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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment Report. Volume 3: Energy Saving Opportunity

This report seeks to inform the potential for motor systems to support decarbonization by estimating their potential energy, electricity cost, and CO 2 emissions reduction potential from adoption of proven energy efficiency actions and advanced technologies. This is the third and final report in a series of reports disseminating the findings of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Motor System Market Assessment (MSMA). The MSMA and this report focus on polyphase motor systems greater than or equal to 1 horsepower (hp) in the industrial and commercial sectors. In the U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment Report Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base (Volume 1 report), it was determined that these motor systems consume more than 1,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually. This equates to 29% of the U.S. electric grid load and results in 765 million metric tons (MMT) of CO 2 emissions and $166 billion in electricity costs. This report finds that substantial reductions to these energy, cost, and emissions impacts are possible, with three areas of significant opportunity being (1) improved load matching, (2) replacing older inefficient motors with more efficient motors, and (3) improving the condition of fluid (e.g., air, water, compressed air) distribution systems. A summary of the savings potential from these three opportunities placed within the context of the overall consumption for motor systems is illustrated in Figure ES 1 (industrial) and Figure ES 2 (commercial).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bias-Adjustment Methods for Future Subdaily Precipitation Extremes Consistent Across Durations

Model output from climate projections often requires bias-adjustment to compensate for systematic model errors. A bias-adjustment method for extreme precipitation intensity is proposed that preserves the scaling equation for different accumulation levels from hourly to daily, using intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) modeling. A validation is performed within a pseudo-reality setting, based on hourly precipitation from 28 regional climate model projections of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble over Belgium. The scaling-based adjustment methods improve upon previous methods, an optimal method is identified, and, analytical quantile mapping methods must be avoided due to three identified problems. The ensemble mean of the adjusted extreme precipitation intensity obeys the above-mentioned scale-invariance property, which is consistent with observed extreme intensities. We thus show that IDF modeling provides added value in the context of bias-adjustment, and, that the particular IDF model proposed balances well between accuracy and the preservation of desired properties such as scale invariance and consistency among rainfall durations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

National Council on Radiation Protection (NCRP) 2024 annual meeting: advanced and small modular nuclear power reactors

On 25–26 March 2023, the U.S. National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) held its 2024 annual meeting in Bethesda, Maryland, USA. The NCRP dates from 1929, and this meeting celebrated the 60th anniversary of receiving a U.S. Congressional Charter. For this annual meeting the NCRP felt it was essential to provide a briefing about advanced and small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs). The Journal of Radiological Protection is delighted to publish the following synopsis of material presented at the U.S. NCRP meeting. This synopsis is divided into five sections. The first section provides an overview of the whole meeting together with summaries of two context setting overview papers. The following four sessions of this synopsis are specific to advanced and small modular nuclear power reactors. The meeting also included keynote presentations by three of NCRP annual award recipients. The meeting topical areas were Technology Overview and Critical Issues. The individual papers laid the groundwork to understanding reactor technologies, terminology, and the fundamental concepts and processes for electrical generation. The perspectives of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and states, through the Conference of Radiation Control Program Directors were provided. The papers included a discussion of diverse topics including potential emergency preparedness considerations, radiological survey requirements, an evaluation of the future of nuclear power, the economics of reactors (both large and small), and the critical issues identified by the recent National Academies of Sciences’ study on advanced reactors. Here, the summary papers were developed to briefly document the major points and concepts presented during the oral papers presented at the 2024 NCRP Annual Meeting. The meeting heralded the dawn of a new era for commercial nuclear power.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Astronomical context of Solar System formation from molybdenum isotopes in meteorite inclusions

Calcium-aluminum–rich inclusions (CAIs) in meteorites are the first solids to have formed in the Solar System, defining the epoch of its birth on an absolute time scale. This provides a link between astronomical observations of star formation and cosmochemical studies of Solar System formation. We show that the distinct molybdenum isotopic compositions of CAIs cover almost the entire compositional range of material that formed in the protoplanetary disk. We propose that CAIs formed while the Sun was in transition from the protostellar to pre–main sequence (T Tauri) phase of star formation, placing Solar System formation within an astronomical context. Our results imply that the bulk of the material that formed the Sun and Solar System accreted within the CAI-forming epoch, which lasted less than 200,000 years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regional Relative Risk, a Physics-Based Metric for Characterizing Airborne Infectious Disease Transmission

Airborne infectious disease transmission events occur over a wide range of spatial scales and can be an important means of disease transmission. Physics- and biology-based models can assist in predicting airborne transmission events, overall disease incidence, and disease control strategy efficacy. We describe a new theory that extends current approaches for the case in which an individual is infected by a single airborne particle, including the scenario in which numerous infectious particles are present in the air but only one causes infection. A single infectious particle can contain more than one pathogenic microorganism and be physically larger than the pathogen itself. This approach allows robust relative risk estimates even when there is wide variation in (i) individual exposures and (ii) the individual response to that exposure (the pathogen dose-response function can take any mathematical form and vary by individual). Based on this theory, we propose the regional relative risk—a new metric, distinct from the traditional relative risk metric, that compares the risk between two regions. In theory, these regions can range from individual rooms to large geographic areas. In this paper, we apply the regional relative risk metric to outdoor disease transmission events over spatial scales ranging from 50 m to 20 km, demonstrating that in many common cases minimal input information is required to use the metric. Also, we demonstrate that the model predictions are consistent with data from prior outbreaks. Future efforts could apply and validate this theory for other spatial scales, such as transmission within indoor environments. This work provides context for (i) the initial stages of an airborne disease outbreak and (ii) larger-scale disease spread, including unexpected low-probability disease “sparks” that potentially affect remote populations, a key practical issue in controlling airborne disease outbreaks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Review of International Field Experience with Well Integrity at Carbon Utilization and Storage Sites

This report details findings from a survey of well integrity experiences elicited from operators of geologic carbon storage (GCS) and carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) sites around the world. The survey consisted of 41 questions organized in four sections and its goal was to obtain information about site characteristics and operator experiences with well integrity, monitoring methods, and risk assessment of legacy wells. Current literature relevant to the survey questions was also reviewed and summarized to provide context for survey responses and identify areas where field experiences with well integrity do and do not align with the current state of research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reflecting Sunlight: Recommendations for Solar Geoengineering Research and Research Governance

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) report "Reflecting Sunlight: Recommendations for Solar Geoengineering Research and Research Governance" focused on three atmospheric-based Solar Geoengineering strategies: Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, Marine Cloud Brightening, Cirrus Cloud Thinning. The study recommends that a national (and internationally-coordinated) Solar Geoengineering research program be established and coordinated by the U.S. Global Change Research Program—with a focus on developing information needed by decision makers, not advancing a path to deployment. The study recommends a detailed framework for governance of this research, at both national and international levels. The study also recommends a detailed research agenda for this program, encompassing over a dozen transdisciplinary research topics that can be loosely grouped into the categories of (i) technical dimensions and impacts, (ii) social dimensions, and (iii) context and goals for solar geoengineering research itself.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Molecular level characterization of wildfire aerosol induced changes to plant health and value

The potential impacts of wildfire smoke on plant health and value are of increasing concern, due both to increasing awareness, and more frequent wildfire events. Wildfires produce substantial amounts of atmospheric pollution in smoke and particulate matter which can travel thousands of miles. These smoke events can blanket entire agricultural regions and cause impacts to plant development. One notable example of this is ‘smoke taint’ in wine, where vines, exposed to smoke, absorb many small volatile phenolic (VP) compounds. These VPs can be metabolized (glycosylated) and transported throughout the plant. Later, during downstream processing (fermentation of the grape musts), these glycosylated VPs can be hydrolyzed to re-release and volatilize the aroma-active phenolic compounds. The final product, thus, smells of smoke. Despite the obvious commercial and general research interests here, the nature of wildfire impacts on plant health are incompletely understood. Using established metabolomics and organic matter (aerosol) characterization methods, the overall aim of this proposal is thus to study wildfire smoke impacts on plant health and value, in the context of a model system (V. vinifera). This project closed early, and this report reflects some of the limited work conducted prior to conclusions. Specifically, this report discusses some sample preparation and initial MALDI-mass spectrometry analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Creating a Tools Ecosystem for Cross-Discipline Environmental Data Reuse

Reusing data is difficult even within well-defined science communities and only gets worse when combining data from multiple communities and disciplines. Through the lens of current work on constructing an environmental epidemiological data set from multiple disciplinary sources, we demonstrate the need for a new tool ecosystem to support heterogeneous Big Data science. Extending existing community standards for schemas and/or data formats through human auditing and wrangling of the data is not feasible at scale. This work therefore suggests new approaches for the multi-disciplinary communities to build a shared tool ecosystem for big data. We discuss both the larger context of data wrangling of epidemiological data sets for novel artificial intelligence algorithms and the specific lessons from working with these multi-disciplinary data sets. Adopting a more model-driven, automatable approach promises not only better efficiency but also removes key sources of human-generated errors and promotes reuse and reproducibility of science data.

Logan, Jeremy↗
DOE OSTI2023

Taxonomic and environmental distribution of bacterial amino acid auxotrophies

Abstract Many microorganisms are auxotrophic—unable to synthesize the compounds they require for growth. With this work, we quantify the prevalence of amino acid auxotrophies across a broad diversity of bacteria and habitats. We predicted the amino acid biosynthetic capabilities of 26,277 unique bacterial genomes spanning 12 phyla using a metabolic pathway model validated with empirical data. Amino acid auxotrophy is widespread across bacterial phyla, but we conservatively estimate that the majority of taxa (78.4%) are able to synthesize all amino acids. Our estimates indicate that amino acid auxotrophies are more prevalent among obligate intracellular parasites and in free-living taxa with genomic attributes characteristic of ‘streamlined’ life history strategies. We predicted the amino acid biosynthetic capabilities of bacterial communities found in 12 unique habitats to investigate environmental associations with auxotrophy, using data compiled from 3813 samples spanning major aquatic, terrestrial, and engineered environments. Auxotrophic taxa were more abundant in host-associated environments (including the human oral cavity and gut) and in fermented food products, with auxotrophic taxa being relatively rare in soil and aquatic systems. Overall, this work contributes to a more complete understanding of amino acid auxotrophy across the bacterial tree of life and the ecological contexts in which auxotrophy can be a successful strategy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hyporheic hydraulic geometry: Conceptualizing relationships among hyporheic exchange, storage, and water age

Hyporheic exchange is now widely acknowledged as a key driver of ecosystem processes in many streams. Yet stream ecologists have been slow to adopt nuanced hydrologic frameworks developed and applied by engineers and hydrologists to describe the relationship between water storage, water age, and water balance in finite hydrosystems such as hyporheic zones. Here, in the context of hyporheic hydrology, we summarize a well-established mathematical framework useful for describing hyporheic hydrology, while also applying the framework heuristically to visualize the relationships between water age, rates of hyporheic exchange, and water volume within hyporheic zones. Building on this heuristic application, we discuss how improved accuracy in the conceptualization of hyporheic exchange can yield a deeper understanding of the role of the hyporheic zone in stream ecosystems. Although the equations presented here have been well-described for decades, our aim is to make the mathematical basis as accessible as possible and to encourage broader understanding among aquatic ecologists of the implications of tailed age distributions commonly observed in water discharged from and stored within hyporheic zones. Our quantitative description of “hyporheic hydraulic geometry,” associated visualizations, and discussion offer a nuanced and realistic understanding of hyporheic hydrology to aid in considering hyporheic exchange in the context of river and stream ecosystem science and management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Untargeted, tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS-MS) metaproteomes from soil samples in control and warming plots in Blodgett Forest, CA (2014-2021)

The pathways of carbon transport and loss through and from soils—soil organic matter (SOM) depolymerization to dissolved organic carbon and mineralization to carbon dioxide (CO2)—are fundamentally driven by microbial activity, which is strongly regulated by environmental conditions. As part of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Terrestrial Ecosystem Science (TES) Belowground Biogeochemistry Science Focus Area (SFA), we have established a novel whole-soil long-term warming experiment at the University of California (UC) Blodgett Forest Research Station (Sierra Nevada) in 2014, where we study the role of biogeochemical, microbial and geochemical process interactions in SOM decomposition and stabilization. This package contains soil metaproteomics data in the context of site specific metagenomes from soil depth profiles in three paired control and warming plots from a temperate mixed forest in Northern California. Each paired plot had been subjected to experimental warming since June 2014 to simulate a predicted climate change scenario for northern California. These metaproteomes were collected in 2018 after 4.5 years of warming from five depth intervals (0-10 cm, 10-30 cm, 30-45 cm, 45-60 cm, 60-80 cm). For protein identification, the collected spectra were searched following a target-decoy search strategy against a database of metagenome predicted proteins (covering 96 samples from 2014 to 2021) representing the complete sequence diversity at the site. Data was searched with mass spectrometry database search tool (MS-GF+) using Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)'s Data Management System (DMS) Processing pipeline. The metagenomes are published as part of another data package. Raw metaproteomic data and the data products from MS-GF+ are deposited in the Mass Spectrometry Interactive Virtual Environment (MassIVE) database under accession no. MSV000097826. Here we present a dataset that includes spectral counts for the detected proteins across samples (EMSL50964_BrodieAllMAGs_Globals_SC.txt), the sequences of the detected proteins, and sample metadata file that contains site information for the soil metaproteome samples.

Belowground Biogeochemistry Science Focus Area↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhancement of operational Flexibility of Power Plants Using IN740

Headers are crucial components within diverse industries, especially in the energy sector, as they enable the efficient transfer of fluids. The selection of materials for headers is determined by their specific applications; for example, Grade 91 and Grade 92 steels are commonly utilized. In our research, we recommend the adoption of INCONEL alloy 740 due to its exceptional robustness and heat-resistant characteristics. One critical parameter in header systems is the heat transfer coefficient, which directly influences the efficiency of heat exchange processes and can thereby impact the structural integrity of the headers. This coefficient is closely linked with factors such as the Nusselt number, which is influenced by fluid flow characteristics and thermal properties. The flow direction within headers, whether unidirectional or multidirectional—significantly affects the overall dynamics of heat transfer. This research focuses on exploring the behavior of headers, a specific pipeline system component, using ANSYS simulation software. The study aims to predict heat transfer and mechanical behavior within headers under various conditions through steady-state and transient simulations (parts 1 and 2 of the report). Key parameters such as heat transfer coefficient, velocity, and temperature are examined with the goal of optimizing header design. Part 3 of the report addresses the critical yet underexplored relationship between pressure drop and heat transfer coefficients in the transient flow regime within headers, specifically focusing on smooth horizontal circular tubes. Limited experimental work has been conducted in this area, prompting the need for comprehensive analysis. By leveraging machine learning techniques, this research aims to establish a correlation between pressure drop and heat transfer across various flow conditions, including laminar, transient, quasi-turbulent, and turbulent regimes. The data utilized for this analysis were meticulously gathered from existing literature, capturing simultaneous measurements of pressure drops and heat transfer. Part 4: In the context of power plants, header pipes are essential components that significantly influence system performance by facilitating the collection and distribution of steam. This report highlights the critical role of header pipes in enhancing reliability, efficiency, and overall power plant performance. A key aspect of this investigation is shape optimization, which aims to maximize performance while minimizing material usage. By focusing on shape optimization, this research contributes to improved efficiency and a reduced environmental footprint for power plant installations. The methodology developed in this study emphasizes optimizing header shapes to decrease reliance on expensive alloy materials and lower maintenance costs. Furthermore, a case study was conducted using a header from an operational power plant to validate the proposed optimization techniques. Finally, part 5 addresses the challenges associated with flexible operations in boiler systems, the study outlines several strategies for enhancing the durability and reliability of steam headers. Key approaches include material selection, which involves utilizing advanced materials with superior high-temperature properties and enhanced fatigue resistance to extend the lifespan of steam headers. Design modifications are also recommended, focusing on implementing changes that mitigate thermal stress and cyclic loading to reduce the likelihood of failures under varying operating conditions. Additionally, the study emphasizes the importance of regular inspection and monitoring by establishing rigorous protocols to detect early signs of damage, allowing for timely maintenance and minimizing the risks of catastrophic failures. Furthermore, operational guidelines are developed to minimize the frequency and severity of thermal transients, ensuring stable and efficient operations. Collectively, these strategies provide a robust framework for overcoming the unique challenges posed by flexible operation in boiler systems, ultimately contributing to improved reliability and performance in power plant operations. Through this comprehensive approach, the study not only enhances the understanding of pressure drop and heat transfer relationships but also promotes advancements in design and operation that will benefit the entire power generation industry.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

Merged Observatory Data Files (MODFs): an integrated observational data product supporting process-oriented investigations and diagnostics

A large and ever-growing body of geophysical information is measured in campaigns and at specialized observatories as a part of scientific expeditions and experiments. These collections of observed data include many essential climate variables (as defined by the Global Climate Observing System) but are often distinguished by a wide range of additional non-routine measurements that are designed to not only document the state of the environment but also the drivers that contribute to that state. These field data are used not only to further understand environmental processes through observation-based studies but also to provide baseline data to test model performance and to codify understanding to improve predictive capabilities. To address the considerable barriers and difficulty in utilizing these diverse and complex data for observation–model research, the Merged Observatory Data File (MODF) concept has been developed. A MODF combines measurements from multiple instruments into a single file that complies with well-established data format and metadata practices and has been designed to parallel the development of corresponding Merged Model Data Files (MMDFs). Using the MODF and MMDF protocols will facilitate the evolution of model intercomparison projects into model intercomparison and improvement projects by putting observation and model data “on the same page” in a timely manner. The MODF concept was developed especially for weather forecast model studies in the Arctic. The surprisingly complex process of implementing MODFs in that context refined the concept itself. Thus, this article explains the concept of MODFs by providing details on the issues that were revealed and resolved during that first specific implementation. Detailed instructions are provided on how to make MODFs, and this article can be considered a MODF creation manual.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reliability and resilience of environmental flows under uncertainty: reconsidering water year types and inconsistent flow requirements in California

Abstract Environmental water allocation in California is a complex legal process involving various government agencies and stakeholders. E-flow requirements can be based on annual runoff typologies called water year types (WYTs), which dictate water volume, timing, and duration. In this study, we examined hydropower licensing documents of the major water and power projects in the Central Sierra Nevada to catalog e-flow requirements by WYT. In this study case, we identify how WYT classification systems and categories vary across and within different basins. Additionally, we assessed the impacts of climate change on hydrology, the frequency of WYTs identified, and the reliability and resilience of e-flows using future projections (2031–2060) of 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs). We then propose a potential adaptation strategy using a 30 year moving percentiles approach to recalculate WYTs. We identified eight WYT classifications systems were identified, and their WYT distributions statistically significantly changes across all GCMs, even though most GCMs indicate no statistically significant change in hydrology. Disparities in future impacts are observed among and within hydropower projects, with some river reaches showing negative impacts on reliability and resilience. The adaptation strategy can generally boost resilience and improve reliability, but simply updating existing WYT thresholds without flexible regulatory frameworks reconsidering WYTs and e-flows thresholds, may not yield substantial improvements. Challenges in managing e-flows in California within regulatory and hydroclimatic contexts are intricate due to the lack of standardized approaches, leading to inconsistencies and potential conflicts among stakeholders, that will likely be exacerbated by climate change. Thus, we emphasize that targeted, site-specific, and adaptive management strategies are crucial, besides the need for a harmonized and consistent approach to defining and applying WYT categories and methods and/or e-flow assessments.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geographical Insights into Suicide Mortality Through Spatial Machine Learning

Suicide mortality is a leading cause of death in the United States, with an upward trend that emphasizes its significance as a public health issue. Previous research has employed global models like ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and local models such as geographically weighted regression (GWR). While local models are useful for analyzing spatial variations in suicide mortality, they share limitations with traditional global models, particularly about their inability to handle multi-collinearity and non-linear relationships. Machine learning approaches, like random forests (RF), can address some of these limitations but often fail to account for spatial variability. This gap highlights the need for spatial ML models specifically designed to tackle suicide mortality. This research seeks to fill this void by using a geographically weighted random forest model (GWRF) to examine the associations between county-level suicide mortality in the U.S. from 2010 to 2020 and various social and environmental determinants of health. A key aspect of our methodology is disciplined feature selection, which reduces the pool of explanatory variables by about 90%. This refinement enhances the explanatory power of both global (R2 improved from 0.59 to 0.67) and local (R2 improved from 0.64 to 0.67) RF models while reducing their run times. An analysis of the importance scores for these selected features reveals that the drivers of suicide mortality vary by context. Thus, to effectively address regional disparities and inform targeted public health interventions, a holistic approach that incorporates multiple county-level characteristics is essential.

Lebakula, Viswadeep [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000152935914↗
DOE OSTI2020

Inhibition of DNA methylation in P. soloecismus alters algae productivity

Eukaryotic organisms regulate the organization, structure, and accessibility of their genomes through chromatin remodeling that can be inherited as epigenetic modifications. These DNA and histone protein modifications are ultimately responsible for an organism’s molecular adaptation to the environment, resulting in distinctive phenotypes. Epigenetic manipulation of algae holds yet untapped potential for the optimization of biofuel production and bioproduct formation; however, epigenetic machinery and modes-of-action have not been well characterized in algae. We sought to determine the extent to which the biofuel platform species Picochlorum soloecismus utilizes DNA methylation to regulate its genome. We found candidate genes with domains for DNA methylation in the P. soloecismus genome. Whole-genome bisulfite sequencing revealed DNA methylation in all three cytosine contexts (CpG, CHH, and CHG). While global DNA methylation is low overall (~1.15%), it occurs in appreciable quantities (12.1%) in CpG dinucleotides in a bimodal distribution in all genomic contexts, though terminators contain the greatest number of CpG sites per kilobase. The P. soloecismus genome becomes hypomethylated during the growth cycle in response to nitrogen starvation. Algae cultures were treated daily across the growth cycle with 20 μM 5-aza-2'-deoxycytidine (5AZA) to inhibit propagation of DNA methylation in daughter cells. 5AZA treatment significantly increased optical density and forward and side scatter of cells across the growth cycle (16 days). This increase in cell size and complexity correlated with a significant increase (~66%) in lipid accumulation. Site specific CpG DNA methylation was significantly altered with 5AZA treatment over the time course, though nitrogen starvation itself induced significant hypomethylation in CpG contexts. Genes involved in several biological processes, including fatty acid synthesis, had altered methylation ratios in response to 5AZA; we hypothesize that these changes are potentially responsible for the phenotype of early induction of carbon storage as lipids. This is the first report to utilize epigenetic manipulation strategies to alter algal physiology and phenotype. Collectively, these data suggest these strategies can be utilized to fine-tune metabolic responses, alter growth, and enhance environmental adaption of microalgae for desired outcomes.

5-aza-2'-deoxycytidine↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stand Age and Climate Change Effects on Carbon Increments and Stock Dynamics

Carbon assimilation and wood production are influenced by environmental conditions and endogenous factors, such as species auto-ecology, age, and hierarchical position within the forest structure. Disentangling the intricate relationships between those factors is more pressing than ever due to climate change’s pressure. We employed the 3D-CMCC-FEM model to simulate undisturbed forests of different ages under four climate change (plus one no climate change) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios from five Earth system models. In this context, carbon stocks and increment were simulated via total carbon woody stocks and mean annual increment, which depends mainly on climate trends. We find greater differences among different age cohorts under the same scenario than among different climate scenarios under the same age class. Increasing temperature and changes in precipitation patterns led to a decline in above-ground biomass in spruce stands, especially in the older age classes. On the contrary, the results show that beech forests will maintain and even increase C-storage rates under most RCP scenarios. Scots pine forests show an intermediate behavior with a stable stock capacity over time and in different scenarios but with decreasing mean volume annual increment. These results confirm current observations worldwide that indicate a stronger climate-related decline in conifers forests than in broadleaves.

Forestry↗