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At least 343 records · Page 19

FY2019 Analysis Program Annual Progress Report

The VTO Analysis Program supports mission-critical technology, economic, and interdisciplinary analyses to assist in prioritizing VTO technology investments and to inform research portfolio planning. These efforts provide essential vehicle and market data, modeling and simulation, and integrated and applied analyses, using the unique capabilities, analytical tools, and expertise resident in the national laboratory system.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Analysis and Design for Sustainable Circularity of Barrier Films Used in Sheet Molding Composites Production

Sheet molding composites (SMC) are thermoset based molding compounds with a global market size of USD 2.1 billion in 2020. SMC is usually processed with multilayer barrier/carrier films to prevent emissions from volatile organic compounds (VOC). The plastic barriers are separated from SMC after the curing process and discarded. To illustrate the high consumption volume of SMC barrier/carrier films, Kohler Co., a company which uses SMC in their bath and showering product lines, alone generates over 1M lb/year of SMC barrier/carrier film waste. Therefore, high amount of SMC barrier/carrier film plastic waste creates a great opportunity for reusing, recycling, or valorization at its end of life. This can be achieved through transition from a linear to a circular supply chain design. However, this transition will not be feasible without overcoming the technical and economic barriers. This project aims to tackle this by making the film circular. Different end of life alternatives will be evaluated experimentally. The reusability of the film will be studied through applying different mechanical and solvent cleaning techniques. The operability concerns regarding the utilization of the cleaned film for long run operations will be addressed by thermally stitching the film. Pelletizing of the cleaned film will also be investigated as a viable technique for recycling or downcycling of the film as molded products. In addition to technical barriers, designing a sustainable circular supply chain for SMC carrier film products requires uncovering the collaboration opportunities between suppliers and users at different stages of the value chain to expand its use to other products. These opportunities will be investigated by finding companies willing to buy or treat the plastic film waste. Finally, the economic viability and environmental impacts of these circular design alternatives will be evaluated through techno-economic assessment (TEA) and life cycle analysis (LCA). Techno-economic and life cycle inventory data for various pathways will also be made available as one of the main outcomes of this project. Preliminary LCA results indicate that the current SMC film supply chain (base case) emits 5.81 tonne CO2 eq. and consumes 104 GJ energy per tonne of SMC film. It is estimated that alternative circular pathways result in 14-20% less CO2 emissions and 34-44% reduction in embodied energy. This project will develop a tool to analyze the circularity and sustainability of hundreds of combinations of alternatives in different life cycle stages. Users of this tool will be able to choose the best combination among these alternatives with respect to the selected economic, environmental and circularity objectives.

circular economy↗

Solar cities: A case study analysis of city-level enablers of expanded solar energy access

Rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) adoption can benefit households by reducing electricity bills and enhancing energy resiliency. Low and moderate-income (LMI) households have been less likely to adopt PV and experience these benefits in the United States than higher-income households. Adopter income trends are often explored through quantitative analysis with limited explanatory power. Our quantitative analysis only explains around one-third of city-level variation in LMI adoption trends through socioeconomic factors such as median home values and income inequality and PV market factors such as cumulative adoption and incentives. We implement semi-structured interviews in three case studies of cities with relatively high rates of LMI PV adoption to better understand the factors that explain PV adopter income trends. The case studies partly reiterate findings from quantitative analysis, such as the role of PV incentives. The case studies reveal a broader set of LMI adoption drivers that are missed in quantitative analyses. The case studies show how city contexts can affect LMI adoption, such as the role of supportive city governments. The case studies also reveal the importance of partnerships, such as partnerships between city governments and state LMI PV program implementers. Finally, interviewees emphasized the importance of building trust among prospective LMI PV adopters. Interviewees suggested that partnerships, outreach, and consumer protection measures were crucial to building trust in PV installers among LMI households.

Adoption↗

Quantifying the Solar Energy Resource for Puerto Rico

After Hurricane Maria, multiple U.S. Department of Energy laboratories studied the state of the electric grid in Puerto Rico and analyzed grid resilience and grid integration of renewable energy. As part of the work done at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, researchers created new solar resource data, conducted a technical potential and supply curve analysis, and studied the interannual variability of the solar resource. A new methodology was developed to downscale solar resource data from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) from a 4-km x 4-km spatial and 30-minute temporal resolution to a 2 km x 2 km and 5-minute resolution. This methodology primarily used simple physical principles to develop high-resolution cloud properties which were then used to compute solar radiation. The high-resolution datasets were validated against ground measurements and the error metrics were found to be similar to the original lower resolution dataset. Using 20 years of downscaled data from the NSRDB multi-year capacity factors for photovoltaics (PV) were developed for both single-axis tracking and fixed latitude-tilt configurations. Use of the multi-year data provides the ability to understand variability in capacity factors due to variability in weather over a long period of time. For Puerto Rico the coastal regions were found to have significant higher capacity factors than inland. Using land-use and terrain information a technical potential analysis was conducted for Puerto Rico. This analysis restricted single PV plant development to a maximum of 100 MW nameplate capacity. The nameplate capacity for each municipality were then determined. Based on our assumptions, 56 of the 78 total municipalities of Puerto Rico contain some level of solar capacity. Most of the interior municipalities did not have any capacity because of the geographic exclusions used in this study. The lowest capacity for a PV plant observed in a municipality was 10 MW. The maximum capacity within a county was 2,000 MW. Further a supply curve analysis was conducted by taking the results of the technical potential and quantifying system and transmission costs. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was calculated for each theoretical PV plant site, and the levelized cost of transmission was added to the LCOE to produce a total cost estimate for each site. The results of the supply curve analysis allow for a relative comparison of the cost for integrating new PV capacity into the grid. This analysis indicates that cheaper total LCOE sites tend to be larger in capacity. The total capacity in this study was found to be far beyond the maximum peak load for the island. However, this study does not consider the economic and market potential for development. The cumulative capacity presented in this study assumes that the best locations are developed first and ignores the complex decision paths for new power plant development. Therefore, this analysis can only be treated as illustrative. Finally this study investigates the impact of inter-annual variability of resource using a variety of metrices including probability of exceedance and variation in capacity factor and LCOE. This study demonstrates that the capacity factor or LCOE could vary by over 10% year to year. This clearly indicates the risks involved in using any particular year of data and clearly points to the use of multi-year data to reduce some of the risks related to variability in weather.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Residential Building Energy Efficiency Field Studies: Low-Rise Multifamily

In recent years, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has conducted a series of research studies to validate energy efficient building technologies in the field. Much of the work has focused on single-family construction, and some has also addressed commercial energy codes. The work detailed in this DOE-funded study (EE0007616) focuses on low-rise multifamily buildings (three stories or fewer above grade) in various regions of the United States, and reports on how state-level building codes are being implemented, both in terms of observed characteristics and also in terms of estimated energy impacts. Nearly 100 buildings across four states—Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington—were sampled, which represent a range of climate types from mild temperature to very cold continental. Both common entry and outdoor entry buildings were included, and a parallel research project evaluated envelope air tightness and current still-evolving air tightness testing methods. Finally, a set of structured interviews of building designers and other relevant professionals was carried to out to gain more insight into this market. To the greatest extent possible, the methodology developed under the project for low-rise multifamily buildings mirrored the approach established by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for single-family residential buildings (https://www.energy.gov/eere/buildings/downloads/residential-building-energy-code-field-study). This included the general approach to sampling, recruitment, and data collection, as well as data analysis and presentation. The range of permitting dates for the sites encompassed two energy code cycles in most regions. All states in the study had adopted a variation of the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) for the structure of their state code. The low-rise multifamily occupancy presents a hybrid building type: most of the building’s conditioned floor area was covered by the residential chapter of the code while portions of the building (such as corridors and common spaces) fell under the commercial code chapter. The key items assessed in this work were: Building Shell—exterior wall insulation, ceiling insulation, foundation insulation, windows. Common Areas—HVAC and lighting. Living Units—lighting, ventilation. A few items were not assessed in detail, given their relative paucity in this occupancy type; these included duct leakage, pipe insulation, and hot water circulation controls. Building characteristics were collected via a combination of architectural, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing plan reviews and field inspections, and entered into a spreadsheet-based tool that was later queried to build a database. Data went through quality control both upon arrival and via a later semi-automated review and assurance process. Most of the data are presented graphically so that the reader can quickly assess compliance with the applicable energy codes (both by state and by code year). As a final step, EnergyPlus™ simulations were created for all buildings in the study to estimate both the as-found energy use intensity (EUI) and the energy and CO 2 that could be saved if features that were found to not meet code minimums were brought up to code. The savings estimates were tabulated for each of the four states in the study. The research team found that the single-family approach was largely applicable to low-rise multifamily buildings. This applies to both the data collection and the prototype EUI analysis. Most of the occupied space is living units and falls under residential energy codes, and many characteristics use similar envelope construction and relatively straightforward mechanical systems and lighting. One of the most challenging aspects of this work was to build an effective spreadsheet-based data collection instrument that could allow efficient collection of both building plan and field data. The research team is of the view that other methods could be equally effective if the work is done carefully with diligent quality control. The primary findings for the work center around the thermal envelope and mechanical systems and lighting at the sites: For thermal envelope components, the majority of buildings met or were better than the prescriptive code.This suggests that building designers and builders are aware of code requirements. In some cases, surveyed buildings were designed to qualify for energy efficiency certification programs. These buildings made up at least 20% of sampled buildings in each state. Almost all buildings met mechanical system efficiency requirements (for both living units and common areas). In some cases, sites employed systems that were considerably more efficient than required by the applicable energy code. Dwelling units had a majority of high-efficacy lighting, often in excess of the state’s residential code requirements. While high-efficacy fixtures were also typical in common areas (corridors and stairwells), lighting power densities (LPDs) in these areas were sometimes higher than levels dictated by the applicable part of the state commercial energy code. The simulation models run on a series of low-rise multifamily prototypes, informed by a composite of the field data collected, calculated annual EUIs of between 20 and 50 kBtu/ft2-yr, with the range representing the effects of both building characteristics and building location (climate zone). A detailed process (based on simulations of prototype buildings) was used to estimate the amount of avoided energy use that would occur if 100% adherence to energy codes were attained. The results indicated modest savings are attainable for items such as window thermal performance and common area lighting. The result is overall only a modest potential for additional energy savings, averaging about 10% of EUI.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Economic risk analysis for the capture of a distributed energy resource using modular chemical process intensification

Recent advances in the chemical process industry have allowed for the intensification of reactors and unit operations, by enhancing heat and mass transfer or combining multiple unit operations. Process intensification can enable chemical plants to be constructed in a more compact, modular fashion, offering improvements over conventional on-site approaches to capital construction, operations and maintenance. This modular chemical process intensification (MCPI) offers several benefits over conventional stick-built (CSB) plant construction in terms of reduced footprint, reduced energy consumption, lower cost, less waste and improved safety and quality control. However, acceptance of MCPI over CSB construction practices within the chemical industry can be impeded by the uncertain risks associated with investing in new technology. Furthermore, the work here documents a case study during the development of a modular chemical plant for capturing distributed energy resources within chemical production. This MCPI approach to plant construction is contrasted with a CSB approach for producing the same chemical product. Data collection tools were developed, based on a literature review, and data was collected from the technology developer to understand the process technology. Sensitivity analysis was then conducted to analyze the business rationale for the application of MCPI over CSB across several market scenarios. It was found that MCPI would be better suited for capacities up to 150 000 metric tons per year, but that improvement in payback period was needed. Additionally, for MCPI approach to achieve acceptable payback periods, efforts are needed to reduce the cost of capital equipment and compress the schedule for ramping up modular production.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Hydrogen Storage for Load-Following and Clean Power: Duct-firing of Hydrogen to Improve the Capacity Factor of NGCC Plants (Final Report, Phase II Pre-Front End Engineering Design Study)

GTI Energy (GTI) and team members Southern Company Services (SCS), Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) performed a Phase II Pre-Feed Study under contract DE-FE0032008 for Hydrogen Storage for Load-Following and Clean Power. The configuration of the proposed system consists of subsystems for on-site H 2 production, on-site H 2 storage (up to 54 MWth in commercial vessels) and H 2 combustion in a duct burner in a Heat Recovery Steam Generator (HRSG) integrated with an existing fossil asset. Here, the firing rate of the duct burner is varied to let the plant respond to fluctuations of electrical load and H 2 production is relatively constant by storing H 2 . The proposed system is an improvement over alternate low carbon dispatchable power options. Technoeconomic analyses show H 2 produced with GTI’s patented Compact Hydrogen Generator (CHG) with inherent carbon capture will be lower cost (Levelized Cost of Hydrogen, LCOH) relative to hydrogen produced with a Steam Methane Reformer (SMR) with an amine system for carbon capture. This lower cost hydrogen enables our integrated system to deliver electricity (Levelized Cost of Electricity, LCOE) at 17.4% lower cost relative to a SMR sourced H 2 -fired HRSG (with an amine system for carbon capture) – Steam Turbine Generator (STG). Our analysis using EPRI’s US REGEN macroeconomic model shows our system will have significant demand in the power market and therefore require significant capacity expansion (CHG plants built to deliver hydrogen) to deliver low cost, low carbon power. In Phase II, our Team has completed a detailed system definition including the development of process models, definition of battery limits, Process Flow Diagrams (PFDs), Piping and Instrumentation Drawings (P&IDs), and a plant layout. A preliminary design for the key components of the CHG was developed including component lists & specifications. An evaluation of environmental and permitting considerations was completed and included the development of an Environmental Information Volume (EIV). The duct burners, which are flexible and can burn hydrogen and/or natural gas, were defined and initial CFD analyses were completed.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Nuclear Thermal Energy Storage Configurations for Industrial Combined Heat and Power Supply: Conceptual Study and Engineering Designs

The industries examined in this report primarily rely on moderate-temperature heat provided by gas- or coal-fired boilers and combined heat and power (CHP) plants, delivered through standard process steam systems. High-temperature energy demands are often industry-specific and typically exceed the capabilities of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs). While it is technically feasible to replace process steam from fossil-based heat sources with nuclear energy, certain industries, such as methanol production and pulp and paper, face technoeconomic challenges in integrating nuclear energy without major changes or a technological shift. This is mainly due to the limited external energy demand remaining after the use of internal byproducts, waste heat recovery, and simple efficiency improvements. Achieving full decarbonization of these processes with nuclear energy would require significant technological advancements, involving experimental technology and substantial investments, making widespread adoption in existing industrial plants unlikely in the near term. This study reviews TES options in the context of enabling a flexible CHP supply while maintaining a steady nuclear heat input. Heat storage systems that interface between the reactor primary fluid and the CHP system offer superior performance and flexibility. Specifically, steam extraction downstream of the reheater with a two-tank molten-salt TES appears as the best solution regarding thermodynamic system benefits and system drawbacks. Using selected system configurations, a conceptual design of an industrial energy park was developed for industries with varying energy demands, such as steel production plants utilizing electric arc furnaces (EAFs) and chemical plants, as well as for those with constant energy demands, like petroleum refineries. This design highlights the capabilities of TES and explores its potential business cases. The study also conceptually develops the potential for integrating additional energy sources with nuclear systems through the implementation of TES. The potential of the HTGR-TES-CHP system was also evaluated considering key uncertainties such as industrial demand profiles, external grid access availability, and eligible tax credit levels, using the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network. Sensitivity of net present value to these uncertainties was analyzed to determine the optimal number of nuclear reactors (and CHP systems) and the suitable TES capacity. The results were interpreted from a decision-maker’s perspective, focusing on three key areas: deployment strategy (oversized units vs. undersized units with TES support), industrial process characteristics (thermal-intensive single profiles vs. electricity-intensive combined profiles), and operational goals (maximizing profits vs. minimizing natural gas (NG) consumption or external grid dependence). The optimization results indicate that the HTGR-TES-CHP system significantly reduces reliance on NG boilers for individual industrial processes by 9-60% (in NG capacity factor), with an average reduction of 38%, compared to standalone NG boiler operation case (Business As Usual [BAU]). For combined industrial processes, the reduction ranges from 37-77%, with an average of 60%. Additionally, the system greatly reduces dependence on external grids. In meeting industrial electrical demands, a 33-100% self-sufficient internal electricity supply is achieved for single industrial process, with an average of 74%, compared to the BAU scenario, where 100% of electricity is imported. For combined processes, 35-100% of internal electricity demands are met by the reactor, with an average of 73%. At last, the relative NG price levels at which the proposed HTGR-TES-CHP system can cost-effectively enter the market currently dominated by existing NG boilers were estimated. For a moderate HTGR CAPEX level ($\$$2500/kWth, $\$$6329/kWe), the analysis suggests that NG prices must be 2.5 to 7 times higher than HTGR variable operating and maintenance costs for single industrial process, and 5.5 to 9.5 times higher for a combined process scenario. Tax credit modeling shows that the Investment Tax Credit significantly reduces the price threshold needed to break even, making the system competitive with NG boilers in certain cases.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Transforming Agricultural Productivity with AI-Driven Forecasting: Innovations in Food Security and Supply Chain Optimization

Global food security is under significant threat from climate change, population growth, and resource scarcity. This review examines how advanced AI-driven forecasting models, including machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL), and time-series forecasting models like SARIMA/ARIMA, are transforming regional agricultural practices and food supply chains. Through the integration of Internet of Things (IoT), remote sensing, and blockchain technologies, these models facilitate the real-time monitoring of crop growth, resource allocation, and market dynamics, enhancing decision making and sustainability. The study adopts a mixed-methods approach, including systematic literature analysis and regional case studies. Highlights include AI-driven yield forecasting in European hydroponic systems and resource optimization in southeast Asian aquaponics, showcasing localized efficiency gains. Furthermore, AI applications in food processing, such as plasma, ozone and Pulsed Electric Field (PEF) treatments, are shown to improve food preservation and reduce spoilage. Key challenges—such as data quality, model scalability, and prediction accuracy—are discussed, particularly in the context of data-poor environments, limiting broader model applicability. The paper concludes by outlining future directions, emphasizing context-specific AI implementations, the need for public–private collaboration, and policy interventions to enhance scalability and adoption in food security contexts.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Techno-Economic Analysis for GTI's Compact Hydrogen Generator

A technoeconomic analysis of the compact hydrogen generator compared to a traditional steam methane reformer (SMR) was performed for both processes with and without carbon capture. The project goal for the technoeconomic analysis was to demonstrate a minimum of 20% lower CAPEX and 15% lower levelized cost of hydrogen compared to SMR with and without carbon capture. GTI obtained baseline capital and costs for the SMR with and without and methodology to calculate the levelized cost of hydrogen from an IEAGHG Technical Report: 2017-02 Techno-Economic Evaluation of SMR Based Standalone (Merchant) Hydrogen Plant with CCS. This methodology was then applied to GTI’s compact hydrogen generator using direct material costs previously obtained from a reputable engineering procurement and construction company, CB&I Howe-Baker. The analysis was performed for plants producing 90MMSCFD (million standard cubic feed per day) of hydrogen. Direct material costs were converted to total installed costs and total capital requirements using the same multiplying factors for both processes. We have found that the direct materials cost of the compact hydrogen generator is less than half the direct materials cost required for SMR without capture, and about one quarter the direct materials cost of SMR with carbon capture. This low materials cost translates into a significant CAPEX savings and lower levelized cost of hydrogen that exceed the goals of the techno-economic assessment. We have found that the CHG has a 43% lower installed cost and capital requirement compared to SMR without capture, that results in a levelized cost of hydrogen that is 19% lower than SMR. When 90% CO2 capture is added to the plants, the advantages is even better. The CHG has a 51% lower installed and capital requirement compared to SMR with capture, resulting in a 28% lower levelized cost of hydrogen. A sensitivity analysis was performed and showed natural gas feedstock cost and discount rate to be the main contributors to hydrogen price sensitivity. Given these significant cost advantages, GTI is encouraged to continue to develop the technology and market the economic advantages as well as the efficiency gains and ability to inherently capture CO2.

08 HYDROGEN↗

U.S. DOE/NETL LCA of LNG: Overview & Key (LCA) Challenges

Mr. Timothy Skone provided the opening session presentation at the LNGnet Special Working Group 2: "Managing methane emissions across the LNG value chain" meeting held on virtually on July 1, 2021. The presentation provides a brief overview of NETL life cycle analysis (LCA) modeling of U.S. natural gas production and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to European and Asian markets. The talk focuses on challenges in conducting LCAs of LNG shipments.

Source record↗

Influence of Business Models on PV-Battery Dispatch Decisions and Market Value

PV-battery hybrid projects dominate interconnection queues in some regions in the United States, but few projects have been operational long enough to assess how the hybrid capabilities may be used in practice. We interview plant operators and analyze empirical dispatch data for eleven large-scale PV-battery hybrids in three organized wholesale markets in the United States. We use the dispatch data and wholesale market prices to estimate the market value of our sample hybrids in 2020. The empirical increase in market value of a PV-battery hybrid relative to a standalone PV plant varies by project and ranges from $\$$1 to $\$$48/MWhsolar. The premium is driven by market, location, technical characteristics of the PV and battery asset, and battery dispatch strategies. In contrast to the widespread assumptions in the PV-battery hybrid modeling literature, only three of the eleven project operators optimize battery usage for wholesale market revenue as merchant plants. Instead, the majority of operators in the sample have alternate objectives. For example, load-serving entities target peak load reductions, incentive program participants focus on compliance with program requirements, and large energy consumers prioritize resiliency and utility bill minimization. Understanding prevalent dispatch signals and the degree of alignment with system-wide grid needs can increase the market value of PV-battery hybrids.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Cost-Benefit Analysis for Air Conditioner in Tunisia

This is the second report from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) in support of developing a minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) program for ACs in Tunisia. This report builds upon a market and regulatory assessment that characterized Tunisia’s market and regulations for ACs (LBNL 2022). The current report is organized in the style of the technical support documents (TSDs) produced for U.S. appliance efficiency standards and comprises the following: a description of our analytical framework (Section 1) followed by several analyses of the context for and impacts of adopting a MEPS for ACs in Tunisia: an energy-use analysis (Section 2), engineering analysis (Section 3), life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis (Section 4), and national impact analysis (Section 5). The report concludes with policy recommendations (Section 6).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model

The Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model simulates customer adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the United States or other countries through 2050. The dGen model can be used for identifying the sectors, locations, and customers for whom adopting DERs would have a high economic value, for generating forecasts as an input to estimate distribution hosting capacity analysis, integrated resource planning, and load forecasting, and for understanding the economic or policy conditions in which DER adoption becomes viable, and for illustrating sensitivity to market and policy changes such as retail electricity rate structures, net energy metering, and technology costs.

Array↗

Modeling, analysis, and optimization of complex nuclear processes and facilities via computational methods: The HALEU process case study

Improving and adapting industrial systems to timely meet changing programmatic and market demands is an important goal to achieve, including when operating and maintaining complex nuclear processes and facilities. However, changes to these complex systems are costly, particularly when they are already in place and bounded to stringent requirements and constraints such as when handling radioactive material and contaminated equipment. These conditions often exist when treating spent nuclear fuel remotely within shielded nuclear radiation chambers, commonly referred as hot cells, to condition nuclear material and/or fabricate products for utilization in other nuclear enterprises such as in the manufacture of advanced nuclear fuel. The illustrative case considered here is the production of high assay low enriched uranium (HALEU) products supporting the deployment of advanced nuclear reactors. For the HALEU program, resources invested were and are being systematically analyzed so that these investments are maximized in a facility that is nearly 60 years old. A methodology that has effectively enabled optimized and improvements in the Spent Fuel Treatment (SFT) program, and consequently the HALEU program, involves discrete event simulation as addressed in this article. Here, the quantification of multiple productivity metrics, including material processing rates, cycle times, bottlenecks, number of material transfers as well as equipment, workstation, and material handling utilization, has resulted in a myriad of diverse discoveries and data-informed decisions regarding process layout and constituent, labor levels and schedules, selection of new process units, storage needs, and other critical process configurations. This article describes such a computational capability being applied for decision-making, illustrates its application to an actual process and program, provides illustrative results, and argues how computational methods for the modeling, analysis, and optimization of complex processes and facilities does lead to informed decisions derived from data and not only from intuition.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Report on the Use and Function of the Integrated Operations Capability Analysis Platform (ICAP) and the LWRS Innovation Portal (IP)

The commercial nuclear power industry has achieved excellent safety and reliability performance but is struggling to survive in an electricity market that is increasingly dominated by subsidized renewables and cheap natural gas. These challenges have forced utilities to explore previously uncharted avenues to drastically reduce the operations and maintenance costs of their plants which are the primary drivers of the total cost to produce electricity. The petrochemical industry faced similar challenges some years ago as the costs of extraction and processing were rising while their reservoirs were being depleted along with a drop-in commodity prices that resulted in unsustainable operations. In this challenging climate, they developed a business model called Integrated Operations (IO) that sought to utilize technology to enable news ways of working through the integration of people, technology, process and governance changes. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program, working with IFE have developed an operating model via transferable learnings from the North Sea O&G industry. This framework is termed “Integrated Operations for Nuclear” (ION). ION is a transformation model that integrates the benefits and features of four principal factors: People, Technology, Process and Governance. The purpose of this report is to describe how to generate an ION business process analysis and utilize this information to reduce O&M costs. In order to make this job easier, DOE LWRS has created a suite of tools that will allow a person who is involved in a transformation effort at their company to build a solid documented business case for embarking on a major transformation effort. These tools, the Integrated Operations Capability Analysis Model (ICAP) and the LWRS Innovation Portal (IP) are described herein with instructions on their use. Instructions on how the interface with the EPRI Business Case Analysis Method (BCAM) are also provided.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Siting Analysis of a Solar-Nuclear-Desalination Integrated Energy System

Nuclear power is typically deployed as a baseload generator. Increased penetration of variable renewables motivates combining nuclear and renewable technologies into Integrated Energy Systems (IES) to improve dispatchability, component synergies and, through cogeneration, address multiple markets. However, combining multiple energy resources heavily depends on the proper selection of each system’s location and design limitations. In this paper, co-siting options for IES that couple nuclear and concentrating solar power (CSP) with thermal desalination are investigated. A comprehensive siting analysis is performed that utilizes global information survey data to determine possible co-siting options for nuclear and solar thermal generation in the United States. Viable co-siting options are distributed across the Southwestern U.S., with the greatest concentration of siting options in the southern Great Plains, although siting with higher solar direct normal irradiance is possible in other states such as Arizona and New Mexico. Brackish water desalination is also attractive across the southwest U.S. due to high water stress, but for brackish water desalination reverse osmosis (an electricity driven process) is most cost- and energy-efficient, which does not require co-siting with the thermal generator. The most attractive state for nuclear and thermal desalination (which is more attractive when using seawater) is Texas, although other areas may become attractive as water stress increases over the coming decades. Co-siting of all CSP and thermal desalination is challenging as attractive CSP sites are not coastal.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Creep and Fatigue Characterization of High Strength Alloy Thin Sections in Advanced CO2 Heat Exchangers

The objective of this work was to characterize and model elevated temperature creep and fatigue behavior for thin sheet and foil forms of gamma-prime strengthened alloys in wrought form and as-processed folded and brazed constructions. This work was motivated by the demanding temperature and pressure service conditions of the GEN3 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) and supercritical CO2 (sCO2) power cycle working fluid. More specifically, the possibility of leveraging the superior creep strength of gamma-prime alloys in folded-fin and brazed-plate heat exchanger constructions. Gamma-prime alloys represent a step-change in raw-material strength over solid-solution strengthened alloys. And the folded-fin and brazed-plate heat exchanger architecture is lightweight and leverages cost-effective material stock forms. The investigation contained two parallel paths. (1) The first is referred to as a fundamental investigation where Oak Ridge National Laboratory conducts uniaxial creep testing on thin sheet and foil in wrought form. This effort aimed to serve as a benchmark against a relatively sparse existing database and a baseline comparison for path number 2. (2) The second path is referred to as the practical investigation where Brayton Energy manufactures plate-fin heat exchangers and performs pressurized creep and fatigue testing. This effort aimed to de-risk heat exchanger manufacturing process for service under sCO2 CSP conditions. A total of 14 uniaxial creep tests were completed using Haynes 282 thin sheet and foil. A variety of heat treatments were specified to coincide with path number 2. Baseline metallography of test samples and creep strength performance are contained. Benchmarks relatively to existing thick-form Haynes 282 are made, as well as to other thin-form Nickel-based superalloys. Description of a wrought-form modeling approach for thin gamma-prime alloys is also discussed. A total of 11 pressurized creep and fatigue tests were completed successfully with Haynes 282 heat exchanger prototypes. Manufacturing processing details, testing details, testing results, and failure analysis are discussed. Additionally, creep modeling techniques to predict failure are discussed, and modeling to support technological-to-market. In conclusion, Haynes 282 foils were demonstrated to yield rupture two-to-three orders of magnitude higher than Haynes 230 foils under similar conditions. And the manufactured heat exchanger prototypes demonstrated strength similar to the wrought constituents. Both of which contribute to elevated performance potential or cost savings in practice. Discussion is included.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗