Results for “probability risk analysis” — Page 19

NASA NTRS2015

An Integrated 0-1 Hour First-Flash Lightning Nowcasting, Lightning Amount and Lightning Jump Warning Capability

Lightning one of the most dangerous weather-related phenomena, especially as many jobs and activities occur outdoors, presenting risk from a lightning strike. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning represents a considerable safety threat to people at airfields, marinas, and outdoor facilities-from airfield personnel, to people attending outdoor stadium events, on beaches and golf courses, to mariners, as well as emergency personnel. Holle et al. (2005) show that 90% of lightning deaths occurred outdoors, while 10% occurred indoors despite the perception of safety when inside buildings. Curran et al. (2000) found that nearly half of fatalities due to weather were related to convective weather in the 1992-1994 timeframe, with lightning causing a large component of the fatalities, in addition to tornadoes and flash flooding. Related to the aviation industry, CG lightning represents a considerable hazard to baggage-handlers, aircraft refuelers, food caterers, and emergency personnel, who all become exposed to the risk of being struck within short time periods while convective storm clouds develop. Airport safety protocols require that ramp operations be modified or discontinued when lightning is in the vicinity (typically 16 km), which becomes very costly and disruptive to flight operations. Therefore, much focus has been paid to nowcasting the first-time initiation and extent of lightning, both of CG and of any lightning (e.g, in-cloud, cloud-to-cloud). For this project three lightning nowcasting methodologies will be combined: (1) a GOESbased 0-1 hour lightning initiation (LI) product (Harris et al. 2010; Iskenderian et al. 2012), (2) a High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) lightning probability and forecasted lightning flash density product, such that a quantitative amount of lightning (QL) can be assigned to a location of expected LI, and (3) an algorithm that relates Pseudo-GLM data (Stano et al. 2012, 2014) to the so-called "lightning jump" (LJ) methodology (Shultz et al. 2011) to monitor lightning trends and to anticipate/forecast severe weather (hail > or =2.5 cm, winds > or =25 m/s, tornadoes). The result will be a time-continuous algorithm that uses GOES satellite, radar fields, and HRRR model fields to nowcast first-flash LI and QL, and subsequently monitors lightning trends on a perstorm basis within the LJ algorithm for possible severe weather occurrence out to > or =3 hours. The LI-QL-LJ product will also help prepare the operational forecast community for Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data expected in late 2015, as these data are monitored for ongoing convective storms. The LI-QL-LJ product will first predict where new lightning is highly probable using GOES imagery of developing cumulus clouds, followed by n analysis of NWS (dual-polarization) radar indicators (reflectivity at the -10 C altitude) of lightning occurrence, to increase confidence that LI is immanent. Once lightning is observed, time-continuous lightning mapping array and Pseudo-GLM observations will be analyzed to assess trends and the severe weather threat as identified by trends in lightning (i.e. LJs). Additionally, 5- and 15-min GOES imagery will then be evaluated on a per-storm basis for overshooting and other cloud-top features known to be associated with severe storms. For the processing framework, the GOES-R 0-1 hour convective initiation algorithm's output will be developed within the Warning Decision Support System - Integrated Information (WDSS-II) tracking tool, and merged with radar and lightning (LMA/Psuedo-GLM) datasets for active storms. The initial focus of system development will be over North Alabama for select lightning-active days in summer 2014, yet will be formed in an expandable manner. The lightning alert tool will also be developed in concert with National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters to meet their needs for real-time, accurate first-flash LI and timing, as well as anticipated lightning trends, amounts, continuation and cessation, so to provide key situational awareness and decision support information. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center will provide important logistical and collaborative support and training, involving interactions with the NWS and broader user community.

Mecikalski, John↗

NASA NTRS2019

Analyses and Methods of Solid Rocket Motor Material Irradiation at Marshall Space Flight Center

The search for life on other worlds is among humanity’s greatest endeavors. Europa represents the most probable location to discover extraterrestrial life in our solar system, owing to its surface composition of ice covering a liquid water ocean, warmed by the tidal forces of its orbit around Jupiter. Unfortunately, the Jovian system hosts the most intense planetary radiation environment in the solar system due to the charged particles, namely electrons and protons, trapped by Jupiter’s immense magnetic field. Any mission that attempts to approach or land on Europa must survive this radiation environment [Hand et al, 2017]. Radiation effects were identified as a priority risk to the successful development of a de-orbit stage and solid rocket motor (SRM) early in the Europa Lander De-orbit Stage project concept. The effects of primary concern tend to occur very near the outer surface of the SRM. The charged particles deposit their energy quickly and are mostly stopped in the outer metallic case, but a significant portion of radiation penetrates through the bondline and outer propellant regions. High doses of ionizing radiation are known to cause significant changes to mechanical properties of many materials, especially polymers. For polymers such as the rubber-like materials (elastomers) in a solid rocket motor, the primary damage mechanism is known as cross-linking, in which ionization causes the restructuring of the matrix of long polymer chains. Ionization energy breaks the long polymer chains and allows formation of new cross-linked bonding sites. This hardens and often strengthens the polymer, but at the cost of decreased flexibility (or modulus). Propellant, insulation, liner, and pyrotechnic materials were identified as higher risk items, and so were irradiated at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for investigation of changes in mechanical and ballistic properties. This process required significant levels of analysis to evaluate how the radiation environment evolves within the spacecraft during the mission, and also to evaluate how dose is delivered into test articles within the irradiating facilities.

Caffrey, Jarvis↗

NASA NTRS2019

Analyses and Methods of Solid Rocket Motor Material Irradiation at Marshall Space Flight Center

The search for life on other worlds is among humanity’s greatest endeavors. Europa represents the most probable location to discover extraterrestrial life in our solar system, owing to its surface composition of ice covering a liquid water ocean, warmed by the tidal forces of its orbit around Jupiter. Unfortunately, the Jovian system hosts the most intense planetary radiation environment in the solar system due to the charged particles, namely electrons and protons, trapped by Jupiter’s immense magnetic field. Any mission that attempts to approach or land on Europa must survive this radiation environment [Hand et al, 2017]. Radiation effects were identified as a priority risk to the successful development of a de-orbit stage and solid rocket motor (SRM) early in the Europa Lander De-orbit Stage project concept. The effects of primary concern tend to occur very near the outer surface of the SRM. The charged particles deposit their energy quickly and are mostly stopped in the outer metallic case, but a significant portion of radiation penetrates through the bondline and outer propellant regions. High doses of ionizing radiation are known to cause significant changes to mechanical properties of many materials, especially polymers. For polymers such as the rubber-like materials (elastomers) in a solid rocket motor, the primary damage mechanism is known as cross-linking, in which ionization causes the restructuring of the matrix of long polymer chains. Ionization energy breaks the long polymer chains and allows formation of new cross-linked bonding sites. This hardens and often strengthens the polymer, but at the cost of decreased flexibility (or modulus). Propellant, insulation, liner, and pyrotechnic materials were identified as higher risk items, and so were irradiated at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for investigation of changes in mechanical and ballistic properties. This process required significant levels of analysis to evaluate how the radiation environment evolves within the spacecraft during the mission, and also to evaluate how dose is delivered into test articles within the irradiating facilities.

Caffrey, Jarvis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Preliminary Medical Risk Estimates and Clinical Capability Needs for Artemis IV

BACKGROUND Human exploration spaceflight missions to the Moon and Mars present unprecedented challenges for in- mission medical care. Compared with the ISS, the greater distance from Earth will mean increased mission durations, communication delays, limited to no resupply opportunities, and significant limitations on the evacuation of ill or injured crew. Spacecraft mass, volume, and power will be curtailed while higher demands will be placed on the crew’s knowledge, skills, and abilities. In this higher risk environment, it is important to: a) quantitatively estimate human system risk attributable to medical conditions, a process known as Probabilistic Risk Analysis, and b) use these estimates to inform medical system design. IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a PRA and medical trade space analysis tool developed by NASA to advance exploration mission medical system design. IMPACT v1.0 improves upon and will soon replace NASA’s existing tool, the Integrated Medical Model, with: a novel evidence base baselined to exploration environments; an expanded list of 119 medical conditions; a significant increase in the number of medical resources that can be utilized and in the flexibility of their use; and the modelling of time lost performing mission-specific tasks due to medical conditions. METHODOLOGY: This abstract will present IMPACT estimates of medical system risk and clinical capability needs for the Artemis IV mission. Artemis IV is currently scheduled for 2026 and will visit the Gateway space station in lunar orbit prior to the second lunar landing of the Artemis program. The baseline Artemis IV mission that was modeled was 28 days in duration with phases including Orion outbound, 4 days on the Gateway space station in lunar orbit, 2 crew on the surface of the Moon for approximately one week, an additional 5 days on Gateway, and then return to Earth. This baseline was compared to two alternative 34-day design reference missions (DRMs) that shifted the lunar sortie earlier or later in the mission profile. Assumptions included 2 female and 2 male crew and a notional medical system mass of 25 kg. Medical system risk estimates include loss of crew life (LOCL), consideration of medical evacuation (known as return to definitive care – RTDC), and an estimate of crew time lost due to medical conditions (Task Time Lost – TTL). The presentation will also describe the medical conditions that are the greatest drivers of risk as well as the clinical capabilities and resources that have the largest effect on risk. RESULTS: All three DRMs had very low probability of LOCL from medical conditions, primarily due to short duration. RTDC was also similar across the DRMs. In contrast, TTL was higher in the early lunar sortie DRM due to earlier occurrence of EVA-related medical conditions. Taken as a whole, there was no clinically significant difference in medical risk across the three missions. Results for clinical capabilities and an example medical equipment list will be discussed but were similar across DRMs.

D Hilmers↗

NASA NTRS2024

Preliminary Medical Risk Estimates and Clinical Capability Needs for Late Artemis Missions

BACKGROUND Human exploration spaceflight missions to the Moon and Mars present unprecedented challenges for in- mission medical care. Compared with the ISS, the greater distance from Earth will mean increased mission durations, communication delays, limited to no resupply opportunities, and significant limitations on the evacuation of ill or injured crew. Spacecraft mass, volume, and power will be curtailed while higher demands will be placed on the crew’s knowledge, skills, and abilities. In this higher risk environment, it is important to: a) quantitatively estimate human system risk attributable to medical conditions, a process known as Probabilistic Risk Analysis, and b) use these estimates to inform medical system design. IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a PRA and medical trade space analysis tool developed by NASA to advance exploration mission medical system design. IMPACT v1.0 improves upon and will soon replace NASA’s existing tool, the Integrated Medical Model, with: a novel evidence base baselined to exploration environments; an expanded list of 119 medical conditions; a significant increase in the number of medical resources that can be utilized and in the flexibility of their use; and the modelling of time lost performing mission-specific tasks due to medical conditions. METHODOLOGY: This abstract will present IMPACT estimates of medical system risk and clinical capability needs for the Artemis IV mission. Artemis IV is currently scheduled for 2026 and will visit the Gateway space station in lunar orbit prior to the second lunar landing of the Artemis program. The baseline Artemis IV mission that was modeled was 28 days in duration with phases including Orion outbound, 4 days on the Gateway space station in lunar orbit, 2 crew on the surface of the Moon for approximately one week, an additional 5 days on Gateway, and then return to Earth. This baseline was compared to two alternative 34-day design reference missions (DRMs) that shifted the lunar sortie earlier or later in the mission profile. Assumptions included 2 female and 2 male crew and a notional medical system mass of 25 kg. Medical system risk estimates include loss of crew life (LOCL), consideration of medical evacuation (known as return to definitive care – RTDC), and an estimate of crew time lost due to medical conditions (Task Time Lost – TTL). The presentation will also describe the medical conditions that are the greatest drivers of risk as well as the clinical capabilities and resources that have the largest effect on risk. RESULTS: All three DRMs had very low probability of LOCL from medical conditions, primarily due to short duration. RTDC was also similar across the DRMs. In contrast, TTL was higher in the early lunar sortie DRM due to earlier occurrence of EVA-related medical conditions. Taken as a whole, there was no clinically significant difference in medical risk across the three missions. Results for clinical capabilities and an example medical equipment list will be discussed but were similar across DRMs.

D. Hilmers↗

NASA NTRS2017

NIAC Phase 1 Final Study Report on Titan Aerial Daughtercraft

Saturns giant moon Titan has become one of the most fascinating bodies in the Solar System. Even though it is a billion miles from Earth, data from the Cassini mission reveals that Titan has a very diverse, Earth-like surface, with mountains, fluvial channels, lakes, evaporite basins, plains, dunes, and seas [Lopes 2010] (Figure 1). But unlike Earth, Titans surface likely is composed of organic chemistry products derived from complex atmospheric photochemistry [Lorenz 2008]. In addition, Titan has an active meteorological system with observed storms and precipitation-induced surface darkening suggesting a hydrocarbon cycle analogous to Earths water cycle [Turtle 2011].Titan is the richest laboratory in the solar system for studying prebiotic chemistry, which makes studying its chemistry from the surface and in the atmosphere one of the most important objectives in planetary science [Decadal 2011]. The diversity of surface features on Titan related to organic solids and liquids makes long-range mobility with surface access important [Decadal 2011]. This has not been possible to date, because mission concepts have had either no mobility (landers), no surface access (balloons and airplanes), or low maturity, high risk, and/or high development costs for this environment (e,g. large, self-sufficient, long-duration helicopters). Enabling in situ mobility could revolutionize Titan exploration, similarly to the way rovers revolutionized Mars exploration. Recent progress on several fronts has suggested that small-scale rotorcraft deployed as daughtercraft from a lander or balloon mothercraft may be an effective, affordable approach to expanding Titan surface access. This includes rapid progress on autonomous navigation capabilities of such aircraft for terrestrial applications and on miniaturization, driven by the consumer mobile electronics market, of high performance of sensors, processors, and other avionics components needed for such aircraft. Chemical analysis, for example with a mass spectrometer, will be important to any Titan surface mission. Anticipating that it may be more practical to host chemical analysis instruments on a mothership than a daughtercraft, we defined system and mission concepts that deploy a small rotorcraft, termed a Titan Aerial Daughtercraft (TAD), from a lander or balloon to perform high-resolution imaging and mapping, potentially land to acquire microscopic images or other in situ measurements, and acquire samples to return to analytical instruments on the mothership. In principle, the ability to recharge batteries in TAD from a radioisotope or other long-lived power source on the mothership could enable multiple sorties. For a lander-based mission, a variety of landing sites is conceivable, including near lake margins, in dry lake beds, or in regions of plains, dunes, or putative cryovolanic or impact melt features. Such missions may require landing with greater precision than in previous missions (Huygens) and mission studies; this could also enhance the ability of TAD to reach interesting terrain from the landing site. Precision descent may also benefit balloon missions, with or without a daughtercraft, by increasing the probability that the balloon will drift over desired terrain early in its mission. Given these potential benefits, the overall concept studied here includes brief consideration of precision descent for landing or balloon deployment, followed by one or more sorties by a rotorcraft deployed from the mothership, with the ability to return to the mothership.

Saturn↗

NASA NTRS1997

Anterior segment sparing to reduce charged particle radiotherapy complications in uveal melanoma

PURPOSE: The purpose of this investigation is to delineate the risk factors in the development of neovascular glaucoma (NVG) after helium-ion irradiation of uveal melanoma patients and to propose treatment technique that may reduce this risk. METHODS AND MATERIALS: 347 uveal melanoma patients were treated with helium-ions using a single-port treatment technique. Using univariate and multivariate statistics, the NVG complication rate was analyzed according to the percent of anterior chamber in the radiation field, tumor size, tumor location, sex, age, dose, and other risk factors. Several University of California San Francisco-Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) patients in each size category (medium, large, and extralarge) were retrospectively replanned using two ports instead of a single port. By using appropriate polar and azimuthal gaze angles or by treating patients with two ports, the maximum dose to the anterior segment of the eye can often be reduced. Although a larger volume of anterior chamber may receive a lower dose by using two ports than a single port treatment. We hypothesize that this could reduce the level of complications that result from the irradiation of the anterior chamber of the eye. Dose-volume histograms were calculated for the lens, and compared for the single and two-port techniques. RESULTS: NVG developed in 121 (35%) patients. The risk of NVG peaked between 1 and 2.5 years posttreatment. By univariate and multivariate analysis, the percent of lens in the field was strongly correlated with the development of NVG. Other contributing factors were tumor height, history of diabetes, and vitreous hemorrhage. Dose-volume histogram analysis of single-port vs. two-port techniques demonstrate that for some patients in the medium and large category tumor groups, a significant decrease in dose to the structures in the anterior segment of the eye could have been achieved with the use of two ports. CONCLUSION: The development of NVG after helium-ion irradiation is correlated to the amount of lens, anterior chamber in the treatment field, tumor height, proximity to the fovea, history of diabetes, and the development of vitreous hemorrhage. Although the influence of the higher LET deposition of helium-ions is unclear, this study suggests that by reducing the dose to the anterior segment of the eye may reduce the NVG complications. Based on this retrospective analysis of LBNL patients, we have implemented techniques to reduce the amount of the anterior segment receiving a high dose in our new series of patients treated with protons using the cyclotron at the UC Davis Crocker Nuclear Laboratory (CNL).

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRS2003

An Examination of Issues Related to a Europa Subsurface Component for the JIMO Mission

The Galileo Europa data set served to revolutionize our view of Europa. In particular the strong evidence of a large, cold, salty Ocean beneath 5-30 km of ice has profoundly altered the significance of Europa in our thinking, especially of context of habitability in the solar system. While much remains to be learned from spacecraft observations of several sorts, there are significant questions answerable only by in-situ techniques; these relate to the formation of Europa, the nature of its ocean, and the prospects for life in its ocean, sediments, and ice. We feel that wide-ranging discussion of an in-situ subsurface mission to Europa, as part of JIMO, should proceed. The science objective of the mission is to characterize the icy shell of Europa to resolve its provenance, estimate the composition of brine of the Europa ocean, and search for evidence of Earth-like life. Probably anyone would agree that an in-situ mission to Europa would be of great value, but he or she would also immediately take the position that such a mission is utterly impractical. We take the position here of defining the least complex mission that can nonetheless justify its cost and to argue that such a mission is realistic enough that it should be seriously considered. Our mission thinking has been: 1) Soft landing. A soft lander is required on a site sufficiently flat to offer a stable platform; no further site selectivity is required. 2) Subsurface exploration. The Europa subsurface must be examined. Surficial processes on Europa arguably have exposed the upper 200 m of shell to chemical effects from the Jovian radiation belts as well as cometary infall, etc; to examine native ice we must descend below that point to, for discussion, 300 m. At that depth we argue that the ice is characteristic of ice at depth and possibly is effectively sea ice. 3) Science data. A few simple measurements at various depths and at 300 m constitute a scientifically successful mission. Measurements would include analysis of meltwater for a few inorganic ions and amino acids and an optical examination of the borehole wall. 4) Communication. Transmission of data to an orbiter is essential, but we will constrain the landed mission to a daily communication over a few days. 5) Subsurface access. Drilling to 300 m is a significant challenge; it can be addressed by several means: Thermal Probe (Cryobot) which permits water to refreeze above the vehicle. This is our tentative choice with plutonium as the fuel to generate thermal energy for drilling and electrical power for operations. Open Hole Drill, a thermal system in which the meltwater is removed for greater thermal efficiency. Meltwater removal on Europa is both a complexity and a risk, but analysis is improved. Mechanical Drilling in which cutting or grinding generates ice chips which are removed. This is too complex at Europa temperatures. The measurement objectives for the mission will be: Obj. 1: Determine the concentration of simple inorganic salts in the Europa Ice Shell and, by extrapolation, of the ocean. These data will also validate spaceborne sensors. Obj. 2: Determine the nature and abundance of amino acids in the ice such that cometary infall material in the upper ice can be compared to material at depth. Obj. 3: Optically examine the ice to resolve inclusion structure, particulate content, and stratification. Access to 300 m depth is a significant if not audacious plan; we are aware that this has not been done on any planetary body. Our approach is the use of a plutonium heat source; to overcome Europa's surface temperature and to melt ice a significant amount of plutonium is needed, and significant shielding and other protective steps will be required. The quantity of plutonium is a key concern. The mission will require subsurface collection and processing of samples for in situ analysis, calling for a miniature, high pressure micro-sampling system designed to meet needs of instruments that require low presses for operation. The inlet system itself collects a micro-sample in the external high pressure environment, then transfers it into a protected low pressure environment for analysis.

Carsey, F. D.↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Economics of NASA Mission Cost Reserves

Increases in NASA mission costs are well-noted but not well-understood, and there is little evidence that they are decreasing in frequency or amount over time. The need to control spending has led to analysis of the causes and magnitude of historical mission overruns, and many program control efforts are being implemented to attempt to prevent or mitigate the problem (NPR 7120). However, cost overruns have not abated, and while some direct causes of increased spending may be obvious (requirements creep, launch delays, directed changes, etc.), the underlying impetus to spend past the original budget may be more subtle. Gaining better insight into the causes of cost overruns will help NASA and its contracting organizations to avoid .them. This paper hypothesizes that one cause of NASA mission cost overruns is that the availability of reserves gives project team members an incentive to make decisions and behave in ways that increase costs. We theorize that the presence of reserves is a contributing factor to cost overruns because it causes organizations to use their funds less efficiently or to control spending less effectively. We draw a comparison to the insurance industry concept of moral hazard, the phenomenon that the presence of insurance causes insureds to have more frequent and higher insurance losses, and we attempt to apply actuarial techniques to quantifY the increase in the expected cost of a mission due to the availability of reserves. We create a theoretical model of reserve spending motivation by defining a variable ReserveSpending as a function of total reserves. This function has a positive slope; for every dollar of reserves available, there is a positive probability of spending it. Finally, the function should be concave down; the probability of spending each incremental dollar of reserves decreases progressively. We test the model against available NASA CADRe data by examining missions with reserve dollars initially available and testing whether they are more likely to spend those dollars, and whether larger levels of reserves lead to higher cost overruns. Finally, we address the question of how to prevent reserves from increasing mission spending without increasing cost risk to projects budgeted without any reserves. Is there a "sweet spot"? How can we derive the maximum benefit associated with risk reduction from reserves while minimizing the effects of reserve spending motivation?

Whitley, Sally↗

NASA NTRS2020

Risk and Performance Assessment of Generic Mission Architectures: Showcasing the Artemis Mission

A has initiated a strong push to return face. In this work, we astronaut assess performance and risk for proposed mission architectures using a new Mission Architecture Risk Assessment (MARA) tool. The MARA tool can produce statistics about the availability of components and overall performance of the mission considering potential failures of any of its components. In a Monte Carlo approach, the tool repeats the mission simulation multiple times while a random generator lets modules fail according to their failure rates. The results provide statistically meaningful insights into the overall performance of the chosen architecture. A given mission architecture can be freely replicated in the tool, with the mission timeline and basic characteristics of employed mission modules (habitats, rovers, power generation units, etc.) specified in a configuration file. Crucially, failure rates for each module need to be known or estimated. The tool performs an event-driven simulation of the mission and accounts for random failure events. Failed modules can be repaired, which takes crew time but restores operations. In addition to tracking individual modules, MARA can assess the availability of predefined functions throughout the mission. For instance, the function of resource collection would require a rover to collect the resources, a power generation unit to charge the rover, and a resource processing module. Together, the modules that are required for a given function are called a functional group. Similarly, we can assess how much crew time is available to achieve a mission benefit (e.g. research, building a base, etc) as opposed to spending crew time on repairs. Here we employ the method on the proposed NASA Artemis mission. Artemis aims to return United States astronauts to the lunar surface by 2024. Results provide insights into mission failure probabilities, up- and downtime for individual modules and crew-time resources spent on the repair of failed modules. The tool also allows us to tweak the mission architecture in order to find setups that produce more favorable mission performance. As such, the tool can be an aid in improving the mission architect abling cost-benefit analysis for mission improvement.

Rumpf, Clemens M.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Challenges of Mars Sample Return Lander Entry, Descent, and Landing

The proposed Mars Sample Return (MSR) campaign would be perhaps the most ambitious robotic mission ever attempted in space exploration. The notional cam-paign consists of three Flagship-class missions operating in cooperation for over a decade in order to return samples of the Martian surface and atmosphere to Earth for analysis. The Mars 2020 rover, scheduled to launch in July 2020, will cache samples and place them on the surface for possible return. The second mission would be a Sample Return Lander (SRL) that consists of a small Sample Fetch Rover (SFR) to gather the samples, a Sample Transfer Arm (STA) to load the samples into a Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), and the MAV itself to launch the samples into orbit around Mars. The third mission would be an Earth Return Or-biter (ERO) designed to rendezvous and capture the Orbiting Sample (OS), return to Earth, and separate the Earth Entry Vehicle (EEV) for Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) at a location to be determined. This paper will focus on the SRL mission concept, specifically the EDL phase. Given the ambitious SRL sample re-trieval baseline surface mission, including a rocket launch of the samples into Mars orbit, it is estimated that the EDL system may be required to deliver as much as 2100 kg of dry mass to the surface. This represents an approximate 20-25% in-crease in mass capability over previous landed Mars missions. Additionally, there is a high probability that SRL would have to land very close to the samples on the surface to expedite retrieval operations; therefore, Pin Point Landing (PPL) accu-racy may be required. To address these challenges, promising EDL configuration augmentations were studied to include larger forebody/higher drag entry capsules, hypersonic/supersonic inflatable/non-inflatable aerodynamic decelerators, hypersonic trim tabs, ballute drag devices, larger parachutes, higher Mach and higher dynamic pressure parachute deployments, lower parachute deployment altitudes having shorter chute timelines necessitating more efficient terrain sensor strategies, and ad-ditional fuel for longer powered descent diverts to the target landing site. Over-arching the entire trade study was an attempt to stay as close to the experience base of past successful missions as possible to reduce implementation cost and risk. This paper will discuss the entire SRL EDL trade study in detail. The information presented about the potential MSR campaign is pre-decisional and is provided for planning and discussion purposes only.

Ivanov, Mark C.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Electrodynamic Dust Shield for Space Applications

The International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) has chosen dust mitigation technology as a Global Exploration Roadmap (GER) critical technology need in order to reduce life cycle cost and risk, and increase the probability of mission success. NASA has also included Particulate Contamination Prevention and Mitigation as a cross-cutting technology to be developed for contamination prevention, cleaning and protection. This technology has been highlighted due to the detrimental effect of dust on both human and robotic missions. During manned Apollo missions, dust caused issues with both equipment and crew. Contamination of equipment caused many issues including incorrect instrument readings and increased temperatures due to masking of thermal radiators. The astronauts were directly affected by dust that covered space suits, obscured face shields and later propagated to the cabin and into the crew's eyes and lungs. Robotic missions on Mars were affected when solar panels were obscured by dust thereby reducing the effectiveness of the solar panels. The Electrostatics and Surface Physics Lab in Swamp Works at the Kennedy Space Center has been developing an Electrodynamic Dust Shield (EDS) to remove dust from multiple surfaces, including glass shields and thermal radiators. This technology has been tested in lab environments and has evolved over several years. Tests of the technology include reduced gravity flights (6g) in which Apollo Lunar dust samples were successfully removed from glass shields while under vacuum (1 millipascal). Further development of the technology is underway to reduce the size of the EDS as well as to perform material and component testing outside of the International Space Station (ISS) on the Materials on International Space Station Experiment X (MISSE-X). This experiment is designed to verify that the EDS can withstand the harsh environment of space and will look to closely replicate the solar environment experienced on the moon. A second flight opportunity exists to provide an EDS to several companies as part of NASA's Lunar CATALYST program. The current mission concept would fly the EDS on the footpad of one of the Lunar CATALYST vehicles. To determine the effectiveness of the EDS system, image analysis will be performed on the footpad before, during and after EDS activation. If successful in these test flights, the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of the EDS will be raised to a sufficient level to be used in the protection of mission equipment for future NASA and commercial missions to the moon, asteroids, and Mars.

Dust mitigation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Case Study of Meteoroid Fluence on a Mars Sample Return Mission

This paper presents results from an analysis to assess the fluence of meteoroids on the Mars Sample Return Campaign Micrometeoroid Protection System (MMPS) and probability of damage to the Earth Entry System Thermal Protection System (TPS). Results are presented for the mission Outbound trajectory from Earth to Mars. The MEM3 meteoroid environment model was used for the assessment. Results are presented showing the reduction in fluence on cube faces and on the MMPS that can be achieved by selection of an anti-velocity orientation of the MMPS. A methodology is presented that determines the cumulative fluence on the MMPS using the MEM3 meteoroid fluxes and the spacecraft attitude profile over the trajectory. Resulting distributions of fluence over impact velocity, angle, and mass are presented. The fluence results are used to establish velocity-angle scenarios for hydrocode simulation and to assess net damage fluence to the TPS. Example tables containing Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics Code (SPHC) simulation scenarios as well as hypothetical hydrocode simulation scenarios for illustration purposes are presented. The tables present the resulting net damaging fluence to the TPS for each scenario and the total across the scenarios. Additionally, examples of CTH hydrocode simulation are included, demonstrating their use for determining critical impactor across the impactor parameter space, and damage of impactors that penetrate the MMPS.

Micrometeoroid↗

NASA NTRS1996

Differences in Femoral Geometry and Structure Due to Immobilization

Reduction in bone mass of the lower extremity is well documented in individuals with paralysis resulting from spinal cord injury (SCI). The consequent osteopenia leads to elevated fracture risk with fractures occurring more commonly in the femoral shaft and supracondylar regions than the hip. A model has recently been described to estimate geometry and structure of the femoral midshaft from whole body scans by dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Increases in femoral geometric and structural properties during growth were primarily related to mechanical loading as reflected by body mass. In this study, we investigate the relationship between body mass and femoral geometry and structure in adults with normal habitual mechanical loading patterns and those with severely reduced loading. The subjects were 78 ambulatory men (aged 20-72 yrs) and 113 men with complete paralysis from SCI of more than 4 years duration (aged 21 73 yrs). Subregional analysis was performed on DXA whole body scans to obtain bone mineral content (BMC, g), cortical thickness (cm), crosssectional moment of inertia (CSMI, cm4), and section modulus (cm3) of the femoral midshaft. All measured bone variables were significantly lower in SCI compared with ambulatory subjects: -29% (BMC), -33% (cortical thickness), -23% (CSMI), and -22% (section modulus) while body mass was not significantly different. However, the associations between body mass and bone properties were notably different; r2 values were higher for ambulatory than SCI subjects in regressions of body mass on BMC (0.48 vs 0.20), CSMI (0.59 vs 0.32), and section modulus (0.59 vs 0.31). No association was seen between body mass and cortical thickness for either group. The greatest difference between groups is in the femoral cortex, consistent with reduced bone mass via endosteal expansion. The relatively lesser difference in geometric and structural properties implies that there is less effect on mechanical integrity than would be expected from bone mass results alone. The reduced association in SCI subjects between body mass and bone properties is not unexpected. Although mean body mass differs little between ambulatory and SCI individuals, the association between body mass and in vivo skeletal loading is no longer present, as mechanical influences are removed except for transfer activities. The residual association is probably attributable to the strength of this influence during growth. These results highlight the importance of examining geometry and structure in conjunction with bone mass.

Kiratli, Beatrice Jenny↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dose, LET, time and strain dependence of radiation-induced 53BP1 foci in 15 mouse strains ex vivo and associations to in vivo radiation susceptibility

We present a comparative analysis on the repair of radiation-induced DNA damage ex vivo in 15 strains of mice, including 5 inbred reference strains and 10 collaborative-cross strains, of both sexes. Non-immortalized primary skin fibroblasts derived from 76 mice were subjected to both low- and high-LET radiation (0.1, 1 and 4 Gy of X rays; 1.1 and 3 particles/100μm2 of 350 MeV/n 40Ar and 600 MeV/n 56Fe). Automated image quantification of 53BP1 radiation-induced foci (RIF) during the first 4-48 h post-irradiation was performed as a function of dose and LET. Similarly to what we had previously reported for immortalized human cell lines [1], we observed a saturation of RIF number with dose at 4h post-irradiation, with more RIF/Gy for lower LET (X rays and 40Ar) compared to 56Fe. However at later time points (24h and above), the trend was inverted with more RIF/Gy for higher LET. Our data suggest that multiple DSBs cluster into RIF: as the linear density of DSBs increases with LET, so does the probability of having more DSBs per RIF, which makes it more difficult for cells to fully resolve high-LET-induced RIF, explaining the hypersensitivity to high-LET radiation despite a low number of RIF. Taking into account the amount of clustering at a given dose and LET, but also the kinetics of DNA damage repair, we introduced a novel mathematical formalism to evaluate the number of remaining RIF over time. We showed that the newly introduced kinetic metrics can be used as surrogate biomarkers for in vivo radiation toxicity, with potential applications in radiotherapy and human space exploration. In particular, we observed an association between the repairable fraction of RIF measured in vitro and survival levels of immune cells collected from irradiated mice. Moreover, the speed of DNA damage repair correlated with spontaneous cancer incidence data collected from the Mouse Tumor Biology database, suggesting a relationship between the efficiency of DSB repair after irradiation and cancer risk. In addition to the efficacy of repair and persistent RIF levels, even the amount of spontaneous foci without irradiation was shown to be strain dependent, indicating that these phenotypes are at least partially driven by genetics, and supporting their potential as indicators of individual radiation sensitivity. [1] Neumaier, T., et al., PNAS, 2012 (8) 109:443

Radiation, DNA damage, repair kinetics↗

NASA NTRS2024

Risk of Bone Fracture due to Spaceflight-induced Changes to Bone

The Human Research Program (HRP) is taking a biomechanical approach to assessing subsequent fracture risk in active astronauts as a consequence of spaceflight exposure. Triennial testing of active and retired astronauts continues as Space Medicine monitors for a premature diagnosis of primary osteoporosis, which is associated with age-related bone loss and skeletal fragility. This updated 2023 Fracture Evidence Report has expanded the description of skeletal changes to capture the full effects of spaceflight on bone: • Recent analysis of fractures from health records of the full astronaut cohort, suggests an increased incidence rate of hip and spine fractures in astronauts following longer spaceflight duration flights compared to incident rates found in shorter duration flights. • Routine preflight-to-postflight surveillance by DXA (dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry) does not provide the full detection of loss and recovery in the long-duration (LD) astronaut nor the full recovery of hip trabecular bone. • The inclusion of hip quantitative computed tomography (QCT) in flight studies delineates effects of spaceflight, of countermeasures, and of post-flight recovery on cortical and trabecular bone parameters—some of which are verified predictors of hip fracture in the aged. • QCT detects and compares the distinct countermeasure effects of the pharmaceutical alendronate and of resistive exercise (on the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device, ARED) in specific cortical and trabecular bone sub-regions during spaceflight. • A published comparison of QCT-determined loss rates of hip trabecular bone in LD astronauts compared to terrestrial cohorts suggest that accelerated loss rates in trabecular volumetric BMD (vBMD) during spaceflight might be analogous to skeletal effects of accelerated loss rates in females due to menopause, potentially leading to disruptions in trabecular microarchitecture. • A dataset of finite element (FE) estimates of hip bone strength in aging terrestrial cohorts (spanning astronaut age-range) provides comparative context for changes in the FE of hip bone strength in LD astronauts, including comparison (force unit of newton) to percentiles (50th, 75th, and 100th) of sex-matched aged humans with hip fractures. • Risk of fracture, due to the mechanical overloading of bones, is being updated with IMPACT, the next-generation tool suite for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for exploration missions being created by the Exploration and Medical Capability Element (ExMC) at NASA. IMPACT is currently in development and will not be included in this 2024 update. The risk for fracture necessitates understanding the relationship between applied loads to bone and the biomechanical competence of bone. The Risk for Early Onset Osteoporosis focuses on the weakened condition of bone (including development of new technologies, measurements of novel skeletal attributes, translation of multiple measures to an index of bone fragility, and interpretations of data used to reflect a weakened bone), while the Risk for Fracture assesses factors that influence the probability an astronaut would encounter applied loads exceeding the biomechanical competence of bones, resulting in fracture. This Evidence Report combines the research gaps and tasks associated with both risks.

Fracture↗

NASA NTRS2013

First Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Timing Study

NASA's LSP, GSDO and other programs use the probability of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning occurrence issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) in their daily and weekly lightning probability forecasts. These organizations use this information when planning potentially hazardous outdoor activities, such as working with fuels, or rolling a vehicle to a launch pad, or whenever personnel will work outside and would be at-risk from lightning. These organizations would benefit greatly if the 45 WS could provide more accurate timing of the first CG lightning strike of the day. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) has made significant improvements in forecasting the probability of lightning for the day, but forecasting the time of the first CG lightning with confidence has remained a challenge. To address this issue, the 45 WS requested the AMU to determine if flow regimes, wind speed categories, or a combination of the two could be used to forecast the timing of the first strike of the day in the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) lightning warning circles. The data was stratified by various sea breeze flow regimes and speed categories in the surface to 5,000-ft layer. The surface to 5,000-ft layer was selected since that is the layer the 45 WS uses to predict the behavior of sea breeze fronts, which are the dominant influence on the occurrence of first lightning in Florida during the warm season. Due to small data sample sizes after stratification, the AMU could not determine a statistical relationship between flow regimes or speed categories and the time of the first CG strike.. As expected, although the amount and timing of lightning activity varies by time of day based on the flow regimes and speed categories, there are extended tails of low lightning activity making it difficult to specify times when the threat of the first lightning flash can be avoided. However, the AMU developed a graphical user interface with input from the 45 WS that allows forecasters to visualize the climatological frequencies of the timing of the first lightning strike. This tool should contribute directly to the 45 WS goal of improving lightning timing capability for its NASA, US Air Force and commercial customers.

statistical analysis↗

NASA NTRS2015

Implementation of an Open-Scenario, Long-Term Space Debris Simulation Approach

This paper provides a status update on the implementation of a flexible, long-term space debris simulation approach. The motivation is to build a tool that can assess the long-term impact of various options for debris-remediation, including the LightForce space debris collision avoidance concept that diverts objects using photon pressure [9]. State-of-the-art simulation approaches that assess the long-term development of the debris environment use either completely statistical approaches, or they rely on large time steps on the order of several days if they simulate the positions of single objects over time. They cannot be easily adapted to investigate the impact of specific collision avoidance schemes or de-orbit schemes, because the efficiency of a collision avoidance maneuver can depend on various input parameters, including ground station positions and orbital and physical parameters of the objects involved in close encounters (conjunctions). Furthermore, maneuvers take place on timescales much smaller than days. For example, LightForce only changes the orbit of a certain object (aiming to reduce the probability of collision), but it does not remove entire objects or groups of objects. In the same sense, it is also not straightforward to compare specific de-orbit methods in regard to potential collision risks during a de-orbit maneuver. To gain flexibility in assessing interactions with objects, we implement a simulation that includes every tracked space object in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and propagates all objects with high precision and variable time-steps as small as one second. It allows the assessment of the (potential) impact of physical or orbital changes to any object. The final goal is to employ a Monte Carlo approach to assess the debris evolution during the simulation time-frame of 100 years and to compare a baseline scenario to debris remediation scenarios or other scenarios of interest. To populate the initial simulation, we use the entire space-track object catalog in LEO. We then use a high precision propagator to propagate all objects over the entire simulation duration. If collisions are detected, the appropriate number of debris objects are created and inserted into the simulation framework. Depending on the scenario, further objects, e.g. due to new launches, can be added. At the end of the simulation, the total number of objects above a cut-off size and the number of detected collisions provide benchmark parameters for the comparison between scenarios. The simulation approach is computationally intensive as it involves tens of thousands of objects; hence we use a highly parallel approach employing up to a thousand cores on the NASA Pleiades supercomputer for a single run. This paper describes our simulation approach, the status of its implementation, the approach to developing scenarios and examples of first test runs.

laser↗