Assessments of Physiology and Cognition in Hybrid-reality Environments (APACHE) - Physical Workload Approximation
Presentation to be given at 2022 ICES conference
Alexander J. Baughman↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Assessing the Robustness of Arctic Sea Ice Bi‐Stability in the Presence of Atmospheric Feedbacks
Abstract Arctic sea‐ice loss is influenced by multiple positive feedbacks, sparking concerns of accelerated loss in the coming years or even a tipping point, where a sea‐ice equilibrium disappears at a given CO 2 value and sea ice rapidly evolves to a new steady state. Such a tipping point would imply a bi‐stability of the Arctic climate—where multiple steady‐state Arctic climates are possible at the same CO 2 value. Previous works have sought to establish the existence of bi‐stability using a range of models, from zero‐dimensional sea ice thermodynamic models to fully coupled global climate models, with conflicting results. Here, we present a new model of the Arctic that includes both sea‐ice thermodynamics and key atmospheric feedbacks in a simple framework. We exploit the model's simplicity to identify physical mechanisms that control the timing and extent of sea‐ice bi‐stability, and the abruptness of ice loss. We show that longwave radiation feedbacks can have a strong influence on Arctic surface climate from atmospheric temperature increases alone, even without major contributions from clear‐sky moisture or convective clouds suggested previously. While winter sea‐ice bi‐stability is robust to changes in uncertain model parameters in this study, summer sea ice is more sensitive. Finally, our model indicates that positive feedbacks may modulate the CO 2 threshold of sea‐ice loss and the width of bi‐stability much more strongly than the abruptness of loss. These results lead to a comprehensive understanding of the conditions that favor Arctic sea‐ice bi‐stability, particularly the role of atmospheric feedbacks, in both future and past climates.
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
Synoptic observations of near surface processes of an insolated ice-dust body under space conditions: The case of KOSI 9 and 10
The recent experiments of the Comet Simulation Project, KOSI 9 and KOSI 10, for the first time yielded synoptic results of physically correlated phenomena near the surface of insolated porous ice dust mixtures (90% H2O, 10% olivine, 0.1% fine dispersed carbon, sample mean density 0.40 +/- 0.001 g/cm(sup 3)) under space conditions. Correlations were observed e.g. between (1) grain size of emitted dust and dust mantle formation; (2) surface avalanches and local surface temperature; and (3) lateral variations of the surface temperature and the thickness of the dust mantle at the end of the experiment. The dynamic surface processes and the observed structural parameters of the dust mantle and the emitted mineral residues are discussed in view of real comets.
Thiel, K.↗
Overview of the MOSAiC expedition—Atmosphere
With the Arctic rapidly changing, the needs to observe, understand, and model the changes are essential. To support these needs, an annual cycle of observations of atmospheric properties, processes, and interactions were made while drifting with the sea ice across the central Arctic during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition from October 2019 to September 2020. An international team designed and implemented the comprehensive program to document and characterize all aspects of the Arctic atmospheric system in unprecedented detail, using a variety of approaches, and across multiple scales. These measurements were coordinated with other observational teams to explore cross-cutting and coupled interactions with the Arctic Ocean, sea ice, and ecosystem through a variety of physical and biogeochemical processes. This overview outlines the breadth and complexity of the atmospheric research program, which was organized into 4 subgroups: atmospheric state, clouds and precipitation, gases and aerosols, and energy budgets. Atmospheric variability over the annual cycle revealed important influences from a persistent large-scale winter circulation pattern, leading to some storms with pressure and winds that were outside the interquartile range of past conditions suggested by long-term reanalysis. Similarly, the MOSAiC location was warmer and wetter in summer than the reanalysis climatology, in part due to its close proximity to the sea ice edge. The comprehensiveness of the observational program for characterizing and analyzing atmospheric phenomena is demonstrated via a winter case study examining air mass transitions and a summer case study examining vertical atmospheric evolution. Overall, the MOSAiC atmospheric program successfully met its objectives and was the most comprehensive atmospheric measurement program to date conducted over the Arctic sea ice. The obtained data will support a broad range of coupled-system scientific research and provide an important foundation for advancing multiscale modeling capabilities in the Arctic.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Radiative properties of visible and subvisible Cirrus: Scattering on hexagonal ice crystals
One of the main objectives of the First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Regional Experiment (FIRE) is to provide a better understanding of the physics of upper level clouds. The focus is on just one specific aspect of cirrus physics, namely on characterizing the radiative properties of single, nonspherical ice particles. The basis for further more extensive studies of the radiative transfer through upper level clouds is provided. Radiation provides a potential mechanism for strong feedback between the divergence of in-cloud radiative flux and the cloud microphysics and ultimately on the dynamics of the cloud. Some aspects of ice cloud microphysics that are relevant to the radiation calculations are described. Next, the Discrete Dipole Approximation (DDA) is introduced and some new results of scattering by irregular crystals are presented. The Anomalous Diffraction Theory (ADT) was adopted to investigate the scattering properties of even larger crystals. In this way the scattering properties of nonspherical particles were determined over a range of particle sizes.
Flatau, Piotr J.↗
Matrix partitioning and EOF/principal component analysis of Antarctic Sea ice brightness temperatures
A field of measured anomalies of some physical variable relative to their time averages, is partitioned in either the space domain or the time domain. Eigenvectors and corresponding principal components of the smaller dimensioned covariance matrices associated with the partitioned data sets are calculated independently, then joined to approximate the eigenstructure of the larger covariance matrix associated with the unpartitioned data set. The accuracy of the approximation (fraction of the total variance in the field) and the magnitudes of the largest eigenvalues from the partitioned covariance matrices together determine the number of local EOF's and principal components to be joined by any particular level. The space-time distribution of Nimbus-5 ESMR sea ice measurement is analyzed.
Murray, C. W., Jr.↗
Sulfur mass loading of the atmosphere from volcanic eruptions: Calibration of the ice core record on basis of sulfate aerosol deposition in polar regions from the 1982 El Chichon eruption
Major volcanic eruptions disperse large quantities of sulfur compound throughout the Earth's atmosphere. The sulfuric acid aerosols resulting from such eruptions are scavenged by snow within the polar regions and appear in polar ice cores as elevated acidity layers. Glacio-chemical studies of ice cores can, thus, provide a record of past volcanism, as well as the means for understanding the fate of volcanic sulfur in the atmosphere. The primary objectives of this project are to study the chemistry and physical properties of volcanic fallout in a Greenland Ice Core in order to evaluate the impact of the volcanic gases on the atmospheric chemistry and the total atmospheric mass of volcanic aerosols emitted by major volcanic eruptions. We propose to compare the ice core record to other atmospheric records performed during the last 10 years to investigate transport and deposition of volcanic materials.
Sigurdsson, Haraldur↗
Nasa Glenn Icing Research Tunnel: 2018 Change in Drop-Sizing Equations Due to Change in Cloud Droplet Probe Sample Area
Although there has been no physical change to the cloud drop diameters in the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT), the IRT cloud calibration team now has an improved understanding of the facility’s drop-sizing instrumentation, which has resulted in a recent change to the drop-sizing equations. Only the calculated values given in the previous calibration report have changed. In 2017, IRT staff found reason to believe that since at least 2014, the sample area for its Cloud Droplet Probe (CDP) (Droplet Measurement Technologies, Inc.) has been closer to 0.289 mm2, rather than the user manual’s suggested value of 0.24 mm2. In September 2017, the probe’s sample area was measured both before and after the probe was realigned, and the end sample area was measured to be 0.248 mm2. Following the probe’s realignment, drop size measurements were made in the IRT using the CDP as well as optical array probes OAP–230X and OAP–230Y (Particle Measurement Systems, Inc.). These measurements suggested that 0.289 mm2 was the more accurate value for historical measurements. When the CDP sample area used for calculations was changed from 0.24 to 0.289 mm2, distributions previously reported to have a median volumetric diameter (MVD) between 30 and 100 μm were instead calculated to have MVD values 10 to 18 percent higher. The analyses that led to these conclusions are reported in this paper, as well as the new drop-sizing equations that have been developed for the corrected measurement values. This report contains updates to drop-sizing data for the IRT’s “normal” operating conditions (MVD < 50 μm) and discusses the effects on the IRT’s “large-drop” conditions (Mod1 nozzles, Pair < 10 psig), but it does not include updates to the drop-sizing equations for those large-drop conditions.
Particle sizing↗
Advancing the Understanding of Cloud Microphysical Processes and Aerosol Indirect Effects in High-Latitude Mixed-Phase Clouds by Linking ARM Measurements with Climate Model Simulations (Final Report)
The key objectives of this project were to advance our understanding of cloud microphysical characteristics and aerosol indirect effects on mixed-phase clouds in high latitudes. To improve the representation of ice and mixed-phase clouds in Earth System Models (ESMs), we propose an integrated observation and modeling study of cloud macro- and microphysical properties, including spatial heterogeneities, mass partitioning between ice crystals and supercooled liquid water, effects of ice nucleating particles (INPs), and efficiency of secondary ice production (SIP), etc. Specifically, we took four main approaches in this project: (1) examining macro- and microphysical properties of ice and mixed-phase clouds based on in-situ and ground-based observations from multiple field campaigns funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, including the Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE), Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC), Ice Nucleating Particle Sources at Oliktok Point (INPOP), ARM West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE), Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS), and Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE); (2) evaluating the DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) simulations based on observations, particularly for ice and mixed-phase cloud microphysical properties; (3) examining the impacts of INPs on ice and mixed-phase clouds. Specifically, a series of comparisons were conducted using observations over the Arctic, Southern Ocean, and Antarctica, including comparisons between the lower and higher southern latitudes as well as comparisons between the northern and southern hemispheres. In addition, aerosol indirect effects from distinct sources of dust particles were examined; and (4) investigating the impacts of SIP. Ultimately, these results helped to improve cloud microphysics and aerosol-cloud interaction parameterizations in the E3SM model. Overall, the project provided improved understanding regarding various factors, including thermodynamic, dynamic, and aerosol conditions, on the micro- and macrophysical properties of ice and mixed-phase clouds in the high latitudes. Resulting analysis helped to provide an improved physical basis for refining the current cloud microphysics parameterizations related to ice and mixed-phase clouds in E3SM.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Continued evolution of Europa subsurface exploration technologies
The Galileo results convincingly indicate that Europa has a deep salty ocean covered by a shell of water ice a few tens of kilometers thick; this physical description gives rise to a host of thoughtful speculation as to the nature of the ocean, its seafloor, and the likelihood of microbial life within it. We argue that this situation points to the high desirability of a series of in-situ missions to examine the ice and, ultimately, the ocean.
subglacial Europa↗
Continuous observations of the surface energy budget and meteorology over the Arctic sea ice during MOSAiC
Abstract The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) was a yearlong expedition supported by the icebreaker R/V Polarstern , following the Transpolar Drift from October 2019 to October 2020. The campaign documented an annual cycle of physical, biological, and chemical processes impacting the atmosphere-ice-ocean system. Of central importance were measurements of the thermodynamic and dynamic evolution of the sea ice. A multi-agency international team led by the University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA-PSL observed meteorology and surface-atmosphere energy exchanges, including radiation; turbulent momentum flux; turbulent latent and sensible heat flux; and snow conductive flux. There were four stations on the ice, a 10 m micrometeorological tower paired with a 23/30 m mast and radiation station and three autonomous Atmospheric Surface Flux Stations. Collectively, the four stations acquired ~928 days of data. This manuscript documents the acquisition and post-processing of those measurements and provides a guide for researchers to access and use the data products.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The Bering Sea ice cover during March 1979: Comparison of surface and satellite data with the Nimbus-7 SMMR
During March 1979, field operations were carried out in the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) of the Bering Sea. The field measurements which included oceanographic, meteorological and sea ice observations were made nearly coincident with a number of Nimbus-7 and Tiros-N satellite observations. The results of a comparison between surface and aircraft observations, and images from the Tiros-N satellite, with ice concentrations derived from the microwave radiances of the Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) are given. Following a brief discussion of the field operations, including a summary of the meteorological conditions during the experiment, the satellite data is described with emphasis on the Nimbus-7 SMMR and the physical basis of the algorithm used to retrieve ice concentrations.
Martin, S.↗
Participation in the GISS EOS Proposal
To model the mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets, Research Assistant Veronique Bugnion developed a snowpack model which embodies a physically based approach to modeling the temperature and density distribution of a snow, firn, and ice mixture. The snowpack model performed satisfactorily in capturing the surface energy balance and melt amounts measured at stations in Greenland and Antarctica. Also a comparison between the predicted extent of the wet snow zone obtained with the model and the same quantity derived from satellite microwave measurements showed excellent agreement. In addition the model's simulated total runoff was close to the best estimates from observations for the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps. Ms. Bugnion and research scientist Andrei Sokolov coupled the snowpack model to the climate submodel of MIT's Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) and integrated forward over the 21st century for a range of climate change scenarios, using forcings from simulations with the IGSM. The changes in mass balance of the ice caps were then translated into changes in sea level. For the scenarios with small to moderate warming, the runoff from Greenland and Antarctica is minimal. For the scenarios with a larger warming, there is a net increase in sea-level of 2-3 cm from Greenland, and a decrease of between 2 and 5 cm from Antarctica. These results show that the net change in sea level which can be expected to follow climatic changes in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, a decrease of 2 to 4 cm or less by the end of the 21st century, is smaller than most previously published estimates.
Stone, Peter H.↗
Ice Supersaturation Variability in Cirrus Clouds: Role of Vertical Wind Speeds and Deposition Coefficients
Abstract Aircraft measurements reveal ice supersaturation statistics in cirrus (ISSs) with broad maxima around ice saturation and pronounced variance. In this study, processes shaping ISSs in midlatitude and tropical upper tropospheric conditions are systematically investigated. Water vapor deposition and sublimation of size‐resolved ice crystal populations are simulated in an air parcel framework. Mesoscale temperature fluctuations (MTFs) due to gravity waves force the temporal evolution of supersaturation. Various levels of background wave forcing and cirrus thickness are distinguished in stochastic ensemble simulations. Kinetic limitations to ice mass growth are brought about by supersaturation‐dependent deposition coefficients that represent efficient and inefficient growth modes as a function of ice crystal size. The simulations identify a wide range of deposition coefficients in cirrus, but most values stay above 0.01 such that kinetic limitations to water uptake remain moderate. Supersaturation quenching times are long, typically 0.5–2 hr. The wave forcing thus causes a remarkably large variability in ISSs and cirrus microphysical properties except in the thickest cirrus, producing ensemble‐mean ISSs in line with in‐situ measurements. ISS variance is controlled by MTFs and increases with decreasing cirrus integral radii. In comparison, the impact of ice crystal growth rates on ISSs is small. These results contribute to efforts directed at identifying and solving issues associated with ice‐supersaturated areas and non‐equilibrium cirrus physics in global models.
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
Emulation With Uncertainty Quantification of Regional Sea‐Level Change Caused by the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Abstract Projecting regional sea‐level change under various climate‐change scenarios typically involves running forward simulations of the Earth's gravitational, rotational and deformational (GRD) response to ice‐mass change, which requires substantial computational cost if applied to probabilistic frameworks requiring thousands to millions of samples. Here we build emulators of regional sea‐level change at 27 coastal locations, due to the GRD effects associated with future Antarctic Ice Sheet mass change over the 21st century. The emulators are evaluated against a numerical sea‐level model applied to an ensemble of ice‐sheet model simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2100. We build a physics‐based emulator using a recent sensitivity kernel approach and compare it to machine learning based emulators (neural network and conditional variational autoencoder methods). In order to quantify uncertainty, we derive well‐calibrated prediction intervals for regional sea‐level change via split‐conformal inference and linear regression, and show that Monte Carlo dropout does not yield well‐calibrated uncertainties in this instance. We also demonstrate substantial gains in computational efficiency using both the physics‐based emulator and neural networks in comparison to the numerical model for the complete regional sea‐level solution. Overall, we find the physics‐based emulator modestly outperforms the machine learning emulators for this problem.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Conference on Cloud Physics, Tucson, Ariz., October 21-24, 1974, Proceedings
Condensation and ice nucleation processes are considered, taking into account measurements of cloud nuclei and aerosol size spectra in the semiarid Southwest, the formation of sulfates and the enhancement of cloud condensation nuclei in clouds, biogenic sources of atmospheric ice nuclei, and the experimental determination of the deposition coefficient of water vapor onto ice. Other topics discussed are related to precipitation growth processes, the role of ice in cloud systems, cloud modeling, measurements in Colorado hailstorms during the national hail research experiment, cloud measurements, and measurement techniques. Attention is also given to cloud electrification, zero-gravity experiments, and the control of cloud development by larger scale motions. Individual items are announced in this issue.
Source record↗
Marine decision aids from space
The article discusses satellite observation of marine environments via microwave sensors and visible/infrared measurements. Specific applications include the monitoring of physical oceanography, weather and climate, coastal processes, ice processes, and resource use management. Four types of information delivery systems are identified: direct-to-user, regional/local user, global modeling user, and research user modes. Current developments in the marine information system include onboard correlation of synthetic aperture radar images at 10 to 100 m resolutions, and the extraction of wave, ship, iceberg or areal feature information from the image or signal before correlation.
Nagler, R. G.↗
Proton stopping cross sections of liquid water
The proton stopping cross section of liquid water for the energy range from 40 keV to 10 MeV is calculated by applying the modified local-plasma model and employing a simple model of liquid water. The calculated stopping cross section of liquid water is about 5.6 percent to 14 percent lower than the calculated vapor-state results for the range of 80 to 500 keV and is about 8.5 percent to 13.4 percent lower than measured vapor-state results. The present results agree well with the measurements for ice crystals. The mechanism of this physical-state effect is also presented.
Xu, Y. J.↗