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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Graph-based Compact Modeling (GCM) of CMOS transistors for efficient parameter extraction: A machine learning approach

Parameter extraction of compact transistor models is an expensive process, heavily relying on engineering knowledge and experience. To automate such a process, we propose a novel approach, Graph-based Compact Model (GCM), that integrates physical modeling and data-driven learning. GCM utilizes Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to establish the model structure, while retaining the physicality in compact models. Here, we implement our GCM in Verilog-A to support circuit simulations. As demonstrated with an academic 7 nm FinFET PDK, the new approach automatically generates a GCM model within a minute, and achieves excellent accuracy and efficiency in SPICE.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2011

Modeling the Height of Young Forests Regenerating from Recent Disturbances in Mississippi using Landsat and ICESat data

Many forestry and earth science applications require spatially detailed forest height data sets. Among the various remote sensing technologies, lidar offers the most potential for obtaining reliable height measurement. However, existing and planned spaceborne lidar systems do not have the capability to produce spatially contiguous, fine resolution forest height maps over large areas. This paper describes a Landsat-lidar fusion approach for modeling the height of young forests by integrating historical Landsat observations with lidar data acquired by the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) instrument onboard the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation (ICESat) satellite. In this approach, "young" forests refer to forests reestablished following recent disturbances mapped using Landsat time-series stacks (LTSS) and a vegetation change tracker (VCT) algorithm. The GLAS lidar data is used to retrieve forest height at sample locations represented by the footprints of the lidar data. These samples are used to establish relationships between lidar-based forest height measurements and LTSS-VCT disturbance products. The height of "young" forest is then mapped based on the derived relationships and the LTSS-VCT disturbance products. This approach was developed and tested over the state of Mississippi. Of the various models evaluated, a regression tree model predicting forest height from age since disturbance and three cumulative indices produced by the LTSS-VCT method yielded the lowest cross validation error. The R(exp 2) and root mean square difference (RMSD) between predicted and GLAS-based height measurements were 0.91 and 1.97 m, respectively. Predictions of this model had much higher errors than indicated by cross validation analysis when evaluated using field plot data collected through the Forest Inventory and Analysis Program of USDA Forest Service. Much of these errors were due to a lack of separation between stand clearing and non-stand clearing disturbances in current LTSS-VCT products and difficulty in deriving reliable forest height measurements using GLAS samples when terrain relief was present within their footprints. In addition, a systematic underestimation of about 5 m by the developed model was also observed, half of which could be explained by forest growth that occurred between field measurement year and model target year. The remaining difference suggests that tree height measurements derived using waveform lidar data could be significantly underestimated, especially for young pine forests. Options for improving the height modeling approach developed in this study were discussed.

Li, Ainong↗
DOE OSTI2023

Natural Gas Community of the Future (Final Report)

Nicor Gas, a subsidiary of Southern Company Gas and its parent company Southern Company, is developing the concept of the Carbon-neutral, Affordable, Resilient, and Equitable Community ("CARE Community") to address the challenges of accessibility and affordability of grid-interactive efficient buildings in historically disadvantaged communities. The CARE Community is a new construction net-zero energy and carbon neutral residential neighborhood consisting of 50 homes with electricity and natural gas services in South Suburban Chicago, built as low-income affordable housing. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is assisting Southern Company to explore how energy efficiency, renewable technologies, and the reliability and resilience of natural gas can be combined and optimized in an islandable energy system as part of a broader effort to understand the role natural gas plays in future communities integrated with renewable energy and improved energy efficiency. The CARE Community will demonstrate how energy efficiency, distributed energy resources (DERs), and advanced controls can be combined with existing natural gas infrastructure to serve historically disadvantaged communities in a cold climate with low energy cost for affordable housing programs and enhanced resilience to withstand extreme weather. Homes will be a part of an islandable energy system, integrating multiple DER technologies such as solar panels, natural gas fuel cells, reciprocating natural gas engines, and battery storage. The CARE Community will provide a replicable template that affordable housing developers and energy companies can adopt throughout the United States. In this report, we present the design and modeling of the community and potential approaches for integrating DERs. We analyze and discuss annual simulations under normal operating conditions and week-long simulations under electric power grid outage conditions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
NASA NTRS2024

Improving the Fire Weather Index System for Peatlands Using Peat-Specific Hydrological Input Data

The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, even though originally developed and calibrated for an upland Jack pine forest, is used globally to estimate fire danger for any fire environment. However, for some environments, such as peatlands, the applicability of the FWI in its current form, is often questioned. In this study, we replaced the original moisture codes of the FWI with hydrological estimates resulting from the assimilation of satellite-based L-band passive microwave observations into a peatland-specific land surface model. In a conservative approach that maintains the integrity of the original FWI structure, the distributions of the hydrological estimates were first matched to those of the corresponding original moisture codes before replacement. The resulting adapted FWI, hereafter called FWIpeat, was evaluated using satellite-based information on fire presence over boreal peatlands from 2010 through 2018. Adapting the FWI with model- and satellite-based hydrological information was found to be beneficial in estimating fire danger, especially when replacing the deeper moisture codes of the FWI. For late-season fires, further adaptations of the fine fuel moisture code show even more improvement due to the fact that late-season fires are more hydrologically driven. The proposed FWIpeat should enable improved monitoring of fire risk in boreal peatlands.

Canadian Fire Weather Index↗
DOE OSTI2026

AI-Driven Frameworks for Characterizing Urban Energy Systems

We develop AI-driven frameworks to characterize urban energy systems with the goal of transforming planning by reducing the labor of model generation, scaling scenario exploration, and improving accuracy for localized analysis. The approach integrates top-down and bottom-up data to train different AI models that predict missing information and generate inputs and targeted scenarios for district-scale models. The result is a scalable framework that provides actionable insights for reliable and efficient planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1995

Integrating Reliability Analysis with a Performance Tool

A large number of commercial simulation tools support performance oriented studies of complex computer and communication systems. Reliability of these systems, when desired, must be obtained by remodeling the system in a different tool. This has obvious drawbacks: (1) substantial extra effort is required to create the reliability model; (2) through modeling error the reliability model may not reflect precisely the same system as the performance model; (3) as the performance model evolves one must continuously reevaluate the validity of assumptions made in that model. In this paper we describe an approach, and a tool that implements this approach, for integrating a reliability analysis engine into a production quality simulation based performance modeling tool, and for modeling within such an integrated tool. The integrated tool allows one to use the same modeling formalisms to conduct both performance and reliability studies. We describe how the reliability analysis engine is integrated into the performance tool, describe the extensions made to the performance tool to support the reliability analysis, and consider the tool's performance.

Nicol, David M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning-guided design of direct methanol fuel cells with a platinum group metal-free cathode

Direct methanol fuel cells (DMFCs) offer a promising solution for clean electricity generation, particularly in small electronics and remote auxiliary power units. However, optimizing their efficiency and performance is challenging due to the complex interactions between various factors. Here, we present a novel approach that integrates experiments with machine learning to model and predict the performance of these fuel cells using atomically dispersed platinum group metal (PGM)-free catalysts at the cathode. Further, our machine learning models, trained on diverse input parameters, allow for the comprehensive optimization of DMFC performance prior to fabrication and testing. Through extensive experimental validation, we demonstrate that this data-driven approach accurately predicts key performance metrics, such as maximum power output and polarization curves. By combining our models with interpretable game-theory methods, we provide deep insights into the factors governing fuel cell performance, ultimately paving the way for the design of scalable and efficient DMFC technologies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computationally efficient subglacial drainage modelling using Gaussian process emulators: GlaDS-GP v1.0

Subglacial drainage models represent water flow at the ice–bed interface through coupled distributed and channelized systems to determine water pressure, discharge, and drainage system geometry. While they are used to understand processes such as the relationship between surface melt and ice flow, the number of uncertain model parameters and the computational cost of running models makes it difficult to adequately explore the high-dimensional parameter space and evaluate uncertainty in model predictions. Here, we develop Gaussian process (GP) emulators that make fast predictions with associated uncertainty of subglacial drainage model outputs. Using a truncated principal component (PC) basis representation, we construct a GP emulator for diurnally averaged subglacial water pressure. We also explore emulation of scalar variables describing drainage efficiency and configuration. We train the emulators using ensembles of up to 512 simulations varying eight parameters of the Glacier Drainage System (GlaDS) model on a synthetic domain intended to represent an ice-sheet margin. The emulators make predictions ∼ 1000 times faster than GlaDS simulations, with errors <3 % for the water pressure field and ∼ 5 %–9 % for drainage efficiency and configuration. We apply the emulators to explore the eight-dimensional parameter space by computing variance-based parameter sensitivity indices, finding that three parameters (ice flow coefficient, bed bump aspect ratio, and the subglacial cavity system conductivity) explain 90 % of the variance in modelled water pressure in response to parameter changes. The GP emulator approach described here is well suited to integrating observational data with models to make calibrated, credible predictions of subglacial drainage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

Results Oriented Benchmarking: The Evolution of Benchmarking at NASA from Competitive Comparisons to World Class Space Partnerships

Informal benchmarking using personal or professional networks has taken place for many years at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) recognized early on, the need to formalize the benchmarking process for better utilization of resources and improved benchmarking performance. The need to compete in a faster, better, cheaper environment has been the catalyst for formalizing these efforts. A pioneering benchmarking consortium was chartered at KSC in January 1994. The consortium known as the Kennedy Benchmarking Clearinghouse (KBC), is a collaborative effort of NASA and all major KSC contractors. The charter of this consortium is to facilitate effective benchmarking, and leverage the resulting quality improvements across KSC. The KBC acts as a resource with experienced facilitators and a proven process. One of the initial actions of the KBC was to develop a holistic methodology for Center-wide benchmarking. This approach to Benchmarking integrates the best features of proven benchmarking models (i.e., Camp, Spendolini, Watson, and Balm). This cost-effective alternative to conventional Benchmarking approaches has provided a foundation for consistent benchmarking at KSC through the development of common terminology, tools, and techniques. Through these efforts a foundation and infrastructure has been built which allows short duration benchmarking studies yielding results gleaned from world class partners that can be readily implemented. The KBC has been recognized with the Silver Medal Award (in the applied research category) from the International Benchmarking Clearinghouse.

Bell, Michael A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning-assisted profiling of a kinked ladder polymer structure using scattering

Ladder polymers consisting of fused rings in the backbone have very limited conformational freedom, which results in very different properties from traditional linear polymers. However, accurately determining their size and chain conformations from solution scattering remains a challenge. Their chain conformations of kinked ladder polymers are largely governed by the structures and relative orientations or configurations of the repeat units, unlike conventional polymer chains whose bending angles between repeat units follow a unimodal Gaussian distribution. Meanwhile, traditional scattering models for polymer chains do not account for these unique structural features. This work introduces a novel approach that integrates machine learning with Monte Carlo simulations to construct a model that can describe the geometry of a type of kinked CANAL ladder polymers. We first develop a Monte Carlo simulation model for sampling the configuration space of CANAL ladder polymers, where each repeat unit is modeled as a biaxial segment. Then, we establish a machine learning-assisted scattering analysis framework based on Gaussian Process Regression. Finally, we conduct small-angle neutron scattering experiments on a CANAL ladder polymer solution to apply our approach. Our method uncovers structural features of such ladder polymers that conventional methods fail to capture.

Ding, Lijie [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗
NASA NTRS2019

Prognostics and Health Monitoring in Li-Ion Batteries and Capacitors Using Physics-Based Modeling Approach

In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem of the lifetime of Li-ion batteries, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the battery pack. To be able to accurately predict the future state of any system, one must possess knowledge of its current and future operations. Using derived models of the current and future system behavior, a model-based prognostics approach can be implemented as a solution to the prediction problem. As more and more autonomous electric vehicles progressively emerge in our daily life, a very critical challenge lies in accurate prediction of remaining useful life of the systems/subsystems. Batteries, power electronics conditioning systems, and motors are integrated to form the powertrain in electric vehicles; one of the most critical systems. In the case of electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is critical for safety, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastropheThis presentation covers a physics-based modeling approach implemented for case studies in capacitor and battery prognostics which are an integral part of an electrical powertrain system. The general approach of model-based prognostics will be examined as a potential solution for safety critical problems related to battery state of charge and state of health.

Physics based modeling↗
NASA NTRS2010

Modeling the Effects of Stress: An Approach to Training

Stress is an integral element of the operational conditions experienced by combat medics. The effects of stress can compromise the performance of combat medics who must reach and treat their comrades under often threatening circumstances. Examples of these effects include tunnel vision, loss of motor control, and diminished hearing, which can result in an inability to perceive further danger, satisfactorily treat the casualty, and communicate with others. While many training programs strive to recreate this stress to aid in the experiential learning process, stress inducement may not always be feasible or desired. In addition, live simulations are not always a practical, convenient, and repeatable method of training. Instead, presenting situational training on a personal computer is proposed as an effective training platform in which the effects of stress can be addressed in a different way. We explore the cognitive and motor effects of stress, as well as the benefits of training for mitigating these effects in real life. While many training applications focus on inducing stress in order to "condition" the stress response, the author explores the possibilities of modeling stress to produce a similar effect. Can presenting modeled effects of stress help prepare or inoculate soldiers for stressful situations in which they must perform at a high level? This paper investigates feasibility of modeling stress and describes the preliminary design considerations of a combat medic training system that utilizes this method of battlefield preparation.

Cuper, Taryn↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enabling Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Physical Security Using EMRALD and MAAP (Presentation)

The optimization of physical security in nuclear power plants requires sophisticated methodologies that integrate operator actions and plant behavior through advanced simulation tools. Idaho National Laboratory has developed the Modeling and Analysis for Safety and Security using the Dynamic EMRALD Framework (MASS-DEF) methodology, an approach that integrates force-on-force simulations, dynamic probabilistic risk assessment, and thermal hydraulics modeling to enhance security planning while reducing costs. A reduced order model for thermal hydraulic simulations performed by the Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) was developed to evaluate reactor core behavior during attack scenarios. MAAP simulations are computationally intensive and must be run in a secure environment, complicating analysis and validation. By pre-computed scenario outcomes for a small number of modified parameters, the reduced order model significantly decreases the computational cost and enables offsite review of the results.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1985

The combined effects of stress and moisture on the structural integrity of composites

A variational approach is used to model the moisture content and distribution profiles which cause swelling in polymers and composites which are used as aircraft structural components. The moisture intrusion stems from humidity, which makes the problem one of diffusion of mass from the environment into a semiinfinite plate with a given diffusion coefficient and thickness. Lagrangian, ordinary differential equations are defined for the mass diffusion, including driving force, mass potential and volume dissipation expressions. Account is taken of the effects of stress on diffusivity, including the dilatational stress caused by inhomogeneous swelling of the material. It is noted that material near the top and bottom of a part undergoes the most swelling, and the evolution of moisture diffusion in the materials is traced. Finally, experimental data are used to define differential equations for predicting the final moisture distribution within the material.

Hiel, C.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Phase diagram of magnetic shape memory alloy Ni 50 Mn $50–x$ In $x$ , 0 < $x$ , 25 from first principles, via spin cluster expansion and phonon vibrational entropies

The metamagnetic shape memory Heusler alloy Ni 50 Mn $50–x$ In $x$ exhibits a rich phase diagram featuring competing magnetic states, coupled magnetic–structural phase transitions, and strong compositional sensitivity. Existing first-principles approaches struggletocapturetheintertwinedchemical, magnetic, andvibrationaleffectsinthesealloys, necessitating a more integrated modeling framework. We develop a spin cluster expansion (spin-CE) framework augmented by a quasi-harmonic phonon model to capture both configurational (chemical and magnetic) and vibrational contributions to the free energy of Ni 50 Mn $50–x$ In $x$ over the full compositional range 0 ≤ x ≤25. The spin-CE includes both chemical clusters and composition-dependent Ising spin interactions, with parameters fit to a first-principles density functional theory (DFT) dataset. Using this approach, we predict the complete magnetostructural phase diagram and transformation temperatures of Ni 50 Mn $50–x$ In $x$ across the composition space. We find that vibrational entropy alone is insufficient to reproduce the martensitic transformation in the magnetic shape memory alloy regime, highlighting the essential role of magnetism. Incorporating both magnetic and vibrational contributions allows us to reproduce all experimentally known phases, including the disappearance of the stable martensite phase at a critical In concentration and the Curie temperature of the austenite phase. The method also captures the transition with increasing In in martensite from antiferromagnetic to ferromagnetic order and predicts re-entrant ferromagnetism, though the latter occurs at higher In content than reported experimentally. We discuss possible sources of this discrepancy and highlight the broader applicability of the method to other magnetostructurally complex materials, where it may offer mechanistic insight and predictive design capabilities.

Cluster expansion↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling and Calibration of Supplier Selection Problem in Freight Agent-Based Simulations

Freight transportation modeling often struggles with data limitations, especially in accurately representing complex supplier selection processes and their impact on network flows. This research addresses this critical gap by developing a large-scale, calibrated agent-based model for supplier selection, complemented by a probabilistic heuristic for international shipments. Our approach integrates trade relationships between industry sectors, transportation costs, and a supplier-rating model adapted from existing literature. The model’s core objective is to minimize the discrepancy between modeled and observed commodity flows while ensuring a close match to regional shipping distance distributions. Implemented and tested across four major U.S. metropolitan areas—Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas–Fort Worth, and Los Angeles—the model demonstrates high fidelity in replicating observed freight patterns. Key findings reveal consistent alignment with national shipping distance trends and highlight significant spatial variations in commodity trade assignments and demand across the study regions. This behaviorally informed and transport-sensitive framework is designed to approximate real-world decision making, providing a robust tool for policymakers and planners to evaluate targeted interventions, assess infrastructure investments, and enhance supply chain resilience in the face of disruptions.

Ismael, Abdelrahman (ORCID:0000000303712110)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Autonomous Inversion of In Situ Deformation Measurement Data for Injection-Induced Stress Change

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is likely to play a key part of the global effort to dramatically reduce CO2 emissions and perhaps even reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations through carbon negative operations. A critical part of effort to commercialize and widely deploy this technology is developing the capability to rapidly assimilate real-time monitoring data into a form that will enable site operators to make decisions to manage the safe and efficient operations. Two of the risks associate with GCS are the risk of inducing fractures in the sealing formations that can create leakage pathways and the risk of inducing earthquakes of sufficient magnitude to cause public concern, property damage, or safety risks. To properly manage these risks the site operator needs to know the initial state of stress, the change in stress induced by injection, and the relationship between operational parameters such as injection rate and pressure and the change in stress. Current methods of estimating the change in stress require choosing the type of constitutive model and the model parameters based on core, log, and geophysical data during the characterization phase, with little feedback from operational observations to validate or refine these choices. These characterization methods interrogate the geologic formations using length scales, loading rates or magnitudes that are quite different from those encountered by the actual storage system. It is shown that errors in the assumed constitutive response, even when informed by laboratory tests on core samples, are likely to be common, large, and underestimate the magnitude of stress change caused by injection. Recent advances in borehole-based strain instruments and borehole and surface-based tilt and displacement instruments have now enabled monitoring of the deformation of the storage system throughout its operational lifespan. This data can enable validation and refinement of the knowledge of the geomechanical properties and state of the system, but brings with it a challenge to transform the raw data into actionable knowledge. We demonstrate a method that uses automatic differentiation and a finite-element based geomechanical model perform a gradient-based deterministic inversion of geomechanical monitoring data. This approach allows autonomous integration of the instrument data without the need for time consuming manual interpretation and selection of updated model parameters. Furthermore, only isotropic linear elasticity is considered in this paper, the approach presented is very flexible as to what type of geomechanical constitutive response can be used. The approach is easily adaptable to nonlinear physics-based constitutive models to account for common rock behaviors such as creep and plasticity. The approach also enables training of machine learning-based constitutive models by allowing back propagation of errors through the finite element calculations. This enables strongly enforcing known physics, such as conservation of momentum and continuity, while allowing data-driven models to learn the truly unknown physics such as the constitutive or petrophysical responses.

Burghardt, Jeffrey A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

NRAP-Open-IAM: Open Wellbore Component (V.2.0)

The Open Wellbore component of NRAP-Open-IAM is applicable to the calculation of Area of Review at a carbon storage site and fast estimation of dense gas dispersion from multiple continuous CO 2 surface leakage sources for risk assessment. The Open Wellbore Component of NRAP-Open-IAM is a lookup table model based on the drift-flux approach. The National Research Assessment Partnership’s second-generation integrated assessment model, NRAP-Open-IAM, is open-source software written in Python for use in performance and quantitative risk assessment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems. The look-up table for open well leakage is an updated version the previous model which provides finer resolution of reservoir depth and more accurate fluid properties than the previous open well look-up table, especially in calculating the gas (CO 2 -rich) phase properties. The component model input parameters include the reservoir transmissivity, aquifer transmissivity, brine salinity, well radius, and well top and bottom depths. The reservoir transmissivity and brine salinity were set to values consistent with the reservoir component, and the well top and bottom depths varied with location. The possible outputs from the Open Wellbore component are leakage rates of CO 2 and brine to either an aquifer or atmosphere, depending on the depth of the well top. Several python test scripts are presented that demonstrate that the Open Wellbore component works correctly. Use of the open wellbore model in NRAP-Open-IAM may result in a large CO 2 leakage rates, comparable to the leakage rates of CO 2 blow out.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗