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At least 343 records · Page 19

Reliable machine prognostic health management in the presence of missing data

Prognostics and health management enables the prediction of future degradation and remaining useful life (RUL) for in-service systems based on historical and contemporary data, showing promise for many practical applications. One major challenge for prognostics is the common occurrence of missing values in time-series data, often caused by disruptions in sensor communication or hardware/software failures. Another major concern is that the sufficient prior knowledge of critical component degradation with a clear failure threshold is often not readily available in practice. These issues can significantly hinder the application of advanced signal and data analysis methods and consequently degrade the health management performance. In this article, we propose a novel data-driven framework that is capable of providing accurate and reliable predictions of degradation and RUL. In this approach, one-hot health state indicators are appended to the historical time series so that the model learns end-of-life automatically. A modified gate recurrent unit based variational autoencoder is employed in generative adversarial networks to model the temporal irregularity of the incomplete time series. Furthermore, experiments on multivariate time-series datasets collected from real-world aeroengines verify that significant performance improvement can be achieved using the proposed model for robust long-term prognostics.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Quantification of the REE 3+ aqua ions and chloride species in aqueous fluids by in situ Raman spectroscopy using perturbations of the water band

Acidic NaCl-rich aqueous fluids play a crucial role in forming hydrothermal rare earth elements (REE) mineral deposits. Aqueous REE mobility is mostly controlled by the stabilities of REE 3+ and REE chloride species. Our current knowledge of REE speciation is based on solubility data, thermodynamic models and in situ spectroscopic measurements, sometimes coupled with molecular simulations. Here, in this study, we investigate Nd and Yb speciation in pH2 Cl-bearing solutions at 25 °C and 0.1 MPa with variable Cl/REE ratios using Raman Spectroscopy in solutions with 0.1 to 0.6 mol/kg NdCl 3 or YbCl 3 and 0.2 to 3.2 mol/kg NaCl. Due to the challenges in resolving the REE-Cl band, we developed a new method using the water vibrational mode and multivariate curve resolution (MCR) analysis. The Raman spectra for the vibrational band of water (2700 to 3900 cm –1 ) were collected at 25 °C and fitted by three Gaussian sub-peaks, then quantified using MCR analysis to de-convolute the water band into bulk H 2 O and the perturbations caused by of Cl – , REE 3+ , and REE chloride species. REE speciation based on the perturbations of the water band indicates that REE 3+ aqua ions dominate acidic solutions at 25 °C, but up to ~20 mol% YbCl 2+ forms at high YbCl 3 concentrations. The new method is promising for quantifying in situ speciation of the REE 3+ aqua ions and REE chloride species in aqueous fluids while providing information on the hydration of ions. This method improves our molecular level understanding of REE aqueous species stability and their role in REE mobilization during fluid-rock interaction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Advanced Visualization for Scientific Data Analysis and Insight [Slides]

This talk will explore how we have used advanced visualization technologies to support analytical reasoning and knowledge discovery. Specifically, we will present several examples detailing some recent scientific successes using state-of-the-art immersive and high-resolution visualization at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Computational Science Center. On multiple occasions, we have observed scientists and engineers discover features in their data using advanced visualization technologies that they had not seen in prior investigations of their data on traditional desktop displays. We have embedded more information into our analytics tools, allowing engineers to explore complex multivariate spaces. We have observed how interactions seem to catalyze understanding.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Diurnal Variability of Vertical Structure from a TRMM Passive Microwave "Virtual Radar" Retrieval

Robust description of the diurnal cycle from TRMM observations is complicated by the limitations of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) sampling; from a 'climatological' perspective, sufficient sampling must exist to control for both spatial and seasonal variability, before tackling an additional diurnal component (e.g., with 8 additional 3-hourly or 24 1-hourly bins). For documentation of vertical structure, the narrow sample swath of the TRMM Precipitation Radar limits the resolution of any of these components. A neural-network based 'virtual radar" retrieval has been trained and internally validated, using multifrequency / multipolarization passive microwave(TM1) brightness temperatures and textures parameters and lightning (LIS) observations, as inputs, and PR volumetric reflectivity as targets (outputs). By training the algorithms (essentially highly multivariate, nonlinear regressions) on a very large sample of high-quality co-located data from the center of the TRMM swath, 3D radar reflectivity and derived parameters (VIL, IWC, Echo Tops, etc.) can be retrieved across the entire TMI swath, good to 8-9% over the dynamic range of parameters. As a step in the retrieval (and as an output of the process), each TMI multifrequency pixel (at 85 GHz resolution) is classified into one of the 25 archetypal radar profile vertical structure "types", previously identified using cluster analysis. The dynamic range of retrieved vertical structure appears to have higher fidelity than the current (Version 6) experimental GPROF hydrometeor vertical structure retrievals. This is attributable to correct representation of the prior probabilities of vertical structure variability in the neural network training data, unlike the GPROF cloud-resolving model training dataset used in the V6 algorithms. The LIS lightning inputs are supplementary inputs, and a separate offline neural network has been trained to impute (predict) LIS lightning from passive-microwave-only data. The virtual radar retrieval is thus, in principle, extensible to Aqua/AMSR-E and NPOESS/CMIS passive microwave instruments. The virtual radar approach yields a threefold increase in effective sampling from the mission, albeit of lower-quality "retrieved" data, reducing the variance of local estimates by one third (or the standard deviation by-0.57). In this talk, the variance reduction is leveraged to more finely resolve global diurnal variability in both space and time (local hour).

Boccippio, Dennis J.↗

Principal Modes of Precipitation Variability from Preliminary Series of IMERG Data

The Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, IMERG, is the unified U.S. algorithm that provides merged Microwave Infrared (IR) satellite precipitation product for the U.S. GPM team. Even though IMERG record is still very short, 2014-2016, it is tempting to test if it captures ENSO and NAO signals as compared to the popular, still on-going, TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis, TMPA. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most significant mode of interannual variability of tropical ocean atmosphere. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) impact is on monthly scales and is mostly an atmospheric mode in the North Atlantic. There exist well-defined, multivariate, indexes that represent ENSO and NAO conditions and phase.

climate variability↗

Evidence for top quark production in nucleus-nucleus collisions

We report droplets of quark-gluon plasma (QGP), an exotic state of strongly interacting quantum chromodynamics (QCD) matter, are routinely produced in heavy nuclei high-energy collisions. Although the experimental signatures marked a paradigm shift away from expectations of a weakly coupled QGP, a challenge remains as to how the locally deconfined state with a lifetime of a few fm can be resolved. The only colored particle that decays mostly within the QGP is the top quark. Here we demonstrate, for the first time, that top quark decay products are identified, irrespective of whether interacting with the medium (bottom quarks) or not (leptonically decaying W bosons). Using 1.7±0.1 nb -1 of lead-lead (A = 208) collision data recorded by the CMS experiment at a nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV, we report evidence of top quark pair ($t\bar{t}$) production. Dilepton final states are selected, and the cross section ($σ_{t\bar{t}}$) is measured from a likelihood fit to a multivariate discriminator using lepton kinematic variables. The $σ_{t\bar{t}}$ measurement is additionally performed considering the jets originating from the hadronization of bottom quarks, which improve the sensitivity to the $t\bar{t}$ signal process. After background subtraction and analysis corrections, the measured $σ_{t\bar{t}}$ is 2.56 ± 0.82(tot) and 2.02 ± 0.69(tot)μb in the two cases, respectively, consistent with predictions from perturbative QCD.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Pregnancy outcome after first trimester exposure to domperidone—An observational cohort study

Abstract Aim To assess the teratogenic risk of domperidone by comparing the incidence of major malformation with domperidone to a control. Methods Pregnancy outcome data were obtained for women at two Japanese facilities that provide counseling on drug use during pregnancy between April 1988 and December 2017. The incidence of major malformation was calculated among infants born to women taking domperidone ( n = 519), nonteratogenic drugs (control, n = 1673), or metoclopramide (reference, n = 241) during the first trimester of pregnancy. Using the control group as reference, the crude odds ratio (OR) of the incidence of major malformation in the domperidone and metoclopramide groups was calculated using univariable logistic regression analysis. Adjusted OR was also calculated using multivariable logistic regression analysis adjusted for various other factors. Results The incidence of major malformation was 2.9% (14/485, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.6–4.8) in the domperidone group, 1.7% (27/1554, 95%CI: 1.1–2.5) in the control group, and 3.6% (8/224, 95%CI: 1.6–6.9) in the metoclopramide group. The adjusted multivariable logistic regression analysis showed no significant difference in incidence between the control and domperidone groups (adjusted OR: 1.86 [95%CI: 0.73–4.70], p = 0.191) or between the control and metoclopramide groups (adjusted OR: 2.20 [95%CI: 0.69–6.98], p = 0.183). Conclusions This observational cohort study showed that domperidone exposure during the first trimester was not associated with increased risk of major malformation in infants. These results may help alleviate the anxiety of patients who took domperidone during pregnancy.

Hishinuma, Kayoko↗

National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI) JSC Summer Projects

This project optimized the calorie content in a breakfast meal replacement bar for the Advanced Food Technology group. Use of multivariable optimization yielded the highest weight savings possible while simultaneously matching NASA Human Standards nutritional guidelines. The scope of this research included the study of shelf-life indicators such as water activity, moisture content, and texture analysis. Key metrics indicate higher protein content, higher caloric density, and greater mass savings as a result of the reformulation process. The optimization performed for this study demonstrated wide application to other food bars in the Advanced Food Technology portfolio. Recommendations for future work include shelf life studies on bar hardening and overall acceptability data over increased time frames and temperature fluctuation scenarios.

Dowdy, Forrest Ryan↗

Identifying environmental features for land management decisions

Multivariate statistical analysis and imaging processing techniques are being applied to the study of arid/semiarid environments, with emphasis on desertification. Field level indicators of land-soil biota degradation are being sifted out with staging up to the low aircraft reconnaissance level, to LANDSAT TM & MSS, and even to the AVHRR level. Three completed projects are reviewed: riparian habitat on the Humboldt River floodplain, Salt Lake County Urban expansion detection, and salinization/desertification detection in the delta area. Beginning projects summarized include: comparative condition of rangeland in Rush Valley; modeling a GIS/remote sensing data base for Cache County; universal soil loss equation applied to Pinyon-Juniper; relating MSS to ground radiometry near Battle Mountain; and riparian habitat mapping on Mary's River, Nevada.

Source record↗

Comparison of Two Load Prediction Methods for Strain-Gage Balances

Data from a high-capacity semi-span balance is used to perform a detailed comparison of the load prediction accuracy of two strain-gage balance load prediction methods. Both methods independently obtain their load prediction equations from multivariate least squares fits of balance calibration data. The first method is called Non-Iterative Method. This approach directly uses regression models of the individual load components of a balance for the load prediction. The second method is called Iterative Method. This alternate approach uses a load iteration equation for the load prediction that is constructed from the regression models of the gage outputs of the balance. Basic characteristics of the two methods are reviewed. Afterwards, both methods are applied to calibration and check load data of the chosen balance. Finally, selected analysis results are compared. These comparisons confirmed that the load prediction accuracy of the two methods is the same for all practical purposes.

wind tunnel test↗

Using Clustering to Establish Climate Regimes from PCM Output

A multivariate statistical clustering technique--based on the k-means algorithm of Hartigan has been used to extract patterns of climatological significance from 200 years of general circulation model (GCM) output. Originally developed and implemented on a Beowulf-style parallel computer constructed by Hoffman and Hargrove from surplus commodity desktop PCs, the high performance parallel clustering algorithm was previously applied to the derivation of ecoregions from map stacks of 9 and 25 geophysical conditions or variables for the conterminous U.S. at a resolution of 1 sq km. Now applied both across space and through time, the clustering technique yields temporally-varying climate regimes predicted by transient runs of the Parallel Climate Model (PCM). Using a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and clustering four fields of significance to the global water cycle (surface temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and snow depth) from 1871 through 2098, the authors' analysis shows an increase in spatial area occupied by the cluster or climate regime which typifies desert regions (i.e., an increase in desertification) and a decrease in the spatial area occupied by the climate regime typifying winter-time high latitude perma-frost regions. The patterns of cluster changes have been analyzed to understand the predicted variability in the water cycle on global and continental scales. In addition, representative climate regimes were determined by taking three 10-year averages of the fields 100 years apart for northern hemisphere winter (December, January, and February) and summer (June, July, and August). The result is global maps of typical seasonal climate regimes for 100 years in the past, for the present, and for 100 years into the future. Using three-dimensional data or phase space representations of these climate regimes (i.e., the cluster centroids), the authors demonstrate the portion of this phase space occupied by the land surface at all points in space and time. Any single spot on the globe will exist in one of these climate regimes at any single point in time. By incrementing time, that same spot will trace out a trajectory or orbit between and among these climate regimes (or atmospheric states) in phase (or state) space. When a geographic region enters a state it never previously visited, a climatic change is said to have occurred. Tracing out the entire trajectory of a single spot on the globe yields a 'manifold' in state space representing the shape of its predicted climate occupancy. This sort of analysis enables a researcher to more easily grasp the multivariate behavior of the climate system.

Oglesby, Robert↗

Generic and ML Workloads in an HPC Datacenter: Node Energy, Job Failures, and Node-Job Analysis

HPC datacenters offer a backbone to the modern digital society. Increasingly, they run Machine Learning (ML) jobs next to generic, compute-intensive workloads, supporting science, business, and other decision-making processes. However, understanding how ML jobs impact the operation of HPC datacenters, relative to generic jobs, remains desirable but understudied. In this work, we leverage long-term operational data, collected from a national-scale production HPC datacenter, and statistically compare how ML and generic jobs can impact the performance, failures, resource utilization, and energy consumption of HPC datacenters. Our study provides key insights, e.g., ML-related power usage causes GPU nodes to run into temperature limitations, median/mean runtime and failure rates are higher for ML jobs than for generic jobs, both ML and generic jobs exhibit highly variable arrival processes and resource demands, significant amounts of energy are spent on unsuccessfully terminating jobs, and concurrent jobs tend to terminate in the same state. We open-source our cleaned-up data traces on Zenodo (https://doi. org/10.5281/zenodo.13685426), and provide our analysis toolkit as software hosted on GitHub (https://github.com/atlarge-research/2024-icpads-hpc-workload-characterization). This study offers multiple benefits for data center administrators, who can improve operational efficiency, and for researchers, who can further improve system designs, scheduling techniques, etc.

crossanalysis↗

Assessment of Demographic, Genetic, and Imaging Variables Associated With Brain Resilience and Cognitive Resilience to Pathological Tau in Patients With Alzheimer Disease

Importance: Better understanding is needed of the degree to which individuals tolerate Alzheimer disease (AD)-like pathological tau with respect to brain structure (brain resilience) and cognition (cognitive resilience). Objective: To examine the demographic (age, sex, and educational level), genetic (APOE-ε4 status), and neuroimaging (white matter hyperintensities and cortical thickness) factors associated with interindividual differences in brain and cognitive resilience to tau positron emission tomography (PET) load and to changes in global cognition over time. Design, setting, an participants: In this cross-sectional, longitudinal study, tau PET was performed from June 1, 2014, to November 30, 2017, and global cognition monitored for a mean [SD] interval of 2.0 [1.8] years at 3 dementia centers in South Korea, Sweden, and the United States. The study included amyloid-β-positive participants with mild cognitive impairment or AD dementia. Data analysis was performed from October 26, 2018, to December 11, 2019. Exposures: Standard dementia screening, cognitive testing, brain magnetic resonance imaging, amyloid-β PET and cerebrospinal fluid analysis, and flortaucipir (tau) labeled with fluor-18 (18F) PET. Main outcomes and measures: Separate linear regression models were performed between whole cortex [18F]flortaucipir uptake and cortical thickness, and standardized residuals were used to obtain a measure of brain resilience. The same procedure was performed for whole cortex [18F]flortaucipir uptake vs Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) as a measure of cognitive resilience. Bivariate and multivariable linear regression models were conducted with age, sex, educational level, APOE-ε4 status, white matter hyperintensity volumes, and cortical thickness as independent variables and brain and cognitive resilience measures as dependent variables. Linear mixed models were performed to examine whether changes in MMSE scores over time differed as a function of a combined brain and cognitive resilience variable. Results: A total of 260 participants (145 [55.8%] female; mean [SD] age, 69.2 [9.5] years; mean [SD] MMSE score, 21.9 [5.5]) were included in the study. In multivariable models, women (standardized β = -0.15, P = .02) and young patients (standardized β = -0.20, P = .006) had greater brain resilience to pathological tau. Higher educational level (standardized β = 0.23, P < .001) and global cortical thickness (standardized β = 0.23, P < .001) were associated with greater cognitive resilience to pathological tau. Linear mixed models indicated a significant interaction of brain resilience × cognitive resilience × time on MMSE (β [SE] = -0.235 [0.111], P = .03), with steepest slopes for individuals with both low brain and cognitive resilience. Conclusions and relevance: Results of this study suggest that women and young patients with AD have relative preservation of brain structure when exposed to neocortical pathological tau. Interindividual differences in resilience to pathological tau may be important to disease progression because participants with both low brain and cognitive resilience had the most rapid cognitive decline over time.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Analysis of Inlier and Outlier Compounds with Respect to Artificial Neural Network Cetane Number Prediction Accuracy

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are exceptional at forming non-linear correlations between multivariate input and target variables; however, they are often seen as a “black box” approach, since how ANNs form these correlations is somewhat ambiguous. Furthermore, the process underlying how ANNs learn from inlier and outlier samples within the input dataset is not fully understood. Intuitively, it is expected that training ANNs with inlier samples will increase prediction accuracy and training with outlier samples will reduce prediction accuracy; though, in practice, this is not always true. The present work identifies and analyzes inliers and outliers of existing experimental cetane number (CN) data encompassing a variety of compounds and compound groups. It also investigates how ANNs trained to predict CN perform with and without outliers included in the training data, and whether a relationship exists between inliers/outliers and ANN prediction accuracy across the whole dataset and for individual samples. Additionally, individual outlier compounds are analyzed, highlighting how they structurally differ from inlier compounds.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Investigating Stable Oxygen and Carbon Isotopic Variability in Speleothem Records Over the Last Millennium Using Multiple Isotope-Enabled Climate Models

The incorporation of water isotopologues into the hydrology of general circulation models (GCMs) facilitates the comparison between modeled and measured proxy data in paleoclimate archives. However, the variability and drivers of measured and modeled water isotopologues, as well as the diversity of their representation in different models, are not well constrained. Improving our understanding of this variability in past and present climates will help to better constrain future climate change projections and decrease their range of uncertainty. Speleothems are a precisely datable terrestrial paleoclimate archives and provide well-preserved (semi-)continuous multivariate isotope time series in the lower latitudes and mid-latitudes and are therefore well suited to assess climate and isotope variability on decadal and longer timescales. However, the relationships of speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopes to climate variables are influenced by site-specific parameters, and their comparison to GCMs is not always straightforward. Here we compare speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopic signatures from the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis database version 2 (SISALv2) to the output of five different water-isotope-enabled GCMs (ECHAM5-wiso, GISS-E2-R, iCESM, iHadCM3, and isoGSM) over the last millennium (850–1850 CE). We systematically evaluate differences and commonalities between the standardized model simulation outputs. The goal is to distinguish climatic drivers of variability for modeled isotopes and compare them to those of measured isotopes. We find strong regional differences in the oxygen isotope signatures between models that can partly be attributed to differences in modeled surface temperature. At low latitudes, precipitation amount is the dominant driver for stable water isotope variability; however, at cave locations the agreement between modeled temperature variability is higher than for precipitation variability. While modeled isotopic signatures at cave locations exhibited extreme events coinciding with changes in volcanic and solar forcing, such fingerprints are not apparent in the speleothem isotopes. This may be attributed to the lower temporal resolution of speleothem records compared to the events that are to be detected. Using spectral analysis, we can show that all models underestimate decadal and longer variability compared to speleothems (albeit to varying extents). We found that no model excels in all analyzed comparisons, although some perform better than the others in either mean or variability. Therefore, we advise a multi-model approach whenever comparing proxy data to modeled data. Considering karst and cave internal processes, e.g., through isotope-enabled karst models, may alter the variability in speleothem isotopes and play an important role in determining the most appropriate model. By exploring new ways of analyzing the relationship between the oxygen and carbon isotopes, their variability, and co-variability across timescales, we provide methods that may serve as a baseline for future studies with different models using, e.g., different isotopes, different climate archives, or different time periods.

isotope-enabled simulations↗

Emergency department overcrowding and its associated factors at HARME medical emergency center in Eastern Ethiopia

Introduction: Emergency department (ED) overcrowding has become a significant concern as it can lead to compromised patient care in emergency settings. Various tools have been used to evaluate overcrowding in ED. However, there is a lack of data regarding this issue in resource-limited countries, including Ethiopia. This study aimed to validate NEDOCS, assess level of ED overcrowding and identify associated factors at HARME Medical Emergency Center, located in Hiwot Fana Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Harar, Ethiopia. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted at the HARME Medical Emergency Center, Hiwot Fana Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, involving a total of 899 patients during 120 sampling intervals. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the agreement between objective and subjective assessments of ED overcrowding. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was employed to identify factors associated with ED overcrowding and statistically significant association was declared using 95% confidence level and a p-value < 0.05. Results: The interrater agreement showed a strong correlation with a Cohen's kappa (κ) of 0.80. The National Emergency Department Overcrowding Study Score demonstrated a strong association with subjective assessments from residents and case team nurses, with an AUC of 0.81 and 0.79, respectively. According to residents' perceptions, ED were considered overcrowded 65.8% of the time. Factors significantly associated with ED overcrowding included waiting time for triage (AOR: 2.24; 95% CI: 1.54–3.27), working time (AOR: 2.23; 95% CI: 1.52–3.26), length of stay (AOR: 2.40; 95% CI: 1.27–4.54), saturation level (AOR: 2.35; 95% CI: 1.31–4.20), chronic illness (AOR: 2.19; 95% CI: 1.37–3.53), and abnormal pulse rate (AOR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.06–2.16). Conclusion: The study revealed that ED were overcrowded approximately two-thirds of the time.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

teemi: An open-source literate programming approach for iterative design-build-test-learn cycles in bioengineering

Synthetic biology dictates the data-driven engineering of biocatalysis, cellular functions, and organism behavior. Integral to synthetic biology is the aspiration to efficiently find, access, interoperate, and reuse high-quality data on genotype-phenotype relationships of native and engineered biosystems under FAIR principles, and from this facilitate forward-engineering strategies. However, biology is complex at the regulatory level, and noisy at the operational level, thus necessitating systematic and diligent data handling at all levels of the design, build, and test phases in order to maximize learning in the iterative design-build-test-learn engineering cycle. To enable user-friendly simulation, organization, and guidance for the engineering of biosystems, we have developed an open-source python-based computer-aided design and analysis platform operating under a literate programming user-interface hosted on Github. The platform is called teemi and is fully compliant with FAIR principles. In this study we apply teemi for i) designing and simulating bioengineering, ii) integrating and analyzing multivariate datasets, and iii) machine-learning for predictive engineering of metabolic pathway designs for production of a key precursor to medicinal alkaloids in yeast. The teemi platform is publicly available at PyPi and GitHub.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗