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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Air quality and health impacts of the 2020 wildfires in California

Abstract Background Wildfires in 2020 ravaged California to set the annual record of area burned to date. Clusters of wildfires in Northern California surrounded the Bay Area covering the skies with smoke and raising the air pollutant concentrations to hazardous levels. This study uses the Fire Inventory from the National Center for Atmospheric Research database and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model to estimate the effects of wildfire emissions on air quality during the period from August 16 to October 28 of 2020. In addition, low-cost sensor data for fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) from the PurpleAir network is used to enhance modeled PM 2.5 concentrations. The resulting impacts on ozone and PM 2.5 are used to quantify the health impacts caused by wildfires using the Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program – Community Edition. Results Wildfire activity significantly increased direct PM 2.5 emissions and emissions of PM 2.5 and ozone precursors. Direct PM 2.5 emissions surged up to 38 times compared to an average day. Modeling results indicated that wildfires alone led to a rise in ozone daily maximum 8-h average by up to 10 ppb and exceeded PM 2.5 air quality standards in numerous locations by up to 10 times. While modeled PM 2.5 concentrations were lower than measurements, correcting these with PurpleAir data improved the accuracy. The correction using PurpleAir data increased estimates of wildfire-induced mortality due to PM 2.5 exposure by up to 16%. Conclusions The increased hospital admissions and premature mortality attributed to wildfires were found to be comparable to the health impacts avoided by strategies aimed at meeting ozone and PM2.5 air quality standards. This suggests that widespread wildfire emissions can negate years of efforts dedicated to controlling air pollution. The integration of low-cost sensor data proved invaluable in refining the estimates of health impacts from PM2.5 resulting from wildfires.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Intelligent Process Visualization through Nuclear Operation Process Modeling, Reasoning, and Object Detection from Field Videos (Final Report)

This report is a deliverable for the “Final Report” task of DOE NEET Project 19-16790, "Context-Aware Safety Information Display for Nuclear Field Workers." This project's overall goal is to test the hypothesis that integrating computer vision and process reasoning methods will enable proactive visualization of the safe operation and maintenance processes of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) for field workers. Augmented Reality (AR) glasses adopting such proactive safety information visualization techniques can significantly increase personnel safety and reduce the NPP’s operating costs. The current practice of monitoring NPPs requires workers to switch between digital models, data, and physical workspaces in identifying relevant but potentially occluded objects and in assessing the risks of operation and maintenance processes. On the other hand, frequently changed field conditions require field workers to report to supervisors for real-time guidance. Such guidance is essential to ensure that changing conditions will not invalidate or endanger the work order and other ongoing processes that may jeopardize NPP operations. Additionally, incorrect recognition of equipment objects can result in communication errors and safety problems. AR techniques can assist engineers in viewing the physical workspaces with objects labeled with detailed operation procedures and safety reminders during field operations. The project team developed an “Intelligent Context-Aware Safety Information Display” (ICAD) for supporting Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) field workers in achieving safe and efficient execution of a series of operational tasks in uncertain and changing workspaces of an NPP. Before designing the ICAD-AR prototype, the project team synthesized NPP operational knowledge models through literature review studies, surveys, interviews with domain experts, and knowledge modeling. The project team conducted an extensive study of the operational procedures of various NPPs, and digital technologies that can support the safe and efficient execution of those procedures in different NPP operational contexts. This literature review helped the project team conduct surveys and interviews with nuclear engineers and field workers to identify three categories of information. The NPP knowledge modeling efforts reveal that the three categories of information identified have different levels of importance in a typical procedure of carrying out a series of tasks to achieve a specific NPP operation goal (e.g., shutdown, mode changes). These three categories of information include 1) Workspace dynamics – the changing spatial arrangements of workspaces, tools, protection equipment, and supporting materials, 2) Workflow prognostics – the dynamic dependencies between different parts of an NPP that functionally support and influence each other in terms of safety and efficiency, and 3) Hazards – objects and spaces that contain hazardous materials or physical conditions that can pose risks to workers or mechanical systems. The project team has profiled the importance levels of these categories of information into a knowledge model. This knowledge model specifies what types of information are more critical for a given task in a given workspace so that computers can automatically identify critical objects and sensors in a scene for delivering context-ware safety information to field workers through AR devices. Significant research development of this project results in technical research outcomes and a prototyping system that illustrates the technical feasibility of establishing an ICAD-AR system supporting the proactive safety information display for nuclear field workers. This final report summarizes the project team’s technological achievements in the past three years. Overall, the project team completed the development and integration of five techniques into a prototype ICAD Augmented Reality (ICAD-AR) system and demonstrated the developed system’s real-time execution in a mechanical room. The project team completed the analysis of using this prototype in other types of workspaces based on 3D image data and digital design models collected from two additional workspaces (a water treatment plant and a flow loop training facility). The integrated techniques include 1) Natural Language Processing (NLP) algorithms supporting the generation and updates of nuclear fieldwork process models based on text analysis of work packages and operation manuals; 2) sensor log analysis for predicting control actions in given sensor reading contexts; 3) computer vision algorithms for automatic localization and navigation of workers; 4) object detection algorithms for identifying task-related objects and correlated sensors for safety checking; 5) AR technique as a platform for supporting the integration. The testing results of these five techniques have shown that 1) the sensor log analysis model can predict the next control action with an accuracy of 0.883; 2) the trained natural language processing model can extract more than 80% of the critical information from paper-based procedures (PBPs); 3) the navigation algorithm with the integration of Visual Inertial Odometry (VIO) and Non-Recursive Bayesian Filter methods make operator’s trajectory estimation resilient to drift error; 4) the computer vision algorithm can detect task-specific and safety-critical objects with an average accuracy of 95.3%. The project team used work procedures collected from a flow loop training facility and two datasets collected from two mechanical rooms simulating the workspaces of NPPs to demonstrate the technical capabilities of the developed ICAD-AR prototype. The demonstration validated the technical feasibility of establishing the ICAD-AR system for nuclear field workers and identified the challenges in 1) automatic text analysis of work packages; 2) use of limited samples of sensor logs for predicting the proper timings of control actions; 3) reliably tracking workers and their task progress in mechanical rooms with many similar objects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterization of 3D printing filaments containing metal additives and their particulate emissions

Polylactic acid (PLA) filaments are widely used in fused filament fabrication (FFF) processes (3D printing). Filament additives such as metallic particles incorporated into PLA to modify functional and aesthetic features of print objects are becoming increasingly popular. However, the identities and concentrations of low percentage and trace metals in these filaments have not been well described in either the literature or product safety information included with the product. Here, we report the structures and concentrations of metals in selected Copperfill, Bronzefill and Steelfill filaments. We also report size-weighted number concentrations and size-weighted mass concentrations of particulate emissions as a function of print temperature for each filament. Particulate emissions were heterogenous in shape and size with airborne particles below 50 nm diameter dominating the size-weighted particle concentrations and larger particles (approximately 300 nm) dominating the mass weighted particle concentration. Results indicate that potential exposure to particles in the nano-size range increase when using print temperatures above 200o C. Because inhalation exposure to nanoparticles has been linked to adverse health outcomes, we suggest that using lower print temperatures for specific metal-fill filaments may reduce their operational hazard.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Model-Free Dynamic Voltage Control of a Synchronous Generator-Based Microgrid

The main goal of this paper is to present a new dynamic voltage stability mechanism, based on model-free control (MFC), for effective control and coordination of synchronous generator (SG)-based reactive power resources in a microgrid setting. MFC has shown successful operation in various domains, and this paper presents its first use in the voltage stability of a power system. It is utilized as an online controller to achieve the dynamic voltage stability of a microgrid system under different disturbances and fault conditions. A 21-bus microgrid system fed by SG-based distributed energy resources (DERs) is considered as a use case study. The overall dynamic voltage stability of the microgrid system is investigated using time-domain dynamic simulations during emergency, hazard, and disaster events. Simulation results show that there are significant improvements and enhancements on the dynamic load bus voltage profiles of the microgrid system by the effective model-free control and coordination of the reactive power reserves of the SG-based DERs.

Hatipoglu, Kenan↗
DOE OSTI2020

Radiolytic degradation of formic acid and formate in aqueous solution: modeling the final stages of organic mineralization under advanced oxidation process conditions

The successful use of advanced oxidation processes to treat aqueous solutions containing undesirable organic species requires the degradation of these species to lower molecular weight, lower hazard compounds. Safe application of this technology requires a thorough understanding of the mechanisms of degradation. These oxidative transformations are mainly initiated by the reactions of reactive oxygen species, particularly hydroxyl radicals. These react with organic molecules to generate carbon-centered radicals. In the presence of dissolved oxygen, the carbon-centered radicals are next converted to peroxyl radicals, which then decay to lower molecular weight species by multiple mechanistic pathways. Formic acid and its conjugate base formate are the last stable chemical species produced immediately before the complete mineralization of any organic molecule undergoing oxidative degradation in aqueous solution. Once understood, the radical-induced chemistry of formic acid/formate under these conditions has wide applicability in all advanced oxidation technologies. To develop this quantitative knowledge, here we have performed a series of 60 Co gamma irradiation studies on aqueous formic acid/formate over different pH and solution conditions. The measured species concentration changes, as a function of applied dose, are compared with the predictions of a kinetic computer model constructed from literature reactions and reported rate coefficients. The excellent agreement found between the results and modeling gives confidence in the mechanism presented here and provide the first complete computer model for the radiolytic degradation of formic acid in water.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Volatile organic compound emissions from 4D printing: Effects of material composition and external stimulus

4D printing of stimuli-responsive materials extends 3D printing by enabling the fabricated structures to transform their shapes and properties over time in response to external stimuli. Numerous research efforts have been dedicated to developing new smart materials, enhancing material printability, and ensuring time-evolving properties. Meanwhile, the use of smart materials and external stimuli in 4D printing has introduced the possibility of air emissions that can potentially deteriorate the indoor air quality at the workplace and pose continuous health hazards to users during the production and use phases. These potential air emissions caused by 4D printing have not yet been assessed in current literature, leading to unknown occupational hazards and human health effects. This study focuses on stereolithography-based 4D printing with constrained thermo-mechanics and builds an emission model to quantify the volatile organic compound emissions from printing, shape programming, and shape recovery stages. The established model mathematically links the emission characteristics with material compositional design and stimuli-response mechanisms. Additionally, shape fixity and recovery abilities are considered to analyze the trade-off between the air emissions and stimuli-response performance of 4D printed parts. Case study results suggest that the methacrylate-based thermo-responsive material with higher glass transition temperature leads to higher air emissions, surpassing the permissible exposure level in the indoor environment. By altering the thermo-temporal conditions, a 61.29% reduction in emission yield can be achieved while ensuring a satisfactory shape memory performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Nonergodic Ground-Motion Model for the San Francisco Bay Area for Small-Magnitude Earthquakes

ABSTRACT Recently, generative models have become a computationally efficient alternative to physics-based numerical simulations of ground motions. Neural networks can learn from existing ground-motion data to generate unobserved ground-motion data at new source and site locations. A key challenge with generative models is ensuring that predicted ground motions remain within a physically realistic range. For this purpose, we developed an empirical, nonergodic ground-motion model (GMM) for small-magnitude earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area based on about 5000 recordings per component for Mw ≤ 4 earthquakes. The nonergodic GMM predicts spatially varying median source, site, and path effects for both the Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) and the Fourier phase derivative (a proxy for duration), as well as the corresponding epistemic uncertainty for each term. For FAS, our model shows above-average source and site effects in the western part of the region and below-average effects in the eastern part, with regional effects exhibiting larger spatial correlation lengths with increasing frequency. For duration, the source term is negligible for small-magnitude earthquakes, and the site term leads to site-specific variations up to 5 s. Path effects for FAS and duration depend on the source–site pair and are extrapolated spatially using recent methods for path-effect modeling. The aleatory variability of the within-site within-path residuals is similar to the variability found in previous studies for other regions. The nonergodic model provides two key contributions: first, median adjustment terms that are transferable to larger magnitude earthquakes, further reducing aleatory variability in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis; second, region-specific criteria for validating machine learning-based ground-motion generators to evaluate whether synthetic ground motions exhibit physically realistic source, site, and path effects.

Lacour, Maxime↗
DOE OSTI2025

Historical and Future Windstorms in the Northeastern United States

Large-scale windstorms represent an important atmospheric hazard in the Northeastern US (NE) and are associated with substantial socioeconomic losses. Regional simulations performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using lateral boundary conditions from three Earth System Models (ESMs: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and Max Planck Institute (MPI)) are used to quantify possible future changes in windstorm characteristics and/or changes in the parent cyclone types responsible for windstorms. WRF nested within MPI ESM best represents important aspects of historical windstorms and the cyclone types responsible for generating windstorms compared with a reference simulation performed with the ERA-Interim reanalysis for the historical climate. The spatial scale and frequency of the largest windstorms in each simulation defined using the greatest extent of exceedance of local 99.9th percentile wind speeds (U > U999) plus 50-year return period wind speeds (U50,RP) do not exhibit secular trends. Projections of extreme wind speeds and windstorm intensity/frequency/geolocation and dominant parent cyclone type associated with windstorms vary markedly across the simulations. Only the MPI nested simulations indicate statistically significant differences in windstorm spatial scale, frequency and intensity over the NE in the future and historical periods. This model chain, which also exhibits the highest fidelity in the historical climate, yields evidence of future increases in 99.9th percentile 10 m height wind speeds, the frequency of simultaneous U > U999 over a substantial fraction (5–25%) of the NE and the frequency of maximum wind speeds above 22.5 ms−1. These geophysical changes, coupled with a projected doubling of population, leads to a projected tripling of a socioeconomic loss index, and hence risk to human systems, from future windstorms.

Pryor, Sara C. (ORCID:0000000348473440)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bioactivity Profiling of Chemical Mixtures for Hazard Characterization

Abstract The assessment and regulation of chemical toxicity to protect human health and the environment are done one chemical at a time and seldom at environmentally relevant concentrations. However, chemicals are found in the environment as mixtures, and their toxicity is largely unknown. Understanding the hazard posed by chemicals within the mixture is critical to enforce protective measures. Here, we demonstrate the application of bioactivity profiling of environmental water samples using the sentinel and ecotoxicology model species Daphnia to reveal the biomolecular response induced by exposure to real-world mixtures. We exposed a Daphnia strain to 30 sampled waters of the Chaobai River and measured the gene expression response profiles. Using a multiblock correlation analysis, we establish correlations between chemical mixtures identified in 30 water samples with gene expression patterns induced by these chemical mixtures. We identified 80 metabolic pathways putatively activated by mixtures of inorganic ions, heavy metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, industrial chemicals, and a set of biocides, pesticides, and pharmacologically active substances. Our data-driven approach discovered both known bioactivity signatures with previously described modes of action and new pathways linked to undiscovered potential hazards. This study demonstrates the feasibility of reducing the complexity of real-world mixture toxicity to characterize the biomolecular effects of a defined number of chemical components based on gene expression monitoring of the sentinel species Daphnia.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Joint Cyber/Safety Risk in Nuclear Power Systems

This report presents an analysis of the Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) for a generic Boiling Water Reactor (BWR)-4 NPP. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) developed Hazards and Consequences Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS) process is applied to the ECCS and its subsystems to identify unsafe control actions (UCAs) which act as possible cyber events of concern. The analysis is performed for two design basis events: Small-break Loss of Coolant Accident (SLOCA) and general transients (TRANS), such as unintended reactor trip. In previous work, HAZCADS UCAs were combined with other cyber-attack analysis to develop a risk-informed approach; however, this was for a single system. This report explores advanced systems engineering modeling approaches to model the interactions between digital assets across multiple systems which may be targeted by cyber adversaries. The complex and interdependent design of digital systems has the potential to introduce emergent cyber properties that are generally not covered by hazard analyses nor formal nuclear Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). The R&D and supporting analysis presented here explores approaches to predict and manage how interdependent system properties effect risk. To show the potential impact of a successful cyber-attack to formal PRA event tree probabilities, HAZCADS analysis was also used. HAZCADS was also used to model the automatic depressurization system (ADS) automatic actuation. This analysis extended to an integrated system analysis for common-cause failure (CCF). In this aspect, the HAZCADS analysis continued by analyzing plant design details for system connectivity in support of critical plant functions. A dependency matrix was developed to depict the integrated functionality of the interconnected systems. Areas of potential CCF are indicated. Future work could include adversary attack development to show how CCF could be caused, resulting in PRA events. Across the multiple systems that comprise the ECCS, the analysis shows that the change in such probabilities was very different between systems. This indicates that some systems have a larger potential risk impact from successful cyber-attack or digital failure, which indicates a need for these systems to have a higher priority for design and defensive measures. Furthermore, we were able to establish that a risk analysis using any arbitrary threat model establishes an ordering of components with regard to cyber-risk. This ordering can be used to influence the overall system design with an eye to lowering risk, or as a way to understand real-time risk to operational systems based on a current threat landscape. Expert knowledge of both the analysis process and the system being analyzed is required to perform a HAZCADS analysis. The need for a tiered risk analysis is demonstrated by the results of this report.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Compilation of a Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog and Relocations in the Caucasus Region

Instrumental seismic monitoring has a long history in the Caucasus and started in 1899 when the first seismograph was installed in Tbilisi, Georgia. Much of the analog paper records from this time period are preserved in the Tbilisi archives because Georgia served as the regional data center. In the 1990s, due to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the political turmoil in the region, the analog networks and the communication between the newly formed national networks deteriorated. In Georgia, for the next 13 yr, the seismic network coverage was poor until the 2002 Tbilisi earthquake. Following this earthquake, the first permanent digital seismic station in Georgia was established in Tbilisi in 2003. The digital era progressively improved the ability to collect and archive data and today more than a hundred broadband seismic stations (including temporary arrays) are operating in the southern Caucasus. Until recently, the region lacked a coordinated effort to catalog all analog and digital era data collected by different countries into a single repository. As a result of collaboration between Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the Ilia State University, and the Republican Seismic Survey Center of Azerbaijan, a comprehensive earthquake catalog was compiled for the Caucasus and neighboring areas as part of a broader probabilistic seismic hazard assessment project. Here this project digitized Soviet-era paper bulletins, compiled a unified earthquake catalog from regional bulletins, developed 1D reference velocity model, and used it to relocate the events. The final catalog contains 16,963 events with magnitudes 3.7 and above, bringing together all the available data sets in the Caucasus region from 1900 to 2015, significantly improving locations, and generating the most complete earthquake catalog in the region, temporally and geographically.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling-Based Assessment of Deep Seismic Potential Induced by Geologic Carbon Storage

Induced seismicity is an inherent risk associated with geologic carbon storage (GCS) in deep rock formations that could contain undetected faults prone to failure. Modeling-based risk assessment has been implemented to quantify the potential of injection-induced seismicity, but typically simplified multiscale geologic features or neglected multiphysics coupled mechanisms because of the uncertainty in field data and computational cost of field-scale simulations, which may limit the reliable prediction of seismic hazard caused by industrial-scale CO 2 storage. The degree of lateral continuity of the stratigraphic interbedding below the reservoir and depth-dependent fault permeability can enhance or inhibit pore-pressure diffusion and corresponding poroelastic stressing along a basement fault. In conclusion, this study presents a rigorous modeling scheme with optimal geological and operational parameters needed to be considered in seismic monitoring and mitigation strategies for safe GCS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts

As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human–water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events; and (3) a table of the indicators of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management; changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability; and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gaussian Process Emulators for Volcanic Ash Dispersion Model Tephra2

It is necessary to predict volcanic ash deposition since falling ash is harmful to human activities. Because simulators built for this purpose are computationally expensive, it is popular to use statistical emulators for geophysical hazard analyses, where a large number of simulations are required. Gaussian stochastic process emulators are able to approximate expensive simulations in an accurate and efficient way. Using a relatively small number of simulation runs, a well-trained emulator can accurately predict simulation outputs at massive new input points in a few seconds. Under different explosive eruption conditions, we constructed Gaussian stochastic process emulators for Tephra2, a simulation tool for estimating the accumulation of volcanic ash over a region. Historical wind records are used as input wind data, without assuming a Gaussian wind speed profile or common wind direction among elevations. While there are several inputs for Tephra2, we use no more than three physically motivated variables as emulator inputs to reduce the computational cost of emulations. The emulator outputs predict the mass of tephra per unit area at 50281 grid points around a predetermined vent location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stakeholder-guided holistic, Adaptive Framework for enhancing community Energy Resilience (SAFER) (Final Technical Report)

The Stakeholder-guided holistic, Adaptive Framework for enhancing community Energy Resilience (SAFER) project advances resilience science and engineering by addressing challenges in rural Kansas communities where aging infrastructure, extreme weather, and socioeconomic disparities heighten vulnerability to energy disruptions. Traditional approaches often focus on technical performance while overlooking community concerns and priorities. SAFER responds by integrating community perspectives with advanced analytical frameworks to create a holistic model for measuring and improving resilience. Project objectives included developing novel resilience metrics, advancing modeling frameworks that capture interdependencies across infrastructures, and embedding community-centric indicators directly into planning processes for distributed energy resources. The key technical innovations included the creation of self-organizing map (SOM)-based indices for objective resilience quantification, hetero-functional graph theory (HFGT) models linking power, water, transportation, and community assets, and graph neural network (GNN) tools for identifying critical nodes in complex systems. Community-centric energy planning was demonstrated through optimal siting and sizing of (photovoltaic) PV and battery storage, ensuring resilience enhancements also addressed energy burden and energy insecurity. SAFER engaged community partners in Dodge City and Ford County through surveys, focus groups, and workshops, generating more than 600 responses that established baseline measures of energy burden, financial insecurity, and willingness-to-pay to avoid outages. This data, organized in terms of a community capitals framework, informed the development of weighted reliability indices that better reflect community costs than traditional utility metrics. SAFER’s GNN-based critical node identification framework identified expert-labelled critical nodes with over 99% accuracy, while also uncovering additional functionalities essential for proactive resilience planning. The project’s models demonstrated that optimal PV and storage deployment could improve resilience indices by over 11 percent, with dispatch strategies further enhancing outcomes, confirming both the technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of these approaches. Through its combined emphasis on rigorous modeling, community-focused planning, and community engagement, SAFER advances the state of resilience research while delivering direct benefits to rural communities. The project provides tools, guidelines, and resilience heatmaps that help utilities, local governments, and residents better anticipate disruptions, prioritize investments, and strengthen the capacity to withstand and recover from energy-related hazards. Furthermore, the developed HFG and GNN frameworks are designed for transferability, allowing them to be adapted for resilience planning in other communities with minimal retraining. This inductive learning capability provides a scalable pathway to extend the SAFER project’s impact. Thus, creating a foundation for a nationally applicable model of infrastructure resilience. Additionally, the HFG can also be extended to include other FEMA community lifelines.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Adult weight change and premenopausal breast cancer risk: A prospective pooled analysis of data from 628,463 women

Early-adulthood body size is strongly inversely associated with risk of premenopausal breast cancer. It is unclear whether subsequent changes in weight affect risk. We pooled individual-level data from 17 prospective studies to investigate the association of weight change with premenopausal breast cancer risk, considering strata of initial weight, timing of weight change, other breast cancer risk factors and breast cancer subtype. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were obtained using Cox regression. Among 628,463 women, 10,886 were diagnosed with breast cancer before menopause. Models adjusted for initial weight at ages 18–24 years and other breast cancer risk factors showed that weight gain from ages 18–24 to 35–44 or to 45–54 years was inversely associated with breast cancer overall (e.g., HR per 5 kg to ages 45–54: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.95–0.98) and with oestrogen-receptor(ER)-positive breast cancer (HR per 5 kg to ages 45–54: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.94–0.98). Weight gain from ages 25–34 was inversely associated with ER-positive breast cancer only and weight gain from ages 35–44 was not associated with risk. None of these weight gains were associated with ER-negative breast cancer. Weight loss was not consistently associated with overall or ER-specific risk after adjusting for initial weight. Weight increase from early-adulthood to ages 45–54 years is associated with a reduced premenopausal breast cancer risk independently of early-adulthood weight. Biological explanations are needed to account for these two separate factors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Fish-Related Properties of Kaplan Turbines at the Design Phase: Simulation-based outcomes vs. Experimental Data

The development of turbine technology faces growing demands to maximize the survival of migratory fish passing through turbine flows. In this context, two strategies have emerged for quantifying hazardous hydraulic conditions: computer-based evaluations at design stage and recordings with autonomous sensors deployed in prototypes. The former is a desktop evaluation with many modelling assumptions (idealization) and the latter is a field technique that introduces various unknown and uncontrollable factors (uncertainty.) The present work introduces and implements a third method based on test rig measurements and the corresponding computer-based predictions of conditions that negatively affect fish survivability. The experimental work was conducted in a five-bladed Kaplan turbine model in which miniaturized autonomous sensors (SF Mini, developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, U.S.) measured fish-relevant hydraulic features. The modelling work involved flow simulations according to industry practices and the representation of fish trajectories through the simulated flow conditions. We compared both the experimental measurements and CFD outcomes and discussed the challenges and advantages of the modelling strategies, as well as the benefits for turbine engineers in need of incorporating effective design concepts to mitigate fish mortality through turbines.

Romero-Gomez, Pedro↗
DOE OSTI2022

APPLICATION OF OBJECTIVES-DRIVEN ASSURANCE CASES TO SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IN AN EVOLVING ACQUISITION MODEL

System properties such as “safety” and “dependability” cannot, in practice, be proven, and must be argued in an “assurance case” aimed at supporting risk-acceptance decisions that have to be made by system acquirers and/or regulatory authorities. The paper is concerned with applications of the “assurance case” idea early in design and development of new systems, when (apart from dedicated testing) the only available operating experience information derives from previous (non-identical) systems. Much of the discussion is based on an evolving acquisition model at the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration; previously, most major systems were developed in-house, but some major systems will now be developed by and acquired from commercial providers. Key points discussed include the following. (1) By promoting a particular kind of focused discussion between acquirers and providers, the use of assurance cases should be particularly valuable under the new acquisition model. (2) In principle, objectives-driven (sometimes called “performance-based”) approaches to assurance of performance have significant advantages in cases where they are applicable. (3) For truly novel systems, completeness of the safety analysis is a significant issue; it is important for the assurance case to include a commitment by the provider (or applicant) to seriously pursue analysis of operating experience, so that previously unrecognized hazards can be identified and addressed. (4) Inquiries into major accidents often point to deficiencies in management oversight in all parts of the life cycle; management processes need to be addressed in the formulation and the implementation of an assurance case. Under the new acquisition model, these considerations imply a serious reconsideration of the way in which the development process is managed by both providers and acquirers.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗