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At least 343 records · Page 19

Discerning Deception: An Empirically-Driven Agent-Based Model of Expert Evaluation of Scientific Content

Both human subject experiments and computational, modeling and simulations have been used to study detection of deception. This work aims to combine these two methods by integrating empirically-derived information (from human subject experiments) into agent-based models to generate novel insights into the complex problems of detection of disinformation content. Computational experiments are used to simulate across multiple scenarios for evaluation and decision-making regarding the validity of potentially deceptive scientific documents. Factors influencing the human agent behaviors in the model were identified through a human subject experiment that was conducted to evaluate and characterize decision making related to disinformation discernment. Correlation and regression analyses were used to translate insights from the human subjects experiment to inform the parameterization of agent features and scenario development. Three scenarios were evaluated with the agent-based models to help evaluate the replicability of the simulations (validation analysis) and assess the influence of human agent and document features (sensitivity analyses). A replication of the human participant experiment demonstrated that the agent-based simulations compare favorably to empirical findings. The agent-based modeling was then used to conduct sensitivity analysis on the accuracy of deception detection as a function of document proportions and human agent features. Results indicate that precision values are adversely impacted when the proportion of deceptive documents is lower in the overall sample, whereas recall values are more sensitive to changes in human agent features. These findings indicate important nuances in accuracy evaluations that should be further considered (including consideration of potential alternate metrics) in future agent-based models of disinformation. Additional areas for future exploration include extension of simulations to consider other ways to align the agent-based model design with psychological theory and inclusion of agent-agent interactions, especially as it pertains to sharing of scientific information within an organizational context.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Analysis of conical slump shape reconstructed from stereovision images for yield stress prediction

Highlights: • Conical slump model tends to underpredict yield stress of material by slump height. • Profiles of slumped materials were reconstructed from stereovision images. • Actual profiles were compared to those predicted by cone and cylinder model. • The cause of deviation lies in the cylinder-like behaviour of conical slumping. • The model of equivalent cylinder could give an accurate yield stress value. Slump cones are widely utilised to evaluate the workability of cement materials owing to their simplicity. Analytical models have been established to relate this empirical value to the yield stress. However, they tend to be less effective for the cone and more valid for cylinder slumps. The cause of this deviation is yet to be fully understood. In this work, more details were sought from slump profiles using stereovision technology. A direct comparison of the predicted shapes based on conical model as well as cylindrical model to actual shapes was undertaken. The visual illustration clearly indicated that conical slumping shows a cylinder-like behaviour, and the slumped shapes in cone tests agree well with those predicted by an equivalent cylinder. By converting to cylindrical dimensionless units, the conical slump height can provide an accurate yield stress. The results suggest that the theory is valid if the slumping behaviour is effectively assumed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evaporation from thin porous Coatings: Pore size effects and predictive equation for homogeneous coatings

Evaporation of small water droplets on solids is hindered because surface tension pulls the droplet into a spherical cap that has a small perimeter. Our solution is to coat a solid with a very thin, porous layer into which the droplet flows to create a large-area disk with concomitant high rate of evaporation. We investigate evaporation by varying factors that have not been previously considered: pore size and distribution, contact angle, temperature, and relative humidity (RH). A larger pore size resulted in faster evaporation, which we explain through faster transport within the coating. Even faster evaporation occurred for a bilayer structure with small particles on the air side and larger particles on the solid side. Further, the water advancing contact angle had an insignificant effect in the range from < 10° through to 60°. Our results for different pore sizes, temperature, humidity, and contact angle all collapse onto a single curve when appropriately normalized. This validates an equation that can be used for the evaporation from a homogeneous coating that depends only one empirical factor and the droplet volume. Since the volume is often user-controlled, we envisage that this equation can be used to predict evaporation and guide design of fast-drying coatings.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Unusual layer-by-layer growth of epitaxial oxide islands during Cu oxidation

Elucidating metal oxide growth mechanisms is essential for precisely designing and fabricating nanostructured oxides with broad applications in energy and electronics. However, current epitaxial oxide growth methods are based on macroscopic empirical knowledge, lacking fundamental guidance at the nanoscale. Using correlated in situ environmental transmission electron microscopy, statistically-validated quantitative analysis, and density functional theory calculations, we show epitaxial Cu 2 O nano-island growth on Cu is layer-by-layer along Cu 2 O(110) planes, regardless of substrate orientation, contradicting classical models that predict multi-layer growth parallel to substrate surfaces. Growth kinetics show cubic relationships with time, indicating individual oxide monolayers follow Frank-van der Merwe growth whereas oxide islands follow Stranski-Krastanov growth. Cu sources for island growth transition from step edges to bulk substrates during oxidation, contrasting with classical corrosion theories which assume subsurface sources predominate. Our results resolve alternative epitaxial island growth mechanisms, improving the understanding of oxidation dynamics critical for advanced manufacturing at the nanoscale.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Prevalence and scalable control of localized networks

The ability to control network dynamics is essential for ensuring desirable functionality of many technological, biological, and social systems. Such systems often consist of a large number of network elements, and controlling large-scale networks remains challenging because the computation and communication requirements increase prohibitively fast with network size. Here, we introduce a notion of network locality that can be exploited to make the control of networks scalable, even when the dynamics are nonlinear. We show that network locality is captured by an information metric and is almost universally observed across real and model networks. In localized networks, the optimal control actions and system responses are both shown to be necessarily concentrated in small neighborhoods induced by the information metric. This allows us to develop localized algorithms for determining network controllability and optimizing the placement of driver nodes. This also allows us to develop a localized algorithm for designing local feedback controllers that approach the performance of the corresponding best global controllers, while incurring a computational cost orders-of-magnitude lower. Here, we validate the locality, performance, and efficiency of the algorithms in Kuramoto oscillator networks, as well as three large empirical networks: synchronization dynamics in the Eastern US power grid, epidemic spreading mediated by the global air-transportation network, and Alzheimer’s disease dynamics in a human brain network. Taken together, our results establish that large networks can be controlled with computation and communication costs comparable to those for small networks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

$S$ Hmax orientation in the Alpine region from observations of stress-induced anisotropy of nonlinear elasticity

The orientation of $S$ Hmax is commonly estimated from in situ borehole breakouts and earthquake focal mechanisms. Borehole measurements are expensive, and therefore sparse, and earthquake measurements can only be made in regions with many well-characterized earthquakes. Here, we derive the stress-field orientation using stress-induced anisotropy in nonlinear elasticity. In this method, we measure the strain derivative of velocity as a function of azimuth. We use a natural pump-probe (NPP) approach which consists of measuring elastic wave speed using empirical Green’s functions (probe) at different points of the earth tidal strain cycle (pump). The approach is validated using a larger data set in the Northern Alpine Foreland region where the orientation of maximum horizontal compressive stress is known from borehole breakouts and drilling-induced fractures. The technique resolves NNW-SSW to N-S directed $S$ Hmax which is in good agreement with conventional methods and the recent crustal stress model. We confirm that the NPP method can be applied to dense large-scale seismic arrays. The technique is then applied to the Southern Alps to understand the contemporary stress pattern associated with the ongoing deformation due to counterclockwise rotation of the Adriatic plate with respect to the European plate. Our results explain why the two major faults in Northeastern Italy, the Giudicarie Fault and the Periadriatic Line (Pustertal–Gailtal Fault) are currently inactive, while the currently acting stress field allows faults in Slovenia to deform actively. We have demonstrated that the pump-probe method has the potential to fill in the measurement gap left by conventional approaches, both in terms of regional coverage and in depth.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Refractive index of lithium fluoride at high dynamic stresses

Alkali halides are prototypical ionic solids whose refractive index is a fundamental property related to their lattice structure and ionic polarizability. In particular, lithium fluoride (LiF) has the largest band gap of any known transparent material and maintains transparency at high pressures, making it well suited for use as an optical window in dynamic compression experiments. While empirical fits to the measured density dependence of the refractive index have been provided, a model that is valid over the entire pressure range of experiments and based on a polarization-based theoretical description is lacking. We present a refractive index model for dynamically compressed LiF based on the Lorentz-Lorenz equation, where the molecular polarizability is determined using a single oscillator model with a strain polarizability parameter Λ=0.73. Here, we show that our modeling approach provides an excellent match to the LiF refractive index data for both shock and ramp compression experiments to 900 GPa (density compression greater than threefold). Additionally, updated fits are provided to determine the refractive index correction for LiF windows used in dynamic compression experiments.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Data-driven approach to parameterize SCAN + U for an accurate description of 3 d transition metal oxide thermochemistry

Semilocal density-functional theory (DFT) methods exhibit significant errors for the phase diagrams of transition-metal oxides that are caused by an incorrect description of molecular oxygen and the large self-interaction error in materials with strongly localized electronic orbitals. Empirical and semiempirical corrections based on the DFT + U method can reduce these errors, but the parameterization and validation of the correction terms remains an on-going challenge. Here we develop a systematic methodology to determine the parameters and to statistically assess the results by considering interlinked thermochemical data across a set of transition metal compounds. We consider three interconnected levels of correction terms: (1) a constant oxygen binding correction, (2) Hubbard-U correction, and (3) DFT/DFT + U compatibility correction. The parameterization is expressed as a unified optimization problem. We demonstrate this approach for 3d transition metal oxides, considering a target set of binary and ternary oxides. With a total of 37 measured formation enthalpies taken from the literature, the dataset is augmented by the reaction energies of 1710 unique reactions that were derived from the formation energies by systematic enumeration. To ensure a balanced dataset across the available data, the reactions were grouped by their similarity using clustering and suitably weighted. The parameterization is validated using leave-one-out cross validation (CV), a standard technique for the validation of statistical models. We apply the methodology to the strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) density functional. Based on the CV score, the error of binary (ternary) oxide formation energies is reduced by 40% (75%) to 0.10 (0.03) eV/atom. A simplified correction scheme that does not involve SCAN/SCAN + U compatibility terms still achieves an error reduction of 30% (25%). The method and tools demonstrated here can be applied to other classes of materials or to parameterize the corrections to optimize DFT + U performance for other target physical properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Seasonal and Interspecific Variation in Frugivory by a Mixed Resident-Migrant Overwintering Songbird Community

Many temperate passerine bird species switch from diets of mostly invertebrates in the spring and summer to diets that include fruit and seeds in the fall and winter. However, relatively few studies have quantified diet composition or the extent of seasonal shifts during the non-breeding period, particularly among species and across communities with both residents and migrants. We measured carbon and nitrogen stable isotope values in food items (fruits, C3 and C4 seeds, and insects from various trophic levels and plant communities) and in multiple tissues (feathers and plasma/whole blood) from 11 species of songbirds wintering in the southeastern U.S. We combined these diet and tissue values with empirically derived discrimination factors and used concentration-dependent mixing models to quantify seasonal diet shifts. We also validated mixing model results with data from fecal samples. Diets in this bird community, as delineated N and C isotopic space, diverged in the fall and winter relative to the summer as consumption of fruits and seeds increased. Across this songbird community, estimated contributions of fruit to plasma/whole blood increased from 16.2 ± 7.5% in the fall (mean ± SD; range: 4–26%) to 21.7 ± 10.3% (range: 9–37%) in the winter, while contributions of seeds increased from 29.4 ± 2.6% (range: 28–32%) in the fall to 36.6 ± 4.8% (range: 32–42%) in the winter. Fecal data showed qualitatively similar trends to mixing models, but consistently estimated higher contributions of fruit. Our work indicates that fruits and seeds constitute substantial sources of sustenance for non-breeding songbirds, there is considerable separation of resource use among species in the fall and winter, and fecal estimates of contributions to songbird tissues should be interpreted cautiously.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Going beyond BEM with BEM: an insight into dynamic inflow effects on floating wind turbines

Blade element momentum (BEM) theory is the backbone of many industry-standard wind turbine aerodynamic models. To be applied to a broader set of engineering problems, BEM models have been extended since their inception and now include several empirical corrections. These models have benefitted from decades of development and refinement and have been extensively used and validated, proving their adequacy in predicting aerodynamic forces of horizontal-axis wind turbine rotors in most scenarios. However, the analysis of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) introduces new sets of challenges, especially if new-generation large and flexible machines are considered. In fact, due to the combined action of wind and waves and their interaction with the turbine structure and control system, these machines are subject to unsteady motion and thus unsteady inflow on the wind turbine's blades, which could put BEM models to the test. Consensus has not been reached on the accuracy limits of BEM in these conditions. This study contributes to the ongoing research on the topic by systematically comparing four different aerodynamic models, ranging from BEM to computational fluid dynamics, in an attempt to shed light on the unsteady aerodynamic phenomena that are at stake in FOWTs and whether BEM is able to model them appropriately. Simulations are performed on the UNAFLOW 1:75 scale rotor during imposed harmonic surge and pitch motion. Experimental results are available for these conditions and are used for baseline validation. The rotor is analyzed in both rated operating conditions and low wind speeds, where unsteady aerodynamic effects are expected to be more pronounced. Results show that BEM, despite its simplicity, can adequately model the aerodynamics of FOWTs in most conditions if augmented with a dynamic inflow model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Commercialization of the NLR Hydrogen Wide Area Monitor (HyWAM): Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

Hydrogen wide area monitoring refers to the temporal and quantitative 3-dimenasional spatial profiling of hydrogen plumes following either intentional or unintentional hydrogen releases. A hydrogen wide area monitor (HyWAM) would have applications as a research tool, for example to provide empirical data on the behavior of hydrogen dispersions following a release, which in turn can be used to validate modelling studies. Support of modeling studies and commercial applications are interrelated, since modeling can serve to guide HyWAM deployment for enhanced safety within medium to large scale hydrogen operations, such as those envisioned by H2@Scale.

08 HYDROGEN↗

CFD modeling of an arc-heated jet

On the basis of state-of-the-art numerical techniques and physical models, a new CFD program is developed for the simulation of a high-enthalpy reacting ionized thermally relaxing nitrogen plasma in a cylindrical plenum chamber. A preliminary validation by comparison with experimental results was obtained. The algorithm is shown to be very efficient, and the empirical modeling gave results of practical use for the configuration studied.

Rostand, Phillipe↗

A new criterion for bar-forming instability in rapidly rotating gaseous and stellar systems. 2: Nonaxisymmetric form

We have previously introduced the parameter alpha as an indicator of stability to m = 2 nonaxisymmetric modes in rotating, self-gravitating, axisymmetric, gaseous (alpha less than or approximately equal to 0.34) and stellar (alpha less than or approximately equal to 0.25) systems. This parameter can be written as alpha = (ft/2)(exp 1/2), where t is defined as T/(absolute value of W), T is the total rotational kinetic energy, W is the total gravitational potential energy, and f is a function characteristic of the topology/connectedness and the geometric shape of a system. In this paper, we extend the stability criterion to nonaxisymmetric equilibrium systems by determining empirically the appropriate form of the function f for ellipsoids and elliptical disks and cylinders. We test the validity of this extension of the stability indicator alpha by considering its predictions for previously published, gaseous and stellar, nonaxisymmetric models. The formulation and critical values account accurately for the stability properties of m =2 modes in gaseous Riemann S-type ellipsoids (including the Jacobi and Dedekind ellipsoids) and elliptical Riemann disks as well as in stellar elliptical Freeman disks and cylinders: all these systems are dynamically stable except the stellar elliptical Freeman disks that exhibit a relatively small region of m = 2 dynamical instability. A partial disagreement in the case of stellar Freeman ellipsoids in maximum rotation may be due to the fact that the region of instability has not been previously determined with sufficient accuracy.

Christodoulou, Dimitris M.↗

Validation of Slosh Modeling Approach Using STAR-CCM+

Without an adequate understanding of propellant slosh, the spacecraft attitude control system may be inadequate to control the spacecraft or there may be an unexpected loss of science observation time due to higher slosh settling times. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is used to model propellant slosh. STAR-CCM+ is a commercially available CFD code. This paper seeks to validate the CFD modeling approach via a comparison between STAR-CCM+ liquid slosh modeling results and experimental, empirically, and analytically derived results. The geometries examined are a bare right cylinder tank and a right cylinder with a single ring baffle.

STAR-CCM+↗

Development and Evaluation of the Raindrop Size Distribution Parameters for the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement Mission Ground Validation Program

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission ground validation program uses dual-polarization radar moments to estimate raindrop size distribution (DSD) parameters, the mass-weighted mean drop diameter Dmass, and normalized intercept parameter NW, to validate the GPM Core Observatory–derived DSD parameters. The disdrometer-based Dmass and NW are derived through empirical relationships between Dmass and differential reflectivity ZDR, and between NW, reflectivity ZH, and Dmass. This study employs large datasets collected from two-dimensional video disdrometers (2DVD) during six different field studies to derive the requisite empirical relationships. The uncertainty of the derived Dmass(ZDR) relationship is evaluated through comparisons of 2DVD-calculated and ZDR-estimated Dmass, where ZDR is calculated directly from 2DVD observations. Similarly, the uncertainty of the NW(ZH, Dmass) relationship is evaluated through 2DVD-calculated and Dmass and ZH-estimated NW, where Dmass and ZH are directly calculated from 2DVD observations. This study also presents the sensitivity of Dmass(ZDR) relationships to climate regime and to disdrometer type after developing three additional Dmass(ZDR) relationships from second-generation Particle Size Velocity (PARSIVEL2) disdrometer (P2) observations collected in the Pacific Northwest, in Iowa, and at Kwajalein Atoll in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The application of P2-derived Dmass(ZDR) relationship based on precipitation in the northwestern United States to P2 observations collected over the tropical ocean resulted in the highest error among comparisons of the three datasets.

Ali Tokay↗

Cluster cosmology with anisotropic boosts: validation of a novel forward modelling analysis and application on SDSS redMaPPer clusters

We present a novel analysis for cluster cosmology that fully forward models the abundances, weak lensing, and the clustering of galaxy clusters. Our analysis notably includes an empirical model for the anisotropic boosts impacting the lensing and clustering signals of optical clusters. These boosts arise from a preferential selection of clusters surrounded by anisotropic large-scale structure, a consequence of the limited discrimination between line-of-sight interlopers and true cluster members offered by photometric surveys. We validate our analysis via a blind cosmology challenge on mocks, and find that we can obtain tight and unbiased cosmological constraints without informative priors or external calibrations on any of our model parameters. We then apply our analysis on the SDSS redMaPPer clusters, and find results favoring low Ωm and high σ8, combining to yield the lensing strength constraint $S_8 = 0.715_{-0.021}^{+0.024}$. We investigate potential drivers behind these results through a series of post-unblinding tests, noting that our results are consistent with existing cluster cosmology constraints but clearly inconsistent with other CMB/LSS based cosmology results. From these tests, we find hints that a suppression in the cluster lensing signal may be driving our results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Comparative Analysis of Empirical and Machine Learning Models for Chla Extraction Using Sentinel-2 and Landsat OLI Data: Opportunities, Limitations, and Challenges

Remote retrieval of near-surface chlorophyll-a (Chla) concentration in small inland waters is challenging due to substantial optical interferences of various water constituents and uncertainties in the atmospheric correction (AC) process. Although various algorithms have been developed to estimate Chla from moderate-resolution terrestrial missions (∼10–60 m), the production of both accurate distribution maps and time series of Chla has proven challenging, limiting the use of remote analyses for lake monitoring. Here, we develop a support vector regression (SVR) model, which uses satellite-derived remote-sensing reflectance spectra () from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 images as input for Chla retrieval in a representative eutrophic prairie lake, Buffalo Pound Lake (BPL), Saskatchewan, Canada. Validated against in situ Chla from seven ice-free seasons (N ∼ 200; 2014–2020), the SVR model outperformed both locally tuned, -fed empirical models (Normalized Difference Chlorophyll Index, 2- and 3-band, and OC3) and Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) by 15–65%, while exhibiting comparable performance to a locally trained MDN, with an error of ∼35%. Comparison of Chla retrieval models, AC processors (iCOR, ACOLITE), and radiometric products (Rayleigh-corrected, surface, and top-of-atmosphere reflectance) showed that the best Chla maps and optimal time series (up to 100 mg m−3) were produced using a coupled SVR-iCOR system.

algal blooms↗