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At least 343 records · Page 19

Jet streak circulations associated with a moderate snowfall event as diagnosed from NGM model output

The existence, evolution, and interaction of vertical circulations associated with upper-level jet streaks during a moderate snowfall event are diagnosed using a nested grid model (NGM). The event itself is overviewed, and the diagnosis of transverse circulations utilizing NGM output is discussed. Focus is placed on the identification of the horizontal and vertical components of the circulation, the temporal evolution of the circulation, and the comparison of the circulation from successive model forecasts. A preliminary analysis of the model data indicates that the horizontal and vertical branches of the circulations can be diagnosed from the model output, and the horizontal and vertical components of the circulations may be identified and followed during an individual forecast cycle.

Kocin, Paul J.↗

Impact analysis of heating electrification in US buildings with geothermal heat pumps

Few studies have investigated the impacts of large-scale deployment of geothermal heat pumps (GHPs, also called ground source heat pumps) on the electric grid. GHPs utilize the ground as a heat source to warm buildings more efficiently than other space-heating systems. The coupling with the ground offers seasonal thermal storage so that GHPs can also cool buildings in summer more efficiently than other space-cooling systems. This study simulated the performance of GHP systems for various commercial and residential buildings in 15 climate zones in the United States. Combined with the latest End-Use Load Profiles of the US building stock and grid modeling, this study aims to assess the impacts of a national deployment of GHP systems on the US electric grid in terms of energy consumption, emissions, and operational resilience. The preliminary results show that the GHP deployment can save 429 billion kWh of electricity (a 19% reduction from baseline) and reduce carbon emissions by 496 million tons per year (a 31 % reduction from baseline). A geographical view of the results indicates that retrofitting existing HVAC systems with new GHP systems can lead to further reductions in annual electricity consumption and peak electricity demand in the southern regions of the United States than in other parts of the country. On the other hand, GHP retrofits result in higher percentages of site energy savings and carbon emission reduction in the north (cold climates) than in the south (warm climates).

Liu, Xiaobing↗

Evaluation of autoconversion and accretion enhancement factors in general circulation model warm-rain parameterizations using ground-based measurements over the Azores

A great challenge in climate modeling is how to parameterize subgrid cloud processes, such as autoconversion and accretion in warm-rain formation. In this study, we use ground-based observations and retrievals over the Azores to investigate the so-called enhancement factors, E auto and E accr , which are often used in climate models to account for the influence of subgrid variance of cloud and precipitation water on the autoconversion and accretion processes. E auto and E accr are computed for different equivalent model grid sizes. The calculated E auto values increase from 1.96 (30 km) to 3.2 (180 km), and the calculated E accr values increase from 1.53 (30 km) to 1.76 (180 km). Comparing the prescribed enhancement factors in Morrison and Gettleman (2008, MG08) to the observed ones, we found that a higher E auto (3.2) at small grids and lower E accr (1.07) are used in MG08, which might explain why most of the general circulation models (GCMs) produce too-frequent precipitation events but with too-light precipitation intensity. The ratios of the rain to cloud water mixing ratio ( q r / q c ) at E accr =1.07 and E accr =2.0 are 0.063 and 0.142, respectively, from observations, further suggesting that the prescribed value of E accr =1.07 used in MG08 is too small to simulate precipitation intensity correctly. Both E auto and E accr increase when the boundary layer becomes less stable, and the values are larger in precipitating clouds ( CLWP>75 gm -2 ) than those in non-precipitating clouds ( CLWP<75 gm -2 ). Therefore, the selection of E auto and E accr values in GCMs should be regime- and resolution-dependent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ionization and thermal equilibrium models for O star winds based on time-independent radiation-driven wind theory

Ab initio ionization and thermal equilibrium models are calculated for the winds of O stars using the results of steady state radiation-driven wind theory to determine the input parameters. Self-consistent methods are used for the roles of H, He, and the most abundant heavy elements in both the statistical and the thermal equilibrium. The model grid was chosen to encompass all O spectral subtypes and the full range of luminosity classes. Results of earlier modeling of O star winds by Klein and Castor (1978) are reproduced and used to motivate improvements in the treatment of the hydrogen equilibrium. The wind temperature profile is revealed to be sensitive to gross changes in the heavy element abundances, but insensitive to other factors considered such as the mass-loss rate and velocity law. The reduced wind temperatures obtained in observing the luminosity dependence of the Si IV lambda 1397 wind absorption profile are shown to eliminate any prospect of explaining the observed O VI lambda 1036 line profiles in terms of time-independent radiation-driven wind theory.

Drew, J. E.↗

MODIS Snow-Cover Products

On December 18, 1999, the Terra satellite was launched with a complement of five instruments including the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Many geophysical products are derived from MODIS data including global snow-cover products. These products have been available through the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) since September 13, 2000. MODIS snow-cover products represent potential improvement to the currently available operation products mainly because the MODIS products are global and 500-m resolution, and have the capability to separate most snow and clouds. Also the snow-mapping algorithms are automated which means that a consistent data set is generated for long-term climates studies that require snow-cover information. Extensive quality assurance (QA) information is stored with the product. The snow product suite starts with a 500-m resolution swath snow-cover map which is gridded to the Integerized Sinusoidal Grid to produce daily and eight-day composite tile products. The sequence then proceeds to a climate-modeling grid product at 5-km spatial resolution, with both daily and eight-day composite products. A case study from March 6, 2000, involving MODIS data and field and aircraft measurements, is presented. Near-term enhancements include daily snow albedo and fractional snow cover.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

Snow-Cover Variability in North America in the 2000-2001 Winter as Determined from MODIS Snow Products

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow-cover maps have been available since September 13, 2000. These products, at 500-m spatial resolution, are available through the National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center in Boulder, Colorado. By the 2001-02 winter, 5-km climate-modeling grid (CMG) products will be available for presentation of global views of snow cover and for use in climate models. All MODIS snow-cover products are produced from automated algorithms that map snow in an objective manner. In this paper, we describe the MODIS snow products, and show snow maps from the fall of 2000 in North America.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

Snow-Cover Variability in North America in the 2000-2001 Winter as Determined from MODIS Snow Products

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow-cover maps have been available since September 13, 2000. These products, at 500 m spatial resolution, are available through the National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center in Boulder, Colorado. By the 2001-02 winter, 5 km climate-modeling grid (CMG) products will be available for presentation of global views of snow cover and for use in climate models. All MODIS snow-cover products are produced from automated algorithms that map snow in an objective manner. In this paper, we describe the MODIS snow products, and show snow maps from the fall of 2000 in North America.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

Structural Analysis of Pyrolytic Graphite Optics for the HiPEP Ion Thruster

The long lifetime requirements of interplanetary exploration missions is driving the need to develop long-life components for the electric propulsion thrusters that are being targeted for these missions. One of the primary life-limiting components of ion thrusters are the optics, which are continuously eroded during the operation of the thruster. Pyrolytic graphite optics are being considered for the High Power Electric Propulsion (HiPEP) ion thruster because of their very high resistance to erosion. This paper describes the structural analysis of the HiPEP pyrolytic graphite. A description of the development of the grid model, as well as the development of the effective properties and stress concentrations in the apertured area of the grids is included. An evaluation of the use of curved grids shows that the increased stiffness (compared to flat grids) prevents intergrid impact during launch, however, the residual stresses introduced by curving the grids pushes the resulting peak stresses beyond the critical stress. As a result, flat grids are recommended as the design solution. Thermally induced grid displacements during normal thruster operation are also presented.

Meckel, Nicole↗

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Ion Engine Accelerator Grid Erosion

Structural failure of the accelerator grid in two-grid ion optics due to charge exchange ion erosion is considered one of the dominant failure modes for ion engines. A detailed examination of three accelerator grids used in long duration tests of inert gas ion thrusters was undertaken to characterize the radial mass loss distribution, the local distribution of mass loss in the erosion pattern and how it varies as the pattern evolves. The results show significant broadening of the radial profile compared to what is expected in space with significant variations from grid to grid. The local distribution of mass loss and how it varies with increasing total mass loss in the erosion pattern was also found to differ considerably among the three grids. The results indicate that the details of the erosion geometry cannot be ignored when generalizing test results or modeling grid failure to calculate useful engine service life.

Ion Engine↗

Evaluation of the Surface Representation of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a General Circulation Model

Simulated surface conditions of the Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS 5) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are examined for the contemporary Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). A surface parameterization that explicitly models surface processes including snow compaction, meltwater percolation and refreezing, and surface albedo is found to remedy an erroneous deficit in the annual net surface energy flux and provide an adequate representation of surface mass balance (SMB) in an evaluation using simulations at two spatial resolutions. The simulated 1980-2008 GrIS SMB average is 24.7+/-4.5 cm yr(- 1) water-equivalent (w.e.) at.5 degree model grid spacing, and 18.2+/-3.3 cm yr(- 1) w.e. for 2 degree grid spacing. The spatial variability and seasonal cycle of the simulation compare favorably to recent studies using regional climate models, while results from 2 degree integrations reproduce the primary features of the SMB field. In comparison to historical glaciological observations, the coarser resolution model overestimates accumulation in the southern areas of the GrIS, while the overall SMB is underestimated. These changes relate to the sensitivity of accumulation and melt to the resolution of topography. The GEOS-5 SMB fields contrast with available corresponding atmospheric models simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). It is found that only a few of the CMIP5 AGCMs examined provide significant summertime runoff, a dominant feature of the GrIS seasonal cycle. This is a condition that will need to be remedied if potential contributions to future eustatic change from polar ice sheets are to be examined with GCMs.

AGCM↗

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti: 7. Elements of Business Models for Off-Grid Solar

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-89261 for the French translation of this document.

business↗

Harnessing Virtual Power Plants Reliably: Enabling tools for increased observability, controllability, operation, and aggregation of distributed energy resources

Harnessing virtual power plants enhances the integration of distributed energy resources into utility grids for a sustainable energy future. Virtual power plants (VPPs) aggregate DERs to enhance resource adequacy and reduce emissions. U.S. utilities are exploring various technologies to manage DERs effectively. FERC Order 2222 allows DERs to participate in both wholesale and retail markets. Enhancing observability and controllability of behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs is essential for reliable grid operations. A hierarchical control architecture can improve coordination among residential energy resources. Field tests showed nearly 20% energy savings and 30% peak power reduction during grid events. Effective management of DERs requires enhanced situational awareness to prevent grid congestion. Integrating DER management systems (DERMS) with existing planning tools can improve operational security. Near-real-time grid models can validate optimal resource set points against resource uncertainty. Traditional uninterruptible power supplies (UPS) can be upgraded to support grid services and become part of VPPs. Upgrading UPS systems can reduce costs by 75% and unlock significant battery capacity. New battery management systems and grid-aware controllers are essential for optimizing UPS performance. Continued research and development are necessary to address challenges in integrating DERs into utility grids. Encouraging customer participation in pilot programs is vital for the evolution of VPPs. Here, the shift towards price-responsive DERs and VPPs is expected to enhance energy distribution efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Moderate-resolution K-band Spectroscopy of Substellar Companion κ Andromedae b

We present moderate-resolution (R ∼ 4000) K-band spectra of the “super-Jupiter,” κ Andromedae b. The data were taken with the OSIRIS integral field spectrograph at Keck Observatory. The spectra reveal resolved molecular lines from H{sub 2}O and CO, and are compared to a custom PHOENIX atmosphere model grid appropriate for young planetary-mass objects. We fit the data using a Markov chain Monte Carlo forward-modeling method. Using a combination of our moderate-resolution spectrum and low-resolution, broadband data from the literature, we derive an effective temperature of T {sub eff} = 1950–2150 K, a surface gravity of logg=3.5--4.5, and a metallicity of [M/H] = −0.2–0.0. These values are consistent with previous estimates from atmospheric modeling and the currently favored young age of the system (<50 Myr). We derive a C/O ratio of 0.70{sub −0.24}{sup +0.09} for the source, broadly consistent with the solar C/O ratio. This, coupled with the slightly subsolar metallicity, implies a composition consistent with that of the host star, and is suggestive of formation by a rapid process. The subsolar metallicity of κ Andromedae b is also consistent with predictions of formation via gravitational instability. Further constraints on formation of the companion will require measurement of the C/O ratio of κ Andromedae A. We also measure the radial velocity of κ Andromedae b for the first time, with a value of −1.4 ± 0.9 km s{sup −1} relative to the host star. We find that the derived radial velocity is consistent with the estimated high eccentricity of κ Andromedae b.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Influence of regional anthropogenic changes over Nile region on the climate system during the late Holocene (~2500 years before present)

The societal impacts of climate change during the late Holocene leads to regional anthropogenic changes over the Nile region floodplain and could have acted in tandem with natural factors like major volcanic eruptions on the regional climate system to magnify the local climatic impacts. This study aims to explore and investigate the sensitivity of climatic changes to the regional anthropogenic changes due to various factors over the Nile river floodplains during the late-Holocene (2.5K years before present). The GISS ModelE Earth system model will be used to simulate the various scenarios of regional increasing/decreasing river fraction, changes in vegetation type and cover, along with changes in land surface type against the no-changes scenario in absence of volcanic eruptions. The spatial coverage of the Nile river basin is estimated using the GIS shapefile based on elevation data from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) at 3 Arc-seconds (approx. 90-meter) horizontal resolution. The extent of flooding in the model grid (2.0°x2.5° in latitude and longitude) is estimated using the existing high-resolution (0.125°x0.125°) gridded topographic elevation information and mapped over the Nile river floodplains. This study also focuses on evaluating the NASA GISS ModelE for resolving the climate feedbacks and response on climate system due to anthropogenic changes and volcanic eruptions. It is also aimed to analyze and quantify the impact of various anthropogenic factors over the African monsoon system and rainfall over the region, which feeds the Nile River.

Anthropogenic changes↗

Impacts of Sea‐Level Rise on Hypoxia and Phytoplankton Production in Chesapeake Bay: Model Prediction and Assessment

In this study, the influence of sea-level rise (SLR) on seasonal hypoxia and phytoplankton production in Chesapeake Bay is investigated using a 3D unstructured grid model. Three SLR scenarios (0.17, 0.5, and 1.0 m) were conducted from 1991 to 1995. Results show that the summer hypoxic volume (HV) increases about 2%, 8%, and 16%, respectively, for these three scenarios, compared with Base Scenario. The contributions of physical and biological processes on the increase in the HV were analyzed. With the projected SLR, enhanced gravitational circulation transports more oxygen-rich water in the bottom layer from the mouth. However, the pycnocline moves upwards along with increasing water depth, which largely prolongs the time for dissolved oxygen (DO) to be transported to the bottom. The altered physical processes contribute greatly to a larger HV bay-wide. Besides, SLR increases the whole Bay phytoplankton production, with a larger increase in shallow areas (e.g., 53% in areas with depth <1 m under SLR of 0.5 m). Enhanced light availability is suggested to be the major driver of blooming phytoplankton under SLR in shallow areas. While increased DO production over the euphotic zone is mostly released to the atmosphere and transported downstream, the increase in settled organic matter greatly promotes DO consumption in the water column. The increased respiration is another major cause of the HV increase besides the physical contributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Regional-scale fault-to-structure earthquake simulations with the EQSIM framework: Workflow maturation and computational performance on GPU-accelerated exascale platforms

Continuous advancements in scientific and engineering understanding of earthquake phenomena, combined with the associated development of representative physics-based models, is providing a foundation for high-performance, fault-to-structure earthquake simulations. However, regional-scale applications of high-performance models have been challenged by the computational requirements at the resolutions required for engineering risk assessments. The EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) framework, a software application development under the US Department of Energy (DOE) Exascale Computing Project, is focused on overcoming the existing computational barriers and enabling routine regional-scale simulations at resolutions relevant to a breadth of engineered systems. This multidisciplinary software development—drawing upon expertise in geophysics, engineering, applied math and computer science—is preparing the advanced computational workflow necessary to fully exploit the DOE’s exaflop computer platforms coming online in the 2023 to 2024 timeframe. Achievement of the computational performance required for high-resolution regional models containing upward of hundreds of billions to trillions of model grid points requires numerical efficiency in every phase of a regional simulation. This includes run time start-up and regional model generation, effective distribution of the computational workload across thousands of computer nodes, efficient coupling of regional geophysics and local engineering models, and application-tailored highly efficient transfer, storage, and interrogation of very large volumes of simulation data. This article summarizes the most recent advancements and refinements incorporated in the workflow design for the EQSIM integrated fault-to-structure framework, which are based on extensive numerical testing across multiple graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated platforms, and demonstrates the computational performance achieved on the world’s first exaflop computer platform through representative regional-scale earthquake simulations for the San Francisco Bay Area in California, USA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Physics and Dynamics Coupling Across Scales in the Next Generation CESM: Meeting the Challenge of High-Resolution (Final Report)

This project examines physics/dynamics coupling, that is, exchange of meteorological profiles and tendencies between an atmospheric model’s dynamical core and its various physics parameterizations. Most model physics parameterizations seek to represent processes that occur on scales smaller than the smallest scale resolved by the dynamical core. As a consequence a key conceptual aspect of parameterizations is an assumption about the subgrid variability of quantities such as temperature, humidity or vertical wind. Most existing parameterizations of processes such as turbulence, convection, cloud, and gravity wave drag make relatively ad hoc assumptions about this variability and are forced to introduce empirical parameters, i.e., “tuning knobs” to obtain realistic simulations. These knobs make systematic dependences on model grid size difficult to quantify.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling Low Intensity Fires: Lessons Learned from 2012 RxCADRE

Coupled fire-atmosphere models are increasingly being used to study low-intensity fires, such as those that are used in prescribed fire applications. Thus, the need arises to evaluate these models for their ability to accurately represent fire spread in marginal burning conditions. In this study, wind and fuel data collected during the Prescribed Fire Combustion and Atmospheric Dynamics Research Experiments (RxCADRE) fire campaign were used to generate initial and boundary conditions for coupled fire-atmosphere simulations. We present a novel method to obtain fuels representation at the model grid scale using a combination of imagery, machine learning, and field sampling. Several methods to generate wind input conditions for the model from eight different anemometer measurements are explored. We find a strong sensitivity of fire outcomes to wind inputs. This result highlights the critical need to include variable wind fields as inputs in modeling marginal fire conditions. This work highlights the complexities of comparing physics-based model results against observations, which are more acute in marginal burning conditions, where stronger sensitivities to local variability in wind and fuels drive fire outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗