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At least 343 records · Page 19

The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS): An Open-Access Model for the North American Electricity System

The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model is NREL’s flagship capacity expansion planning tool for the electric power sector in North America. Originally developed in 2001, ReEDS has been used primarily by NREL researchers to conduct high-profile analysis of the potential evolution of the electricity system. In September 2019, the core model is being released for public use. In this presentation, we provide an overview of the model architecture, key model features, data sources, lessons learned, and sample model results for the North American electric power system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Future changes in extreme precipitation over the San Francisco Bay Area: Dependence on atmospheric river and extratropical cyclone events

Extreme precipitation poses a major challenge for local governments, including the City and County of San Francisco, California, as flooding can damage and destroy infrastructure and property. As the climate continues to warm, reliable future precipitation projections are needed to provide the best possible information to decision makers. However, future changes in the magnitude of extreme precipitation are uncertain, as current state-of-the-art global climate models are typically run at relatively coarse horizontal resolutions that require the use of convective parameterization and have difficulty simulating observed extreme rainfall rates. Here, we performed ensembles of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations to investigate how five historically impactful extreme precipitation events over the San Francisco Bay Area could change if similar events occurred in future climates. We found that changes in storm-total precipitation depend strongly on storm type. Precipitation associated with an atmospheric river (AR) accompanied by an extratropical cyclone (ETC) is projected to increase at a rate exceeding (by up to 1.5 times) the theoretical Clausius Clapeyron scaling of 6–7% per °C warming. On the other hand, future precipitation changes are weak or negative for events characterized by an AR only, despite increases in precipitable water and integrated vapor transport that are similar to those of the co-occurring AR and ETC events. The differences in the sign of future precipitation change between AR-only events and co-occurring AR and ETC events is instead linked with changes in mid-tropospheric vertical velocity. Given that the majority of observed ARs are associated with an ETC, this research has important implications for future precipitation impacts over the Bay Area, as it indicates that storm-total precipitation associated with the most common type of storm event may increase by up to 26–37% in 2100 relative to historical.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhanced Hanford High-Fluoride Waste Glass Property Data Development: Phase 1

This study focused on investigating the effects of fluorine concentration on simulated high-level waste glass properties to eventually establish a fluorine limit (as a single-component or multiple-component constraint) for glass formulations for high-fluoride Hanford wastes. This is a first step to provide data to understand the impacts of changing flowsheets on the mission duration and extent. A test matrix of 20 high-fluoride glasses was generated, and the chemical compositions were measured. The following properties were measured and tested against current model predictions: crystal formation after centerline canister cooling, crystallinity as a function of temperature, density, viscosity, electrical conductivity, toxic leaching characteristics using the toxicity characteristic leach profile (TCLP), product consistency using the product consistency test (PCT), and SO 3 solubility. Overall, current models failed to adequately predict most of the properties, possibly due to differences in compositional space used to generate the models and the current test matrix. Additional work is needed to more accurately assess the impacts of high-fluoride wastes on Hanford processing, including additional data collection over a broader composition region and model development for the key models of interest such as PCT and TCLP.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Impact of lanthanide ion complexation and temperature on the chemical reactivity of N , N , N ', N '-tetraoctyl diglycolamide (TODGA) with the dodecane radical cation

The impact of trivalent lanthanide ion complexation and temperature on the chemical reactivity of N,N,N',N'-tetraoctyl diglycolamide (TODGA) with the n-dodecane radical cation (RH˙+) has been measured by electron pulse radiolysis and evaluated by quantum mechanical calculations. Additionally, Arrhenius parameters were determined for the reaction of the non-complexed TODGA ligand with the RH˙ + from 10–40 °C, giving the activation energy (E a = 17.43 ± 1.64 kJ mol –1 ) and pre-exponential factor (A = (2.36 ± 0.05) × 10 13 M –1 s –1 ). The complexation of Nd(III), Gd(III), and Yb(III) ions by TODGA yielded [LnIII(TODGA)3(NO3)3] complexes that exhibited significantly increased reactivity (up to 9.3× faster) with the RH˙ + , relative to the non-complexed ligand: k([Ln III (TODGA) 3 (NO 3 ) 3 ] + RH˙ + ) = (8.99 ± 0.93) × 10 10 , (2.88 ± 0.40) × 10 10 , and (1.53 ± 0.34) × 10 10 M –1 s –1 , for Nd(III), Gd(III), and Yb(III) ions, respectively. The rate coefficient enhancement measured for these complexes exhibited a dependence on atomic number, decreasing as the lanthanide series was traversed. Preliminary reaction free energy calculations—based on a model [Ln III (TOGDA)] 3+ complex system—indicate that both electron/hole and proton transfer reactions are energetically unfavorable for complexed TODGA. Furthermore, complementary average local ionization energy calculations showed that the most reactive region of model N,N,N',N'-tetraethyl diglycolamide (TEDGA) complexes, [Ln III (TEGDA) 3 (NO 3 ) 3 ], toward electrophilic attack is for the coordinated nitrate (NO 3 – ) counter anions. Furthermore, it is possible that radical reactions with the complexed NO 3 – counter anions dominate the differences in rates seen for the [Ln III (TODGA) 3 (NO 3 ) 3 ] complexes, and are likely responsible for the reported radioprotection in the presence of TODGA complexes.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Impacts of spatial heterogeneity of anthropogenic aerosol emissions in a regionally refined global aerosol–climate model

Abstract. Emissions of anthropogenic aerosol and their precursors are often prescribed in global aerosol models. Most of these emissions are spatially heterogeneous at model grid scales. When remapped from low-resolution data, the spatial heterogeneity in emissions can be lost, leading to large errors in the simulation. It can also cause the conservation problem if non-conservative remapping is used. The default anthropogenic emission treatment in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is subject to both problems. In this study, we introduce a revised emission treatment for the E3SM Atmosphere Model (EAM) that ensures conservation of mass fluxes and preserves the original emission heterogeneity at the model-resolved grid scale. We assess the error estimates associated with the default emission treatment and the impact of improved heterogeneity and mass conservation in both globally uniform standard-resolution (∼ 165 km) and regionally refined high-resolution (∼ 42 km) simulations. The default treatment incurs significant errors near the surface, particularly over sharp emission gradient zones. Much larger errors are observed in high-resolution simulations. It substantially underestimates the aerosol burden, surface concentration, and aerosol sources over highly polluted regions, while it overestimates these quantities over less-polluted adjacent areas. Large errors can persist at higher elevation for daily mean estimates, which can affect aerosol extinction profiles and aerosol optical depth (AOD). We find that the revised treatment significantly improves the accuracy of the aerosol emissions from surface and elevated sources near sharp spatial gradient regions, with significant improvement in the spatial heterogeneity and variability of simulated surface concentration in high-resolution simulations. In the next-generation E3SM running at convection-permitting scales where the resolved spatial heterogeneity is significantly increased, the revised emission treatment is expected to better represent the aerosol emissions as well as their lifecycle and impacts on climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Validation of seismic velocity models in southern California with full-waveform simulations

SUMMARY Crustal seismic velocity models provide essential information for many applications including earthquake source properties, simulations of ground motion and related derivative products. We present a systematic workflow for assessing the accuracy of velocity models with full-waveform simulations. The framework is applied to four regional seismic velocity models for southern California: CVM-H15.11, CVM-S4.26, CVM-S4.26.M01 that includes a shallow geotechnical layer, and the model of Berg et al. For each model, we perform 3-D viscoelastic wave propagation simulations for 48 virtual seismic noise sources (down to 2 s) and 44 moderate-magnitude earthquakes (down to 2 s generally and 0.5 s for some cases) assuming a minimum shear wave velocity of 200 m s–1. The synthetic waveforms are compared with observations associated with both earthquake records and noise cross-correlation data sets. We measure, at multiple period bands for well-isolated seismic phases, traveltime delays and normalized zero-lag cross-correlation coefficients between the synthetic and observed data. The obtained measurements are summarized using the mean absolute derivation of time delay and the mean correlation coefficient. These two metrics provide reliable statistical representations of model quality with consistent results in all data sets. In addition to assessing the overall (average) performance of different models in the entire study area, we examine spatial variations of the models’ quality. All examined models show good phase and waveform agreements for surface waves at periods longer than 5 s, and discrepancies at shorter periods reflecting small-scale heterogeneities and near-surface structures. The model performing best overall is CVM-S4.26.M01. The largest misfits for both body and surface waves are in basin structures and around large fault zones. Inaccuracies generated in these areas may affect tomography and model simulation results at other regions. The seismic velocity models for southern California can be improved by adding better resolved structural representations of the shallow crust and volumes around the main faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

AERO-MAP: a data compilation and modeling approach to understand spatial variability in fine- and coarse-mode aerosol composition

Abstract. Aerosol particles are an important part of the Earth climate system, and their concentrations are spatially and temporally heterogeneous, as well as being variable in size and composition. Particles can interact with incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation, change cloud properties, affect photochemistry, impact surface air quality, change the albedo of snow and ice, and modulate carbon dioxide uptake by the land and ocean. High particulate matter concentrations at the surface represent an important public health hazard. There are substantial data sets describing aerosol particles in the literature or in public health databases, but they have not been compiled for easy use by the climate and air quality modeling community. Here, we present a new compilation of PM2.5 and PM10 surface observations, including measurements of aerosol composition, focusing on the spatial variability across different observational stations. Climate modelers are constantly looking for multiple independent lines of evidence to verify their models, and in situ surface concentration measurements, taken at the level of human settlement, present a valuable source of information about aerosols and their human impacts complementarily to the column averages or integrals often retrieved from satellites. We demonstrate a method for comparing the data sets to outputs from global climate models that are the basis for projections of future climate and large-scale aerosol transport patterns that influence local air quality. Annual trends and seasonal cycles are discussed briefly and are included in the compilation. Overall, most of the planet or even the land fraction does not have sufficient observations of surface concentrations – and, especially, particle composition – to characterize and understand the current distribution of particles. Climate models without ammonium nitrate aerosols omit ∼ 10 % of the globally averaged surface concentration of aerosol particles in both PM2.5 and PM10 size fractions, with up to 50 % of the surface concentrations not being included in some regions. In these regions, climate model aerosol forcing projections are likely to be incorrect as they do not include important trends in short-lived climate forcers.

Mahowald, Natalie M. (ORCID:000000022873997X)↗

Traceable Black-Box Watermarks For Federated Learning

Due to the distributed nature of Federated Learning (FL) systems, each local client has access to the global model, which poses a critical risk of model leakage. Existing works have explored injecting watermarks into local models to enable intellectual property protection. However, these methods either focus on non-traceable watermarks or traceable but white-box watermarks. We identify a gap in the literature regarding the formal definition of traceable black-box watermarking and the formulation of the problem of injecting such watermarks into FL systems. In this work, we first formalize the problem of injecting traceable black-box watermarks into FL. Based on the problem, we propose a novel server-side watermarking method, TraMark, which creates a traceable watermarked model for each client, enabling verification of model leakage in black-box settings. To achieve this, TraMark partitions the model parameter space into two distinct regions: the main task region and the watermarking region. Subsequently, a personalized global model is constructed for each client by aggregating only the main task region while preserving the watermarking region. Each model then learns a unique watermark exclusively within the watermarking region using a distinct watermark dataset before being sent back to the local client. Extensive results across various FL systems demonstrate that TraMark ensures the traceability of all watermarked models while preserving their main task performance.

Xu, Jiahao [University of Nevada, Reno]↗

Linking transportation agent-based model ($\mathrm{ABM}$) outputs with micro-urban social types ($\mathrm{MUSTs}$) via typology transfer for improved community relevance

The human relationship with transportation is shaped by social, economic, demographic, and urban form variables, or socio-spatial factors. The spatial dynamics of these are key to generating and interpreting outputs of transportation models that are most relevant for a community and the diverse mobility needs of its members. Here we present a typology transfer framework, grounded in socio-spatial dynamics shaping people's mobility, to take transportation-themed regional mobility model outcomes, in this case from two agent-based models (ABMs), and extrapolate them to other cities, with less time and resource intensity than new ABM development. The typology transfer process first identifies micro-urban social types (MUSTs) using socio-spatial factors, then defines city types based on spatial patterns of MUSTs to assess across which cities transfer results are likely to best hold. Lastly, a typology transfer multiplier matrix extrapolates a given variable, in our case the Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric, to another city. The full process demonstration uses ABM results from Chicago (POLARIS model) and San Francisco (BEAM model), applying them to New York City. We discuss how MEP or other outputs can be appropriately estimated and used for integrated, human-centered mobility analysis. Key findings include that this MUST framework of user-defined dependent and independent variables allows tailoring ABM results and interpretations to specific community needs and data availability. Findings clarify that positive outcomes can be targeted towards user groups, based on sociospatial characteristics, using a typology approach, such as inclusive access to mobility choices, transportation affordability, and greater efficiency in resource use.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

cerf: A Python package to evaluate the feasibility and costs of power plant siting for alternative futures

Long-term electric power sector planning and capacity expansion is a key area of interest to stakeholders across a wide range of organizations because it helps in making informed decisions about investments in infrastructure within the context of potential future vulnerabilities under various natural and human stressors. Future power plant siting costs will depend on a number of factors including the characteristics of the electricity capacity expansion and electricity demand (e.g., fuel mix of future electric power capacity, and the magnitude and geographic distribution of electricity demand growth) as well as the geographic location of power plants. Electricity technology capacity expansion plans modeled to represent alternate future conditions meeting a set of scenario assumptions are traditionally compared against historical trends which may not be consistent with current and future conditions. We present the `cerf` Python package (a.k.a., the Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility model) which helps evaluate the feasibility and structure of future, scenario-driven electricity capacity expansion plans by siting power plants in areas that have been deemed the least cost option while considering dynamic future conditions. We can use `cerf` to gain insight to research topics such as: 1) under what conditions future projected electricity expansion plans from models such as GCAM-USA are possible to achieve, 2) where and which on-the-ground barriers to siting (e.g., protected areas, cooling water availability) may influence our ability to achieve certain expansions, and 3) how electricity infrastructure build-outs and value may evolve into the future when considering locational marginal pricing (LMP) based on the supply and demand of electricity from a grid operations model.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

CRCNS22 Learning Rules in the Hippocampus and their Mapping to Neuromorphic Systems (Final Technical Report)

Large scale biologically-realistic computational models are key to investigating the interplay between structure and function in nervous systems, thus paving the way to new clinical methods and neuro-inspired computing solutions. This project focuses on the hippocampus, in particular the CA3-CA1 regions, due to their role in associative learning and memory, pattern separation and completion, and spatial navigation. Investigations into the neuronal organization and learning rule(s) of this circuit can shed light into how declarative memories are formed, stored, recalled and forgotten and inform computational, experimental and clinical neuroscience work. Our project aims at developing a novel data-driven methodology supported by a broad heterogeneous base of neuroscience experimental knowledge and inspired from advances in computer science and engineering. Specifically, this work will benchmark existing and new learning rules within a full-scale spiking neural network simulation of the CA3-CA1 region. The model will be based on an open-source repository, called the Hippocampome, which contains neuronal morphologies, firing patterns, synapse probabilities, and most other required parameters for all known neuron types in the rodent hippocampal formation. The model will be first trained in a supervised fashion for associative memory tasks using backpropagation through time traditionally used in computer science, enhanced with a new technique called the surrogate gradient method. This optimization method will be used to obtain a global loss minimization, but it is not biologically inspired as it assumes the use of data not locally available to the synapses. However, we propose its use as a benchmarking tool, to compare the training performance of local biologically plausible and hardware-mappable learning rules at scale. New rules or combinations will be proposed and tested as needed, based on the obtained results. Progress in this area will also drive the development of novel hardware-mappable algorithms for continual lifelong learning and categorization of new events from few presented examples. This project goes beyond the existing state-of-the-art by looking at large scale realistic neuronal circuits as networks trainable via global optimization methods such as surrogate gradient descent. The objective function of the brain that supports learning is largely unknown, but it is likely that it operates through local learning rules. Studying network trajectories around local minima as proposed in this work represents a useful strategy for understanding whether a network is training by using a specific (set of) learning rule(s). Starting from a completely untrained network is a challenging test since it is difficult to determine how the learning rule affects the trajectory of the network. This interdisciplinary project will help understand what rule governs learning in these regions or if multiple learning rules are involved. The work will develop a robust methodology to measure if the network is converging to the target solution, oscillating around it, or diverging away.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

ERF: Energy Research and Forecasting Model

High performance computing (HPC) architectures have undergone rapid development in recent years. As a result, established software suites face an ever increasing challenge to remain performant on and portable across modern systems. Many of the widely adopted atmospheric modeling codes cannot fully (or in some cases, at all) leverage the acceleration provided by General-Purpose Graphics Processing Units, leaving users of those codes constrained to increasingly limited HPC resources. Energy Research and Forecasting (ERF) is a regional atmospheric modeling code that leverages the latest HPC architectures, whether composed of only Central Processing Units (CPUs) or incorporating GPUs. ERF contains many of the standard discretizations and basic features needed to model general atmospheric dynamics. The modular design of ERF provides a flexible platform for exploring different physics parameterizations and numerical strategies. ERF is built on a state-of-the-art, well-supported, software framework (AMReX) that provides a performance portable interface and ensures ERF's long-term sustainability on next generation computing systems. This paper details the numerical methodology of ERF, presents results for a series of verification/validation cases, and documents ERF's performance on current HPC systems. The roughly 5× speed up of ERF (using GPUs) over Weather Research and Forecasting (CPUs only) for a 3D squall line test case highlights the significance of leveraging GPU acceleration.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A User’s Guide to the PLTEMP/ANL Code

PLTEMP/ANL V4.4 is a program that obtains a steady-state flow and temperature solution, in geometrical extent, for a nuclear reactor core, or a single fuel assembly, including the effect of manufacturing and modelling uncertainties by the means of hot channel factors. It is based on an evolutionary sequence of codes originally used for calculating plate temperatures, hence “PLTEMP”, developed at Argonne National Laboratory over the past 30 years. Fueled and non-fueled regions are modeled. Each fuel assembly consists of one or more plates or tubes separated by coolant channels. The fuel plates may have one to five layers of different materials, each with heat generation. The width of a fuel plate may be divided into multiple longitudinal stripes, each with its own axial power shape. Depending upon the heat transfer method selected, the temperature solution is effectively 2-dimensional or 3-dimensional. The geometry may be either slab or radial, corresponding to fuel assemblies made of a series of flat (or slightly curved) plates, or of nested tubes. A variety of thermal-hydraulic correlations are available to determine safety margins such as onset of nucleate boiling ratio (ONBR), departure from nucleate boiling ratio (DNBR), and onset of flow instability ratio (OFIR). Coolant properties for either light or heavy water are obtained from FORTRAN functions rather than from tables. The code is intended for thermal-hydraulic analysis of research reactor performance in the sub-cooled boiling regime. Both turbulent and laminar flow regimes can be modeled. Options to calculate both forced flow and natural circulation are available. A general search capability for select design and safety parameters is available to greatly reduce the reactor analyst’s time.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Rock Valley Direct Comparison Relocation Working Group Location Results and Recommendations

Work accomplished: Collected and compared historic data for the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence; Compared preliminary and prior location work from different location algorithms, phase pick sets, station constellations, and velocity models; Selected a common set of stations that could be used across all location methods for consistency; Reviewed 8 different sets of phase picks and converged on a single, reviewed set of picks for all common stations; Evaluated four pre-existing regional velocity models and incorporated new and preliminary results for five new velocity models that provide information on the very shallow (< 2km) structure near station RTPP; Compared location results from different methods while using the common sets of picks, stations, and velocity models

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble

The new Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) ensemble provides high-resolution, consistent regional climate change projections for the major inhabited areas of the world. It serves as a solid scientific basis for further research related to vulnerability, impact, adaptation and climate services in addition to existing CORDEX simulations. The aim of this study is to investigate and document the climate change information provided by the CORDEX-CORE simulation ensemble, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) CORDEX community. An overview of the annual and monthly mean climate change information in selected regions in different CORDEX domains is presented for temperature and precipitation, providing the foundation for detailed follow-up studies and applications. Initially, two regional climate models (RCMs), REMO and RegCM were used to downscale global climate model output. The driving simulations by AR5 global climate models (AR5-GCMs) were selected to cover the spread of high, medium, and low equilibrium climate sensitivity at a global scale. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble has doubled the spatial resolution compared to the previously existing CORDEX simulations in most of the regions (25 $\,\mathrm {km}$ (0.22 $^{\circ }$ /jats:inline-formula>) versus 50 $\,\mathrm {km}$ (0.44 $^{\circ }$ )) leading to a potentially improved representation of, e.g., physical processes in the RCMs. The analysis focuses on changes in the IPCC physical climate reference regions. The results show a general reasonable representation of the spread of the temperature and precipitation climate change signals of the AR5-GCMs by the CORDEX-CORE simulations in the investigated regions in all CORDEX domains by mostly covering the AR5 interquartile range of climate change signals. The simulated CORDEX-CORE monthly climate change signals mostly follow the AR5-GCMs, although for specific regions they show a different change in the course of the year compared to the AR5-GCMs, especially for RCP8.5, which needs to be investigated further in region specific process studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Geospatial modeling of near subsurface temperatures of the contiguous United States for assessment of materials degradation

Abstract Understanding subsurface temperature variations is crucial for assessing material degradation in underground structures. This study maps subsurface temperatures across the contiguous United States for depths from 50 to 3500 m, comparing linear interpolation, gradient boosting (LightGBM), neural networks, and a novel hybrid approach combining linear interpolation with LightGBM. Results reveal heterogeneous temperature patterns both horizontally and vertically. The hybrid model performed best achieving a root mean square error of 2.61 °C at shallow depths (50–350 m). Model performance generally decreased with depth, highlighting challenges in deep temperature prediction. State-level analyses emphasized the importance of considering local geological factors. This study provides valuable insights for designing efficient underground facilities and infrastructure, underscoring the need for depth-specific and region-specific modeling approaches in subsurface temperature assessment.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Energetic Electrons Accelerated and Trapped in a Magnetic Bottle above a Solar Flare Arcade

Where and how flares efficiently accelerate charged particles remains an unresolved question. Recent studies revealed that a “magnetic bottle” structure, which forms near the bottom of a large-scale reconnection current sheet above the flare arcade, is an excellent candidate for confining and accelerating charged particles. However, further understanding its role requires linking the various observational signatures to the underlying coupled plasma and particle processes. Here we present the first study combining multiwavelength observations with data-informed macroscopic magnetohydrodynamics and particle modeling in a realistic eruptive flare geometry. The presence of an above-the-loop-top magnetic bottle structure is strongly supported by the observations, which feature not only a local minimum of magnetic field strength but also abruptly slowing plasma downflows. It also coincides with a compact above-the-loop-top hard X-ray source and an extended microwave source that bestrides the flare arcade. Spatially resolved spectral analysis suggests that nonthermal electrons are highly concentrated in this region. Our model returns synthetic emission signatures that are well matched to the observations. The results suggest that the energetic electrons are strongly trapped in the magnetic bottle region due to turbulence, with only a small fraction managing to escape. The electrons are primarily accelerated by plasma compression and facilitated by a fast-mode termination shock via the Fermi mechanism. Our results provide concrete support for the magnetic bottle as the primary electron acceleration site in eruptive solar flares. They also offer new insights into understanding the previously reported small population of flare-accelerated electrons entering interplanetary space.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗