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DOE OSTI2026

Multi-Modal Bayesian Neural Network Surrogates with Conjugate Last-Layer Estimation

As data collection and simulation capabilities advance, multi-modal learning, the task of learning from multiple modalities and sources of data, is becoming an increasingly important area of research. Surrogate models that learn from data of multiple auxiliary modalities to support the modeling of a highly expensive quantity of interest have the potential to aid outer loop applications such as optimization, inverse problems, or sensitivity analyses when multi-modal data are available. We develop two multi-modal Bayesian neural network surrogate models and leverage conditionally conjugate distributions in the last layer to estimate model parameters using stochastic variational inference (SVI). We provide a method to perform this conjugate SVI estimation in the presence of partially missing observations. Here, we demonstrate improved prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to unimodal surrogate models for both scalar and time series data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Wear of Wave Energy Converters Mooring Lines Belts

Using a belt as a replacement for a rope on a rotary power take-offs (PTOs) system has become more common for wave energy converters, improving cyclic bend over sheave performance with a smaller bending thickness for belts. However, the service life predictions of PTOs are a major concern in design, because belt performance under harsh underwater environments is largely less studied. Here, in this work, the effect of fleet and twist angles on wear life is being investigated both experimentally and numerically. Two three-dimensional equivalent static finite element models are constructed to evaluate the complex stress state of polyurethane-steel belts around steel drums. The first is to capture the response of the experimental investigation performed on the wear life, and the second to predict the wear life of an existing functional PTO. The results show a significant effect for fleet and twist angles on stress concentrations and estimated service life.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2025

Detailed Design and Cost Estimation of a 300 MWe Oxy-Fuel sCO2 Turbine

The detailed design of a 300 MWe, utility scale oxy-fuel turbine has been completed for purposed operation in the sCO2 direct fired Allam-Fetvedt cycle, targeting near-zero emissions and a 50% LHV system efficiency. The turbine and its supporting plant aim to offer a lower levelized cost of energy than a natural gas combined cycle plant employing carbon capture. The oxy-fuel turbine conditions include an inlet temperature of 1150°C and inlet pressure of 305 bar, representing temperatures near that of a gas turbine simultaneously with pressures near an ultra-supercritical steam turbine. The combustor housing and turbine designs were completed according to the ASME BPVC; the turbine case specifically incorporates a multi-body design with inner high-pressure barrel case and low-pressure (30 bar) horizontally split outer case of low-chromium steel material. Lateral rotordynamic evaluation demonstrated acceptable vibration response for a range of imbalance conditions per API standards. The cooling flow required in the six-stage turbine flowpath for 30,000 hr. blade and stator lifetime is predicted through thermal and structural modeling of the first stage. The provided cost estimate of the turbine is formed through a combination of scaled up-costs from procured 10 MWe scale sCO2 turbomachinery hardware, and vendor provided budgetary quotes of larger components including the turbine case requiring casting, welding, and final machining processes. The performance and cost estimation of the oxy-fuel turbine predicted for the completed detailed design provides important information towards future development needs for market penetration of utility scale direct fired sCO2 power cycles.

Marshall, Michael [Southwest Research Institute, S↗

DOE OSTI2021

Projected Cosmological Constraints from Strongly Lensed Supernovae with the Roman Space Telescope

One of the primary mission objectives of the Roman Space Telescope is to investigate the nature of dark energy with a variety of methods. Observations of Type I supernovae (SNe Ia) will be one of the principal anchors of the Roman cosmology program through traditional luminosity distance measurements. This SNe Ia cosmology program can provide another valuable cosmological probe, without altering the strategy of the mission: time delay cosmography with gravitationally lensed supernova (SN). In this work, we forecast lensed SN cosmology constraints with the Roman Space Telescope, while providing useful tools for future work. Using the anticipated characteristics of the Roman SNe Ia survey, we have constructed mock catalogs of expected resolved lensing systems, as well as strongly lensed Type Ia and core-collapse (CC) SN light curves, including microlensing effects. We predict Roman will find ~11 lensed SNe Ia and ~20 CCSNe, depending on the survey strategy. Next, we estimate the time delay precision obtainable with Roman (Ia: ~2 days, CC: ~3 days), and use a Fisher matrix analysis to derive projected constraints on H 0 ,Ω m , and the dark energy equation of state, w, for each SNe Ia survey strategy. Here, a strategy optimized for the discovery of high-redshift SNe Ia is preferred when considering the constraints possible from both SNe Ia and lensed SN cosmology, also delivering ~1.5 times more lensed SNe than other proposed survey strategies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Atomistic Investigation of Plastic Deformation and Dislocation Motion in Uranium Mononitride

Uranium mononitride (UN) is a promising advanced nuclear fuel due to its high thermal conductivity and high fissile density. However, many aspects of its mechanical behavior, particularly at reactor-relevant conditions, remain unclear. In this study, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were employed to investigate the deformation behavior and dislocation motion in UN. We found that the Kocevski potential predicts the principal slip system as $\frac{1}{2}$ $\langle110\rangle${110}, aligning with experimental data. On the other hand, the Tseplyaev potential predicts slip to primarily occur on $\frac{1}{2}$ $\langle110\rangle${111}. MD simulations of stress–strain behavior were used to estimate the nanoindentation hardness, revealing that the Kocevski potential accurately predicts hardness even though it fails to model dynamic plasticity. Complete dislocation mobility functions have been fitted for the edge and screw dislocations in both the thermally activated and phonon-drag regimes. The 300 K linear mobility of the edge dislocation using the Tseplyaev potential was found to be 817 Pa -1 ·s -1 , whereas that of the screw dislocation using the Kocevski potential was found to be 4546 Pa -1 ·s -1 . At intermediate stresses, we observed that the subsonic steady-state motion of the edge dislocation in UN is intermittently interrupted by velocity jumps, reaching the average sound velocity. Finally, the threshold Schmid stress is calculated as 179–197 MPa, which gives an upper-limit estimate of the uniaxial yield stress of polycrystalline UN of 548–603 MPa. These findings, including the fitted dislocation mobility function, provide essential input for future plasticity and dislocation dynamics models of nuclear fuels.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Final Report on Predictive Analyses of PRD as Function of Anomalies

This report summarizes the work completed in FY-2024 to analyze the power reactivity decrement (PRD) concepts of the ARC-100 core. The PRD has been traditionally defined by the reactivity change from a hot zero power (HZP) to a particular power. Consequently, the PRD accounts for the core reactivity changes due to increase coolant temperature gradient axially and radially across the core, and increased fuel temperature. The coolant temperature gradient leads to sodium and structure density changes, to radial core expansion from assembly flowering and bowing (due to axial and radial temperature gradients within the assemblies), and to control rod driveline thermal expansion. The fuel temperature increase associated with coolant temperature and power increases leads to Doppler effect and axial thermal expansion. In this work, the normal operating Hot Full Power (HFP) state is the only power level of interest, so analyses focus on the PRD calculated from HZP to HFP. The PRD has been used to assess the reactor safety features asymptotically in unprotected accident scenarios, including the loss of heat sink (LOHS), loss of flow (LOF), and transient overpower (TOP) without scram. The PRD concept relies on the “global” reactivity coefficients A, B, and C that are estimated based on “individual” reactivity effects (Doppler, sodium density, etc.). The objectives of this work are: 1) to improve and verify the methodology used to calculate the ABC coefficients used in the PRD, 2) to assess if the PRD can be used to reliably identify abnormal events. This report fulfills the FY-2024 scope of WBS#1.15.8.3 activity, “ANL0120 – Predictive Analyses of PRD as function of deformation”. The PRD concept is described in Sections 2. Additional effort in refining the methodology for core bowing modeling is performed in Sections 3. Then, two verification exercises are proposed in Section 4 to benchmark these coefficients based on direct neutronic-only calculations and on dynamic core transient simulations. Finally, the PRD approach is assessed for the detection of several unexpected events, such as primary flow perturbation or improper fuel loading, in Section 5.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Comparison of Pre‐Construction and Operational Wake Loss Estimates for Land‐Based Wind Plants

The overall bias between pre‐construction energy yield assessment (EYA) estimates of wind plant energy production and the achieved operational production is improving in the wind industry, but uncertainty remains high for individual wind plants. Wake effects within wind plants are one of the largest sources of energy loss considered in the EYA process, and previous work shows wake loss estimates to be a major source of disagreement among wind energy consultants who perform EYAs. To better understand the accuracy of wake loss predictions, we compare overall operational wake loss estimates based on supervisory control and data acquisition data to pre‐construction estimates provided by six wind energy consultants for five land‐based wind plants in North America. By augmenting existing approaches for quantifying operational wake losses, we estimate wake losses during the period of record for which operational data are available as well as the expected long‐term wake losses, based on historical reanalysis weather data, to which the EYA estimates are compared. To account for power variations at different turbine locations caused by terrain‐induced wind resource heterogeneity, we correct the operational wake loss estimates using predicted freestream wind speed variations from the Wind Systems Engineering Reynolds‐averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) tool. We identify long‐term corrected operational wake losses between 1.9% and 6.4% for the five plants, with a mean loss of 4%. For the project deemed most acceptable for operational wake loss assessment, which is located in the simplest terrain and isolated from neighboring plants, the mean EYA wake loss estimate is within 0.7 percentage points of the operational value of 6.4%. For most of the remaining plants, results suggest that wake losses are generally overpredicted by 2.6–6.3 percentage points. However, operational wake losses may be underestimated for many of these projects because of spatial wind resource variations not captured by the RANS model, external wake effects that are unaccounted for in the estimation process, and wind plant blockage effects. To better understand factors that contribute to the observed wake losses, we investigate operational wake losses as a function of wind direction and wind speed. As expected, wake losses are generally concentrated near wind directions that are aligned with rows of closely spaced turbines and at below‐rated wind speeds; however, for some projects, the energy produced by the wind plant exceeds the estimated potential energy of the plant without wake interactions for certain wind directions and wind speeds, suggesting inaccurate assumptions in the wake loss estimation method for those plants. Lastly, we compare predicted and operational wake losses for individual wind turbines, finding that even when overall wake losses are predicted accurately, large uncertainty exists at the turbine level.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Approach to Evaluating Reorganization Energies of Interfacial Electrochemical Reactions

Reaction rate coefficients for electron-transfer processes at the electrode–electrolyte interface are commonly estimated by using the Butler–Volmer equation, but their values are inaccurate beyond a few tenths of volts of overpotential. The Marcus–Hush–Chidsey (MHC) formalism yields correct asymptotic behavior of the rate coefficients vs applied overpotential but has complex dependencies on the redox system’s intrinsic parameters, which can be difficult to model or measure. In this work, we bridge the two kinetics formalisms to estimate the reorganization energy, one of the important parameters for the MHC formalism, and investigate its dependence on other intrinsic parameters such as activation barriers, electronic coupling strength, and the density of states of the electrode surface. We examine the sensitivity of the reorganization energy to these parameters, establish some general relationships for accurately predicting rate coefficients using the MHC formalism over a wide range of applied overpotentials, and compare this approach to calculating MHC rate constants with other empirical approaches for the mechanisms of CO 2 reduction on different metal electrode surfaces.

Butler−Volmer↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-temperature phonon-mediated superconductivity in monolayer Mg 2 B 4 C 2

A two-dimensional material – Mg 2 B 4 C 2 , belonging to the family of the conventional superconductor MgB 2 , is theoretically predicted to exhibit superconductivity with critical temperature T c estimated in the 47–48 K range (predicted using the McMillian-Allen-Dynes formula) without any tuning of external parameters such as doping, strain, or substrate-induced effects. The origin of such a high intrinsic T c is ascribed to the presence of strong electron-phonon coupling and large density of states at the Fermi level. This system is obtained after replacing the chemically active boron-boron surface layers in a MgB 2 slab by chemically inactive boron-carbon layers. Hence, the surfaces of this material are inert. Our calculations confirm the stability of 2D Mg 2 B 4 C 2 . We also find that the key features of this material remain essentially unchanged when its thickness is increased by modestly increasing the number of inner MgB 2 layers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

First use of an InSb crystal for x-ray imaging spectroscopy of highly ionized tungsten in the Wendelstein 7-X stellarator

Advances in time and space resolved measurements of highly charged states of tungsten (W) through x-ray imaging spectroscopy have enabled investigation of impurity transport in the Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) stellarator. The high-resolution x-ray imaging spectrometer (HR-XIS) system on W7-X utilizes the Bragg diffraction properties of a set of multiple crystals to measure a range of impurity emission lines within sections of the 1–7 Å wavelength range, including transitions of W. A new indium–antimonide crystal has been installed on the HR-XIS system to allow viewing of the 5.5–6.2 Å region focusing on emissions of W. Consequently, many bright W emission lines from W 40+ to W 47+ were observed in this wavelength range, both in plasmas with injected W and in those with only intrinsic W impurity sources, showing the high sensitivity of the diagnostic. Three W 46+ emissions correspond in wavelength and intensity with calculated photon emissivity coefficients and can be exploited for W transport and concentration applications in plasmas with T e ≳ 2.1 keV. Here, an estimate of the core W density behavior in two separate turbulence-reduced ‘high-performance’ (HP) discharges on W7-X is done using the 5.6893 Å W 46+ line. The n W behavior in HP scenarios can be explained by previous experimental results and neoclassical predictions.

XICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Calculation of ion–ion mutual neutralization rate constants using Landau–Zener theory coupled with trajectory simulations for Ar + –Cl − , Br − , I −

In this computational study, we self-consistently calculate the rate constants of mutual neutralization reactions by incorporating the electron transfer probability, using Landau–Zener state transition theory with inputs derived from ab initio quantum chemistry calculations, into classical trajectory simulations. Electronic structure calculations are done using correlation consistent basis sets with multi-reference configuration interaction to map all the molecular electronic states below the ion-dissociation limit as a function of the distance between the reacting species. Our electronic structure calculations have been significantly improved from our previous work through improved selection of molecular electronic configurations maintaining a fine grid of 1a 0 over a wide range of bond lengths and accurate treatment of spin–orbit couplings. Non-adiabatic coupling matrix elements are calculated with the three-point central difference method near each avoided crossing to estimate the exact crossing point R x and coupling parameter H if , which are inputs to the multi-channel Landau–Zener theory to calculate the electron transition probability. Our approach is applied to estimate the mutual neutralization rate constants for the following ion pairs: Ar + –Cl − , Ar + –Br − , Ar + –I − at ∼133 Pa. Furthermore, our predictions are compared against the experimental data reported. It is seen that the improvement in the electronic structure calculation results in excellent agreement between the simulation results and the available experimental data to within a factor of ∼2 or ∼±50%.

Complete-active space self-consistent field↗

DOE OSTI2020

Reconstruction and uncertainty quantification of lattice Hamiltonian model parameters from observations of microscopic degrees of freedom

The emergence of scanning probe and electron beam imaging techniques has allowed quantitative studies of atomic structure and minute details of electronic and vibrational structure on the level of individual atomic units. These microscopic descriptors, in turn, can be associated with local symmetry breaking phenomena, representing the stochastic manifestation of the underpinning generative physical model. In this work, we explore the reconstruction of exchange integrals in the Hamiltonian for a lattice model with two competing interactions from observations of microscopic degrees of freedom and establish the uncertainties and reliability of such analysis in a broad parameter-temperature space. In contrast to other approaches, we specifically specify a loss function inherent to thermodynamic systems and utilize it to estimate uncertainty in simulated realizations of different models. As an ancillary task, we develop a machine learning approach based on histogram clustering to predict phase diagrams efficiently using a reduced descriptor space. We further demonstrate that reconstruction is possible well above the phase transition and in the regions of parameter space when the macroscopic ground state of the system is poorly defined due to frustrated interactions. This suggests that this approach can be applied to the traditionally complex problems of condensed matter physics such as ferroelectric relaxors and morphotropic phase boundary systems, spin and cluster glasses, and quantum systems once the local descriptors linked to the relevant physical behaviors are known.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2022

Monitoring of Temperature Measurements for Different Flow Regimes in Water and Galinstan with Long Short-Term Memory Networks and Transfer Learning of Sensors

Temperature sensing is one of the most common measurements of a nuclear reactor monitoring system. The coolant fluid flow in a reactor core depends on the reactor power state. We investigated the monitoring and estimation of the thermocouple time series using machine learning for a range of flow regimes. Measurement data were obtained, in two separate experiments, in a flow loop filled with water and with liquid metal Galinstan. We developed long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for sensor predictions by training on the sensor’s own prior history, and transfer learning LSTM (TL-LSTM) by training on a correlated sensor’s prior history. Sensor cross-correlations were identified by calculating the Pearson correlation coefficient of the time series. The accuracy of LSTM and TL-LSTM predictions of temperature was studied as a function of Reynolds number (Re). The root-mean-square error (RMSE) for the test segment of time series of each sensor was shown to linearly increase with Re for both water and Galinstan fluids. Using linear correlations, we estimated the range of values of Re for which RMSE is smaller than the thermocouple measurement uncertainty. For both water and Galinstan fluids, we showed that both LSTM and TL-LSTM provide reliable estimations of temperature for typical flow regimes in a nuclear reactor. The LSTM runtime was shown to be substantially smaller than the data acquisition rate, which allows for performing estimation and validation of sensor measurements in real time.

Pantopoulou, Stella↗

DOE OSTI2021

Understanding Type Ia Supernova Distance Biases by Simulating Spectral Variations

In the next decade, transient searches from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will increase the sample of known Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from ~10 3 to 10 5 . With this reduction of statistical uncertainties on cosmological measurements, new methods are needed to reduce systematic uncertainties. Here, characterizing the underlying spectroscopic evolution of SN Ia remains a major systematic uncertainty in current cosmological analyses, motivating a new simulation tool for the next era of SN Ia cosmology: Build Your Own Spectral Energy Distribution (byosed). byosed is used within the SNANA framework to simulate light curves by applying spectral variations to model SEDs, enabling flexible testing of possible systematic shifts in SN Ia distance measurements. We test the framework by comparing a nominal Roman SN Ia survey simulation using a baseline SED model to simulations using SEDs perturbed with byosed, and investigating the impact of ignoring specific SED features in the analysis. These features include semiempirical models of two possible, predicted relationships: between SN ejecta velocity and light-curve observables, and a redshift-dependent relationship between SN Hubble residuals and host-galaxy mass. We analyze each byosed simulation using the SALT2 and BEAMS with Bias Corrections framework, and estimate changes in the measured value of the dark-energy equation-of-state parameter, w. We find a difference of Δw = –0.023 for SN velocity and Δw = 0.021 for redshift-evolving host mass when compared to simulations without these features. By using byosed for SN Ia cosmology simulations, future analyses (e.g., the Rubin and Roman SN Ia samples) will have greater flexibility to constrain or reduce such SN Ia modeling uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Film Cooling Performance Prediction for Air and Supercritical CO 2

The current study explores the possibility of cooling the vanes and blades of a direct-fired sCO 2 turbine using film cooling. The operating conditions of a direct-fired sCO 2 cycle and thermophysical properties of the fluid at those conditions can alter the flow field characteristics of the coolant jet and its mixing with the mainstream. Very little information is present in the literature regarding the performance of film cooling geometries employing supercritical CO 2 . The objective of this study is to estimate the resulting film cooling effectiveness while also capturing the effects of the crossflow-to-mainstream velocity ratio on the coolant jet. Herein, a computational fluid dynamic model is used to study the coolant jet exiting a cylindrical hole located on a flat plate, with the coolant fed by an internal channel. Steady-state Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations were solved along with the (shear-stress transport) SST k–ω model to provide the turbulence closure. The operating conditions for the direct-fired sCO 2 turbine are obtained using an in-house Cooled Turbine Model. Numerical predictions revealed that the crossflow effects and jet lift-off were more pronounced in the case of sCO 2 when compared to air. Spatial distribution of flow field and cooling effectiveness are presented at different operating conditions.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Detectability of QCD phase transitions in binary neutron star mergers: Bayesian inference with the next generation gravitational wave detectors

We study the detectability of postmerger QCD phase transitions in neutron star binaries with next-generation gravitational-wave detectors Cosmic Explorer and Einstein Telescope. We perform numerical relativity simulations of neutron star mergers with equations of state that include a quark deconfinement phase transition through either a Gibbs or Maxwell construction. These are followed by Bayesian parameter estimation of the associated gravitational-wave signals using the nrpmw waveform model, with priors inferred from the analysis of the inspiral signal. We assess the ability of the model to measure the postmerger peak frequency $f$$^{peak}_{2}$ and identify aspects that should be improved in the model. We show that, even at postmerger signal to noise ratios as low as 10, the model can distinguish (at the 90% level) $f$$^{peak}_{2}$ between binaries with and without a phase transition in most cases. Phase-transition induced deviations in the $f$$^{peak}_{2}$ from the predictions of equation-of-state insensitive relations can also be detected if they exceed 1.6⁢σ. Our results suggest that next-generation gravitational wave detectors can measure phase transition effects in binary neutron star mergers. Furthermore, unless the phase transition is “strong,” disentangling it from other hadronic physics uncertainties will require significant theory improvements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Prediction of Power Measurements Using Adaptive Filters

With the advent of smart grid concept, Internet of Things (IoT) and the deployment of smart meters, the cyberattack threats on power networks have increased due to the use of communication systems that can be accessed by adversaries. Attackers will have the ability to manipulate the outcomes of smart meters which in turn influence the core application of Energy Management System 9EMS): State Estimation (SE). Bad data analytic tools may fail to detect some attacks into measurements. Meanwhile, Machine Learning (ML) solutions have been proposed for detecting False Data Injection (FDI) attacks. However, there is a lack of ML time-series solutions presented in the state-of-the-art that is yet to be complex. In signal processing, time-series solutions do not only consider the signal, but also the statistics of the signal over time. Therefore, in this paper, a machine learning for time-series solutions is presented as an application to model the measurements of the power grid that are used in SE. The presented model takes into account adaptive linear and non-linear filters: Finite Impulse Response (FIR), and Infinite Impulse Response (IIR). The presented models are implemented and performed on the IEEE-118 bus system. The results indicate the advantage of applying those filters over the state-of-the-art machine learning solutions.

Hamad, Khaled↗

DOE OSTI2023

Real-time estimation of the electron temperature profile in DIII-D by leveraging neural-network surrogate models

Control of both the magnitude and the shape of tokamak profiles will be necessary to achieve stable, high-performance plasmas. In order to reject disturbances in real time, feedback-control algorithms rely on accurate real-time knowledge of the plasma state. When diagnostics alone are insufficient, either because they are limited in number or their measurements are too noisy, observers can be used to combine diagnostic data with a response model to provide a better estimation of different plasma properties. An observer has been developed to estimate the electron temperature profile in real time using both diagnostic data from the Thomson scattering system and a model based on the electron heat transport equation describing the evolution of the electron temperature profile. Here, neural network surrogate models are leveraged to help improve the overall model prediction while staying within computation time constraints for real-time use. The observer algorithm is shown in offline tests to produce smooth profiles that are consistent with both the diagnostic data and the electron heat transport equation. When implemented into the real-time plasma control system, this observer will provide valuable information on the electron temperature profile to many potential feedback-control applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗