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At least 343 records · Page 19

Deformation and strength of mantle relevant garnets: Implications for the subduction of basaltic-rich crust

Garnet is an important mineral phase in the upper mantle as it is both a key component in bulk mantle rocks, and a primary phase at high pressure within subducted basalt. In this work, we focus on the strength of garnet and the texture that develops within garnet during accommodation of differential deformational strain. We use X-ray diffraction in a radial geometry to analyze texture development in situ in three garnet compositions under pressure at 300 K: a natural garnet (Prp 60 Alm 37 ) to 30 GPa, and two synthetic majorite-bearing compositions (Prp 59 Maj 41 and Prp 42 Maj 58 ) to 44 GPa. All three garnets develop a modest (100) texture at elevated pressure under axial compression. Elasto-viscoplastic self-consistent (EVPSC) modeling suggests that two slip systems are active in the three garnet compositions at all pressures studied: {110}<$1\bar{1}1$> and {001}<110>. We determine a flow strength of ~5 GPa at pressures between 10 to 15 GPa for all three garnets; these values are higher than previously reported yield strengths measured on natural and majoritic garnets. Strengths calculated using the experimental lattice strain differ from the strength generated from those calculated using EVPSC. Prp 67 Alm 33 , Prp 59 Maj 41 , and Prp 42 Maj 58 are of comparable strength to each other at room temperature, which indicates that majorite substitution does not greatly affect the strength of garnets. Additionally, all three garnets are of similar strength as lower mantle phases such as bridgmanite and ferropericlase, suggesting that garnet may not be notably stronger than the surrounding lower mantle/deep upper mantle phases at the base of the upper mantle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Dynamic global vegetation models underestimate net CO 2 flux mean and inter-annual variability in dryland ecosystems

Despite their sparse vegetation, dryland regions exert a huge influence over global biogeochemical cycles because they cover more than 40% of the world surface (Schimel 2010 Science 327 418–9). It is thought that drylands dominate the inter-annual variability (IAV) and long-term trend in the global carbon (C) cycle (Poulter et al 2014 Nature 509 600–3, Ahlstrom et al 2015 Science 348 895–9, Zhang et al 2018 Glob. Change Biol. 24 3954–68). Projections of the global land C sink therefore rely on accurate representation of dryland C cycle processes; however, the dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) used in future projections have rarely been evaluated against dryland C flux data. Here, we carried out an evaluation of 14 DGVMs (TRENDY v7) against net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data from 12 dryland flux sites in the southwestern US encompassing a range of ecosystem types (forests, shrub- and grasslands). We find that all the models underestimate both mean annual C uptake/release as well as the magnitude of NEE IAV, suggesting that improvements in representing dryland regions may improve global C cycle projections. Across all models, the sensitivity and timing of ecosystem C uptake to plant available moisture was at fault. Spring biases in gross primary production (GPP) dominate the underestimate of mean annual NEE, whereas models' lack of GPP response to water availability in both spring and summer monsoon are responsible for inability to capture NEE IAV. Errors in GPP moisture sensitivity at high elevation forested sites were more prominent during the spring, while errors at the low elevation shrub and grass-dominated sites were more important during the monsoon. We propose a range of hypotheses for why model GPP does not respond sufficiently to changing water availability that can serve as a guide for future dryland DGVM developments. Our analysis suggests that improvements in modeling C cycle processes across more than a quarter of the Earth's land surface could be achieved by addressing the moisture sensitivity of dryland C uptake.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stanford Thermal Earth Model for the Conterminous United States

Provided here are various forms of the Stanford Thermal Earth Model, as well as the data and methods used for its creation. The predictions produced by this model were visualized in two-dimensional spatial maps across the modeled depths (0-7 km) for the conterminous United States. The thermal earth model is made available as an application programming interface (API) and as feature layers on ArcGIS, which are both provided via links below. A data-driven spatial interpolation algorithm based on physics-informed graph neural networks was used to develop these national temperature-at-depth maps. The model satisfied the three-dimensional heat conduction law by predicting subsurface temperature, surface heat flow, and rock thermal conductivity. Many physical quantities, including bottomhole temperature, depth, geographic coordinates, elevation, sediment thickness, magnetic anomaly, gravity anomaly, gamma-ray flux of radioactive elements, seismicity, and electric conductivity were used as model inputs. Surface heat flow, temperature, and thermal conductivity predictions were constructed for depths of 0-7 km at an interval of 1 km with spatial resolution of 18 km2 per grid cell. The model showed superior temperature, surface heat flow and thermal conductivity mean absolute errors of 4.8C, 8.1 mW/m2 and 0.07 W/(C-m), respectively..

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Modeling Spatial Distribution of Snow Water Equivalent by Combining Meteorological and Satellite Data with Lidar Maps

Abstract An accurate characterization of the water content of snowpack, or snow water equivalent (SWE), is necessary to quantify water availability and constrain hydrologic and land surface models. Recently, airborne observations (e.g., lidar) have emerged as a promising method to accurately quantify SWE at high resolutions (scales of ∼100 m and finer). However, the frequency of these observations is very low, typically once or twice per season in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. Here, we present a machine learning framework that is based on random forests to model temporally sparse lidar-derived SWE, enabling estimation of SWE at unmapped time points. We approximated the physical processes governing snow accumulation and melt as well as snow characteristics by obtaining 15 different variables from gridded estimates of precipitation, temperature, surface reflectance, elevation, and canopy. Results showed that, in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado, our framework is capable of modeling SWE with a higher accuracy when compared with estimates generated by the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS). The mean value of the coefficient of determination R 2 using our approach was 0.57, and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) was 13 cm, which was a significant improvement over SNODAS (mean R 2 = 0.13; RMSE = 20 cm). We explored the relative importance of the input variables and observed that, at the spatial resolution of 800 m, meteorological variables are more important drivers of predictive accuracy than surface variables that characterize the properties of snow on the ground. This research provides a framework to expand the applicability of lidar-derived SWE to unmapped time points. Significance Statement Snowpack is the main source of freshwater for close to 2 billion people globally and needs to be estimated accurately. Mountainous snowpack is highly variable and is challenging to quantify. Recently, lidar technology has been employed to observe snow in great detail, but it is costly and can only be used sparingly. To counter that, we use machine learning to estimate snowpack when lidar data are not available. We approximate the processes that govern snowpack by incorporating meteorological and satellite data. We found that variables associated with precipitation and temperature have more predictive power than variables that characterize snowpack properties. Our work helps to improve snowpack estimation, which is critical for sustainable management of water resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Physically-based control-oriented modeling for turbocharged stoichiometric spark-ignited engine with cooled EGR and flexible VVT systems

Accurate estimation and prediction of engine gas exchange system and in-cylinder conditions are critical for spark-ignited engine control and diagnostic algorithm development. In this paper, a physically-based, control-oriented model for a 2.8 l turbocharged, variable valve timing (VVT) and low pressure (LP) exhaust gas recirculation (EGR)-utilizing SI engine was developed. The model includes the impact of modulation to any combination of 10 actuators, including the throttle valve, compressor bypass valve, fueling rate, waste-gate, LP EGR valve, number of deactivated cylinders, intake valve open (IVO) timing, intake valve close (IVC) timing, exhaust valve open (EVO) timing and exhaust valve close (EVC) timing. The accuracy of the model in capturing engine dynamics was demonstrated by validating it against high-fidelity engine GT-Power simulation results for various drive cycles, particularly emphasizing elevated loads. In comparison to the open literature, novel contributions of the effort described in this paper includes in-cylinder gas composition modeling and turbine-out pressure estimation.

Zhang, Xu↗

Model‐Based Interpretation of Solute Exports and Carbon Partitioning During Shale Weathering in a Mountainous Hillslope

The weathering of sedimentary rocks in high-elevation catchments influences freshwater quality and the global carbon cycle. While individual biogeochemical mechanisms involved in this process are relatively well understood, quantifying their contributions to solute export and carbon fluxes under natural, transient conditions remains challenging. Here, we implement a numerical multidimensional and multiphase model to simulate coupled hydrological and biogeochemical processes in a shale-underlain, snow-dominated hillslope in the Rocky Mountains, Colorado. The model captures the dynamic interplay between soil respiration, mineral weathering, and climate-driven hydrological forcing, reproducing observed soil CO 2 dynamics, groundwater chemistry, and subsurface flow. Our results reveal that seasonal snowmelt enhances carbonate weathering by promoting the infiltration of CO 2 -rich water to depth, while pyrite oxidation is primarily sensitive to low water saturation that facilitates O 2 diffusion through the regolith. Topography modulates the spatial distribution of shale weathering, as steeper slopes enhance lateral drainage, favoring the delivery of reactants to greater depths. While shale weathering at our site acts as a transient carbon sink, with silicates and carbonates buffering acidity and promoting atmospheric CO 2 consumption (1% of soil-derived CO 2 ), the exported dissolved inorganic carbon is predominantly geogenic (∼73%). Consequently, when accounting for long-term marine carbonate precipitation. The current weathering regime represents a net source of carbon to the atmosphere. The oxidation of pyrite and petrogenic organic carbon together release approximately 0.9 mol·m −2 ·yr −1 of CO 2 . Our findings highlight the role of topography, hydroclimate, and the coupling between acid-base reactions in shaping the carbon balance and the solute exports in mountainous critical zones.

carbon cycling↗

Enabling Low-Temperature (LTP) Ignition Technologies for Multi-Mode Engines through the Development of a Validated High-Fidelity LTP Model for Predicative Simulations Tools

The goal of multi-mode engine architectures is to extend current lean-burn dilution limits with renewable fuels, which requires spark plugs to deposit high energies (hundreds of mJ) in order to initiate ignition and complete combustion. At elevated energy deposition rates, spark plugs experience increased electrode erosion and thermal losses, which ultimately shortens the spark-plug lifetime and lowers ignition efficiency. As such, in order to safeguard the efficiency gains of multi-mode concepts, new and improved ignition technologies are required. Recently, non-equilibrium low-temperature plasmas (LTP) have been shown to promote energy-efficient ignition via quenching and transport of electronically excited atoms and molecules, selective radical production and fast heating of hydrocarbon/air mixtures [1-2]. Thus, LTP is seen as a technology that can potentially improve the energy extraction efficiency of fuels, while enabling kinetically controlled combustion modes towards fuel leaner conditions to realize current DOE VTO goals of improving the sustainability of future mobility [3]. Although many previous studies have demonstrated the efficacy of plasma-assisted ignition to enhance combustion, the detailed enhancement mechanisms remain largely unknown, especially for oxygenated fuels and at elevated pressures that are most relevant to practical engine conditions. These barriers hinder the development of accurate and comprehensive numerical models that seek to describe LTP-based ignition in existing engine design software tools and methods. Current state-of-the-art simulation capabilities for LTP ignition systems are in need of improvements since they deliver qualitative results only due to important limitations of existing approaches. Firstly, validated kinetic models with elementary steps for plasma discharges in oxygenated fuel/air mixtures of relevance to the transportation sector are required. Such kinetic models do not exist at present and will be developed and validated within this project. Secondly, plasma discharges and reactive mixture ignition are multi-scale, unsteady processes requiring high-performance numerical methods and software that execute efficiently on DOE supercomputers. Such software does not exist at present and will be developed and applied to practical LTP ignition scenarios as part of this project. Thirdly, experimental databases that are tailored to serve as benchmark in support of the development of predictive computational models of LTP ignition do not exist and will be part of this project.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Quantifying mean, variability, and uncertainty in indoor radon exposure in Pennsylvania using random forest and quantile regression forest models

Radon is a naturally occurring radioactive gas that poses a serious health risk as the primary cause of lung cancer in non-smokers. Despite the well-known adverse association with health outcomes, current radon exposure assessments are limited to county-level or average-level estimates, which fail to capture regional variability. This study uses Machine Learning models, including Random Forest (RF) and Quantile Regression Forest (QRF), to estimate the indoor radon concentrations at the ZCTA (Zip code tabulation area)-level and characterize uncertainties in model estimates. Incorporating geological, meteorological, and building-specific data, the models aim to improve radon risk assessment by capturing mean exposure, variability, and extreme concentration levels. Processed radon test data (n = 718,111) were analyzed using average, variability, and quantile prediction methods. Models that estimate the average radon exposure at the ZCTA-level can yield promising model-fit results, but they do not capture the underlying variability of indoor radon exposure within a ZCTA. We utilize volatility analyses to identify characteristics indicative of high variability of indoor radon exposure. We also show that a QRF model can be used to estimate upper quantiles of residential radon exposure, thereby uncovering localized areas of elevated exposure that were not apparent in mean estimates. The results highlighted the need for a deep characterization of exposure risk and show that regions with moderate average exposure levels could still harbor extreme outliers with implications for evaluating health risks. Utilizing multiple radon exposure models allows for a deeper characterization of radon risk within a geographic area and can better identify high-risk areas. The results from this study provide a foundation for developing mitigation strategies and examining associations between radon exposure and health outcomes at fine scales. Future research should extend the geographic scope and incorporate additional environmental risk factors to establish a comprehensive framework for risk assessment.

Lee, Heechan [ORNL]↗

Description and Demonstration of the Coupled Community Earth System Model v2 – Community Ice Sheet Model v2 (CESM2‐CISM2)

Abstract Earth system/ice‐sheet coupling is an area of recent, major Earth System Model (ESM) development. This work occurs at the intersection of glaciology and climate science and is motivated by a need for robust projections of sea‐level rise. The Community Ice Sheet Model version 2 (CISM2) is the newest component model of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). This study describes the coupling and novel capabilities of the model, including: (1) an advanced energy‐balance‐based surface mass balance calculation in the land component with downscaling via elevation classes; (2) a closed freshwater budget from ice sheet to the ocean from surface runoff, basal melting, and ice discharge; (3) dynamic land surface types; and (4) dynamic atmospheric topography. The Earth system/ice‐sheet coupling is demonstrated in a simulation with an evolving Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) under an idealized high CO 2 scenario. The model simulates a large expansion of ablation areas (where surface ablation exceeds snow accumulation) and a large increase in surface runoff. This results in an elevated freshwater flux to the ocean, as well as thinning of the ice sheet and area retreat. These GrIS changes result in reduced Greenland surface albedo, changes in the sign and magnitude of sensible and latent heat fluxes, and modified surface roughness and overall ice sheet topography. Representation of these couplings between climate and ice sheets is key for the simulation of ice and climate interactions.

Muntjewerf, Laura↗

Impact of Lateral Flow on Surface Water and Energy Budgets over the Southern Great Plains – A Modeling Study

As we see the horizontal grid spacing decrease, treatment of hydrologic processes in land surface models, such as the lateral flow of surface and subsurface flow, need to be explicitly represented. Unlike previous studies that mainly focused on the mountainous regions, in this study the offline WRF-Hydro model is employed to study the impact of lateral flow on soil moisture and energy fluxes over the relatively flat southern Great Plains (SGP). The vast amount of measurements over the SGP provide an unique opportunity to assess the model behavior. In addition, newly developed land surface properties and input forcing are ingested into the model, in an attempt to reduce uncertainties associated with the initial and boundary forcing and help to identify model deficiencies. Our results show that the more realistic inputs (parameters, soil types, forcing) lead to larger underestimation of latent heat flux and dry bias, indicating the existence of model structural uncertainty (embedded errors) in WRF-Hydro that need to be characterized to inform future model development efforts. Including lateral flow processes partly mitigates the model deficiencies in representing hydrologic processes and alleviates the dry bias. In particular, both surface and subsurface lateral flow increase soil moisture mainly over the lower elevations, except that subsurface flow also affects soil moisture over steeper terrains. Additional simulations are performed to assess the effect of routing resolution on model results. When LSM resolution is high, noticeable differences in soil moisture are produced between different routing resolutions especially over steep terrain. Whereas when LSM resolution is coarse, differences between routing resolutions become negligible, especially over flat terrain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The impact of simultaneous inoculation of Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Staphylococcus aureus , and Candida albicans on rodent burn wounds

Burn wound infection often involves a diverse combination of bacterial and fungal pathogens. In this study, we characterize the mixed species burn wound infection by inoculating the burn surface with 1 × 10 3/4/5 CFU of Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Staphylococcus aureus, and Candida albicans in a 1:1:1 ratio. Using the revised Walker–Mason scald burn rat model, 168 male Sprague-Dawley rats (350–450 g) subject to ~10% TBSA burn injury, with or without inoculation, were evaluated for 11 days after burn. In the wound, P. aeruginosa and S. aureus formed robust biofilms as determined by the bacterial tissue load, ~1 × 10 9 CFU/g, and expression of key biofilm genes. Interestingly, within 3 days C. albicans achieved tissue loads of ~1 × 10 6 CFU/g, but its numbers were significantly reduced beyond the limit of detection in the burn wound by day 7 in partial-thickness injuries and by day 11 in full-thickness injuries. The pathogenic biofilms contributed to burn depth progression, increased release of HMGB-1 into circulation from injured tissue, and significantly elevated the numbers of circulating innate immune cells (Neutrophils, Monocytes, and Basophils). This robust model of multi-species burn wound infection will serve as the basis for the development of new antimicrobials for combating biofilm-based wound infections.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Elevation distributed micro-climatology data in a coastal glaciated watershed

Air temperature, ground temperature and relative humidity data were collected in a longitudinal transect of the Nooksack watershed at varying elevations from 500 to 1800 m above sea level. Data were collected by anchoring sensors from trees above winter snow levels and shaded from direct solar radiation. Paired sensors were also buried 3 cm under ground near each air temperature sensor to determine snow absence or presence. Select sites included relative humidity sensors to indicate whether precipitation was occurring. Data were collected every 3-4 h from December 2015 to Sept 2018 (with ongoing collection). Code for analysis of daily mean, minimum, maximum, and temperature change with elevation (lapse rates) are available on Github (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3239539). The sensor download and intermediate data products are available on HydroShare at (http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/222e832d3df24dea9bae9bbeb6f4219d) with publicly accessible visualization available from the Nooksack Observatory at data.cuahsi.org. Hydrologic models are generally structured with a single annual average lapse rate parameter which assumes a linear temperature gradient with elevation. The daily data (2016-2018) is used as part of ongoing studies on the non-linear dynamics and temporal variability of temperature with elevation to improve assessments of watershed function and salmon habitat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Role of Evolving Interfacial Substrate Properties on Heterogeneous Cellulose Hydrolysis Kinetics

Interfacial enzyme reactions require formation of an enzyme–substrate complex at the surface of a heterogeneous substrate, but often multiple modes of enzyme binding and types of binding sites complicate analysis of their kinetics. Excess heterogeneous substrate is often used as a justification to model the substrate as unchanging, but using the study of the enzymatic hydrolysis of insoluble cellulose as an example, we argue that reaction rates are dependent on evolving substrate interfacial properties. We hypothesize that the relative abundance of binding sites on cellulose where hydrolysis can occur (productive binding sites) and binding sites where hydrolysis cannot be initiated or is inhibited (nonproductive binding sites) contribute to rate limitations. We show that the initial total number of productive binding sites (the productive binding capacity) determines the magnitude of the initial burst phase of cellulose hydrolysis, while productive binding site depletion explains overall hydrolysis kinetics. Furthermore, we show that irreversibly bound surface enzymes contribute to the depletion of productive binding sites. Our model shows that increasing the ratio of productive to nonproductive binding sites promotes hydrolysis, while maintaining an elevated productive binding capacity throughout conversion is key to preventing hydrolysis slowdown.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A real-time multiphysics model of a pressurized solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) for cyber-physical simulation

Solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOEC) can play important roles in integrated energy systems (IES) as the hydrogen production hub and the resilience energy hub. When tied to a microgrid with high renewable penetration, the SOEC is subjected to rapid load transitions in response to the intermittent renewable generations that occur not only in diurnal cycles but also in short timeframes (e.g., sub-minute). The cyber-physical simulation approach can derisk operability research but requires a real-time dynamic SOEC model. In the present work, a real-time multiphysics model for pressurized SOEC is developed and validated in the pressure range from 1.4 to 8bar. Further, the accuracy of the single repeating unit (SRU) assumption in SOEC stack simulation is quantified. A guidance of more than 45 cells in one SOEC stack is recommended to safely apply the SRU assumption. Modeling results suggest that at a given current density, more power is consumed by SOEC at elevated operating pressures. The anode air and cathode stream have major impacts on thermal management, highlighting the potential benefit of integrating SOEC with other thermal processes in IES. To achieve high hydrogen production efficiency, the SOEC could operate at the maximum endothermic point to maximize the use of thermal energy. The real-time execution of the developed SOEC model is also demonstrated, which only takes 0.1% of the fixed time step of 5ms. The developed model establishes the basis for cyber-physical simulation of SOEC hybrid systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Biogeochemistry simulations for the Salt Marsh Accretion Response to Temperature eXperiment (SMARTX)

Coastal ecosystems have been largely ignored in Earth system models but are important zones for carbon and nutrient processing. Interactions between water, microbes, soil, sediments, and vegetation are important for mechanistic representation of coastal processes and ecosystem function. To investigate the role of these feedbacks, we used a reactive transport model (PFLOTRAN) that has the capability to be connected to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). PFLOTRAN was used to incorporate redox reactions and track chemical species important for coastal ecosystems as well as define simple representations of vegetation dynamics. Our goal was to incorporate oxygen flux, salinity, pH, sulfur cycling, and methane production along with plant-mediated transport of gases and tidal flux. Using porewater profile and incubation data for model calibration and evaluation, we were able to create depth-resolved biogeochemical soil profiles for saltmarsh habitat and use this updated representation to simulate direct and indirect effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on subsurface biogeochemical cycling. We found that simply changing the partial pressure of CO2 or increasing temperature in the model did not fully reproduce observed changes in the porewater profile, but the inclusion of plant or microbial responses to CO2 and temperature manipulations was more accurate in representing porewater concentrations. This indicates the importance of characterizing tightly coupled vegetation-subsurface processes for developing predictive understanding and the need for measurement of plant-soil interactions on the same time scale to understand how hotspots or moments are generated.Included in this data package are PFLOTRAN input (PFLOTRAN input files and chemical database) files for simulating single column biogeochemistry, root, and tide interactions at the Global Change Research Wetland (Kirkpatrick Marsh; Edgewater, MD). The biogeochemical network includes soil organic matter decomposition, nitrogen, iron, and sulfur cycling, and methanogenesis. Reduced species can be oxidized and plant processes include oxygen and nutrient priming, methane release, and nutrient uptake.Inputs:TAI_database.dat - geochemical database for reactions, more information on database structure and variables can be found here https://www.pflotran.org/documentation/user_guide/cards/pages/geochemical_database.htmlswamp.in - input file for biogeochemical network in PFLOTRANswamp_eCO2.in - input file for biogeochemical network in PFLOTRAN with input gas partial pressures/concentrations adjusted for elevated CO2 treatmentsOutputs:swamp_obs_0.tec - hourly porewater concentrations from from multiple depths in the soil columnswamp_eCO2_obs_0.tec - hourly porewater concentrations from multiple depths in the soil column for elevated CO2 treatmentsPFLOTRAN code access: https://github.com/fmyuan/pflotran-elm-interface.git

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Achieving 50% Energy Savings in Chicago Homes: A Case Study for Advancing Equity and Climate Goals

Since 2019, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Elevate have collaborated to identify pathways to deep energy retrofits in Chicago's housing stock, document equity implications and co-benefits of this transition, and validate the findings by implementing retrofits in real Chicago homes. This document summarizes our analysis process to model advanced retrofit packages that lead to greater than 50% energy savings in Chicago homes. Based on these findings, we have also developed a roadmap with the City to guide implementation, and are deploying the recommended retrofit packages in real Chicago homes to realize these energy savings. This work was developed in collaboration with two key stakeholders - the City of Chicago and Commonwealth Edison (ComEd) - and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). NREL's Residential Buildings team maintains the best-in-class ResStock™ energy model of the U.S. residential building stock. For this work, we calibrated ResStock to Chicago's unique local housing stock to accurately simulate energy use in Chicago homes both for current conditions and with various retrofit scenarios. We simulated a wide range of potential building retrofits covering all aspects of residential energy use and then grouped these into packages based on energy and utility bill savings. ResStock can model diverse building types and housing characteristics, so we're able to observe the range of outcomes that might occur when these upgrades are deployed across the entire housing stock. We can then estimate potential energy savings from an advanced retrofit program on Chicago's housing stock by comparing the modeled energy use before versus after a retrofit. This novel version of ResStock, calibrated to Chicago with data from Elevate, can help City officials, ComEd, and other partners plan for community-scale decarbonization via residential retrofits. Specifically, this work contributes the following project goals: Develop a building retrofit prioritization strategy for Chicago single-family and 2- to 4-unit buildings; Identify neighborhoods and home types that have the highest potential for savings from electrification; and Assess the impact of advanced building retrofits on energy use, utility bills, and CO2 emissions at the city and building level. Although this study is specific to Chicago, its methods and learnings are applicable across the United States. These findings are especially notable for heat pumps and electrification retrofits in cold climates.

building energy modeling↗

Present and Future Changes in Land‐Atmosphere Coupling of Water and Energy Over Extratropical Forest Regions

Abstract Couplings between land and the near surface atmosphere are modulated by interactions between soil conditions, vegetation dynamics, turbulent fluxes, and atmospheric properties. How the land‐atmosphere coupling responds to warming and elevated CO 2 are important for understanding the land surface carbon, energy, and water cycles. In this work, we documented this coupled land‐atmosphere network based on observations and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) simulations over extratropical forest ecosystems. We employed a transfer entropy approach and novel network metrics to reveal patterns and strength of the land‐atmosphere coupling under historical conditions and a future high emission scenario (SSP585). We found that, in observations, the present‐day extratropical forest coupling network has high network connectivity (72%–88% of the targeted processes are coupled). E3SM reasonably captured the extratropical forest coupling network (modeled network connectivity was 81%–96%) and predicted that the coupling strength would significantly increase by 28% (±3%) under warming and elevated CO 2 conditions. Furthermore, E3SM factorial coupled experiments suggested that warming enhanced soil nitrogen mineralization favoring plant nitrogen uptake and vegetation growth were responsible for the strengthening future land‐atmosphere coupling. This work provides new metrics to analyze and document complex couplings for coupled earth system processes and highlights the important roles soil nutrient availability and biogeochemistry have on land‐atmosphere coupling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observation of Variations in Condensed Carbon Morphology Dependent on Composition B Detonation Conditions

Carbon particulates generated during detonation depend upon high explosive type, composition, and detonation conditions. Although explosive composition greatly affects particulates, the focus of this work is on how detonation geometries that induce much higher temperatures and pressures in the high explosive lead to differing particulate morphologies. In this study, two geometries were used: Detonations were initiated in Composition B cylinders at one end in conventional detonations and initiated at both ends to produce colliding detonations. Each of these detonations was observed on the sub-μs timescale using fast radiography capturing images of the front moving through the cylinder, and colliding detonation fronts in real-time. These imaging experiments were complemented with time-resolved small-angle x-ray scattering (SAXS) experiments that were able to observe and determine the varying condensed carbon morphologies at different locations and times in each detonation. The detonations could be timed in such a way that the spatial and temporal dependence of the carbon morphology could be superimposed onto radiography images collected at the same point in time. The complementary approach is able to show that the carbon condensates are much larger when formed in the elevated temperature and pressure conditions near the location of colliding detonation fronts. Thermochemical modeling suggests that these larger particulates form either in the diamond phase or on the liquidus line of the carbon phase diagram. The increase in size observed by SAXS may correlate well with the increased residence time deeply in the diamond phase. Finally, these particulates can be described as nano-sized phases with some surface texture or otherwise near-surface intra-particle heterogeneity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗