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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

Effects of Optimisation Parameters on Data-Driven Magnetofrictional Modelling of Active Regions

Context . The solar magnetic field plays an essential role in the formation, evolution, and dynamics of large-scale eruptive structures in the corona. The estimation of the coronal magnetic field, the ultimate driver of space weather, particularly in the ‘low’ and ‘middle’ corona, is presently limited due to practical difficulties. Data-driven time-dependent magnetofrictional modelling (TMFM) of active region magnetic fields has been proven to be a useful tool to study the corona. The input to the model is the photospheric electric field that is inverted from a time series of the photospheric magnetic field. Constraining the complete electric field, that is, including the non-inductive component, is critical for capturing the eruption dynamics. We present a detailed study of the effects of optimisation of the non-inductive electric field on the TMFM of AR 12473. Aims . We aim to study the effects of varying the non-inductive electric field on the data-driven coronal simulations, for two alternative parametrisations. By varying parameters controlling the strength of the non-inductive electric field, we wish to explore the changes in flux rope formation and their early evolution and other parameters, for instance, axial flux and magnetic field magnitude. Methods . We used the high temporal and spatial resolution cadence vector magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The non-inductive electric field component in the photosphere is critical for energising and introducing twist to the coronal magnetic field, thereby allowing unstable configurations to be formed. We estimated this component using an approach based on optimising the injection of magnetic energy. Results . Our data show that flux ropes are formed in all of the simulations except for those with the lower values of these optimised parameters. However, the flux rope formation, evolution and eruption time varies depending on the values of the optimisation parameters. The flux rope is formed and has overall similar evolution and properties with a large range of non-inductive electric fields needed to determine the non-inductive electric field component that is critical for energising and introducing twist to the coronal magnetic field. Conclusions . This study shows that irrespective of non-inductive electric field values, flux ropes are formed and erupted, which indicates that data-driven TMFM can be used to estimate flux rope properties early in their evolution without needing to employ a lengthy optimisation process.

A. Kumari↗
NASA NTRS1997

Predictive Modeling in Plasma Reactor and Process Design

Research continues toward the improvement and increased understanding of high-density plasma tools. Such reactor systems are lauded for their independent control of ion flux and energy enabling high etch rates with low ion damage and for their improved ion velocity anisotropy resulting from thin collisionless sheaths and low neutral pressures. Still, with the transition to 300 mm processing, achieving etch uniformity and high etch rates concurrently may be a formidable task for such large diameter wafers for which computational modeling can play an important role in successful reactor and process design. The inductively coupled plasma (ICP) reactor is the focus of the present investigation. The present work attempts to understand the fundamental physical phenomena of such systems through computational modeling. Simulations will be presented using both computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques and the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method for argon and chlorine discharges. ICP reactors generally operate at pressures on the order of 1 to 10 mTorr. At such low pressures, rarefaction can be significant to the degree that the constitutive relations used in typical CFD techniques become invalid and a particle simulation must be employed. This work will assess the extent to which CFD can be applied and evaluate the degree to which accuracy is lost in prediction of the phenomenon of interest; i.e., etch rate. If the CFD approach is found reasonably accurate and bench-marked with DSMC and experimental results, it has the potential to serve as a design tool due to the rapid time relative to DSMC. The continuum CFD simulation solves the governing equations for plasma flow using a finite difference technique with an implicit Gauss-Seidel Line Relaxation method for time marching toward a converged solution. The equation set consists of mass conservation for each species, separate energy equations for the electrons and heavy species, and momentum equations for the gas. The sheath is modeled by imposing the Bohm velocity to the ions near the walls. The DSMC method simulates each constituent of the gas as a separate species which would be analogous in CFD to employing separate species mass, momentum, and energy equations. All particles including electrons are moved and allowed to collide with one another with the stipulation that the electrons remain tied to the ions consistent with the concept of ambipolar diffusion. The velocities of the electrons are allowed to be modified during collisions and are not confined to a Maxwellian distribution. These benefits come at a price in terms of computational time and memory. The DSMC and CFD are made as consistent as possible by using similar chemistry and power deposition models. Although the comparison of CFD and DSMC is interesting, the main goal of this work is the increased understanding of high-density plasma flowfields that can then direct improvements in both techniques. This work is unique in the level of the physical models employed in both the DSMC and CFD for high-density plasma reactor applications. For example, the electrons are simulated in the present DSMC work which has not been done before for low temperature plasma processing problems. In the CFD approach, for the first time, the charged particle transport (discharge physics) has been self-consistently coupled to the gas flow and heat transfer.

Hash, D. B.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Final Targeting Strategy for the Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment 2 North Survey

The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment 2 (APOGEE-2) is a dual-hemisphere, near-infrared (NIR), spectroscopic survey with the goal of producing a chemodynamical mapping of the Milky Way. The targeting for APOGEE-2 is complex and has evolved with time. In this paper, we present the updates and additions to the initial targeting strategy for APOGEE-2N presented in Zasowski et al. (2017). These modifications come in two implementation modes: (i) “Ancillary Science Programs” competitively awarded to Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV PIs through proposal calls in 2015 and 2017 for the pursuit of new scientific avenues outside the main survey, and (ii) an effective 1.5 yr expansion of the survey, known as the Bright Time Extension (BTX), made possible through accrued efficiency gains over the first years of the APOGEE-2N project. For the 23 distinct ancillary programs, we provide descriptions of the scientific aims, target selection, and how to identify these targets within the APOGEE-2 sample. The BTX permitted changes to the main survey strategy, the inclusion of new programs in response to scientific discoveries or to exploit major new data sets not available at the outset of the survey design, and expansions of existing programs to enhance their scientific success and reach. After describing the motivations, implementation, and assessment of these programs, we also leave a summary of lessons learned from nearly a decade of APOGEE-1 and APOGEE-2 survey operations. Finally, a companion paper, F. Santana et al. (submitted; AAS29036), provides a complementary presentation of targeting modifications relevant to APOGEE-2 operations in the Southern Hemisphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2027

Conceptual design of highly-constrained splitters for the FFA@CEBAF energy upgrade study

The Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Lab is investigating a significant energy upgrade utilizing Fixed-Field Alternating-gradient (FFA) recirculating arcs. This upgrade requires the design of complex horizontal beam splitters to manage up to six concurrent beam passes. This paper presents the conceptual design of these splitters, which are subject to severe physical constraints imposed by the existing accelerator tunnel and multifaceted beam dynamics requirements for matching into the permanent-magnet FFA arcs. The design methodology, centered on multi-pass simulations in the Bmad toolkit, is detailed from the initial geometric layout through the advanced optics matching. Key results include a robust geometric arrangement that fits within the spatial boundaries and the development of multiple, flexible optics matching solutions. Furthermore, the design integrates a viable scheme for extracting high-energy beams for the experimental halls, a critical operational requirement. This work establishes a comprehensive and viable conceptual design, forming a baseline for future engineering and performance optimization studies.

Bodenstein, R.M. [Thomas Jefferson National Accele↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Open Cluster Chemical Abundances and Mapping Survey. VI. Galactic Chemical Gradient Analysis from APOGEE DR17

The goal of the Open Cluster Chemical Abundances and Mapping (OCCAM) survey is to constrain key Galactic dynamic and chemical evolution parameters by the construction and analysis of a large, comprehensive, uniform data set of infrared spectra for stars in hundreds of open clusters. This sixth contribution from the OCCAM survey presents analysis of SDSS/APOGEE Data Release 17 (DR17) results for a sample of stars in 150 open clusters, 94 of which we designate to be "high-quality" based on the appearance of their color–magnitude diagram. We find the APOGEE DR17-derived [Fe/H] values to be in good agreement with those from previous high-resolution spectroscopic open cluster abundance studies. Using a subset of the high-quality sample, the Galactic abundance gradients were measured for 16 chemical elements, including [Fe/H], for both Galactocentric radius ($R$ GC ) and guiding center radius ($R$ guide ). We find an overall Galactic [Fe/H] versus RGC gradient of -0.073 ± 0.002 dex kpc -1 over the range of 6 > $R$ GC < 11.5 kpc, and a similar gradient is found for [Fe/H] versus $R$ guide . Significant Galactic abundance gradients are also noted for O, Mg, S, Ca, Mn, Na, Al, K, and Ce. Our large sample additionally allows us to explore the evolution of the gradients in four age bins for the remaining 15 elements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1980

Head-up transition behavior of pilots with and without head-up display in simulated low-visibility approaches

To quantify head-up transition behavior with and without a flightpath type head-up display, eight rated B-727 pilots each flew 31 manual and coupled approaches in a simulator with B-727 dynamics and collimated model board external scene. Data were also obtained on the roll played by the head-up display in the coupled-to-manual transition. Various wind shears, low visibilities, and ceilings were tested along with unexpected misalignment between the runway and head-up display symbology. The symbolic format used was a conformal scene. Every pilot except one stayed head-up, flying with the display after descending below the ceiling. Without the display and as altitude decreased, the number of lookups from the instrument panel decreased and the duration of each one increased. No large differences in mean number or duration of transitions up or down were found during the head-up display runs comparing the no-misalignment with the lateral instrument landing system offset misalignment runs. The head-up display led to fewer transitions after the pilot made a decision to land or execute a missed approach. Without the display, pilots generally waited until they had descended below the ceiling to look outside the first time, but with it several pilots looked down at their panel at relatively high altitudes (if they looked down at all). Manual takeover of control was rapid and smooth both with and without the display which permitted smoother engine power changes.

Haines, R. F.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamically Learning Incentives for Load Control

As electrical generation becomes more distributed and volatile, and loads become more uncertain, controllability of distributed energy resources (DERs), regardless of their ownership status, will be necessary for grid reliability. Grid operators lack direct control over end-users' grid interactions, such as energy usage, but incentives can influence behavior -- for example, an end-user that receives a grid-driven incentive may adjust their consumption or expose relevant control variables in response. A key challenge in studying such incentives is the lack of data about human behavior, which usually motivates strong assumptions, such as distributional assumptions on compliance or rational utility-maximization. In this paper, we propose a general incentive mechanism in the form of a constrained optimization problem -- our approach is distinguished from prior work by modeling human behavior (e.g., reactions to an incentive) as an arbitrary unknown function. We propose feedback-based optimization algorithms to solve this problem that each leverage different amounts of information and/or measurements. We show that each converges to an asymptotically stable incentive with (near)-optimality guarantees given mild assumptions on the problem. Finally, we evaluate our proposed techniques in voltage regulation simulations on standard test beds. We test a variety of settings, including those that break assumptions required for theoretical convergence (e.g., convexity, smoothness) to capture realistic settings. In this evaluation, our proposed algorithms are able to find near-optimal incentives even when the reaction to an incentive is modeled by a theoretically difficult (yet realistic) function.

demand response↗
DOE OSTI2024

Chemical clocks: using otolith geochemistry to enhance estimation of age and growth of white hake (Urophycis tenuis)

The white hake (Urophycis tenuis) is a groundfish distributed throughout the Gulf of Maine. Catch advice is based on stock assessments done with age-based population dynamics models; however, otolith aging is challenging because of unclear growth increments. To address this concern, we compared the consistency of aging with counts of visual annuli to that of aging with cycles of elemental concentrations measured by using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. We tested the hypothesis that oscillations in both environmental conditions and internal physiology through time influence uptake of elements during otolith mineralization. Concentrations of manganese, in comparison with those of the other investigated trace elements (magnesium, strontium, and barium), had the most promising correlation with visual growth increments (~100% age agreement, ±1 year), offering an additional tool to enhance increment identification. In our examination of 550 otoliths collected during 2007–2021, we found that white hake lived a maximum of 10.3 years and exhibited sexual dimorphism in maximum length and age. By using generated von Bertalanffy growth functions, L(t)=110(1–e–0.113(t+0.45)) for males and L(t)=140(1–e–0.113(t–0.30)) for females (where L(t) is length at time t), size and age at maturity were calculated for males (37.4 cm in total length (TL), 3.3 years) and females (47.4 cm TL, 4.2 years). These results demonstrate that otolith geochemistry can be used to improve the accuracy and precision of the estimation of fish age and maturity, even for challenging species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2023

Insights on the Vulnerability of Antarctic Glaciers From the ISMIP6 Ice Sheet Model Ensemble and Associated Uncertainty

The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.

Hélène Seroussi↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fast and bright scintillators for ultrafast materials dynamics using 4th generation synchrotron

We present recent advances in fast and bright scintillators for ultrafast X-ray phase contrast imaging of dynamic materials experiments at the upgraded Advanced Photon Source (APS-U), a fourth generation synchrotron. APS-U enables hard X-ray imaging at frame rates of at least 13 MHz (corresponding to 77 ns or shorter interframe intervals), creating a new need for scintillators with faster response and higher light output than lutetium yttrium oxyorthosilicate (LYSO). For indirect imaging and diffraction with ultrafast cameras, commercial lanthanum bromide (LaBr3) and cerium bromide (CeBr3) are promising candidates. These materials exhibit decay times approximately a factor of two shorter than LYSO (around 40 ns) and lutetium oxyorthosilicate (LSO), while maintaining comparable light yield per incident X-ray photon. However, their implementation at APS-U requires addressing several challenges, including material limitations due to hygroscopicity, efficient optical coupling to imaging systems, and high quantum efficiency for conversion of scintillation light, predominantly at wavelengths below 400 nm, into detectable electronic signals. We report results from material characterization, detector integration and packaging, and beamline experiments of materials with impact. In addition, emerging scintillator classes, including perovskites and high-entropy materials, are discussed as potential alternatives for next-generation ultrafast X-ray diagnostics.

Wang, Zhehui [Los Alamos] (ORCID:0000000178264063)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Efficient bi-directional coupling of 3D computational fluid-particle dynamics and 1D Multiple Path Particle Dosimetry lung models for multiscale modeling of aerosol dosimetry

The development of predictive aerosol dosimetry models has been a major focus of environmental toxicology and pharmaceutical health research for decades. One-dimensional (1D) models successfully predict overall deposition averages but fail to accurately predict local deposition. Computational fluid-particle dynamics (CFPD) models provide site-specific predictions but at a computational cost that prohibits whole lung predictions. Thus, there is a need for developing multiscale strategies to provide a realistic subject-specific picture of the fate of inhaled aerosol in the lungs. CT-based 3D/CFPD models of the large airways were bidirectionally coupled with individualized 1D Navier-Stokes airflow and particle transport based upon the widely used Multiple Path Particle Dosimetry Model (MPPD). Distribution of airflows among lobes was adjusted by measured lobar volume changes observed in CT images between FRC and FRC + 1.5 L. Additionally, as a test of the effectiveness of the coupling procedures, deposition modeling of previous 1 µm aerosol exposure studies was performed. The complete coupled model was run for 3 breaths, with the computation-intense portion being the 3D CFD Lagrangian particle tracking calculation. The average deposition per breath was 11% in the combined multiscale model with site-specific doses available in the CFPD portion of the model and airway- or region-specific deposition available for the MPPD portion. In conclusion, the key methods developed in this study enable predictions of ventilation heterogeneities and aerosol deposition across the lungs that are not captured by 3D or 1D models alone. Overall, these methods can be used as the foundation for multi-scale modeling of the full respiratory system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic motion trajectory control with nanoradian accuracy for multi-element X-ray optical systems via laser interferometry

The past decades have witnessed the development of new X-ray beam sources with brightness growing at a rate surpassing Moore’s law. Current and upcoming diffraction limited and fully coherent X-ray beam sources, including multi-bend achromat based synchrotron sources and high repetition rate X-ray free electron lasers, puts increasingly stringent requirements on stability and accuracy of X-ray optics systems. Parasitic motion errors at sub-micro radian scale in beam transport and beam conditioning optics can lead to significant loss of coherence and brightness delivered from source to experiment. To address this challenge, we incorporated optical metrology based on interferometric length and angle sensing and real-time correction as part of the X-ray optics motion control system. A prototype X-ray optics system was constructed following the optical layout of a tunable X-ray cavity. On-line interferometric metrology enabled dynamical feedback to a motion control system to track and compensate for motion errors. The system achieved sub-microradian scale performance, as multiple optical elements are synchronously and continuously adjusted. This first proof of principle measurement demonstrated both the potential and necessity of incorporating optical metrology as part of the motion control architecture for large scale X-ray optical systems such as monochromators, delay lines, and in particular, X-ray cavity systems to enable the next generation cavity-based X-ray free electron lasers.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electromagnetic Energy-Assisted Thermal Conversion of Fossil-Based Hydrocarbons to Low-Cost Hydrogen

The goal of this project was to develop and optimize catalysts for methane decomposition, particularly focusing on regeneration via an electromagnetic energy-assisted mechanism, to produce hydrogen more cost-effectively compared to electrolysis routes. To achieve this goal, the project pursued several key objectives. The project began with the preparation and testing of various catalysts. A nickel-silica based catalyst was identified as the most promising material for the pyrolysis of methane into carbon and hydrogen. Kinetic parameters for methane decomposition were determined, aiding in computational modeling efforts. Structured catalysts were investigated, highlighting the need for frequent cleaning or regeneration to maintain performance, with methane conversion rates exceeding 70% in tube furnace tests. Computational fluid dynamics modeling was employed to optimize reactor designs and electrode angles, leading the project team to propose a multi-compartment thermal conversion system for larger setups. This modeling work was important in understanding reaction characteristics, carbon deposition rates, and temperature profiles under various conditions. A bench-scale reactor system was assembled to evaluate catalyst regeneration using electromagnetic energy-assisted mechanisms. Experiments demonstrated the potential for carbon removal, though further optimization is needed. The carbon produced from the methane conversion process was evaluated for potential use in lithium-ion battery electrodes. The carbon exhibited properties similar to commercially available high-purity multi-walled carbon nanotubes and nanofibers, with a carbon content greater than 95%. Coin cell batteries assembled with this carbon showed that lower replacement levels (10% to 33%) outperformed the control group, improving specific capacity density and stability. However, higher replacement levels (100%) demonstrated poorer performance, suggesting that excessive carbon substitution negatively impacts battery performance. These findings indicate the potential marketability of the produced carbon as a component in lithium-ion batteries, though further testing is necessary to confirm long-term advantages and disadvantages associated with the use of the carbon product. These results however justified further technoeconomic assessments to determine if the process can provide low-cost hydrogen. The economic feasibility and technical performance of methane decomposition for hydrogen production were assessed, focusing on three plant configurations: 100E (electrically heated), 100C (combustion heated using produced hydrogen), and PE-Hybrid (a combination of pyrolysis (indicating decomposition) and electrolysis). The Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) for the pyrolysis configurations was found to be approximately 25% lower than that of electrolysis. The 100E configuration had the lowest LCOH at $\$$3.12/kg. Including carbon product sales significantly improved the economics, with the 100C configuration achieving a negative LCOH of -$\$$0.35/kg. The PE-Hybrid configuration was not economically advantageous compared to pure pyrolysis plants due to its complexity and additional equipment requirements. Ultimately, methane pyrolysis presents a viable method for near carbon dioxide-free hydrogen production, with significant economic advantages over electrolysis, especially when considering the sale of carbon byproducts. The 100E and 100C configurations showed the most promise, with the choice between them ultimately depending on the prices of power and natural gas. In conclusion, this technology has the potential to lower hydrogen production costs by leveraging the methane decomposition process with the sale of valuable carbon byproducts. By optimizing catalyst performance and integrating electromagnetic energy-assisted regeneration, the process can achieve higher efficiency and economic viability, making it a competitive alternative to traditional hydrogen production methods.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER): Design and Development

During 2014 and 2015, NASA's Neutron star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) mission proceeded successfully through Phase C, Design and Development. An X-ray (0.2{12 keV) astrophysics payload destined for the International Space Station, NICER is manifested for launch in early 2017 on the Commercial Resupply Services SpaceX-11 flight. Its scientific objectives are to investigate the internal structure, dynamics, and energetics of neutron stars, the densest objects in the universe. During Phase C, flight components including optics, detectors, the optical bench, pointing actuators, electronics, and others were subjected to environmental testing and integrated to form the flight payload. A custom-built facility was used to co-align and integrate the X-ray \concentrator" optics and silicon-drift detectors. Ground calibration provided robust performance measures of the optical (at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center) and detector (at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology) subsystems, while comprehensive functional tests prior to payload-level environmental testing met all instrument performance requirements. We describe here the implementation of NICER's major subsystems, summarize their performance and calibration, and outline the component-level testing that was successfully applied.

SEXTANT↗
DOE OSTI2023

Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty

Abstract. The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2023

Modeling the Formation and Eruption of Coronal Structures by Linking Data-Driven Magnetofrictional and MHD Simulations for AR 12673

Context .The data-driven and time-dependent modeling of coronal magnetic fields is crucial for understanding solar eruptions. These efforts are complicated by the challenges of finding a balance between physical realism and computing efficiency. One possible technique is to couple two modeling approaches. Aims . Our aim here is to showcase our progress in using time-dependent magnetofrictional model (TMFM) results as input to dynamical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations. However, due to the different evolution processes in these two models, using TMFM snapshots in an MHD simulation is nontrivial. We address these issues, both physically and numerically, discuss the incompatibility of the TMFM output to serve as the initial condition in MHD simulations, and show our methods of mitigating this. The evolution of the flux systems and the cause of the eruption are investigated. Methods . TMFM is a prevalent approach that has proven to be a very useful tool in the study of the formation of unstable structures in the solar corona. In particular, it is capable of incorporating observational data as initial and boundary conditions and requires shorter computational time compared to MHD simulations. To leverage the efficiency of data-driven TMFM and also to simulate eruptive events in the MHD framework, one can apply TMFM up to a certain time before the expected eruption(s) and then proceed with the simulation in the full or ideal MHD regime in order to more accurately capture the eruption process. Results . We show the results of a benchmark test case with a linked TMFM and MHD simulation to study the evolution of NOAA active region 12673. A rise of a twisted flux bundle through the MHD simulation domain is observed, but we find that the rate of the rise and the altitude reached depends on the time of the TMFM snapshot that was used to initialize the MHD simulation and the helicity injected into the system. The analysis suggested that torus instability and slip-running reconnection could play an important role in the eruption. Conclusions . The results show that the linkage of TMFM and zero-β MHD models can be successfully used to model the eruptive coronal magnetic fields.

F. Daei↗
DOE OSTI2024

ARPA-E Grid Optimization (GO) Competition Challenge 2

The ARPA-E Grid Optimization (GO) Competition Challenge 2, from 2020 to 2021, expanded upon the problem posed in Challenge 1 by adding adjustable transformer tap ratios, phase shifting transformers, switchable shunts, price-responsive demand, ramp rate constrained generators and loads, and fast-start unit commitment. Furthermore, Challenge 2 was a maximization problem while Challenge 1 was a minimization problem. Specifically, the economic surplus, defined as the benefit of serving load minus the cost of generation, is being maximized. It was expected that the objective value of a given solution should be positive, representing economic gain, but negative objectives from poor solutions were possible. The two code submission feature of Challenge 1 was maintained. Additionally, Divisions 3 and 4 within the competition permitted on/off switching of transmission lines (Divisions 1 and 2 did not). After the initial release of the Problem Formulation on 7/20/2020, ARPA-E Director Lane Genatowski announced Challenge 2 on 9/12/2020. The final May 31, 2021, version of the Problem Formulation was 97 pages long with 299 equations. The Challenge proceeded with 2 non-prize Events and 2 prize Events. Teams receiving Challenge 1 FOA awards and prize money were required to use the prize money to fund their Challenge 2 efforts (Georgia Institute of Technology, Global Optimal Technology, Inc., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Lehigh University, Northwestern University, Artelys, Columbia, Pearl Street Technologies, Pennsylvania State University, and University of Colorado Boulder). For more information on the competition and challenge 2 see the "GO Competition Challenge 2 Information" resource below. Challenge 1 and Challenge 3 information can be found in the resources linked below.

ACOPF↗
DOE OSTI2026

Polar primary aerosols across the ocean-sea ice-snow-atmosphere interface: From sources to impacts

Primary aerosols play a critical role in polar climate systems, influencing cloud formation, precipitation, radiative balance, and surface energy budgets. This paper provides a comprehensive synthesis of primary aerosol sources, transformation and removal processes, and broader atmospheric impacts in polar regions, emphasizing their links to ocean and sea ice biogeochemistry. These aerosols (including sea salt, primary organic aerosol, and primary biological aerosol particles) originate from marine and cryospheric environments and are emitted through physical processes, such as wave breaking, bubble bursting, and blowing snow. Emission sources include seawater, sea ice, snow, and freshwater from river discharge and glacial runoff. Once airborne, these particles can serve as a chemical reservoir, influencing atmospheric composition and reactivity, and as seeds for cloud droplet and ice crystal formation, influencing cloud microphysics and polar climate. Despite their importance, many of the processes governing primary aerosol emissions and transformations remain poorly constrained. The most pressing knowledge gaps pertain to emission processes, limited spatiotemporal observational coverage, instrumentation constraints, parameterization development, and the integration of interdisciplinary expertise. To improve our understanding of primary aerosol drivers and their response to climate, future research efforts should prioritize strategically coordinated and cross-disciplinary process studies, advancements in measurement technologies and coverage, and close collaboration between modelers and observational scientists to inform and refine model parameterizations. As polar regions continue to undergo profound changes marked by increased precipitation, reduced sea and land ice, freshening oceans, and shifting ecosystem dynamics, characterizing present-day primary aerosol populations is vital. Improved understanding will be essential for anticipating future changes in aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions and their implications for polar and global climate systems.

Aerosol-cloud↗