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At least 343 records · Page 19

Model and observation comparison of the universal time and IMF by dependence of the ionospheric polar hole

The polar ionospheric F-region often exhibits regions of marked density depletion. These depletions have been observed by a variety of polar orbiting ionospheric satellites over a full range of solar cycle, season, magnetic activity, and universal time (UT). An empirical model of these observations has recently been developed to describe the polar depletion dependence on these parameters. Specifically, the dependence has been defined as a function of F10.7 (solar), summer or winter, Kp (magnetic), and UT. Polar cap depletions have also been predicted /1, 2/ and are, hence, present in physical models of the high latitude ionosphere. Using the Utah State University Time Dependent Ionospheric Model (TDIM) the predicted polar depletion characteristics are compared with those described by the above empirical model. In addition, the TDIM is used to predict the IMF By dependence of the polar hole feature.

Sojka, J. J.↗

Can the variability of solar-like spotted stars be detected polarimetrically

A simple model is developed for the polarimetric variability expected due to a physically small starspot. Under the assumption that the spot cannot be detected photometrically, it is found that a positive polarimetric detection is possible at the 5 sigma level for stars brighter than fourth to seventh magnitude (depending upon the polarimetric system used), and provided that the stellar rotation period exceeds 8 days.

Fox, Geoffrey K.↗

Photometric Modeling of a Cometary Nucleus: Taking Hapke Modeling to the Limit

In the past two decades, photometric models developed by Bruce Hapke have been fit to a wide range of bodies in the Solar System: The Moon, Mercury, several asteroids, and many icy and rocky satellites. These models have enabled comparative descriptions of the physical attributes of planetary surfaces, including macroscopic roughness, particle size and size-distribution, the single scattering albedo, and the compaction state of the optically active portion of the regolith. One challenging type of body to observe and model, a cometary nucleus, awaited the first space based mission to obtain images unobscured by coma. The NASA-JPL Deep Space 1 Mission (DS1) encountered the short-period Jupiter-family comet 19/P Borrelly on September 22, 2001, about 8 days after perihelion. Prior to its closest approach of 2171 km, the remote-sensing package on the spacecraft obtained 25 CCD images of the comet, representing the first closeup, unobscured view of a comet's nucleus. At closest approach, corresponding to a resolution of 47 meters per pixel, the intensity of the coma was less than 1% of that of the nucleus. An unprecedented range of high solar phase angles (52-89 degrees), viewing geometries that are in general attainable only when a comet is active, enabled the first quantitative and disk-resolved modeling of surface photometric physical parameters.

Buratti, B. J.↗

Observational Search for Cometary Aging Processes

The scientific objectives of this study were (i) to search for physical differences in the behavior of the dynamically new comets (those which are entering the solar system for the first time from the Oort cloud) and the periodic comets, and (ii) to interpret these differences, if any, in terms of the physical and chemical nature of the comets and the evolutionary histories of the two comet groups. Because outer solar system comets may be direct remnants of the planetary formation processes, it is clear that the understanding of both the physical characteristics of these bodies at the edge of the planet forming zone and of their activity at large heliocentric distances, r, will ultimately provide constraints on the planetary formation process both in our Solar System and in extra-solar planetary systems. A combination of new solar system models which suggest that the protoplanetary disk was relatively massive and as a consequence comets could form at large distances from the sun (e.g. from the Uranus-Neptune region to the vicinity of the Kuiper belt), observations of activity in comets at large r, and laboratory experiments on low temperature volatile condensation, are dramatically changing our understanding of the chemical'and physical conditions in the early solar nebula. In order to understand the physical processes driving the apparent large r activity, and to address the question of possible physical and chemical differences between periodic, non-periodic and Oort comets, the PI has been undertaking a long-term study of the behavior of a significant sample of these comets (approximately 50) over a wide range of r to watch the development, disappearance and changing morphology of the dust coma. The ultimate goal is to search for systematic physical differences between the comet classes by modelling the coma growth in terms of volatile-driven activity. The systematic observations for this have been ongoing since 1986, and have been obtained over the course of approximately 300 nights using the telescopes on Mauna Kea, Kitt Peak, Cerro Tololo, the European Southern Observatory, and several other large aperture facilities. A greater than 2 TB database of broad band comet images has been obtained which follows the systematic development and fading of the cometary coma for the comets in the database. The results to date, indicate that there is a substantial difference in the brightness and the amount of dust as a function of r between the two comet classes. In addition to this major finding, the program has been responsible for several exciting discoveries, including: the P/Halley outburst at r = 14.3 AU, the discovery of Chiron's coma and modelling and observations of the gravitationally bound component, observational evidence that activity continues out beyond r = 17 AU for many dynamically new comets

Meech, Karen J.↗

Structure and dynamics of the coronal magnetic field

The last few years have seen a marked increase in the sophistication of models of the solar corona. This has been brought about by a confluence of three key elements. First, the collection of high-resolution observations of the Sun, both in space and time, has grown tremendously. The SOHO (Solar Heliospheric Observatory) mission is providing additional correlated high-resolution magnetic, white-light and spectroscopic observations. Second, the power and availability of supercomputers has made two- and three-dimensional modeling routine. Third, the sophistication of the models themselves, both in their geometrical realism and in the detailed physics that has been included, has improved significantly. The support from our current Space Physics Theory grant has allowed us to exploit this confluence of capabilities. We have carried out direct comparisons between observations and models of the solar corona. The agreement between simulated coronal structure and observations has verified that the models are mature enough for detailed analysis, as we will describe. The development of this capability is especially timely, since observations obtained from three space missions that are underway (Ulysses, WIND and SOHO) offer an opportunity for significant advances in our understanding of the corona and heliosphere. Through this interplay of observations and theory we can improve our understanding of the Sun. Our achievements thus far include progress modeling the large-scale structure of the solar corona, three-dimensional models of active region fields, development of emerging flux and current, formation and evolution of coronal loops, and coronal heating by current filaments.

VanHoven, Gerard↗

Application of photometric models to asteroids

The way an asteroid or other atmosphereless solar system body varies in brightness in response to changing illumination and viewing geometry depends in a very complicated way on the physical and optical properties of its surface and on its overall shape. This paper summarizes the formulation and application of recent photometric models by Hapke (1981, 1984, 1986) and by Lumme and Bowell (1981). In both models, the brightness of a rough and porous surface is parameterized in terms of the optical properties of individual particles, by shadowing between particles, and by the way in which light is scattered among collections of particles. Both models succeed in their goal of fitting the observed photometric behavior of a wide variety of bodies, but neither has led to a very complete understanding of the properties of asteroid regoliths, primarily because, in most cases, the parameters in the present models cannot be adequately constrained by observations of integral brightness alone over a restricted range of phase angles.

Bowell, Edward↗

Intelligent Prediction of States in Multi-port Autonomous Reconfigurable Solar power plant (MARS)

In power electronics, prediction of states may be used for identification of faults, determination of aging of components, identification of bad data measurements, among others. Prediction of states in power electronics have broadly been based on: (a) physics-based models, (b) data-driven models, and (c) hybrid models. In this paper, data-driven approaches are presented for intelligent prediction of states in multi-port autonomous reconfigurable solar power plant (MARS) and compared. The data-set needed to train the data-driven models based on artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms has been identified and the trained models are evaluated under different extrapolated normal and abnormal operating conditions. The AI algorithms include nonlinear auto-regressive exogenous model (NARX), spiking neural networks (SNN), and decision tree. The models are compared and contrasted. The best model (NARX) is evaluated under different normal and abnormal operating conditions that have indicated accurate prediction.

Debnath, Suman↗

Data-driven Cyberattack Detection for Photovoltaic (PV) Systems through Analyzing Micro-PMU Data

With increasing exposure to software-based sensing and control, Photovoltaic (PV) systems are facing higher risks of cyber attacks. Here, to ensure the system stability and minimize potential economic losses, it is imperative to monitor operating states and detect attacks at the early stage. To meet this demand, Micro-Phasor Measurement Units (μPMU) are increasingly popular in monitoring distribution networks. However, due to the relatively low sampling rate, μPMU has not yet been used to detect and classify cyber-attacks in power electronics enabled smart grid. To our knowledge, this is one of the first attempts to use μPMU to detect cyber attacks that degrade the performance of power electronics systems. We propose to apply data-driven methods on micro-PMU data to implement attack detection. We have evaluated data-driven methods, including decision tree (DT), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural network (ANN), long short-term memory (LSTM) and convolutional neural network (CNN). The proposed CNN model achieves the required performances with the highest 99.23% accuracy and 0.9963 F 1 score.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The National Climate Data Base (NCDB): A Bias-Corrected High-Resolution Climate Dataset

Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted in recent years to analyze and understand potential impacts of future change in renewable generation on the power sector. Solar energy is well-known as the most plentiful among various renewable resources and usually converted to electricity using photovoltaics (PV) technologies, and the global deployment of PV technology has increased rapidly in recent decades. In this study, we develop a statistical technique to downscale the future projection of solar irradiance for PV energy-related applications. A set of Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) are used as inputs to statistical methods to generate high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The main steps of the statistical downscaling method include (1) regridding RCM output (0.22 degree and daily resolutions) to handle the modeled-observed data sets on a common grid, (2) correcting bias of RCM GHI using satellite-derived observation, and (3) implementing temporal and spatial downscaling to generate GHI at 8-km and hourly resolution. Basically, complex physical processes and interactions between solar radiation and various atmospheric constituents lead solar irradiance to be highly variable and uncertain. Underrepresentation of clouds from the RCM parameterizations is the main source of error and uncertainty in modeling solar irradiance. Thus, we adapt and use the high-quality satellite-derived data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to analyze the bias and error of RCM GHI as well as estimate the statistical parameters for spatial and temporal downscaling. This presentation will summarize the comprehensive analysis conducted to produce and assess the results under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We will also present a detailed validation demonstrating the strengths of the proposed downscaling method and future extension of this research.

climate data↗

The National Climate Database (NCDB): An Unbiased 100-Year Dataset for PV Modeling

In this study, we develop a statistical technique to downscale the future projection of solar irradiance for photovoltaics (PV) energy-related applications. A set of Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) are used as inputs to statistical methods to generate high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The main steps of the statistical downscaling method include (1) regridding RCM output (0.22 degree and daily resolutions) to handle the modeled-observed data sets on a common grid, (2) correcting bias of RCM GHI using satellite-derived observation, and (3) implementing temporal and spatial downscaling to generate GHI at 8-km and hourly resolution. Basically, complex physical processes and interactions between solar radiation and various atmospheric constituents lead solar irradiance to be highly variable and uncertain. Underrepresentation of clouds from the RCM parameterizations is the main source of error and uncertainty in modeling solar irradiance. Thus, we adapt and use the high-quality satellite-derived data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to analyze the bias and error of RCM GHI as well as estimate the statistical parameters for spatial and temporal downscaling. This presentation will summarize the comprehensive analysis conducted to produce and assess the results under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We will also present a detailed validation demonstrating the strengths of the downscaling method, a summary of the 100-year dataset from 2001-2100, and future extension of this research.

bias correction↗

Developing the Science Basis for Understanding Polymer Encapsulant Degradation Mechanisms: DuraMAT 2.0 Final Project Report

Polymeric encapsulants are essential materials in photovoltaic modules, protecting sensitive electronics from the environment while providing mechanical integrity to the multilayered assembly. However, these polymeric materials are susceptible to degradation processes driven by the ingress of environmental species, ultraviolet radiation, thermal stresses, and mechanical loading. In this study, we employ a combined atomistic simulation and accelerated aging experimental approach to study the molecular-scale mechanisms of encapsulant degradation. Classical molecular dynamics simulations quantify the diffusion of environmental and degradation species through the polymer matrix, producing composition-specific diffusion coefficients. Reactive simulations characterize activation energy barriers and reaction rate constants for key chemical pathways. In parallel, thermal-desorption analyses coupled with mass spectrometry monitor the emergence and concentration profiles of degradation products under controlled stressor conditions. By integrating simulation and experiment, we establish quantitative correlations between polymer composition, species diffusivity, and chemical reactivity. We anticipate that these relations and quantitative values could serve as high-fidelity inputs to reaction-diffusion models, enabling physics-informed lifetime predictions and guiding the design of more durable encapsulant materials for solar energy applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modelling of solar active phenomena via numerical methods

Numerical ideal MHD models for the study of solar active phenomena are summarized. Particular attention is given to the following physical phenomena: (1) local heating of a coronal loop in an isothermal and stratified atmosphere, and (2) the coronal dynamic responses due to magnetic field movement. The results suggest that local heating of a magnetic loop will lead to the enhancement of the density of the neighboring loops through MHD wave compression. It is noted that field lines can be pinched off and may form a self-contained magnetized plasma blob that may move outward into interplanetary space.

Wu, S. T.↗

Laboratory studies in ultraviolet solar physics

The research activity comprised the measurement of basic atomic processes and parameters which relate directly to the interpretation of solar ultraviolet observations and to the development of comprehensive models of the component structures of the solar atmosphere. The research was specifically directed towards providing the relevant atomic data needed to perform and to improve solar diagnostic techniques which probe active and quiet portions of the solar chromosphere, the transition zone, the inner corona, and the solar wind acceleration regions of the extended corona. The accuracy with which the physical conditions in these structures can be determined depends directly on the accuracy and completeness of the atomic and molecular data. These laboratory data are used to support the analysis programs of past and current solar observations (e.g., the Orbiting solar Observatories, the Solar Maximum Mission, the Skylab Apollo Telescope Mount, and the Naval Research Laboratory's rocket-borne High Resolution Telescope and Spectrograph). In addition, we attempted to anticipate the needs of future space-borne solar studies such as from the joint ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft. Our laboratory activities stressed two categories of study: (1) the measurement of absolute rate coefficients for dielectronic recombination and electron impact excitation; and (2) the measurement of atomic transition probabilities for solar density diagnostics. A brief summary of the research activity is provided.

Parkinson, W. H.↗

Virtual Observatories: Are We Virtually There Yet?

Virtual observatories are tools for simplifying access to and use of astronomical data from an increasing number of data sources of rapidly growing volume. Now that a variety of virtual observatory development efforts are under way around the world, a cursory review of the efforts outside solar physics, and an only slightly more detailed consideration of those within, demonstrates a commonality of conceptual model if not of approach or application. The linkages among virtual observatories optimized for different scientific communities present an interesting challenge to the designers: should virtual observatories be designed for the most expert users? For the least? For everyone? It is too early to provide definitive answers, but examination of current efforts does offer some clues.

Gurman, J. B.↗

V and V Efforts of Auroral Precipitation Models: Preliminary Results

Auroral precipitation models have been valuable both in terms of space weather applications and space science research. Yet very limited testing has been performed regarding model performance. A variety of auroral models are available, including empirical models that are parameterized by geomagnetic indices or upstream solar wind conditions, now casting models that are based on satellite observations, or those derived from physics-based, coupled global models. In this presentation, we will show our preliminary results regarding V&V efforts of some of the models.

Zheng, Yihua↗

Multi-Wavelength Modeling and Analysis of the Center-to-Limb Effects of Solar Spectroscopy and Helioseismology

An accurate interpretation of observed solar dynamics with different instruments requires modeling solar magnetoconvection indifferent regimes, as well as taking into account center-to-limb effects, magnetic fields, and turbulence. Realistic 3D radiative MHD modeling of the solar magnetoconvection and atmosphere allows us to generate synthetic observables that directly link the physical properties of the solar plasma to spectroscopic and helioseismic observables. In this work, we investigate the influence of the center-to-limb effects for a wide range of wavelengths, which correspond to the operational lines of HMI/SDO, Hinode, DKIST, and other instruments. In particular, we discuss the wavelength-dependency of the center-to-limb helioseismic observations of acoustic travel times that are used for diagnostics of the deep meridional circulation, as well as 'concave' Sun effect. The presented study will support interpretation of helioseismic inversion results by taking into account realistic coupling of subsurface and atmosphere, and geometry-related effects. In particular, it allows us to improve accuracy of solar subsurface measurements from the SoHO and SDO missions, and resolve the long-standing problem of the meridional circulation and evolution with the solar cycle.

SMD↗

Observations and physical interpretations of the solar wind flow properties as obtained from white light coronagraph aboard SPARTAN 201-01

The solar corona was observed with an externally occulted White Light Coronagraph (WLC) carried on the SPARTAN 201-1 spacecraft on 11-12 Apr. 1993. With observations from WLC and the ground based Mauna Loa White Light Coronagraph, a large number of polar plumes both in the north and south polar holes were traced from 1.16 to 5.5 Rs. Flow properties of the solar wind in coronal holes have been determined (Habbal et al., 1995) by using a two fluid model constrained by density profiles and scale height temperatures from the white light observations, and interplanetary measurements of the flow speed and proton mass flux from Ulysses' south polar passage. Provisions for acceleration by Alfven waves, as well as electron and proton heating, are included in the momentum and the energy equations respectively. The model computations fit remarkably well the empirical constraints of the two different density structures (plumes and coronal holes) for a range of input parameters. In this study we investigate the physical nature of the heating function used in the two-fluid model. Alfven waves have been suggested as the possible source of heating that accelerates the solar wind (Ofman and Davila, 1995). We utilize the density contrast observed in WLC data in the plume and ambient coronal hole region to estimate the Alfven wave frequencies responsible for heating these structures. The source heating function utilized in the two fluid model of the solar wind acceleration will be compared with the resonant Alfven wave heating function.

Guhathakurta, Madhulika↗