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At least 343 records · Page 19

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Non-NASA Center↗

Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

Experiences in using modal synthesis within project requirements

Modal synthesis methods were developed for use by engineers for cost-effective solutions of large structural dynamics problems. Different methods were proposed by various investigators based upon comparative solutions of relatively simple structures using different forms of displacement functions. The application of modal synthesis methods to a large complex structure in a project environment is described. The considerations include analysis, hardware interfaces, schedules, tests, resources, and other project requirements. Good technical results were obtained through the use of an integrated analysis/test modal synthesis on both substructures and systems.

Garba, J. A.↗

Applying Formal Methods and Object-Oriented Design to Existing Flight Software

This paper describes a project appling formal methods to a portion of the shuttle on-orbit digital autopilot (DAP). Three objectives of the project were to: demonstrate the use of formal methods on a shuttle application, facilitate the incorporation and validation of new requirements for the system, and verify the safety-critical properties to be exhibited by the software.

Software Failures↗

Analysis and evalaution in the production process and equipment area of the low-cost solar array project

The manufacturing methods for photovoltaic solar energy utilization are assessed. Economic and technical data on the current front junction formation processes of gaseous diffusion and ion implantation are presented. Future proposals, including modifying gaseous diffusion and using ion implantation, to decrease the cost of junction formation are studied. Technology developments in current processes and an economic evaluation of the processes are included.

Goldman, H.↗

Reconnaissance and recovery of the brighter asteroids. Brief summary of the entire project

An inexpensive method of baking large (8- by 10-inch) IIIa-J plates in 2 percent forming gas was found and successfully tested. The large storage capacity and fine grain structure of the emulsion made the sky fog negligible on plates of one-hour exposure at Link. Plates were taken through the end of October 18, 1981 on various asteroids from the recent critical lists published in the Minor Planet Circulars and the Russian Ephemeris of Minor Planets.

Edmonson, F. K.↗

Field Guide for Designing Human Interaction with Intelligent Systems

The characteristics of this Field Guide approach address the problems of designing innovative software to support user tasks. The requirements for novel software are difficult to specify a priori, because there is not sufficient understanding of how the users' tasks should be supported, and there are not obvious pre-existing design solutions. When the design team is in unfamiliar territory, care must be taken to avoid rushing into detailed design, requirements specification, or implementation of the wrong product. The challenge is to get the right design and requirements in an efficient, cost-effective manner. This document's purpose is to describe the methods we are using to design human interactions with intelligent systems which support Space Shuttle flight controllers in the Mission Control Center at NASA/Johnson Space Center. Although these software systems usually have some intelligent features, the design challenges arise primarily from the innovation needed in the software design. While these methods are tailored to our specific context, they should be extensible, and helpful to designers of human interaction with other types of automated systems. We review the unique features of this context so that you can determine how to apply these methods to your project Throughout this Field Guide, goals of the design methods are discussed. This should help designers understand how a specific method might need to be adapted to the project at hand.

Malin, Jane T.↗

Parallel 3D Mortar Element Method for Adaptive Nonconforming Meshes

High order methods are frequently used in computational simulation for their high accuracy. An efficient way to avoid unnecessary computation in smooth regions of the solution is to use adaptive meshes which employ fine grids only in areas where they are needed. Nonconforming spectral elements allow the grid to be flexibly adjusted to satisfy the computational accuracy requirements. The method is suitable for computational simulations of unsteady problems with very disparate length scales or unsteady moving features, such as heat transfer, fluid dynamics or flame combustion. In this work, we select the Mark Element Method (MEM) to handle the non-conforming interfaces between elements. A new technique is introduced to efficiently implement MEM in 3-D nonconforming meshes. By introducing an "intermediate mortar", the proposed method decomposes the projection between 3-D elements and mortars into two steps. In each step, projection matrices derived in 2-D are used. The two-step method avoids explicitly forming/deriving large projection matrices for 3-D meshes, and also helps to simplify the implementation. This new technique can be used for both h- and p-type adaptation. This method is applied to an unsteady 3-D moving heat source problem. With our new MEM implementation, mesh adaptation is able to efficiently refine the grid near the heat source and coarsen the grid once the heat source passes. The savings in computational work resulting from the dynamic mesh adaptation is demonstrated by the reduction of the the number of elements used and CPU time spent. MEM and mesh adaptation, respectively, bring irregularity and dynamics to the computer memory access pattern. Hence, they provide a good way to gauge the performance of computer systems when running scientific applications whose memory access patterns are irregular and unpredictable. We select a 3-D moving heat source problem as the Unstructured Adaptive (UA) grid benchmark, a new component of the NAS Parallel Benchmarks (NPB). In this paper, we present some interesting performance results of ow OpenMP parallel implementation on different architectures such as the SGI Origin2000, SGI Altix, and Cray MTA-2.

Feng, Huiyu↗

Advanced Guidance and Control Project for Reusable Launch Vehicles

The goals of this project are to significantly reduce the time and cost associated with guidance and control design for reusable launch vehicles, and to increase their safety and reliability. Success will lead to reduced cycle times during vehicle design and to reduced costs associated with flying to new orbits, with new payloads, and with modified vehicles. Success will also lead to more robustness to unforeseen circumstances in flight thereby enhancing safety and reducing risk. There are many guidance and control methods available that hold some promise for improvement in the desired areas. Investigators are developing a representative set of independent guidance and control methods for this project. These methods are being incorporated into a high-fidelity off is being conducted across a broad range of flight requirements. The guidance and control methods that perform the best will have demonstrated the desired qualities.

Hanson, John M.↗

Error Cost Escalation Through the Project Life Cycle

It is well known that the costs to fix errors increase as the project matures, but how fast do those costs build? A study was performed to determine the relative cost of fixing errors discovered during various phases of a project life cycle. This study used three approaches to determine the relative costs: the bottom-up cost method, the total cost breakdown method, and the top-down hypothetical project method. The approaches and results described in this paper presume development of a hardware/software system having project characteristics similar to those used in the development of a large, complex spacecraft, a military aircraft, or a small communications satellite. The results show the degree to which costs escalate, as errors are discovered and fixed at later and later phases in the project life cycle. If the cost of fixing a requirements error discovered during the requirements phase is defined to be 1 unit, the cost to fix that error if found during the design phase increases to 3 - 8 units; at the manufacturing/build phase, the cost to fix the error is 7 - 16 units; at the integration and test phase, the cost to fix the error becomes 21 - 78 units; and at the operations phase, the cost to fix the requirements error ranged from 29 units to more than 1500 units

Stecklein, Jonette M.↗

Project Management Using Modern Guidance, Navigation and Control Theory

Implementing guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) theory principles and applying them to the human element of project management and control is not a new concept. As both the literature on the subject and the real-world applications are neither readily available nor comprehensive with regard to how such principles might be applied, this paper has been written to educate the project manager on the "laws of physics" of his or her project (not to teach a GN&C engineer how to become a project manager) and to provide an intuitive, mathematical explanation as to the control and behavior of projects. This paper will also address how the fundamental principles of modern GN&C were applied to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Constellation Program (CxP) space suit project, ensuring the project was managed within cost, schedule, and budget. A project that is akin to a physical system can be modeled and managed using the same over arching principles of GN&C that would be used if that project were a complex vehicle, a complex system(s), or complex software with time-varying processes (at times nonlinear) containing multiple data inputs of varying accuracy and a range of operating points. The classic GN&C theory approach could thus be applied to small, well-defined projects; yet when working with larger, multiyear projects necessitating multiple organizational structures, numerous external influences, and a multitude of diverse resources, modern GN&C principles are required to model and manage the project. The fundamental principles of a GN&C system incorporate these basic concepts: State, Behavior, Feedback Control, Navigation, Guidance and Planning Logic systems. The State of a system defines the aspects of the system that can change over time; e.g., position, velocity, acceleration, coordinate-based attitude, and temperature, etc. The Behavior of the system focuses more on what changes are possible within the system; this is denoted in the state of the system. The behavior of a system, as captured in the system modeling, when properly done will aid in accurately predicting future system performance. The Feedback Control system understands the state and behavior of the system and uses feedback to adjust control inputs into the system. The feedback, which is the right arm of the Control system, allows change to be affected in the overall system; it therefore is important to not only correctly identify the system feedback inputs, but also the system response to the feedback inputs. The Navigation system takes multiple data inputs and based on a priori knowledge of the inputs, develops a statistically based weighting of the inputs and measurements to determine the system's state. Guidance and Planning Logic of the system, complete with an understanding of where the system is (provided by the Navigation system), will in turn determine where the system needs to be and how to get it there. With any system/project, it is critical that the objective of the system/project be clearly defined -- not only to plan but to measure performance and to aid in guiding the system or the project. The system principles discussed above, which can be and have been applied to the current CxP space suit development project, can also be mapped to real-world constituents, thus allowing project managers to apply systems theories that are well defined in engineering and mathematics to a discipline (i.e., Project Management) that historically has been based in personal experience and intuition. This mapping of GN&C theory to Project Management will, in turn, permit a direct, methodical approach to Project Management, planning and control providing a tool to help predict (and guide) performance and an understanding of the project constraints, how the project can be controlled, and the impacts to external influences and inputs. This approach, to a project manager, flows down to the three bottom-line variables of cost, schedule, and scope ando the needed control of these three variables to successfully perform and complete a project.

Hill, Terry R.↗

Deep Learning Methods for Symbolic Calculations in HEP

This project develops machine learning methods to accelerate symbolic calculations in high-energy physics. Using sequence-to-sequence transformer models, we construct frameworks to predict squared amplitudes and related quantities for Standard Model processes, including quantum electrodynamics, quantum chromodynamics, and electroweak interactions. The results demonstrate that deep learning can successfully learn complex symbolic relationships and provide a scalable approach to symbolic computation with potential applications in precision calculations and collider phenomenology.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

How Configuration Management Helps Projects Innovate and Communicate

This slide presentation reviews the concept of Configuration Management (CM) and compares it to the standard view of Project management (PM). It presents two PM models: (1) Kepner-Tregoe,, and the Deming models, describes why projects fail, and presents methods of how CM helps projects innovate and communicate.

Cioletti, Louis A.↗

Presentation: Sensor Anomaly Detection for Nuclear Reactor Systems Utilizing Linear Regression and K-Means Unsupervised Machine Learning: An overview of methods and results

This presentation is a culmination of work which has occurred over the course of a 10-week internship. Anomaly detection methods must be both robust enough to detect subtle anomalies yet not so sensitive to report false positives, which would result significant loss of revenue. Methods currently being developed for autonomous systems are often pursuing a Digital Twin method, which will look at the entire system and model it as a whole. This presentation, however, focuses less on direct application to an NPP, rather acting as a proof of concept for the methods developed. For the project, we look to develop methods to analyze steady-state data and report anomalies.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Two-Stage Reduction Of Dynamical Models

No longer necessary to solve eigenvalue problems of high order. Component-mode projection-and-assembly model-reduction (COMPARE) method provides approximation of dynamics of vibrations of complicated, multiple flexible bodies by use of mathematical models of reduced order. Incorporates component-mode synthesis (CMS) method and enhanced projection-and-assembly (EP&A) method, described in "Enhanced Method of Reduction of Dynamical Models" (NPO-18402), providing for somewhat simplified two-stage process in which order of applicable mathematical models reduced. Reduced-order models used to design algorithms of control systems to suppress vibrations or otherwise control structure.

Lee, Allan Y.↗

Automated Progress Monitoring in Modular Construction Factories Using Computer Vision and Building Information Modeling

Modular construction methods have recently gained interest due to the advantages offered in terms of safety, quality, and productivity for projects. In this method, a significant portion of the construction is performed off-site in factories where modular components are built in different workstations, assembled on the production line, and shipped to the site for installation. Due to the labor-intensive nature of tasks, cycle times in modular construction factories are highly variable, which commonly leads to major bottlenecks and delays in construction projects. To remedy this effect, recent methods rely on sensors such as RFID to monitor the production process, which is reportedly expensive, and intrusive to the work process. Recently, computer vision-based methods have been proposed to track the production process in modular construction factories. However, these methods overlook monitoring the assembly process on the production line. Therefore, this paper presents a method to monitor the assembly process by integrating computer vision-based methods with Building Information Modeling (BIM). The proposed method detects the modular units using object segmentation; superimposes the installation area with the corresponding 2D region using BIM, and identifies the installation of the components using image processing techniques. The proposed method has been validated using surveillance videos captured from a modular construction factory in the US. Successful implementation of the proposed method can lead to timely identification of delays during the assembly process and reduce delays in modular integrated construction projects.

building information modeling↗