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NASA NTRS1986

Space Station dynamic modeling, control and simulation

Dynamic disturbances of many orders of magnitude greater than those of conventional spacecraft will be routine for the Space Station. Accurate knowledge of inflight structural dynamics and disturbances will be lacking. System identification will reduce uncertainties. To deal with the remaining model errors and time-varying elements, adaptive control may be required. Dynamic models for two Space Station configurations are derived. A direct model reference adaptive control algorithm is synthesized and evaluated with respect to the station model parameter errors and plant dynamics truncations. Both the rigid body and the flexible modes are treated. Simulation results show that convergence of the adaptive algorithm can be achieved in 100 to about 300 seconds with reasonable performance even during Shuttle hard docking operations in which station mass and inertia are instantaneously changed by more than 100 percent.

Ih, C.-H. C.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Model reduction for flexible spacecraft with clustered natural frequencies

Two approaches to the problem of model reduction for flexible spacecraft that have proved very useful are balancing and model truncation. Furthermore, it is well known that a model representation of a lightly damped flexible structure with widely spaced natural frequencies is approximately balanced. Consequently, reduction in either coordinate system gives similar results for this case. It is important to note, however, that flexible space structures typically have clusters of closely spaced frequencies. In such cases, reduction in model coordinates can give large errors, while the error obtained using balancing is generally much smaller. A new reduction procedure which combines the best features of model and balanced reduction is therefore developed. It is more efficient than balanced reduction of the full system, as it only involves balancing those subsystems of close modes that are highly correlated, yet is shown to yield results which are essentially as good.

Williams, T. W. C.↗

NASA NTRS1999

TRMM Field Campaigns: Objectives and Status Report

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite has been sending valuable data since launch in November 1997. Some of the key goals of the joint NASA (US) and NASDA (Japan) mission are: (1) to estimate the four-dimensional diabatic heating in the tropical and subtropical atmosphere, (2) understand the role of latent heating in driving tropical and extratropical circulations, (3) obtain monthly area-averaged estimates of rainfall over the data-sparse oceans, and (4) estimate the relative contribution of convective and stratiform precipitation over different regions during different seasons. The overarching scientific objective is to understand and improve estimates of rainfall and latent heating profiles throughout the global tropics. This requires observations for fundamental understanding of cloud dynamics and microphysics, as well as for validation, testing assumptions and error estimates of cloud-resolving models, forward radiative transfer models, algorithms used to estimate rainfall statistics and vertical structure of precipitation from surface-based radar, and from satellites. Field experiments designed to contribute to this understanding have been conducted in Texas and the South China Sea in spring of 1998, Florida in summer of 1998, and interior Brazil in (boreal) winter 1999. In summer 1999, a major oceanic campaign will be based at Kwajalein Atoll. Some early results will be highlighted, noting some significant contrasts between oceanic and continental convective systems.

Zipser, Edward I.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Convective Systems Observed and Simulated During TRMM Field Campaigns

Recently completed TRMM field campaigns (TEFLUN1998, SCSMEX-1998, TRMM.LBA-1999, and KWAJEX 1999) have obtained direct measurements of microphysical data associated with convective systems from various geographical locations. These TRMM field experiments were designed to contribute to fundamental understanding of cloud dynamics and microphysics, as well as for validation,, testing assumptions and error estimates of cloud-resolving models, forward radiative transfer models, algorithms used to estimate rainfall statistics and vertical structure of precipitation and latent heating from both surface-based radar and satellites.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS1996

Validation of an Experimentally Derived Uncertainty Model

The results show that uncertainty models can be obtained directly from system identification data by using a minimum norm model validation approach. The error between the test data and an analytical nominal model is modeled as a combination of unstructured additive and structured input multiplicative uncertainty. Robust controllers which use the experimentally derived uncertainty model show significant stability and performance improvements over controllers designed with assumed ad hoc uncertainty levels. Use of the identified uncertainty model also allowed a strong correlation between design predictions and experimental results.

Lim, K. B.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aeroheating Predictions for a Hypersonic, Turbulent Near-Wake

The accuracy of heating predictions using various turbulence models is examined for an axisymmetric near-wake at Mach 6. The CFD predictions are compared with experimental data collected under AGARD Working Group 18 on the wake of a 70-degree sphere-cone. The impact of grid resolution and discretization error is estimated, which allows a comparison of stacked-block and conventional structured meshes. The accuracy of steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models is contrasted with that of a hybrid RANS/Large-Eddy Simulation model. The predictions are made with three different CFD codes (LAURA, FUN3D, and HyperSolve), to demonstrate the code-to-code variation in the results. Steady SST models capture the qualitative nature of the heating in the wake, including the increasing peak heating with increasing Reynolds number. Spalart-Allmaras models, including SA-Catris, under-predicted the peak heating in the wake. Hybrid RANS/LES models improve upon the SA results but have their own modeling difficulties near the shear layer impingement. These results are generally consistent across solvers and grid topologies.

RANS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aeroheating Predictions for a Hypersonic, Turbulent Near-Wake

RANS↗

NASA NTRS2015

Calibration of Predictor Models Using Multiple Validation Experiments

This paper presents a framework for calibrating computational models using data from several and possibly dissimilar validation experiments. The offset between model predictions and observations, which might be caused by measurement noise, model-form uncertainty, and numerical error, drives the process by which uncertainty in the models parameters is characterized. The resulting description of uncertainty along with the computational model constitute a predictor model. Two types of predictor models are studied: Interval Predictor Models (IPMs) and Random Predictor Models (RPMs). IPMs use sets to characterize uncertainty, whereas RPMs use random vectors. The propagation of a set through a model makes the response an interval valued function of the state, whereas the propagation of a random vector yields a random process. Optimization-based strategies for calculating both types of predictor models are proposed. Whereas the formulations used to calculate IPMs target solutions leading to the interval value function of minimal spread containing all observations, those for RPMs seek to maximize the models' ability to reproduce the distribution of observations. Regarding RPMs, we choose a structure for the random vector (i.e., the assignment of probability to points in the parameter space) solely dependent on the prediction error. As such, the probabilistic description of uncertainty is not a subjective assignment of belief, nor is it expected to asymptotically converge to a fixed value, but instead it casts the model's ability to reproduce the experimental data. This framework enables evaluating the spread and distribution of the predicted response of target applications depending on the same parameters beyond the validation domain.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Data Assimilation Into a Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Model: Application to the 1997-1998 El Nino

As part of JPL's ocean data assimilation effort to study ocean circulation and seasonal-interannual climate variability, sea level anomaly observed by TOPEX altimeter, together with sea surface temperature and wind stress data, are assimilated into a simple coupled ocean atmosphere model of the tropical Pacific. Model-data consistency is examined. Impact of the assimilation (as initialization) on El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts is evaluated. The coupled model consists of a shallow water component with two baroclinic modes, an Ekman shear layer, a simplified mixed-layer temperature equation, and a statistical atmosphere based on dominant correlations between historical surface temperature and wind stress anomaly data. The adjoins method is used to fit the coupled model to the data over various six-month periods from late 1996 to early 1998 by optimally adjusting the initial state, model parameters, and basis functions of the statistical atmosphere. On average, the coupled model can be fitted to the data to approximately within the data and representation errors (5 cm, 0.5 C, and 10 sq m/sq m for sea level, surface temperature, and pseudo wind stress anomalies, respectively). The estimated fields resemble observed spatio-temporal structure reasonably well. Hindcasts/forecasts of the 1997/1998 El Nino initialized from forced estimated ocean states and parameters are much more realistic than those simply initialized from ocean states (see figure below). In particular, the ability of the model to produce significant warming beyond the initial state is dramatically improved. Parameter estimation, which compensates for some model errors, is found to be important to obtaining better fits of the model to data and to improving forecasts.

Lee, Tong↗

NASA NTRS1995

Effects of Target Fragmentation on Evaluation of LET Spectra From Space Radiation in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) Environment: Impact on SEU Predictions

Recent improvements in the radiation transport code HZETRN/BRYNTRN and galactic cosmic ray environmental model have provided an opportunity to investigate the effects of target fragmentation on estimates of single event upset (SEU) rates for spacecraft memory devices. Since target fragments are mostly of very low energy, an SEU prediction model has been derived in terms of particle energy rather than linear energy transfer (LET) to account for nonlinear relationship between range and energy. Predictions are made for SEU rates observed on two Shuttle flights, each at low and high inclination orbit. Corrections due to track structure effects are made for both high energy ions with track structure larger than device sensitive volume and for low energy ions with dense track where charge recombination is important. Results indicate contributions from target fragments are relatively important at large shield depths (or any thick structure material) and at low inclination orbit. Consequently, a more consistent set of predictions for upset rates observed in these two flights is reached when compared to an earlier analysis with CREME model. It is also observed that the errors produced by assuming linear relationship in range and energy in the earlier analysis have fortuitously canceled out the errors for not considering target fragmentation and track structure effects.

Shinn, J. L.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Sensitivity Analysis of Material Model Parameters to Reproduce Crushing of Composite Tubes

The ability to predict the behavior of composite structures under impact conditions is an important challenge for engineering analysis since it requires modeling beyond the elasticity and into failure initiation and propagation. Crushing of laminate composites is the result of a combination of several and complex failure mechanisms, which are not always possible to reproduce together in a single finite element analysis (FEA). In this paper, models based on lamina-level failure criteria have been used to predict the onset of damage; once failure initiates, the mechanisms of failure propagation require reducing the material properties using several degradation schemes. Among the composite material models available in LS-DYNA, MAT-ENHANCED-COMPOSITE-DAMAGE (MAT-54) has been chosen for modeling the axial crushing of composite tubes with various resistant sections and wall slope, given the reduced experimental input parameters to insert into the card definition. Comparison with experimental data shows that such material model is able to successfully reproduce the crushing behavior, even if the numerical results are strictly correlated with some model parameters which cannot be measured experimentally or are purely mathematical expedients. Therefore, extensive calibration of these parameters by trial-and-error is necessary to achieve successful simulation results. Once done it for a structure made of the same composite material, it is possible to adopt the same card configuration for all the other cases, obtaining good agreement between numerical and experimental results. After, the attempt to model the same geometries using the MAT-LAMINATED-COMPOSITE-FABRIC (MAT-58) card with the same parameter values previously calibrated has been done obtaining results comparable with the experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

One-to-one aeroservoelastic validation of operational loads and performance of a 2.8 MW wind turbine model in OpenFAST

Abstract. This article presents a validation study of the popular aeroservoelastic code suite OpenFAST leveraging weeks of measurements obtained during normal operation of a 2.8 MW land-based wind turbine. Measured wind conditions were used to generate one-to-one turbulent flow fields (i.e., comparing simulation to measurement in 10 min increments, or bins) through unconstrained and constrained assimilation methods using the kinematic turbulence generators TurbSim and PyConTurb. A total of 253 bins of 10 min of normal turbine operation were selected for analysis, and a statistical comparison in terms of performance and loads is presented. We show that successful validation of the model was not strongly dependent on the type of inflow assimilation method used for mean quantities of interest, which had median modeling errors per wind-speed interval generally within 5 %–10 % of the measurement. The type of inflow assimilation method did have a larger effect on the fatigue predictions for blade-root flapwise and tower-base fore–aft quantities, which surprisingly saw larger errors from the assumed higher-fidelity assimilation methods. Avenues for further work are discussed and include possible improvements to the aerodynamic, structural, and controller modeling that may offer insight on the origin of the up to ∼ 40 % median overprediction of fatigue for these quantities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of oceanic post-cold frontal clouds and their model representation. Final report

Low-level clouds are ubiquitous over the oceans, and their impact on the Earth’ radiative budget is important. However, general circulation models (GCMs) that are used to represent our climate and its evolution still experience problems to represent their correct amount and radiative impact. In the extratropical latitudes (~30-60 N/S), cloud properties are strongly modulated by the occurrence of anti-cyclones (high pressure systems) and cyclones (low pressure systems). While deep clouds dominate in cyclones near the center and along the cold and warm fronts, low-level clouds populate the colder regions of the cyclones, and more specifically the region in the wake of the cold fronts, the post-cold frontal region (PCF). The GCMs mentioned above were found to underestimate the amount of these PCF clouds, and this caused errors in their representation of the amount of solar radiation at the surface of the southern hemisphere oceans, causing an excess in absorption and errors in long-term predictions. To better understand which processes are ill-represented in the GCMs to cause such issues, we used ground-based observations from the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) ARM site and a high resolution regional model (called WRF) to examine the properties of PCF clouds. With the WRF model, we simulated the passage of a cold front at the ENA site using theoretically distinct representations of convection and the physics of the boundary layer. While these physical representations had little impact on the timing, structure and circulation of the cold front, we found a high sensitivity to how the large scale information was fed into the model. Errors rapidly developed if the incoming flow information was injected too far from the site, but 1000 km was found to be an optimal distance between the outer boundary and the ENA site for a realistic cold front passage. With this model, we then conducted a series of experiment where convection and boundary layer schemes were changed, and revealed that 1) the clouds were more sensitive to the convection than boundary layer schemes and 2) the interaction between the two has a large impact. Furthermore, changing the representation of the physics in the model had greater impacts on PCF clouds than changing the initial conditions. As large-scale models increase their spatial resolution, convection will eventually be resolved but it remains that their representation of the physics of the boundary layer will matter for the correct representation of shallow (low-level) clouds. Observations were used to find which large-scale information had a clear relationship with PCF cloud and precipitation properties, in view of helping with GCM parameterizations and evaluation. Both lower troposphere stability and surface forcing were found to be important for PCF clouds that experience more vigorous dynamics than their tropical or subtropical counterparts. For cloud base and top heights, a simple measure of the change in potential temperature between the surface and the 800 hPa was found to be a good predictor. This relationship was found to hold as well when using data from campaigns recently conducted in the southern ocean south of Tasmania. A recent GCM was found to succeed in representing similar relations. For cloud depth, water content, and different characteristics of precipitation both the temperature contrast between the surface and near-air and the near-surface wind speed had a strong relationship. To summarize, through observational constraints and regional model experiments, the project has provided guidance to evaluate GCMs and tools to improve their representation of low-level clouds in the extratropics. It has also highlighted differences in behavior between these clouds and those typically found in the subtropics, thus opening new avenues of research for shallow clouds in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1980

Performance of a near-optimum receiver for optical antipodal signals

The well known photon-counting, heterodyning and homodyning optical receivers (operating over a free-space channel) do not achieve the performance of the optimum quantum receiver, which attains significantly lower error-probabilities than the above receiver structures. A demonstration and analysis are given of a binary antipodal optical receiver that exponentially approaches the performance of the optimum quantum receiver. A general mathematical model is developed, and subsequently used to evaluate the effects of external interference and internal error-sources on receiver performance.

Vilnrotter, V. A.↗

DOE OSTI2019

SAD phasing of XFEL data depends critically on the error model

A nonlinear least-squares method for refining a parametric expression describing the estimated errors of reflection intensities in serial crystallographic (SX) data is presented. This approach, which is similar to that used in the rotation method of crystallographic data collection at synchrotrons, propagates error estimates from photon-counting statistics to the merged data. Here, it is demonstrated that the application of this approach to SX data provides better SAD phasing ability, enabling the autobuilding of a protein structure that had previously failed to be built. Estimating the error in the merged reflection intensities requires the understanding and propagation of all of the sources of error arising from the measurements. One type of error, which is well understood, is the counting error introduced when the detector counts X-ray photons. Thus, if other types of random errors (such as readout noise) as well as uncertainties in systematic corrections (such as from X-ray attenuation) are completely understood, they can be propagated along with the counting error, as appropriate. In practice, most software packages propagate as much error as they know how to model and then include error-adjustment terms that scale the error estimates until they explain the variance among the measurements. If this is performed carefully, then during SAD phasing likelihood-based approaches can make optimal use of these error estimates, increasing the chance of a successful structure solution. In serial crystallography, SAD phasing has remained challenging, with the few examples of de novo protein structure solution each requiring many thousands of diffraction patterns. Here, the effects of different methods of treating the error estimates are estimated and it is shown that using a parametric approach that includes terms proportional to the known experimental uncertainty, the reflection intensity and the squared reflection intensity to improve the error estimates can allow SAD phasing even from weak zinc anomalous signal.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

Eliminating Obliquity Error from the Estimation of Ionospheric Delay in a Satellite-Based Augmentation System

Current satellite-based augmentation systems estimate ionospheric delay using algorithms that assume the electron density of the ionosphere is non-negligible only in a thin shell located near the peak of the actual profile. In its initial operating capability, for example, the Wide Area Augmentation System incorporated the thin shell model into an estimation algorithm that calculates vertical delay using a planar fit. Under disturbed conditions or at low latitude where ionospheric structure is complex, however, the thin shell approximation can serve as a significant source of estimation error. A recent upgrade of the system replaced the planar fit algorithm with an algorithm based upon kriging. The upgrade owes its success, in part, to the ability of kriging to mitigate the error due to this approximation. Previously, alternative delay estimation algorithms have been proposed that eliminate the need for invoking the thin shell model altogether. Prior analyses have compared the accuracy achieved by these methods to the accuracy achieved by the planar fit algorithm. This paper extends these analyses to include a comparison with the accuracy achieved by kriging. It concludes by examining how a satellite-based augmentation system might be implemented without recourse to the thin shell approximation.

delay estimation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reduced‐Order Modeling for Linearized Representations of Microphysical Process Rates

Abstract Representing cloud microphysical processes in large scale atmospheric models is challenging because many processes depend on the details of the droplet size distribution (DSD, the spectrum of droplets with different sizes in a cloud). While full or partial statistical moments of droplet size distributions are the typical variables used in bulk models, prognostic moments are limited in their ability to represent microphysical processes across the range of conditions experienced in the atmosphere. Microphysical parameterizations employing prognostic moments are known to suffer from structural uncertainty in their representations of inherently higher dimensional cloud processes, which limit model fidelity and lead to forecasting errors. Here we investigate how data‐driven reduced‐order modeling can be used to learn predictors for microphysical process rates in bulk microphysics schemes in an unsupervised manner from higher dimensional bin distributions. Using simulations characteristic of marine stratiform clouds, we simultaneously learn lower dimensional representations of droplet size distributions and predict the evolution of the microphysical state of the system. Droplet collision‐coalescence, the main process for generating warm rain, is estimated to have an intrinsic dimension of three. This intrinsic dimension provides a lower limit on the number of degrees of freedom needed to accurately represent collision‐coalescence in models. We demonstrate how deep learning based reduced‐order modeling can be used to discover intrinsic coordinates describing the microphysical state of the system, where process rates such as collision‐coalescence are globally linearized. These implicitly learned representations of the DSD retain more information about the DSD than typical moment‐based representations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling the behavior of concentrated aqueous HNO 3 using machine learning interatomic potentials

We develop two multi-defect machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) trained at the BLYP-D2 and PBE-D3 density functional theories using the DeepMD-kit, allowing for the investigation of structural and thermodynamic properties of nitric acid over a wide range of concentrations via molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. We directly compute the degree of dissociation, α, and pK a from MD simulations, revealing that HNO 3 behaves as a weaker acid at higher concentrations, noting that our standard-state pK a value is in excellent agreement with the experimental one. In general, good agreement is observed with experimental results such as α and density outside the training dataset, with only modest deviations at low-to-medium concentrations. We benchmark our custom multi-defect DeepMD MLIPs against foundational models MACE-MP0 and MACE-OFF23. The foundation models capture some aspects of HNO 3 /NO 3 − solvation in concentrated nitric acid but show noticeable density errors and miss subtle structural features relevant to spectroscopy, whereas the bespoke DeepMD MLIPs yield more compact solvation shells, reproduce density-concentration trends, and run ∼12–15× faster than MACE-MP0. Although classical FFs are still more efficient and match experimental densities better, they lack chemical reactivity and thus cannot predict α or pK a , underscoring the need for system-specific reactive MLIPs beyond universal MLIPs.

Dinpajooh, Mohammadhasan [Pacific Northwest Nation↗