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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM)

Abstract. Multi-meter sea level rise (SLR) is thought to be possible within the next few centuries, with most of the uncertainty originating from the Antarctic land ice contribution. One source of uncertainty relates to the ice sheet model initialization. Since ice sheets have a long response time (compared to other Earth system components such as the atmosphere), ice sheet model initialization methods can have significant impacts on how the ice sheet responds to future forcings. To assess this, we generated 25 different ice sheet spin-ups, using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) at a 4 km resolution. During each spin-up, we varied two key parameters known to impact the sensitivity of the ice sheet to future forcing: one related to the sensitivity of the ice shelf melt rate to ocean thermal forcing (TF) and the other related to the basal friction. The spin-ups all nudge toward observed thickness and enforce a no-advance calving criterion, such that all final spin-up states resemble observations but differ in their melt and friction parameter settings. Each spin-up was then forced with future ocean thermal forcings from 13 different CMIP6 models under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)5-8.5 emissions scenario and modern climatological surface mass balance data. Our results show that the effects of the ice sheet and ocean parameter settings used during the spin-up are capable of impacting multi-century future SLR predictions by as much as 2 m. By the end of this century, the effects of these choices are more modest, but still significant, with differences of up to 0.2 m of SLR. We have identified a combined ocean and ice parameter space that leads to widespread mass loss within 500 years (low friction and high melt rate sensitivity). To explore temperature thresholds, we also ran a synthetically forced CISM ensemble that is focused on the Amundsen region only. Given certain ocean and ice parameter choices, Amundsen mass loss can be triggered with thermal forcing anomalies between 1.5 and 2 ∘C relative to the spin-up. Our results emphasize the critical importance of considering ice sheet and ocean parameter choices during spin-up for SLR predictions and suggest the importance of including glacial isostatic adjustment in ice sheet simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Implementation of the University of Miami Wave Model (UMWM) into the NASA/GMAO Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS)

Wind generated waves are integral element in air-sea interactions and affect exchange of momentum, heat, water, gases and production of marine aerosol. Motivated by the need to resolve the air-sea interface we have implemented the University of Miami Wave model (UMWM) into the NASA/GMAO Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS). The implementation of the wave model in GEOS aimed to facilitate coupling with the atmosphere and ocean model components with minimal changes to the existing system, while at the same time ensure correctness of the predicted wave energy spectrum and wave diagnostics. Here we describe the implementation of the GEOS/UMWM system and show results from model experiments and verifications. This work is a step toward development of a coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean GEOS system.

Darmenov, Anton↗
NASA NTRS2013

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation: Global Surface Ocean Carbon Estimates in a Model Forced by MERRA - Volume 31

MERRA products were used to force an established ocean biogeochemical model to estimate surface carbon inventories and fluxes in the global oceans. The results were compared to public archives of in situ carbon data and estimates. The model exhibited skill for ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), partial pressure of ocean CO2 (pCO2) and air-sea fluxes (FCO2). The MERRA-forced model produced global mean differences of 0.02% (approximately 0.3 microns) for DIC, -0.3% (about -1.2 (micro) atm; model lower) for pCO2, and -2.3% (-0.003 mol C/sq m/y) for FCO2 compared to in situ estimates. Basin-scale distributions were significantly correlated with observations for all three variables (r=0.97, 0.76, and 0.73, P<0.05, respectively for DIC, pCO2, and FCO2). All major oceanographic basins were represented as sources to the atmosphere or sinks in agreement with in situ estimates. However, there were substantial basin-scale and local departures.

Gregg, Watson W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Macroalgal Cultivation Modeling System (MACMODS): Evaluating the Role of Physical-Biological Coupling on Nutrients and Farm Yield

Offshore aquaculture has the potential to expand the macroalgal industry. However, moving into deeper waters requires suspended structures that will present novel farm-environment interactions. Here, we present a computational modeling framework, the Macroalgal Cultivation Modeling System (MACMODS), to explore within-farm modifications to light, seawater flow, and nutrient fields across time and space scales relevant to macroalgae. A regional ocean model informs the site-specific setting, the Santa Barbara Channel in the Southern California Bight. A fine-scale hydrodynamic model predicts modified flows and turbulent mixing within the farm. A spatially resolved macroalgal growth model, parameterized for giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera , predicts kelp biomass. Key findings from model integration are that regional ocean conditions set overall farm performance, while fine-scale within-farm circulation and nutrient delivery are important to resolve variation in within-farm macroalgal performance. Therefore, we conclude that models resolving within-farm dynamics can provide benefit to farmers with insight on how farm design and regional ocean conditions interact to influence overall yield. Here, the presence of repeating longlines aligned with the mean current generate flow diversions around the farm as well as attached Langmuir circulations and increased turbulence intensity. These flow-induced phenomena lead to less biomass in the interior portion of the farm relative to the edges. We also find that there is an effluent “footprint” that extends as much as 20 km beyond the farm. In this regard, MACMODS can be used to not only evaluate farm design and cultivation practices that maximize yield but also explore interactions between the farm and ecosystem in order to minimize impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

A Pacific Ocean general circulation model for satellite data assimilation

A tropical Pacific Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) to be used in satellite data assimilation studies is described. The transfer of the OGCM from a CYBER-205 at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to a CRAY-2 at NASA's Ames Research Center is documented. Two 3-year model integrations from identical initial conditions but performed on those two computers are compared. The model simulations are very similar to each other, as expected, but the simulations performed with the higher-precision CRAY-2 is smoother than that with the lower-precision CYBER-205. The CYBER-205 and CRAY-2 use 32 and 64-bit mantissa arithmetic, respectively. The major features of the oceanic circulation in the tropical Pacific, namely the North Equatorial Current, the North Equatorial Countercurrent, the South Equatorial Current, and the Equatorial Undercurrent, are realistically produced and their seasonal cycles are described. The OGCM provides a powerful tool for study of tropical oceans and for the assimilation of satellite altimetry data.

Chao, Y.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Climate Response of Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Black Carbon

The equilibrium climate effect of direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic black carbon (BC) is examined by 100-year simulations in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model II-prime coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. Anthropogenic BC is predicted to raise globally and annually averaged equilibrium surface air temperature by 0.20 K if BC is assumed to be externally mixed. The predicted increase is significantly greater in the Northern Hemisphere (0.29 K) than in the Southern Hemisphere (0.11 K). If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with the present day level of sulfate aerosol, the predicted annual mean surface temperature increase rises to 0.37 K globally, 0.54 K for the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.20 K for the Southern Hemisphere. The climate sensitivity of BC direct radiative forcing is calculated to be 0.6 K W (sup -1) square meters, which is about 70% of that of CO2, independent of the assumption of BC mixing state. The largest surface temperature response occurs over the northern high latitudes during winter and early spring. In the tropics and midlatitudes, the largest temperature increase is predicted to occur in the upper troposphere. Direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic BC is also predicted to lead to a change of precipitation patterns in the tropics; precipitation is predicted to increase between 0 and 20 N and decrease between 0 and 20 S, shifting the intertropical convergence zone northward. If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with sulfate instead of externally mixed, the change in precipitation pattern is enhanced. The change in precipitation pattern is not predicted to alter the global burden of BC significantly because the change occurs predominantly in regions removed from BC sources.

Chung, Serena H.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid-Energy-Powered Electrochemical Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement Model: Plant Operation, Cost, and Profitability

Electrochemical ocean alkalinity enhancement is a form of marine carbon dioxide removal, a rapidly growing industry that is powered by efficient onshore or offshore energy sources. As more and larger deployments are being planned, it is important to consider how variable energy sources like tidal energy can impact plant performance and costs. An open-source Python-based generalizable model for electrodialysis-based ocean alkalinity enhancement has been developed that can capture key system-level insights of the electrochemistry, ocean chemistry, acid disposal, and co-product creation of these plants under various conditions. The model additionally accounts for hybrid energy system performance profiles and costs via the National Laboratory of the Rockies’ H2Integrate tool. The model was used to analyze an example theoretical plant deployment in North Admiralty Inlet, including how the plant is impacted by the available energy sources in the region and the scale at which plant costs are covered by the co-products it generates, such as recycled concrete aggregates, without requiring carbon credits. The results show that the example plant could be profitable without carbon credits at commercial scales of 100,000 to 1 million tons of carbon dioxide removal per year, so long as it uses low-cost electricity sources and either sells acid or recovers recycled concrete aggregates with about 1 molar acid concentrations, though more research is needed to confirm these results.

hybrid energy↗
NASA NTRS1999

Response to CO2 Transient Increase in the GISS Coupled Model: Regional Coolings in a Warming Climate

The (GISS) Goddard Institute for Space Studies coupled atmosphere-ocean model is used to investigate the effect of increased atmospheric CO2 by comparing a compounded 1 percent CO2 increase experiment with a control simulation. After 70 years of integration, the global surface air temperature in the 1 percent CO2 experiment is 1.43 C warmer. In spite of this global warming, there are two distinct regions, the northern Atlantic Ocean and the southern Pacific Ocean, where the surface air temperature is up to 4 C cooler. This situation is maintained by two positive feedbacks: a local effect on convection in the South Pacific and a non-local impact on the meridional circulation in the North Atlantic. The poleward transport of latent energy and dry static energy by the atmosphere is greater in the 1 percent CO2 experiment, caused by warming and therefore increased water vapor and greater greenhouse capacity at lower latitudes. The larger atmospheric transports tend to reduce upward vertical fluxes of heat and moisture from the ocean surface at high latitudes, which has the effect of stabilizing the ocean, reducing both convection and the thermohaline circulation. With less convection, less warm water is brought up from below, and with a reduced North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (by 30 percent at time of CO2 doubling), the poleward energy transport by the oceans decreases. The colder water then leads to further reductions in evaporation, decreases of salinity at high latitudes, continued stabilization of the ocean, and maintenance of reduced convection and meridional overturning. Although sea ice decreases globally, it increases in the cooling regions which reduces the overall climate sensitivity; its effect is most pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere. Tropical warming has been observed over the past several decades; if modeling studies such as this and others which have produced similar effects are valid, these processes may already be beginning.

Russell, Gary L.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Simulations of the mesoscale circulation of the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Seas

The Greenland, Iceland, and Norwegian Seas provide the only link between the North Atlantic and the Arctic Oceans. This is a very dynamic region, rich in mesoscale variability. A two-layer, hydrodynamic version of the Navy layered ocean model is used to simulate the mesoscale frontal features and associated current systems. The model is wind-driven using monthly mean wind stresses and inflow/outflow mass flux from the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans. The current transports from the model results compare favorably with transport measurements from a number of observational experiments.

Heburn, George W.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Tidal Hydrodynamic Model for Cook Inlet, Alaska, to Support Tidal Energy Resource Characterization

Cook Inlet in Alaska has been identified as a prime site in the U.S. for potential tidal energy development, because of its enormous tidal power potential that accounts for nearly one-third of the national total. As one important step to facilitate tidal energy development, a tidal hydrodynamic model based on the unstructured-grid, finite-volume community ocean model (FVCOM) was developed for Cook Inlet to characterize the tidal stream energy resource. The model has a grid resolution that varies from about 1000 m at the open boundary to 100–300 m inside the Inlet. Extensive model validation was achieved by comparing model predictions with field observations for tidal elevation and velocity at various locations in Cook Inlet. The error statistics confirmed the model performs reasonably well in capturing the tidal dynamics in the system, e.g., R2 > 0.98 for tidal elevation and generally > 0.9 for velocity. Model results suggest that tides in Cook Inlet evolve from progressive waves at the entrance to standing waves at the upper Inlet, and that semi-diurnal tidal constituents are amplified more rapidly than diurnal constituents. The model output was used to identify hotspots that have high energy potential and warrant additional velocity and turbulence measurements such as East Foreland, where averaged power density exceeds 5 kw/m2. Lastly, a tidal energy extraction simulation was conducted for a hypothetical turbine farm configuration at the Forelands cross section to evaluate tidal energy extraction and resulting changes in far-field hydrodynamics.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
NASA NTRS2014

Long-Period Tidal Variations in the Length of Day

A new model of long-period tidal variations in length of day is developed. The model comprises 80 spectral lines with periods between 18.6 years and 4.7 days, and it consistently includes effects of mantle anelasticity and dynamic ocean tides for all lines. The anelastic properties followWahr and Bergen; experimental confirmation for their results now exists at the fortnightly period, but there remains uncertainty when extrapolating to the longest periods. The ocean modeling builds on recent work with the fortnightly constituent, which suggests that oceanic tidal angular momentum can be reliably predicted at these periods without data assimilation. This is a critical property when modeling most long-period tides, for which little observational data exist. Dynamic ocean effects are quite pronounced at shortest periods as out-of-phase rotation components become nearly as large as in-phase components. The model is tested against a 20 year time series of space geodetic measurements of length of day. The current international standard model is shown to leave significant residual tidal energy, and the new model is found to mostly eliminate that energy, with especially large variance reduction for constituents Sa, Ssa, Mf, and Mt.

LOD tidal oscillations↗
NASA NTRS2014

Background Error Covariance Estimation using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation into the GEOS-5 Coupled Model

An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

Data Assimilation↗
NASA NTRS2020

GISS‐E2.1: Configurations and Climatology

This paper describes the GISS‐E2.1 contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). This model version differs from the predecessor model (GISS‐E2) chiefly due to parameterization improvements to the atmospheric and ocean model components, while keeping atmospheric resolution the same. Model skill when compared to modern era climatologies is significantly higher than in previous versions. Additionally, updates in forcings have a material impact on the results. In particular, there have been specific improvements in representations of modes of variability (such as the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and other modes in the Pacific) and significant improvements in the simulation of the climate of the Southern Oceans, including sea ice. The effective climate sensitivity to 2xCO2 is slightly higher than previously at 2.7‐‐3.1°C (depending on version), and is a result of lower CO2 radiative forcing and stronger positive feedbacks.

General Circulation Model↗
NASA NTRS1983

TOPEX watershed coming in oceanography

The NASA Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX) will use precision radar altimetry to determine topographic features of the global oceans from which currents may be deduced. TOPEX will coincide with the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE), which will be conducted at the end of this decade and shall involve ships, fixed and drifting buoys, aircraft observations, and satellite remote sensing, to resolve fundamental questions about the flow of water in the global ocean. TOPEX will contribute to WOCE the measurement of satellite height above the sea surface, and the precise radial position above a reference ellipsoid for the earth. The combination of these two measurements with the marine geoid yields the topographic data sought. Three years of topographic data, together with conventional oceanographic data and theoretical ocean models, will be needed to derive the mean and variable components of ocean circulation.

Cleven, G. C.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Determining the Ocean's Role on the Variable Gravity Field on Earth Rotation

A number of ocean models of different complexity have been used to study changes in the oceanic mass field and angular momentum and their relation to the variable Earth rotation and gravity field. Time scales examined range from seasonal to a few days. Results point to the importance of oceanic signals in driving polar motion, in particular the Chandler and annual wobbles. Results also show that oceanic signals have a measurable impact on length-of-day variations. Various circulation features and associated mass signals, including the North Pacific subtropical gyre, the equatorial currents, and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current play a significant role in oceanic angular momentum variability.

Ponte, Rui M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Surface Salinity Under Transitioning Ice Cover in the Canada Basin: Climate Model Biases Linked to Vertical Distribution of Fresh Water

Abstract The Canada Basin has exhibited a significant trend toward a fresher surface layer and thus a more stratified upper‐ocean over the past three decades. State‐of‐the‐art ice‐ocean models, by contrast, tend to simulate a surface layer that is saltier and less stratified than observed. Here, we examine decadal changes to seasonal processes that may contribute to this wide‐reaching model bias using climate model simulations from the Community Earth System Model and below‐ice observations from the Arctic Ice Dynamics Joint Experiment in 1975 and Ice Tethered Profilers in 2006–2012. In contrast to the observations, the models simulate salinity profiles that show relatively little variation between 1975 and 2012. We demonstrate that this bias can be mainly attributed to unrealistically deep vertical mixing in the model, creating a surface layer that is saltier than observed. The results provide insight for climate model improvement with broad implications for Arctic sea ice and ecosystem dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2003

Observed and Modeled Trends in Southern Ocean Sea Ice

Conceptual models and global climate model (GCM) simulations have both indicated the likelihood of an enhanced sensitivity to climate change in the polar regions, derived from the positive feedbacks brought about by the polar abundance of snow and ice surfaces. Some models further indicate that the changes in the polar regions can have a significant impact globally. For instance, 37% of the temperature sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 in simulations with the GCM of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is attributable exclusively to inclusion of sea ice variations in the model calculations. Both sea ice thickness and sea ice extent decrease markedly in the doubled CO, case, thereby allowing the ice feedbacks to occur. Stand-alone sea ice models have shown Southern Ocean hemispherically averaged winter ice-edge retreats of 1.4 deg latitude for each 1 K increase in atmospheric temperatures. Observations, however, show a much more varied Southern Ocean ice cover, both spatially and temporally, than many of the modeled expectations. In fact, the satellite passive-microwave record of Southern Ocean sea ice since late 1978 has revealed overall increases rather than decreases in ice extents, with ice extent trends on the order of 11,000 sq km/year. When broken down spatially, the positive trends are strongest in the Ross Sea, while the trends are negative in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas. Greater spatial detail can be obtained by examining trends in the length of the sea ice season, and those trends show a coherent picture of shortening sea ice seasons throughout almost the entire Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula and in the far western Weddell Sea immediately to the east of the Peninsula, with lengthening sea ice seasons around much of the rest of the continent. This pattern corresponds well with the spatial pattern of temperature trends, as the Peninsula region is the one region in the Antarctic with a strong record of temperature increases. Still, although the patterns of the temperature and ice changes match fairly well, there is a substantial ways to go before these patterns are understood (and can be modeled) in the full context of global change.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Along-Orbit Analysis of GRACE Follow-On Inter-Satellite Laser Ranging Measurements for Sub-Monthly Surface Mass Variations

We examined the sensitivity of GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) laser ranging interferometer (LRI) measurements to sub-monthly time-variable gravity (TVG) signals caused by transient, high-frequency mass changes in the Earth system. GRACE-FO LRI provides complementary inter-satellite ranging measurements with higher precision over a wider range of frequencies than the baseline K-band microwave ranging system. The common approach for studying mass variation relies on the inverted TVG or mascon solutions over a period of, for example, one month or 10 days which are adversely affected by temporal aliasing and/or smoothing. In this article, we present the alternative along-orbit analysis methodology in terms of line-of-sight gravity difference (LGD) to fully exploit the higher precision LRI measurements for examination of sub-monthly mass changes. The discrepancy between “instantaneous” LGD LRI observations and monthly mean LGD (from Level-2 data) at satellite altitude indicates the sub-monthly gravitational variability not captured by monthly-mean solutions. In conjunction with the satellite ocean altimetry observations, high frequency non-tidal atmosphere and ocean models, and hydrology models, we show that the LGD LRI observations detect the high-frequency oceanic mass variability in the Argentine Basin and the Gulf of Carpentaria, and sub-monthly variations in surface (river) water in the Amazon Basin. We demonstrate the benefits gained from repeat ground track analysis of GRACE-FO LRI data in the case of the Amazon surface water flow. The along-orbit analysis methodology based on LGD LRI time series presented here is especially suitable for quantifying temporal and spatial evolution of extreme, rapidly changing mass variations.

Khosro Ghobadi-Far↗