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DOE OSTI2023

Rapid Spaceborne Mapping of Wildfire Retardant Drops for Active Wildfire Management

Aerial application of fire retardant is a critical tool for managing wildland fire spread. Retardant applications are carefully planned to maximize fire line effectiveness, improve firefighter safety, protect high-value resources and assets, and limit environmental impact. However, topography, wind, visibility, and aircraft orientation can lead to differences between planned drop locations and the actual placement of the retardant. Information on the precise placement and areal extent of the dropped retardant can provide wildland fire managers with key information to (1) adaptively manage event resources, (2) assess the effectiveness of retardant slowing or stopping fire spread, (3) document location in relation to ecologically sensitive areas; and perform or validate cost-accounting for drop services. This study uses Sentinel-2 satellite data and commonly used machine learning classifiers to test an automated approach for detecting and mapping retardant application. We show that a multiclass model (retardant, burned, unburned, and cloud artifact classes) outperforms a single-class retardant model and that image differencing (post-application minus pre-application) outperforms single-image models. Compared to the random forest and support vector machine, the gradient boosting model performed the best with an overall accuracy of 0.88 and an F1 Score of 0.76 for fire retardant, though results were comparable for all three models. Our approach maps the full areal extent of the dropped retardant within minutes of image availability, rather than linear representations currently mapped by aerial GPS surveys. The development of this capability allows for the rapid assessment of retardant effectiveness and documentation of placement in relation to sensitive environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advancing AI-Driven Analysis in X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy: Spectral Domain Mapping and Universal Models

In recent years, rapid progress has been made in developing artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) methods for X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) analysis. Compared to traditional XAS analysis methods, AI/ML approaches offer dramatic improvements in efficiency and help eliminate human bias. To advance this field, we advocate an AI-driven XAS analysis pipeline that features several interconnected key building blocks: benchmarks, workflows, databases, and AI/ML models. Specifically, we present two case studies for XAS ML. In the first study, we demonstrate the importance of reconciling the discrepancies between simulation and experiment using spectral domain mapping (SDM). Our ML model, which is trained solely on simulated spectra, predicts an incorrect oxidation state trend for Ti atoms in a combinatorial zinc titanate film. After transforming the experimental spectra into a simulation-like representation using SDM, the same model successfully recovers the correct oxidation state trend. In the second study, we explore the development of universal XAS ML models that are trained on the entire periodic table, which enables them to leverage common trends across elements. Looking ahead, we envision that an AI-driven pipeline can unlock the potential of real-time XAS analysis to accelerate scientific discovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Systematic Analysis of Drivers and Barriers of Cross-Sectorial Learning Between Nuclear and Oil and Gas Decommissioning Projects - 20139

Project and megaproject management in the energy sector have historically focused on the planning and delivery of the construction of infrastructure. Therefore, policies are predominantly oriented to support the construction of infrastructure rather than its decommissioning. However, globally, several facilities have reached (or will soon reach) their end-of-life and need to be decommissioned. These facilities span across the energy sector, including nuclear power plants and oil and gas rigs, whose decommissioning present unprecedented techno-socio-economic challenges. Moreover, globally, their decommissioning cost is estimated to reach hundreds of billions of US dollars and this budget keeps increasing, with limited knowledge-transfer across industries to mitigate the spiraling increase of this figure. Cross-sectorial knowledge-transfer is a way to tackle this matter and improve the planning and delivery of decommissioning and waste management projects. The aim of this research is to build a road-map based on cross-sectorial industrial experience, designed to promote the sharing of good practices between projects both within and across industries dealing with major decommissioning and waste management challenges. To reach this aim, the tacit knowledge of senior practitioners on several large scale nuclear and oil and gas decommissioning projects is made explicit by the means of semi-structured interviews, systematically analyzed through directed content analysis. The results of this analysis include a list of good practices that could and should be transferred to nuclear decommissioning projects, including the need to promote the adoption of incentives explicitly linked to the project deliverables, and to develop long-term plans to support smooth transition from operations to decommissioning. Suggestions about how the knowledge-transfer can be promoted within and across organizations are also discussed. In this way, this research provides practical guidance for project managers and policymakers on how to support the planning and delivery of projects with improved performance. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Extending OpenSHMEM with Aggregation Support for Improved Message Rate Performance

OpenSHMEM is a highly efficient one-sided communication API that implements the PGAS parallel programming model, and is known for its low latency communication operations that can be mapped efficiently to RDMA capabilities of network interconnects. However, applications that use OpenSHMEM can be sensitive to point-to-point message rates, as many-to-many communication patterns can generate large amounts of small messages which tend to overwhelm network hardware that has predominantly been optimised for bandwidth over message rate. Additionally, many important emerging classes of problems such as data analytics are similarly troublesome for the irregular access patterns they employ. Message aggregation strategies have been proven to significantly enhance network performance, but their implementation often involves complex restructuring of user code, making them unwieldy. This paper shows how to combine the best qualities of message aggregation within the communication model of OpenSHMEM such that applications with small and irregular access patterns can improve network performance while maintaining their algorithmic simplicity. We do this by providing a path to a message aggregation framework called conveyors through a minimally intrusive OpenSHMEM extension introducing aggregation contexts that fit more naturally to the OpenSHMEM atomics, gets, and puts model. We test these extensions using four of the bale 3.0 applications which contain essential many-to-many access patterns to show how they can produce performance improvements of up to 65×.

Welch, Aaron↗

DOE OSTI2022

Search for Lepton Flavor Violation in Two Body Muon and Pion Decay at Rest

The ability of the Mu2e experiment to probe, or discover beyond the Standard Model physics in direct Charged Lepton Flavor Violation $\mu^+$ and $\pi^+$ decay modes is estimated. These direct modes are searched for simultaneously with proposed Mu2e detector validation runs, and are complementary to the Mu2e main search goal, an indirect search for $\mu^- \to e^-$ conversion at the sensitivity level of $\sim 10^{-17}$. The $\mu^+$ validation run will operate at 50% nominal magnetic field and reduced proton beam intensity to less than 1/100th nominal, in order to observe the e+ spectrum from $\mu^+$ decay, at and below the Michel edge Ee . 53 MeV. The $\pi^+$ validation run, based on measuring the mono-energetic e+ emission in the decay $\pi^+ \to e+\nu$, at 76% of nominal magnetic field and reduced beam intensity less than 1/5th nominal. Both of these runs can be used to fix the momentum scale for the Mu2e conversion search. In addition the muon validation dataset can be used to correct for systematic errors in the detector response by mapping the well known to O(\u03B13) corrected theoretical Michel spectrum, to the observed spectrum. One direct search is for two-body Charged Lepton Flavor Violation $\mu^+ \to e^+X$ decay, where $X$ is a light new physics particle. This allows Mu2e to explore well motivated models including axion like particles with flavor violating couplings and massive $Z^0$ bosons with more sensitivity then present astrophysical and laboratory constraints. In two weeks of data-taking, Mu2e can achieve direct mode 90% confidence level branching ratio limits of $10^{-7}$ over the mass range $20 \le m_X \le 50$ MeV, improving the current experimental limit at $10^{-5}$ by two orders of magnitude. In the mass range $m_X \le 20$ MeV, assuming systematic error corrections can be made by correcting the Monte Carlo mapping, the achievable search sensitivity is found to be $2.3\times 10^{-7}$ for $m_X =0$, an order of magnitude improvement over the current best limit at $2.6\times 10^{-6}$, when assuming $V+A$ or isotropic coupling. The $\pi^+$ validation run, allows searching for $\pi^+ \to e^+N$ decay, where $N$ is a heavy neutral lepton such as a heavy sterile neutrino, in the mass region $20 \le m_N \le 65$ MeV. A branching ratio limit at 90% confidence level of $3\times 10^{-8}$ can be achieved in two weeks, an improvement of the current search sensitivity limit by an order of magnitude.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Solution-Processed Temperature-Adaptive Radiative Paint as a Thermal Imaging Sensitizer

Thermography detects mid-infrared radiation from surfaces based on the Stefan-Boltzmann law, mapping surface temperatures and potentially revealing subsurface thermal activity. Recent developments offer an alternative strategy to traditional camera-based improvements: a thermal imaging sensitizer (TIS) coating whose emissivity increases sharply with local temperature, amplifying small thermal variations into high-contrast signals. Existing TIS structures are nanofabricated solid membranes and face significant challenges in fabrication complexity. Here, in this study, we present a solution-processed, liquid form of TIS, termed temperature-adaptive radiative paint (TARP), to address these limitations. TARP offers drastically reduced fabrication costs, scalability to large areas, applicability to curved surfaces, and an extended operating temperature range, while maintaining the function of temperature amplification. Application of TARP enhances small temperature contrast by more than 3 times, substantially improving ambient thermography and enabling broader applications such as detection of structural defects and hot spots in electronic components.

paint↗

DOE OSTI2025

Global River Topology (GRIT): A Bifurcating River Hydrography

Existing global river networks underpin a wide range of hydrological applications but do not represent channels with divergent river flows (bifurcations, multi‐threaded channels, canals), as these features defy the convergent flow assumption that elevation‐derived networks (e.g., HydroSHEDS, MERIT Hydro) are based on. Yet, bifurcations are important features of the global river drainage system, especially on large floodplains and river deltas, and are also often found in densely populated regions. Here we developed the first raster and vector‐based Global RIver Topology that not only represents the tributaries of the global drainage network but also the distributaries, including multi‐threaded rivers, canals and deltas. We achieve this by merging a 30 m Landsat‐based river mask with elevation‐generated streams to ensure a homogeneous drainage density outside of the river mask for rivers narrower than approximately 30 m. Crucially, we employ the new 30 m digital terrain model, FABDEM, based on TanDEM‐X, which shows greater accuracy over the traditionally used SRTM derivatives. After vectorization and pruning, directionality is assigned by a series of elevation, flow angle and continuity approaches. The new global network and its attributes are validated using gauging stations, comparison with existing networks, and randomized manual checks. The new network represents 19.6 million km of streams and rivers with drainage areas greater than 50 km 2 and includes 67,495 bifurcations. With the advent of hyper‐resolution modeling and artificial intelligence, GRIT is expected to greatly improve the accuracy of many river‐based applications such as flood forecasting, water availability and quality simulations, or riverine habitat mapping.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The benefits of CMB delensing

The effects of gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) have been measured at high significance with existing data and will be measured even more precisely in future surveys. Reversing the effects of lensing on the observed CMB temperature and polarization maps provides a variety of benefits. Delensed CMB spectra have sharper acoustic peaks and more prominent damping tails, allowing for improved inferences of cosmological parameters that impact those features. Delensing reduces B-mode power, aiding the search for primordial gravitational waves and allowing for lower variance reconstruction of lensing and other sources of secondary CMB anisotropies. Lensing-induced power spectrum covariances are reduced by delensing, simplifying analyses and improving constraints on primordial non-Gaussianities. Biases that result from incorrectly modeling nonlinear and baryonic feedback effects on the lensing power spectrum are mitigated by delensing. All of these benefits are possible without any changes to experimental or survey design. Here, we develop a self-consistent, iterative, all-orders treatment of CMB delensing on the curved sky and demonstrate the impact that delensing will have with future surveys.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Selecting samples of galaxies with fewer Fingers-of-God

The radial positions of galaxies inferred from their measured redshift appear distorted due to their peculiar velocities. We argue that the contribution from stochastic velocities — which gives rise to `Fingers-of-God' (FoG) anisotropy in the inferred maps — does not lend itself to perturbative modelling already on scales targeted by current experiments. To get around this limitation, we propose to remove FoG using data-driven indicators of their abundance that are local in nature and thus avoid selection biases. In particular, we show that the scale where the measured power spectrum quadrupole changes sign is tightly anti-correlated with both the satellite fraction and the velocity dispersion, and can thus be used to select galaxy samples with fewer FoG. In addition, we show that excluding galaxies in haloes more massive than a given mass threshold can help to discard many of the most problematic galaxies. Such selection could be achieved in practice using maps of the thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich distortion of the cosmic microwave background frequency spectrum. These techniques could potentially improve reconstructions of the large-scale velocity and displacement fields from the redshift-space positions of galaxies. They may also extend the reach of perturbative models for galaxy clustering, though in practice we find only marginal gains when fitting one-loop EFTofLSS models to simulations with mitigated FoG due to the relevance of other effects entering at two-loop order.

cosmological parameters from LSS↗

DOE OSTI2026

TEM Approaches for Microstructure-Informed Prediction of Mechanical Properties in Structural Alloys

Predicting the mechanical performance of structural alloys from their evolving microstructure remains a major challenge in materials science, particularly for nuclear structural materials, where irradiation-induced defects span multiple types and length scales and interact through complex mechanisms. The dispersed barrier hardening (DBH) [1] and Friedel–Kroupa–Hirsch (FKH) [2,3] models have been widely used to evaluate the hardening contributions of individual obstacles and to estimate tensile strength from quantified microstructures; however, when multiple size-dependent obstacles coexist and evolve, predicting temperature-dependent tensile strength becomes significantly more complex, and a fully consistent hardening model is still lacking. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) plays a central role in refining hardening models and enabling predictive assessments of tensile strength evolution by providing quantitative characterization of dislocations, irradiation-induced defects (e.g., dislocation loops and cavities), precipitates, and grain structure (Fig. 1.). These experimentally measured defect densities are incorporated into physically based hardening models with size- and shape- dependent obstacle strengths [4], using root-sum-square superposition for obstacles of comparable strength and linear superposition for dissimilar ones [5]. In addition, recent advances in TEM [6-8], including high-resolution imaging, 4D-STEM strain mapping, EDS/EELS elemental analysis, and flash-polishing-based TEM specimen preparation and extraction-replica methods (Fig. 2), further improve the accuracy of microstructural quantification. By comparison with prior studies as well as our own results, we show that when TEM-derived microstructural information is carefully integrated with physically grounded hardening models, yield strength (or irradiation-induced hardening) measured at room temperature can be predicted with good quantitative agreement across multiple alloy classes. In-situ TEM combined with high-temperature mechanical testing represents an important next step for refining hardening models by directly probing dislocation–obstacle interactions across varying irradiation doses and temperatures [9]. Because the barrier strength factor (α) depends on both temperature and obstacle size, it should not be treated as a constant fitting parameter; rather, it must be explicitly evaluated to achieve physically meaningful predictions of mechanical behaviour at operating temperatures. This presentation therefore discusses why all strengthening contributions (e.g., Peierls stress, solid-solution strengthening, voids, bubbles, dislocation loops, dislocation lines, and grain boundaries) must be considered collectively, why appropriate superposition methods are essential when obstacles possess different barrier strength factors, how hardness measurements can be meaningfully related to tensile properties, and how TEM-derived microstructural information can be systematically incorporated into hardening models. More broadly, it outlines a pathway toward microstructure-informed prediction of mechanical properties and supports the goal of establishing science-based tools for evaluating structural materials in extreme environments [10].

Lin, Yan-Ru [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000339991473)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Coherence-mediated quantum thermometry in a hybrid circuit quantum electrodynamics architecture

Quantum thermometry plays a critical role in the development of low-temperature sensors and quantum information platforms. Here, in this work, we propose and analyze a hybrid circuit quantum electrodynamics architecture in which a superconducting qubit is dispersively coupled to two distinct bosonic modes: one initialized in a weak coherent state as a phase reference and information buffer and the other coupled to a thermal environment. We show that the qubit serves as a sensitive readout of the probe mode, mapping the interplay between thermal and coherent photon-number fluctuations onto measurable dephasing. This coherence-mediated mechanism enables improved sensitivity to thermal energy fluctuations in the sub-millikelvin regime through Ramsey interferometry. We derive analytic expressions for the probe coherence envelope, compute the quantum Fisher information for temperature estimation, and demonstrate numerically that the presence of a coherent reference enhances the qubit's sensitivity to small changes in thermal photon occupancy. Our results establish a coherence-enabled approach to thermometry and provide a scalable platform for future calorimetric sensing in high-energy physics and quantum metrology.

Zhu, Shaojiang [Fermi National Accelerator Laborat↗

DOE OSTI2023

Prepare Ground States of Highly Frustrated Magnetic Clusters on Quantum Computers

Solving challenging problems in physical, chemical, and materials sciences is one of the most promising applications of quantum utility that can be realized on current noisy hardware, considering (i) the direct map (encoding) from the quantum particles and their interactions to the qubits and their entangling gates and (ii) the rapidly improved quantum hardware and advanced error-mitigation techniques. Understanding quantum spin liquid in frustrated magnetic materials is a longstanding challenge in condensed matter physics and the nature of the ground-state phases is highly debated among researchers. Using IBM quantum computers with superconducting qubits, we implemented a variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) algorithm to prepare the ground states of two 12-site cluster approximations of these highly frustrated magnetic materials. The interaction graphs of the two corresponding Hamiltonians are (a) the six-pointed star graph (a unit cell of the kagome lattice) and (b) the cuboctahedral graph (the kagome on a sphere). These are also two instances of Quantum Max Cut problem. With the VQE based on the Hamiltonian variational ansatz acting on a valence bond solid initial trial state, we prepared the ground states and obtained the exact ground energy on simulator and high accuracy on noisy hardware. The deep ansatz necessary to reach the ground state of the cuboctahedral graph indicates that it is a hard instance of Quantum Max Cut.

Wang, Yan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Electric Mobility Opportunities for Brooklyn Park, Minnesota

This report will support Brooklyn Park as it navigates changes in mobility technologies and approaches to best serve the transportation needs of its communities. The content details the advantages of electric mobility, reviews electric mobility options that meet diverse needs and constraints, and maps the benefits and limitations of these options in terms of available technologies, their uses, and incentives that aim to improve accessibility and affordability. Although personal EVs provide both individual and collective advantages to residents - from lowering the total cost of ownership over the lifetime of a vehicle to improving air quality in the surrounding environment by reducing tailpipe emissions - they may still be unaffordable and/or inaccessible to some households in Brooklyn Park. Therefore, this report provides an overview of other accessible and affordable electric mobility options, including electric carshares, e-micromobility (i.e., e-scooters, e-bikes), and on-demand services, as enabled by web-connected technologies and the proliferation of smartphones.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multimodal Data Fusion with 3D Gamma-Ray Imaging for Safeguards (2023 Annual Report)

Improve the quantitative results obtained from 3D gamma-ray imagers for use in safeguards inspections. In FY23 the work focused on continuing to improve the numerical results obtained with gamma-ray imagers and explore approaches to project such data onto 3D structures mapped with Self Localization and Mapping (SLAM) hardware and software.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Yet Another Discriminant Analysis (YADA): A Probabilistic Model for Machine Learning Applications

This paper presents a probabilistic model for various machine learning (ML) applications. While deep learning (DL) has produced state-of-the-art results in many domains, DL models are complex and over-parameterized, which leads to high uncertainty about what the model has learned, as well as its decision process. Further, DL models are not probabilistic, making reasoning about their output challenging. In contrast, the proposed model, referred to as Yet Another Discriminate Analysis(YADA), is less complex than other methods, is based on a mathematically rigorous foundation, and can be utilized for a wide variety of ML tasks including classification, explainability, and uncertainty quantification. YADA is thus competitive in most cases with many state-of-the-art DL models. Ideally, a probabilistic model would represent the full joint probability distribution of its features, but doing so is often computationally expensive and intractable. Hence, many probabilistic models assume that the features are either normally distributed, mutually independent, or both, which can severely limit their performance. YADA is an intermediate model that (1) captures the marginal distributions of each variable and the pairwise correlations between variables and (2) explicitly maps features to the space of multivariate Gaussian variables. Numerous mathematical properties of the YADA model can be derived, thereby improving the theoretic underpinnings of ML. Validation of the model can be statistically verified on new or held-out data using native properties of YADA. However, there are some engineering and practical challenges that we enumerate to make YADA more useful.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Bayesian Approach to the Eagar–Tsai Model for Melt Pool Geometry Prediction with Implications in Additive Manufacturing of Metals

Here, this paper focuses on improving the melt pool geometry predictions and quantifying uncertainties using an adapted version of the Eagar–Tsai (E–T) model that incorporates temperature-dependent properties of the material as well as powder conditions. Additionally, Bayesian inference is employed to predict distributions for the E–T model input parameters of laser absorptivity and powder bed porosity by incorporating experimental results into the analysis. Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation is then used with these parameter distributions to estimate the melt pool depth and associated uncertainty. Our results for the 316L stainless steel suggest that both the absorptivity and powder bed porosity are strongly influenced by the laser power. In contrast, the scanning speed has only a marginal effect on both the absorptivity and powder bed porosity. We constructed a printability map using the Bayesian E–T model based on power-dependent input parameter values to demonstrate the merit of the approach. The Bayesian approach improved the accuracy in predicting the keyhole regions in the laser power-scan speed parameter space for the 316L stainless steel. Although applied to a specific adaptation of the E–T model, the method put forth can be extended to quantify uncertainties in other numerical models as well as in the estimation of unknown parameters.

316L Stainless Steel (SS).↗

DOE OSTI2022

Projected network performance for multiple isotopes using next-generation xenon monitoring systems

Since about 2000 (Bowyer et al., 1998), radioxenon monitoring systems have been under development and testing for the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Operation of the systems since then has resulted in development of a next-generation of systems that are nearly ready for operational deployment. By 2010, the need to screen out civilian sources was well known (Auer et al., 2010; Saey, 2009), and isotopic ratio approaches were soon considered (Kalinowski et al., 2014) to identify specific sources. New generation systems are expected to improve the ability to verify the absence of nuclear tests by using isotopic ratios when multiple isotopes are detected. In this work, thousands of releases were simulated to compute the global detection probability of 131m Xe, 133m Xe, 133 Xe, and 135 Xe at 39 noble gas systems in the International Monitoring System (IMS) for both current and next-generation systems. Three release scenarios are defined at 1 h, 1 d, and 10 d past a 1 kt TNT equivalent 235U explosion event. Multiple cases using from one part in a million to the complete release of the xenon isotopic activity are evaluated for each scenario. Coverage maps and global integrals comparing current and next-generation monitoring systems are presented showing that next-generation noble gas systems will create measurable improvements in the IMS. The global detection probability for 133 Xe is shown to be strong in all scenarios, but only modestly improved by next-generation equipment. However, the detection probability for 131m Xe and 133m Xe increased to about 50% in different scenarios, providing a second detectable isotope for many events. As anticipated from shorter sampling intervals, the expected number of detecting samples roughly doubled and the expected number of detecting stations rose by approximately 50% for all release scenarios. Thus, it might be anticipated that future events would consist of multiple 133 Xe detections and one or more second isotope detections. In conclusion, signals of this nature should increase detection confidence, tighten release location estimates, improve rejection of civilian signals, and lessen the impacts from individual systems being offline for maintenance or repair reasons.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2023

Explainable deep learning for insights in El Niño and river flows

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a semi-periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences interannual variability in regional hydrology across the world through long-range dependence or teleconnections. Recent research has demonstrated the value of Deep Learning (DL) methods for improving ENSO prediction as well as Complex Networks (CN) for understanding teleconnections. However, gaps in predictive understanding of ENSO-driven river flows include the black box nature of DL, the use of simple ENSO indices to describe a complex phenomenon and translating DL-based ENSO predictions to river flow predictions. Here we show that eXplainable DL (XDL) methods, based on saliency maps, can extract interpretable predictive information contained in global SST and discover SST information regions and dependence structures relevant for river flows which, in tandem with climate network constructions, enable improved predictive understanding. Our results reveal additional information content in global SST beyond ENSO indices, develop understanding of how SSTs influence river flows, and generate improved river flow prediction, including uncertainty estimation. Observations, reanalysis data, and earth system model simulations are used to demonstrate the value of the XDL-CN based methods for future interannual and decadal scale climate projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗