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At least 343 records · Page 19

Machine Learning Enabled Quantitative Risk Assessment of Aerial Wildfire Response

Aerial wildfire operations are high risk and account for a large number of firefighter deaths. Increasing intensity of wildfires is driving a surge in aerial operations, while simultaneously there is growing interest in improving system safety and performance. In this work, wildfire aviation mishaps documented using the SAFECOM system are analyzed using a previously developed framework for hazard extraction and analysis of trends (HEAT). Hazards and specific failure modes are extracted from the narrative data in SAFECOM forms using natural language processing techniques. Metrics for each hazard are calculated, including frequency, rate, and severity. We examine whether these metrics change over time, and whether they are related to metadata, such as region and aircraft type. The results of the hazard analysis are presented in a risk matrix, identifying the highest and lowest risk hazards based on rate of occurrence and average severity. Results identify jumper operations hazards as high-risk, in addition to bucket drop failures, cargo let down failures, and severe weather as medium risk.

machine learning↗

Gear Crack Propagation Path Studies-- Guidelines Developed for Ultrasafe Design

Effective gear designs balance strength, durability, reliability, size, weight, and cost. However, unexpected gear failures may occur even with adequate gear tooth design. To design an extremely safe system, the designer must ask and address the question "What happens when a failure occurs?" With regard to gear-tooth bending fatigue, tooth or rim fractures may occur. For aircraft, a crack that propagated through a rim would be catastrophic, leading to the disengagement of a rotor or propeller, the loss of an aircraft, and possible fatalities. This failure mode should be avoided. However, a crack that propagated through a tooth might or might not be catastrophic, depending on the design and operating conditions. Also, early warning of this failure mode might be possible because of advances in modern diagnostic systems. An analysis was performed at the NASA Glenn Research Center to develop design guidelines to prevent catastrophic rim fracture failure modes in the event of gear-tooth bending fatigue. The finite element method was used with principles of linear elastic fracture mechanics. Crack propagation paths were predicted for a variety of gear tooth and rim configurations. The effects of rim and web thicknesses, initial crack locations, and gear-tooth geometry factors such as diametral pitch, number of teeth, pitch radius, and tooth pressure angle were considered. Design maps of tooth and rim fracture modes, including the effects of gear geometry, applied load, crack size, and material properties were developed. The occurrence of rim fractures significantly increased as the backup ratio (rim thickness divided by tooth height) decreased. The occurrence of rim fractures also increased as the initial crack location was moved down the root of the tooth. Increased rim and web compliance increased the occurrence of rim fractures. For gears with constant-pitch radii, coarser-pitch teeth increased the occurrence of tooth fractures over rim fractures. Also, 25 degree pressure angle teeth increased the occurrence of tooth fractures over rim fractures in comparison to 20 pressure angle teeth. For gears with a constant number of teeth or for gears with constant diametral pitch, varying size had little or no effect on crack propagation paths.

Lewicki, David G.↗

Viscoplastic analysis of an experimental cylindrical thrust chamber liner

A viscoplastic stress-strain analysis of an experimental cylindrical thrust chamber is presented. A viscoelastic constitutive model incorporating a single internal state variable that represents kinematic hardening was employed to investigate whether such a viscoplastic model could predict the experimentally observed behavior of the thrust chamber. Two types of loading cycles were considered: a short cycle of 3.5-s duration that corresponded to the experiments, and an extended loading cycle of 485.1 s duration that is typical of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) operating cycle. The analysis qualitatively replicated the deformation behavior of the component as observed in experiments designed to simulate SSME operating conditions. The analysis also showed that the mode and location of failure in the component may depend on the loading cycle. The results indicate that using viscoplastic models for structural analysis can lead to a more realistic life assessment of thrust chambers.

Arya, Vinod K.↗

Ares-I-X Vehicle Preliminary Range Safety Malfunction Turn Analysis

Ares-I-X is the designation given to the flight test version of the Ares-I rocket (also known as the Crew Launch Vehicle - CLV) being developed by NASA. As part of the preliminary flight plan approval process for the test vehicle, a range safety malfunction turn analysis was performed to support the launch area risk assessment and vehicle destruct criteria development processes. Several vehicle failure scenarios were identified which could cause the vehicle trajectory to deviate from its normal flight path, and the effects of these failures were evaluated with an Ares-I-X 6 degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) digital simulation, using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories Version 2 (POST2) simulation framework. The Ares-I-X simulation analysis provides output files containing vehicle state information, which are used by other risk assessment and vehicle debris trajectory simulation tools to determine the risk to personnel and facilities in the vicinity of the launch area at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and to develop the vehicle destruct criteria used by the flight test range safety officer. The simulation analysis approach used for this study is described, including descriptions of the failure modes which were considered and the underlying assumptions and ground rules of the study, and preliminary results are presented, determined by analysis of the trajectory deviation of the failure cases, compared with the expected vehicle trajectory.

Beaty, James R.↗

Operations analysis (study 2.1). Contingency analysis

Future operational concepts for the space transportation system were studied in terms of space shuttle upper stage failure contingencies possible during deployment, retrieval, or space servicing of automated satellite programs. Problems anticipated during mission planning were isolated using a modified 'fault tree' technique, normally used in safety analyses. A comprehensive space servicing hazard analysis is presented which classifies possible failure modes under the catagories of catastrophic collision, failure to rendezvous and dock, servicing failure, and failure to undock. The failure contingencies defined are to be taken into account during design of the upper stage.

Source record↗

Safety considerations in the design and operation of large wind turbines

The engineering and safety techniques used to assure the reliable and safe operation of large wind turbine generators utilizing the Mod 2 Wind Turbine System Program as an example is described. The techniques involve a careful definition of the wind turbine's natural and operating environments, use of proven structural design criteria and analysis techniques, an evaluation of potential failure modes and hazards, and use of a fail safe and redundant component engineering philosophy. The role of an effective quality assurance program, tailored to specific hardware criticality, and the checkout and validation program developed to assure system integrity are described.

Reilly, D. H.↗

System safety in Stirling engine development

The DOE/NASA Stirling Engine Project Office has required that contractors make safety considerations an integral part of all phases of the Stirling engine development program. As an integral part of each engine design subtask, analyses are evolved to determine possible modes of failure. The accepted system safety analysis techniques (Fault Tree, FMEA, Hazards Analysis, etc.) are applied in various degrees of extent at the system, subsystem and component levels. The primary objectives are to identify critical failure areas, to enable removal of susceptibility to such failures or their effects from the system and to minimize risk.

Bankaitis, H.↗

Specimen and Holder for Sliding-Mode Fatigue Tests

Single-ended notch design facilitates accurate measurements of crack progression. Novel test specimen and novel loading fixture and fracture testing of materials under Mode II, or sliding-mode, loading. Testing required for analysis of failures in structural materials, bearings, and the like.

Buzzard, R. J.↗

Space Shuttle 2 Advanced Space Transportation System. Volume 1: Executive Summary

An investigation into the feasibility of establishing a second generation space transportation system is summarized. Incorporating successful systems from the Space Shuttle and technological advances made since its conception, the second generation shuttle was designed to be a lower-cost, reliable system which would guarantee access to space well into the next century. A fully reusable, all-liquid propellant booster/orbiter combination using parallel burn was selected as the base configuration. Vehicle characteristics were determined from NASA ground rules and optimization evaluations. The launch profile was constructed from particulars of the vehicle design and known orbital requirements. A stability and control analysis was performed for the landing phase of the orbiter's flight. Finally, a preliminary safety analysis was performed to indicate possible failure modes and consequences.

Adinaro, James N.↗

User's guide to the Reliability Estimation System Testbed (REST)

The Reliability Estimation System Testbed is an X-window based reliability modeling tool that was created to explore the use of the Reliability Modeling Language (RML). RML was defined to support several reliability analysis techniques including modularization, graphical representation, Failure Mode Effects Simulation (FMES), and parallel processing. These techniques are most useful in modeling large systems. Using modularization, an analyst can create reliability models for individual system components. The modules can be tested separately and then combined to compute the total system reliability. Because a one-to-one relationship can be established between system components and the reliability modules, a graphical user interface may be used to describe the system model. RML was designed to permit message passing between modules. This feature enables reliability modeling based on a run time simulation of the system wide effects of a component's failure modes. The use of failure modes effects simulation enhances the analyst's ability to correctly express system behavior when using the modularization approach to reliability modeling. To alleviate the computation bottleneck often found in large reliability models, REST was designed to take advantage of parallel processing on hypercube processors.

Nicol, David M.↗

Algorithms for real-time fault detection of the Space Shuttle Main Engine

This paper reports on the results of a program to develop and demonstrate concepts related to a realtime health management system (HMS) for the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). An HMS framework was developed on the basis of a top-down analysis of the current rocket engine failure modes and the engine monitoring requirements. One result of Phase I of this program was the identification of algorithmic approaches for detecting failures of the SSME. Three different analytical techniques were developed which demonstrated the capability to detect failures significantly earlier than the existing redlines. Based on promising initial results, Phase II of the program was initiated to further validate and refine the fault detection strategy on a large data base of 140 SSME test firings, and implement the resultant algorithms in real time. The paper begins with an overview of the refined algorithms used to detect failures during SSME start-up and main-stage operation. Results of testing these algorithms on a data base of nominal and off-nominal SSME test firings is discussed. The paper concludes with a discussion of the performance of the algorithms operating on a real-time computer system.

Ruiz, C. A.↗

Mechanical properties of lunar regolith and lunar soil simulant

Through the Surveyor 3 and 7, and Apollo 11-17 missions a knowledge of the mechanical properties of Lunar regolith were gained. These properties, including material cohesion, friction, in-situ density, grain-size distribution and shape, and porosity, were determined by indirect means of trenching, penetration, and vane shear testing. Several of these properties were shown to be significantly different from those of terrestrial soils, such as an interlocking cohesion and tensile strength formed in the absence of moisture and particle cementation. To characterize the strength and deformation properties of Lunar regolith experiments have been conducted on a lunar soil simulant at various initial densities, fabric arrangements, and composition. These experiments included conventional triaxial compression and extension, direct tension, and combined tension-shear. Experiments have been conducted at low levels of effective confining stress. External conditions such as membrane induced confining stresses, end platten friction and material self weight have been shown to have a dramatic effect on the strength properties at low levels of confining stress. The solution has been to treat these external conditions and the specimen as a full-fledged boundary value problem rather than the idealized elemental cube of mechanics. Centrifuge modeling allows for the study of Lunar soil-structure interaction problems. In recent years centrifuge modeling has become an important tool for modeling processes that are dominated by gravity and for verifying analysis procedures and studying deformation and failure modes. Centrifuge modeling is well established for terrestrial enginering and applies equally as well to Lunar engineering. A brief review of the experiments is presented in graphic and outline form.

Steven W Perkins↗

Facesheet Wrinkling in Sandwich Structures

The purpose of this paper is to provide a concise summary of the state-of-the-art for the analysis of the facesheet wrinkling mode of failure in sandwich structures. This document is not an exhaustive review of the published research related to facesheet wrinkling. Instead, a smaller number of key papers are reviewed in order to provide designers and analysts with a working understanding of the state-of-the-art. Designers and analysts should use this survey to guide their judgement when deciding which one of a wide variety of available facesheet wrinkling design formulas is applicable to a specific design problem.

Ley, Robert P.↗

SafeAeroBERT: Towards a Safety-Informed Aerospace-Specific Language Model

As aviation systems continue to operate with high traffic, large amounts of documents containing safety-relevant data continue to be generated via reporting systems such as the ASRS. Advanced natural language processing techniques, specifically pre-trained language models, have shown great success in domain-specific applications; however, the text in aviation safety reports is inundated with jargon and thus not fully utilized by general pre-trained models. In this research, we work towards developing a safety-informed aerospace-specific language model by pre-training a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformer (BERT) model on reports from the Aviation Safety Reporting System and the National Transportation Safety Board. The resulting model, called SafeAeroBERT, is fine-tuned for the specific task of document classification, and can be further tuned for named-entity recognition, relation detection, information retrieval, and summarization. Results from the classification task are compared between SafeAeroBERT, the base BERT, and SciBERT models and show SafeAeroBERT outperforms the general BERT and SciBERT on classifying reports about human factors, aircraft, and procedure. SafeAeroBERT can be used on custom tasks, not limited to document classification, and is intended to aid an intelligent knowledge manager for safety report repositories.

Aviation↗

A review of modern approaches to fatigue reliability analysis and design

Metal fatigue is a principal mode of failure in components of mechanical systems. But fatigue design factors (e.g., stress, fatigue strength) are subject to considerable uncertainty. Therefore, relative to fatigue, reliability methods are appropriate for purposes of safety checking of designs, risk assessment, failure analysis, and development of code statements. Described herein are four methods which can be effectively employed for fatigue reliability analysis, (1) Monte Carlo methods, (2) the lognormal format, (3) the Weibull format, (4) the Rackwitz-Fiessler algorithm. Examples of the application of each are presented. In summary, no general reliability method can be recommended for all situations involving fatigue. The approach has to be tailored to the problem.

Wirsching, P. H.↗