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At least 343 records · Page 19

Learning nonlinear operators in latent spaces for real-time predictions of complex dynamics in physical systems

Abstract Predicting complex dynamics in physical applications governed by partial differential equations in real-time is nearly impossible with traditional numerical simulations due to high computational cost. Neural operators offer a solution by approximating mappings between infinite-dimensional Banach spaces, yet their performance degrades with system size and complexity. We propose an approach for learning neural operators in latent spaces, facilitating real-time predictions for highly nonlinear and multiscale systems on high-dimensional domains. Our method utilizes the deep operator network architecture on a low-dimensional latent space to efficiently approximate underlying operators. Demonstrations on material fracture, fluid flow prediction, and climate modeling highlight superior prediction accuracy and computational efficiency compared to existing methods. Notably, our approach enables approximating large-scale atmospheric flows with millions of degrees, enhancing weather and climate forecasts. Here we show that the proposed approach enables real-time predictions that can facilitate decision-making for a wide range of applications in science and engineering.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Comprehensive Calibration Framework for the Northwest River Forecast Center

We present a comprehensive framework developed by the Northwest River Forecast Center for calibrating hydrologically diverse basins. The framework includes models for snow, soil moisture, routing, channel loss, and consumptive use. Data inputs include a wide range of open-access datasets for meteorology, land use, topography, and land cover. The framework uses conceptual hydrologic models to handle basins with various hydrologic regimes including rain-driven and snowmelt-dominated basins. We also develop a flexible automatic calibration system that can handle numerous unobservable model parameters in a computationally efficient manner. A single-basin automatic calibration run can typically be completed on a modern laptop in under 10 min. We found that model performance metrics for this new approach match the quality of the NWRFC's previous labor-intensive manual calibrations. The model performance also rivals that of a state-of-the-art deep learning model at a fraction of the computational cost. This framework presents a new standard for the quality of calibrations possible with lumped conceptual hydrologic models, combining careful data curation, an objective calibration framework, and expert local knowledge. In addition, we have made software packages available for the entire suite of National Weather Service River Forecast System models, including SAC-SMA, SNOW-17, and Lag-K. These modern interfaces are intended to increase accessibility and facilitate future research.

Forecasting↗

Estimation of Surface Sensible Heat Flux due to Precipitation over CONUS and Its Impact on Urban Extreme Precipitation Modeling

The surface sensible heat flux induced by precipitation (Q P ) is a consequence of the temperature difference between the surface and the rain droplets. Despite its seemingly negligible nature, Q P is frequently omitted from both meteorological and climatological models. Nevertheless, it is important to acknowledge the numerous occasions in which the instantaneous values of Q P can be significant, particularly during extreme precipitation events. This study undertakes a comprehensive assessment of Q P across the contiguous United States (CONUS) utilizing high-resolution reanalysis, observational data, and numerical modeling to examine the influence of Q P on precipitation and the surface energy budget. The findings indicate that the spatial distribution of Q P climatology is analogous to that of precipitation, with magnitudes ranging from 2 to 3 W m -2 predominantly over the Midwest and Southeast regions. A seasonal analysis of QP reveals that the highest values occurring during the June–August (JJA) period, averaging 3.18 W m -2 . Peak Q P values of approximately 4 W m -2 are observed during JJA over the Great Plains region. We hypothesize that the Q P during an extreme precipitation event would be nonnegligible and have a significant impact on the local weather. To test this conjecture, we perform high-resolution simulations with and without Q P during an extreme precipitation event over the Chicago Metropolitan Area (CMA). The results show that the Q P may be a dominant factor compared to other components of surface heat flux during the zenith of precipitation hours. Also, Q P has the potential to not only diminish precipitation but also alter and reconfigure the remaining surface energy budget components.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Expanding the representation of aerosol, cloud, and precipitation processes with graph network-based simulators

We explored a novel framework for simulating the small-scale processes that drive the evolution of aerosol, cloud, and precipitation particles, which are a critical gap in the predictive understanding of weather and climate. Particle-based methods have emerged as an effective tool for modeling aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions, but existing particle-based models are computationally too expensive to simulate the large domains relevant for the atmosphere or to represent the full suite of relevant processes. The lack of a comprehensive and efficient reference model is a critical bottleneck in our understanding of cloud and precipitation processes and our ability to parameterize these processes for regional- and global-scale simulations. To address this need, we explored an approach to accelerate and expand particle-based models using a new machine learning approach, graph network-based simulators (GNS). Rather than modeling the evolution of the system by numerically integrating continuity equations, the GNS represents dynamics through learned message passing. Our aim was to develop fast and accurate surrogate models for particle-based simulations. We explored applying GNS to simulate cloud droplet transport, growth, and evaporation under turbulent conditions, but we found the GNS over-smoothed the simulations. We then applied the GNS to simulate aerosol dynamics through gas condensation and found the GNS was able to reproduce the benchmark, physics-based simulation with high accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones on Future U.S. Offshore Wind Energy

Over 60 participants, including government officials, regulators, certification bodies, national laboratory researchers, academia, and industry representatives, gathered in person twice for a comprehensive discussion on the impacts of extreme weather on large-scale deployment of offshore wind energy for the U.S. The dialogue focused on addressing modeling challenges, the need for detailed observational data, refining risk assessment methodologies, and understanding the implications of climate change.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Geo‐Structurally Based Correction Factor for Apparent Dissolution Rates in Fractured Media

Abstract Field measurements of apparent geochemical weathering reaction rates in subsurface fractured porous media are known to deviate from laboratory measurements by multiple orders of magnitude. To date, there is no geologically based explanation for this discrepancy that can be used to predict reaction rates in field systems. Proposed correction factors are typically based on ad hoc characterizations related to geochemical kinetic models. Through a series of high‐fidelity reactive transport simulations of mineral dissolution within explicit 3D discrete fracture networks, we are able to link the geo‐structural attributes with reactive transport observations. We develop a correction factor to linear transition state theory for the prediction of the apparent dissolution rate based on measurable geological properties. The modified rate law shows excellent agreement with numerical simulations, indicating that geological structure could be a primary reason for the discrepancy between laboratory and field observations of apparent dissolution rates in fractured media.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Interactions Between the Amazonian Rainforest and Cumuli Clouds: A Large‐Eddy Simulation, High‐Resolution ECMWF, and Observational Intercomparison Study

Abstract The explicit coupling at meter and second scales of vegetation's responses to the atmospheric‐boundary layer dynamics drives a dynamic heterogeneity that influences canopy‐top fluxes and cloud formation. Focusing on a representative day during the Amazonian dry season, we investigate the diurnal cycle of energy, moisture and carbon dioxide at the canopy top, and the transition from clear to cloudy conditions. To this end, we compare results from a large‐eddy simulation technique, a high‐resolution global weather model, and a complete observational data set collected during the GoAmazon14/15 campaign. The overall model‐observation comparisons of radiation and canopy‐top fluxes, turbulence, and cloud dynamics are very satisfactory, with all the modeled variables lying within the standard deviation of the monthly aggregated observations. Our analysis indicates that the timing of the change in the daylight carbon exchange, from a sink to a source, remains uncertain and is probably related to the stomata closure caused by the increase in vapor pressure deficit during the afternoon. We demonstrate quantitatively that heat and moisture transport from the subcloud layer into the cloud layer are misrepresented by the global model, yielding low values of specific humidity and thermal instability above the cloud base. Finally, the numerical simulations and observational data are adequate settings for benchmarking more comprehensive studies of plant responses, microphysics, and radiation.

Vilà‐Guerau de Arellano, J.↗

Distributed Energy Resource-Cognizant Upgrade Paths to the Traditional Restoration Strategy of Utilities for Improved Load Restoration

Climate change has resulted in increasingly impactful and more frequent occurrences of extreme weather events. This trend poses a significant challenge for distribution utilities and system operators to ensure that there is uninterrupted power supply to critical loads in their networks under fault scenarios; however, currently, utilities deploying the automated fault location, isolation and restoration (FLISR) function in their advanced distribution management system (ADMS) do not take into account the available generation and load-modification capabilities of distributed energy resources present in the disconnected network due to an upstream isolated fault. This results in the network reconfiguration and restoration to result in sub-optimal load restoration. Therefore, this paper presents two approaches that can upgrade the existing FLISR capabilities of distribution utilities to significantly increase the restoration of critical loads. The performance of the proposed approaches is evaluated on a numerical model of a real distribution feeder in Georgia, USA.

DER↗

Distributed Energy Resource-Cognizant Upgrade Paths to the Traditional Restoration Strategy of Utilities for Improved Load Restoration: Preprint

Climate change has resulted in increasingly impactful and more frequent occurrences of extreme weather events. This trend poses a significant challenge for distribution utilities and system operators to ensure that there is uninterrupted power supply to critical loads in their networks under fault scenarios; however, currently, utilities deploying the automated fault location, isolation and restoration (FLISR) function in their advanced distribution management system (ADMS) do not take into account the available generation and load-modification capabilities of distributed energy resources present in the disconnected network due to an upstream isolated fault. This results in the network reconfiguration and restoration to result in sub-optimal load restoration. Therefore, this paper presents two approaches that can upgrade the existing FLISR capabilities of distribution utilities to significantly increase the restoration of critical loads. The performance of the proposed approaches is evaluated on a numerical model of a real distribution feeder in Georgia, USA.

DER↗

Laboratory Study of the Torus Instability Threshold in Solar-relevant, Line-tied Magnetic Flux Ropes

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occur when long-lived magnetic flux ropes (MFRs) anchored to the solar surface destabilize and erupt away from the Sun. This destabilization is often described in terms of an ideal magnetohydrodynamic instability called the torus instability. It occurs when the external magnetic field decreases sufficiently fast such that its decay index, ${n}_{}=-z\,\partial (\mathrm{ln}{B}_{})/\partial z$, is larger than a critical value, $n\gt {n}_{\mathrm{cr}}^{}$, where ${n}_{\mathrm{cr}}^{}=1.5$ for a full, large aspect ratio torus. However, when this is applied to solar MFRs, a range of conflicting values for ${n}_{\mathrm{cr}}^{}$ is found in the literature. To investigate this discrepancy, we have conducted laboratory experiments on arched, line-tied flux ropes and applied a theoretical model of the torus instability. Our model describes an MFR as a partial torus with foot points anchored in a conducting surface and numerically calculates various magnetic forces on it. This calculation yields better predictions of ${n}_{\mathrm{cr}}^{}$ that take into account the specific parameters of the MFR. Here, we describe a systematic methodology to properly translate laboratory results to their solar counterparts, provided that the MFRs have a sufficiently small edge safety factor or, equivalently, a large enough twist. After this translation, our model predicts that ${n}_{\mathrm{cr}}^{}$ in solar conditions falls near ${n}_{\mathrm{cr}}^{\mathrm{solar}}\sim 0.9$ and within a larger range of ${n}_{\mathrm{cr}}^{\mathrm{solar}}\sim (0.7,1.2)$, depending on the parameters. The methodology of translating laboratory MFRs to their solar counterparts enables quantitative investigations of CME initiation through laboratory experiments. These experiments allow for new physics insights that are required for better predictions of space weather events but are difficult to obtain otherwise.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluating mesoscale model predictions of diurnal speedup events in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area of California

Mesoscale model predictions of wind, turbulence, and wind energy capacity factors are evaluated in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area of California (APWRA), where the diurnal regional sea breeze and associated terrain-driven speedup flows drive wind energy production during the summer months. Results from the Weather Research and Forecasting model version 4.4 using a novel three-dimensional planetary boundary layer (3D PBL) scheme, which treats both vertical and horizontal turbulent mixing, are compared to those using a well-established one-dimensional (1D) scheme that treats only vertical turbulent mixing. Each configuration is evaluated over a nearly 3-month-long period during the Hill Flow Study, and due to the recurring nature of the observed speedup flows, diurnal composite averaging is used to capture robust trends in model performance. Both model configurations showed similar overall skill. The general timing and direction of the speedup flows is captured, but their magnitude is overestimated within a typical wind turbine rotor layer. Both also fail to capture a persistent observed near-surface jet-like flow, likely due to the limited grid resolution that is typical of mesoscale models. However, the 3D PBL configuration shows several minor improvements over the 1D PBL configuration, including improved wind speed and turbulence kinetic energy profiles during the accelerating phase of the speedup events, as well as reduced positive wind speed bias at surface stations across the APWRA region. Using a mesoscale wind farm parameterization, modeled capacity factors are also compared to monthly data reported to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) during the study period. Although the monthly trend in the data is captured, both model configurations overestimate capacity factors by roughly 7 %–11 %. Through model evaluation, this study provides confidence in the 3D PBL scheme for wind energy applications in complex terrain and provides guidance for future testing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Numerical Errors in Ice Microphysics Parameterizations and their Effects on Simulated Regional Climate

The major characteristics of ice microphysics in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Double-Moment 6-class (WDM6) bulk-type cloud microphysics originate from the diagnosed ice number concentration, which is a function of the cloud-ice mixing ratio. In this study, we correct numerical errors in ice microphysics processes of the WDM6, in which the cloud-ice shape is assumed as single bullets and examine the impact on regional climate simulations. Here, by rederiving the relationships between cloud microphysics characteristics, including the one linking the cloud-ice mixing ratio and number concentration, we remove numerical errors intrinsic to the description of cloud-ice characteristics in the original WDM6 microphysics scheme. The revised WDM6 is tested using a WRF framework for regional climate simulations over the East Asian region. We find that our correction to the WDM6 improves the model’s performance in capturing the observed distribution of the monsoon rain band. A reduction in cloud ice is significant in the revised WDM6, which strengthens the Western North Pacific High. By conducting the additional sensitivity experiment in which the characteristics of cloud-ice shape are revised as the one for the column type, our study also finds out that the impacts of the existing numerical errors on the simulated monsoon is as large as the ones of the changes in cloud-ice shape.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of the Four-Dimensional Ensemble-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation with Self-Consistent Regional Background Error Covariance for Improved Hurricane Intensity Forecasts

The feasibility of a hurricane initialization framework based on the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)-based four-dimensional ensemble-variational (GSI-4DEnVar) hybrid data assimilation system for the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) model is evaluated in this study. The system considers the temporal evolution of error covariances via the use of four-dimensional ensemble perturbations that are provided by high-resolution, self-consistent HWRF ensemble forecasts. It is different from the configuration of the GSI-based three-dimensional ensemble-variational (GSI-3DEnVar) hybrid data assimilation system, similar to that used in the operational HWRF, which employs background error covariances provided by coarser-resolution global ensembles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) ensemble Kalman filtering data assimilation system. In addition, our proposed initialization framework discards the empirical intensity correction in the vortex initialization package that is employed by the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework in operational HWRF. Data assimilation and numerical simulation experiments for Hurricanes Joaquin (2015), Patricia (2015), and Matthew (2016) are conducted during their intensity changes. The impacts of two initialization frameworks on the HWRF analyses and forecasts are compared. It is found that GSI-4DEnVar leads to a reduction in track, minimum sea level pressure (MSLP), and maximum surface wind (MSW) forecast errors in all of the HWRF simulations, compared with the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework. With assimilating high-resolution observations within the hurricane inner-core region, GSI-4DEnVar can produce the initial hurricane intensity reasonably well without the empirical vortex intensity correction. Further diagnoses with Hurricane Joaquin indicate that GSI-4DEnVar can significantly alleviate the imbalances in the initial conditions and enhance the performance of the data assimilation and subsequent hurricane intensity and precipitation forecasts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Uncertainties in Modeling Wind Resource Data from Different PBL Schemes in the WRF Model: A Case Study Over the Puerto Rico Region

This study examines the modeling uncertainty of wind resource data stemming from the use of various planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF-based wind simulations spanning 20 years at 3-km resolution using 11 different PBL schemes are used to objectively investigate the uncertainty in modeling wind speed for land-based wind (LBW) and offshore wind (OSW) locations in Puerto Rico. The uncertainty in the wind modeling for the 20-year dataset is quantified using the spread index (SI) and standard deviation (SD). For virtual LBW and OSW sites, the SI and SD values are analyzed as calculated across various spatial and temporal scales. Because the PBL's atmospheric stability conditions can be characterized into two dominant categories, the study focuses on analyzing the SI and SD for daytime (mainly unstable PBL conditions) and nighttime (mainly stable PBL conditions). For wind shear (10 m-200 m) at the OSW and LBW sites, WRF-based numerical experiments indicate the following SI (or SD) ranges: 39%-94% (0.74 m/s-1.44 m/s) during the daytime for OSW, 50%-75% (0.68 m/s-1.19 m/s) during the daytime for LBW, 37%-60% (0.73 m/s-1.12 m/s) during the nighttime for OSW, and 57%-143 % (0.65 m/s-1.43 m/s) during the nighttime for LBW. While a high SI is observed when modeling LBW during the nighttime, there are notable modeling uncertainties during the daytime on the leeward side of the orographic barriers for Puerto Rico.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Machine Learning Correction Model of the Winter Clear-Sky Temperature Bias over the Arctic Sea Ice in Atmospheric Reanalyses

Atmospheric reanalyses are widely used to estimate the past atmospheric near-surface state over sea ice. They provide boundary conditions for sea ice and ocean numerical simulations and relevant information for studying polar variability and anthropogenic climate change. Previous research revealed the existence of large near-surface temperature biases (mostly warm) over the Arctic sea ice in the current generation of atmospheric reanalyses, which is linked to a poor representation of the snow over the sea ice and the stably stratified boundary layer in the forecast models used to produce the reanalyses. These errors can compromise the employment of reanalysis products in support of polar research. Here, we train a fully connected neural network that learns from remote sensing infrared temperature observations to correct the existing generation of uncoupled atmospheric reanalyses (ERA5, JRA-55) based on a set of sea ice and atmospheric predictors, which are themselves reanalysis products. The advantages of the proposed correction scheme over previous calibration attempts are the consideration of the synoptic weather and cloud state, compatibility of the predictors with the mechanism responsible for the bias, and a self-emerging seasonality and multidecadal trend consistent with the declining sea ice state in the Arctic. The correction leads on average to a 27% temperature bias reduction for ERA5 and 7% for JRA-55 if compared to independent in situ observations from the MOSAiC campaign (respectively, 32% and 10% under clear-sky conditions). These improvements can be beneficial for forced sea ice and ocean simulations, which rely on reanalyses surface fields as boundary conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observation and Simulation of Methane Plumes During the Morning Boundary Layer Transition

Abstract Methane (CH 4 ) contributes significantly to global warming. However, accurate identification of CH 4 sources for reducing CH 4 emissions is often hampered by inadequate accuracy and spatiotemporal coverage of CH 4 detection, and lack of accurate CH 4 forward modeling used in top‐down inversion systems. In this study, a field experiment was conducted in Pampa, Texas using two CH 4 sensors (LI‐COR and OGI camera) to detect CH 4 releases. We investigated whether high‐resolution simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with greenhouse gases (WRF‐GHG) could accurately simulate the CH 4 plumes in the presence of evolving atmospheric boundary layer from sunrise to noon. CH 4 plumes showed substantial variation in time. At a release rate of ∼17.5 kg hr −1 , the maximum enhancement of CH 4 measured by LI‐COR was 2.6 ppm at sunrise (7:36 a.m.), 250 m from the release location. Within half an hour after sunrise, this enhancement decreased to 0.3–0.4 ppm. The enhancement was 0.2 ppm by 10:00 a.m. and further dropped to less than 0.1 ppm after 11:30 a.m. Due to the low temperature at sunrise, the OGI camera failed to detect the CH 4 plume. The WRF‐GHG large‐eddy simulation (LES) with 32 m grid spacing successfully reproduced these CH 4 enhancements. In situ measurements together with numerical simulations illustrate the impact of the transition from a stable boundary layer in the early morning to a convective boundary layer at noon on the dispersion of CH 4 plumes. Additionally, CH 4 plumes from a cattle farm in Oklahoma are briefly examined using the same modeling approach.

Hu, Xiao‐Ming [Center for Analysis and Prediction ↗

Structure of Offshore Low-Level Jet Turbulence and Implications to Mesoscale-to-Microscale Coupling

This paper explores realistic nonstationary atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) turbulence arising from nonstationarity at the mesoscale, particularly within offshore low-level jets with implications to offshore wind farms, using high-fidelity multiscale large-eddy simulations (LES). To this end, we analyzed the single-point turbulence statistical structure of a North-Atlantic offshore LLJ event simulated using high-resolution LES (AMR-Wind). The nonstationary LLJ is simulated using a mesoscale-to-microscale coupled (MMC) simulation procedure involving data assimilation of mesoscale velocity and temperature data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Unlike the assimilation of mesoscale velocity data into the LES, the direct assimilation of temperature profiles had a strong impact on turbulence stratification, thereby causing erroneous predictions of turbulence both above and within the jet layer. Various approaches to mitigate this effect have resulted in multiple (four) variants of this MMC strategy. Outcomes from this work clearly show that the turbulence within the low-level jet is a strong function of the MMC approach as the turbulence structure within the low-level jet is dependent on the flux of residual turbulence from outside the jet, which in turn depends on the temperature forcing history. Additionally, the turbulence predicted by all these different methods (as well as the observation data) show similar deviations from equilibrium as evidenced by comparisons with idealized atmospheric turbulence structure obtained using the same numerical method. In general, we observe that the predicted LLJ turbulence tends to differ from canonical ABL turbulence with comparable shear. Particularly, the combination of shear and turbulence observed in such nonstationary low-level turbulence cannot be matched using equilibrium settings and therefore, represents a critical use-case for both testing and leveraging meso–micro coupling strategies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Stochastic Unit Commitment: Model Reduction via Learning

As weather-dependent renewable generation increases its share in the generation mix of most electric energy systems, a stochastic unit commitment becomes the natural day-ahead scheduling tool. However, such a tool is generally computationally intractable if a detailed uncertainty description is considered. Taking this into account, we proposed a learning method to make the stochastic unit commitment problem tractable. Here, recent advances in statistical learning and machine learning to address optimization problems can be advantageously applied to the rather intractable stochastic unit commitment problem. Considering these advances, we explore simple learning techniques to drastically reduce the size of a stochastic unit commitment problem without significantly altering its optimal solution. The considered stochastic unit commitment problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic programming problem. The first stage represents commitment decisions, while the second one represents the operation conditions under different scenarios. Taking into account historical solved instances (or proxies for them), we reduce the size (measured by numbers of constraints and variables) of the stochastic unit commitment problem by (i) fixing unchanged binary variables and by (ii) eliminating inactive inequality constraints. Our numerical results show that the reduced problem generally requires significantly less time to solve while obtaining high-quality solutions, which are very close to or indistinguishable from the one obtained by solving the original problem. We use an Illinois 200-bus system to illustrate and characterize the performance of the proposed problem-reduction method.

42 ENGINEERING↗