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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1990

Parallel line analysis: multifunctional software for the biomedical sciences

An easy to use, interactive FORTRAN program for analyzing the results of parallel line assays is described. The program is menu driven and consists of five major components: data entry, data editing, manual analysis, manual plotting, and automatic analysis and plotting. Data can be entered from the terminal or from previously created data files. The data editing portion of the program is used to inspect and modify data and to statistically identify outliers. The manual analysis component is used to test the assumptions necessary for parallel line assays using analysis of covariance techniques and to determine potency ratios with confidence limits. The manual plotting component provides a graphic display of the data on the terminal screen or on a standard line printer. The automatic portion runs through multiple analyses without operator input. Data may be saved in a special file to expedite input at a future time.

NASA Discipline Cell Biology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Detecting and tracking drift in quantum information processors

Abstract If quantum information processors are to fulfill their potential, the diverse errors that affect them must be understood and suppressed. But errors typically fluctuate over time, and the most widely used tools for characterizing them assume static error modes and rates. This mismatch can cause unheralded failures, misidentified error modes, and wasted experimental effort. Here, we demonstrate a spectral analysis technique for resolving time dependence in quantum processors. Our method is fast, simple, and statistically sound. It can be applied to time-series data from any quantum processor experiment. We use data from simulations and trapped-ion qubit experiments to show how our method can resolve time dependence when applied to popular characterization protocols, including randomized benchmarking, gate set tomography, and Ramsey spectroscopy. In the experiments, we detect instability and localize its source, implement drift control techniques to compensate for this instability, and then demonstrate that the instability has been suppressed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Overview of the Tolerance Limit Calculations with Application to TSURFER

To establish confidence in the results of computerized physics models, a key regulatory requirement is to develop a scientifically defendable process. The methods employed for confidence, characterization, and consolidation, or C3, are statistically involved and are often accessible only to avid statisticians. This manuscript serves as a pedagogical presentation of the C3 process to all stakeholders—including researchers, industrial practitioners, and regulators—to impart an intuitive understanding of the key concepts and mathematical methods entailed by C3. The primary focus is on calculation of tolerance limits, which is the overall goal of the C3 process. Tolerance limits encode the confidence in the calculation results as communicated to the regulator. Understanding the C3 process is especially critical today, as the nuclear industry is considering more innovative ways to assess new technologies, including new reactor and fuel concepts, via an integrated approach that optimally combines modeling and simulation and minimal targeted validation experiments. This manuscript employs intuitive, analytical, numerical, and visual representations to explain how tolerance limits may be calculated for a wide range of configurations, and it also describes how their values may be interpreted. Various verification tests have been developed to test the calculated tolerance limits and to help delineate their values. The manuscript demonstrates the calculation of tolerance limits for TSURFER, a computer code developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory for criticality safety applications. The goal is to evaluate the tolerance limit for TSURFER-determined criticality biases to support the determination of upper, subcritical limits for regulatory purposes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1969

Wave propagation in a random medium

A simple technique is used to derive statistical characterizations of the perturbations imposed upon a wave (plane, spherical or beamed) propagating through a random medium. The method is essentially physical rather than mathematical, and is probably equivalent to the Rytov method. The limitations of the method are discussed in some detail; in general they are restrictive only for optical paths longer than a few hundred meters, and for paths at the lower microwave frequencies. Situations treated include arbitrary path geometries, finite transmitting and receiving apertures, and anisotropic media. Results include, in addition to the usual statistical quantities, time-lagged functions, mixed functions involving amplitude and phase fluctuations, angle-of-arrival covariances, frequency covariances, and other higher-order quantities.

Lee, R. W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning stochastic dynamics and predicting emergent behavior using transformers

We show that a neural network originally designed for language processing can learn the dynamical rules of a stochastic system by observation of a single dynamical trajectory of the system, and can accurately predict its emergent behavior under conditions not observed during training. We consider a lattice model of active matter undergoing continuous-time Monte Carlo dynamics, simulated at a density at which its steady state comprises small, dispersed clusters. We train a neural network called a transformer on a single trajectory of the model. The transformer, which we show has the capacity to represent dynamical rules that are numerous and nonlocal, learns that the dynamics of this model consists of a small number of processes. Forward-propagated trajectories of the trained transformer, at densities not encountered during training, exhibit motility-induced phase separation and so predict the existence of a nonequilibrium phase transition. Transformers have the flexibility to learn dynamical rules from observation without explicit enumeration of rates or coarse-graining of configuration space, and so the procedure used here can be applied to a wide range of physical systems, including those with large and complex dynamical generators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Complexity-calibrated benchmarks for machine learning reveal when prediction algorithms succeed and mislead

Abstract Recurrent neural networks are used to forecast time series in finance, climate, language, and from many other domains. Reservoir computers are a particularly easily trainable form of recurrent neural network. Recently, a “next-generation” reservoir computer was introduced in which the memory trace involves only a finite number of previous symbols. We explore the inherent limitations of finite-past memory traces in this intriguing proposal. A lower bound from Fano’s inequality shows that, on highly non-Markovian processes generated by large probabilistic state machines, next-generation reservoir computers with reasonably long memory traces have an error probability that is at least $$\sim 60\%$$ ∼ 60 % higher than the minimal attainable error probability in predicting the next observation. More generally, it appears that popular recurrent neural networks fall far short of optimally predicting such complex processes. These results highlight the need for a new generation of optimized recurrent neural network architectures. Alongside this finding, we present concentration-of-measure results for randomly-generated but complex processes. One conclusion is that large probabilistic state machines—specifically, large $$\epsilon$$ ϵ -machines—are key to generating challenging and structurally-unbiased stimuli for ground-truthing recurrent neural network architectures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Correlation function metrology for warm dense matter: Recent developments and practical guidelines

X-ray Thomson scattering (XRTS) has emerged as a valuable diagnostic for matter under extreme conditions, as it captures the intricate many-body physics of the probed sample. Recent advances, such as the model-free temperature diagnostic of Dornheim et al. [Nat. Commun. 13 , 7911 (2022)], have demonstrated how much information can be extracted directly within the imaginary-time formalism. However, since the imaginary-time formalism is a concept often difficult to grasp, we provide here a systematic overview of its theoretical foundations and explicitly demonstrate its practical applications to temperature inference, including relevant subtleties. Furthermore, we present recent developments that enable the determination of the absolute normalization, Rayleigh weight, and density from XRTS measurements without reliance on uncontrolled model assumptions. Finally, we outline a unified workflow that guides the extraction of these key observables, offering a practical framework for applying the method to interpret experimental measurements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Tractable minor-free generalization of planar zero-field Ising models

In this work, we present a new family of zero-field Ising models over N binary variables/spins obtained by consecutive 'gluing' of planar and O(1)-sized components and subsets of at most three vertices into a tree. The polynomial time algorithm of the dynamic programming type for solving exact inference (computing partition function) and exact sampling (generating i.i.d. samples) consists of sequential application of an efficient (for planar) or brute-force (for O(1)-sized) inference and sampling to the components as a black box. To illustrate the utility of the new family of tractable graphical models, we first build a polynomial algorithm for inference and sampling of zero-field Ising models over K 33 -minor-free topologies and over K 5 -minor-free topologies—both of which are extensions of the planar zero-field Ising models—which are neither genus- nor treewidth-bounded. Second, we empirically demonstrate an improvement in the approximation quality of the NP-hard problem of inference over the square-grid Ising model in a node-dependent nonzero 'magnetic' field.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Direct comparison of using a Z -transformation instead of the traditional $Q^2$ for extraction of the proton radius from $e-p$ scattering data

A discrepancy in the determination of the proton’s charge radius, r p , between muonic hydrogen spectroscopy versus classic atomic spectroscopy and electron scattering data has become known as the proton radius puzzle. Extractions of r p from electron scattering data require determination of the slope of the proton’s charge form factor, $G$$^{p}_{E}$, in the limit of Q 2 → 0 through fitting and extrapolation. Some works have presented the Z-transformation fitting technique as the best choice for this type of extraction due to the true functional form of $G$$^{p}_{E}$ being mathematically guaranteed to exist within the parameter-space of the fit function. In this work, we test this claim by examining the mathematical bias and variances introduced by this technique as compared to the more traditional Q 2 fits using statistically sampled $G$$^{p}_{E}$ parameterizations with known input radii. Furthermore, our tests conclude that the quality of the Z-transformation technique depends on the range of data used. In the case of new experiments, the fit function and technique should be selected in advance by generating realistic pseudodata and assessing the power of different techniques.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Propagation within Chained Models for Machine Learning Reconstruction of Neutrino-LAr Interactions

Sequential or chained models are increasingly prevalent in machine learning for scientific applications, due to their flexibility and ease of development. Chained models are particularly useful when a task is separable into distinct steps with a hierarchy of meaningful intermediate representations. In reliability-critical tasks, it is important to quantify the confidence of model inferences. However, chained models pose an additional challenge for uncertainty quantification, especially when input uncertainties need to be propagated. In such cases, a fully uncertainty-aware chain of models is required, where each step accepts a probability distribution over the input space, and produces a probability distribution over the output space. In this work, we present a case study for adapting a single model within an existing chain, designed for reconstruction within neutrino-Argon interactions, developed for neutrino oscillation experiments such as MicroBooNE, ICARUS, and the future DUNE experiment. We test the performance of an input uncertainty-enabled model against an uncertainty-blinded model using a method for generating synthetic noise. By comparing these two, we assess the increase in inference quality achieved by exposing models to upstream uncertainty estimates.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2005

Statistical Calibration and Validation of a Homogeneous Ventilated Wall-Interference Correction Method for the National Transonic Facility

Wind tunnel experiments will continue to be a primary source of validation data for many types of mathematical and computational models in the aerospace industry. The increased emphasis on accuracy of data acquired from these facilities requires understanding of the uncertainty of not only the measurement data but also any correction applied to the data. One of the largest and most critical corrections made to these data is due to wall interference. In an effort to understand the accuracy and suitability of these corrections, a statistical validation process for wall interference correction methods has been developed. This process is based on the use of independent cases which, after correction, are expected to produce the same result. Comparison of these independent cases with respect to the uncertainty in the correction process establishes a domain of applicability based on the capability of the method to provide reasonable corrections with respect to customer accuracy requirements. The statistical validation method was applied to the version of the Transonic Wall Interference Correction System (TWICS) recently implemented in the National Transonic Facility at NASA Langley Research Center. The TWICS code generates corrections for solid and slotted wall interference in the model pitch plane based on boundary pressure measurements. Before validation could be performed on this method, it was necessary to calibrate the ventilated wall boundary condition parameters. Discrimination comparisons are used to determine the most representative of three linear boundary condition models which have historically been used to represent longitudinally slotted test section walls. Of the three linear boundary condition models implemented for ventilated walls, the general slotted wall model was the most representative of the data. The TWICS code using the calibrated general slotted wall model was found to be valid to within the process uncertainty for test section Mach numbers less than or equal to 0.60. The scatter among the mean corrected results of the bodies of revolution validation cases was within one count of drag on a typical transport aircraft configuration for Mach numbers at or below 0.80 and two counts of drag for Mach numbers at or below 0.90.

Walker, Eric Lee↗
NASA NTRS2005

Statistical Calibration and Validation of a Homogeneous Ventilated Wall-Interference Correction Method for the National Transonic Facility

Wind tunnel experiments will continue to be a primary source of validation data for many types of mathematical and computational models in the aerospace industry. The increased emphasis on accuracy of data acquired from these facilities requires understanding of the uncertainty of not only the measurement data but also any correction applied to the data. One of the largest and most critical corrections made to these data is due to wall interference. In an effort to understand the accuracy and suitability of these corrections, a statistical validation process for wall interference correction methods has been developed. This process is based on the use of independent cases which, after correction, are expected to produce the same result. Comparison of these independent cases with respect to the uncertainty in the correction process establishes a domain of applicability based on the capability of the method to provide reasonable corrections with respect to customer accuracy requirements. The statistical validation method was applied to the version of the Transonic Wall Interference Correction System (TWICS) recently implemented in the National Transonic Facility at NASA Langley Research Center. The TWICS code generates corrections for solid and slotted wall interference in the model pitch plane based on boundary pressure measurements. Before validation could be performed on this method, it was necessary to calibrate the ventilated wall boundary condition parameters. Discrimination comparisons are used to determine the most representative of three linear boundary condition models which have historically been used to represent longitudinally slotted test section walls. Of the three linear boundary condition models implemented for ventilated walls, the general slotted wall model was the most representative of the data. The TWICS code using the calibrated general slotted wall model was found to be valid to within the process uncertainty for test section Mach numbers less than or equal to 0.60. The scatter among the mean corrected results of the bodies of revolution validation cases was within one count of drag on a typical transport aircraft configuration for Mach numbers at or below 0.80 and two counts of drag for Mach numbers at or below 0.90.

Walker, Eric L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Viral Dynamic Models During COVID‐19: Are We Ready for the Next Pandemic?

Mathematical models have been used for about 30 years to improve our understanding of virus-host interaction, in particular during chronic infections. During the COVID-19 pandemic, these models have been used to provide insights into the natural history of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, optimize antiviral treatment strategies, understand factors associated with transmission, and optimize surveillance systems. The impact of modeling has been accelerated by the availability of unprecedented multidimensional immune data from animal and human systems, which enhanced partnerships between experimentalists and theorists and led to exciting new modeling and statistical developments. In this mini review, we examine the lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and discuss the main insights provided by mathematical models of viral dynamics at the different stages of the outbreak. Although we focus on respiratory infection, we also consider the new areas for development in anticipation of future acute infections from new or reemerging pathogens.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

Measuring X-Ray Polarization in the Presence of Systematic Effects: Known Background

The prospects for accomplishing x-ray polarization measurements of astronomical sources have grown in recent years, after a hiatus of more than 37 years. Unfortunately, accompanying this long hiatus has been some confusion over the statistical uncertainties associated with x-ray polarization measurements of these sources. We have initiated a program to perform the detailed calculations that will offer insights into the uncertainties associated with x-ray polarization measurements. Here we describe a mathematical formalism for determining the 1- and 2-parameter errors in the magnitude and position angle of x-ray (linear) polarization in the presence of a (polarized or unpolarized) background. We further review relevant statistics including clearly distinguishing between the Minimum Detectable Polarization (MDP) and the accuracy of a polarization measurement.

Elsner, Ronald F.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A quantitative model used to compare within-host SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV dynamics provides insights into the pathogenesis and treatment of SARS-CoV-2

The scientific community is focused on developing antiviral therapies to mitigate the impacts of the ongoing novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. This will be facilitated by improved understanding of viral dynamics within infected hosts. Here, using a mathematical model in combination with published viral load data, we compare within-host viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with analogous dynamics of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. Our quantitative analyses using a mathematical model revealed that the within-host reproduction number at symptom onset of SARS-CoV-2 was statistically significantly larger than that of MERS-CoV and similar to that of SARS-CoV. In addition, the time from symptom onset to the viral load peak for SARS-CoV-2 infection was shorter than those of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. These findings suggest the difficulty of controlling SARS-CoV-2 infection by antivirals. We further used the viral dynamics model to predict the efficacy of potential antiviral drugs that have different modes of action. The efficacy was measured by the reduction in the viral load area under the curve (AUC). Our results indicate that therapies that block de novo infection or virus production are likely to be effective if and only if initiated before the viral load peak (which appears 2–3 days after symptom onset), but therapies that promote cytotoxicity of infected cells are likely to have effects with less sensitivity to the timing of treatment initiation. Furthermore, combining a therapy that promotes cytotoxicity and one that blocks de novo infection or virus production synergistically reduces the AUC with early treatment. Our unique modeling approach provides insights into the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 and may be useful for development of antiviral therapies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1978

Analysis of a magnetically suspended, high-performance instrument pointing system

This paper describes a highly accurate auxiliary instrument pointing system which can provide fine pointing for a variety of solar-, stellar-, and Earth-viewing scientific instruments during extended space shuttle orbital missions. This system, called the Annular Suspension and Pointing System (ASPS), consists of pointing assemblies for coarse and vernier pointing. The 'coarse' assembly is attached to the spacecraft (e.g., the space shuttle) and consists of an elevation gimbal and a lateral gimbal to provide coarse pointing. The vernier pointing assembly consists of the payload instrument mounted on a plate around which is attached a continuous annular rim. The vernier assembly is suspended in the lateral gimbal using magnetic actuators which provide rim suspension forces and fine pointing torques. A detailed linearized mathematical model is developed for the ASPS/space shuttle system, and control laws and payload attitude state estimators are designed. Statistical pointing performance is predicted in the presence of stochastic disturbances such as crew motion, sensor noise, and actuator noise.

Joshi, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Constraints on galactic distributions of gamma-ray burst sources from BATSE observations

The paradigm that gamma-ray bursts originate from Galactic sources is studied in detail using the angular and intensity distributions observed by the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) on NASA's Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO). Monte Carlo models of gamma-ray burst spatial distributions and luminosity functions are used to simulate bursts, which are then folded through mathematical models of BATSE selection effects. The observed and computed angular intensity distributions are analyzed using modifications of standard statistical homogeneity and isotropy studies. Analysis of the BATSE angular and intensity distributions greatly constrains the origins and luminosities of burst sources. In particular, it appears that no single population of sources confined to a Galactic disk, halo, or localized spiral arm satisfactorily explains BATSE observations and that effects of the burst luminosity function are secondary when considering such models. One family of models that still satisfies BATSE observations comprises sources located in an extended spherical Galactic corona. Coronal models are limited to small ranges of burst luminosity and core radius, and the allowed parameter space for such models shrinks with each new burst BATSE observes. Multiple-population models of bursts are found to work only if (1) the primary population accounts for the general isotropy and inhomogeneity seen in the BATSE observations and (2) secondary populations either have characteristics similar to the primary population or contain numbers that are small relative to the primary population.

Hakkila, Jon↗