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At least 343 records · Page 19

An Efficient Three-Dimensional CFD-Based Numerical Wave Tank for a Wave Energy Converter in Extreme Irregular Waves: Preprint

A numerical wave tank approach for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling of an extreme irregular seastate is presented. The technique couples a potential flow solution with a CFD solver for more efficient numerical predictions. This method has recently become attractive both for the research community and the industry working with offshore structures. The model is used to determine the response of a submerged pressure differential wave energy converter (WEC) in a fully nonlinear irregular wave condition using the high fidelity CFD code, STAR-CCM+. Potential flow based numerical models are commonly used to predict motions and performance of wave energy converters. Wave kinematics can deviate from potential flow predictions for extreme wave conditions; the excitation loads on an absorber can also be increasingly influenced by viscous effects, not captured in engineering level models. In these extreme conditions, a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes CFD model can better predict motions and loads for a WEC. Long time series with varying random seed numbers can be used to identify singular extreme wave events from a stochastic irregular sea state. This approach simulates a more realistic wave series for a given sea state than a regular wave or a focused wave. However, it is computationally infeasible to run these long time series for three-dimensional (3D) CFD simulations. In this work, two-dimensional (2D) CFD simulations with a long domain allow the full development of an extreme nonlinear wave condition. The results are used to identify extreme events from a 50-year storm condition for the PacWave site off the coast of Oregon. A relatively short time window including this extreme event is then mapped to a 3D simulation using a user defined wave methodology. Convergence studies for domain length, wave forcing lengths, and time before the extreme event were conducted.

cfd↗

Determining Multi-Component Phase Diagrams with Desired Characteristics Using Active Learning

Herein, we demonstrate how to predict and experimentally validate phase diagrams for multi-component systems from a high-dimensional virtual space of all possible phase diagrams involving several elements based on small existing experimental data. The experimental data for bulk phases for known systems represents a sampling from this space, and screening the space allows multi-component phase diagrams with given design criteria to be built. This approach uses machine learning methods to predict phase diagrams and Bayesian experimental design to minimize experiments for refinement and validation, all within an active learning loop. The approach is proven by predicting and synthesizing the ferroelectric ceramic system (1-ω)(Ba 0.61 Ca 0.28 Sr 0.11 TiO 3 )-ω(BaTi 0.888 Zr 0.0616 Sn 0.0028 Hf 0.0476 O 3 ) with a relatively high transition temperature and triple point, as well as the NiTi-based pseudo-binary phase diagram (1-ω)(Ti 0.309 Ni 0.485 Hf 0.20 Zr 0.006 )-ω(Ti 0.309 Ni 0.485 Hf 0.07 Zr 0.068 Nb 0.068 ) designed for high transition temperature (ω ≤ 1). Each phase diagram is validated and optimized through only three new experiments. The complexity of these compounds is beyond the reach of today’s computational methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Machine learning methods for probabilistic locked-mode predictors in tokamak plasmas

A rotating tokamak plasma can interact resonantly with the external helical magnetic perturbations, also known as error fields. This can lead to locking and then to disruptions. We leverage machine learning (ML) methods to predict the locking events. We use a coupled third-order nonlinear ordinary differential equation model to represent the interaction of the magnetic perturbation and the plasma rotation with the error field. This model is sufficient to describe qualitatively the locking and unlocking bifurcations. Here, we explore using ML algorithms with the simulation data and experimental data, focusing on the methods that can be used with sparse datasets. These methods lead to the possibility of the avoidance of locking in real-time operations. We describe the operational space in terms of two control parameters: the magnitude of the error field and the rotation frequency associated with the momentum source that maintains the plasma rotation. The outcomes are quan- tified by order parameters that completely characterize the state, whether locked or unlocked. We use unsupervised ML methods to classify locked/unlocked states and note the usefulness of a certain normalization of the order parameters. Three supervised ML classifiers are used in suite to estimate the probability of locking in the region of control parameter space with hysteresis, i.e., the set of control parameters for which both locked and unlocked states can exist. The results show that a neural network gives the best estimate of the locking probability. An analogy of the present locking model with the van der Waals equation of state is also provided.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

An Efficient Three-Dimensional CFD-Based Numerical Wave Tank for a Wave Energy Converter in Extreme Irregular Waves

A numerical wave tank approach for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling of an extreme irregular seastate is presented. The technique couples a potential flow solution with a CFD solver for more efficient numerical predictions. This method has recently become attractive both for the research community and the industry working with offshore structures. The model is used to determine the response of a submerged pressure differential wave energy converter (WEC) in a fully nonlinear irregular wave condition using the high-fidelity CFD code, STAR-CCM+. Potential flow based numerical models are commonly used to predict motions and performance of wave energy converters. Wave kinematics can deviate from potential flow predictions for extreme wave conditions; the excitation loads on an absorber can also be increasingly influenced by viscous effects, not predicted by potential flow engineering level models. In these extreme conditions, a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes CFD model can better predict motions and loads for a WEC. Long time series with varying random seed numbers can be used to identify singular extreme wave events from a stochastic irregular sea state. This approach simulates a more realistic wave series for a given sea state than a regular wave or a focused wave. However, it is computationally infeasible to run these long time series for three-dimensional (3D) CFD simulations. In this work, two-dimensional (2D) CFD simulations with a long domain allow the full development of an extreme nonlinear wave condition. The results are used to identify extreme events from a 50-year storm condition for the PacWave site off the coast of Oregon. A relatively short time window including this extreme event is then mapped to a 3D simulation using a user defined wave methodology. Convergence studies for domain length, wave forcing lengths, and time before the extreme event were conducted.

CFD↗

Geometric phase in coupled cluster theory

It has been well-established that the topography around conical intersections between excited electronic states is incorrectly described by coupled cluster and many other single reference theories (the intersections are “defective”). Despite this, we show both analytically and numerically that the geometric phase effect (GPE) is correctly reproduced upon traversing a path around a defective excited-state conical intersection (CI) in coupled cluster theory. The theoretical analysis is carried out by using a non-Hermitian generalization of the linear vibronic coupling approach. Interestingly, the approach qualitatively explains the characteristic (incorrect) shape of the defective CIs and CI seams. Moreover, the validity of the approach and the presence of the GPE indicate that defective CIs are local (and not global) artifacts. This implies that a sufficiently accurate coupled cluster method could predict nuclear dynamics, including geometric phase effects, as long as the nuclear wavepacket never gets too close to the conical intersections.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Many-body expansion based machine learning models for octahedral transition metal complexes

Abstract Graph-based machine learning (ML) models for material properties show great potential to accelerate virtual high-throughput screening of large chemical spaces. However, in their simplest forms, graph-based models do not include any 3D information and are unable to distinguish stereoisomers such as those arising from different orderings of ligands around a metal center in coordination complexes. In this work we present a modification to revised autocorrelation descriptors, a molecular graph featurization method, for predicting spin state dependent properties of octahedral transition metal complexes (TMCs). Inspired by analytical semi-empirical models for TMCs, the new modeling strategy is based on the many-body expansion (MBE) and allows one to tune the captured stereoisomer information by changing the truncation order of the MBE. We present the necessary modifications to include this approach in two commonly used ML methods, kernel ridge regression and feed-forward neural networks. On a test set composed of all possible isomers of binary TMCs, the best MBE models achieve mean absolute errors (MAEs) of 2.75 kcal mol −1 on spin-splitting energies and 0.26 eV on frontier orbital energy gaps, a 30%–40% reduction in error compared to models based on our previous approach. We also observe improved generalization to previously unseen ligands where the best-performing models exhibit MAEs of 4.00 kcal mol −1 (i.e. a 0.73 kcal mol −1 reduction) on the spin-splitting energies and 0.53 eV (i.e. a 0.10 eV reduction) on the frontier orbital energy gaps. Because the new approach incorporates insights from electronic structure theory, such as ligand additivity relationships, these models exhibit systematic generalization from homoleptic to heteroleptic complexes, allowing for efficient screening of TMC search spaces.

Meyer, Ralf (ORCID:0000000322360261)↗

Imitating the “breeder's eye”: Predicting grain yield from measurements of non‐yield traits

Abstract Plant breeding relies on information gathered from field trials to select promising new crop varieties for release to farmers and to develop genomic prediction models that can enhance the efficiency of genetic improvement in future breeding cycles. However, generating the genetic marker data required to apply genomic prediction at the early stages of a breeding program remains costly for many public‐sector breeding programs as well as for many plant breeders operating in developing countries. As the pace of climate change intensifies, the time lag of developing and deploying new crop varieties requires plant breeders to make selection decisions without knowing the future environments those crop varieties will encounter in farmers’ fields. Therefore, both lower cost and higher accuracy methods for prediction of crop performance are essential for creating and maintaining resilient agricultural systems in the latter half of the 21 st century. To address this challenge, we conducted linked yield trials of 752 public maize ( Zea mays ) genotypes in two distinct environments. We developed and trained a phenotypic prediction model to predict yield from manually scored plant traits. The phenotypic prediction approach we employed outperformed genomic prediction in predicting yields in a second environment, with 8.7%–63% higher R 2 and 4%–13% less root mean square error than the genomic prediction. The phenotypic prediction has the potential to be applied to a wider range of breeding programs, including those that lack the resources to genotype large populations, such as programs in the developing world, breeding programs for specialty crops, and public sector programs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Optimizing accuracy and efficacy in data-driven materials discovery for the solar production of hydrogen

The production of hydrogen fuels, via water splitting, is of practical relevance for meeting global energy needs and mitigating the environmental consequences of fossil-fuel-based transportation. Water photoelectrolysis has been proposed as a viable approach for generating hydrogen, provided that stable and inexpensive photocatalysts with conversion efficiencies over 10% can be discovered, synthesized at scale, and successfully deployed. While a number of first-principles studies have focused on the data-driven discovery of photocatalysts, in the absence of systematic experimental validation, the success rate of these predictions may be limited. We address this problem by developing a screening procedure with co-validation between experiment and theory to expedite the synthesis, characterization, and testing of the computationally predicted, most desirable materials. Here, starting with 70 150 compounds in the Materials Project database, the proposed protocol yielded 71 candidate photocatalysts, 11 of which were synthesized as single-phase materials. Experiments confirmed hydrogen generation and favorable band alignment for 6 of the 11 compounds, with the most promising ones belonging to the families of alkali and alkaline-earth indates and orthoplumbates. This study shows the accuracy of a nonempirical, Hubbard-corrected density-functional theory method to predict band gaps and band offsets at a fraction of the computational cost of hybrid functionals, and outlines an effective strategy to identify photocatalysts for solar hydrogen generation.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Performance evaluation of automated data-driven feature extraction and selection methods for practical and scalable building energy consumption prediction models

Here, this study quantifies the impact of automated feature engineering methods (feature extraction and selection) on the quality and accuracy of machine learning models that predict building energy consumption. The case study compares model performance for three main scenarios: baseline (no feature extraction and selection), feature extraction only, and feature extraction combined with feature selection (filter and/or wrapper methods) for fully trained machine learning models for 200 metered/sub-metered energy measurements across 118 real buildings. For consistency, the same machine learning model architecture (a black box deep learning neural network with probabilistic forecast output) was used for all scenarios. Based on results, all feature engineering methods provided noticeable prediction accuracy improvements (e.g., 29%-68% median prediction improvement) compared to baseline scenarios. However, in this application, feature selection methods provide little practical value due to their limited performance gains and high computational cost. Smarter algorithm development supported by better computational environments will be needed before feature selection methods can reliably and efficiently improve predictive model performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Partitioning net carbon dioxide fluxes into photosynthesis and respiration using neural networks

The eddy covariance (EC) technique is used to measure the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 between ecosystems and the atmosphere, offering a unique opportunity to study ecosystem responses to climate change. NEE is the difference between the total CO 2 release due to all respiration processes (RECO), and the gross carbon uptake by photosynthesis (GPP). These two gross CO 2 fluxes are derived from EC measurements by applying partitioning methods that rely on physiologically based functional relationships with a limited number of environmental drivers. However, the partitioning methods applied in the global FLUXNET network of EC observations do not account for the multiple co-acting factors that modulate GPP and RECO flux dynamics. To overcome this limitation, we developed a hybrid data-driven approach based on combined neural networks (NN C-part ). NN C-part incorporates process knowledge by introducing a photosynthetic response based on the light-use efficiency (LUE) concept, and uses a comprehensive dataset of soil and micrometeorological variables as fluxes drivers. We applied the method to 36 sites from the FLUXNET2015 dataset and found a high consistency in the results with those derived from other standard partitioning methods for both GPP (R 2 > .94) and RECO (R 2 > .8). High consistency was also found for (a) the diurnal and seasonal patterns of fluxes and (b) the ecosystem functional responses. NNC-part performed more realistic than the traditional methods for predicting additional patterns of gross CO 2 fluxes, such as: (a) the GPP response to VPD, (b) direct effects of air temperature on GPP dynamics, (c) hysteresis in the diel cycle of gross CO 2 fluxes, (d) the sensitivity of LUE to the diffuse to direct radiation ratio, and (e) the post rain respiration pulse after a long dry period. In conclusion, NN C-part is a valid data-driven approach to provide GPP and RECO estimates and complementary to the existing partitioning methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nonempirical Prediction of the Length-Dependent Ionization Potential in Molecular Chains

The ionization potential of molecular chains is well-known to be a tunable nanoscale property that exhibits clear quantum confinement effects. State-of-the-art methods can accurately predict the ionization potential in the small molecule limit and in the solid-state limit, but for intermediate, nanosized systems prediction of the evolution of the electronic structure between the two limits is more difficult. Recently, optimal tuning of range-separated hybrid functionals has emerged as a highly accurate method for predicting ionization potentials. This was first achieved for molecules using the ionization potential theorem (IPT) and more recently extended to solid-state systems, based on an ansatz that generalizes the IPT to the removal of charge from a localized Wannier function. Here, we study one-dimensional molecular chains of increasing size, from the monomer limit to the infinite polymer limit using this approach. By comparing our results with other localization-based methods and where available with experiment, we demonstrate that Wannier-localization-based optimal tuning is highly accurate in predicting ionization potentials for any chain length, including the nanoscale regime.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Survey of Modeling and Simulation Techniques for Advanced Manufacturing Technologies Volume II – Predicting Material Performance from Material Microstructure

This report describes the current state of modeling and simulation techniques for predicting the properties of materials fabricated with advanced manufacturing techniques, given the initial microstructure of the material. The report includes a literature survey and a gap analysis outlining and prioritizing key issues in applying these modeling and simulation techniques to nuclear reactor structural materials. The discussion covers both physics-based and data-driven modeling techniques and includes a broad range of manufacturing techniques and materials that may have future nuclear applications. This report is the second in a two-part series, with the first report covering modeling and simulation methods for predicting the initial, as-manufactured structure of advanced manufacturing materials, given a description of the process. Both reports focus on a set of manufacturing technologies likely to be applied to reactor structural components. Taken together, the two reports provide a complete summary of the current state of processing-structure-properties models for advanced manufacturing as well as a survey of applications to reactor structural materials

42 ENGINEERING↗

Precision engineering of biological function with large-scale measurements and machine learning

As synthetic biology expands and accelerates into real-world applications, methods for quantitatively and precisely engineering biological function become increasingly relevant. This is particularly true for applications that require programmed sensing to dynamically regulate gene expression in response to stimuli. However, few methods have been described that can engineer biological sensing with any level of quantitative precision. Here, we present two complementary methods for precision engineering of genetic sensors: in silico selection and machine-learning-enabled forward engineering. Both methods use a large-scale genotype-phenotype dataset to identify DNA sequences that encode sensors with quantitatively specified dose response. First, we show that in silico selection can be used to engineer sensors with a wide range of dose-response curves. To demonstrate in silico selection for precise, multi-objective engineering, we simultaneously tune a genetic sensor’s sensitivity (EC 50 ) and saturating output to meet quantitative specifications. In addition, we engineer sensors with inverted dose-response and specified EC 50 . Second, we demonstrate a machine-learning-enabled approach to predictively engineer genetic sensors with mutation combinations that are not present in the large-scale dataset. We show that the interpretable machine learning results can be combined with a biophysical model to engineer sensors with improved inverted dose-response curves.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Optimally tuned starting point for single-shot GW calculations of solids

The dependence of ab initio many-body perturbation theory within the $\textit{GW}$ approximation on the eigensystem used in calculating quasiparticle corrections limits this method's predictive power. Here, we investigate the accuracy of the recently developed Wannier-localized optimally tuned screened range-separated hybrid (WOT-SRSH) functional as a generalized Kohn-Sham starting point for single-shot $\textit{GW}$ ($G_0W_0$) calculations for a range of semiconductors and insulators. Comparison to calculations based on well-established functionals, namely, PBE, PBE0, and HSE, as well as to self-consistent GW schemes and to experiment, shows that band gaps computed via $G_0W_0$@WOT-SRSH have a level of precision and accuracy that is comparable to that of more advanced methods such as quasiparticle self-consistent $\textit{GW}$ and eigenvalue self-consistent $\textit{GW}$. In this work, we also find that $G_0W_0$@WOT-SRSH improves the description of states deeper in the valence band manifold. Finally, we show that $G_0W_0$@WOT-SRSH significantly reduces the sensitivity of computed band gaps to ambiguities in the underlying WOT-SRSH tuning procedure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Predictive Inverse Model for Advective Heat Transfer in a Short–Circuited Fracture: Dimensional Analysis, Machine Learning, and Field Demonstration

Identifying fluid flow maldistribution in planar geometries is a well–established problem in subsurface science/engineering. Of particular importance to the thermal performance of enhanced (or “engineered”) geothermal systems is identifying the existence of nonuniform (i.e., heterogeneous) permeability and subsequently predicting advective heat transfer. Here, machine learning via a genetic algorithm (GA) identifies the spatial distribution of an unknown permeability field in a two–dimensional Hele–Shaw geometry (i.e., parallel plates). The inverse problem is solved by minimizing the L2 norm between simulated residence time distribution (RTD) and measurements of an inert tracer breakthrough curve (BTC) (C–Dot nanoparticle). Principal component analysis (PCA) of spatially correlated permeability fields enabled reduction of the parameter space by more than a factor of 10 and restricted the inverse search to reservoir–scale permeability variations. Thermal experiments and tracer tests conducted at the mesoscale Altona Field Laboratory (AFL) demonstrate that the method accurately predicts the effects of extreme flow channeling on heat transfer in a single bedding–plane rock fracture. However, this is only true when the permeability distributions provide adequate matches to both tracer RTD and frictional pressure loss. Without good agreement to frictional pressure loss, it is still possible to match a simulated RTD to measurements, but subsequent predictions of heat transfer are grossly inaccurate. Here, the results of this study suggest that it is possible to anticipate the thermal effects of flow maldistribution, but only if both simulated RTDs and frictional pressure loss between fluid inlets and outlets are in good agreement with measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Cluster-Graph Fingerprinting: A Framework for Quantitative Analysis of Machine-Learned Interatomic Model Training and Simulation Data

Machine-learned interatomic models represent a significant advancement in simulation methods, extending the predictive ability of first-principles methods to previously inaccessible length and time scales. However, the data-driven nature of these models can lead to difficult-to-detect errors that can compromise prediction accuracy. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel fingerprinting approach based on the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) ML-IAM graph-based descriptor. Our strategy enables efficient and statistically rigorous analysis of system configurations used in ML-IAM training and those generated by their application, e.g., in molecular dynamics simulations. We demonstrate that these fingerprints can effectively assess novelty of a configuration relative to an existing data set and determine dissimilarity among individual configurations, which are two key tasks in workflows for active learning-based ML-IAM training, data set curation, and on-the-fly uncertainty quantification.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Application of artificial intelligence methods in the international roughness index prediction of rigid and composite pavements: a systematic review

The International Roughness Index (IRI) is a widely adopted metric for quantifying pavement roughness, directly influencing vehicle safety, ride comfort, and overall roadway performance. In recent years, the use of Machine Learning (ML) models for IRI prediction has gained momentum, with the goal of improving the allocation of maintenance and rehabilitation resources by enabling accurate assessments of pavement conditions. Most prior reviews, however, have concentrated on flexible pavements, leaving a notable gap regarding rigid and composite pavements. To address this gap, the present study conducts a systematic review of Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods applied to IRI prediction for rigid and composite pavements. Literature published between 2004 and 2025 is synthesized to highlight prevailing trends, methodological contributions, and directions for future research. Particular attention is given to the types of models employed, the datasets used for training and validation, and the role of input variables and data-processing strategies. Across the included studies, ensemble learning methods (especially gradient boosting variants such as XGBoost), artificial neural networks, and hybrid architectures frequently achieved high predictive skill, with several models reporting test-set coefficients of determination approaching 0.9–0.96, indicating strong potential for capturing the influence of traffic, pavement structure, and climatic factors. Since these results are obtained from heterogeneous datasets and evaluation protocols, they are interpreted qualitatively rather than as strict cross-study rankings. Analysis of input variables revealed that pavement age and initial IRI were included in 91% (21 of 23) and 78% (18 of 23) of studies, respectively. Climatic variables such as the freezing index appeared in 57% (13 of 23), while traffic-related factors were considered in 65% (15 of 23). The findings underscore the importance of standardized, high-quality datasets, such as those from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) program, along with data consistency, model interpretability, computational efficiency, and replicability in enhancing IRI prediction. Future research should focus on incorporating input variable selection techniques to identify the most influential predictors, thereby improving accuracy and robustness. Integrating these approaches with advanced non-linear data-driven models, coupled with robust hyperparameter optimization, holds considerable promise for strengthening the reliability of IRI prediction and supporting resilient pavement management strategies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Predicting and Controlling Corrosion (Abbreviated Final Report)

Corrosion accumulates significant replacement costs in the transportation, utility, manufacturing, and infrastructure sectors. It also underpins several of LLNL’s core missions in stockpile stewardship, defense, and energy security. Whereas most corrosion and aging models are empirically parameterized to describe well-defined conditions late in the reaction, the factors that determine the early stages of corrosion—during which mitigation could be most impactful— are poorly understood. This project addressed the critical need for new approaches to predict the kinetics of corrosion initiation based on firm physical and chemical understanding. The activities encompassed degradation of relevant metals in both hydrogen-rich and environmental corrosion scenarios. The team integrated state-of-the-art multiscale simulation, in situ characterization, and data science within three technical thrusts: hydriding of Ti alloys; aqueous corrosion of Al and Ni-Cr alloys; and degradation of additively manufactured 316L stainless steel. In each case, novel capabilities were developed to identify and track the impacts of key atomistic, compositional, and microstructural features on the metal systems. For hydriding, protocols were developed to tightly integrate multiscale models, advanced multimodal characterization, and machine learning to determine how hydrogen interacts with native passivating surface oxides and nucleates new undesired phases, shedding new light on the critical role of grain boundaries, interfaces, and atomically disordered regions. For aqueous corrosion, the project demonstrated methods to predict dissolution rates of metal surfaces in corrosive solutions, to measure and understand microstructural and grain orientation effects on corrosion susceptibility, and to investigate competing growth and dissolution kinetics of surface oxides. For additively manufactured metals, analysis using state-of-the-art microscopy techniques revealed the role of specific heterogeneities invoked during laser processing, including cellular structure, dislocations, and precipitates, on corrosion susceptibility. In addition to new capabilities and understanding, the project provided an avenue for workforce development, as well as key partnerships with stakeholders in corrosion science.

08 HYDROGEN↗