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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Joint analysis of Dark Energy Survey Year 3 data and CMB lensing from SPT and Planck . I. Construction of CMB lensing maps and modeling choices

Joint analyses of cross-correlations between measurements of galaxy positions, galaxy lensing, and lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) offer powerful constraints on the large-scale structure of the Universe. In a forthcoming analysis, we will present cosmological constraints from the analysis of such cross-correlations measured using Year 3 data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and CMB data from the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and Planck. Here we present two key ingredients of this analysis: (1) an improved CMB lensing map in the SPT-SZ survey footprint and (2) the analysis methodology that will be used to extract cosmological information from the cross-correlation measurements. Relative to previous lensing maps made from the same CMB observations, we have implemented techniques to remove contamination from the thermal Sunyaev Zel’dovich effect, enabling the extraction of cosmological information from smaller angular scales of the cross-correlation measurements than in previous analyses with DES Year 1 data. We describe our model for the cross-correlations between these maps and DES data, and validate our modeling choices to demonstrate the robustness of our analysis. We then forecast the expected cosmological constraints from the galaxy survey-CMB lensing auto and cross-correlations. We find that the galaxy-CMB lensing and galaxy shear-CMB lensing correlations will on their own provide a constraint on S 8 =σ 8 $\sqrt{Ωm/0.3}$ at the few percent level, providing a powerful consistency check for the DES-only constraints. Finally, we explore scenarios where external priors on shear calibration are removed, finding that the joint analysis of CMB lensing cross-correlations can provide constraints on the shear calibration amplitude at the 5% to 10% level.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1993

Finite element analysis of structural engineering problems using a viscoplastic model incorporating two back stresses

The feasibility of a viscoplastic model incorporating two back stresses and a drag strength is investigated for performing nonlinear finite element analyses of structural engineering problems. To demonstrate suitability for nonlinear structural analyses, the model is implemented into a finite element program and analyses for several uniaxial and multiaxial problems are performed. Good agreement is shown between the results obtained using the finite element implementation and those obtained experimentally. The advantages of using advanced viscoplastic models for performing nonlinear finite element analyses of structural components are indicated.

Arya, Vinod K.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Uncertainty propagation of p-boxes using sparse polynomial chaos expansions

In modern engineering, physical processes are modelled and analysed using advanced computer simulations, such as finite element models. Furthermore, concepts of reliability analysis and robust design are becoming popular, hence, making efficient quantification and propagation of uncertainties an important aspect. In this context, a typical workflow includes the characterization of the uncertainty in the input variables. In this paper, input variables are modelled by probability-boxes (p-boxes), accounting for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. The propagation of p-boxes leads to p-boxes of the output of the computational model. A two-level meta-modelling approach is proposed using non-intrusive sparse polynomial chaos expansions to surrogate the exact computational model and, hence, to facilitate the uncertainty quantification analysis. The capabilities of the proposed approach are illustrated through applications using a benchmark analytical function and two realistic engineering problem settings. They show that the proposed two-level approach allows for an accurate estimation of the statistics of the response quantity of interest using a small number of evaluations of the exact computational model. This is crucial in cases where the computational costs are dominated by the runs of high-fidelity computational models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Structural modeling and dynamic analysis of condensate storage tanks in nuclear power plants

Condensate storage tanks (CSTs) in nuclear power plants (NPPs) are classified as critical equipment capable of surviving strong shaking in a design basis earthquake to assure the ability to subsequently provide cooling water. Structural modeling and dynamic analysis of CSTs are complicated due to fluid-structure interaction (FSI) and coupling issues, which could have significant effects on seismic response. The capability of a number of approximate models to capture seismic response is investigated using dynamic analysis results from detailed finite element models. Modal analyses and time history analyses are carried out using both 2D and 3D models to predict the dynamic behavior of CSTs as a function of ground motion intensity. Although 2D simplified models can be used to quickly evaluate the dynamic response of CSTs when there is substantial margin to failure, a detailed 3D model is required when it is necessary to examine a limit state associated with the failure mode of the tank. The findings show good agreement between the natural frequencies of convective modes determined from the 2D and 3D CST models. The difference between the frequencies of impulsive modes were found to be equal to or less than 25%.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

This paper reviews research approaches and open questions regarding data, statistical analyses, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends in relation to temperature extremes. Our specific focus is upon extreme events of short duration (roughly less than 5 days) that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Methods used to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques can connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplements more straightforward analyses. A wide array of LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale phenomena, have been implicated as contributors to extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the physical nature of these contributions and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the implicated LSMPs is incomplete. There is a pressing need for (a) systematic study of the physics of LSMPs life cycles and (b) comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages and LSMP behavior. Generally, climate models capture the observed heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreaks frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Climate models have been used to investigate past changes and project future trends in extreme temperatures. Overall, modeling studies have identified important mechanisms such as the effects of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs more specifically to understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated so more research is needed to understand the limitations of climate models and improve model skill in simulating extreme temperatures and their associated LSMPs. Furthermore, the paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian model selection for GRB 211211A through multiwavelength analyses

ABSTRACT Although GRB 211211A is one of the closest gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), its classification is challenging because of its partially inconclusive electromagnetic signatures. In this paper, we investigate four astrophysical scenarios as possible progenitors for GRB 211211A: a binary neutron star merger, a black hole–neutron star merger, a core-collapse supernova, and an r-process enriched core collapse of a rapidly rotating massive star (a collapsar). We perform a large set of Bayesian multiwavelength analyses based on different models describing these scenarios and priors to investigate which astrophysical scenarios and processes might be related to GRB 211211A. Our analysis supports previous studies in which the presence of an additional component, likely related to r-process nucleosynthesis, is required to explain the observed light curves of GRB 211211A, as it cannot be explained solely as a GRB afterglow. Fixing the distance to about $350~\rm Mpc$, namely the distance of the possible host galaxy SDSS J140910.47+275320.8, we find a statistical preference for a binary neutron star merger scenario.

(transients:) gamma-ray bursts↗
NASA NTRS1991

Photochemical ozone production in tropical squall line convection during NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment/Amazon Boundary Layer Experiment 2A

The role of convection was examined in trace gas transport and ozone production in a tropical dry season squall line sampled on August 3, 1985, during NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment/Amazon Boundary Layer Experiment 2A (NASA GTE/ABLE 2A) in Amazonia, Brazil. Two types of analyses were performed. Transient effects within the cloud are examined with a combination of two-dimensional cloud and one-dimensional photochemical modeling. Tracer analyses using the cloud model wind fields yield a series of cross sections of NO(x), CO, and O3 distribution during the lifetime of the cloud; these fields are used in the photochemical model to compute the net rate of O3 production. At noon, when the cloud was mature, the instantaneous ozone production potential in the cloud is between 50 and 60 percent less than in no-cloud conditions due to reduced photolysis and cloud scavenging of radicals. Analysis of cloud inflows and outflows is used to differentiate between air that is undisturbed and air that has been modified by the storm. These profiles are used in the photochemical model to examine the aftereffects of convective redistribution in the 24-hour period following the storm. Total tropospheric column O3 production changed little due to convection because so little NO(x) was available in the lower troposphere. However, the integrated O3 production potential in the 5- to 13-km layer changed from net destruction to net production as a result of the convection. The conditions of the August 3, 1985, event may be typical of the early part of the dry season in Amazonia, when only minimal amounts of pollution from biomass burning have been transported into the region.

Pickering, Kenneth E.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Modelling TOVS radiances of synoptic systems

Two operational analysis models, produced by ECMWF and NMC, are compared against observed satellite radiances by converting the analyzed variables into synthetic radiances using a radiative transfer model (RTM). Observed TOVS satellite radiances are used as a ground truth, since they are the only source of continuous, synoptic-scale resolution observations available over the data-sparse tropical Pacific Ocean. It is assumed that if the analysis models correctly simulate atmospheric conditions, the observed and modelled radiance fields will have similar patterns and magnitudes. In each of seven TOVS channels examined, the mean temperature difference between the models was small, but the differences between the models and the observations were large. The mean temperature difference within each channel was larger than the standard deviation in most cases. The moisture channels of the RTM were sensitive to changes in moisture content, but none of the channels were significantly affected by changes in temperature. Single-day modelled radiance analyses contain synoptic information similar to the satellite observations. ECMWF is often too noisy, producing features not verified by the satellite; NMC is often too smooth. NMC more closely resembles the TOVS contours. Modelled water vapor channel analyses resemble observed monthly and composited observations well, but do not accurately reproduce the highly-variable single-day fields. ECMWF generally has more accurate gradients. Neither model simulates the tropics well. The water vapor channels, especially channel eleven (weighted at 700 mb), most closely resembled the tropical plume composite described by McGuirk and Ulsh. The only plume evidence found in the thermal or microwave channels, in either the observations or the models, was a composite trough situated in the correct location, extending from the mid-latitudes into the subtropics. This feature was not readily discernable until the definition and mature stages. Additional information besides the modelled temperatures would be required to produce an accurate forecast for the tropics. Model patterns more closely resembled the observations in the quiescent atmosphere, though the magnitudes were not any closer. ECMWF simulates the TOVS quiescent state better than NMC. The moisture channels continue to present the most realistic patterns. The models contained more detail in the tropics than was verified by the satellite observations, apparently trying to force an active ITCZ. Lag correlations showed TOVS to be more persistent than the models. TOVS also showed a smoother lag trend, but all products appeared to have adequate ability to react to changes in the atmosphere over time.

Coe, Thomas Eddy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anomalies in global SMEFT analyses. A case study of first-row CKM unitarity

Recent developments in the Standard Model analysis of semileptonic charged-current processes involving light quarks have revealed ~ 3σ tensions in Cabibbo universality tests involving meson, neutron, and nuclear beta decays. In this paper, we explore beyond the Standard Model explanations of this so-called Cabibbo Angle Anomaly in the framework of the Standard Model Effective Field Theory (SMEFT), including not only low-energy charged current processes (‘L’), but also electroweak precision observables (‘EW’) and Drell-Yan collider processes (‘C’) that probe the same underlying physics across a broad range of energy scales. The resulting ‘CLEW’ framework not only allows one to test explanations of the Cabibbo Angle Anomaly, but is set up to provide near model-independent analyses with minimal assumptions on the flavor structure of the SMEFT operators. Besides the global analysis, we consider a large number of simpler scenarios, each with a subset of SMEFT operators, and investigate how much they improve upon the Standard Model fit. We find that the most favored scenarios, as judged by the Akaike Information Criterion, are those that involve right-handed charged currents. Additional interactions, namely oblique operators, terms modifying the Fermi constant, and operators involving right-handed neutral currents, play a role if the CDF determination of the W mass is included in the analysis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2007

Tropospheric Vertical Distribution of Tropical Atlantic Ozone Observed by TES during the Northern African Biomass Burning Season

We present vertical distributions of ozone from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) over the tropical Atlantic Ocean during January 2005. Between 10N and 20S, TES ozone retrievals have Degrees of Freedom for signal (DOF) around 0.7 - 0.8 each for tropospheric altitudes above and below 500 hPa. As a result, TES is able to capture for the first time from space a distribution characterized by two maxima: one in the lower troposphere north of the ITCZ and one in the middle and upper troposphere south of the ITCZ. We focus our analysis on the north tropical Atlantic Ocean, where most of previous satellite observations showed discrepancies with in-situ ozone observations and models. Trajectory analyses and a sensitivity study using the GEOS-Chem model confirm the influence of northern Africa biomass burning on the elevated ozone mixing ratios observed by TES over this region.

satellite observations↗
DOE OSTI2011

Search for New Physics at the Tevatron

We report on selected recent results from the CDF and D0 experiments on searches for physics beyond the Standard Model using data from the Tevatron collider running p{bar p} collisions at {radical}s = 1960 GeV. Over the past decades the Standard Model (SM) of particle physics has been surprisingly successful. Although the precision of experimental tests improved by orders of magnitude no significant deviation from the SM predictions has been observed so far. Still, there are many questions that the Standard Model does not answer and problems it can not solve. Among the most important ones are the origin of the electro-weak symmetry breaking, hierarchy of scales, unification of fundamental forces and the nature of gravity. Recent cosmological observations indicates that the SM particles only account for 4% of the matter of the Universe. Many extensions of the SM (Beyond the Standard Model, BSM) have been proposed to make the theory more complete and solve some of the above puzzles. Some of these extension includes SuperSymmetry (SUSY), Grand Unification Theory (GUT) and Extra Dimensions. At CDF and D0 we search for evidence of such processes in proton-antiproton collisions at {radical}(s) = 1960 GeV. The phenomenology of these models is very rich, although the cross sections for most of these exotic processes is often very small compared to those of SM processes at hadron colliders. It is then necessary to devise analysis strategies that would allow to disentangle the small interesting signals, often buried under heavy instrumental and/or physics background. Two main approaches to search for physics beyond the Standard Model are used in a complementary fashion: model-based analyses and signature based studies. In the more traditional model-driven approach, one picks a favorite theoretical model and/or a process, and the best signature is chosen. The selection cuts are optimized based on acceptance studies performed using simulated signal events. The expected background is calculated from data and/or Monte Carlo and, based on the number of events observed in the data, a discovery is made or the best limit on the new signal is set. In a signature-based approach a specific signature is picked (i.e. dileptons+X) and the data sample is defined in terms of known SM processes. A signal region (blind box) might be defined with cuts which are kept as loose as possible and the background predictions in the signal region are often extrapolated from control regions. Inconsistencies with the SM predictions will provide indication of possible new physics. As the cuts and acceptances are often calculated independently from a model, different models can be tested against the data sample. It should be noticed that the comparison with a specific model implies calculating optimized acceptances for a specific BSM signal. In signature-based searches, there is no such an optimization. Both the experiments have followed a somehow natural approach in pursuing analysis looking at final state signatures characterized by relatively simple physics objects (for example lepton-only final state, where the selection of the leptons is straightforward and can be easily checked with the measurement of electroweak boson production cross sections) and proceeding onto more complex final state, including jets and heavy flavor. Here more sophisticated identification techniques need to be used and issues like jet energy scale calibration play an important role in determining the final result. Given the limited space available for this proceeding, we will focus here on few selected results.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Statistical Analysis of the Phase 3 Emissions Data Collected in the EPAct/V2/E89 Program: January 7, 2010 - July 6, 2012

Phase 3 of the EPAct/V2/E-89 Program investigated the effects of 27 program fuels and 15 program vehicles on exhaust emissions and fuel economy. All vehicles were tested over the California Unified Driving Cycle (LA-92) at 75 degrees F. The program fuels differed on T50, T90, ethanol, Reid vapor pressure, and aromatics. The vehicles tested were new, low-mileage 2008 model year Tier 2 vehicles. A total of 956 test runs were made. Comprehensive statistical modeling and analyses were conducted on methane, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, fuel economy, non-methane hydrocarbons, non-methane organic gases, oxides of nitrogen, particulate matter, and total hydrocarbons. In general, model fits determined that emissions and fuel economy were complicated by functions of the five fuel parameters. An extensive evaluation of alternative model fits produced a number of competing model fits. Many of these alternative fits produce similar estimates of mean emissions for the 27 program fuels but should be carefully evaluated for use with emerging fuels with combinations of fuel parameters not included here. The program includes detailed databases on each of the 27 program fuels on each of the 15 vehicles and on each of the vehicles on each of the program fuels.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2018

Cross-Cutting Computational Modeling Project: Integrative Modeling Approach

A wide range of computational models and analyses have been applied to spaceflight risk assessment and countermeasure development. The benefits of using computational modeling to enhance Human Research Program (HRP) goals include the ability to mathematically represent physiological systems, integrate multiple, discrete experimental measures, span multiple temporal and spatial scales, determine important factors within the system and provide estimates of unmeasurable quantities. In the area of application, computational models provide a means of developing simulations to test hypotheses, determining key factors of the system to aid experimental design and bridging gaps in sparse data by mathematically simulating large populations. Specifically, computational models and their supporting analysis tools have the proven potential to integrate analyses of risk factors to enhance mission planning and preparation capabilities and to inform spacecraft design and countermeasure development. Appropriately applied, computational models may allow intelligent, unbiased physiological parameter assessment to enable hypothesis testing and model based design of experiments. HRP recently formed the Computational Modeling Project (CMP), managed out of Glenn Research Center, as a cross-cutting activity aimed at leveraging the growing power and acceptance of computational modeling in informing clinical, physiological, and biological studies. This presentation will provide an overview of the challenges and opportunities in implementing various forms of computational models in support of the HRPs path to risk reduction.

biomechanics↗
NASA NTRS1976

Structural analyses for the modification and verification of the Viking aeroshell

The Viking aeroshell is an extremely lightweight flexible shell structure that has undergone thorough buckling analyses in the course of its development. The analytical tools and modeling technique required to reveal the structural behavior are presented. Significant results are given which illustrate the complex failure modes not usually observed in simple models and analyses. Both shell-of-revolution analysis for the pressure loads and thermal loads during entry and a general shell analysis for concentrated tank loads during launch were used. In many cases fixes or alterations to the structure were required, and the role of the analytical results in determining these modifications is indicated.

Stephens, W. B.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Aerocapture Systems Analysis for a Neptune Mission

A Systems Analysis was completed to determine the feasibility, benefit and risk of an aeroshell aerocapture system for Neptune and to identify technology gaps and technology performance goals. The systems analysis includes the following disciplines: science; mission design; aeroshell configuration; interplanetary navigation analyses; atmosphere modeling; computational fluid dynamics for aerodynamic performance and aeroheating environment; stability analyses; guidance development; atmospheric flight simulation; thermal protection system design; mass properties; structures; spacecraft design and packaging; and mass sensitivities. Results show that aerocapture is feasible and performance is adequate for the Neptune mission. Aerocapture can deliver 1.4 times more mass to Neptune orbit than an all-propulsive system for the same launch vehicle and results in a 3-4 year reduction in trip time compared to all-propulsive systems. Enabling technologies for this mission include TPS manufacturing; and aerothermodynamic methods for determining coupled 3-D convection, radiation and ablation aeroheating rates and loads.

Lockwood, Mary Kae↗
NASA NTRS2014

Aeroelastic Analyses of the SemiSpan SuperSonic Transport (S4T) Wind Tunnel Model at Mach 0.95

Detailed aeroelastic analyses of the SemiSpan SuperSonic Transport (S4T) wind tunnel model at Mach 0.95 with a 1.75deg fixed angle of attack are presented. First, a numerical procedure using the Computational Fluids Laboratory 3-Dimensional (CFL3D) Version 6.4 flow solver is investigated. The mesh update method for structured multi-block grids was successfully applied to the Navier-Stokes simulations. Second, the steady aerodynamic analyses with a rigid structure of the S4T wind tunnel model are reviewed in transonic flow. Third, the static analyses were performed for both the Euler and Navier-Stokes equations. Both the Euler and Navier-Stokes equations predicted a significant increase of lift forces, compared to the results from the rigid structure of the S4T wind-tunnel model, over various dynamic pressures. Finally, dynamic aeroelastic analyses were performed to investigate the flutter condition of the S4T wind tunnel model at the transonic Mach number. The condition of flutter was observed at a dynamic pressure of approximately 75.0-psf for the Navier-Stokes simulations. However, it was observed that the flutter condition occurred a dynamic pressure of approximately 47.27-psf for the Euler simulations. Also, the computational efficiency of the aeroelastic analyses for the S4T wind tunnel model has been assessed.

Hur, Jiyoung↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spatially-Resolved Characterization Techniques and Their Implications for Nuclear Debris Formation.

Debris from nuclear tests has a complex formation process and can inform multiple fields of study such as geology, atmospheric science, shock physics, and chemistry under extreme conditions. Macroscopic nuclear debris forms as the result of fireball interaction with surrounding materials (e.g., structural and environmental component), which rapidly undergo melting and vaporization followed by condensation, convective/diffusive mixing, and solidification over the course of seconds. In atmospheric events, some of this material may disperse over long distances, but much of the material is deposited close-in to ground zero, often in multicomponent, partially (or entirely) amorphous debris formations. During the U.S. nuclear testing program, this material was collected and analyzed, particularly for radionuclide composition. Fallout formation models were developed from nuclear test data based on such radionuclide compositional analyses. These models were not just used to understand fallout dispersion (i.e. the spread of radioactivity over geographical regions) but also guide radiochemical interpretations of historical nuclear tests.6 Developments in analytical techniques over the past several decades have made it possible to make new analyses on historical debris, some of which may be more than a half-century old. For example, inductively-coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) has been used to look at the trace elements in glassy fallout material from aboveground nuclear tests (including the Trinity test). Advanced analyses using X-ray absorption allowed for the measurement of oxidation state of fallout constituents, including actinides. The ability to measure trace actinides and their subsequent oxidation state is important to understanding how the surrounding environment may have influenced the resultant fallout composition and may have implications for why certain fractionation trends have been observed. Here we present data from historic nuclear test debris illustrating the power of spatially resolved methods to connect interaction of the near-field environment with the explosion and provide new insights into nuclear debris formation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2014

Quality-Controlled Upper-Air Sounding Dataset for DYNAMO/CINDY/AMIE: Development and Corrections

The upper-air sounding network for DYNAMO (Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO) has provided an unprecedented set of observations for studying the MJO over the Indian Ocean (IO) where coupling of this oscillation with deep convection first occurs. With 72 sounding sites and dropsonde data from 13 aircraft mission, the sonde network covers the tropics from Eastern African to the West Pacific. In total nearly 26,000 sondes were collected from this network during the experiment’s 6-month extended observing period (from October 2011 to March 2012). Slightly more than half of the sondes, collected from 33 sites, are at high vertical resolution. Rigorous post-field phase processing of the sonde data included several levels of quality checks and a variety of corrections which address a number of issues (e.g., daytime dry bias, baseline surface data errors, ship deck-heating effects, artificial dry spikes in slow ascent sondes). Because of the importance of an accurate description of the moisture field in meeting the scientific goals of the experiments, particular attention is given to humidity correction and its validation. The humidity corrections, though small relative to some previous field campaigns, produced high fidelity moisture analyses in which sonde precipitable water compared well with independent estimates. An assessment of model operational analyses moisture using corrected sonde data shows an overall good agreement with the exception at upper-levels where model moisture and clouds are more abundant than the sounding data would indicate.

dataset↗