was cited by various publications for several awards, including Allure's 2005 "Best of Beauty," Marie Claire's "10 Best Gadgets for Girls," and Popular Science's 2005 "Best of What's New." A variation of the Zeno for use in treating herpetic lesions such as cold sores, by killing the virus that causes them, is currently undergoing FDA trials.

Source record↗

High-Resolution Subtropical Summer Precipitation Derived from Dynamical Downscaling of the NCEP-DOE Reanalysis: How Much Small-Scale Information Is Added by a Regional Model?

This study assesses the regional-scale summer precipitation produced by the dynamical downscaling of analyzed large-scale fields. The main goal of this study is to investigate how much the regional model adds smaller scale precipitation information that the large-scale fields do not resolve. The modeling region for this study covers the southeastern United States (Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and North Carolina) where the summer climate is subtropical in nature, with a heavy influence of regional-scale convection. The coarse resolution (2.5deg latitude/longitude) large-scale atmospheric variables from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/DOE reanalysis (R2) are downscaled using the NCEP Environmental Climate Prediction Center regional spectral model (RSM) to produce precipitation at 20 km resolution for 16 summer seasons (19902005). The RSM produces realistic details in the regional summer precipitation at 20 km resolution. Compared to R2, the RSM-produced monthly precipitation shows better agreement with observations. There is a reduced wet bias and a more realistic spatial pattern of the precipitation climatology compared with the interpolated R2 values. The root mean square errors of the monthly R2 precipitation are reduced over 93 (1,697) of all the grid points in the five states (1,821). The temporal correlation also improves over 92 (1,675) of all grid points such that the domain-averaged correlation increases from 0.38 (R2) to 0.55 (RSM). The RSM accurately reproduces the first two observed eigenmodes, compared with the R2 product for which the second mode is not properly reproduced. The spatial patterns for wet versus dry summer years are also successfully simulated in RSM. For shorter time scales, the RSM resolves heavy rainfall events and their frequency better than R2. Correlation and categorical classification (above/near/below average) for the monthly frequency of heavy precipitation days is also significantly improved by the RSM.

NARR↗

Scaling Observation Error for Optimal Assimilation of CCI SST Data into a Regional HYCOM EnOI System

South Africa currently possesses no operational ocean forecasting system for the purpose of predicting ocean state variables including temperature,salinity and velocity. Substantial initial efforts towards this goal have been made and resulted in a system using a regional Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) along with the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI)assimilation scheme. Assimilating only sea surface temperature (SST) observations from the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) product into the system resulted in a degraded forecast. Aiming to address this, Climate Change Initiative (CCI) SSTs are assimilated into the system in an effort to improve the forecast skill. Observation errors in the assimilated product are used in the EnOI to determine whether more confidence should be placed in the model or observations in producing the analysis, but overconfidence in observations can shock the model and result in failure. To tweak the impact of the assimilation, a scaling factor is applied in the assimilation code. A scaling factor of 25 was found to produce a favourable result with lowest mean root mean square error (RMSE;1.098°C) between the model and observations over time. Postulating the error to be overconfident, a floor value is introduced in order to set a minimum value for the observation error thereby reducing confidence in the observations. These experiments fared less favourably with a floor value of 0.5 and a scaling factor of 15 producing the best mean RMSE (1.118°C).

Luyt, Hermann↗