Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “probabilistic program”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

West Valley Demonstration Project Annual Site Environmental Report (CY2019)

The report, prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy West Valley Demonstration Project office (DOE-WVDP), summarizes the environmental protection program at the WVDP for calendar year (CY) 2019. Monitoring and surveillance of the facilities used by the DOE are conducted to verify protection of public health and safety and the environment. The report is a key component of DOE’s effort to keep the public informed of environmental conditions at the WVDP. The quality assurance protocols applied to the environmental monitoring program ensure the validity and accuracy of the monitoring data. In addition to demonstrating compliance with environmental laws, regulations, and directives, evaluation of data collected in 2019 continued to indicate that WVDP activities pose no threat to public health or safety, or to the environment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1994

Probabilistic Material Strength Degradation Model for Inconel 718 Components Subjected to High Temperature, Mechanical Fatigue, Creep and Thermal Fatigue Effects

This thesis presents the on-going development of methodology for a probabilistic material strength degradation model. The probabilistic model, in the form of a postulated randomized multifactor equation, provides for quantification of uncertainty in the lifetime material strength of aerospace propulsion system components subjected to a number of diverse random effects. This model is embodied in the computer program entitled PROMISS, which can include up to eighteen different effects. Presently, the model includes four effects that typically reduce lifetime strength: high temperature, mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue. Statistical analysis was conducted on experimental Inconel 718 data obtained from the open literature. This analysis provided regression parameters for use as the model's empirical material constants, thus calibrating the model specifically for Inconel 718. Model calibration was carried out for four variables, namely, high temperature, mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue. Methodology to estimate standard deviations of these material constants for input into the probabilistic material strength model was developed. Using the current version of PROMISS, entitled PROMISS93, a sensitivity study for the combined effects of mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue was performed. Results, in the form of cumulative distribution functions, illustrated the sensitivity of lifetime strength to any current value of an effect. In addition, verification studies comparing a combination of mechanical fatigue and high temperature effects by model to the combination by experiment were conducted. Thus, for Inconel 718, the basic model assumption of independence between effects was evaluated. Results from this limited verification study strongly supported this assumption.

Bast, Callie Corinne Scheidt↗
DOE OSTI2019

Radiological Performance Modeling: Platform Comparison

Zapadnoe Uranium Mill Tailings Site, Pridneprovsky Chemical Plant Ukraine: Two exposure scenarios were utilized to develop performance assessment models in GoldSim and NORMALYSA. The first scenario is an onsite worker exposed to radioactivity through external ground irradiation as well as radon and radioactive dust inhalation. The second being an offsite Resident 300 years after institutional control exposed through the ingestion of garden vegetables irrigated by contaminated ground water, ingestion of fish from Konoplyanka River, and agricultural activities in contaminated garden. NORMALYSA utilizes a modular interface to connect extensive pre-created modules to develop contaminant transport and risk assessment models for safety assessments and performance assessments at NORM and legacy sites. Developed by Facilia AB, the program was tested with the creation of the Zapadnoe model under the International Atomic Energy Agency MODARIA Il Working Group 1 (WG1). Default values are provided for input parameters where site specific data and distributions lack. Probabilistic simulations and inputs are limited to parameters with assigned Gaussian probability functions. Similar results for transient worker inhalation dose were found in comparison with the Zapadnoe GoldSim model. However, the NORMALYSA model has results larger by an order of magnitude for external radiation in the transient worker and for aquatic food ingestion, inhalation, and garden food ingestion to the resident. Performance Assessment Modeling: Radiological performance models promote good management and support in remediation and environmental decision making by optimizing radioactive waste disposal site performance. a performance assessment model of the Zapadnoe uranium mill tailings site and a model for calculating authorized limits at Los Alamos National Laboratory are created to demonstrate and highlight the respective capabilities of three modeling platforms: GoldSim, NORMALYSA, and RESRAD-Onsite. GoldSim is a general-purpose modeling platform with the ability to simulate site-specific FT radionuclide transport and risk assessment using a graphical interface to create and link elements that act as indivisible building blocks of the model. The Zapadnoe performance assessment model created in GoldSim is composed of input parameters collected from site specific parameters from WG1 as well as standard assumptions seen in the Generic PA Model from Neptune and Company. The multivariate Zapadnoe simulation contains both deterministic and probabilistic simulation capabilities with the ability to quantitatively represent the uncertainty and associated risks of the site via the Monte Carlo simulation method. Model parameters, documentation, and assumptions are built directly into the model creating a transparent, reproducible, and more purposeful site specific model. To demonstrate this, an ingestion of water pathway was included in addition to the exposure pathways included in the NORMALYSA model. GoldSim offers a wide variety of probability distributions to choose from as well as many tools to visualize the uncertainty of the models and explore which pathways and radionuclides dominate dose. In contrast to the NORMALYSA model, the GoldSim model uses dynamic simulation to calculate tritium concentrations. Authorized limits support the evaluation of radiological health effects from radionuclides present in bulk contaminated soil in order to assist in the process of clearing land for release under different uses. Calculations of authorized limits in RESRAD-Onsite and GoldSim models support the evaluation for 15 radionuclides using a residential exposure scenario, indoor and outdoor inhalation of dust and vapor phase radionuclides (tritium), incidental soil ingestion, and ingestion grown fruits and Vegetables. RESRAD-Onsite, developed by Argonne National Laboratory is a dedicated computer code for calculating radiation doses and cancer risks to an individual located on top of radioactively contaminated soils. It can also be used to provide guidelines for deriving radionuclide soil levels corresponding to a specific dose criterion. The menu driven user interface facilitates selection of radionuclides and soil concentrations, as well as defines parameter values related to materials, environmental factors, and exposure pathways. The program contains radionuclide-specific data such as dose conversion factors and risk coefficients, as well as soil-water partition coefficients and transfer factors for biotic media. The GoldSim model successfully emulates the RESRAD-Onsite code using identical radiological decay and ingrowth factors, radiation dose conversion factors, and other input parameters. DE EEDE ETS Each model supports dynamic modeling of radionuclide ingrowth and decay over time, and integrate this capability with the transport of radionuclides in the environment via processes such as advection and/or diffusion in fluids, or within porous solid media, The applicability of each program is heavily dependent on project context. In the context of developing Authorized Limits, RESRAD-Onsite may be a more desirable option as it was developed for this particular application. For simple disposal or legacy sites or sites that do not need site-specific model structure, NORMALYSA may be a desirable modeling platform, GoldSim can be used to model any problem for which RESRAD or NORMALYSA is applicable, but its strength lies in its flexibility, analytical, and probabilistic capabilities.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1987

Certainty grids for mobile robots

A numerical representation of uncertain and incomplete sensor knowledge called Certainty Grids has been used successfully in several mobile robot control programs, and has proven itself to be a powerful and efficient unifying solution for sensor fusion, motion planning, landmark identification, and many other central problems. Researchers propose to build a software framework running on processors onboard the new Uranus mobile robot that will maintain a probabilistic, geometric map of the robot's surroundings as it moves. The certainty grid representation will allow this map to be incrementally updated in a uniform way from various sources including sonar, stereo vision, proximity and contact sensors. The approach can correctly model the fuzziness of each reading, while at the same time combining multiple measurements to produce sharper map features, and it can deal correctly with uncertainties in the robot's motion. The map will be used by planning programs to choose clear paths, identify locations (by correlating maps), identify well-known and insufficiently sensed terrain, and perhaps identify objects by shape. The certainty grid representation can be extended in the same dimension and used to detect and track moving objects.

Moravec, H. P.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Efficient and Collision-Free Anticipative Cruise Control in Randomly Mixed Strings

Connected intelligent vehicle following can improve safety and efficiency compared to today's road transport, but real traffic in the near future will not provide an ideal setting for its deployment. Unconnected human-driven vehicles will follow variable behavior patterns that combine with differences in dynamic capability to create heterogeneous scenarios. In this paper, connected automated vehicles employ model predictive control for following in traffic that may include both heavy and passenger vehicles at quasi-random positions. Adding further realism, some quasi-randomly mixed vehicles are completely unconnected and equipped with the reactive intelligent driver model using pseudorandom parameters. A mixed-integer quadratic programming formulation adapts the predictive algorithm to diverse powertrain operating point constraints. The preceding vehicle's control input is estimated from velocity and brake light observations and used to probabilistically generate a preview for the ego vehicle. Here, a terminal constraint designed using particle kinematics prevents collisions due to shortsightedness. Results are simulated at various heavy and predictive vehicle concentrations in the presence of packet loss. Linear fuel economy improvements between 1.4% and 1.9% per 10% increase in predictive vehicle penetration rate are shown.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Data-Driven Load Modeling and Forecasting of Residential Appliances

The expansion of residential demand side management programs and increased deployment of controllable loads require accurate appliance-level load modeling and forecasting. This paper proposes a conditional hidden semi-Markov model to describe the probabilistic nature of residential appliance demand. Model parameters are estimated directly from power consumption data using scalable statistical learning methods. We also propose an algorithm for short-term load forecasting as a key application for appliance-level load models. Case studies performed using granular sub-metered power measurements from various types of appliances demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed load model for short-term prediction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2000

NASA's New Approach for Evaluating Risk Reduction Due to Space Shuttle Upgrades

As part of NASA's intensive effort to incorporate quantitative risk assessment (QRA) tools in the Agency's decision-making process concerning Space Shuttle risk, NASA has developed a powerful risk assessment tool called the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS). The QRAS is a tool designed to estimate Space Shuttle risk and evaluate Space Shuttle upgrades. This paper presents an overview of the QRAS with focus on its application for evaluating the risk reduction due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. The application includes a case study from the Space Shuttle main engine (SSME). The QRAS overview section of the paper includes the QRAS development process, the technical approach to model development, the QRA quantification methods and techniques, and observations concerning the complex modeling involved in QRAS. The application section of the paper describes a practical case study using QRAS models for evaluating critical Space Shuttle Program upgrades, specifically a proposed SSME nozzle upgrade. This paper presents the method for evaluating the proposed upgrade by comparing the current nozzle (old design with well-established probabilistic models) to the channel wall nozzle (new design at the preliminary design level).

Safie, Fayssal M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Ceramic Inclusions in Powder Metallurgy Disk Alloys: Characterization and Modeling

Powder metallurgy alloys are increasingly used in gas turbine engines, especially in turbine disk applications. Although powder metallurgy materials have many advantages over conventionally cast and wrought alloys (higher strength, higher temperature capability, etc.), they suffer from the rare occurrence of ceramic defects (inclusions) that are inherent to the powder atomization process. These inclusions can have a potentially large detrimental effect on the durability of individual components. An inclusion in a high stress location can act as a site for premature crack initiation and thereby considerably reduce the fatigue life. Because these inclusions are exceedingly rare, they typically do not reveal themselves in the process of characterizing the material for a particular application (the cumulative volume of the test bars in a fatigue life characterization is typically on the order of a single actual component). Ceramic inclusions have, however, been found to be the root cause of a number of catastrophic engine failures. To investigate the effect of these inclusions in detail, we have undertaken a study where known populations of ceramic particles, whose composition and morphology are designed to mimic the "natural" inclusions, are added to the precursor powder. Surface-connected inclusions have been found to have a particularly large detrimental effect on fatigue life; therefore, the quantity of ceramic "seeds" added is calculated to ensure that a minimum number will intersect the surface of the fatigue test bars. Because the ceramic inclusions are irregularly shaped and have a tendency to break up in the process of extrusion and forging, a method of calculating the probability of occurrence and expected intercepted surface area was needed. We have developed a Monte Carlo simulation to determine the distributions of these parameters and have verified the simulated results with observations of ceramic inclusions found in macroscopic slices from extrusions and forgings. Fatigue specimens have been machined from Udimet 720 (a powder metallurgy superalloy) forgings, to determine the effects of the inclusions on fatigue life. The ultimate goal of this study will be to use probabilistic methods to determine the reliability detriment that can be attributed to these ceramic inclusions. This work has been supported by the Ultra Safe and Ultra- Efficient Engine Technologies programs.

Bonacuse, Peter J.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Reliability and Creep/Fatigue Analysis of a CMC Component

High temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are being explored as viable candidate materials for hot section gas turbine components. These advanced composites can potentially lead to reduced weight and enable higher operating temperatures requiring less cooling; thus leading to increased engine efficiencies. There is a need for convenient design tools that can accommodate various loading conditions and material data with their associated uncertainties to estimate the minimum predicted life as well as the failure probabilities of a structural component. This paper presents a review of the life prediction and probabilistic analyses performed for a CMC turbine stator vane. A computer code, NASALife, is used to predict the life of a 2-D woven silicon carbide fiber reinforced silicon carbide matrix (SiC/SiC) turbine stator vane due to a mission cycle which induces low cycle fatigue and creep. The output from this program includes damage from creep loading, damage due to cyclic loading and the combined damage due to the given loading cycle. Results indicate that the trends predicted by NASALife are as expected for the loading conditions used for this study. In addition, a combination of woven composite micromechanics, finite element structural analysis and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques has been used to evaluate the maximum stress and its probabilistic distribution in a CMC turbine stator vane. Input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Results indicate that reducing the scatter in proportional limit strength of the vane material has the greatest effect in improving the overall reliability of the CMC vane.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Fragment Impact Toolkit (FIT)

The Fragment Impact Toolkit (FIT) is a software package used for probabilistic consequence evaluation of fragmenting sources. The typical use case for FIT is to simulate an exploding shell and evaluate the consequence on nearby objects. FIT is written in the programming language Python and is designed as a collection of interacting software modules. Each module has a function that interacts with the other modules to produce desired results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1976

Vibroacoustic test plan evaluation: Parameter variation study

Statistical decision models are shown to provide a viable method of evaluating the cost effectiveness of alternate vibroacoustic test plans and the associated test levels. The methodology developed provides a major step toward the development of a realistic tool to quantitatively tailor test programs to specific payloads. Testing is considered at the no test, component, subassembly, or system level of assembly. Component redundancy and partial loss of flight data are considered. Most and probabilistic costs are considered, and incipient failures resulting from ground tests are treated. Optimums defining both component and assembly test levels are indicated for the modified test plans considered. modeling simplifications must be considered in interpreting the results relative to a particular payload. New parameters introduced were a no test option, flight by flight failure probabilities, and a cost to design components for higher vibration requirements. Parameters varied were the shuttle payload bay internal acoustic environment, the STS launch cost, the component retest/repair cost, and the amount of redundancy in the housekeeping section of the payload reliability model.

Stahle, C. V.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Medical Model Overview

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project represents one aspect of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess medical risks to astronauts for existing operational missions as well as missions associated with future exploration and commercial space flight ventures. The IMM takes a probabilistic approach to assessing the likelihood and specific outcomes of one hundred medical conditions within the envelope of accepted space flight standards of care over a selectable range of mission capabilities. A specially developed Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) maintains evidence-based, organizational knowledge across a variety of data sources. Since becoming operational in 2011, version 3.0 of the IMM, the supporting iMED, and the expertise of the IMM project team have contributed to a wide range of decision and informational processes for the space medical and human research community. This presentation provides an overview of the IMM conceptual architecture and range of application through examples of actual space flight community questions posed to the IMM project.

Spae Adaptation Syndrome↗
DOE OSTI2017

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Status of Adaptive Surrogates within the RAVEN framework

The RAVEN code has been under development at the Idaho National Laboratory since 2012. Its main goal is to create a multi-purpose platform for the deploying of all the capabilities needed for Probabilistic Risk Assessment, uncertainty quantification, data mining analysis and optimization studies. RAVEN has demonstrated a good level of maturity in terms of state-of-art and advanced analysis methodologies. Indeed, in the past year the RAVEN code has been released as open-source project and is available to download (raven.inl.gov) free of charge. The main subject of this report is to show the activities that have been recently accomplished with respect the adaptive surrogate modeling: Implementation of the metric system for the assessment of surrogate model validity; Implementation of cross-validation techniques for the global assessment of surrogate models; Implementation of an automatic infrastructure for switching between a high-fidelity model (e.g. physical code) and a surrogate or set of surrogates; Implementation of a scheme for automatic optimization of surrogate model parameters. The aim of this document is to report the status of the development of methods, within the RAVEN framework, to assess the validity of the predictive capabilities of surrogate models. Indeed, after the construction of a surrogate tight to a certain physical model, it is crucial to assess the goodness of its representation, in order to be confident with its prediction. A cross-validation technique has been employed. This report will highlight the implementation details and proof its correct implementation by an application example. The implementation of a way to assess the predictive capabilities of a surrogate allowed the construction of a RAVEN new entity named “HybridModel” that is aimed to switch between an high-fidelity code and its linked surrogate. In addition, leveraging the optimization algorithms that have been implemented in RAVEN last fiscal year, a new scheme has been developed for automatic tuning of the surrogates’ parameters (e.g. penalty factors in support vector machines).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2002

Application of Risk Assessment Tools in the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Process

Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently implementing the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Program developed by the Carnegie Mellon University and recommended by NASA as the Risk Management (RM) implementation approach. The four most frequently used risk assessment tools in the center are: (a) Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis (HA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), and Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). There are some guidelines for selecting the type of risk assessment tools during the project formulation phase of a project, but there is not enough guidance as to how to apply these tools in the Continuous Risk Management process (CRM). But the ways the safety and risk assessment tools are used make a significant difference in the effectiveness in the risk management function. Decisions regarding, what events are to be included in the analysis, to what level of details should the analysis be continued, make significant difference in the effectiveness of risk management program. Tools of risk analysis also depends on the phase of a project e.g. at the initial phase of a project, when not much data are available on hardware, standard FMEA cannot be applied; instead a functional FMEA may be appropriate. This study attempted to provide some directives to alleviate the difficulty in applying FTA, PRA, and FMEA in the CRM process. Hazard Analysis was not included in the scope of the study due to the short duration of the summer research project.

Paul S. Ray↗
NASA NTRS1983

Validation methods for flight crucial systems

Research to develop techniques that can aid in determining the reliability and performance of digital electronic fault-tolerant systems, that have probability of catastrophic system failure on the order of 10 to the -9th at 10 hours, is reviewed. The computer-aided reliability estimation program (CARE III) provides general-purpose reliability analysis and a design tool for fault-tolerant systems; large reduction of state size; and a fault-handling model based on probabilistic description of detection, isolation, and recovery mechanisms. The application of design proof techniques as part of the design and development of the software implemented fault-tolerance computer is mentioned. Emulation techniques and experimental procedures are verified using specimens of fault-tolerant computers and the capabilities of the validation research laboratory, AIRLAB.

Holt, H. M.↗
NASA NTRS2020

MEDPRAT-SEL: Medical Resource Set Selector Searching High-Dimensionality Space

NASA Human Research Program's (HRP) next generation risk model closes the loop on medical risk and resource evaluation, providing researchers with a tool to assess and choose capabilities scientifically. The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) simulator (SIM) evaluates resources in terms of medical benefit, such as reduced crew quality time lost (QTL), vs. cost, in mass or volume. The MEDPRAT resource set selector (SEL) searches the space of resource benefits v. cost, closing a feedback loop around the simulator, thus selecting resource sets with best benefit for cost. We discuss the design and results of the resource set selector. NASA HRP's emphasis on scientific assessment of risk, PRA, has led to the Cross-cutting Computational Modeling Project (CCMP).

Leinweber, Lawrence↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Rule-Based Expert System Applied to Moisture Durability of Building Envelopes

The moisture durability of an envelope component such as a wall or roof is difficult to predict. Moisture durability depends on all the construction materials used, as well as the climate, orientation, air tightness, and indoor conditions. Modern building codes require more insulation and tighter construction but provide little guidance about how to ensure these energy-efficient assemblies remain moisture durable. Furthermore, as new products and materials are introduced, builders are increasingly uncertain about the long-term durability of their building envelope designs. Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the US Department of Energy's Building America Program are applying a rule-based expert system methodology in a web tool to help designers determine whether a given wall design is likely to be moisture durable and provide expert guidance on moisture risk management specific to a wall design and climate. The expert system is populated with knowledge from both expert judgment and probabilistic hygrothermal simulation results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2001

Probabilistic Risk-Based Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment Developed

In an era of shrinking development budgets and resources, where there is also an emphasis on reducing the product development cycle, the role of system assessment, performed in the early stages of an engine development program, becomes very critical to the successful development of new aeropropulsion systems. A reliable system assessment not only helps to identify the best propulsion system concept among several candidates, it can also identify which technologies are worth pursuing. This is particularly important for advanced aeropropulsion technology development programs, which require an enormous amount of resources. In the current practice of deterministic, or point-design, approaches, the uncertainties of design variables are either unaccounted for or accounted for by safety factors. This could often result in an assessment with unknown and unquantifiable reliability. Consequently, it would fail to provide additional insight into the risks associated with the new technologies, which are often needed by decisionmakers to determine the feasibility and return-on-investment of a new aircraft engine.

Tong, Michael T.↗