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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

An alternate approach to ensemble ENSO forecast spread: Application to the 2014 forecast

Abstract Evaluating the 2014 El Niño forecast as a “bust” may be tapping into a bigger issue, namely that forecast “overconfidence” from single‐model ensembles could affect the retrospective assessment of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. The present study proposes a new approach to quantifying an “expected” spread and uncertainty from noise‐driven processes and supplementing these measures with actual ENSO forecasts. Expanding on a previously developed coupled model framework that isolates noise‐driven ENSO‐like errors, an experimental design is implemented to generate an expected December Niño‐3.4 spread from March initial condition sea surface temperature errors that have similar structure to the 2014 and 2015 observed. Results reveal that the 2014 ENSO forecast falls within the expected uncertainty generated by ENSO‐independent, forecast‐independent, noise‐driven errors.

Larson, Sarah M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A machine learning approach to quantify degradation of nuclear fuels and the effects of fission products

Nuclear fuel performance is critically dependent on understanding the evolution of fuel properties under operational conditions, a complex challenge driven by chemical changes and substantial radiation damage during fission. Traditionally, property evolution has been determined via empirical data collected following irradiation. However, these empirical correlations are limited in their applicability beyond the specific conditions in which they were obtained. This study explores a novel approach to address this challenge by applying materials informatics to develop a machine learning random forest (ML-RF) model that captures the effects of fission products on fuel compounds. The model predicts formation enthalpy (ΔH f ) by leveraging extensive quantum materials property data and correlating it with material descriptors such as composition, atomic and site features, and crystal lattice properties. This ML-RF model enables rapid interpolation across the compositional and structural spaces covered by the training data, thus supporting high-throughput screening and energetic ranking of candidate phases. The model demonstrates the ability to predict ΔH f with a mean absolute error (MAE) of approximately 0.1 to 0.2 eV/atom across a wide range of compounds, including key nuclear fuel systems (U-O, U-N, U-C, U-Si, and U-Mo). For example, it was used to assess shifts in stoichiometry for UO 2 (O/M) and UN (N/M) fuels, revealing their distinct tendencies in chemical potential variation and enabling preliminary convex hull analyses. Furthermore, the model provides insights into how individual fission products affect fuel properties. Results indicate that larger fission products (e.g., Nd, Pu, Ce) have a more pronounced impact on UO 2 , while lighter ones (e.g., Zr) strongly influence UN. Here, the model developed in this work can be used to support the Accelerated Fuel Qualification approach by facilitating preliminary evaluations prior to extensive materials modeling and experimentation. To this end, the trained model has been made available to the fuel community to support ongoing fuel development efforts.

Accelerated fuel qualification↗
DOE OSTI2015

Simplified Methods for Combining Natural and Mechanical Ventilation

In determining ventilation rates, it is often necessary to combine naturally-driven ventilation, such as infiltration, with mechanical systems. Modern calculation methods are sufficiently powerful that this can be done from first principles with time varying flows, but for some purposes simplified methods of combining the mechanical and natural ventilation are required—we call this “superposition”. An example of superposition would be ventilation standards that may pre-calculate some quantities within the body of the standard. When there are balanced mechanical systems, the solution is simple additivity, because a balanced system does not impact the internal pressure of the space. Unbalanced systems, however, change internal pressures and therefore can impact natural ventilation in such a way as to make it sub-additive. Several sub-additive superposition models are found in the literature. This paper presents the results of millions of hours of simulations of the physically correct solution, which span a broad range of climates, air leakage and structural conditions. This wide range of data allows for the comparison of three superposition models from the literature and eight new ones. The results show that by using the appropriate model(s) superposition errors can be reduced significantly, from the 20% over-prediction of simple linear addition to 1% or less.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2015

Simplified Methods for Combining Natural and Mechanical Ventilation

In determining ventilation rates, it is often necessary to combine naturally-driven ventilation, such as infiltration, with mechanical systems. Modern calculation methods are sufficiently powerful that this can be done from first principles with time varying flows, but for some purposes simplified methods of combining the mechanical and natural ventilation are required—we call this “superposition”. An example of superposition would be ventilation standards that may pre-calculate some quantities within the body of the standard. When there are balanced mechanical systems, the solution is simple additivity, because a balanced system does not impact the internal pressure of the space. Unbalanced systems, however, change internal pressures and therefore can impact natural ventilation in such a way as to make it sub-additive. Several sub-additive superposition models are found in the literature. This paper presents the results of millions of hours of simulations of the physically correct solution, which span a broad range of climates, air leakage and structural conditions. This wide range of data allows for the comparison of three superposition models from the literature and eight new ones. The results show that by using the appropriate model(s) superposition errors can be reduced significantly, from the 20% over-prediction of simple linear addition to 1% or less.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data for: Climatic Imprint on Interfacially-Controlled Platinum-Palladium Resources

Data package for manuscript "Climatic Imprint on Interfacially-Controlled Platinum-Palladium Resources" by Emily G. Wright, Ivey Wang, Yihang Fang, Elaine D. Flynn, and Jeffrey G. Catalano. This dataset contains adsorption results from experiments designed to investigate the effect of chloride on Pd(II) adsorption to goethite and Pt(II) adsorption to hematite and goethite, including lab experiments, X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy, and models of retention within a laterite. See the associated manuscript for full methods information. The file "Wright2025_PtAds_data.csv" contains the target starting Pt concentration (uM), final aqueous Pt and associated error (in uM), calculated adsorbed Pt and associated error (in umol/m2), target and measured aqueous chloride (mM), target aqueous nitrate (mM), final pH, and mineral concentration/loading (g/L). Associated mineral-free controls (mineral loading = 0 g/L) are included; the aqueous Pd error was not calculated and chloride was not measured in every sample. These data appear in Figures 1, S3, S4, S5, S20, and S22 in the associated manuscript. The file "Wright2025_PdAds_data.csv" contains the target starting Pd concentration (uM), final aqueous Pd and associated error (in uM), calculated adsorbed Pd and associated error (in umol/m2), target and measured aqueous chloride (mM), and mineral concentration/loading (g/L). Associated mineral-free controls (mineral loading = 0 g/L) are included; the aqueous Pd error was not calculated and chloride was not measured in every sample. These data appear in Figures 1, S3, S4, S5, and S20 in the associated manuscript. The file "Wright2025_MineralBatches_data.csv" contains the mineral identity and BET specific surface area (m2/g) for every mineral batch synthesized and used in experiments. The annealing time used is listed for hydrothermally annealed goethite. These data appear in Table S2 in the associated manuscript. The file "Wright2025_XRD_data.csv" contains the XRD patterns for every mineral batch synthesized as the counts as a function of two theta (in degrees). See "Wright2025_MineralBatches_data.csv" for more details on specific mineral batches. These data appear in Figure S2 in the associated manuscript. The file "Wright 2025_ZetaPotential_data.csv" contains the measured zeta potentials for samples of goethite (batch G2) at pH 4 the presence of varying amounts of sodium chloride. These data appear in Table S3 in the associated manuscript. The file "Wright2025_XAFSSamples_data.csv" contains the specific mineral batch, measured final aqueous Pd or Pt (uM), measured final aqueous chloride (mM), and estimated adsorbed Pd or Pt (umol/m2) of all XAFS samples. These data appear in Tables S4, S7, S8, and S10 in the associated manuscript. The files "Wright2025_PdXAFS_data.csv" and "Wright2025_PtXAFS_data.csv" contain the normalized spectra of Pd and Pt, respectively, adsorbed to minerals at varying chloride concentrations. See "Wright2025_XAFSSamples_data.csv" for a guide to sample names. Note that "05" in a sample name is equivalent to "0.5". These data appear in Figures 2, S6, S7, S8, S12, S13, and S14 in the associated manuscript. The file "Wright2025_LateriteProfileProfileModelParameters_data.csv" include the ratio of hematite to hematite and goethite in two synthetic, modeled profiles, as well as the modeled surface areas of goethite and hematite as a function of relative depth within the modeled weathering zone. These data were used, in conjunction with equations presented in the paper, to calculate the theoretical concentrations of Pd and Pt (and the resulting Pt/Pd ratio) within the profiles. These data appear in Figure 3 in the associated manuscript. The file "Wright2025_Imagery_data.zip" is a zipped folder containing the TEM and STEM images appear in Figures S18 and S19. Individual files are labeled as either STEM (Fig. S18) or TEM (Fig. S19) with a letter representing the part of the multipart figure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using Neural Network Force Fields to Ascertain the Quality of Ab Initio Simulations of Liquid Water

Accurately simulating the properties of bulk water, despite the apparent simplicity of the molecule, is still a challenge. In order to fully understand and reproduce its complex phase diagram, it is necessary to perform simulations at the ab initio level, including quantum mechanical effects both for electrons and nuclei. This comes at a high computational cost, given that the structural and dynamical properties tend to require long timescales and large simulation cells. In this work, we evaluate the errors that density functional theory (DFT)-based simulations routinely incur into due time- and size-scale limitations. These errors are evaluated using neural-network-trained force fields that are accurate at the level of DFT methods. We compare different exchange and correlation potentials for properties of bulk water that require large timescales. Here we show that structural properties are less dependent on the system size and that dynamical properties such as the diffusion coefficient have a strong dependence on the simulation size and timescale. Our results facilitate comparisons of DFT-based simulation results with experiments and offer a path to discriminate between model and convergence errors in these simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transformer Leakage Inductance Design Methodology

The leakage inductance exhibited by a transformer depends on its winding geometry, which generally involves the selection of several key design parameters in addition to the winding structure and the interleaving configuration. With few resources explaining the effects of these design choices on the observed leakage inductance, numerous trial-and-error iterations become necessary to realize the desired leakage inductance. This paper explores more than a hundred winding geometries feasible in a 2-winding transformer comprising the same magnetic core, number of turns, and wire gauge, and finds the leakage inductance for each unique design using 2-D finite element method (FEM) simulations in association with the semi-analytical double- 2-D model. These leakage inductances are plotted and further analyzed to understand the effects of different design parameters on the effective leakage inductance. The results presented herein and the conclusions drawn from this research can serve as a valuable resource for future design practitioners from both industry and academia.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

A discussion on various experimental methods of impact ionization coefficient measurement in GaN

Impact ionization coefficients play a critical role in semiconductors. In addition to silicon, silicon carbide and gallium nitride are important semiconductors that are being seen more as mainstream semiconductor technologies. As a reflection of the maturity of these semiconductors, predictive modeling has become essential to device and circuit designers, and impact ionization coefficients play a key role here. Recently, several studies have measured impact ionization coefficients. We dedicated the first part of our study to comparing three experimental methods to estimate impact ionization coefficients in GaN, which are all based on photomultiplication but feature characteristic differences. The first method inserts an InGaN hole-injection layer, the accuracy of which is challenged by the dominance of ionization in InGaN, leading to possible overestimation of the coefficients. The second method utilizes the Franz–Keldysh effect for hole injection but not for electrons, where the mixed injection of induced carriers would require a margin of error. The third method uses complementary p–n and n–p structures that have been at the basis of this estimation in Si and SiC and leans on the assumption of a constant electric field, and any deviation would require a margin of error. In the second part of our study, we evaluated the models using recent experimental data from diodes demonstrating avalanche breakdown.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generalization error guaranteed auto-encoder-based nonlinear model reduction for operator learning

Many physical processes in science and engineering are naturally represented by operators between infinite-dimensional function spaces. The problem of operator learning, in this context, seeks to extract these physical processes from empirical data, which is challenging due to the infinite or high dimensionality of data. An integral component in addressing this challenge is model reduction, which reduces both the data dimensionality and problem size. In this paper, we utilize low-dimensional nonlinear structures in model reduction by investigating Auto-Encoder-based Neural Network (AENet). AENet first learns the latent variables of the input data and then learns the transformation from these latent variables to corresponding output data. Our numerical experiments validate the ability of AENet to accurately learn the solution operator of nonlinear partial differential equations. Furthermore, we establish a mathematical and statistical estimation theory that analyzes the generalization error of AENet. Finally, our theoretical framework shows that the sample complexity of training AENet is intricately tied to the intrinsic dimension of the modeled process, while also demonstrating the robustness of AENet to noise.

Auto-encoder↗
DOE OSTI2016

Bootstrap embedding: An internally consistent fragment-based method

Strong correlation poses a difficult problem for electronic structure theory, with computational cost scaling quickly with system size. Fragment embedding is an attractive approach to this problem. By dividing a large complicated system into smaller manageable fragments “embedded” in an approximate description of the rest of the system, we can hope to ameliorate the steep cost of correlated calculations. While appealing, these methods often converge slowly with fragment size because of small errors at the boundary between fragment and bath. We describe a new electronic embedding method, dubbed “Bootstrap Embedding,” a self-consistent wavefunction-in-wavefunction embedding theory that uses overlapping fragments to improve the description of fragment edges. We apply this method to the one dimensional Hubbard model and a translationally asymmetric variant, and find that it performs very well for energies and populations. We find Bootstrap Embedding converges rapidly with embedded fragment size, overcoming the surface-area-to-volume-ratio error typical of many embedding methods. We anticipate that this method may lead to a low-scaling, high accuracy treatment of electron correlation in large molecular systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

General Protocol for the Accurate Prediction of Molecular 13 C/ 1 H NMR Chemical Shifts via Machine Learning Augmented DFT

An accurate prediction of NMR chemical shifts at affordable computational cost is very important for different types of structural assignments in experimental studies. Density functional theory (DFT) and gauge-including atomic orbital (GIAO) are two of the most popular computational methods for NMR calculation, yet they often fail to resolve ambiguities in structural assignments. In this work, we present a new method that uses machine learning (ML) techniques (DFT + ML) that significantly increases the accuracy of 13 C/ 1 H NMR chemical shift prediction for a variety of organic molecules. The input of the generalizable DFT + ML model contains two critical parts: one is a vector providing insights into chemical environments, which can be evaluated without knowing the exact geometry of the molecule; the other one is the DFT-calculated isotropic shielding constant. The DFT + ML model was trained with a data set containing 476 13 C and 270 1 H experimental chemical shifts. For the DFT methods used here, the root mean square deviations (RMSDs) for the errors between predicted and experimental 13 C/ 1 H chemical shifts can be as small as 2.10/0.18 ppm, which is much lower than those from simple DFT (5.54/0.25 ppm), or DFT + linear regression (LR) (4.77/0.23 ppm) approaches. It also has a smaller maximum absolute error than two previously proposed NMR-predicting ML models. The robustness of the DFT + ML model is tested on two classes of organic molecules (TIC10 and hyacinthacines), where the correct isomers were unambiguously assigned to the experimental ones. Overall, the DFT + ML model shows promise for structural assignments in a variety of systems, including stereoisomers, that are often challenging to determine experimentally.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

Molecular dynamics force-field refinement against quasi-elastic neutron scattering data

Quasi-elastic neutron scattering (QENS) is one of the experimental techniques of choice for probing the dynamics at length and time scales that are also in the realm of full-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. This overlap enables extension of current fitting methods that use time-independent equilibrium measurements to new methods fitting against dynamics data. We present an algorithm that fits simulation-derived incoherent dynamical structure factors against QENS data probing the diffusive dynamics of the system. We showcase the difficulties inherent to this type of fitting problem, namely, the disparity between simulation and experiment environment, as well as limitations in the simulation due to incomplete sampling of phase space. We discuss a methodology to overcome these difficulties and apply it to a set of full-atom MD simulations for the purpose of refining the force-field parameter governing the activation energy of methyl rotation in the octa-methyl polyhedral oligomeric silsesquioxane molecule. Our optimal simulated activation energy agrees with the experimentally derived value up to a 5% difference, well within experimental error. We believe the method will find applicability to other types of diffusive motions and other representation of the systems such as coarse-grain models where empirical fitting is essential. In addition, the refinement method can be extended to the coherent dynamic structure factor with no additional effort.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

Verification of Accuracy of CyberKnife Tumor-tracking Radiation Therapy Using Patient-specific Lung Phantoms

Purpose: To investigate the accuracy of the CyberKnife Xsight Lung Tracking System (XLTS) compared with that of a fiducial-based target tracking system (FTTS) using patient-specific lung phantoms. Methods and Materials: Three-dimensional printing technology was used to make individualized lung phantoms that closely mimicked the lung anatomy of actual patients. Based on planning computed tomographic data from 6 lung cancer patients who underwent stereotactic ablative radiation therapy using the CyberKnife, the volume above a certain Hounsfield unit (HU) was assigned as the structure to be filled uniformly with polylactic acid material by a 3-dimensional printer (3D Edison, Lokit, Korea). We evaluated the discrepancies between the measured and modeled target positions, representing the total tracking error, using 3 log files that were generated during each treatment for both the FTTS and the XLTS. We also analyzed the γ index between the film dose measured under the FTTS and XLTS. Results: The overall mean values and standard deviations of total tracking errors for the FTTS were 0.36 ± 0.39 mm, 0.15 ± 0.64 mm, and 0.15 ± 0.62 mm for the craniocaudal (CC), left–right (LR), and anteroposterior (AP) components, respectively. Those for the XLTS were 0.38 ± 0.54 mm, 0.13 ± 0.18 mm, and 0.14 ± 0.37 mm for the CC, LR, and AP components, respectively. The average of γ passing rates was 100% for the criteria of 3%, 3 mm; 99.6% for the criteria of 2%, 2 mm; and 86.8% for the criteria of 1%, 1 mm. Conclusions: The XLTS has segmentation accuracy comparable with that of the FTTS and small total tracking errors.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Aemulus ν: precision halo mass functions in wνCDM cosmologies

Precise and accurate predictions of the halo mass function for cluster mass scales in wνCDM cosmologies are crucial for extracting robust and unbiased cosmological information from upcoming galaxy cluster surveys. Here, we present a halo mass function emulator for cluster mass scales (≳ 1013 M ⊙/h) up to redshift z = 2 with comprehensive support for the parameter space of wνCDM cosmologies allowed by current data. Based on the Aemulus ν suite of simulations, the emulator marks a significant improvement in the precision of halo mass function predictions by incorporating both massive neutrinos and non-standard dark energy equation of state models. This allows for accurate modeling of the cosmology dependence in large-scale structure and galaxy cluster studies. We show that the emulator, designed using Gaussian Process Regression, has negligible theoretical uncertainties compared to dominant sources of error in future cluster abundance studies. Our emulator is publicly available (https://github.com/DelonShen/aemulusnu_hmf), providing the community with a crucial tool for upcoming cosmological surveys such as LSST and Euclid.

cluster counts↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Uncertainty in Microstructure Evolution and Constitutive Properties in Additive Process Modeling

Coupled process–microstructure–property modeling, and understanding the sources of uncertainty and their propagation toward error in part property prediction, are key steps toward full utilization of additive manufacturing (AM) for predictable quality part development. The OpenFOAM model for process conditions, the ExaCA model for as-solidified grain structure, and the ExaConstit model for constitutive mechanical properties are used as part of the ExaAM modeling framework to examine a few of the various sources of uncertainty in the modeling workflow. In addition to “random” uncertainty (due to random number generation in the orientations and locations of grains present), the heterogeneous nucleation density N 0 and the mean substrate grain spacing S 0 are varied to examine their impact of grain area development as a function of build height in the simulated microstructure. While mean grain area after 1 mm of build is found to be sensitive to N 0 and S 0 , particularly at small N 0 and large S 0 (despite some convergence toward similar values), the resulting grain shapes and overall textures develop in a reasonably similar manner. As a result of these similar textures, ExaConstit simulation using ExaCA representative volume elements (RVEs) from various permutations of N 0 , S 0 , and location within the build resulted in similar yield stress, stress–strain curve shape, and stress triaxiality distributions. It is concluded that for this particular material and scan pattern, 15 layers is sufficient for ExaCA texture and ExaConstit predicted properties to become relatively independent of additional layer simulation, provided that reasonable estimates for N 0 and S 0 are used. However, additional layers of ExaCA will need to be run to obtain mean grain areas independent of build height and baseplate structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Detection of the pairwise kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect with BOSS DR11 and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope

Here, we present a new measurement of the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect using data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) and the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). Using 600 square degrees of overlapping sky area, we evaluate the mean pairwise baryon momentum associated with the positions of 50,000 bright galaxies in the BOSS DR11 Large Scale Structure catalog. A non-zero signal arises from the large-scale motions of halos containing the sample galaxies. The data fits an analytical signal model well, with the optical depth to microwave photon scattering as a free parameter determining the overall signal amplitude. We estimate the covariance matrix of the mean pairwise momentum as a function of galaxy separation, using microwave sky simulations, jackknife evaluation, and bootstrap estimates. The most conservative simulation-based errors give signal-to-noise estimates between 3.6 and 4.1 for varying galaxy luminosity cuts. We discuss how the other error determinations can lead to higher signal-to-noise values, and consider the impact of several possible systematic errors. Estimates of the optical depth from the average thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich signal at the sample galaxy positions are broadly consistent with those obtained from the mean pairwise momentum signal.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Slimmer Geminals For Accurate F12 Electronic Structure Models

The Slater-type F12 geminal length scales originally tuned for the second-order Mo̷ller-Plesset F12 method are too large for higher-order F12 methods formulated using the SP (diagonal fixed-coefficient spin-adapted) F12 ansatz. The new geminal parameters reported herein reduce the basis set incompleteness errors (BSIEs) of absolute coupled-cluster singles and doubles F12 correlation energies by a significant─and increase with the cardinal number of the basis─margin. The effect of geminal reoptimization is especially pronounced for the cc-pVXZ-F12 basis sets (specifically designed for use with F12 methods) relative to their conventional aug-cc-pVXZ counterparts. The BSIEs of relative energies are less affected, but substantial reductions can be obtained, especially for atomization energies and ionization potentials with the cc-pVXZ-F12 basis sets. The new geminal parameters are therefore recommended for all applications of high-order F12 methods, such as coupled-cluster F12 methods and transcorrelated F12 methods.

Powell, Samuel R. [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and ↗
DOE OSTI2017

Role of Hydrogen Bonding in Photoinduced Electron-Proton Transfer from Phenols to a Polypyridine Ru Complex with a Proton-Accepting Ligand

Electron-proton transfer, EPT, from phenols to a triplet MLCT-excited Ru polypyridine complex containing an uncoordinated nitrogen site, 1(T), can be described by a kinetic model that accounts for the H-bonding of 1(T) to phenol, 1(T) to solvent, and phenol to solvent. The latter plays a major role in the kinetic solvent effect and commonly precludes simultaneous determination of the EPT rate constant and 1(T)-phenol H-bonding constant. A number of these quantities previously reported for similar systems are shown to be in error due to an inconsistent data analysis. In conclusion, control experiments replacing either 1(T) by its structural isomer with a sterically screened nitrogen site or phenol by its H-bonding surrogate, trifluoroethanol, and the observation of negative activation enthalpies for the overall reactions between 1(T) and phenols lend support to the proposed model and provide evidence for the formation of a precursor H-bonded complex between the reactants, which is a prerequisite for EPT.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗