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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The Impact of Stochastic Perturbations in Physics Variables for Predicting Surface Solar Irradiance

We present a probabilistic framework tailored for solar energy applications referred to as the Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). WRF-Solar EPS has been developed by introducing stochastic perturbations into the most relevant physical variables for solar irradiance predictions. In this study, we comprehensively discuss the impact of the stochastic perturbations of WRF-Solar EPS on solar irradiance forecasting compared to a deterministic WRF-Solar prediction (WRF-Solar DET), a stochastic ensemble using the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS), and a WRF-Solar multi-physics ensemble (WRF-Solar PHYS). The performances of the four forecasts are evaluated using irradiance retrievals from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) over the contiguous United States. We focus on the predictability of the day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts during the year of 2018. The results show that the ensemble forecasts improve the quality of the forecasts, compared to the deterministic prediction system, by accounting for the uncertainty derived by the ensemble members. However, the three ensemble systems are under-dispersive, producing unreliable and overconfident forecasts due to a lack of calibration. In particular, WRF-Solar EPS produces less optically thick clouds than the other forecasts, which explains the larger positive bias in WRF-Solar EPS (31.7 W/m 2 ) than in the other models (22.7–23.6 W/m 2 ). This study confirms that the WRF-Solar EPS reduced the forecast error by 7.5% in terms of the mean absolute error (MAE) compared to WRF-Solar DET, and provides in-depth comparisons of forecast abilities with the conventional scientific probabilistic approaches (i.e., SKEBS and a multi-physics ensemble). Guidelines for improving the performance of WRF-Solar EPS in the future are provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

DayCent data and results for "Robust paths to net greenhouse gas mitigation and negative emissions via advanced biofuels"

DayCent data and results for:J. L. Field, T. L. Richard, E. A. Smithwick, H. Cai, M. S. Laser, D. S. LeBauer, S. P. Long, K. Paustian, Z. Qin, J. J. Sheehan, P. Smith, M. Q. Wang, L. R. Lynd, Robust paths to net greenhouse gas mitigation and negative emissions via advanced biofuels. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2020). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920877117 This zip file contains a UNIX-format DayCent model executable, input files, automation code, and associated directory structure necessary to re-produce the DayCent analysis underlying the manuscript. The main script 'autodaycent.py' (written for Python 2.7) opens an interactive command line routine that facilitates:* Calibrating the DayCent pine growth model.* Initializing DayCent for a set of case studies sites.* Executing an ensemble of model runs representing case study site reforestation, grassland restoration, or conversion to switchgrass cultivation. * Results analysis & generation of manuscript Fig. 3. Note that the interactive analysis code requires that all input files to be contained in the directory structure as uploaded, without modification. Executable versions of the DayCent model (https://www.nrel.colostate.edu/projects/daycent/) compatible with other operating systems are available upon request.Please send questions/comments to John.L.Field@gmail.com

Agro-ecosystem function and prediction↗
DOE OSTI2024

A principle of maximum ignorance for semiclassical gravity

The principle of maximum ignorance posits that the coarse-grained description of a system is maximally agnostic about its underlying microscopic structure. We briefly review this principle for random matrix theory and for the eigenstate thermalization hypothesis. We then apply this principle in holography to construct ensembles of random mixed states. This leads to an ensemble of microstates which models our microscopic ignorance, and which on average reproduces the effective semiclassical physics of a given bulk state. We call this ensemble the state-averaging ansatz. The output of our model is a prediction for semiclassical contributions to variances and higher statistical moments over the ensemble of microstates. The statistical moments provide coarse-grained — yet gravitationally non-perturbative — information about the microstructure of the individual states of the ensemble. We show that these contributions exactly match the on-shell action of known wormhole configurations of the gravitational path integral. These results strengthen the view that wormholes simply parametrize the ignorance of the microstructure of a fundamental state, given a fixed semiclassical bulk description.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Chemical-Free Lithium Separation from High-Salinity Brines Using Model-Informed and Machine Learning-Optimized Multi-Column Zwitterionic Chromatography

Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) technologies often struggle to produce high-purity lithium salts from high-salinity brines, as current approaches require chemical-based elution, regeneration, and precipitation steps, resulting in significant environmental footprints. A novel salt fractionation approach using carboxybetaine resin, known as zwitterionic chromatography (ZIC), has demonstrated that lithium ions can be separated from divalent cations under high-salinity conditions using only water as eluent, with no regeneration required. To enable continuous and scalable deployment of this approach, we developed a chemical-free Multi-column Zwitterionic Chromatography (MZC) process and its theoretical and process models. To predict and optimize this nontraditional separation system, we introduced a novel anti-Langmuir isotherm, and the isotherm parameters were estimated through a machine learning-driven optimization based on artificial neural network ensembles with numerical feasibility assessment. Using machine learning-driven optimization, the MZC process achieved 98.0% lithium recovery, 99.5 % Li/(Li + Mg + Ca) purity, a 31.3% productivity increase, and a 33% reduction in water use compared to batch operation. The proposed MZC process enables lithium separation at $0.6-1.2 kg-1 Li, with costs dominated by resin manufacturing, while offering lower separation costs and carbon footprint compared with conventional carbonation. Overall, these findings position the MZC process as an effective polishing step within scalable and sustainable lithium production pipelines.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Intrinsic Century-Scale Variability in Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures and Their Influence on Western US Hydroclimate

Hydroclimate variability of the southwest United States (SWUS) is influenced by the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly through the teleconnection to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is expected to be altered by climate change. Natural variability in this teleconnection has not been robustly quantified, complicating the detection of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we use a linear inverse model (LIM) to quantify natural variability in the ENSO-SWUS teleconnection. The LIM yields realistic teleconnection patterns with century-scale variability comparable to simulations from the Last Millennium Ensemble project and the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6. The variability quantified by the LIM illuminates two aspects of our understanding of ENSO and its impacts: the inherent statistics of the observable system can produce century-long periods with a wide range of correlations to SWUS hydroclimate, including nonsignificant correlations, and thus that detecting changes in ENSO-related hydroclimate variability is challenging in a changing climate.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiphasic size-dependent growth dynamics of nanoparticle ensembles

Colloidal nanoparticles are of great interest in modern science and industry. However, the thermodynamic mechanism and dynamics of nanoparticle growth have yet to be understood. Addressing these issues, we tracked hundreds of in-situ growth trajectories of a nanoparticle ensemble using liquid-phase TEM and found that the nanoparticle growth, including coalescence, exhibits nanoparticle size-dependent multiphasic dynamics, unexplainable by current theories. Motivated by this finding, we developed a model and theory for an ensemble of growing nanoparticles, providing a unified, quantitative understanding of the time-dependent mean and fluctuation of nanoparticle size and size-dependent growth rate profiles across various nanoparticle systems and experimental conditions. Our work reveals that the chemical potential in a small nanoparticle strongly deviates from the Gibbs-Thomson equation, shedding light on how it governs the size-dependent growth dynamics of nanoparticles.

Kim, Ji-Hyun↗
DOE OSTI2025

In-Transit Data Transport Strategies for Coupled AI-Simulation Workflow Patterns

Coupled AI-Simulation workflows are becoming the major workloads for HPC facilities, and their increasing complexity necessitates new tools for performance analysis and prototyping of new in-situ workflows. We present SimAI-Bench, a tool designed to both prototype and evaluate these coupled workflows. In this paper, we use SimAI-Bench to benchmark the data transport performance of two common patterns on the Aurora supercomputer: a one-to-one workflow with co-located simulation and AI training instances, and a many-to-one workflow where a single AI model is trained from an ensemble of simulations. For the one-to-one pattern, our analysis shows that node-local and DragonHPC data staging strategies provide excellent performance compared Redis and Lustre file system. For the many-to-one pattern, we find that data transport becomes a dominant bottleneck as the ensemble size grows. Our evaluation reveals that file system is the optimal solution among the tested strategies for the many-to-one pattern.

Tummalapalli, Harikrishna [Argonne National Labora↗
DOE OSTI2026

Towards Anomaly Detection at the CMS High-Level Trigger System

Traditional trigger strategies in CMS typically rely on model-dependent selections or rigid kinematic cuts, risking the omission of unexpected exotic signatures. To address this, we propose a novel anomaly detection (AD) algorithm for the High-Level Trigger (HLT), designed to serve as a complementary second layer of filtering to the Level-1 AXOL1TL AD algorithm. We employ a transformer-based foundation model trained on a diverse ensemble of Standard Model processes. By combining a joint contrastive and classification objective, and using particle kinematics as inputs, the model learns to map events to a physics-informed latent space where anomalous events are isolated from dominant backgrounds. Preliminary results show that this strategy enhances the signal-to-background ratio across a range of rare SM and BSM scenarios. Furthermore, this work constitutes foundational R&D for the potential implementation of an analogous AD algorithm in the Level-1 trigger system for Phase-2.

Cruz, Roy [U. Wisconsin, Madison (main)] (ORCID:00↗
DOE OSTI2024

Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) for Hurricane Disturbance and Recovery

Tropical cyclones are an important cause of forest disturbance, and major storms caused severe structural damage and elevated tree mortality in coastal tropical forests. Model capabilities that can be used to understand post-hurricane forest recovery are still limited. We use a vegetation demography model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES) to study the processes and the key factors regulating post-hurricane forest recovery. We implemented hurricane-induced forest damage, including defoliation, structural biomass reduction, and tree mortality, performed ensemble model simulations, and used random forest feature importance. For the simulation in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico, we identified factors controlling the post-hurricane forest recovery, and quantified the sensitivity of key model parameters to the post-hurricane forest recovery. The results indicate a tendency for the Bisley forests to shift toward the light demanding plant functional type (PFT) when the pre-hurricane biomass between the light demanding and shade tolerant PFTs is nearly equal and forests experience hurricane disturbance with mortality >60% for both the two PFTs. Under more realistic conditions where the shade tolerant PFT is initially dominant, mortality >80% is required for a shift toward dominance of the light demanding PFT at Bisley. Hurricane mortality and background mortality are the two major factors regulating post-hurricane forest recovery in simulations. This research improves understanding of the ELM-FATES model behavior associated with hurricane disturbance and provides guidance for dynamic vegetation model development in representing hurricane induced forest damage with varied intensities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scaling functions for eigenstate entanglement crossovers in harmonic lattices

For quantum matter, eigenstate entanglement entropies obey an area law or log-area law at low energies and small subsystem sizes and cross over to volume laws for high energies and large subsystems. This transition is captured by crossover functions, which assume a universal scaling form in quantum critical regimes. We demonstrate this for the harmonic lattice model, which describes quantized lattice vibrations and is a regularization for free scalar field theories, modeling, e.g., spin-0 bosonic particles. In one dimension, the ground-state entanglement obeys a log-area law. For dimensions d ≥ 2, it displays area laws, even at criticality. The distribution of excited-state entanglement entropies is found to be sharply peaked around subsystem entropies of corresponding thermodynamic ensembles in accordance with the eigenstate thermalization hypothesis. Numerically, we determine crossover scaling functions for the quantum critical regime of the model and do a large-deviation analysis. We show how infrared singularities of the system can be handled and how to access the thermodynamic limit using a perturbative trick for the covariance matrix. Eigenstates for quasi-free bosonic systems are not Gaussian. Here, we resolve this problem by considering appropriate squeezed states instead. For these, entanglement entropies can be evaluated efficiently.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

MARS: Malleable Actor-Critic Reinforcement Learning Scheduler

In this paper, we introduce MARS, a new scheduling system for HPC-cloud infrastructures based on a cost-aware, flexible reinforcement learning approach, which serves as an intermediate layer for next generation HPC-cloud resource manager. MARS ensembles the pre-trained models from heuristic workloads and decides on the most cost-effective strategy for optimization. A whole workflow application would be split into several optimizable dependent sub-tasks, then based on the pre- defined resource management plan, a reward will be generated after executing a scheduled task. Lastly, MARS updates the Deep Neural Network (DNN) model based on the reward. MARS is designed to optimize the existing models through reinforcement mechanisms. MARS adapts to the dynamics of workflow applications, selects the most cost-effective scheduling solution among pre-built scheduling strategies (backfilling, SJF, etc.) and self- learning deep neural network model at run-time. We evaluate MARS with different real-world workflow traces. MARS can achieve 5%-60% increased performance compare to state-of-the- art approaches.

Baheri, Betis↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine-learning-assisted deciphering of microstructural effects on ionic transport in composite materials: A case study of Li 7 La 3 Zr 2 O 12 -LiCoO 2

The effective diffusivity of ionic species in multiphase materials is critical for the design and function of composite materials for electrochemical energy storage. In practice, effective diffusivity depends sensitively not only on the intrinsic diffusivities of constituting materials but also on their topological arrangement; nevertheless, these coupled contributions are oversimplified in most analytical models. Here, we combine atomistically informed mesoscale modeling and machine learning (ML) analysis to unravel how such features affect effective diffusivity in two-phase composites. Using the Li 7 La 3 Zr 2 O 12 -LiCoO 2 composite solid-state battery cathode as a model system, we compute effective diffusivity for 600 distinct dense polycrystalline microstructures with different topological configurations of grains, grain boundaries, and heterointerfaces. We verify that in addition to atomic-scale variabilities, microstructural feature diversity can significantly impact effective transport properties. Across the ensemble of test microstructures, this often results in bimodal distributions of effective diffusivity that encompass two qualitatively distinct operating mechanisms, which we identify via flux analysis. An ML approach reveals that the most critical determining factors for effective diffusivity are the connectivity of bulk phases and their heterointerfaces. The role of ionic mobility at the heterointerfaces is also discussed. These insights highlight the combined importance of microstructure and interface engineering in tuning the transport properties of ionic species in composite materials. In conclusion, our framework can also be extended for understanding generic microstructure-property relationships in other complex multiphase materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assimilation of a Coordinated Fleet of Uncrewed Aircraft System Observations in Complex Terrain: EnKF System Design and Preliminary Assessment

Abstract Uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) observations collected during the 2018 Lower Atmospheric Process Studies at Elevation—a Remotely Piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) field campaign were assimilated into a high-resolution configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model using an ensemble Kalman filter. The benefit of UAS observations was assessed for a terrain-driven (drainage and upvalley) flow event that occurred within Colorado’s San Luis Valley (SLV) using independent observations. The analysis and prediction of the strength, depth, and horizontal extent of drainage flow from the Saguache Canyon and the subsequent transition to upvalley and up-canyon flow were improved relative to that obtained both without data assimilation (benchmark) and when only surface observations were assimilated. Assimilation of UAS observations greatly improved the analyses of vertical variations in temperature, relative humidity, and winds at multiple locations in the northern portion of the SLV, with reductions in both bias and the root-mean-square error of roughly 40% for each variable relative to the benchmark run. Despite these noted improvements, some biases remain that were tied to measurement error and/or the impact of the boundary layer parameterization on vertically spreading the observations, both of which require further exploration. The results presented here highlight how observations obtained with a fleet of profiling UAS improve limited-area, high-resolution analyses and short-term forecasts in complex terrain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Exploring nonequilibrium phases of photo-doped Mott insulators with generalized Gibbs ensembles

Many experiments show that strong excitations of correlated quantum materials can cause non-thermal phases without equilibrium analogues. Understanding the origin and properties of these nonequilibrium states has been challenging due to the limitations of theoretical methods for nonequilibrium strongly correlated systems. In this work, we introduce a generalized Gibbs ensemble description that enables a systematic analysis of the long-time behavior of photo-doped states in Mott insulators based on equilibrium methods. We demonstrate the power of the method by mapping out the nonequilibrium phase diagram of the one-dimensional extended Hubbard model, which features η -pairing and charge density wave phases in a wide photo-doping range. We furthermore clarify that the peculiar kinematics of photo-doped carriers, and the interaction between them, play an essential role in the formation of these non-thermal phases. Our results establish a new path for the systematic analysis of nonequilibrium strongly correlated systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Detecting Multipartite Entanglement Patterns Using Single-Particle Green’s Functions

Here, we present a protocol for detecting multipartite entanglement in itinerant many-body electronic systems using single-particle Green’s functions. To achieve this, we first establish a connection between the quantum Fisher information and single-particle Green’s functions by constructing a set of witness operators built out of single electron creation and destruction operators in a doubled system. This set of witness operators is indexed by a momentum k. We compute the quantum Fisher information for these witness operators and show that for thermal ensembles it can be expressed as an autoconvolution of the single-particle spectral function. We then apply our framework to a one-dimensional fermionic system to showcase its effectiveness in detecting entanglement in itinerant electron models. We observe that the detected entanglement level is sensitive to the wave vector associated with witness operator. Our protocol will permit detecting entanglement in many-body systems using scanning tunneling microscopy and angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy, two spectroscopies that measure the single-particle Green’s function. It offers the prospect of the experimental detection of entanglement through spectroscopies beyond the established route of measuring the dynamical spin response.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

MADA: Multi-Agent Design Assistant

MADA (Multi-Agent Design Assistant) is a Large Language Model (LLM) powered multi-agent framework that coordinates specialized agents for complex design workflows. The system was designed for HPC workflows with the following agents in mind: 1) A Job Management Agent (JMA) launches and manages ensemble simulations on HPC systems, 2) a Geometry Agent (GA) generates meshes, and 3) an Inverse Design Agent (IDA) proposes new designs informed by simulation outcomes. Our framework reduces cumbersome manual workflow setup, and enables automated design exploration at scale. However, the software also enables users to rapidly create new multi-agent systems. Simply define new agents in a configuration file, giving each their own set of tools (via MCP), and then chat and prompt your new multi-agent system. Is

Gunnarson, BrianS [Lawrence Livermore National Lab↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scenario Storyline Discovery for Planning in Multi‐Actor Human‐Natural Systems Confronting Change

Scenarios have emerged as valuable tools in managing complex human-natural systems, but the traditional approach of limiting focus on a small number of predetermined scenarios can inadvertently miss consequential dynamics, extremes, and diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by exploring a wide range of possible futures and identifying those that yield consequential vulnerabilities. However, vulnerabilities are typically identified based on aggregate robustness measures that do not take full advantage of the richness of the underlying dynamics in the large ensembles of model simulations and can make it hard to identify key dynamics and/or storylines that can guide planning or further analyses. This study introduces the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced “forensic”): a scenario discovery framework that addresses these challenges by organizing and investigating consequential scenarios using hierarchical classification of diverse outcomes across actors, sectors, and scales, while also aiding in the selection of scenario storylines, based on system dynamics that drive consequential outcomes. We present an application of this framework to the Upper Colorado River Basin, focusing on decadal droughts and their water scarcity implications for the basin's diverse users and its obligations to downstream states through Lake Powell. We show how FRNSIC can explore alternative sets of impact metrics and drought dynamics and use them to identify drought scenario storylines, that can be used to inform future adaptation planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of inhomogeneous stochasticity on the falsifiability of mean-field theories and examples from accretion disc modelling

ABSTRACT Despite spatial and temporal fluctuations in turbulent astrophysical systems, mean-field theories can be used to describe their secular evolution. However, observations taken over time scales much shorter than dynamical time scales capture a system in a single state of its turbulence ensemble. Comparing with mean-field theory can falsify the latter only if the theory is additionally supplied with a quantified precision. The central limit theorem provides appropriate estimates to the precision only when fluctuations contribute linearly to an observable and with constant coherent scales. Here, we introduce an error propagation formula that relaxes both limitations, allowing for non-linear functional forms of observables and inhomogeneous coherent scales and amplitudes of fluctuations. The method is exemplified in the context of accretion disc theories, where inhomogeneous fluctuations in the surface temperature are propagated to the disc emission spectrum – the latter being a non-linear and non-local function of the former. The derived precision depends non-monotonically on emission frequency. Using the same method, we investigate how binned spectral fluctuations in telescope data change with the spectral resolving power. We discuss the broader implications for falsifiability of a mean-field theory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗