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At least 343 records · Page 19

An Extended MHD Study of the 16 October 2015 MMS Diffusion Region Crossing

The Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission has given us unprecedented access to high cadence particle and field data of magnetic reconnection at Earth's magnetopause. MMS first passed very near an X-line on 16 October 2015, the Burch event, and has since observed multiple X-line crossings. Subsequent 3-D particle-in-cell (PIC) modeling efforts of and comparison with the Burch event have revealed a host of novel physical insights concerning magnetic reconnection, turbulence-induced particle mixing, and secondary instabilities. In this study, we employ the Gkeyll simulation framework to study the Burch event with different classes of extended, multifluid magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), including models that incorporate important kinetic effects, such as the electron pressure tensor, with physics-based closure relations designed to capture linear Landau damping. Such fluid modeling approaches are able to capture different levels of kinetic physics in global simulations and are generally less costly than fully kinetic PIC. Herein we focus on the additional physics one can capture with increasing levels of fluid closure refinement via comparison with MMS data and existing PIC simulations. In particular, we find that the ten-moment model well captures the agyrotropic structure of the pressure tensor in the vicinity of the X-line and the magnitude of anisotropic electron heating observed in MMS and PIC simulations. However, the ten-moment model is found to have difficulty resolving the lower hybrid drift instability, which plays a fundamental role in heating and mixing electrons in the current layer.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Report on General Hydrogen Safety

Hydrogen is an important resource for many different industries throughout the world, including refining, manufacturing, and as a direct energy source. Hydrogen production, through methods such as steam methane reforming, has been developed over several decades. There is a large global demand for hydrogen from these industries and safe production and distribution are paramount for hydrogen systems. Codes and standards have been developed to reduce the risk associated with hydrogen accidents to the public. These codes and standards are similar to those in other industries in which there is inherent risk to the public, such as gasoline and natural gas production and distribution. Although there will always be a risk to the public in these types of fuels, the codes and standards are developed to reduce the likelihood of an accident occurring and reduce the severity of impact, should one occur. This report reviews the current state of hydrogen in the United States and outlines the codes and standards that ensure safe operation of hydrogen systems. The total hydrogen demand and use in different industries is identified. Additionally, the current landscape of hydrogen production and fueling stations in the United States is outlined. The safety of hydrogen systems is discussed through an overview of the purpose, methods, and content included in codes and standards. As outlined in this safety overview, the risk to the public in operation of hydrogen generation facilities and fueling stations is reduced through implementation of appropriate measures. Codes, such as NFPA 2, ensure that the risk associated with a hydrogen system is no greater than the risk presented by gasoline refueling stations.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Life Cycle Inventories and Data Gap Analysis for Rare Earth Elements: Neodymium and Dysprosium from Mining to Magnets

The United States demand for Neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) magnets, produced from rare earth elements (REEs) such as (Nd) and Dysprosium (Dy), far exceeds its nascent domestic production capacity, rendering it reliant on vulnerable global supply chains dominated by China. To guide research and development investments in securing U.S. REE supply, defensible benchmark metrics across environmental, economic, and social dimensions are needed. In this study, we built globally-representative, process-based cradle-to-cradle life cycle inventories for Nd and Dy in NdFeB magnets lifecycles, encompassing primary material acquisition, beneficiation, smelting and refining, metal processing, specialty alloy and chemical transformation, subcomponent manufacturing, consumer application (use phase) and end-of-life management. We carried out detailed literature review, and applied process engineering principles to build industry-representative upscaled life cycle inventories for both metals. We used these models to conduct bottom-up literature review and gap analysis on existing literature, compilation of data sources for each life cycle stage (and transformations where necessary), and a preliminary technoeconomic analysis (TEA)/life cycle costing analysis (LCCA). Findings from this work emphasize the need for metal specific, representative REE LCIs to establish robust benchmarks for advancing sustainable REE technologies and guiding R&D in REE supply chains.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Lunar Mass Spectrometer experiment.

The features of the Lunar Mass Spectrometer (LMS), the purpose of which will be to determine the global distributions and the diurnal variations of the lunar atmosphere from the lunar surface, are outlined. Particular attention is given to its configuration, design, and latest engineering refinements. A brief description is also given of the experiment operation and data return.

Ormsby, R. D.↗

Finite element solution techniques for large-scale problems in computational fluid dynamics

Element-by-element approximate factorization, implicit-explicit and adaptive implicit-explicit approximation procedures are presented for the finite-element formulations of large-scale fluid dynamics problems. The element-by-element approximation scheme totally eliminates the need for formation, storage and inversion of large global matrices. Implicit-explicit schemes, which are approximations to implicit schemes, substantially reduce the computational burden associated with large global matrices. In the adaptive implicit-explicit scheme, the implicit elements are selected dynamically based on element level stability and accuracy considerations. This scheme provides implicit refinement where it is needed. The methods are applied to various problems governed by the convection-diffusion and incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. In all cases studied, the results obtained are indistinguishable from those obtained by the implicit formulations.

Liou, J.↗

Potential Landing Sites in Margaritifer Basin, Margaritifer Sinus, Mars

The proposed landing sites occur within a portion of the Martian highlands preserving a long and complex history of geologic activity. Observation and sampling of materials emplaced within Margaritifer Basin during the late-Noachian and early-Hesperian should lead to a refined understanding of early Mars climate during of the formation of valley networks and would help calibrate crater production models. Collectively, this information would help constrain the global water cycle. Finally, landing on the materials forming the confluence plain suggests a diverse assemblage of water-lain materials may be directly sampled and could help evaluate the possibility of past biotic activity on Mars. Distinction between the better of the two sites awaits further definition of the allowable latitude band for landing and analysis of radar and higher resolution MGS TES and MOC data.

Grant, John A.↗

Radiometric Calibration of the Earth Observing System's Imaging Sensors

The work on the grant was mainly directed towards developing new, accurate, redundant methods for the in-flight, absolute radiometric calibration of satellite multispectral imaging systems and refining the accuracy of methods already in use. Initially the work was in preparation for the calibration of MODIS and HIRIS (before the development of that sensor was canceled), with the realization it would be applicable to most imaging multi- or hyper-spectral sensors provided their spatial or spectral resolutions were not too coarse. The work on the grant involved three different ground-based, in-flight calibration methods reflectance-based radiance-based and diffuse-to-global irradiance ratio used with the reflectance-based method. This continuing research had the dual advantage of: (1) developing several independent methods to create the redundancy that is essential for the identification and hopefully the elimination of systematic errors; and (2) refining the measurement techniques and algorithms that can be used not only for improving calibration accuracy but also for the reverse process of retrieving ground reflectances from calibrated remote-sensing data. The grant also provided the support necessary for us to embark on other projects such as the ratioing radiometer approach to on-board calibration (this has been further developed by SBRS as the 'solar diffuser stability monitor' and is incorporated into the most important on-board calibration system for MODIS)- another example of the work, which was a spin-off from the grant funding, was a study of solar diffuser materials. Journal citations, titles and abstracts of publications authored by faculty, staff, and students are also attached.

Slater, Philip N.↗

Quantization of systems with temporally varying discretization. I. Evolving Hilbert spaces

A temporally varying discretization often features in discrete gravitational systems and appears in lattice field theory models subject to a coarse graining or refining dynamics. To better understand such discretization changing dynamics in the quantum theory, an according formalism for constrained variational discrete systems is constructed. While this paper focuses on global evolution moves and, for simplicity, restricts to flat configuration spaces R{sup N}, a Paper II [P. A. Höhn, “Quantization of systems with temporally varying discretization. II. Local evolution moves,” J. Math. Phys., e-print http://arxiv.org/abs/arXiv:1401.7731 [gr-qc].] discusses local evolution moves. In order to link the covariant and canonical picture, the dynamics of the quantum states is generated by propagators which satisfy the canonical constraints and are constructed using the action and group averaging projectors. This projector formalism offers a systematic method for tracing and regularizing divergences in the resulting state sums. Non-trivial coarse graining evolution moves lead to non-unitary, and thus irreversible, projections of physical Hilbert spaces and Dirac observables such that these concepts become evolution move dependent on temporally varying discretizations. The formalism is illustrated in a toy model mimicking a “creation from nothing.” Subtleties arising when applying such a formalism to quantum gravity models are discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Refinement of Protocols for Measuring the Apparent Optical Properties of Seawater

Ocean color satellite missions, like the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) or the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) projects, are tasked with acquiring a global ocean color data set, validating and monitoring the accuracy and quality of the data, processing the radiometric data into geophysical units using a set of atmospheric and bio-optical algorithms, and distributing the final products to the scientific community. The long-standing requirement of the SeaWiFS Project, for example, is to produce spectral water-leaving radiances, LW(lambda), to within 5% absolute (lambda denotes wavelength) and chlorophyll a concentrations to within 35% (Hooker and Esaias 1993), and most ocean color sensors have the same or similar requirements. Although a diverse set of activities are required to ensure the accuracy requirements are met (Hooker and McClain 2000), the perspective here is with field observations. The accurate determination of upper ocean apparent optical properties (AOPs) is essential for the vicarious calibration of ocean color data and the validation of the derived data products, because the sea-truth measurements are used to evaluate the satellite observations (Hooker and McClain 2000). The uncertainties with in situ AOP measurements have various sources: a) the sampling procedures used in the field, including the environmental conditions encountered; b) the absolute characterization of the radiometers in the laboratory; c) the conversion of the light signals to geophysical units in a processing scheme, and d) the stability of the radiometers in the harsh environment they are subjected to during transport and use. Assuming ideal environmental conditions, so this aspect can be neglected, the SeaWiFS ground-truth uncertainty budget can only be satisfied if each uncertainty is on the order of 1-2%, or what is generally referred to as 1% radiometry. In recent years, progress has been made in estimating the magnitude of some of these uncertainties and in defining procedures for minimizing them. For the SeaWiFS Project, the first step was to convene a workshop to draft the SeaWiFS Ocean Optics Protocols (hereafter referred to as the Protocols). The Protocols initially adhered to the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) sampling procedures (JGOFS 1991) and defined the standards for optical measurements to be used in SeaWiFS calibration and validation activities (Mueller and Austin 1992). Over time, the Protocols were revised (Mueller and Austin 1995), and then recurringly updated on essentially an annual basis (Mueller 2000, 2002, and 2003) as part of the Sensor Inter-comparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) project. 98

Hooker, Stanford B.↗

Mineralogical, Elemental, and Tomographic Reconnaissance Investigation for CLPS (METRIC): A Proposed Mission to the Lunar South Pole-Aitken Basin

The global Lunar Magma Ocean (LMO) hypothesis is based on analyses of ferroan anorthosites (FAN), magnesian plutonic rocks (Mg-suite), and KREEPy (Potassium - K; Rare Earth Elements - REE; Phosphorous - P) material present at the Apollo landing sites and the assumed global distribution of these lithologies. However, orbital spacecraft data over the last two decades have highlighted that the location of the Apollo missions within and near the Procellarum KREEP Terrane (PKT) is compositionally anomalous and not representative of the entire lunar surface and suggests that Apollo samples provide a biased view of the Moon. Further, meteorites, which originate from random areas on the lunar surface, including those not visited by Apollo, Luna, or Chang’E-5, provide complementary datasets that reveal a more complex lunar formation and evolution than the simple LMO onion skin model. While many recent investigations support and refine the LMO model, other recent studies have questioned whether this mechanism alone is responsible for the primordial differentiation of the Moon. Thus, relating the distinct and asymmetrically distributed geochemical terranes on the Moon, especially KREEP which is a predicted global LMO product, to lunar formation and differentiation remains a fundamental goal of lunar science. The South Pole-Aitken (SPA) impact carved a two-and-a-half thousand-kilometer basin into the Moon’s ancient crust, excavating material from as deep as the upper mantle. Orbital remote sensing of the basin indicates compositions with elevated thorium (Th) contents and unique mineralogies that provide a window into early lunar structure and LMO processes. We propose to land a powerful characterization laboratory at Birkeland crater on the far side of the Moon–where Th-rich SPA ejecta have been re-exposed near the surface–in order to address outstanding questions about the evolution of the Moon.

K M Cannon↗

Diagnosing Tropical Divergent Circulations From Satellite-Derived Diabatic Forcing and Variational Integral Constraints

Large-scale divergent circulations are part of the atmospheric dynamic response to diabatic heating from condensation, radiative processes, and surface energy fluxes. Vertical motion and the associated divergent wind is thus intimately tied to the hydrologic cycle and the global beat balance. Despite its importance, the divergent circulation is too small in comparison to the rotational flow to measure directly with any accuracy. Vertical motions are recovered diagnostically from reanalyses and, as such, are subject to shortcomings in model physics, numerics, and data availability. While reanalysis estimates of tropical divergent circulations are much improved over those from the Global Weather Experiment, there are still substantial differences between products from operational centers. This is because these circulations are still forced largely by model physics and only secondarily by observations. In order to produce a refined estimate of tropical divergence and its interannual variability we have used a number of remotely-sensed data sets along with variational constraints to improve upon reanalysis estimates. Among these are: precipitation from SSM/I and GPCP, TOVS Path-A vertical cloud distributions; ISCCP radiative cooling rates; TOA radiative fluxes from ERBS, surface radiative fluxes from the SRB project, and surface latent and sensible flux estimates from SSM/I. The TOVS Path-A data constrain the divergent outflow in precipitating regions to have the same vertical structure as observed cloudiness. Using integral constraints for moisture, heat, and mass balance, we retrieve consistent divergent wind flows. We examine the ability of this type analysis to capture regional details of ENSO related perturbations to the divergent wind and associated tropical energy balance. Precipitation from satellite is found to be the major constraint in supplying this horizontal structure. We also consider the ability of this analysis to quantify integrated (land vs. ocean) fluctuations in the global monsoonal flow and energy balance. This depends, of course, on the error characteristics of the data constraints. Some estimate of these properties and their relative importance is provided.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Modeling surface water dynamics in the Amazon Basin using MOSART-Inundation v1.0: impacts of geomorphological parameters and river flow representation

Abstract. In the Amazon Basin, floodplain inundation is a key component of surface water dynamics and plays an important role in water, energy and carbon cycles. The Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART) was extended with a macroscale inundation scheme for representing floodplain inundation. The extended model, named MOSART-Inundation, was used to simulate surface hydrology of the entire Amazon Basin. Previous hydrologic modeling studies in the Amazon Basin identified and addressed a few challenges in simulating surface hydrology of this basin, including uncertainties of floodplain topography and channel geometry, and the representation of river flow in reaches with mild slopes. This study further addressed four aspects of these challenges. First, the spatial variability of vegetation-caused biases embedded in the HydroSHEDS digital elevation model (DEM) data was explicitly addressed. A vegetation height map of about 1 km resolution and a land cover dataset of about 90 m resolution were used in a DEM correction procedure that resulted in an average elevation reduction of 13.2 m for the entire basin and led to evident changes in the floodplain topography. Second, basin-wide empirical formulae for channel cross-sectional dimensions were refined for various subregions to improve the representation of spatial variability in channel geometry. Third, the channel Manning roughness coefficient was allowed to vary with the channel depth, as the effect of riverbed resistance on river flow generally declines with increasing river size. Lastly, backwater effects were accounted for to better represent river flow in mild-slope reaches. The model was evaluated against in situ streamflow records and remotely sensed Envisat altimetry data and Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites (GIEMS) inundation data. In a sensitivity study, seven simulations were compared to evaluate the impacts of the five modeling aspects addressed in this study. The comparisons showed that representing floodplain inundation could significantly improve the simulated streamflow and river stages. Refining floodplain topography, channel geometry and Manning roughness coefficients, as well as accounting for backwater effects had notable impacts on the simulated surface water dynamics in the Amazon Basin. The understanding obtained in this study could be helpful in improving modeling of surface hydrology in basins with evident inundation, especially at regional to continental scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Climate impact of a regional nuclear weapons exchange: An improved assessment based on detailed source calculations

In this paper, we present a multi-scale study examining the impact of a regional exchange of nuclear weapons on global climate. Our models investigate multiple phases of the effects of nuclear weapons usage, including growth and rise of the nuclear fireball, ignition and spread of the induced firestorm, and comprehensive Earth system modeling of the oceans, land, ice, and atmosphere. This study follows from the scenario originally envisioned by Robock et al. (2007a), based on the analysis of Toon et al. (2007), which assumes a regional exchange between India and Pakistan of fifty 15-kiloton weapons detonated by each side. We expand this scenario by modeling the processes that lead to production of black carbon, in order to refine the black carbon forcing estimates of these previous studies. When the Earth system model is initiated with 5 × 10 9 kg of black carbon in the upper troposphere (approximately 9 to 13 km), the impact on climate variables such as global temperature and precipitation in our simulations is similar to that predicted by previously published work. However, while our thorough simulations of the firestorm produce about 3.7 × 10 9 kg of black carbon, we find that the vast majority of the black carbon never reaches an altitude above weather systems (approximately 12 km). Therefore, our Earth system model simulations conducted with model-informed atmospheric distributions of black carbon produce significantly lower global climatic impacts than assessed in prior studies, as the carbon at lower altitudes is more quickly removed from the atmosphere. In addition, our model ensembles indicate that statistically significant effects on global surface temperatures are limited to the first 5 years and are much smaller in magnitude than those shown in earlier works. None of the simulations produced a nuclear winter effect. We find that the effects on global surface temperatures are not uniform and are concentrated primarily around the highest arctic latitudes, dramatically reducing the global impact on human health and agriculture compared with that reported by earlier studies. Lastly, our analysis demonstrates that the probability of significant global cooling from a limited exchange scenario as envisioned in the previous studies is highly unlikely, a conclusion supported by examination of natural analogs, such as large forest fires and volcanic eruptions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Explainable multi-fidelity Bayesian neural network for distribution system state estimation

Distribution System State Estimation (DSSE) is frequently constrained by limited real-time measurements, the uncertainties introduced by distributed energy resources, and the presence of bad data. To address them, this paper proposes an enhanced Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Neural Network (MFBNN) DSSE approach. A low-fidelity layer based on a Deep Neural Network (DNN) is first pre-trained on pseudo-measurement data to learn fundamental state features. Subsequently, a high-fidelity Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) layer leverages limited but high-quality real-time measurements to refine these features, thereby achieving accurate DSSE. Additionally, the deep SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) is developed to quantify the influence of measurement data on DSSE through dual perspectives of global feature importance and local nodal contributions, establishing a hierarchical explainability framework for machine learning-based DSSE. Comparative studies conducted on the IEEE 13-bus system and a real-world 2135-node system from Dominion Energy demonstrate that the proposed method excels in estimation accuracy, even under situations of high noise levels, bad data, and missing data. Further comparisons with Weighted Least Squares (WLS) and other machine learning-based DSSE approaches verify that the proposed framework offers higher accuracy, improved interpretability, and enhanced robustness.

Bad data↗

Studying language evolution in the age of big data

The increasing availability of large digital corpora of cross-linguistic data is revolutionizing many branches of linguistics. Overall, it has triggered a shift of attention from detailed questions about individual features to more global patterns amenable to rigorous, but statistical, analyses. This engenders an approach based on successive approximations where models with simplified assumptions result in frameworks that can then be systematically refined, always keeping explicit the methodological commitments and the assumed prior knowledge. Therefore, they can resolve disputes between competing frameworks quantitatively by separating the support provided by the data from the underlying assumptions. These methods, though, often appear as a ‘black box’ to traditional practitioners. In fact, the switch to a statistical view complicates comparison of the results from these newer methods with traditional understanding, sometimes leading to misinterpretation and overly broad claims. We describe here this evolving methodological shift, attributed to the advent of big, but often incomplete and poorly curated, data, emphasizing the underlying similarity of the newer quantitative to the traditional comparative methods and discussing when and to what extent the former have advantages over the latter. In this review, we cover briefly both randomization tests for detecting patterns in a largely model-independent fashion and phylolinguistic methods for a more model-based analysis of these patterns. We foresee a fruitful division of labor between the ability to computationally process large volumes of data and the trained linguistic insight declaring worthy prior commitments and interesting hypotheses in need of comparison.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

EAGLES Liquid Cloud Testbed Large Eddy Simulation Library (v3)

This library consists of large eddy simulation (LES) model output using the PINACLES codebase coupled to the Hebrew University Fast Spectral Bin Microphysics scheme representing shallow, liquid phase clouds from four global liquid cloud testbed regions. This data is particularly suitable for examining interactions among cloud, aerosol, and turbulence in warm, boundary-layer clouds and for developing, assessing and refining parameterizations for coarser-scale models.

Kaul, Colleen M↗

BLADE: An Automated Framework for Classifying Light Curves from the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Fireball Database

Fireballs (bolides) are high-energy luminous phenomena produced when meteoroids and small asteroids enter Earth’s atmosphere at hypersonic speeds, often resulting in fragmentation or complete disintegration accompanied by significant energy release. The resulting bolide light curves capture temporal brightness variations as these objects traverse increasingly dense atmospheric layers, providing essential information on meteoroid entry dynamics, fragmentation behavior, and atmospheric energy deposition processes. The Center for Near-Earth Object Studies’ (CNEOS) continuously expanding fireball database offers a globally comprehensive archive of bolide events, including light curves and associated metadata. Events associated with infrasound detections allow direct correlations between acoustic signatures and light curve features, therefore enabling detailed analyses of fragmentation dynamics and energy deposition. Here, we introduce Bolide Light-curve Analysis and Discrimination Explorer (BLADE), a robust and high-fidelity framework specifically designed to analyze bolide light curves for objects detected from space. BLADE incorporates a processing pipeline integrating Savitzky–Golay filtering, prominence-based peak detection, and gradient analysis, enabling systematic identification and classification of fragmentation events and their associated energy release characteristics. Preliminary results demonstrate that BLADE reliably distinguishes distinct bolide behaviors, providing an objective, scalable methodology for characterization and analysis of large bolide light curve data sets. This foundational work establishes a novel pathway for advanced bolide research, with promising applications in planetary defense and global atmospheric monitoring. Future research should adopt an integrative approach combining CNEOS optical data with complementary infrasound measurements, further clarifying relationships between bolide energy deposition and acoustic signatures, thus refining our understanding of meteoroid and asteroid atmospheric entry processes.

Asteroids↗

Local grid refinement for transonic flow problems

The present use of locally refined Cartesian grids to solve transonic flow problems about three-dimensional aircraft configurations obviates surface-conforming grid generation through an embedding of surface-geometry paneling in the grid. Accurate resolution of flow close to the boundary, and in regions with strong velocity gradients, is achieved via hierarchical local refinement which subdivides a given grid cell into eight cells. Fast and reliable convergence is obtained by combining several preconditioners and damping strategies. Methods are suggested for preclusion of global convergence problems.

Melvin, Robin G.↗