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At least 343 records · Page 19

A Single Application of Compost Can Leave Lasting Impacts on Soil Microbial Community Structure and Alter Cross-Domain Interaction Networks

Our current understanding suggests that nutrient management strategies applied to agricultural soils over multiple years are required to cause major and stable shifts in soil microbial communities. However, some studies suggest that agricultural soils can benefit even from sporadic, single additions of organic matter. Here we investigate how single additions of high-quality organic matter can cause significant shifts in microbial soil communities over multiple cropping cycles. We grew radishes in a tropical Oxisol soil for six crop cycles after a single application of a high-nitrogen compost or urea. At planting and before biomass harvest, we sampled soils influenced by the radish rhizosphere and sequenced bacterial and archaeal 16S and fungal ITS rDNA marker genes. We measured microbial richness and diversity, community composition and structure, and constructed correlation networks to predict cross-domain microbial interactions. We found that a single application of compost, compared to urea or control, resulted in a persistent improved plant biomass response and led to sustained changes in the soil microbial community throughout the duration of the 227-day study. Compost altered the structure of both the fungal and prokaryotic microbial communities, introduced new microorganisms that persisted in the resident soil system, and altered soil microbial correlation network structure and hub taxa. In contrast, fertilization with urea did not significantly alter the structure of soil microbial communities compared to the control but reduced network complexity and altered hub taxa. This study highlights the significant impacts that high-quality organic matter fertilization can exert on agricultural soil microbiomes and adds to the growing body of knowledge on using organic fertilizers as a way to steer the soil microbiome toward a healthier soil.

Heisey, Steven↗

Updates to the Alliance of Genome Resources central infrastructure

The Alliance of Genome Resources (Alliance) is an extensible coalition of knowledgebases focused on the genetics and genomics of intensively studied model organisms. The Alliance is organized as individual knowledge centers with strong connections to their research communities and a centralized software infrastructure, discussed here. Model organisms currently represented in the Alliance are budding yeast, Caenorhabditis elegans, Drosophila, zebrafish, frog, laboratory mouse, laboratory rat, and the Gene Ontology Consortium. The project is in a rapid development phase to harmonize knowledge, store it, analyze it, and present it to the community through a web portal, direct downloads, and application programming interfaces (APIs). Here, we focus on developments over the last 2 years. Specifically, we added and enhanced tools for browsing the genome (JBrowse), downloading sequences, mining complex data (AllianceMine), visualizing pathways, full-text searching of the literature (Textpresso), and sequence similarity searching (SequenceServer). We enhanced existing interactive data tables and added an interactive table of paralogs to complement our representation of orthology. To support individual model organism communities, we implemented species-specific “landing pages” and will add disease-specific portals soon; in addition, we support a common community forum implemented in Discourse software. We describe our progress toward a central persistent database to support curation, the data modeling that underpins harmonization, and progress toward a state-of-the-art literature curation system with integrated artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Enabling Scalable and Extensible Memory-mapped Datastores in Userspace

Exascale workloads are expected to incorporate data-intensive processing in close coordination with traditional physics simulations. These emerging scientific, data-analytics and machine learning applications need to access a wide variety of datastores in flat files and structured databases. Programmer productivity is greatly enhanced by mapping datastores into the application process's virtual memory space to provide a unified “in-memory” interface. Currently, memory mapping is provided by system software primarily designed for generality and reliability. However, scalability at high concurrency is a formidable challenge on exascale systems. Also, there is a need for extensibility to support new datastores potentially requiring HPC data transfer services. In this article, we present UMap , a scalable and extensible userspace service for memory-mapping datastores. Furthermore, through decoupled queue management, concurrency aware adaptation, and dynamic load balancing, UMap enables application performance to scale even at high concurrency. We evaluate UMap in data-intensive applications, including sorting, graph traversal, database operations, and metagenomic analytics. Our results show that UMap as a userspace service outperforms an optimized kernel-based service across a wide range of intra-node concurrency by 1.22-1.9 × . We performed two case studies to demonstrate UMap 's extensibility. First, a new datastore residing in remote memory is incorporated into UMap as an application-specific plugin. Second, we present a persistent memory allocator Metall built atop UMap for unified storage/memory.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Functional Survey of the Regulatory Landscape of Estrogen Receptor–Positive Breast Cancer Evolution

Abstract Only a handful of somatic alterations have been linked to endocrine therapy resistance in hormone-dependent breast cancer, potentially explaining ∼40% of relapses. If other mechanisms underlie the evolution of hormone-dependent breast cancer under adjuvant therapy is currently unknown. In this work, we employ functional genomics to dissect the contribution of cis-regulatory elements (CRE) to cancer evolution by focusing on 12 megabases of noncoding DNA, including clonal enhancers, gene promoters, and boundaries of topologically associating domains. Parallel epigenetic perturbation (CRISPRi) in vitro reveals context-dependent roles for many of these CREs, with a specific impact on dormancy entrance and endocrine therapy resistance. Profiling of CRE somatic alterations in a unique, longitudinal cohort of patients treated with endocrine therapies identifies a limited set of noncoding changes potentially involved in therapy resistance. Overall, our data uncover how endocrine therapies trigger the emergence of transient features which could ultimately be exploited to hinder the adaptive process. Significance: This study shows that cells adapting to endocrine therapies undergo changes in the usage or regulatory regions. Dormant cells are less vulnerable to regulatory perturbation but gain transient dependencies which can be exploited to decrease the formation of dormant persisters.

Oncology↗

Assessing thermal comfort and participation in residential demand flexibility programs

Residential space-conditioning-based demand flexibility (DF) has become an increasingly sought-after method for demand-side load management to enhance grid reliability and facilitate integration of renewable energy generation. However, predicting the effectiveness and flexibility of residential DF resources is challenging due to the variability in household energy use behaviors. Current estimates show that only 50 % of projected savings from DF resources are actualized due to regulatory, technological, and social barriers. From a household perspective, concerns over thermal comfort during space conditioning-based DF events significantly impact participation decisions. Currently, there is a very limited understanding of how thermal comfort during space-conditioning-based DF events in real-world settings impacts household energy use behaviors and, consequently, the success of DF programs in achieving targeted savings. This paper proposes a method to comprehensively assess the thermal comfort implications of DF strategies and presents results of their impacts on DF event participation decisions and demand savings. Here, the proposed method was applied to a heat pump DF field study in Cordova, Alaska. The study’s key findings are: 1) DF event setpoint offsets that maintain indoor operative temperatures between 18 to 22 °C (65 to 71°F) may be preferred in Cordova, Alaska; 2) Household-level thermal comfort is more sensitive to the duration of the DF event than to the degree of temperature offset from baseline conditions; 3) The delayed impact of changes in indoor operative temperature in response to setpoint offsets, both during and after a DF event, influences occupants’ thermal comfort perceptions and willingness to persistently participate in events. The findings from application of the proposed method can help inform future larger-scale occupant-centric DF programs as it can capture information not readily available through utility and device-level energy use data. Thus, it can supplement these sources and help program administrators develop occupant-centric DF strategies, enabling more accurate predictions of participation rates and savings estimates for space-conditioning-based DF programs.

Demand side management↗

Multiscale Shear Properties and Flow Performance of Milled Woody Biomass

One dominant challenge facing the development of biorefineries is achieving consistent system throughput with highly variant biomass feedstock quality and handling performance. Current handling unit operations are adapted from other sectors (primarily agriculture), where some simplifying assumptions about granular mechanics and flow performance do not translate well to a highly compressible and anisotropic material with nonlinear time- and stress-dependent properties. This work explores the shear and frictional properties of loblolly pine at multiple experimental test apparatus and particle scales to elucidate a property window that defines the shear behavior over a range of material attributes (particle size, size distribution, moisture content, etc.). In general, it was observed that the bulk internal friction and apparent cohesion depend strongly on both the stress state of the sample in granular shear testers and the overall particle size and distribution span. For equipment designed to characterize the quasi-static shear stress failure of bulk materials ranging from 50 to 1,000 ml in test volume, similar test results were observed for finely milled particles (50% passing size of 1.4 mm) with a narrow size distribution (span between 10 and 90% passing size of 0.9 mm), while stress chaining and over-torque issues persisted for the bench-scale test apparatus for larger particle sizes or widely dispersed sample sizes. Measurement of the anisotropic particle–particle friction ranged from coefficients of approximately 0.20 to 0.45 and resulted in significantly higher and more variable friction measurements for larger particle sizes and in perpendicular alignment orientations. To supplement these laboratory-scale properties, this work explores the flow of loblolly pine and Douglas fir through a pilot-scale wedge-shaped hopper and a screw feeder. For the gravity-driven hopper flow, the critical arching distance and mass discharge rate ranged from approximately 10 to 30 mm and 2 to 16 tons/hour, respectively, for both materials, where the arching distance depends strongly on the overall particle size and depends less on the hopper inclination angle. Comparatively, the auger feeder was found to be much more impacted by the size of the particles, where smaller particles had a more consistent and stable flow while consuming less power.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Interpretation of high-harmonic fast-wave propagation in the scrape-off layer of NSTX-U as a geometrically bounded-waveguide mode

This paper revisits the onset of high-harmonic fast-wave (HHFW) propagation in the scrape-off layer (SOL) plasma of the NSTX/NSTX-U spherical tokamak, motivated by past HHFW heating and current drive experiments and modelling. Previously, the fast-wave propagation in the SOL was correlated with the opening (suppression) of the fast-wave right-hand cutoff layer in front of the antenna. In this work, the SOL propagation is interpreted as a geometric waveguide mode guided by the SOL geometry, whose radial width can be comparable to the wave’s perpendicular wavelength in the HHFW regime. A two-dimensional circular model is first employed using full-wave solvers to characterise the poloidal eigenmode structures and to clarify their relationship to annulus resonance. By progressively adding a tokamak-like magnetic-field configuration, starting from a uniform axial field, the effects of magnetic-field gradients and pitch on the SOL waveguide mode are characterised. The poloidal mode numbers supported by the SOL plasma agree well with analytic estimates, indicating that an anisotropic plasma in a bounded geometry selectively supports and amplifies the resonant poloidal mode number. Additionally, two-dimensional axisymmetric NSTX-U simulations demonstrate that the SOL eigenmode features identified in the circular model persist in the experimentally relevant configurations. A control approach based on lengthening the wave perpendicular wavelength relative to the SOL width, including a higher magnetic (B)-field operation, is discussed. The analysis here shows the key role of a bounded geometry in interpreting HHFW eigenmode coupling and propagation in the NSTX-U SOL plasma.

plasma heating↗

Surface-to-Interior Transport Timescales and Ventilation Patterns in a Time-Dependent Circulation Driven by Sustained Climate Warming

Abstract The effect of climate warming in response to rising atmospheric CO 2 on the ventilation of the ocean remains uncertain. Here we make theoretical advances in elucidating the relationship between ideal age and transit time distribution (TTD) in a time-dependent flow. Subsequently, we develop an offline tracer-transport model to characterize the ventilation patterns and time scales in the time-evolving circulation for the 1850–2300 period as simulated with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESMv1) under a business-as-usual warming scenario. We found that by 2300 2.1% less water originates from the high-latitude deep water formation regions (both hemispheres) compared to 1850. In compensation, there is an increase in the water originating from the subantarctic. We also found that slowing meridional overturning circulation causes a gradual increase in mean age during the 1850–2300 period, with a globally averaged mean-age increase of ∼110 years in 2300. Where and when the water will be re-exposed to the atmosphere depends on the post-2300 circulation. For example, if we assume that the circulation persists in its year-2300 state (scenario 1), the mean interior-to-surface transit time in year 1850 is ∼1140 years. In contrast, if we assume that the circulation abruptly recovers to its year-1850 state (scenario 2), the mean interior-to-surface transit time in 1850 is only ∼740 years. By 2300, these differences become even larger; in scenario 1, the mean interior-to-surface transit time increases by ∼200 years, whereas scenario 2 decreases by ∼80 years. The dependence of interior-to-surface transit time on the future ocean circulation produces an additional unavoidable uncertainty in the long-term durability of marine carbon dioxide removal strategies. Significance Statement The ocean’s circulation, when altered by climate warming, can affect its capacity to absorb heat and CO 2 , which are crucial for the global climate. In our study, we investigated how global warming, caused by rising CO 2 levels, might impact the ocean circulation—the way water moves from deep ocean to the surface and vice versa. We discovered that by 2300, if we continue on our current warming trajectory, the origins of water within the ocean will shift, with less coming from deep, cold zones near the poles and more from subantarctic regions. As a result, deep water will take longer time before it resurfaces than shallow water. How quickly this water travels from deep regions to the surface could change, depending on the state of future ocean circulation. If the circulation remains as predicted in 2300, this journey will take longer. Conversely, if it reverts to the pattern in 1850, the process will be quicker. This variability introduces added uncertainty to strategies aimed at mitigating climate change by storing CO 2 in the ocean. Our work highlights the intricate ways in which climate change can influence our oceans, potentially affecting our plans to mitigate global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Challenges of standard halo models in constraining galaxy properties from cosmic infrared background anisotropies

The halo model, combined with halo occupation distribution (HOD) prescriptions, is widely used to interpret cosmic infrared background (CIB) anisotropies and extract physical information about star-forming galaxies and their connection to large-scale structures. Recent CIB-specific implementations of the halo model have adopted more physical parameterizations. However, the extent to which these models can reliably recover meaningful physical parameters remains uncertain. We assessed whether the current parameterization of CIB halo models is sufficient to recover astrophysical quantities, such as star formation efficiency, η(M h , z), and halo mass at which the peak of star formation efficiency occurs, M max , when fit to mock data. We also assessed whether discrepancies arise from assumptions about galaxy emission (the HOD ingredients) or from more fundamental components in the halo model, such as bias and matter clustering. We fit the M21 CIB HOD model, implemented within the halo model framework, to mock CIB power spectra and star formation rate density (SFRD) data generated from the SIDES-Uchuu simulation, and compared the best-fit parameters to the known simulation inputs. We then repeated the analysis using a simplified version of the simulation (SSU), explicitly designed to match the HOD assumptions. A detailed comparison of model and simulation outputs was carried out to trace the origin of observed discrepancies. While the M21 HOD model provides a good fit to the mock data, it failed to recover the intrinsic parameters accurately, particularly the halo mass at which star formation efficiency peaks. This mismatch persists even when fitting data generated with the same model assumptions. We find strong agreement (within 5%) in the emission-related components (SFRD, emissivity), but observe a scale- and redshift-dependent offset exceeding 20% in the two-halo term of the CIB power spectrum. This likely arises from limitations in the treatment of halo bias and matter clustering within the linear approximation. Additionally, incorporating scatter in the SFR–halo mass relation and the spectral energy distribution (SED) templates significantly affects the shot noise (∼50%), but has only a modest impact (less than 10%) on the clustered component. These results suggest that recovering physical parameters from CIB clustering requires improvements to the cosmological ingredients of the halo model framework, such as adopting scale-dependent halo bias and nonlinear matter power spectra in addition to careful modeling of emission physics.

cosmic background radiation↗

Land use-land cover gradient demonstrates the importance of perennial grasslands with intact soils for building soil carbon in the fertile Mollisols of the North Central US

The impact of land use change and agricultural management on the cycling of soil organic carbon (SOC) is not well understood, limiting our ability to manage for, and accurately model, soil carbon changes at both local and regional scales. To address this issue, here we combined long-term soil incubations with acid-hydrolysis and dry combustion to parse total SOC (C t ) into three operationally defined SOC pools (active, slow, and recalcitrant) from 9 long-term sites with varying land uses on current and former tallgrass prairie soil. Land uses represented a gradient of soil disturbance histories including remnant prairie, restored prairie, grazed pasture, annual crop rotations, and continuous maize. Dry combustion was used to estimate total carbon (C t , physical), while acid hydrolysis of both the active (C a ) and slow (C s ) pools was used to estimate a recalcitrant carbon pool (C r , chemical). Non-linear modeling of CO 2 efflux data from the long-term incubations was then used to estimate C a , and the decomposition rates of both C a and C s (k a and k r , biological). The size of the slow pools C s was then defined mathematically as C t- (C a + C r ). Remnant prairie had the highest C t , while cool-season pasture and a 35-y-old restored prairie had higher C t than the other agricultural systems. All agricultural systems, including pasture, had the highest fraction of C t as C r (~50%), whose mean residence time (MRT) in these soils is ≥500 years (Paul et al., 2001a) demonstrating that this fraction persists, while the more labile fractions were lost over the course of a few months (C a ) to a few decades (C s ) as a result of tillage-intensive agriculture. The two- to four-decade MRT time of C s indicated a pool likely to be more responsive to the 20 to 40 years of land-use practices used at some of the sites. The C s pool was largest in the remnant- and 35-y-old prairies indicating significant C accrual and stabilization compared to the agricultural ecosystems. Interestingly, the remnant prairie maintained the highest C a pool as well, demonstrating the strong connection between the quantity of fresh C inputs and the potential for long-term C stabilization and accrual. The accumulation of C in active (≈labile) pools as a first step toward long-term stabilization highlights the tenuous nature of early carbon gains, which can be quickly lost in response to climate change or poor management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

BuildingsBench: A Benchmark for Universal Building Load Forecasting [SWR-23-51]

The residential and commercial building stock in the United States is responsible for a significant percentage of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Electrification of end-uses, as well as decarbonizing the electrical grid through renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, constitutes the pathway to zero-emission buildings. Forecasting day-ahead building energy consumption is an integral part of this solution. Currently, specialized forecasting models are hand-made for each individual building, which is time-consuming, expensive, and leads to duplicated efforts. BuildingsBench is a Python software framework for training and comparing generalized machine learning models for universal building load forecasting. This challenge tasks a single foundational model to generalize its forecasts for a wide variety of buildings, across geographic regions, building types, weather patterns, and more. This software provide code for pre-training such models and subsequently evaluating their performance on a suite of hundreds of diverse real and synthetic buildings. BuildingsBench is a platform for: - Large-scale pretraining with the synthetic Buildings-900K dataset for short-term load forecasting (STLF). Buildings-900K is statistically representative of the entire U.S. building stock and is extracted from the NREL End-Use Load Profiles database. - Benchmarking on two tasks evaluating generalization: zero-shot STLF and transfer learning for STLF. We provide an index-based PyTorch Dataset for large-scale pretraining, easy data loading for multiple real building energy consumption datasets as PyTorch Tensors or Pandas DataFrames, simple (persistence) to advanced (transformer) baselines, metrics management, and more.

Emami, Patrick↗

Autonomous System Subversion Tactics: Prototypes and Recommended Countermeasures

One of the fielding requirements for Advanced and Small Modular Reactors (AR/SMR) is the ability to support remote and autonomous operations. Autonomous Control Systems (ACS) are found on platforms such as Autonomous Space Vehicles, Cruise Missiles, and advanced driver-assistance systems. Each of these ACS implementations depends upon a set of decision support subsystems responsible for supporting Autonomous Mission Managers (names vary based upon field and author preferences). These Autonomous Mission Managers receive inputs from system sensors (e.g., LIDAR collection from an automobile travelling down a street; transients from a nuclear reactor), and perform a set of classifications (e.g., Red Traffic Light; Small Pedestrian at 10m; Load Rejection; Single Coolant Pump Trip), and then use these classifications in combination with recommendation algorithms to achieve platform goals (e.g., Stop the Vehicle at the Traffic Light, Avoid the Small Pedestrian; Trip the Reactor to prevent a Safety Event). The design, implementation, and fielding of an ACS capability will alter the cyber-attack surface such that existing risk management plans will need to be updated to include how to protect and defend against data-science and decision-support-system attack classes. These attack classes would include protection of the design and training environments where algorithm selection and testing and training data would be obvious attack vectors. These attack classes would also require an informed set of detection and response procedures to identify anomalous behaviors and document best practices for anomaly assessment and vulnerability mitigation and remediation. Last year we published a Cyber Threat Assessment Methodology for Autonomous and Remote Operations for AR/SMRs along with a companion publication on Cyber Attack and Defense Use Cases. The focus of the methodology was on describing and enumerating ACS processes, components, and functions such that security engineers could: evaluate subversion options against the target; identify threat actor attributes and capabilities derived from each subversion option; and identify security controls and response countermeasures. The Use Cases document offered detailed methodology examples including an assessment of a Military Base SMR, an Autonomous System Decision Loop, and implementation of AR/SMR Machine Learning algorithms. Our proposal at the end of last year was to focus on implementation of subversion prototypes related to the last Use Case area: AR/SMR Machine Learning (ML) Algorithms. We included six attack scenarios in our Use Cases paper: a Poisoning Attack against ML functions implemented using an FPGA; a Trojaning Attack against ML classifiers exploiting the excitability of Nuclear Engineers; a Backdooring Attack against ML Training environments to ensure persistence of an attack vector; a False Positive Evasion Attack against multi-factor Access Control Systems using clever inputs; an Inference Attack against ML models by an Insider with access to the Operational environment; and an Adversarial Reprogramming Attack against a Material Access Control Video Surveillance System. At the beginning of this year these six attack scenarios were provided to our research teams at Georgia Tech and Idaho State University and each team successfully implemented a subversion attack against a ML implementation to include transient misclassifications. While this is a notable outcome from this type of research, this paper offers the reader insight into not only how to structure and execute these types of attacks, but into the thought process behind how the researcher investigated the problem space, performed initial algorithm implementation, and the trial-and-error behind arriving at the successful subversion prototypes. We include in this paper a set of associated Scenarios on how these subversion prototypes could be implemented and an initial set of guidance for AR/SMR architects, Nuclear Regulators, and Cyber Defenders to implement awareness and defense capabilities into their current operational portfolios.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Virus diversity and activity is driven by snowmelt and host dynamics in a high-altitude watershed soil ecosystem

Background: Viruses impact nearly all organisms on Earth, including microbial communities and their associated biogeochemical processes. In soils, highly diverse viral communities have been identified, with a global distribution seemingly driven by multiple biotic and abiotic factors, especially soil temperature and moisture. However, our current understanding of the stability of soil viral communities across time and their response to strong seasonal changes in environmental parameters remains limited. Here, we investigated the diversity and activity of environmental soil DNA and RNA viruses, focusing especially on bacteriophages, across dynamics’ seasonal changes in a snow-dominated mountainous watershed by examining paired metagenomes and metatranscriptomes. Results: We identified a large number of DNA and RNA viruses taxonomically divergent from existing environmental viruses, including a significant proportion of fungal RNA viruses, and a large and unsuspected diversity of positive single-stranded RNA phages ( Leviviricetes ), highlighting the under-characterization of the global soil virosphere. Among these, we were able to distinguish subsets of active DNA and RNA phages that changed across seasons, consistent with a “seed-bank” viral community structure in which new phage activity, for example, replication and host lysis, is sequentially triggered by changes in environmental conditions. At the population level, we further identified virus-host dynamics matching two existing ecological models: “Kill-The-Winner” which proposes that lytic phages are actively infecting abundant bacteria, and “Piggyback-The-Persistent” which argues that when the host is growing slowly, it is more beneficial to remain in a dormant state. The former was associated with summer months of high and rapid microbial activity, and the latter with winter months of limited and slow host growth. Conclusion: Taken together, these results suggest that the high diversity of viruses in soils is likely associated with a broad range of host interaction types each adapted to specific host ecological strategies and environmental conditions. As our understanding of how environmental and host factors drive viral activity in soil ecosystems progresses, integrating these viral impacts in complex natural microbiome models will be key to accurately predict ecosystem biogeochemistry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrophobic, Thermal Shock-and-Corrosion-Resistant XSBR Latex-Modified Lightweight Class G Cement Composites in Geothermal Well Energy Storage Systems

Energy losses can be significantly reduced if thermally insulating cement is used for energy storage and recovery. The thermal conductivity (TC) of the currently used cement is between 1 and 1.2 W/mK. In this study we assessed the ability of polystyrene (PS)–polybutadiene (PB)–polyacrylic acid (PAA) terpolymer (cross-linked styrene–butadiene rubber, XSBR) latex to improve thermal insulating properties and thermal shock (TS) resistance of class G ordinary Portland cement (OPC) and fly ash cenosphere (FCSs) composites in the temperature range of 100–175 °C. The composites autoclaved at 100 °C were subjected to three cycles, one cycle: 175 °C heat → 25 °C water quenching). In hydrothermal and thermal (TS) environments at elevated temperatures in cement slurries the XSBR latex formed acrylic calcium complexes through acid–base reactions, and the number of such complexes increased at higher temperatures due to the XSBR degradation with formation of additional acrylic groups. As a result, these complexes offered the following five advanced properties to the OPC-based composites: (1) enhanced hydrophobicity; (2) decreased water-fillable porosity; (3) reduced TC for water-saturated composites; (4) minimized loss of compressive strength, Young’s modulus, and compressive fracture toughness after TS; and (5) abated pozzolanic activity of FCSs, which allowed FCSs to persist as thermal insulators under strongly alkaline conditions of cement slurries. Additionally, XSBR-modified slurries possessed improved workability and decreased slurry density due to the air-entraining effect of latex, which resulted in further improvement of thermal insulation performance of the modified composites.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Discordant Clinical and Microbiological Outcomes Are Associated With Late Clinical Relapse in Clinical Trials for Complicated Urinary Tract Infections

Abstract Background Current US Food and Drug Administration guidance recommends that the primary endpoint for complicated urinary tract infection clinical trials be a composite of the clinical and microbiological responses, assessed at a fixed point after therapy. Although some participants meet the criteria for clinical success, they do not meet the criteria for microbiological eradication and are classified as treatment failures. These discordant outcomes have raised questions about the utility of the microbiological endpoint. Methods We analyzed participant data from 13 phase 3 clinical trials submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration (N = 4842). Outcomes were determined at the test of cure (TOC) visit, recommended to occur at least 5 days after therapy and at the late follow-up visit, recommended to occur 21 to 28 days after randomization. Clinical and microbiological success were defined as the resolution of complicated urinary tract infection symptoms present at study entry, with no new symptoms (clinical cure), and a reduction in density of the original pathogen to <103 CFU/mL on urine culture (microbiological eradication). Results Among included participants, 70.7% were concordant successes at the TOC visit, 18.0% were discordant failures (clinical cure/microbiological persistence), and 6.7% were concordant failures (clinical failure/microbiological persistence). Discordant participants were at an increased risk for clinical failure at the late follow-up visit, and the risk of late clinical failure increased with time. Conclusions Discordant clinical and microbiological outcomes at the TOC visit were associated with an increased risk of late clinical failure. Microbiological outcomes appear to be an important component of the endpoint.

Immunology↗

Growing impact of wildfire on western US water supply

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addresses these knowledge gaps for the western United States (WUS), where annual forest fire area increased by more than 1,100% during 1984 to 2020. Among 72 forested basins across the WUS that burned between 1984 and 2019, the multibasin mean streamflow was significantly elevated by 0.19 SDs (P < 0.01) for an average of 6 water years postfire, compared to the range of results expected from climate alone. Significance is assessed by comparing prefire and postfire streamflow responses to climate and also to streamflow among 107 control basins that experienced little to no wildfire during the study period. The streamflow response scales with fire extent: among the 29 basins where >20% of forest area burned in a year, streamflow over the first 6 water years postfire increased by a multibasin average of 0.38 SDs, or 30%. Postfire streamflow increases were significant in all four seasons. Historical fire–climate relationships combined with climate model projections suggest that 2021 to 2050 will see repeated years when climate is more fire-conducive than in 2020, the year currently holding the modern record for WUS forest area burned. These findings center on relatively small, minimally managed basins, but our results suggest that burned areas will grow enough over the next 3 decades to enhance streamflow at regional scales. Wildfire is an emerging driver of runoff change that will increasingly alter climate impacts on water supplies and runoff-related risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Oblique instability of quasi-parallel whistler waves in the presence of cold and warm electron populations

Whistler waves propagating nearly parallel to the ambient magnetic field experience a nonlinear instability due to transverse currents when the background plasma has a population of sufficiently low energy electrons. Intriguingly, this nonlinear process may generate oblique electrostatic waves, including whistlers near the resonance cone with properties resembling oblique chorus waves in the Earth’s magnetosphere. Focusing on the generation of oblique whistlers, earlier analysis of the instability is extended here to the case where low-energy background plasma consists of both a “cold” population with energy of a few eV and a “warm” electron component with energy of the order of 100 eV. This is motivated by spacecraft observations in the Earth’s magnetosphere where oblique chorus waves were shown to interact resonantly with the warm electrons. The main new results are: 1) the instability producing oblique electrostatic waves is sensitive to the shape of the electron distribution at low energies. In the whistler range of frequencies, two distinct peaks in the growth rate are typically present for the model considered: a peak associated with the warm electron population at relatively low wavenumbers and a peak associated with the cold electron population at relatively high wavenumbers; 2) overall, the instability producing oblique whistler waves near the resonance cone persists (with a reduced growth rate) even in the cases where the temperature of the cold population is relatively high, including cases where cold population is absent and only the warm population is included; 3) particle-in-cell simulations show that the instability leads to heating of the background plasma and formation of characteristic plateau and beam features in the parallel electron distribution function in the range of energies resonant with the instability. The plateau/beam features have been previously detected in spacecraft observations of oblique chorus waves. However, they have been attributed to external sources and have been proposed to be the mechanism generating oblique chorus. In the present scenario, the causality link is reversed and the instability generating oblique whistler waves is shown to be a possible mechanism for formation of the plateau and beam features.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Influence of Aqueous Dispersivity on Transport of Radiological Material at LANL MDA G - 20450

Aqueous dispersivity is a phenomenon by which a solute moving in groundwater mixes with water that does not contain the solute and becomes diluted. Solutes take paths of varying lengths through pore networks or experience slower velocities due to interactions with pore walls. Aqueous dispersivity leads to breakthrough curves with earlier arrival than expected in purely advective systems and persistent 'tails,' or late-arriving, dilute concentrations of the solute. Dispersivity can be longitudinal (in the direction of flow) or transverse (orthogonal to flow). LANL has disposed of radioactive material at Material Disposal Area (MDA) G since the late 1950's. Most of the disposed materials at MDA G are low-level waste (LLW), but other types of radioactive wastes are disposed or stored at the site. For example, there is a collection of remote-handled transuranic waste (RH-TRU) waste in 33 shafts, which were intended to be stored retrievably. Aqueous-phase radionuclides included in models of contaminant transport at MDA G are subject to dispersive processes in porous media of the vadose zone and saturated zone. To model dispersivity at MDA G probabilistically, we created site-specific distributions of aqueous dispersivity. First, we performed a comprehensive review of peer-reviewed publications, reports from other performance assessments of MDA G, and documentation from sites that were considered similar based on expert opinion, such as Yucca Mountain. Data were included from a wide range of sources, so that distributions developed based on the data reflect the current state of knowledge in properties of the subsurface environment. Data were grouped based on value type (e.g., determined via experiment or used in a different model), rock type, zone type (saturated or unsaturated), and site, and were weighted in the distributions according to their relevance to the site and zone type. We combined Monte Carlo simulation and bootstrapping techniques to produce approximate distributions of mean aqueous dispersivity. Distributions of dispersivity for saturated and unsaturated zone transport are differentiated by data weight and the length scales over which transport occurs. We find that underestimating or disregarding transverse dispersivity may lead to overstating simulated well capture in the saturated zone at MDA G. Neglecting transverse dispersivity is a common assumption due in part to use of one-dimensional transport models that do not consider solute spreading orthogonal to flow. Also, we find that variability in longitudinal dispersivity is associated with substantial travel time alterations in the MDA G unsaturated zone and in simulated contaminant breakthrough times at a downstream observation plane in the MDA G saturated zone. Finally, at large scales (>1000 m), a linear trend between the dispersivity coefficient and length over which transport occurs may overestimate the dispersivity coefficient. Future modeling work with application to solute spreading could include interacting advective and diffusive zones in the highly fractured basalt below MDA G. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗