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DOE OSTI2026

FAST-1.2.2: A Computer Code for Thermal-Mechanical Nuclear Fuel Analysis under Steady-state and Transients

Fuel Analysis under Steady-state and Transients (FAST) is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)’s computer code that calculates the steady-state and transient response of nuclear reactor fuel rods during long-term in-reactor burnup, anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs), design basis accidents (DBAs), and dry storage conditions. The code calculates the temperature, pressure, and deformation of a fuel rod as functions of time-dependent fuel rod power and coolant boundary conditions. The phenomena modeled by the code include heat conduction through the fuel and other materials, heat transfer from the cladding-to-coolant, cladding elastic and plastic deformation (including creep), fuel-cladding mechanical interaction, fission gas release from the fuel, rod internal pressure, void volume, and cladding oxidation. The code contains necessary material and coolant properties, as well as clad-to-coolant heat transfer correlations, for normal operation through postulated accidents and AOOs for today’s U.S.-based light water reactor (LWR) fuel designs. FAST-1.2.2 also contains preliminary materials and models for new LWR fuel concepts, such as accident tolerant fuel (ATF), and non-LWR fuel concepts such as metallic fuels for sodium fast reactors (SFRs). FAST has been developed for use on Windows and Linux operating systems. This document describes FAST-1.2.2 and is one of a series of documents on the code; the other documents detail the material properties used by FAST as well as its integral assessment to experiments and commercial data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of water scarcity on agricultural production and electricity generation in the Middle East and North Africa

Incorporating the interdependencies between water, energy and food (WEF) within an integrated approach of planning and management could help nations worldwide to address sustainability concerns. This is a topic of great importance for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where water is a very limited resource. In this study, we develop an analytical framework to analyze the water-energy-food nexus in the MENA region to inform the formulation of integrated strategies for water, energy and food activities. Our approach is based on an integrated assessment model for the MENA region, which explicitly represents WEF sectors within an economic framework, in tandem with a set of relevant scenarios addressing three key dimensions (socioeconomics, climate and water-management). Using this framework, our study analyzes the current and projected status of water resources in the region, and the potential implications for the agriculture and electricity sectors. Our scenarios demonstrate that water scarcity worsens by the end of the 21st century in most MENA countries, mostly due to growing demands. The impacts of growing scarcity on agriculture are significant, with production projected to drop by 60 percent by 2050 in some countries. On the other hand, and to a lesser extent, water-saving technologies and fuel-switching in the power sector play a key role in mitigating the effects of water scarcity on electricity generation in some parts of the MENA region. Our analysis then underscores the need to reduce the dependence of MENA’s agricultural and energy sectors on water, and transition to renewable energies to reduce water scarcity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Grand Challenges of Hydrologic Modeling for Food-Energy-Water Nexus Security in High Mountain Asia

Climate-influenced changes in hydrology affect water-food-energy security that may impact up to two billion people downstream of the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. Changes in water supply affect energy, industry, transportation, and ecosystems (agriculture, fisheries) and as a result, also affect the region's social, environmental, and economic fabrics. Sustaining the highly interconnected food-energy-water nexus (FEWN) will be a fundamental and increasing challenge under a changing climate regime. High variability in topography and distribution of glaciated and snow-covered areas in the HMA region, and scarcity of high resolution (in-situ) data make it difficult to model and project climate change impacts on individual watersheds. We lack basic understanding of the spatial and temporal variations in climate, surface impurities in snow and ice such as black carbon and dust that alter surface albedo, and glacier mass balance and dynamics. These knowledge gaps create challenges in predicting where and when the impact of changes in river flow will be the most significant economically and ecologically. In response to these challenges, the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) established the High Mountain Asia Team (HiMAT) in 2016 to conduct research to address knowledge gaps. This paper summarizes some of the advances HiMAT made over the past 5 years, highlights the scientific challenges in improving our understanding of the hydrology of the HMA region, and introduces an integrated assessment framework to assess the impacts of climate changes on the FEWN for the HMA region. The framework, developed under a NASA HMA project, links climate models, hydrology, hydropower, fish biology, and economic analysis. The framework could be applied to develop scientific understanding of spatio-temporal variability in water availability and the resultant downstream impacts on the FEWN to support water resource management under a changing climate regime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Air Pollutant Emissions in the Provincial Level Road Transportation Sector in Korea: A Case Study of the Zero-Emission Vehicle Subsidy

South Korea has been suffering from high PM2.5 pollution. Previous studies have contributed to establishing PM2.5 mitigation policies but have not considered provincial features and sector-interactions. In that sense, the integrated assessment model (IAM) could complement the shortcomings of previous studies. IAM, capable of analyzing PM2.5 pollution levels at the provincial level in Korea, however, has not been developed yet. Hence, this study (i) expands on IAM which can represent provincial-level spatial resolution in Korea (GCAM-Korea) with air pollutant emissions modeling which focuses on the road transportation sector and (ii) examines the zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) subsidy policy’s effects on PM2.5 mitigation using the expanded GCAM-Korea. Simulation results show that PM2.5 emissions decrease by 0.6–4.1% compared to the baseline, and the Seoul metropolitan area contributes 38–44% to the overall PM2.5 emission reductions. As the ZEVs subsidy is weighted towards the light-duty vehicle 4-wheels (LDV4W) sector, various spillover effects are found: ZEVs’ share rises intensively in the LDV4W sector leading to an increase in its service costs, and at the same time, driving bus service costs to become relatively cheaper. This, in turn, drives an increase in bus service demand and emissions discharge. Furthermore, this type of impact of the ZEVs subsidy policy does not reduce internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) in freight trucks, although diesel freight trucks are a major contributor to PM2.5 emissions and also to NOx.

Roh, Minyoung↗

DOE OSTI2021

Canadian Oil Sands Extraction and Upgrading: A Synthesis of the Data on Energy Consumption, CO 2 Emissions, and Supply Costs

As Canadian crude bitumen production from oil sands has increased in recent decades, the nation’s oil and gas industry has become a significant contributor to national greenhouse gas emissions. Canada has developed carbon emission reduction targets to meet its Nationally Determined Contributions and Mid-Century Strategy goals. A detailed profile of energy consumption pathways in the oil sands industry is necessary to identify potential areas of improvement and to monitor progress toward meeting emissions reduction targets. Much of the existing literature for oil sands modeling provides input assumptions with different technological boundaries. For a set of oil sands extraction and upgrading technologies, this study first reviews the literature and then quantifies energy input requirements, CO 2 emissions, and operating costs for a set of consistent technological boundaries and energy units. Summary results refer to requirements and costs at the production facility, excluding transportation and blending costs. An energy system diagram of oil sands production that matches these boundaries is provided, which can be used by integrated assessment models, oil sands companies, and government ministries to evaluate the present and future energy consumption and emissions pathways of the oil sands industry.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2020

Apparent dust size discrepancy in aerosol reanalysis in north African dust after long-range transport

North African dust reaches the southeastern United States every summer. Size-resolved dust mass measurements taken in Miami, Florida, indicate that more than one-half of the surface dust mass concentrations reside in particles with geometric diameters less than 2.1 µm, while vertical profiles of micropulse lidar depolarization ratios show dust reaching above 4 km during pronounced events. These observations are compared to the representation of dust in the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) aerosol reanalysis and closely related Goddard Earth Observing System model version 5 (GEOS-5) Forward Processing (FP) aerosol product, both of which assimilate satellite-derived aerosol optical depths using a similar protocol and inputs. These capture the day-to-day variability in aerosol optical depth well, in a comparison to an independent sun-photometer-derived aerosol optical depth dataset. Most of the modeled dust mass resides in diameters between 2 and 6 µm, in contrast to the measurements. Model-specified mass extinction efficiencies equate light extinction with approximately 3 times as much aerosol mass, in this size range, compared to the measured dust sizes. GEOS-5 FP surface-layer sea salt mass concentrations greatly exceed observed values, despite realistic winds and relative humidities. In combination, these observations help explain why, despite realistic total aerosol optical depths, (1) free-tropospheric model volume extinction coefficients are lower than those retrieved from the micro-pulse lidar, suggesting too-low model dust loadings in the free troposphere, and (2) model dust mass concentrations near the surface can be higher than those measured. The modeled vertical distribution of dust, when captured, is reasonable. Large, aspherical particles exceeding the modeled dust sizes are also occasionally present, but dust particles with diameters exceeding 10 µm contribute little to the measured total dust mass concentrations after such long-range transport. Remaining uncertainties warrant a further integrated assessment to confirm this study's interpretations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO 2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO 2 emissions. By 2150, CO 2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO 2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO 2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66% for the present day to roughly 68% to 85% by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (~5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5°C warming on the other.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The GGCMI Phase 2 emulators: global gridded crop model responses to changes in CO 2 , temperature, water, and nitrogen (version 1.0)

Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2. The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment is designed with the explicit goal of producing a structured training dataset for emulator development that samples across four dimensions relevant to crop yields: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, temperature, water supply, and nitrogen inputs (CTWN). Simulations are run under two different adaptation assumptions: that growing seasons shorten in warmer climates, and that cultivar choice allows growing seasons to remain fixed. The dataset allows emulating the climatological-mean yield response of all models with a simple polynomial in mean growing-season values. Climatological-mean yields are a central metric in climate change impact analysis; we show here that they can be captured without relying on interannual variations. In general, emulation errors are negligible relative to differences across crop models or even across climate model scenarios; errors become significant only in some marginal lands where crops are not currently grown. We demonstrate that the resulting GGCMI emulators can reproduce yields under realistic future climate simulations, even though the GGCMI Phase 2 dataset is constructed with uniform CTWN offsets, suggesting that the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are small relative to those of changing means. The resulting emulators therefore capture relevant crop model responses in a lightweight, computationally tractable form, providing a tool that can facilitate model comparison, diagnosis of interacting factors affecting yields, and integrated assessment of climate impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6

Abstract. Human land use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth's surface, with consequences for climate and other ecosystem services. In the future, land use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community has developed the next generation of advanced Earth system models (ESMs) to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g., land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon–climate system. A new set of historical data based on the History of the Global Environment database (HYDE), and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015–2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, is required as input for these models. With most ESM simulations for CMIP6 now completed, it is important to document the land use patterns used by those simulations. Here we present results from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, which smoothly connects updated historical reconstructions of land use with eight new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land use patterns, underlying land use transitions, key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually, while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions and preserving changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds on a similar effort from CMIP5 and is now provided at higher resolution (0.25∘×0.25∘) over a longer time domain (850–2100, with extensions to 2300) with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management practices) using more input datasets (including Landsat remote sensing data) and updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation); it is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain > 50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5 and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land use on the global carbon–climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf

Abstract. Permafrost currently stores more than a fourth of global soil carbon. A warming climate makes this carbon increasingly vulnerable to decomposition and release into the atmosphere in the form of greenhouse gases. The resulting climate feedback can be estimated using land surface models, but the high complexity and computational cost of these models make it challenging to use them for estimating uncertainty, exploring novel scenarios, and coupling with other models. We have added a representation of permafrost to the simple, open-source global carbon–climate model Hector, calibrated to be consistent with both historical data and 21st century Earth system model projections of permafrost thaw. We include permafrost as a separate land carbon pool that becomes available for decomposition into both methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) once thawed; the thaw rate is controlled by region-specific air temperature increases from a preindustrial baseline. We found that by 2100 thawed permafrost carbon emissions increased Hector’s atmospheric CO2 concentration by 5 %–7 % and the atmospheric CH4 concentration by 7 %–12 %, depending on the future scenario, resulting in 0.2–0.25 ∘C of additional warming over the 21st century. The fraction of thawed permafrost carbon available for decomposition was the most significant parameter controlling the end-of-century temperature change in the model, explaining around 70 % of the temperature variance, and was distantly followed by the initial stock of permafrost carbon, which contributed to about 10 % of the temperature variance. The addition of permafrost in Hector provides a basis for the exploration of a suite of science questions, as Hector can be cheaply run over a wide range of parameter values to explore uncertainty and can be easily coupled with integrated assessment and other human system models to explore the economic consequences of warming from this feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7

Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized model experiments and climate projections of different emissions scenarios. We argue that although this approach was practical to allow parallel development of Earth system model simulations and detailed socioeconomic futures, carbon cycle uncertainty as represented by diverse, process-resolving Earth system models (ESMs) is not manifested in the scenario outcomes, thus omitting a dominant source of uncertainty in meeting the Paris Agreement. Mitigation policy is defined in terms of human activity (including emissions), with strategies varying in their timing of net-zero emissions, the balance of mitigation effort between short-lived and long-lived climate forcers, their reliance on land use strategy, and the extent and timing of carbon removals. To explore the response to these drivers, ESMs need to explicitly represent complete cycles of major GHGs, including natural processes and anthropogenic influences. Carbon removal and sequestration strategies, which rely on proposed human management of natural systems, are currently calculated in integrated assessment models (IAMs) during scenario development with only the net carbon emissions passed to the ESM. However, proper accounting of the coupled system impacts of and feedback on such interventions requires explicit process representation in ESMs to build self-consistent physical representations of their potential effectiveness and risks under climate change. We propose that CMIP7 efforts prioritize simulations driven by CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and projected deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies, as well as land use and management, using the process resolution allowed by state-of-the-art ESMs to resolve carbon–climate feedbacks. Post-CMIP7 ambitions should aim to incorporate modeling of non-CO2 GHGs (in particular, sources and sinks of methane and nitrous oxide) and process-based representation of carbon removal options. These developments will allow three primary benefits: (1) resources to be allocated to policy-relevant climate projections and better real-time information related to the detectability and verification of emissions reductions and their relationship to expected near-term climate impacts, (2) scenario modeling of the range of possible future climate states including Earth system processes and feedbacks that are increasingly well-represented in ESMs, and (3) optimal utilization of the strengths of ESMs in the wider context of climate modeling infrastructure (which includes simple climate models, machine learning approaches and kilometer-scale climate models).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1981

Design and fabrication of a stringer stiffened discrete-tube actively cooled panel for a hypersonic aircraft

A 0.61 x 1.22 m (2 x 4 ft) test panel was fabricated and delivered to the Langley Research Center for assessment of the thermal and structural features of the optimized panel design. The panel concept incorporated an aluminum alloy surface panel actively cooled by a network of discrete, parallel, redundant, counterflow passage interconnected with appropriate manifolding, and assembled by adhesive bonding. The cooled skin was stiffened with a mechanically fastened conventional substructure of stringers and frames. A 40 water/60 glycol solution was the coolant. Low pressure leak testing, radiography, holography and infrared scanning were applied at various stages of fabrication to assess integrity and uniformity. By nondestructively inspecting selected specimens which were subsequently tested to destruction, it was possible to refine inspection standards as applied to this cooled panel design.

Anthony, F. M.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Promising quantitative nondestructive evaluation techniques for composite materials

Some recent results in the area of the ultrasonic, acoustic emission, thermographic, and acousto-ultrasonic NDE of composites are reviewed. In particular, attention is given to the progress in the use of ultrasonic attenuation, acoustic emission (parameter) delay, liquid-crystal thermography, and the stress wave factor in structural integrity monitoring of composite materials. The importance of NDE flaw significance characterizations is emphasized since such characterizations can directly indicate the appropriate NDE technique sensitivity requirements. The role of the NDE of flawed composites with and without overt defects in establishing quantitative accept/reject criteria for structural integrity assessment is discussed.

Williams, J. H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1987

The acousto-ultrasonic approach

The nature and underlying rationale of the acousto-ultrasonic approach is reviewed, needed advanced signal analysis and evaluation methods suggested, and application potentials discussed. Acousto-ultrasonics is an NDE technique combining aspects of acoustic emission methodology with ultrasonic simulation of stress waves. This approach uses analysis of simulated stress waves for detecting and mapping variations of mechanical properties. Unlike most NDE, acousto-ultrasonics is less concerned with flaw detection than with the assessment of the collective effects of various flaws and material anomalies. Acousto-ultrasonics has been applied chiefly to laminated and filament-wound fiber reinforced composites. It has been used to assess the significant strength and toughness reducing effects that can be wrought by combinations of essentially minor flaws and diffuse flaw populations. Acousto-ultrasonics assesses integrated defect states and the resultant variations in properties such as tensile, shear, and flexural strengths and fracture resistance. Matrix cure state, porosity, fiber orientation, fiber volume fraction, fiber-matrix bonding, and interlaminar bond quality are underlying factors.

Vary, Alex↗

NASA NTRS1988

The acousto-ultrasonic approach

Vary, Alex↗

NASA NTRS1991

Method for optimal configuration of an ECLSS on the Space Station Freedom

The establishment of a permanently manned Space Station represents a substantial challenge in the design of a life support system, specifically in the need to supply a large crew for missions of extended duration. The Space Station will evolve by time phased modular increments delivered and supplied by the Space Shuttle and other advanced launch systems. With the addition of each subsequent phase or alteration of mission duties, the requirements of the Station may differ from previous phases of development. With the addition of future crews and pressurized volume throughout the lifetime of the Space Station, change-out of individual subsystems may be necessary in order to meet the performance, safety, and reliability levels required from the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS). The analysis of this system growth demands the capability for advanced, integrated assessment techniques so that the unique mission drivers during each phase and mission scenario may be identified and evaluated. In order to determine the impacts of the interdependency between the ECLSS, the crew, the various user experiments, and the other distributed systems, consideration must be given to all Space Station resources and requirements during the initial and subsequent evolution phase. Therefore, it is necessary for analysis efforts to study the long term effects of established designs. These studies must quantify the optimal degree of loop closure within the capabilities of existing and future technologies including any resulting maintenance and logistics requirements. In addition, the necessity for subsystem retrofit during the lifetime of the Station must be examined. The source of system requirements due to long term exposure to the microgravity environment is illustrated, the criticality of the ECLSS functions is reviewed, and a method is described to develop an optimal design during each configuration based on the cross-consumption of Station resources. A comparison utilizing this procedure is discussed.

Gould, Marston J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Thermal QNDE detection of airframe disbonds

Thermographic characterization of aircraft bonded lap joints offers a quick noncontacting technique to acquire information for structural integrity assessment. This paper discusses recent research to optimize the technique and determine the limits of its applicability. The temperature of the outer surface of the lap joint is increased by the application of heat flux from either flash or quartz lamp heaters. The time dependence of the surface temperature of the lap joint is imaged radiometrically. Measurements are presented for a range of specimens, ranging from samples fabricated with well characterized disbonds to actual aircraft. A technique for processing these images to enhance the contrast between bonded and disbonded regions of the lap joint is presented. Numerical models of the technique simulate the procedure. These simulations provide a cost efficient method for optimizing the technique by varying parameters such as the time for application of heat. These simulations facilitate the definition of parameters difficult to determine experimentally, such as the minimum air gap required for a disbond to be detected. Good agreement between measurements and these simulations is found.

Aging Aircraft↗

NASA NTRS1992

Application of guided acoustic waves to delamination detection

Guided plate waves are able to interact with structural flaws such as delaminations and cracks due to their propagation properties highly sensitive to the thickness change in materials. A technique which employs an acoustic damper to probe the results of this interaction and then to locate flaws in a relatively short period of time is developed. With its technical advantages, this technique shows its potential application to large area structural integrity assessment.

Sun, Keun J.↗