Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “parametric uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: marginalization over redshift distribution uncertainties using ranking of discrete realizations

ABSTRACT Cosmological information from weak lensing surveys is maximized by sorting source galaxies into tomographic redshift subsamples. Any uncertainties on these redshift distributions must be correctly propagated into the cosmological results. We present hyperrank, a new method for marginalizing over redshift distribution uncertainties, using discrete samples from the space of all possible redshift distributions, improving over simple parametrized models. In hyperrank, the set of proposed redshift distributions is ranked according to a small (between one and four) number of summary values, which are then sampled, along with other nuisance parameters and cosmological parameters in the Monte Carlo chain used for inference. This approach can be regarded as a general method for marginalizing over discrete realizations of data vector variation with nuisance parameters, which can consequently be sampled separately from the main parameters of interest, allowing for increased computational efficiency. We focus on the case of weak lensing cosmic shear analyses and demonstrate our method using simulations made for the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We show that the method can correctly and efficiently marginalize over a wide range of models for the redshift distribution uncertainty. Finally, we compare hyperrank to the common mean-shifting method of marginalizing over redshift uncertainty, validating that this simpler model is sufficient for use in the DES Year 3 cosmology results presented in companion papers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1989

Autonomous frequency domain identification: Theory and experiment

The analysis, design, and on-orbit tuning of robust controllers require more information about the plant than simply a nominal estimate of the plant transfer function. Information is also required concerning the uncertainty in the nominal estimate, or more generally, the identification of a model set within which the true plant is known to lie. The identification methodology that was developed and experimentally demonstrated makes use of a simple but useful characterization of the model uncertainty based on the output error. This is a characterization of the additive uncertainty in the plant model, which has found considerable use in many robust control analysis and synthesis techniques. The identification process is initiated by a stochastic input u which is applied to the plant p giving rise to the output. Spectral estimation (h = P sub uy/P sub uu) is used as an estimate of p and the model order is estimated using the produce moment matrix (PMM) method. A parametric model unit direction vector p is then determined by curve fitting the spectral estimate to a rational transfer function. The additive uncertainty delta sub m = p - unit direction vector p is then estimated by the cross spectral estimate delta = P sub ue/P sub uu where e = y - unit direction vectory y is the output error, and unit direction vector y = unit direction vector pu is the computed output of the parametric model subjected to the actual input u. The experimental results demonstrate the curve fitting algorithm produces the reduced-order plant model which minimizes the additive uncertainty. The nominal transfer function estimate unit direction vector p and the estimate delta of the additive uncertainty delta sub m are subsequently available to be used for optimization of robust controller performance and stability.

Yam, Yeung↗
NASA NTRS2007

Non-Parametric Collision Probability for Low-Velocity Encounters

An implicit, but not necessarily obvious, assumption in all of the current techniques for assessing satellite collision probability is that the relative position uncertainty is perfectly correlated in time. If there is any mis-modeling of the dynamics in the propagation of the relative position error covariance matrix, time-wise de-correlation of the uncertainty will increase the probability of collision over a given time interval. The paper gives some examples that illustrate this point. This paper argues that, for the present, Monte Carlo analysis is the best available tool for handling low-velocity encounters, and suggests some techniques for addressing the issues just described. One proposal is for the use of a non-parametric technique that is widely used in actuarial and medical studies. The other suggestion is that accurate process noise models be used in the Monte Carlo trials to which the non-parametric estimate is applied. A further contribution of this paper is a description of how the time-wise decorrelation of uncertainty increases the probability of collision.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗
NASA NTRS1976

Search for evidence of a preferred reference frame

Some gravitation theories, in contradiction to general relativity, allow the existence of a universal preferred reference frame. Also allowed in some theories can be a galaxy-induced anisotropy of the gravitation constant. The parametrized post-Newtonian theory predicts that in these cases, there will be anomalous earth-tide amplitudes at specific frequencies. An 18-month earth-tide record obtained with the superconducting gravimeter has been examined for such anomalies. The data allow for the existence of such effects but cannot prove it because of uncertainties concerning geophysical perturbations of the tides. However, an upper limit to the preferred frame parameter of the parametrized post-Newtonian formalism is established at 0.002. The results also set a less rigorous limit on the anisotropy parameter, of the order of 0.001.

Warburton, R. J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved galactic foreground removal for B-mode detection with clustering methods

ABSTRACT Characterizing the sub-mm Galactic emission has become increasingly critical especially in identifying and removing its polarized contribution from the one emitted by the cosmic microwave background (CMB). In this work, we present a parametric foreground removal performed on to sub-patches identified in the celestial sphere by means of spectral clustering. Our approach takes into account efficiently both the geometrical affinity and the similarity induced by the measurements and the accompanying errors. The optimal partition is then used to parametrically separate the Galactic emission encoding thermal dust and synchrotron from the CMB one applied on two nominal observations of forthcoming experiments from the ground and from the space. Moreover, the clustering is performed on tracers that are different from the data used for component separation, e.g. the spectral index maps of dust and synchrotron. Performing the parametric fit singularly on each of the clustering derived regions results in an overall improvement: both controlling the bias and the uncertainties in the CMB B-mode recovered maps. We finally apply this technique using the map of the number of clouds along the line of sight, $\mathcal {N}_c$, as estimated from H i emission data and perform parametric fitting on to patches derived by clustering on this map. We show that adopting the $\mathcal {N}_c$ map as a tracer for the patches related to the thermal dust emission, results in reducing the B-mode residuals post-component separation. The code is made publicly available https://github.com/giuspugl/fgcluster.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Determination of crossing-symmetric π π scattering amplitudes and the quark mass evolution of the σ constrained by lattice QCD

Lattice QCD spectra can be used to constrain partial-wave scattering amplitudes that, while satisfying unitarity, do not have to respect crossing symmetry and analyticity. This becomes a particular problem when extrapolated far from real energies, e.g. in the case of broad resonances like the σ , leading to large systematic uncertainties in the pole position. In this manuscript, we will show how dispersion relations can implement the additional constraints, using as input lattice-determined π π partial-wave scattering amplitudes with isospin–0,1,2. We will show that only certain combinations of amplitude parametrizations satisfy all constraints, and that when we restrict to these, the σ pole position is determined with minimal systematic uncertainty. The evolution of the now well-constrained σ pole with varying light quark mass is presented, showing how it transitions from a bound-state to a broad resonance. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

GrainNN: A neighbor-aware long short-term memory network for predicting microstructure evolution during polycrystalline grain formation

High fidelity simulations of grain formation in alloys are an indispensable tool for process-to-mechanical-properties characterization. Such simulations, however, can be computationally expensive as they require fine spatial and temporal discretizations. Their cost becomes an obstacle to parametric studies and ensemble runs and ultimately makes downstream tasks like optimal control and uncertainty quantification challenging. To enable such downstream tasks, we introduce GrainNN, an efficient and accurate reduced-order model for epitaxial grain growth in additive manufacturing conditions. GrainNN is a sequence-to-sequence long-short-term-memory (LSTM) deep neural network that evolves the dynamics of manually crafted features. Its innovations are (1) an attention mechanism with grain-microstructure-specific transformer architecture; and (2) an overlapping combination of several clones of the network to generalize to grain configurations that are different from those used for training. This design enables GrainNN to predict grain formation for unseen physical parameters, grain number, domain size and geometry. Furthermore, GrainNN not only reconstructs the quantities of interest but also can be pointwise accurate. In our numerical experiments, we use a polycrystalline phase field method to both generate the training data and assess GrainNN. For multiparametric, ensemble simulations with many grains, GrainNN can be orders of magnitude faster than phase field simulations, while delivering 5%–15% pointwise error. Additionally, this speedup includes the cost of the phase field simulations for generating training data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Black hole spin in X-ray binaries: giving uncertainties an $\mathcal{f}$

The two established techniques for measuring black hole spin in X-ray binaries often yield conflicting results, which must be resolved before either method may be deemed robust. In practice, black hole spin measurements based on fitting the accretion disc continuum effectively do not marginalize over the colour-correction factor f col . This factor parametrizes spectral hardening of the disc continuum by the disc atmosphere, whose true properties are poorly constrained. We incorporate reasonable systematic uncertainties in f col into the eight (non-maximal) black hole spin measurements vetted by the disc continuum fitting community. In most cases, an f col uncertainty of ±0.2–0.3 dominates the black hole spin error budget. We go on to demonstrate that plausible departures in f col values from those adopted by the disc continuum fitting practitioners can bring the discrepant black hole spins into agreement with those from iron line modelling. Systematic uncertainties in f col , such as the effects of strong magnetization, should be better understood before dismissing their potentially dominant impact on the black hole spin error budget.

4U 1543–47↗
DOE OSTI2026

Iterative HOMER with uncertainties

We present iHOMER, an iterative version of the HOMER method to extract Lund fragmentation functions from experimental data. Through iterations, we address the information gap between latent and observable phase spaces and systematically remove bias. To quantify uncertainties on the inferred weights, we use a combination of Bayesian neural networks and uncertainty-aware regression. We find that the combination of iterations and uncertainty quantification produces well-calibrated weights that accurately reproduce the data distribution. A parametric closure test shows that the iteratively learned fragmentation function is compatible with the true fragmentation function.

Butter, Anja [Heidelberg Univ. (Germany); Sorbonne↗
NASA NTRS2005

Scramjet Engine Flowpath Development for the Hyper-X Mach 10 Flight Test

The third flight of the Hyper-X Research Vehicle at nearly Mach 10 in November 2004 demonstrated the potential for airbreathing propulsion at hypersonic speeds. The flowpath of the scramjet engine used in the Hyper-X Research Vehicle was developed using computational fluid dynamic based design method in combination with a systematic series of ground tests in the NASA HyPulse Shock Tunnel at conditions duplicating Mach 10 flight. The test model was a true scale height and length of the internal flight engine flowpath that was partial width and truncated fore and aft. Tests were conducted using a mixture of hydrogen augmented with two-percent silane. Silane gas served as an ignition aid during the short duration of the pulse facility tests. The engine inflow values of pressure, temperature, and Mach number were parametrically varied during the ground test entries to broaden the database over the expected uncertainty in the flight conditions. A review of the ground test technique and comparisons of the ground test pressures along with selected data from the third flight are presented.

Rogers, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Computational Framework to Control Verification and Robustness Analysis

This paper presents a methodology for evaluating the robustness of a controller based on its ability to satisfy the design requirements. The framework proposed is generic since it allows for high-fidelity models, arbitrary control structures and arbitrary functional dependencies between the requirements and the uncertain parameters. The cornerstone of this contribution is the ability to bound the region of the uncertain parameter space where the degradation in closed-loop performance remains acceptable. The size of this bounding set, whose geometry can be prescribed according to deterministic or probabilistic uncertainty models, is a measure of robustness. The robustness metrics proposed herein are the parametric safety margin, the reliability index, the failure probability and upper bounds to this probability. The performance observed at the control verification setting, where the assumptions and approximations used for control design may no longer hold, will fully determine the proposed control assessment.

Crespo, Luis G.↗
NASA NTRS2023

New Seawater Dielectric Constant Parametrization and Application to SMOS Retrieved Salinity

The accuracy of the Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) retrieved from L-Band radiometer measurements is strongly dependent on the reliability of the dielectric constant model. Two new parametrizations were recently developed based on one hand on the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite multi-angular brightness temperature measurements by Boutin et al. (2021) (BV), and on the other hand, on new George Washington University laboratory measurements by Zhou et al. (2021) (GW2020). These two approaches are fully independent. For most SSS and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) conditions commonly observed over the open ocean, the relative variations of brightness temperatures Tb simulated through the BV and GW2020 parametrizations agree particularly well, and better than with earlier parametrizations previously used in the SMOS, Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Aquarius SSS retrievals. Nevertheless, uncertainty remains, especially below 10 °C where a ∼ 0.1 K relative difference between the two models is observed. This motivates the development of a revised parameterization, BVZ, based on a methodology similar to that used to derive BV but using GW2020 instead of SMOS measurements. Compared to the GW2020 parameterization, BVZ is derived with a reduced number of degrees of freedom, it relies on the TEOS10 PSS78 conductivity-salinity relationship, and on the previously derived static permittivity of fresh water. One month per season of SMOS data have been reprocessed in 2018 using BV, GW2020, and BVZ. We find the best overall agreement between SMOS SSS and Argo SSS with BVZ parametrization, with noticeable improvement in the 5 °C–15 °C SST range.

sea measurements↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nucleon Mass and Charges with Lattice Quantum Chromodynamics

Neutrino oscillation experiments are designed to measure neutrino masses and mixing parameters by scattering them off nuclei such as carbon, oxygen, and argon in detectors. Predictions of neutrino-nuclei cross sections from the Standard Model are needed to extract these parameters, but their theoretical uncertainties remain large due to the complexity of nuclear and hadronic physics. This situation needs to be improved in order to satisfy the precision needs of future experiments.In this dissertation, we focus on working towards a first-principles calculation of the nucleon axial form factor with lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD). Nucleon axial form factor, which parametrizes the weak responses of a proton or neutron, is difficult to measure experimentally, and it is a dominant uncertainty in neutrino-nuclei cross-section calculations for incoming neutrino energies at around 1 GeV. So a theoretical calculation with lattice QCD provides a non-ambiguous determination of the form factor that could help reducing the uncertainty.The notorious signal-to-noise problem renders calculations of nucleon observables computationally intensive in lattice QCD. In this work, we investigate the use of staggered fermions in nucleon calculations. Staggered fermions are the most computationally efficient fermion discretization in lattice field theory, but certain theoretical issues have so far prevented their applications to nucleon physics. As a stepping stone towards a full calculation of the nucleon axial form factor, this dissertation provides a comprehensive theoretical framework on how to calculate the nucleon mass, vector charge, and axial charge with staggered fermions, together with numerical results demonstrating the methodology. This framework can be generalized to the form factor calculation that will appear in the near future.

Lin, Yin↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying heavy quark transport coefficients with an improved transport model

We report that the heavy-flavor transport coefficients contain important information on the strong interaction at finite temperatures. The extraction of these numbers from experimental data requires dynamical modeling of heavy-flavor transport that is coupled to realistic medium evolution. Furthermore, meaningful extractions necessitate both a faithful implementation of the physical inputs to be tested and the quantification of model uncertainty. For these purposes, we have developed a partonic transport model LIDO. It has an improved treatment of in-medium parton bremsstrahlung, which has been calibrated to theoretical calculations in a simple medium to reduce modeling uncertainty. Regarding the interaction between heavy quark and the medium, few-body perturbative scatterings are applied to large-momentum transfer (q) processes, while a diffusion equation models the dynamics of small-q processes. Such a separation restricts the explicit use of medium quasi-particles to large-q processes only. Another advantage is that deviations from the leading-order probe-medium coupling can be parametrized as an additional contribution to the diffusion constant. The heavy quark transport coefficients are then extracted with uncertainty estimation from a Bayesian analysis including both the RHIC and the LHC data. The results are found to be consistent with earlier extraction of the light-quark transport coefficients at high momentum and be comparable with lattice calculations of the heavy-flavor diffusion constant in the static limit at low momentum.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulating neutron stars with a flexible enthalpy-based equation of state parametrization in sp ECTRE

Numerical simulations of neutron star mergers represent an essential step toward interpreting the full complexity of multimessenger observations and constraining the properties of supranuclear matter. Currently, simulations are limited by an array of factors, including computational performance and input physics uncertainties, such as the neutron star equation of state. In this work, we expand the range of nuclear phenomenology efficiently available to simulations by introducing a new analytic parametrization of cold, beta-equilibrated matter that is based on the relativistic enthalpy. Here we show that the new enthalpy parametrization can capture a range of nuclear behavior, including strong phase transitions. We implement the enthalpy parametrization in the spectre code, simulate isolated neutron stars, and compare performance to the commonly used spectral and polytropic parametrizations. We find comparable computational performance for nuclear models that are well represented by either parametrization, such as simple hadronic equations of state. We show that the enthalpy parametrization further allows us to simulate more complicated hadronic models or models with phase transitions that are inaccessible to current parametrizations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Statistical plant set estimation using Schroeder-phased multisinusoidal input design

A frequency domain method is developed for plant set estimation. The estimation of a plant 'set' rather than a point estimate is required to support many methods of modern robust control design. The approach here is based on using a Schroeder-phased multisinusoid input design which has the special property of placing input energy only at the discrete frequency points used in the computation. A detailed analysis of the statistical properties of the frequency domain estimator is given, leading to exact expressions for the probability distribution of the estimation error, and many important properties. It is shown that, for any nominal parametric plant estimate, one can use these results to construct an overbound on the additive uncertainty to any prescribed statistical confidence. The 'soft' bound thus obtained can be used to replace 'hard' bounds presently used in many robust control analysis and synthesis methods.

Bayard, D. S.↗
NASA NTRS1994

En route noise levels from propfan test assessment airplane

The en route noise test was designed to characterize propagation of propfan noise from cruise altitudes to the ground. In-flight measurements of propfan source levels and directional patterns were made by a chase plane flying in formation with the propfan test assessment (PTA) airplane. Ground noise measurements were taken during repeated flights over a distributed microphone array. The microphone array on the ground was used to provide ensemble-averaged estimates of mean flyover noise levels, establish confidence limits for those means, and measure propagation-induced noise variability. Even for identical nominal cruise conditions, peak sound levels for individual overflights varied substantially about the average, particularly when overflights were performed on different days. Large day-to-day variations in peak level measurements appeared to be caused by large day-to-day differences in propagation conditions and tended to obscure small variations arising from operating conditions. A parametric evaluation of the sensitivity of this prediction method to weather measurement and source level uncertainties was also performed. In general, predictions showed good agreement with measurements. However, the method was unable to predict short-term variability of ensemble-averaged data within individual overflights. Although variations in absorption appear to be the dominant factor in variations of peak sound levels recorded on the ground, accurate predictions of those levels require that a complete description of operational conditions be taken into account. The comprehensive and integrated methods presented in this paper have adequately predicted ground-measured sound levels. On average, peak sound levels were predicted within 3 dB for each of the three different cruise conditions.

Garber, Donald P.↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Probabilistic Approach to Load Modeling for Central HVAC Systems in Large Commercial Buildings for Retrofit Decisions Under Uncertainty

Retrofitting central HVAC systems in large commercial buildings with advanced technologies like heat recovery chillers (HRCs) offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency. However, analyzing these retrofits is challenging with traditional whole-building simulation tools, which require intensive calibration and struggle to model innovative system configurations and controls. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a load profilebased retrofit analysis framework that provides better decisions under uncertainty. The main focus of this paper is the development of a probabilistic load profile model that can be used in the framework by using exploratory data analysis (EDA) of measured building data to properly quantify its inherent variability. A non-parametric Gaussian Process (GP) model was employed to capture the time- and weather-dependent characteristics of the heating load while explicitly modeling its uncertainty. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through strong predictive performance on unseen data and physically interpretable insights into load behavior. This data-driven, probabilistic load profile serves as a robust and flexible input for subsequent system simulations, enabling a more confident and statistically sound analysis of retrofit potential.

Ham, S W↗