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DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the Contributions to Human Error Probability from the Convolution of the Distribution of Time Available and Time Required

As part of their duties, Human Reliability Analysis must often evaluate if crews in nuclear power plants (NPPs) can complete tasks associated with a human-failure event within time limits. For example, the time required in NPP scenarios is determined by systematic and structured walkthroughs, feasibility studies, recorded times from training exercises, and interviews with experienced operators and experts. Typically, a point estimate is derived for the estimate (mean, maximum, or 95th percentile of time required). Using point-estimate values can mask the risk associated with variability among crews, plant conditions and set-up, environmental conditions, and other impact factors under which these actions are executed. While point estimates for time required and time available have served the industry well, without considering the uncertainty they could lead to biased understanding about the risk. The Integrated Human Event Analysis System - General Methodology (IDHEAS-G) model (developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC) for human error probability calculates human error probability by summing two probabilities: insufficient time and cognitive error. As such, the model takes a more holistic approach by considering the full distributions for time required and time available to calculate the human error probability because the time available to complete the task is insufficient. In this study, we expand on the work of the NRC and discuss methods for estimating these time considerations. For example, for the time required, the impact of Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) on the distribution was divided into impacts that are aleatory in nature, such as crew-to-crew variability, and those that are epistemic (i.e., the PIFs). Starting with the factors that introduce aleatory uncertainty, a first-order distribution was developed from a large set of time required (i.e., NPP task completion times) data for the range of operator actions that occur in the NPP control room under simulated accident conditions. The first-order distribution can then be adjusted to account for epistemic uncertainty using research associated with the impact of applicable PIFs on the time required. We also develop guidance for analysts to address the probability distributions for the time available. The guidance we developed on how to estimate time required and time available distributions is based on the identification of pertinent research and data, data analyses, and expert knowledge elicitation.

human error probability, human performance, time e↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulator Data Analysis to Inform Digitalized Environment Impacts on Human Reliability

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has developed a human reliability analysis (HRA) method, termed the Integrated Human Event Analysis System for Event and Condition Assessment (IDHEAS-ECA), in order to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) in risk-informed regulatory applications. To update the quantification part of IDHEAS-ECA, the NRC required human performance and error data from fully digitalized main control rooms (MCRs); therefore, it requested that Idaho National Laboratory (INL) revisit previous data collection studies and investigate how the following three factors impact human reliability: self-checking, peer-checking, and automation. The HRA data collection studies revisited were the Human Reliability Data Extraction (HuREX) project, developed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), and the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP), developed by INL. HuREX is a representative HRA data collection study that collects human reliability data from full-scope simulators staffed by licensed operators. SHEEP, on the other hand, has been proposed to complement such full-scope studies by collecting data via simplified simulators staffed by non-licensed student operators. In the HuREX study, KAERI collected HRA data from fully digitalized MCRs for the Advanced Power Reactor (APR)–1400. The SHEEP data were obtained from simplified simulators that partially mimicked the features of digitalized MCRs. The present report mainly discusses how the impacts of the aforementioned three factors on human errors were derived from these two data collection studies.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Janus: A Python Package for Agent-Based Modeling of Land Use and Land Cover Change

Janus is an open source Python package for agent-based modeling (ABM) of land use and land cover change (LULCC). Many ABMs of LULCC have been created across platforms, some of which are not ideal for large scale, high resolution scenarios. This model provides a simple object-oriented framework for creating ABMs specific to LULCC. The organizational philosophy of the modeling framework is to create software objects (agents) that are associated with specific and contextual attributes which are isolated from where those agents exist in the spatial setting of the model, yet provide clear linkages between the agent, their environment, and other agents in the simulation. In this way, the framework allows for assembly of LULCC ABMs with low (programmatic) overhead, making the models extensible and providing clear mechanisms for integrating them with process-oriented biophysical models. Provided with Janus is a suite of geospatial data preprocessing tools that can use arbitrary land cover products as an input. Crop choice decisions are based on potential crop prices, these can be created synthetically, or drawn from integrated human-Earth systems models such as the GCAM. Janus is publicly accessible through GitHub and provides an example dataset for testing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1974

Regional agriculture surveys using ERTS-1 data

The Center for Remote Sensing Research has conducted studies designed to evaluate the potential application of ERTS data in performing agricultural inventories, and to develop efficient methods of data handling and analysis useful in the operational context for performing large area surveys. This work has resulted in the development of an integrated system utilizing both human and computer analysis of ground, aerial, and space imagery, which has been shown to be very efficient for regional crop acreage inventories. The technique involves: (1) the delineation of ERTS images into relatively homogeneous strata by human interpreters, (2) the point-by-point classification of the area within each strata on the basis of crop type using a human/machine interactive digital image processing system; and (3) a multistage sampling procedure for the collection of supporting aerial and ground data used in the adjustment and verification of the classification results.

Draeger, W. C.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Aeronautics Technology Possibilities for 2000: Report of a workshop

The potential of aeronautical research and technology (R&T) development, which could provide the basis for facility planning and long range guidance of R&T programs and could establish justification for support of aeronautical research and technology was studied. The projections served specific purposes: (1) to provide a base for research and future facilities needed to support the projected technologies, and development advanced vehicles; (2) to provide insight on the possible state of the art in aeronautical technology by the year 2000 for civil and military planners of air vehicles and systems. Topics discussed include: aerodynamics; propulsion; structures; materials; guidance, navigation and control; computer and information technology; human factors; and systems integration.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1986

Virtual interface environment

A head-mounted, wide-angle, stereoscopic display system controlled by operator position, voice and gesture has been developed for use as a multipurpose interface environment. The system provides a multisensory, interactive display environment in which a user can virtually explore a 360-degree synthesized or remotely sensed environment and can viscerally interact with its components. Primary applications of the system are in telerobotics, management of large-scale integrated information systems, and human factors research. System configuration, application scenarios, and research directions are described.

Fisher, Scott S.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Virtual workstation - A multimodal, stereoscopic display environment

A head-mounted, wide-angle, stereoscopic display system controlled by operator position, voice and gesture has been developed for use in a multipurpose interface environment. The system provides a multisensory, interactive display environment in which a user can virtually explore a 360-degree synthesized or remotely sensed environment and can viscerally interact with its components. Primary applications of the system are in telerobotics, management of large-scale integrated information systems, and human factors research. System configuration, application scenarios, and research directions are described.

Fisher, S. S.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Virtual interface environment workstations

A head-mounted, wide-angle, stereoscopic display system controlled by operator position, voice and gesture has been developed at NASA's Ames Research Center for use as a multipurpose interface environment. This Virtual Interface Environment Workstation (VIEW) system provides a multisensory, interactive display environment in which a user can virtually explore a 360-degree synthesized or remotely sensed environment and can viscerally interact with its components. Primary applications of the system are in telerobotics, management of large-scale integrated information systems, and human factors research. System configuration, research scenarios, and research directions are described.

Fisher, S. S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Requirements for psychological models to support design: Towards ecological task analysis

Cognitive engineering is largely concerned with creating environmental designs to support skillful and effective human activity. A set of necessary conditions are proposed for psychological models capable of supporting this enterprise. An analysis of the psychological nature of the design product is used to identify a set of constraints that models must meet if they can usefully guide design. It is concluded that cognitive engineering requires models with resources for describing the integrated human-environment system, and that these models must be capable of describing the activities underlying fluent and effective interaction. These features are required in order to be able to predict the cognitive activity that will be required given various design concepts, and to design systems that promote the acquisition of fluent, skilled behavior. These necessary conditions suggest that an ecological approach can provide valuable resources for psychological modeling to support design. Relying heavily on concepts from Brunswik's and Gibson's ecological theories, ecological task analysis is proposed as a framework in which to predict the types of cognitive activity required to achieve productive behavior, and to suggest how interfaces can be manipulated to alleviate certain types of cognitive demands. The framework is described in terms, and illustrated with an example from the previous research on modeling skilled human-environment interaction.

Kirlik, Alex↗

NASA NTRS1993

The Marshall Automated Weld System (MAWS)

A fully automated welding system, which can operate totally independent of human intervention, is currently unavailable in the welding industry. Development of the Marshall Automated Weld System (MAWS) has been undertaken to fill this void. The system will enable application of statistical process control practices to assure weld quality prior to post weld nondestructive testing. The Variable Polarity Plasma Arc (VPPA) welding process has been baselined for MAWS because it has eliminated process related defects in the welding of the Space Shuttle External Tank. The few remaining weld defects occurring on the tank can be associated with human error. The system integrates multiple sensors (providing real time information on weld bead geometry, weld joint location, wirefeed entry, and inert gas quality) with a weld model (describing weld geometry in relation to critical parameters) and computer-controlled VPPA weld equipment. This system is designed to provide real-time, closed-loop control of the weld as it is being made.

Russell, Carolyn K.↗

NASA NTRS1993

The Marshall Automated Weld System (MAWS)

A fully automated welding system, which can operate totally independent of human intervention, is currently unavailable in the welding industry. Development of the Marshall Automated Weld System (MAWS) has been undertaken to fill this void. The system will enable application of statistical process control practices to assure weld quality prior to post weld nondestructive testing. The Variable Polarity Plasma Arc (VPPA) welding process has been baselined for MAWS because it has eliminated process related defects in the welding of the Space Shuttle External Tank. The few remaining weld defects occurring on the tank can be associated with human error. The system integrates multiple sensors (providing real time information on weld bead geometry, weld joint location, wirefeed entry, and inert gas quality) with a weld model (describing weld geometry in relation to critical parameters) and computer controlled VPPA weld equipment. This system is designed to provide real-time, closed-loop control of the weld as it is being made.

Russell, Carolyn K.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Aeronautics Technology Possibilities for 2000: Report of a Workshop

Topics discussed include: Aerodynamics; Propulsion; Structural Analysis and Design Technology; Materials for Structural Members, Propulsion Systems, and Subsystems; Guidance, Navigation, and Control; Computer and Information Technology; Human Factors Engineering; Systems Integration.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2000

A Preliminary Data Model for Orbital Flight Dynamics in Shuttle Mission Control

The Orbital Flight Dynamics group in Shuttle Mission Control is investigating new user interfaces in a project called RIOTS [RIOTS 2000]. Traditionally, the individual functions of hardware and software guide the design of displays, which results in an aggregated, if not integrated interface. The human work system has then been designed and trained to navigate, operate and integrate the processors and displays. The aim of RIOTS is to reduce the cognitive demands of the flight controllers by redesigning the user interface to support the work of the flight controller. This document supports the RIOTS project by defining a preliminary data model for Orbital Flight Dynamics. Section 2 defines an information-centric perspective. An information-centric approach aims to reduce the cognitive workload of the flight controllers by reducing the need for manual integration of information across processors and displays. Section 3 describes the Orbital Flight Dynamics domain. Section 4 defines the preliminary data model for Orbital Flight Dynamics. Section 5 examines the implications of mapping the data model to Orbital Flight Dynamics current information systems. Two recurring patterns are identified in the Orbital Flight Dynamics work the iteration/rework cycle and the decision-making/information integration/mirroring role relationship. Section 6 identifies new requirements on Orbital Flight Dynamics work and makes recommendations based on changing the information environment, changing the implementation of the data model, and changing the two recurring patterns.

ONeill, John↗

NASA NTRS2006

Multiple-Flat-Panel System Displays Multidimensional Data

The NASA Ames hyperwall is a display system designed to facilitate the visualization of sets of multivariate and multidimensional data like those generated in complex engineering and scientific computations. The hyperwall includes a 77 matrix of computer-driven flat-panel video display units, each presenting an image of 1,280 1,024 pixels. The term hyperwall reflects the fact that this system is a more capable successor to prior computer-driven multiple-flat-panel display systems known by names that include the generic term powerwall and the trade names PowerWall and Powerwall. Each of the 49 flat-panel displays is driven by a rack-mounted, dual-central-processing- unit, workstation-class personal computer equipped with a hig-hperformance graphical-display circuit card and with a hard-disk drive having a storage capacity of 100 GB. Each such computer is a slave node in a master/ slave computing/data-communication system (see Figure 1). The computer that acts as the master node is similar to the slave-node computers, except that it runs the master portion of the system software and is equipped with a keyboard and mouse for control by a human operator. The system utilizes commercially available master/slave software along with custom software that enables the human controller to interact simultaneously with any number of selected slave nodes. In a powerwall, a single rendering task is spread across multiple processors and then the multiple outputs are tiled into one seamless super-display. It must be noted that the hyperwall concept subsumes the powerwall concept in that a single scene could be rendered as a mosaic image on the hyperwall. However, the hyperwall offers a wider set of capabilities to serve a different purpose: The hyperwall concept is one of (1) simultaneously displaying multiple different but related images, and (2) providing means for composing and controlling such sets of images. In place of elaborate software or hardware crossbar switches, the hyperwall concept substitutes reliance on the human visual system for integration, synthesis, and discrimination of patterns in complex and high-dimensional data spaces represented by the multiple displayed images. The variety of multidimensional data sets that can be displayed on the hyperwall is practically unlimited. For example, Figure 2 shows a hyperwall display of surface pressures and streamlines from a computational simulation of airflow about an aerospacecraft at various Mach numbers and angles of attack. In this display, Mach numbers increase from left to right and angles of attack increase from bottom to top. That is, all images in the same column represent simulations at the same Mach number, while all images in the same row represent simulations at the same angle of attack. The same viewing transformations and the same mapping from surface pressure to colors were used in generating all the images.

Gundo, Daniel↗

NASA NTRS2015

NASA Ames Sustainability Initiatives: Aeronautics, Space Exploration, and Sustainable Futures

In support of the mission-specific challenges of aeronautics and space exploration, NASA Ames produces a wealth of research and technology advancements with significant relevance to larger issues of planetary sustainability. NASA research on NexGen airspace solutions and its development of autonomous and intelligent technologies will revolutionize both the nation's air transporation systems and have applicability to the low altitude flight economy and to both air and ground transporation, more generally. NASA's understanding of the Earth as a complex of integrated systems contributes to humanity's perception of the sustainability of our home planet. Research at NASA Ames on closed environment life support systems produces directly applicable lessons on energy, water, and resource management in ground-based infrastructure. Moreover, every NASA campus is a 'city'; including an urbanscape and a workplace including scientists, human relations specialists, plumbers, engineers, facility managers, construction trades, transportation managers, software developers, leaders, financial planners, technologists, electricians, students, accountants, and even lawyers. NASA is applying the lessons of our mission-related activities to our urbanscapes and infrastructure, and also anticipates a leadership role in developing future environments for living and working in space.

Planetary futures↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) of Human Space Missions for the Advanced Integration Matrix (AIM)

The Advanced Integration Matrix (AIM) Project u7ill study and solve systems-level integration issues for exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), through the design and development of a ground-based facility for developing revolutionary integrated systems for joint human-robotic missions. This paper describes a Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) of human space missions that was developed to help define the direction and priorities for AIM. Risk analysis is required for all major NASA programs and has been used for shuttle, station, and Mars lander programs. It is a prescribed part of early planning and is necessary during concept definition, even before mission scenarios and system designs exist. PRA cm begin when little failure data are available, and be continually updated and refined as detail becomes available. PRA provides a basis for examining tradeoffs among safety, reliability, performance, and cost. The objective of AIM's PRA is to indicate how risk can be managed and future human space missions enabled by the AIM Project. Many critical events can cause injuries and fatalities to the crew without causing loss of vehicle or mission. Some critical systems are beyond AIM's scope, such as propulsion and guidance. Many failure-causing events can be mitigated by conducting operational tests in AIM, such as testing equipment and evaluating operational procedures, especially in the areas of communications and computers, autonomous operations, life support, thermal design, EVA and rover activities, physiological factors including habitation, medical equipment, and food, and multifunctional tools and repairable systems. AIM is well suited to test and demonstrate the habitat, life support, crew operations, and human interface. Because these account for significant crew, systems performance, and science risks, AIM will help reduce mission risk, and missions beyond LEO are far enough in the future that AIM can have significant impact.

Jones, Harry W.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Trusted Communication: Utilizing Speech Communication to Enhance Human-Machine Teaming Success

An area of increasing interest for the next generation of aircraft is autonomy and the integration of increasingly autonomous systems into the national airspace. Such an integration requires humans to work closely with autonomous systems, forming teams. Our hypothesis is that a team composed of both humans and autonomous systems will operate better than either entity alone. We have existing procedures for certifying pilots to operate in the national airspace and are currently working on methods for validating the function of autonomous systems, however we have no method in place for assessing the interaction of these two disparate systems. Communication is one avenue. This paper will examine the use of language as a metric for ascertaining human-machine teaming effectiveness. A proof-of-concept of the application of two communication-based analysis techniques, Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) and Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA), for the prediction of success in human/chatbot teaming was conducted. By running these analyses over data from the 2014 and 2015 Loebner Prize competitions of human/chatbot teaming, numerical scores were obtained that can be associated with scores provided by human judges during the competition. Correlating their LIWC and LSA data with the scores provided by the judges, and using linear regression over this correlation, formulae were obtained that predict the score of human/chatbot interaction. These formulae were tested over the 2013 Loebner Prize transcripts, determining that, though there was strong correlation between predicted and actual scores, the predictive success of this method was not strong. However, with specialized topic spaces and lexica, as well as larger data sets, the predictive power of these metrics will improve. Given the importance of providing metrics for human-machine system team success and given the promise shown by the communication-basedLIWCand LSAmethods, continuing research in this area is necessary. After examining the potential for using communication and spoken language as a metric for the success of human/autonomous system teaming, this paper then examines aspects inherent to communication systems that may contribute to unreliability and reduced trust. Modern natural language processing tools rely on deep learning algorithms to create language rules that produce accurate results, but these rules are uninterpretable. The resulting blackbox system lacks transparency necessary for full validation and complete trust. Additionally, speech-based interfaces pose other difficulties to developing coordinated teamwork between humans and autonomous systems. Human communication is infrequently limited to speech only, instead usually relying on a combination of verbal, gestural, and general body language communication. Reducing an analysis of team effectiveness to a study of spoken language alone is problematic as it leaves these other equally important forms of communication out. This paper will examine these problems and the general deficiencies in speech-based metrics for human-machine teaming.

E L Meszaros↗

NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of Technology Concepts for Traffic Data Management and Relevant Audio for Datalink in Commercial Airline Flight Decks

Datalink is currently operational for departure clearances and in oceanic environments and is currently being tested in high altitude domestic enroute airspace. Interaction with even simple datalink clearances may create more workload for flight crews than the voice system they replace if not carefully designed. Datalink may also introduce additional complexity for flight crews with hundreds of uplink messages now defined for use. Finally, flight crews may lose airspace awareness and operationally relevant information that they normally pickup from Air Traffic Control (ATC) voice communications with other aircraft (i.e., “party-line” transmissions). Once again, automation may be poised to increase workload on the flight deck for incremental benefit. Datalink implementation to support future air traffic management concepts needs to be carefully considered, understanding human communication norms and especially, the change from voice- to text-based communications modality and its effect on pilot workload and situation awareness. Increasingly autonomous systems, where autonomy is designed to support human-autonomy teaming, may be suited to solve these issues. NASA is conducting research and development of increasingly autonomous systems, utilizing machine-learning algorithms seamlessly integrated with humans whereby task performance of the combined system is significantly greater than the individual components. Increasingly autonomous systems offer the potential for significantly improved levels of performance and safety that are superior to either human or automation alone. Two increasingly autonomous systems concepts - a traffic data manager and a conversational co-pilot - were developed to intelligently address the datalink issues in a complex, future state environment with significant levels of traffic. The system was tested for suitability of datalink usage for terminal airspace. The traffic data manager allowed for automated declutter of the Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) display. The system determined relevant traffic for display based on machine learning algorithms trained by experienced human pilot behaviors. The conversational co-pilot provided relevant audio air traffic control messages based on context and proximity to ownship. Both systems made use of the connected aircraft concepts to provide intelligent context to determine relevancy above and beyond proximity to ownship. A human-in-the-loop test was conducted in NASA Langley Research Center’s Integration Flight Deck B-737-800 simulator to evaluate the traffic data manager and the conversational co-pilot. Twelve airline crews flew various normal and non-normal procedures and their actions and performance were recorded in response to the procedural events. This paper details the flight crew performance and evaluation during the events.

Etherington, Timothy↗