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At least 343 records · Page 19

A triangular covariance factorization for sequential filtering algorithms

A method for propagating the square-root of the state error covariance matrix in lower triangular UDU form is described. This update method can be combined with the UDU transformation used by Bierman to obtain the equations of a square-root free triangular estimation algorithm. The method is compared with the state transition matrix time update algorithm on the basis of integration accuracy, computational efficiency and storage requirements.

Tapley, B. D.↗

Atmospheric microwave refractivity and refraction

The atmospheric refractivity can be expressed as a function of temperature, pressure, water vapor content, and operating frequency. Based on twenty-year meteorological data, statistics of the atmospheric refractivity were obtained. These statistics were used to estimate the variation of dispersion, attenuation, and refraction effects on microwave and millimeter wave signals propagating along atmospheric paths. Bending angle, elevation angle error, and range error were also developed for an exponentially tapered, spherical atmosphere.

Yu, E.↗

Signal-to-noise considerations for sky-subtracted CCD data

The standard equation for calculating the uncertainty of photometry obtained from CCDs does not correctly consider the random errors, or 'noise', introduced into observations by procedures used in reducing the data. This paper presents a thorough derivation of the theoretical error equation that considers the contributions from all internal noise sources in the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of a sky-subtracted image. A simplified version used for estimating the internal errors from empirical data is also derived. The propagation of noise through the data-reduction process is illustrated through a series of equations for the change in S/N that results from a variety of different operations performed on a CCD frame. Comparing these effects with the results expected for an observation made with an ideal detector suggests a number of ways to improve the precision of photometry through the practices employed in obtaining and reducing the observations.

Newberry, Michael V.↗

GTARG - The TOPEX/Poseidon ground track maintenance maneuver targeting program

GTARG is a computer program used to design orbit maintenance maneuvers for the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. These maneuvers ensure that the ground track is kept within +/-1 km with of an = 9.9 day exact repeat pattern. Maneuver parameters are determined using either of two targeting strategies: longitude targeting, which maximizes the time between maneuvers, and time targeting, in which maneuvers are targeted to occur at specific intervals. The GTARG algorithm propagates nonsingular mean elements, taking into account anticipated error sigma's in orbit determination, Delta v execution, drag prediction and Delta v quantization. A satellite unique drag model is used which incorporates an approximate mean orbital Jacchia-Roberts atmosphere and a variable mean area model. Maneuver Delta v magnitudes are targeted to precisely maintain either the unbiased ground track itself, or a comfortable (3 sigma) error envelope about the unbiased ground track.

Shapiro, Bruce E.↗

Hyper-X Post-Flight Trajectory Reconstruction

This paper discusses the formulation and development of a trajectory reconstruction tool for the NASA X{43A/Hyper{X high speed research vehicle, and its implementation for the reconstruction and analysis of ight test data. Extended Kalman ltering techniques are employed to reconstruct the trajectory of the vehicle, based upon numerical integration of inertial measurement data along with redundant measurements of the vehicle state. The equations of motion are formulated in order to include the effects of several systematic error sources, whose values may also be estimated by the ltering routines. Additionally, smoothing algorithms have been implemented in which the nal value of the state (or an augmented state that includes other systematic error parameters to be estimated) and covariance are propagated back to the initial time to generate the best-estimated trajectory, based upon all available data. The methods are applied to the problem of reconstructing the trajectory of the Hyper-X vehicle from ight data.

Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗

Hyper-X Mach 10 Trajectory Reconstruction

This paper discusses the formulation and development of a trajectory reconstruction tool for the NASA X-43A/Hyper-X high speed research vehicle, and its implementation for the reconstruction and analysis of flight test data. Extended Kalman filtering techniques are employed to reconstruct the trajectory of the vehicle, based upon numerical integration of inertial measurement data along with redundant measurements of the vehicle state. The equations of motion are formulated in order to include the effects of several systematic error sources, whose values may also be estimated by the filtering routines. Additionally, smoothing algorithms have been implemented in which the final value of the state (or an augmented state that includes other systematic error parameters to be estimated) and covariance are propagated back to the initial time to generate the best-estimated trajectory, based upon all available data. The methods are applied to the problem of reconstructing the trajectory of the Hyper-X vehicle from data obtained during the Mach 10 test flight, which occurred on November 16th 2004.

Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗

Accuracy Analysis on Large Blocks of High Resolution Images

Although high altitude frequencies effects are removed at the time of basic image generation, low altitude (Yaw) effects are still present in form of affinity/angular affinity. They are effectively removed by additional parameters. Bundle block adjustment based on properly weighted ephemeris/altitude quaternions (BBABEQ) are not enough to remove the systematic effect. Moreover, due to the narrow FOV of the HRSI, position and altitude are highly correlated making it almost impossible to separate and remove their systematic effects without extending the geometric model (Self-Calib.) The systematic effects gets evident on the increase of accuracy (in terms of RMSE at GCPs) for looser and relaxed ground control at the expense of large and strong block deformation with large residuals at check points. Systematic errors are most freely distributed and their effects propagated all over the block.

Passini, Richardo M.↗

The Fermi Large Area Telescope on Orbit: Event Classification, Instrument Response Functions, and Calibration

The Fermi Large Area Telescope (Fermi-LAT, hereafter LAT), the primary instrument on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi) mission, is an imaging, wide field-of-view, high-energy -ray telescope, covering the energy range from 20 MeV to more than 300 GeV. During the first years of the mission the LAT team has gained considerable insight into the in-flight performance of the instrument. Accordingly, we have updated the analysis used to reduce LAT data for public release as well as the Instrument Response Functions (IRFs), the description of the instrument performance provided for data analysis. In this paper we describe the effects that motivated these updates. Furthermore, we discuss how we originally derived IRFs from Monte Carlo simulations and later corrected those IRFs for discrepancies observed between flight and simulated data. We also give details of the validations performed using flight data and quantify the residual uncertainties in the IRFs. Finally, we describe techniques the LAT team has developed to propagate those uncertainties into estimates of the systematic errors on common measurements such as fluxes and spectra of astrophysical sources.

Ackermann, M.↗

Propagation of experimental uncertainties from the tunnel to the body coordinate system in 3-D LDV flow field studies

An analysis of experimental laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV) data uncertainties that propagate from measurements in the tunnel coordinate system to results in the model system are provided. Calculations of uncertainties as functions of the variables that comprise the final result requires assessment of the contribution each variable makes. Such an analysis enables and necessitates the experimentalists to identify and address the contributing error sources in the experimental measurement system. This provides an opportunity to improve the quality of data derived from experimental systems. This is especially important in experiments where small changes in test conditions are expected to produce small, detectable changes in results. In addition, the need for high-quality experimental data for CFD method validation demands a thorough assessment of experimental uncertainty. Transforming from one Cartesian coordinate system to another by three sequential rotations, equations were developed to transform the variables initially obtained in the original coordinates into variables in the final coordinate system. Based on the transformation equations, propagation equations for errors in the experimentally-derived flow quantities were derived for a model at angle of attack. Experimental uncertainties were then propagated from the tunnel coordinate system into the model system.

Neuhart, Dan H.↗

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

Deep Space Network Radiometric Remote Sensing Program

Planetary spacecraft are viewed through a troposphere that absorbs and delays radio signals propagating through it. Tropospheric water, in the form of vapor, cloud liquid, and precipitation, emits radio noise which limits satellite telemetry communication link performance. Even at X-band, rain storms have severely affected several satellite experiments including a planetary encounter. The problem will worsen with DSN implementation of Ka-band because communication link budgets will be dominated by tropospheric conditions. Troposphere-induced propagation delays currently limit VLBI accuracy and are significant sources of error for Doppler tracking. Additionally, the success of radio science programs such as satellite gravity wave experiments and atmospheric occultation experiments depends on minimizing the effect of water vapor-induced propagation delays. In order to overcome limitations imposed by the troposphere, the Deep Space Network has supported a program of radiometric remote sensing. Currently, water vapor radiometers (WVRs) and microwave temperature profilers (MTPs) support many aspects of the Deep Space Network operations and research and development programs. Their capability to sense atmospheric water, microwave sky brightness, and atmospheric temperature is critical to development of Ka-band telemetry systems, communication link models, VLBI, satellite gravity wave experiments, and radio science missions. During 1993, WVRs provided data for propagation model development, supported planetary missions, and demonstrated advanced tracking capability. Collection of atmospheric statistics is necessary to model and predict performance of Ka-band telemetry links, antenna arrays, and radio science experiments. Since the spectrum of weather variations has power at very long time scales, atmospheric measurements have been requested for periods ranging from one year to a decade at each DSN site. The resulting database would provide reliable statistics on daily, monthly, and seasonal variations. Only long-term monitoring will prevent biases from being introduced by an exceptionally wet or dry year. Support for planetary missions included tropospheric calibration for the recent Mars Observer gravity wave experiments and Ka-band link experiment (KaBLE). Additionally, several proposed radio science experiments such as profiling planetary atmospheres using satellite occultations and Ka-band gravitational wave searches require advanced radiometer technology development. Finally, there has been a consistent advanced technology program to advance satellite navigational and tracking capabilities. This year that included an experiment with radiometer based tropospheric calibration for a series of VLBI catalog measurements.

tropospheric calibration atmospheric water radio s↗

Altimeter error sources at the 10-cm performance level

Error sources affecting the calibration and operational use of a 10 cm altimeter are examined to determine the magnitudes of current errors and the investigations necessary to reduce them to acceptable bounds. Errors considered include those affecting operational data pre-processing, and those affecting altitude bias determination, with error budgets developed for both. The most significant error sources affecting pre-processing are bias calibration, propagation corrections for the ionosphere, and measurement noise. No ionospheric models are currently validated at the required 10-25% accuracy level. The optimum smoothing to reduce the effects of measurement noise is investigated and found to be on the order of one second, based on the TASC model of geoid undulations. The 10 cm calibrations are found to be feasible only through the use of altimeter passes that are very high elevation for a tracking station which tracks very close to the time of altimeter track, such as a high elevation pass across the island of Bermuda. By far the largest error source, based on the current state-of-the-art, is the location of the island tracking station relative to mean sea level in the surrounding ocean areas.

Martin, C. F.↗

The Importance of Semi-Major Axis Knowledge in the Determination of Near-Circular Orbits

Modem orbit determination has mostly been accomplished using Cartesian coordinates. This usage has carried over in recent years to the use of GPS for satellite orbit determination. The unprecedented positioning accuracy of GPS has tended to focus attention more on the system's capability to locate the spacecraft's location at a particular epoch than on its accuracy in determination of the orbit, per se. As is well-known, the latter depends on a coordinated knowledge of position, velocity, and the correlation between their errors. Failure to determine a properly coordinated position/velocity state vector at a given epoch can lead to an epoch state that does not propagate well, and/or may not be usable for the execution of orbit adjustment maneuvers. For the quite common case of near-circular orbits, the degree to which position and velocity estimates are properly coordinated is largely captured by the error in semi-major axis (SMA) they jointly produce. Figure 1 depicts the relationships among radius error, speed error, and their correlation which exist for a typical low altitude Earth orbit. Two familiar consequences are the relationship Figure 1 shows are the following: (1) downrange position error grows at the per orbit rate of 3(pi) times the SMA error; (2) a velocity change imparted to the orbit will have an error of (pi) divided by the orbit period times the SMA error. A less familiar consequence occurs in the problem of initializing the covariance matrix for a sequential orbit determination filter. An initial covariance consistent with orbital dynamics should be used if the covariance is to propagate well. Properly accounting for the SMA error of the initial state in the construction of the initial covariance accomplishes half of this objective, by specifying the partition of the covariance corresponding to down-track position and radial velocity errors. The remainder of the in-plane covariance partition may be specified in terms of the flight path angle error of the initial state. Figure 2 illustrates the effect of properly and not properly initializing a covariance. This figure was produced by propagating the covariance shown on the plot, without process noise, in a circular low Earth orbit whose period is 5828.5 seconds. The upper subplot, in which the proper relationships among position, velocity, and their correlation has been used, shows overall error growth, in terms of the standard deviations of the inertial position coordinates, of about half of the lower subplot, whose initial covariance was based on other considerations.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗

Radiometric analysis of the longwave infrared channel of the Thematic Mapper on LANDSAT 4 and 5

The first objective was to evaluate the postlaunch radiometric calibration of the LANDSAT Thematic Mapper (TM) band 6 data. The second objective was to determine to what extent surface temperatures could be computed from the TM and 6 data using atmospheric propagation models. To accomplish this, ground truth data were compared to a single TM-4 band 6 data set. This comparison indicated satisfactory agreement over a narrow temperature range. The atmospheric propagation model (modified LOWTRAN 5A) was used to predict surface temperature values based on the radiance at the spacecraft. The aircraft data were calibrated using a multi-altitude profile calibration technique which had been extensively tested in previous studies. This aircraft calibration permitted measurement of surface temperatures based on the radiance reaching the aircraft. When these temperature values are evaluated, an error in the satellite's ability to predict surface temperatures can be estimated. This study indicated that by carefully accounting for various sensor calibration and atmospheric propagation effects, and expected error (1 standard deviation) in surface temperature would be 0.9 K. This assumes no error in surface emissivity and no sampling error due to target location. These results indicate that the satellite calibration is within nominal limits to within this study's ability to measure error.

Schott, John R.↗

The benefit of brightness temperature assimilation for the SMAP Level-4 surface and root-zone soil moisture analysis

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level-4 (L4) product provides global estimates of surface soil moisture (SSM) and root-zone soil moisture (RZSM) via the assimilation of SMAP brightness temperature (Tb) observations into the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM). Here, using in situ measurements from 2474 sites in China, we evaluate the performance of soil moisture estimates from the L4 data assimilation (DA) system and from a baseline “open-loop” (OL) simulation of CLSM without Tb assimilation. Using random forest regression, the efficiency of the L4 DA system (i.e., the performance improvement in DA relative to OL) is attributed to eight control factors related to the CLSM as well as τ–ω radiative transfer model (RTM) components of the L4 system. Results show that the Spearman rank correlation (R) for L4 SSM with in situ measurements increases for 77 % of the in situ measurement locations (relative to that of OL), with an average R increase of approximately 14 % (ΔR=0.056). RZSM skill is improved for about 74 % of the in situ measurement locations, but the average R increase for RZSM is only 7 % (ΔR=0.034). Results further show that the SSM DA skill improvement is most strongly related to the difference between the RTM-simulated Tb and the SMAP Tb observation, followed by the error in precipitation forcing data and estimated microwave soil roughness parameter h. For the RZSM DA skill improvement, these three dominant control factors remain the same, although the importance of soil roughness exceeds that of the Tb simulation error, as the soil roughness strongly affects the ingestion of DA increments and further propagation to the subsurface. For the skill of the L4 and OL estimates themselves, the top two control factors are the precipitation error and the SSM–RZSM coupling strength error, both of which are related to the CLSM component of the L4 system. Finally, we find that the L4 system can effectively filter out errors in precipitation. Therefore, future development of the L4 system should focus on improving the characterization of the SSM–RZSM coupling strength.

Jianxiu Qiu↗

First Test of Fan Active Noise Control (ANC) Completed

With the advent of ultrahigh-bypass engines, the space available for passive acoustic treatment is becoming more limited, whereas noise regulations are becoming more stringent. Active noise control (ANC) holds promise as a solution to this problem. It uses secondary (added) noise sources to reduce or eliminate the offending noise radiation. The first active noise control test on the low-speed fan test bed was a General Electric Company system designed to control either the exhaust or inlet fan tone. This system consists of a "ring source," an induct array of error microphones, and a control computer. Fan tone noise propagates in a duct in the form of spinning waves. These waves are detected by the microphone array, and the computer identifies their spinning structure. The computer then controls the "ring source" to generate waves that have the same spinning structure and amplitude, but 180 out of phase with the fan noise. This computer generated tone cancels the fan tone before it radiates from the duct and is heard in the far field. The "ring source" used in these tests is a cylindrical array of 16 flat-plate acoustic radiators that are driven by thin piezoceramic sheets bonded to their back surfaces. The resulting source can produce spinning waves up to mode 7 at levels high enough to cancel the fan tone. The control software is flexible enough to work on spinning mode orders from -6 to 6. In this test, the fan was configured to produce a tone of order 6. The complete modal (spinning and radial) structure of the tones was measured with two builtin sets of rotating microphone rakes. These rakes provide a measurement of the system performance independent from the control system error microphones. In addition, the far-field noise was measured with a semicircular array of 28 microphones. This test represents the first in a series of tests that demonstrate different active noise control concepts, each on a progressively more complicated modal structure. The tests are in preparation for a demonstration on a flight-type engine.

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