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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Bimodality in simulated precipitation frequency distributions and its relationship with convective parameterizations

Abstract Bimodality in precipitation frequency distributions is often evident in atmospheric models, but rarely in observations. This study i) proposes a metric to objectively quantify the bimodality in precipitation distributions, ii) evaluates model simulations contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5), phase 6 (CMIP6), and the DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains (DYAMOND) project by comparing them to satellite-based and reanalysis precipitation products, and iii) investigates possible origins of bimodal precipitation distributions. Our results reveal that about 83% (20 out of 24) of CMIP5 and 70% (21 out of 30) of CMIP6 models used in this study exhibit bimodal distributions. The few DYAMOND models that use a deep convective parameterization also show bimodal distributions, while most DYAMOND models do not. Predictably, the bimodality originates from the separation of precipitation process between resolved grid-scale and parameterized subgrid-scale. However, in a larger number of models bimodality arises from the parameterized subgrid-scale convective precipitation alone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic cyclones have become more intense and longer-lived over the past seven decades

Intense cyclones driving extreme Arctic weather and climate events have been more frequently observed during recent years, causing dramatic environmental and socioeconomic impacts. However, inconsistencies have emerged about long-term changes in Arctic cyclone activity. Here we analyze multiple reanalysis datasets covering a multidecadal period with improvements to the cyclone tracking algorithm and the integrated cyclone activity metric. The results indicate an intensification of Arctic cyclone activity over the last seven decades. There has been a long-term shift of the maximum cyclone counts from weaker to stronger cyclones and a pronounced lengthening of the duration of strong cyclones. Spatial analysis shows increased strong cyclone frequency over the Arctic, driven by enhanced lower troposphere baroclinicity, amplified winter jet stream waves over the subpolar North Atlantic, and a strengthened summer tropospheric vortex over the central Arctic. The stratospheric vortex has also intensified the tropospheric waves and vortex with distinct dynamics between winter and summer. Recently enhanced baroclinicity over large areas of the Arctic and midlatitudes suggests more complicated atmospheric dynamics than what is hypothesized with Arctic-amplification-induced decrease in meridional temperature gradients.

Atmospheric dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Back-to-back high category atmospheric river landfalls occur more often on the west coast of the United States

Abstract The catastrophic December 2022-January 2023 nine atmospheric rivers in California underscore the urgent need to better understand such high-risk weather extremes. Here we applied a machine learning clustering tool to understand the activity of atmospheric river clusters. Reanalysis results show that clusters with high density, that is the time fraction under atmospheric river conditions within a cluster, exhibit more frequent high-category atmospheric rivers, alongside an increased likelihood for extreme precipitation and severe land surface responses. The key circulation patterns of atmospheric river clusters are primarily attributed to subseasonal variability. Furthermore, the occurrence and density of atmospheric river clusters are modulated by the daily variability of the geopotential height field. Climate model projections suggest that atmospheric river clusters with higher density and higher categories will be more frequent as warming level increases. Our findings emphasize the important role of atmospheric river clusters in the development of climate adaptation and resilience strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Changes in sea ice concentration explain half of the winter warming of the Arctic surface

Arctic winter warming is stronger than in summer, but its driving mechanisms remain debated, particularly the roles of local processes, like sea-ice loss, versus remote factors, like atmospheric heat transport. Here we introduce a novel decomposition framework that characterizes Arctic warming as a function of historical atmospheric circulation, sea ice concentration, and carbon dioxide changes using observational and reanalysis data. We show that sea ice changes explain about 55% of the winter Arctic near-surface temperature trend during 1959–2015, after removing the effects directly connected to atmospheric circulation. Dynamically induced warming accounts for about 20% at surface and up to 80% in mid-troposphere. The remaining ~25% is attributed to the increase in carbon dioxide, though it also indirectly affects sea-ice loss and circulation-related warming. These findings highlight the dominant role of sea ice loss and change in atmospheric dynamics in affecting the historical Arctic winter warming.

Arctic Sea Ice change↗
DOE OSTI2025

Water sources and land capacitor effects stimulate observed summer Arctic moistening and warming

The primary sources of recent summer Arctic moistening trends in reanalysis are uncertain, hindering attribution of observed Arctic warming due to radiative effects from water vapor changes. Here, we use a combined online numerical water tracer and circulation nudging approach in the Community Earth System Model to track the sources of water vapor beyond its initial sources. Trends in boreal summer large-scale circulation have driven moistening of the Arctic over recent decades, having a large impact on the Arctic radiative budget, accounting for 94% of the strengthening water vapor radiative feedback. We identify two key regions supplying the Arctic water vapor feedback: Northeast North America and western/central Eurasia. In both regions, anticyclonic circulations over the southwest Atlantic and eastern Europe move moisture from the tropical oceans poleward to high latitude land through precipitation in winter and spring. During summer, evapotranspiration over land releases this water vapor, and it is transported by winds into the Arctic. We refer to this sequence of terrestrial moisture storage and release as the land capacitor effect. Thus, the impacts of circulation changes on poleward moisture transport and land-atmosphere interactions over high latitudes represent the underlying mechanisms of the recent moistening and warming in the Arctic.

Arctic amplification↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Experimental and Theoretical Study of the High Temperature Reactions of the Four Butyl Radical Isomers

The high temperature gas phase chemistry of the four butyl radical isomers (n-butyl,sec-butyl, iso-butyl, andtert-butyl) was investigated in a combined experimental and theoretical study. Organic nitrites were used as convenient and clean sources of each of the butyl radical isomers. Rate coefficients for dissociation of each nitrite were obtained experimentally and are at, or close to, the high pressure limit. Low pressure experiments were performed in a diaphragmless shock tube with laser schlieren densitometry at post-shock pressures of 65, 130, and 260 Torr and post-shock temperatures of 700-1000 K. Additional experiments were conducted with iso-butyl radicals at 805 K and 8.7 bar to elucidate changes in mechanism at higher pressures. These experiments were performed in a miniature shock tube with synchrotron-based photoionization mass spectrometry. The mass spectra confirmed that scission of the O-NO bond is the primary channel by which the precursors dissociate, but they also provided evidence of a minor channel (<7.7%) through HNO loss and formation of an aldehyde. These high pressure experiments were also used to determine the disproportionation/recombination ratio for iso-butyl radicals as 0.3. Reanalysis of the lower-temperature literature and the present data yielded rate constants for the disproportionation reaction, iso-butyl + iso-butyl = iso-butene + iso-butane. A chemical kinetics model was developed for the reactions of the butyl isomers that included new paths for highly energized adducts. These adducts are formed by the addition of H, CH 3 or C 2 H 5 to the butyl radicals. Accompanying theoretical investigations show that chemically activated pathways are competitive with stabilization of the adduct by collision under the conditions of the laser schlieren experiments. These calculations also show that at 10 bar and T< 1000 K stabilization is the only important reaction, but at higher temperatures, even at 10 bar, chemically activated product channels should also be considered. Branching fractions and rate coefficients are presented for these reactions. Furthermore, this study also highlights the importance of the radical structure for determining branching ratios for disproportionation and recombination of alkyl radicals, and these were facilitated by theoretical calculations of recombination rate coefficients for the four butyl radical isomers. Overall, the results reveal previously unknown features of butyl radical chemistry under conditions that are relevant to a wide range of applications and reaction mechanisms are presented that incorporate pressure dependent rate coefficients for the key steps.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A conformational equilibrium in the nitrogenase MoFe protein with an α-V70I amino acid substitution illuminates the mechanism of H 2 formation

Study of α-V70I-substituted nitrogenase MoFe protein identified Fe6 of FeMo-cofactor (Fe 7 S 9 MoC-homocitrate) as a critical N 2 binding/reduction site. Freeze-trapping this enzyme during Ar turnover captured the key catalytic intermediate in high occupancy, denoted E 4 (4H), which has accumulated 4[e — /H + ] as two bridging hydrides, Fe2–H–Fe6 and Fe3–H–Fe7, and protons bound to two sulfurs. E 4 (4H) is poised to bind/reduce N 2 as driven by mechanistically-coupled H 2 reductive-elimination of the hydrides. This process must compete with ongoing hydride protonation (HP), which releases H 2 as the enzyme relaxes to state E 2 (2H), containing 2[e — /H + ] as a hydride and sulfur-bound proton; accumulation of E 4 (4H) in α-V70I is enhanced by HP suppression. EPR and 95 Mo ENDOR spectroscopies now show that resting-state α-V70I enzyme exists in two conformational states, both in solution and as crystallized, one with wild type (WT)-like FeMo-co and one with perturbed FeMo-co. These reflect two conformations of the Ile residue, as visualized in a reanalysis of the X-ray diffraction data of α-V70I and confirmed by computations. EPR measurements show delivery of 2[e — /H + ] to the E 0 state of the WT MoFe protein and to both α-V70I conformations generating E 2 (2H) that contains the Fe3–H–Fe7 bridging hydride; accumulation of another 2[e — /H + ] generates E 4 (4H) with Fe2–H–Fe6 as the second hydride. E 4 (4H) in WT enzyme and a minority α-V70I E 4 (4H) conformation as visualized by QM/MM computations relax to resting-state through two HP steps that reverse the formation process: HP of Fe2–H–Fe6 followed by slower HP of Fe3–H–Fe7, which leads to transient accumulation of E 2 (2H) containing Fe3–H–Fe7. In the dominant α-V70I E 4 (4H) conformation, HP of Fe2–H–Fe6 is passively suppressed by the positioning of the Ile sidechain; slow HP of Fe3–H–Fe7 occurs first and the resulting E 2 (2H) contains Fe2–H–Fe6. Importantly, it is this HP suppression in E 4 (4H) that enables α-V70I MoFe to accumulate E 4 (4H) in high occupancy. In addition, HP suppression in α-V70I E 4 (4H) kinetically unmasks hydride reductive-elimination without N 2 -binding, a process that is precluded in WT enzyme.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

TDCOSMO. I. An exploration of systematic uncertainties in the inference of $H_0$ from time-delay cosmography

Time-delay cosmography of lensed quasars has achieved 2.4% precision on the measurement of the Hubble constant, H0. As part of an ongoing effort to uncover and control systematic uncertainties, we investigate three potential sources: 1- stellar kinematics, 2- line-of-sight effects, and 3- the deflector mass model. To meet this goal in a quantitative way, we reproduced the H0LiCOW/SHARP/STRIDES (hereafter TDCOSMO) procedures on a set of real and simulated data, and we find the following. First, stellar kinematics cannot be a dominant source of error or bias since we find that a systematic change of 10% of measured velocity dispersion leads to only a 0.7% shift on H0 from the seven lenses analyzed by TDCOSMO. Second, we find no bias to arise from incorrect estimation of the line-of-sight effects. Third, we show that elliptical composite (stars + dark matter halo), power-law, and cored power-law mass profiles have the flexibility to yield a broad range in H0 values. However, the TDCOSMO procedures that model the data with both composite and power-law mass profiles are informative. If the models agree, as we observe in real systems owing to the “bulge-halo” conspiracy, H0 is recovered precisely and accurately by both models. If the two models disagree, as in the case of some pathological models illustrated here, the TDCOSMO procedure either discriminates between them through the goodness of fit, or it accounts for the discrepancy in the final error bars provided by the analysis. This conclusion is consistent with a reanalysis of six of the TDCOSMO (real) lenses: the composite model yields H0 = 74.0−1.8+1.7 km s−1 Mpc−1, while the power-law model yields 74.2−1.6+1.6 km s−1 Mpc−1. In conclusion, we find no evidence of bias or errors larger than the current statistical uncertainties reported by TDCOSMO.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The chemical composition of globular clusters in the Local Group

We present detailed chemical abundance measurements for 45 globular clusters (GCs) associated with galaxies in (and, in one case, beyond) the Local Group. The measurements are based on new high-resolution integrated-light spectra of GCs in the galaxies NGC 185, NGC 205, M 31, M 33, and NGC 2403, combined with reanalysis of previously published observations of GCs in the Fornax dSph, WLM, NGC 147, NGC 6822, and the Milky Way. The GCs cover the range -2.8 < [Fe/H] < -0.1 and we determined abundances for Fe, Na, Mg, Si, Ca, Sc, Ti, Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, Zr, Ba, and Eu. Corrections for non local thermodynamic equilibrium effects are included for Na, Mg, Ca, Ti, Mn, Fe, Ni, and Ba, building on a recently developed procedure. For several of the galaxies, our measurements provide the first quantitative constraints on the detailed composition of their metal-poor stellar populations. Overall, the GCs in different galaxies exhibit remarkably uniform abundance patterns of the α, iron-peak, and neutron-capture elements, with a dispersion of less than 0.1 dex in [α/Fe] for the full sample. There is a hint that GCs in dwarf galaxies are slightly less α-enhanced (by ~0.04 dex on average) than those in larger galaxies. One GC in M 33 (HM33-B) resembles the most metal-rich GCs in the Fornax dSph (Fornax 4) and NGC 6822 (SC7) by having α-element abundances closer to scaled-solar values, possibly hinting at an accretion origin. A principal components analysis shows that the α-element abundances strongly correlate with those of Na, Sc, Ni, and Zn. Several GCs with [Fe/H] < -1.5 are deficient in Mg compared to other α-elements. We find no GCs with strongly enhanced r-process abundances as reported for metal-poor stars in some ultra-faint dwarfs and the Magellanic Clouds. The similarity of the abundance patterns for metal-poor GCs in different environments points to similar early enrichment histories and only allow for minor variations in the initial mass function.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reshock analysis for PMMA driven above the threshold for chemical decomposition

Polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) is a transparent thermoplastic often used in shock compression science. Previous proceedings (AIP Conf. Proc. 845, 131 (2006)) described plate impact experiments in which PMMA was reshocked to pressures of up to ~130 GPa, well above that at which it decomposes on its principal Hugoniot. Because some of the conclusions of the original analysis were surprising, the results were reanalyzed in a later proceeding (ibid. 1426, 771 (2012)). In addition to our own reanalysis of the data, we performed hydrodynamic simulations of the experiments based on a new equation of state for PMMA shocked above its threshold for decomposition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A novel data gaps filling method for solar PV output forecasting

This study proposes a modified gaps filling method, expanding the column mean imputation method and evaluated using randomly generated missing values comprising 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20% of the original data on power output. The XGBoost algorithm was implemented as a forecasting model using the original and processed datasets and two sources of solar radiation data, namely, Shortwave Radiation (SWR) from Advanced Himawari Imager 8 (AHI-8) and Surface Solar Radiation Downward (SSRD) from ERA5 global reanalysis data. Further, the accuracy of the two sets of forecasted power output was evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Results show that by applying the proposed gap filling method and using SWR in forecasting solar photovoltaic (PV) output, the improvement in the RMSE and MAE values range from 12.52% to 24.30% and from 21.10% to 31.31%, respectively. Meanwhile, using SSRD, the improvement in the RMSE values range from 14.01% to 28.54% and MAE values from 22.39% to 35.53%. To further evaluate the accuracy of the proposed gap-filling method, the proposed method could be validated using different datasets and other forecasting methods. Future studies could also consider applying the said method to datasets with data gaps higher than 20%.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-resolution climate model datasets for energy infrastructure planning in a renewable-dependent future

Electrification and renewables deployment efforts are amplifying the interdependence of the climate and energy systems. Increases in climate model resolution, which is now approaching that of reanalysis datasets and operational weather forecast models, present a unique opportunity to use future climate projections for energy infrastructure planning. In this Perspective, we review recent developments in high-resolution climate modeling, which have been driven by increased computing power and advanced software tools. We then look ahead to discuss how high-resolution climate data can be used to plan for a renewable-dependent future, and envision a unified climate-energy model framework that captures the two-way feedbacks between these interdependent systems.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enriched East Asian oxygen isotope of precipitation indicates reduced summer seasonality in regional climate and westerlies

Speleothem oxygen isotope records over East Asia reveal apparently large and rapid paleoclimate changes over the last several hundred thousand years. However, what the isotopic variation actually represent in terms of the regional climate and circulation is debated. We present an answer that emerges from an analysis of the interannual variation in amount-weighted annual δ 18 O of precipitation over East Asia as simulated by an isotope-enabled model constrained by large-scale atmospheric reanalysis fields. 18 O-enriched years have reduced summer seasonality both in terms of precipitation isotopes and in the large-scale circulation. Changes occur between June and October, where the δ 18 O of precipitation (δ 18 O p ) transitions from the isotopically heavier winter to the lighter summer regime. For 18 O-enriched years, this transition is less pronounced. Variations in precipitation amount alone are insufficient to explain the amount-weighted annual δ 18 O p between 18 O-enriched and 18 O-depleted years. Reduced summer seasonality is also expressed in the low-level monsoonal southerlies and upper-level westerlies; for the latter, the northward migration across the Tibetan Plateau in the summer is less pronounced. Our result thus implicates the westerlies across the plateau as the proximate cause of East Asian paleomonsoon changes, manifested as a modulation of its summer peak.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nonstationarity in the global terrestrial water cycle and its interlinkages in the Anthropocene

Climate change and human activities alter the global freshwater cycle, causing nonstationary processes as its distribution shifting over time, yet a comprehensive understanding of these changes remains elusive. Here, we develop a remote sensing–informed terrestrial reanalysis and assess the nonstationarity of and interconnections among global water cycle components from 2003 to 2020. We highlight 20 hotspot regions where terrestrial water storage exhibits strong nonstationarity, impacting 35% of the global population and 45% of the area covered by irrigated agriculture. Emerging long-term trends dominate the most often (48.2%), followed by seasonal shifts (32.8%) and changes in extremes (19%). Notably, in mid-latitudes, this encompasses 34% of Asia and 27% of North America. The patterns of nonstationarity and their dominant types differ across other water cycle components, including precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and gross primary production. These differences also manifest uniquely across hotspot regions, illustrating the intricate ways in which each component responds to climate change and human water management. Our findings emphasize the importance of considering nonstationarity when assessing water cycle information toward the development of strategies for sustainable water resource usage, enhancing resilience to extreme events, and effectively addressing other challenges associated with climate change.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Updated parameters of the LArQL model

The need for a microscopic description of scintillation light generation in liquid argon becomes increasingly desirable with the upcoming operation of large scale LArTPCs in the next decade. While a detailed mathematical account of the process is still to be achieved, a phenomenological model for simultaneously treating ionization and scintillation, LArQL, has been successfully employed to describe the range of electric fields from 0 to 0.75 kV/cm and dE/dx from 2 to 40 MeV/cm providing the anti-correlation between the free ionization charge and scintillation light. A reanalysis of the original model parameter values has been performed within a global fit procedure and is presented.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of urbanization, antecedent rainfall event, and cyclone tracks on extreme floods at Houston reservoirs during Hurricane Harvey

The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of urbanization, antecedent rainfall event (ARE), and varying cyclone tracks on the streamflow—and thus the subsequent reservoir status—during the floods caused by Hurricane Harvey in August-September 2017. Through a hydrological modeling approach, we examined how these factors influenced the inflows, peak pool elevations and outflows of the two most important detention reservoirs in the Houston region, the Addicks and Barker Reservoirs. A high-resolution rainfall reanalysis dataset for extreme storm events, along with a suite of synthetic rainfall values from a variety of storm tracks, were adopted to represent both the truth and the maximum possible rainfall during the Hurricane Harvey period. Results showed the following: Urbanization only led to slight increases in peak inflows, not necessarily leading to an increase in peak pool elevations. ARE contributed to the peak inflow and pool elevation slightly. In contrast, if the cyclone had followed the most adverse track consistent with earlier forecasts (all else being equal), the total volumetric flow into the two reservoirs could have been significantly larger (37.00% and 48.70% respectively), thus increasing the peak pool elevations by 1.06 and 1.37 meters respectively. These results suggest that large uncertainties exist for flood management at a watershed scale during hurricanes, because of the uncertainties with regard to the cyclone track. This is true even if storm-relative precipitation rates could be predicted perfectly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global mean frequency increases of daily and sub-daily heavy precipitation in ERA5

Abstract Changes in heavy precipitation frequency can be viewed as a change in the event return period, a common metric of risk. Compared with intensity, frequency changes are less well-studied and past work has largely been constrained to analysis of well-instrumented regions. We exploit the latest ERA5 reanalysis and its global hourly accumulations at 1/4° spatial resolution and apply a metric that captures frequency changes across both wet and dry regions. According to ERA5 and in a global average sense, during 1989–2018, hourly events that occurred once per year in 1979–1988 increased in frequency by 71 (53–93, 95% range) %, while the one day per year heavy event frequency increased by 44 (37–54) %. Thus, hourly events that occurred once per year in the baseline decade are on track to double in frequency by 2021–2030, and the daily events by 2047–2056. Furthermore, our results replicate prior findings that relative frequency increases are larger for increasingly rare events, and for the first time we quantify that mean frequency increases have been greater over ocean than land. Ocean increases are larger by factors of 3.0 and 2.1 for the hourly and daily events that occurred once per year in 1979–1988, respectively.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2022

ENSO modulation of summertime tropospheric ozone over China

Ozone (O 3 ) is one of the most critical pollutants affecting air quality in China in recent years. In this study, different impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm/cold phases on summertime tropospheric O 3 over China are examined based on model simulations, ground measurements, and reanalysis data. Summertime surface O 3 concentrations in China show a positive correlation with ENSO index during years 1990–2019, with the largest increases by 20% over southern China in El Niño (warm phase) relative to La Niña (cold phase) years. The ENSO modulation extends to the middle and even upper troposphere. Our analysis indicates that O 3 flux convergence associated with weakened southerlies is the primary reason for the increase in tropospheric O 3 over southern China. In addition, the O 3 increase during El Niño years is mainly from domestic emissions in China. This study highlights the potential significance of ENSO in modulating tropospheric O 3 concentrations in China, with great implications for O 3 pollution mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗