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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Building energy efficiency and load flexibility optimization using phase change materials under futuristic grid scenario

This work investigates the energy savings and load flexibility capacity of phase change material (PCM) integrated into building envelope under a future energy generation scenario, where 80% of the energy load comes from renewable sources. Using community-scale modeling, we first determine the net thermal storage required to fully manage the demand variability at a utility grid, and then using whole-building simulations we optimize operating parameters - such as PCM thickness, latent heat, interior setpoint profile, PCM distribution, and heat transfer coefficient - to determine the optimal conditions required for maximum energy reduction and load flexibility without compromising occupants' thermal comfort. The optimal PCM-integrated envelope proposed in this study can provide annual load flexibility up to 33.6% and annual energy savings up to 10.8% in a lightweight residential building located in Baltimore, MD. This study is relevant given the increasing contributions of renewable energy in the total energy generation mix, leading to a significant time-imbalance between peak energy demand and peak energy production. While thermal energy storage using PCM is a recognized technique, there is no known prior study dedicated to examining the thermal performance of PCM-integrated envelope under future energy generation scenarios. This study bridges the research gap by investigating a practical way to implement PCMs in the buildings and maximize the energy efficiency as well as load flexibility related benefits.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Storm surges and extreme sea levels: Review, establishment of model intercomparison and coordination of surge climate projection efforts (SurgeMIP).

Coastal flood damage is primarily the result of extreme sea levels. Climate change is expected to drive an increase in these extremes. While proper estimation of changes in storm surges is essential to estimate changes in extreme sea levels, there remains low confidence in future trends of surge contribution to extreme sea levels. Alerting local populations of imminent extreme sea levels is also critical to protecting coastal populations. Both predicting and projecting extreme sea levels require reliable numerical prediction systems. The SurgeMIP (surge model intercomparison) community has been established to tackle such challenges. Efforts to intercompare storm surge prediction systems and coordinate the community 's prediction and projection efforts are introduced. An overview of past and recent advances in storm surge science such as physical processes to consider and the recent development of global forecasting systems are briefly introduced. Selected historical events and drivers behind fast increasing service and knowledge requirements for emergency response to adaptation considerations are also discussed. The community 's initial plans and recent progress are introduced. These include the establishment of an intercomparison project, the identification of research and development gaps, and the introduction of efforts to coordinate projections that span multiple climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Atlantic Jet Response to Stratospheric Events: A Regime Perspective

The tropospheric response to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) is associated with an equatorward shift in the midlatitude jet and associated storm tracks, while Strong Polar Vortex (SPV) events elicit a contrasting response. Recent analyses of the North Atlantic jet using probability density functions of a jet latitude index have identified three preferred jet latitudes, raising the question of whether the tropospheric response to SSWs and SPVs results from a change in relative frequencies of these preferred jet regimes rather than a systematic jet shift. We explore this question using atmospheric reanalysis data from 1979 to 2018 (26 SSWs and 33 SPVs), and a 202-years integration of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (92 SSWs and 68 SPVs). Following SSWs, the northern jet regime becomes less common and the central and southern regimes become more common. These changes occur almost immediately following “split” vortex events, but are more delayed following “displacement” events. In contrast, the northern regime becomes more frequent and the southern regime less frequent following SPV events. Following SSWs, composites of 500-hPa geopotential heights, surface air temperatures, and precipitation most closely resemble composites of the southern jet regime, and are generally opposite in sign to the composites of the northern jet regime. These comparisons are reversed following SPVs. Thus, one possible interpretation is that the two southernmost regimes appear to be favored following SSWs, while the southernmost regime becomes less common following SPVs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity of Atmospheric River Vapor Transport and Precipitation to Uniform Sea Surface Temperature Increases

Abstract Filaments of intense vapor transport called atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for the majority of poleward vapor transport in the midlatitudes. Despite their importance to the hydrologic cycle, there remain many unanswered questions about changes to ARs in a warming climate. In this study we perform a series of escalating uniform SST increases (+2, +4, and +6K, respectively) in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 in an aquaplanet configuration to evaluate the thermodynamic and dynamical response of AR vapor content, transport, and precipitation to warming SSTs. We find that AR column integrated water vapor (IWV) is especially sensitive to SST and increases by 6.3–9.7% per degree warming despite decreasing relative humidity through much of the column. Further analysis provides a more nuanced view of AR IWV changes: Since SST warming is modest compared to that in the midtroposphere, computing fractional changes in IWV with respect to SST results in finding spuriously large increases. Meanwhile, results here show that AR IWV transport increases relatively uniformly with temperature and at consistently lower rates than IWV, as modulated by systematically decreasing low‐level wind speeds. Similarly, changes in AR precipitation are related to a compensatory relationship between enhanced near‐surface moisture and damped vertical motions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of the Causes of Wet-Season Dry Biases Over Amazonia in CAM5

This study investigates the causes of pronounced low precipitation bias over Amazonia in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), a common feature in many global climate models. Our analysis is based on a suite of 3-day long hindcasts starting every day at 00Z from 1997 to 2012 and an AMIP simulation for the same period. The Amazonia dry bias appears by the second day in the hindcasts and is very robust for all the seasons with the largest bias magnitude during the wet season (December–February). The bias pattern and magnitude do not change much during different dynamical wind regimes on sub-seasonal time scales. We further classify the diurnal cycle of precipitation near the LBA sites from observations and hindcasts into three convective regimes: no precipitation, late afternoon deep convection, and nighttime deep convection. CAM5 can only simulate the late afternoon convective regime and completely fails to simulate the nighttime convection, which is mostly from propagating convective systems originating from remote locations. CAM5 mainly underestimates precipitation in the late afternoon and nighttime convective regimes, which occur during ~67% of wet season days and account for ~75% of accumulated precipitation amount in observations. The persistent warm temperature bias and slightly higher moisture below 850 mb likely trigger deep convection too frequently, resulting in an earlier but weaker rainfall peak in the diurnal cycle. Finally, shallow convection may not effectively transport moisture from boundary layer to the free atmosphere, which also leads to weaker deep convection events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Improved Representation of Aerosol Wet Removal by Deep Convection and Impacts on Simulated Aerosol Vertical Profiles

Here, we introduce a physics-based aerosol wet removal scheme with unified treatments of aerosol transport and removal by convective clouds into the Community Atmosphere Model version 6. Since several important physical processes are still neglected or poorly represented in this new physics-based scheme, we develop secondary improvements to the parameterizations of aerosol activation, resuspension, and cloud-borne aerosol detrainment in this new scheme. Changes in the aerosol wet removal scheme cause tropospheric aerosol concentrations to decrease to different extents: compared to the control run, the physics-based scheme significantly decreases aerosol burdens by up to 60% over the southern Pacific Ocean, whereas the secondary improvements mitigate the decreasing tendency. The burden changes also depend on aerosol chemical components: the sulfate mass decrease is compensated by secondary production, black carbon (BC) is effectively removed via increasing the hygroscopicity of particulate organic matter from 0 to 0.2, and dust shows the most spatially heterogeneous changes. Simulated aerosol profiles are evaluated against aircraft-based observations over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The secondary-improved scheme reduces the overestimations of upper tropospheric BC and sea salt concentrations by a factor of 10 and 1,000, respectively, and reproduces the dependence of BC mass decrease rates on cloud types. Consideration of convective cloud-borne aerosol detrainment plays the most important role in enhancing the aerosol wet removal and decreasing the positive biases of tropospheric BC and sea salt concentrations. We also summarize unresolved issues related to convective cloud genesis and microphysics, cloud-borne aerosol evolution, and BC and dust emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Linking Deep and Shallow Convective Mass Fluxes via an Assumed Entrainment Distribution in CAM5‐CLUBB: Parameterization and Simulated Precipitation Variability

Abstract We modify the Zhang‐McFarlane (ZM) deep convection scheme in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 to couple it with a unified parameterization for boundary‐layer turbulence and shallow convection, that is, Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB). By assuming a lognormal distribution of entrainment rate across the entire moist convective regimes, we link mass fluxes between shallow and deep convection, which are partitioned by the entrainment rate of the shallowest deep convective plume. Hence, a new deep convective closure is established which is coupled to the sub‐grid vertical motion variability in CLUBB. The convection feedback (or memory) effects are also considered to decrease the entrainment spectrum width and enhance the vertical velocity variability that further affect deep convection. Results show that the revised scheme improves the precipitation simulations in terms of the mean state and variability at various timescales, such as the alleviated double‐intertropical convergence zone and more realistic simulations of the seasonal variation of monsoon precipitation over East Asia, Madden‐Julian Oscillation, and precipitation diurnal phase propagations downstream of large terrains. The improvements are still seen in many aspects such as the mean‐state precipitation when turning off the convection feedback impacts in the revised scheme, emphasizing the benefits of using the modified mass‐flux closure. However, the convection feedbacks have considerable effects on the precipitation diurnal cycle simulations over regions with late‐afternoon precipitation peaks. Overall, the revised scheme provides a unified treatment for sub‐grid vertical motions across regimes of boundary‐layer turbulence, shallow convection, and deep convection, leading to better‐simulated precipitation at various timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of the Grell-Freitas Deep Convection Scheme in Quasi-Uniform and Variable-Resolution Aquaplanet CAM Simulations

The Grell-Freitas deep convection scheme (GF) has been implemented in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) with the nonhydrostatic Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) dynamical core. Aquaplanet simulations have been performed with a global quasi-uniform resolution mesh with ~120 km grid spacing and a variable resolution mesh employing a circular refined region with ~30 km grid spacing centering at the equator and ~120 km elsewhere. GF produces overall patterns of the general circulations comparable to those of other aquaplanet experiments, including those produced using the default Zhang-McFarlane convection scheme (ZM) in CAM Version 5.4. GF alleviates the overestimated occurrence of weak intensity precipitation characteristic of ZM due to GF’s different closure methods and deep-convection trigger conditions. Compared to ZM, the GF characteristics of the equatorial Kelvin waves are closer to observations. GF also better simulates precipitation at variable resolution, with no unrealistic wave distortion by the refinement. Overall, GF shows less sensitivity of convective precipitation and heating/moistening tendencies to changes in horizontal resolution compared to ZM. However, vertically-overlapped total cloud fraction simulated with GF in the tropics is more sensitive to the resolution than ZM due to the larger resolution-sensitivity of high-level cloud fraction in the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mycorrhizal Distributions Impact Global Patterns of Carbon and Nutrient Cycling

Most tree species predominantly associate with a single type of mycorrhizal fungi, which can differentially affect plant nutrient acquisition and biogeochemical cycling. Uncertainties in mycorrhizal distributions are non-trivial, and current estimates disagree in up to 50% over 40% of the land area, including tropical forests. Remote sensing capabilities for mycorrhizal detection show promise for refining these estimates further. Here, we address for the first time the impact of mycorrhizal distributions on global carbon and nutrient cycling. Using the state-of-the-art carbon-nitrogen economics within the Community Land Model version 5, we found Net Primary Productivity (NPP) increased throughout the 21st century by 20%; however, as soil nitrogen has progressively become limiting, the costs to NPP for nitrogen acquisition—that is, to mycorrhizae—have increased at a faster rate by 60%. This suggests that nutrient acquisition will increasingly demand a higher portion of assimilated carbon to support the same productivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Brown Carbon Fuel and Emission Source Attributions to Global Snow Darkening Effect

Snow and ice albedo reduction due to deposition of absorbing particles (i.e., snow darkening effect (SDE)) warms the Earth system and is largely attributed to black carbon (BC) and dust. Absorbing organic aerosol (BrC) also contributes to SDE but has received less attention due to uncertainty and challenges in model representation. This work incorporates the SDE of absorbing organic aerosol (BrC) from biomass burning and biofuel sources into the Snow Ice and Aerosol Radiative (SNICAR) model within a variant of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Additionally, 12 different emission regions of BrC and BC from biomass burning and biofuel sources are tagged to quantify the relative contribution to global and regional SDE. BrC global SDE (0.021–0.056 Wm -2 ) is larger than other model estimates, corresponding to 37%–98% of the SDE from BC. When compared to observations, BrC simulations have a range in median bias (-2.5% to +21%), with better agreement in the simulations that include BrC photochemical bleaching. The largest relative contributions to global BrC SDE are traced to Northern Asia (23%–31%), Southeast Asia (16%–21%), and South Africa (13%–17%). Transport from Southeast Asia contributes nearly half of the regional BrC SDE in Antarctica (0.084–0.3 Wm -2 ), which is the largest regional input to global BrC SDE. Lower latitude BrC SDE is correlated with snowmelt, in-snow BrC concentrations, and snow cover fraction, while polar BrC SDE is correlated with surface insolation and snowmelt. This indicates the importance of in-snow processes and snow feedbacks on modeled BrC SDE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Variability of Water Vapor in the Tropical Middle Atmosphere Observed From Satellites and Interpreted Using SD-WACCM Simulations

Water vapor in the middle atmosphere plays an essential role in global warming, ozone depletion, and the formation of polar stratospheric and mesospheric clouds. We show that tropical middle atmospheric water vapor simulated with the specified-dynamics version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM) is consistent with changes observed in a merged satellite data set, which encompasses the period 1993–2020. Consistent with previous work, we find no significant trend in the stratosphere in either the observations or the simulation; in the mesosphere, we find a long-term trend of 0.1 ppmv per decade, but only in the observations. We also analyze an SD-WACCM simulation for the longer period 1980–2019 to quantify the contribution of various factors to the decadal variation of middle atmospheric water vapor. Over 1980–1995, the simulated water vapor in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, averaged zonally and over ±30° latitude, increases by 0.30 ppmv per decade due to increasing methane emissions. After 1995, a significant abrupt decrease of water vapor of 0.37 ppmv per decade and then a gradual increase of 0.33 ppmv per decade result from changes in stratospheric cold point temperature. The cold-point temperature is strongly influenced by the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. The acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation before about 2003 leads to a cooler tropical tropopause and a decrease of water vapor, and the deceleration thereafter leads to corresponding warming of the tropopause and an increase in water vapor.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing the Effect of Anthropogenically Amplified Halogen Natural Emissions on Tropospheric Ozone Chemistry Between Pre-Industrial and Present-Day

Reactive halogens (X + XO, X = I, Br or Cl) catalytically destroy a fraction of tropospheric ozone under present-day (PD) conditions, however, their distribution and potential impact on tropospheric ozone under pre-industrial (PI) conditions remain largely unexplored. This study uses the Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry (CAM-Chem) to investigate the effect of anthropogenically amplified natural emissions of halogenated species and their subsequent chemistry on tropospheric ozone under PI and PD atmospheric conditions. Model results show that the global tropospheric ozone depletion due to natural halogens is slightly more sensitive in PI than PD, with percentage changes in tropospheric ozone burden (TOB) of -14.1 ± 0.6% for PI and -12.9 ± 0.6% for PD. Individually, the role of iodine and chlorine in ozone depletion is equivalent in both periods (ΔTOB I : ~-7% and ΔTOB Cl : ~-2.5%), while bromine plays a larger role in PI (ΔTOB Br : -5.5 ± 0.6%) versus PD (ΔTOB Br : -4.3 ± 0.7%). The increase in anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions from PI to PD has amplified the natural emission of inorganic halogens and led to a shift in the partitioning of inorganic halogens from reactive to reservoir species. Consequently, halogen-driven ozone depletion from the surface to the free troposphere is larger in PI than PD. In contrast, in the upper troposphere, the ozone depletion is larger in PD influenced mainly by stratospheric intrusion of reactive halogens from long-lived species. This study highlights the importance of including a complete chemical coupling of natural halogens and atmospheric pollutants in chemistry-climate models to adequately assess their effects on tropospheric ozone in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Base State Influences on South Asian Monsoon Processes Derived From Analyses of E3SMv2 and CESM2

Abstract The effects of differences in climate base state are related to processes associated with the present‐day South Asian monsoon simulations in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) and the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). Though tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean base state sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are over 1°C cooler in E3SMv2 compared to CESM2, and there is an overall reduction of Indian sector precipitation, the pattern of South Asian monsoon precipitation is similar in the two models. Monsoon‐ENSO teleconnections, dynamically linked by the large‐scale east‐west atmospheric circulation, are reduced in E3SMv2 compared to CESM2. In E3SMv2, this is related to cooler tropical SSTs and ENSO amplitude that is less than half that in CESM2. Comparison to a tropical Pacific pacemaker experiment shows, to a first order, that the base state SSTs and ENSO amplitude contribute roughly equally to lower amplitude monsoon‐ENSO teleconnections in E3SMv2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mesospheric temperature and circulation response to the Hunga Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai volcanic eruption

The Hunga Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption on 15 January 2022 injected water vapor and SO 2 into the stratosphere. Several months after the eruption, significantly stronger westerlies, and a weaker Brewer-Dobson circulation developed in the stratosphere of the Southern Hemisphere and were accompanied by unprecedented temperature anomalies in the stratosphere and mesosphere. In August 2022, the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite instrument observed record-breaking temperature anomalies in the stratosphere and mesosphere that alternate signs with altitude. Ensemble simulations carried out with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6) indicate that the strengthening of the stratospheric westerlies explains the mesospheric temperature changes. The stronger westerlies cause stronger westward gravity wave drag in the mesosphere. Although the enhanced gravity wave drag is partly balanced by a weakening of planetary wave forcing, the net result is an acceleration of the mesospheric mean meridional circulation. The stronger mesospheric circulation, in turn, plays a dominant role in driving the changes in mesospheric temperatures. This study highlights the impact of large volcanic eruptions on middle atmospheric dynamics and provides insight into their long-term effects in the mesosphere. On the other hand, we could not discern a clear mechanism for the observed changes in stratospheric circulation. In fact, an examination of the WACCM ensemble reveals that not every member reproduces the large changes observed by SABER. We conclude that there is a stochastic component to the stratospheric response to the HTHH eruption.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Interaction Between Climate Forcing and Feedbacks

A Perturbed Parameter Ensemble (PPE) with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) is used to better understand the sensitivity of aerosol forcing and cloud feedbacks to changes in model processes. Aerosol forcing through aerosol-cloud interactions is mostly negative (a cooling) due to shortwave radiation, while feedbacks are positive or negative in different regions due to contrasting longwave and shortwave effects. Both forcing and feedbacks are related to the mean climate state. Higher magnitude cloud radiative effects generally mean larger magnitude net negative forcing and larger magnitude net positive feedback. Aerosol forcing is broadly related to the susceptibility of clouds to drop number. Feedbacks also related to susceptibility, but to a lesser extent and in different regions to aerosol forcing. Aerosol forcing and cloud feedbacks are anti-correlated in the CAM6 PPE such that stronger negative forcing is associated with stronger positive feedbacks. Even the processes governing forcing and feedback sensitivity in the PPE are similar. These include the warm rain formation process, ice loss processes and deep convective intensity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying Moisture Sources of Arctic Atmospheric Rivers During the Recent Historical Period

Atmospheric rivers (ARs), filaments of intense atmospheric moisture transport, play a significant role in delivering moisture poleward into the Arctic and triggering weather extremes. Although previous studies have focused on large‐scale circulations driving these events, this study investigates ARs through attributing their moisture sources using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with moisture‐tagging capability. Examining ARs in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic separately revealed distinct contributions from remote versus local, and ocean versus land, moisture sources. Unlike non‐AR events, Arctic ARs primarily draw moisture from their respective ocean basins in lower‐latitude regions during the cold season, and shift to land sources in the warm season. Cold‐season ARs in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors source 73.2% and 85.3% of their moisture from their respective ocean basins at lower latitudes, however warm‐season contributions decrease to 41.3% and 29.4%. In contrast, mid‐ and high‐latitude continents combined contribute 40.1% and 51.3% in the warm season. Trajectory clustering analysis shows that AR moisture sources depend on both their genesis regions and transport pathways. In recent decades, the Arctic has experienced a moistening trend in both the cold and warm seasons. Our results suggest that local and remote sources equally drive the observed cold‐season moistening, whereas remote sources predominantly drive the warm‐season moistening. A better understanding of Arctic AR moisture sources under current climate conditions provides valuable insights into their potential future changes amid the projected heterogeneous northern hemispheric warming.

Arctic↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deciphering the sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature to anthropogenic heat flux with a forcing-feedback framework

Abstract The sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature ( T a ) to anthropogenic heat flux ( Q A H ) is known to vary with space and time, but the key factors controlling such spatiotemporal variabilities remain elusive. To quantify the contributions of different physical processes to the magnitude and variability of Δ T a / Δ Q A H (where Δ represents a change), we develop a forcing-feedback framework based on the energy budget of air within the urban canopy layer and apply it to diagnosing Δ T a / Δ Q A H simulated by the Community Land Model Urban over the contiguous United States (CONUS). In summer, the median Δ T a / Δ Q A H is around 0.01 K W m − 2 − 1 over the CONUS. Besides the direct effect of Q A H on T a , there are important feedbacks through changes in the surface temperature, the atmosphere–canopy air heat conductance ( c a ), and the surface–canopy air heat conductance. The positive and negative feedbacks nearly cancel each other out and Δ T a / Δ Q A H is mostly controlled by the direct effect in summer. In winter, Δ T a / Δ Q A H becomes stronger, with the median value increased by about 20% due to weakened negative feedback associated with c a . The spatial and temporal (both seasonal and diurnal) variability of Δ T a / Δ Q A H as well as the nonlinear response of Δ T a to Δ Q A H are strongly related to the variability of c a , highlighting the importance of correctly parameterizing convective heat transfer in urban canopy models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A storyline analysis of Hurricane Irma’s precipitation under various levels of climate warming

Abstract Understanding how extreme weather, such as tropical cyclones, will change with future climate warming is an interesting computational challenge. Here, the hindcast approach is used to create different storylines of a particular tropical cyclone, Hurricane Irma (2017). Using the community atmosphere model, we explore how Irma’s precipitation would change under various levels of climate warming. Analysis is focused on a 48 h period where the simulated hurricane tracks reasonably represent Irma’s observed track. Under future scenarios of 2 K, 3 K, and 4 K global average surface temperature increase above pre-industrial levels, the mean 3-hourly rainfall rates in the simulated storms increase by 3–7% K −1 compared to present. This change increases in magnitude for the 95th and 99th percentile 3-hourly rates, which intensify by 10–13% K −1 and 17–21% K −1 , respectively. Over Florida, the simulated mean rainfall accumulations increase by 16–26% K −1 , with local maxima increasing by 18–43% K −1 . All percent changes increase monotonically with warming level.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗