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At least 343 records · Page 19

Improved Constraints on Global Methane Emissions and Sinks Using δ13C-CH4

We study the drivers behind the global atmospheric methane (CH4) increase observed after 2006. Candidate emission and sink scenarios are constructed based on proposed hypotheses in the literature. These scenarios are simulated in the TM5 tracer transport model for 1984–2016 to produce three-dimensional fields of CH4 and δ13C-CH4, which are compared with observations to test the competing hypotheses in the literature in one common model framework. We find that the fossil fuel (FF) CH4 emission trend from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research 4.3.2 inventory does not agree with observed δ13C-CH4. Increased FF CH4 emissions are unlikely to be the dominant driver for the post-2006 global CH4 increase despite the possibility for a small FF emission increase. We also find that a significant decrease in the abundance of hydroxyl radicals (OH) cannot explain the post-2006 global CH4 increase since it does not track the observed decrease in global mean δ13C-CH4. Different CH4 sinks have different fractionation factors for δ13C-CH4, thus we can investigate the uncertainty introduced by the reaction of CH4 with tropospheric chlorine (Cl), a CH4 sink whose abundance, spatial distribution, and temporal changes remain uncertain. Our results show that including or excluding tropospheric Cl as a 13 Tg/year CH4 sink in our model changes the magnitude of estimated fossil emissions by ∼20%. We also found that by using different wetland emissions based on a static versus a dynamic wetland area map, the partitioning between FF and microbial sources differs by 20 Tg/year, ∼12% of estimated fossil emissions.

X. Lan↗

Magnetic Structure and Propagation of Two Interacting CMEs from the Sun to Saturn

One of the grand challenges in heliophysics is the characterization of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic structure and evolution from eruption at the Sun through heliospheric propagation. At present, the main difficulties are related to the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fi elds and the lack of 3D in-situ measurements of the CME body in interplanetary space. Nevertheless, the evolution of a CME magnetic structure can be followed using a combination of multi-point remote-sensing observations and multi-spacecraft in-situ measurements as well as modelling. Accordingly, we present in this work the analysis of two CMEs that erupted from the Sun on 28 April 2012. We follow their eruption and early evolution using remote-sensing data, fi nding indications of CME{CME interaction, and then analyse their interplanetary counterpart(s) using in-situ measurements at Venus, Earth, and Saturn. We observe a seemingly single flux rope at all locations, but find possible signatures of interaction at Earth, where high-cadence plasma data are available. Reconstructions of the in-situ flux ropes provide almost identical results at Venus and Earth but show greater discrepancies at Saturn, suggesting that the CME was highly distorted and/or that further interaction with nearby solar wind structures took place before 10 AU. This work highlights the difficulties in connecting structures from the Sun to the outer heliosphere and demonstrates the importance of multi-spacecraft studies to achieve a deeper understanding of the magnetic confi guration of CMEs.

Erika Palmerio↗

Progress of chemical characterization of asteroid Ryugu samples

It is believed that meteorites come from asteroids. Samples of asteroid (25143) Itokawa returned by the JAXA Hayabusa mission revealed that S-type asteroids are composed of materials consistent with the ordinary chondrite class[1,2]. The JAXA Hayabusa 2 [3]spacecraft launched on December 3rd, 2014 towards an asteroid (162173) Ryuguto clarify relationships between C-type asteroids and the carbonaceous chondrite class. Remote sensing observations from Hayabusa 2 show that (1) the albedo of Ryugu is darker than those of every known meteorite class[4, 5], (2) an absorption band at 2.72 μm indicates that phyllosilicates are ubiquitous on Ryugu [5],(3) the strength and shape of the absorption band feature suggests that Ryugu materials experienced heating above 300 °C[6], and (4) thermal inertia suggests that Ryugu materials are more porous than every known carbonaceous chondrite[7]. These results suggest that carbonaceous chondrite class materials are plausible for Ryugu materials, but no known carbonaceous chondrite completely matches the results obtained from Ryugu. *Complete abstract available in attached document

Lan Anh Ngoc Nguyen↗

Quantifying Earth System Interactions for Sustainable Food Production Via Expert Elicitation

Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production.

Expert knowledge elicitation↗

Interplanetary Mesoscale Observatory (InterMeso): A Mission to Untangle Dynamic Mesoscale Structures Throughout the Heliosphere

Mesoscale dynamics are a fundamental process in space physics, but fall within an observational gap of current and planned missions. Particularly in the solar wind, measurements at the mesoscales (100s RE to a few degrees heliographic longitude at 1 au) are crucial for understanding the connection between the corona and an observer anywhere within the heliosphere. Mesoscale dynamics may also be key to revealing the currently unresolved physics regulating particle acceleration and transport, magnetic field topology, and the causes of variability in the composition and acceleration of solar wind plasma. Studies using single-point observations do not allow for investigations into mesoscale solar wind dynamics and plasma variability, nor do they allow for the exploration of the sub-structuring of large-scale solar wind structures like coronal mass ejections (CMEs), co-rotating/stream interaction regions (CIR/SIRs), and the heliospheric plasma sheet. To address this fundamental gap in our knowledge of the heliosphere at these scales, the Interplanetary Mesoscale Observatory (InterMeso) concept employs a multi-point approach using four identical spacecraft in Earth-trailing orbits near 1 au. Varying drift speeds of the InterMeso spacecraft enable the mission to span a range of mesoscale separations in the solar wind, achieving significant and innovative science return. Simultaneous, longitudinally-separated measurements of structures co-rotating over the spacecraft also allow for disambiguation of spatiotemporal variability, tracking of the evolution of solar wind structures, and determination of how the transport of energetic particles is impacted by these variabilities.

solar wind↗

Interplanetary Mesoscale Observatory (InterMeso): A mission to untangle dynamic mesoscale structures throughout the heliosphere

Mesoscale dynamics are a fundamental process in space physics, but fall within an observational gap of current and planned missions. Particularly in the solar wind, measurements at the mesoscales (100s RE to a few degrees heliographic longitude at 1 au) are crucial for understanding the connection between the corona and an observer anywhere within the heliosphere. Mesoscale dynamics may also be key to revealing the currently unresolved physics regulating particle acceleration and transport, magnetic field topology, and the causes of variability in the composition and acceleration of solar wind plasma. Studies using single-point observations do not allow for investigations into mesoscale solar wind dynamics and plasma variability, nor do they allow for the exploration of the sub-structuring of large-scale solar wind structures like coronal mass ejections (CMEs), co-rotating/stream interaction regions (CIR/SIRs), and the heliospheric plasma sheet. To address this fundamental gap in our knowledge of the heliosphere at these scales, the Interplanetary Mesoscale Observatory (InterMeso) concept employs a multi-point approach using four identical spacecraft in Earth-trailing orbits near 1 au. Varying drift speeds of the InterMeso spacecraft enable the mission to span a range of mesoscale separations in the solar wind, achieving significant and innovative science return. Simultaneous, longitudinally-separated measurements of structures co-rotating over the spacecraft also allow for disambiguation of spatiotemporal variability, tracking of the evolution of solar wind structures, and determination of how the transport of energetic particles is impacted by these variabilities.

solar wind↗

ICME Structure and Evolution in the Inner Heliosphere

Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) have been studied for decades using various methods and observational tools; however, their internal structure, transport and evolution in the inner heliosphere remains poorly understood. Similarly, the transport and diffusion of solar energetic particles on their way to 1 AU is surrounded by controversy. This white paper outlines possible next research objectives and a possible multi-spacecraft mission concept (HELIIX) that would provide the measurements to achieve these objectives.

Adam Szabo↗

Unifying the Validation of Ambient Solar Wind Models

Progress in space weather research and awareness needs community-wide strategies and procedures to evaluate our modeling assets. Here we present the activities of the Ambient Solar Wind Validation Team embedded in the COSPAR ISWAT initiative. We aim to bridge the gap between model developers and end-users to provide the community with an assessment of the state-of-the-art in solar wind forecasting. To this end, we develop an open online platform for validating solar wind models by comparing their solutions with in situ spacecraft measurements. The online platform will allow the space weather community to test the quality of state-of-the-art solar wind models with unified metrics providing an unbiased assessment of progress over time. In this study, we propose a metadata architecture and recommend community-wide forecasting goals and validation metrics. We conclude with a status update of the online platform and outline future perspectives.

Space weather↗

Wetland Emission and Atmospheric Sink Changes Explain Methane Growth in 2020

Atmospheric methane growth reached an exceptionally high rate of 15.1 ± 0.4 parts per billion per year in 2020 despite a probable decrease in anthropogenic methane emissions during COVID-19 lockdowns(1). Here we quantify changes in methane sources and in its atmospheric sink in 2020 compared with 2019. We find that, globally, total anthropogenic emissions decreased by 1.2 ± 0.1 teragrams of methane per year (Tg CH4 yr−1), fire emissions decreased by 6.5 ± 0.1 Tg CH4 yr−1 and wetland emissions increased by 6.0 ± 2.3 Tg CH4 yr−1. Tropospheric OH concentration decreased by 1.6 ± 0.2 per cent relative to 2019, mainly as a result of lower anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions and associated lower free tropospheric ozone during pandemic lockdowns(2). From atmospheric inversions, we also infer that global net emissions increased by 6.9 ± 2.1 Tg CH4 yr−1 in 2020 relative to 2019, and global methane removal from reaction with OH decreased by 7.5 ± 0.8 Tg CH4 yr−1. Therefore, we attribute the methane growth rate anomaly in 2020 relative to 2019 to lower OH sink (53 ± 10 per cent) and higher natural emissions (47 ± 16 per cent), mostly from wetlands. In line with previous findings(3,4,) our results imply that wetland methane emissions are sensitive to a warmer and wetter climate and could act as a positive feedback mechanism in the future. Our study also suggests that nitrogen oxide emission trends need to be taken into account when implementing the global anthropogenic methane emissions reduction pledge(5).

Shushi Peng↗

Estimating Emissions of Methane Consistent with Atmospheric Measurements of Methane and δC-13 of Methane

We have constructed an atmospheric inversion framework based on TM5-4DVAR to jointly assimilate measurements of methane and δC-13 of methane in order to estimate source-specific methane emissions. Here we present global emission estimates from this framework for the period 1999–2016. We assimilate a newly constructed, multi-agency database of CH4 and δC-13 measurements. We find that traditional CH4-only atmospheric inversions are unlikely to estimate emissions consistent with atmospheric δC-13 data and assimilating δC-13 data is necessary to derive emissions consistent with both measurements. Our framework attributes ca. 85% of the post-2007 growth in atmospheric methane to microbial sources, with about half of that coming from the tropics between 23.5° N and 23.5° S. This contradicts the attribution of the recent growth in the methane budget of the Global Carbon Project (GCP). We find that the GCP attribution is only consistent with our top-down estimate in the absence of δC-13 data. We find that at global and continental scales, δC-13 data can separate microbial from fossil methane emissions much better than CH4 data alone, and at smaller scales this ability is limited by the current δC-13 measurement coverage. Finally, we find that the largest uncertainty in using δC-13 data to separate different methane source types comes from our knowledge of atmospheric chemistry, specifically the distribution of tropospheric chlorine and the isotopic discrimination of the methane sink.

Methane↗

Validation and Interpretation of a Three-dimensional Configuration of a Magnetic Cloud Flux Rope

One strong magnetic cloud (MC)with a magnetic field magnitude reaching∼40 nT at 1 au during 2012 June16–17 is examined in association with a preexisting magnetic flux rope (MFR)identified on the Sun. The MC is characterized by a quasi-three-dimensional(3D) flux rope model based on in situ measurements from the Wind spacecraft. The contents of the magnetic flux and other parameters are quantified. In addition, a correlative study with the corresponding measurements of the same structure crossed by the Venus Express (VEX)spacecraft at a heliocentric distance of 0.7 au and with an angular separation of∼6°in longitude is performed to validate the MC modeling results. The spatial variation between the Wind and VEX magnetic field measurements is attributed to the3D configuration of the structure appearing as a knotted bundle of flux. A comparison of the magnetic flux contents between the MC and the preexisting MFR on the Sun indicates that the 3D reconnection process accompanying anM1.9flare may correspond to the magnetic reconnection between the field lines of the preexisting MFR rooted in the opposite polarity foot points. Such a process reduces the amount of the axial magnetic flux in the erupted flux rope, by approximately 50%, in this case.

Qiang Hu↗

Improved Global Wetland Carbon Isotopic Signatures Support Post-2006 Microbial Methane Emission Increase

Atmospheric concentrations of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, have strongly increased since 2007. Measurements of stable carbon isotopes of methane can constrain emissions if the isotopic compositions are known; however, isotopic compositions of methane emissions from wetlands are poorly constrained despite their importance. Here, we use a process-based biogeochemistry model to calculate the stable carbon isotopic composition of global wetland methane emissions. We estimate a mean global signature of −61.3 ± 0.7‰ and find that tropical wetland emissions are enriched by ~11‰ relative to boreal wetlands. Our model shows improved resolution of regional, latitudinal and global variations in isotopic composition of wetland emissions. Atmospheric simulation scenarios with the improved wetland isotopic composition suggest that increases in atmospheric methane since 2007 are attributable to rising microbial emissions. Our findings substantially reduce uncertainty in the stable carbon isotopic composition of methane emissions from wetlands and improve understanding of the global methane budget.

Methane↗

Parker Solar Probe Observations of High Plasma β Solar Wind From the Streamer Belt

In general, slow solar wind from the streamer belt forms a high plasma β equatorial plasma sheet around the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) crossing, namely, the heliospheric plasma sheet (HPS). Current Parker Solar Probe (PSP) observations show that the HCS crossings near the Sun could be full or partial current sheet (PCS) crossings, and they share some common features but also have different properties. In this work, using the PSP observations from encounters 4–10, we identify streamer belt solar wind from enhancements in plasma β, and we further use electron pitch angle distributions to separate it into HPS solar wind around the full HCS crossings and PCS solar wind in the vicinity of PCS crossings. Based on our analysis, we find that the PCS solar wind has different characteristics as compared with HPS solar wind: (a) the PCS solar wind could be non-pressure-balanced structures rather than magnetic holes, and the total pressure enhancement mainly results from the less reduced magnetic pressure; (b) some of the PCS solar wind is mirror-unstable; and (c) the PCS solar wind is dominated by very low helium abundance but varied alpha–proton differential speed. We suggest that the PCS solar wind could originate from coronal loops deep inside the streamer belt, and it is pristine solar wind that still actively interacts with ambient solar wind; thus, it is valuable for further investigations of the heating and acceleration of slow solar wind.

Slow solar wind↗

The Faraday Effect Tracker of Coronal and Heliospheric Structure (FETCH) Instrument

There continue to be open questions regarding the solar wind and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). For example: how do magnetic fields within CMEs and corotating/stream interaction regions (CIRs/SIRs) evolve in the inner heliosphere? What is the radially distributed magnetic profile of shock-driving CMEs? What is the internal magnetic structure of CMEs that cause magnetic storms? It is clear that these questions involve the magnetic configurations of solar wind and transient interplanetary plasma structures, for which we have limited knowledge. In order to better understand the origin of the magnetic field variability in steady-state structures and transient events, it is necessary to probe the magnetic field in Earth-directed structures/disturbances. This is the goal of the Multiview Observatory for Solar Terrestrial Science (MOST) mission (Gopalswamy et al., 2022). For MOST to answer the aforementioned questions, we propose the instrument concept of the Faraday Effect Tracker of Coronal and Heliospheric structures (FETCH), a simultaneous quad-line-of-sight polarization radio remote-sensing instrument. With FETCH, spacecraft radio beams passing through the Sun–Earth line offer the possibility of obtaining information of plasma conditions via analysis of radio propagation effects such as Faraday rotation and wave dispersion, which provide information of the magnetic field and total electron content (TEC). This is the goal of the FETCH instrument, one of ten instruments proposed to be hosted on the MOST mission. The MOST mission will provide an unprecedented opportunity to achieve NASA’s heliophysics science goal to “explore and characterize the physical processes in the space environment from the Sun” (Gopalswamy et al., 2022).

Solar corona↗

HF Vapor Etching for Stardust Particle Extraction: A Progress Report

The Stardust mission captured thousands of particles from Jupiter-family comet 81P/Wild 2 using aluminum foil and silica aerogel collection media [1]. Most studies of Wild 2 material examine refractory terminal particles >1 μm in diameter which are extracted individually from the ends of tracks produced by the particle’s impact into the aerogel medium. A substantial (>65 %) mass fraction of the impactors is present as fine-grained (i.e. <1 μm) material in the ‘bulb’ and walls of the tracks, which may contain preserved organic material and presolar grains [2]. Few presolar grains have been identified in Stardust samples, which has been interpreted as owing to destruction upon impact into the foils and preferential sampling of terminal particles rather than a lack of presolar grains in Wild 2 samples [3-5]. By isolating the fine-grained material from these bulbs and performing microbeam and isotopic analyses (i.e., scanning electron microscopy and NanoSIMS), organic matter and presolar grains can be identified and constraints can be placed on the constituents of primitive outer solar system materials.

Stardust↗

Lunar Solar Occultation Explorer (Lunasox)

In the present decade and beyond, now 51 years after the last Apollo landing, the NASA Artemis human exploration program will offer abundant opportunities for heliophysics investigations from, by, and of the Moon from the vantage points of the lunar orbit and the surface. The Lunar Solar Occultation Explorer (LunaSOX) concept uses the lunar limb to occult the solar disk for high-resolution coronal observations at hourly, daily, to biweekly cadences from spacecraft either in the lunar orbit or at the surface. A 0.2 m diameter solar telescope in orbit with white light and narrow-band visible filters would provide arcsecond spectroscopic imaging of the low-to-high corona (1–10 R☉) with an upper limit of 10 –12 B☉ on the local scattered light background from lunar atmospheric dust, as compared to 10 –9 B☉ for Earth ground-based solar eclipse observations looking up through the atmosphere at totality. For eclipse observations from and by the Moon, there would be no significant atmospheric disturbances that otherwise limit seeing to arcsec resolution from Earth’s surface. The present eccentric orbits of the ARTEMIS P1 and P2 spacecraft are used as models for a 1 × 10 Rm orbit of LunaSOX to compute the times of solar eclipse intervals, up to 2 hours in duration between the east and west solar hemispheres at a daily cadence for coronal observations at 1–16 R☉ when the orbital aposelene is in anti-sunward directions. In a low-altitude circular orbit and from the surface, the observational cadences would, respectively, be hourly and biweekly. LunaSOX satellites also carrying in situ space environment instruments could integrate into a network of orbital platforms for space weather monitoring and communications relay to far-side surface lander and permanent base sites, e.g., for low-frequency radio cosmology and detection of exoplanet magnetospheres.

John F Cooper↗

CME Propagation Through the Heliosphere: Status and Future of Observations and Model Development

The ISWAT (International Space Weather Action Teams) heliosphere clusters H1 and H2 have a focus on interplanetary space and its characteristics, especially on the large-scale co-rotating and transient structures impacting Earth. Solar wind stream interaction regions, generated by the interaction between high-speed solar wind originating in large-scale open coronal magnetic fields and slower solar wind from closed magnetic fields, are regions of compressed plasma and magnetic field followed by high-speed streams that recur at the ~27 day solar rotation period. Short-term reconfigurations of the lower coronal magnetic field generate flare emissions and provide the energy to accelerate enormous amounts of magnetised plasma and particles in the form of coronal mass ejections into interplanetary space. The dynamic interplay between these phenomena changes the configuration of interplanetary space on various temporal and spatial scales which in turn influences the propagation of individual structures. While considerable efforts have been made to model the solar wind, we outline the limitations arising from the rather large uncertainties in parameters inferred from observations that make reliable predictions of the structures impacting Earth difficult. Moreover, the increased complexity of interplanetary space as solar activity rises in cycle 25 is likely to pose a challenge to these models. Combining observational and modeling expertise will extend our knowledge of the relationship between these different phenomena and the underlying physical processes, leading to improved models and scientific understanding and more-reliable space-weather forecasting. The current paper summarizes the efforts and progress achieved in recent years, identifies open questions, and gives an outlook for the next 5–10 years. It acts as basis for updating the existing COSPAR roadmap by Schrijver et al. (2015), as well as providing a useful and practical guide for peer-users and the next generation of space weather scientists.

Space weather↗